* From the Arduin, Laffer & Moore Econometrics website…
Arduin, Laffer & Moore Econometrics advises federal, state, & municipal leaders, political candidates, and private sector clients, on economic, fiscal and state policies. We analyze the impacts of policy upon markets, identify trends and opportunities, and inform strategy that optimizes performance.
Our firm operates under the leadership of acclaimed economist Wayne Winegarden; former California, Florida, New York, and Michigan Budget Director Donna Arduin; and the visionary “Father of Supply-Side Economics,” Arthur Laffer.
* Laffer, of course, believes that tax cuts pay for the themselves, and advised Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback…
Everybody knew the tax cuts would cost money; the fiscal note for 2014 estimated that the cuts would cost $800 million in 2014. But the tax cut package was sold as a panacea for all that ails the Kansas economy. Gov. Sam Brownback (R) predicted that the tax cuts would spur economic development, investment, and a lot of job creation. Indeed, Arthur Laffer, who developed the Kansas tax cut plan, practically guaranteed success. But it didn’t work. The Kansas economy is stagnating, the deficit has grown, and the state’s bond ratings have been embarrassingly downgraded.
* Bruce Rauner was asked about Gov. Brownback’s philosophy at a gubernatorial debate this fall…
“I don’t agree with the tax policies that were put in place in Kansas,” Rauner declared in response to Dunn-Thomason’s question. In other words, tax cuts without regard for consequences is not in the cards.
* But Rauner’s transition team has hired Laffer’s partner…
In a sign that Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner wants to shrink state government and reduce taxes, the political newcomer has hired a controversial GOP consultant to help him craft his first budget.
Donna Arduin, who helped prepare budgets for Republican governors in New York, California, Florida and Michigan, was in Springfield last week meeting with officials from various state agencies to discuss state finances, the JG-TC Springfield bureau has learned.
* More…
While Rauner has been mostly silent on specific budget details, Arduin’s track record in other states includes proposals to reduce spending on human service programs. She also has supported privatizing prisons, which is barred under Illinois law. […]
She left as Schwarzenegger’s budget chief after 11 months with many of her initiatives to shrink government left undone.
“She has a complete tin ear with respect to the political ramifications of particular cuts, ” University of California-Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain told the Los Angeles Times in a story published in 2004.
Discuss.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:42 am:
We certainly don’t want anybody advising Rauner on the budget who, you know, might have the first clue about Illinois.
I was upbeat about how Rauner was proceeding. Now, not so much. This is a step backward.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:44 am:
==Arduin’s track record in other states includes proposals to reduce spending on human service programs==
In other words, throw the neediest people under the bus. These kinds of people make me sick.
- walker - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:45 am:
A big strike one.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:45 am:
Let Me Have My Own Way - Fleetwood Mac, enhanced by VanillaMan
Electing me
Was the right thing to do
How can I shake up Springfield?
If I could
Baby I’d honor my word
But how can I
When you won’t do what to do?
Just let me have my own way
Have my own way
We can just pretend it’s a new day
There’s nothing I wouldn’t pay
I’ll tell you why
Everything’s run aground
Taxes are up
That’s all the Dems wanna do
If I could
Baby I’d give you a budget deal
Maybe then
Maybe then you’d believe in me
Just let me have my own way
Have my own way
I can turn this state around
Within the day
Madigan and Cullerton
Want to see me fail
MJM, phones it in,
His ducklings aren’t for sale
My experts tell me
That I can save our world
Cutting taxes and the budget
Is all we have to do
Privatize,
compromise
Baby I can turn it around
Blue skies - budget wise
That’s all that we’ll see
If you let me go my own way
Go my own way
I can make all our state woes
Turn away
Just let me have my own way
Have my own way
I can shake this state up
Without delay
- Spliff - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:46 am:
She sounds perfect to craft a budget with two veto proof majority chambers … good choice! Madigan and Cullerton just might work together after all.
- yikes - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:46 am:
The people of this state are about to learn the hard way the difference between a compassionate conservative and a wall street conservative.
- Pirini Scloroso - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:47 am:
And so it begins….
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:49 am:
Total vetting failure, from Florida earlier this year:
Economic studies by Arduin’s firm “would never pass muster in a peer-reviewed academic journal,” said Carl Davis, a senior analyst with the nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy in Washington, D.C.
“A lot of times, I wouldn’t say that these reports contain outright lies,” Davis said. “There’s selective quotations, uses of statistics and some sleight of hand like that.”
Arduin, who did not return calls and emails seeking comment, holds bachelor’s degrees in public policy and economics from Duke University. In emails to county officials, Arduin clarified that she is not an economist.
- PublicServant - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:51 am:
So much for the theory espoused by some CapFaxers yesterday that Rauner is an Economic Pragmatist. The first firm he hires has “the father of supply-side economics” at its helm, and is the firm that advised Brownback in Kansas on those eminently successful policies. Yeesh!
- A guy... - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:51 am:
Take a breath folks. We’re in the bottom percentile. She’s not an idiot. Every state has it’s own peculiarities. Those will be factored into the formula here. I’m gonna buy some egg nog for y’all. You’re just too much on edge. This can’t surprise anyone who’s paid attention. The sun came up in the east this morning. It will again tomorrow. He’s definitely going to do some things different. With Kansas out of the way, it would seem that would be a helpful experiment to avoid in Illinois. Watch first before getting to twisted up in the game.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:52 am:
Governor Brownback?
Meet our new Governor Bluenose!
- Soccermom - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:52 am:
This is just ridiculous. That experiment was run in Kansas, and we see the horrible results.
There are lots of people in this state who understand fiscal policy and who would be more than willing to help right the ship. Instead, he brings in someone who is guided by ideology rather than evidence-based policy.
God help us.
- Linus - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:53 am:
“Our supply-side approach to the most pressing policy matters of our time promotes the preservation of free enterprise,” the (Arduin, Laffer & Moore) website notes.
I am straining to avoid use of the many expletives that would get me banned for life, here.
- Ray del Camino - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:53 am:
Magic Beans Econometrics.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:53 am:
===“She has a complete tin ear with respect to the political ramifications of particular cuts, ”===
Rauner will face an overwhelming Democratic majority in both chambers, and in some “tin ear” choices that GA might face, the results that Rauner will want won’t see daylight, or if they do, legislative retaliation could very well find its way into some of these equations.
The makeup of Rauner’s legislative hurdles will dictate some decisions, if politics is weighed, as it should be, in the decision process.
How do you think Floor Leaders and Governor’s Office legislative liaisons will react when confronted with these “tough” decisions being made by Rauner, while in the same session, they get whistled in to see the governor to answer why his legislative agenda is floundering.
Now, if a “Jack Franks” or another Democratic House member decides to arbitrarily decide “how veto-proof” the House will be, how often will those “lone wolf” Dems want to cross the line and allow Rauner to dictate policies with a budgetary philosophy that has very little in common with smart political strategy too?
The “tin ear” aspect of a budgetary philosophy in the political prism will put a strain on those Floor Leaders and LLs, and will allow Cullerton and MJM the opportunity to frame any or all cuts in almost any light to make political points.
The “ace in the hole” is Mike “Z”, abd hoping his influence and shaping of the Administration will also include political ramifications and fallout.
This hire by the Transition Team is a “tell”, but it hasn’t told much. Yet.
- Secret Square - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:53 am:
“Laffer, of course, believes that tax cuts pay for the themselves, and advised Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback”
Brownback won reelection even though pre-election polls showed him behind and he was widely expected to lose. Perhaps Rauner is thinking: hey, the guy got reelected so maybe those tax policies weren’t so bad after all…
- Norseman - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:54 am:
Let’s hope this move doesn’t become a laugher!
- A guy... - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:54 am:
PS, and this after those Dem economists have nailed it for the past 6 years. How could anyone argue with your point. Oy.
- AC - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:55 am:
Tax cuts only pay for themselves when the tax rate is at a certain level. The Laffer curve made sense nationally and increased revenue when the top marginal individual income tax rate was reduced from 70% to 28%. I can certainly see how that high of a tax rate stifled growth. Illinois has income taxes lower than many of its neighboring states, and a 3.75% tax rate will stimulate very little additional drowth. A little talked about portion of Reagan’s tax policies is that taxes were increased on those with lower incomes, so it wasn’t just higher growth that increased revenue.
- Cassidy - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:55 am:
It will be refreshing to see the advocates of every higher social welfare costs to be on the defensive. Good public policy often comes from periodic reexamination.
- Buster - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:57 am:
This is scary news from a variety of perspectives as previously noted by commenters. Is ideology going to trump pragmatism, common sense and compassion during Rauner’s reign?
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:57 am:
Still, I wonder if Democrats are secretly hoping Rauner finds the magic beans. This is a blue blue state after all. So Rauner and his crew find the magic beans, make some unpleasant choices, get blamed, and four years or eight years later the Dems get the governor’s chair back, Illinois is again a one-party state, the Dems get to spend all the money…
- Knome Sane (now known as "The Real Sock Puppet") - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:58 am:
Let’s put the church back in the village, shall we. Gov-elect Rauner hired a consultant to advise him on budget matters. While her track record may be debated, with good reason, I didn’t read anywhere in the announcement that the Gov-elect was turning the entire budget sculpting process over to her. She might just be that, an advisor.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:59 am:
@A guy:
I’ve seen this movie before with a guy named Blagojevich. Came in with a bunch of “consultants” who didn’t know a thing about the state budget. They made bad decisions that we are still paying for today. I don’t want to see a repeat of that. I’ll withhold judgement until I see what his budget looks like but right now he’s getting an “F” from me for this choice.
- Adam Smith - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Ah, again the insular, self-important crowd grouses about evil outsiders who can’t possibly understand the deeply nuanced intricacies of Illinois politics and government.
Well the insider crowd has done a crap job of managing the budget, including the numerous honest and highly intelligent people from both parties who have worked on the budget.
The bottom line is we have failed. And simply going back to the same crowd of Illinois government careerists is not likely to yield different results.
Get out your voodoo dolls and pins and start stabbing at everyone who gets appointed, but this sounds a whole lot like people rooting for Rauner to fail. If that is the case, you stand squarely against the best interests of the state and its people. No matter who won the election, we should be trying to find ways to work together, even with evil “outsiders” to get the job done.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Kansas is a mess. not a good sign for Illinois in this hiring.
- DuPage - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Captain Rauner, iceberg ahead!
Rauner: Stand by while I check with my consultant….Rauner: FULL SPEED AHEAD! My consultant says we will smash that thing into a pile of ice cubes!
But Captain Rauner, has your consultant ever seen an iceberg?
Rauner: I know what I am doing! If I didn’t know what I was doing, why would I hire a consultant? Full speed ahead!
- Chicago Publius - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:00 am:
Donna Arduin is not an economist or a budget expert — she is a political idealogue whose unilateral “solutions” to complex problems often prove to be so shrill, misguided, uninformed, dangerous, and impracticable that they gain little or no support. Rauner bringing her onboard is not a good sign. Not a good sign at all.
- Skeptical - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:00 am:
“God help us.”
Seems to me we should have been asking for this help prior to the election. Now, we live with the results of not getting out the vote…
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Do not be alarmed. Misdirection play.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:03 am:
Rauner wants farmers to run Ag. He should make sure he keeps those who farm who are on staff.
- Soccermom - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:03 am:
A guy — nobody is saying that the previous “economists” crafted smart, responsible budget. But dear heaven — when are we going to stop basing state policy on the principle of “Two wrongs make a right”?
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:04 am:
**It will be refreshing to see the advocates of every higher social welfare costs to be on the defensive. **
LOL - you clearly haven’t been around for the past several years.
Advocates of “every higher social welfare costs” have been on the defensive for several years, as those “social welfare” programs have continually been on the chopping block, and have received numerous cuts.
- Anon - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:06 am:
Agree totally with “A Guy.”
Clearly what IL has been doing lately isn’t working. The state is in a fiscal mess, and it lags in job creation. Is doing something different such a radical concept?
Good advice, take a breath, let actual proposals emerge before jumping out the window.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:07 am:
When reading this the Taylor Swift song Shake just kept playing in my mind.
- Del Clinkton - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:07 am:
@cassiday:
I’m sure you’ll support extinction of the downstate jobs program called prisons. I mean, really, a bologna sandwich tosser makes more than a mustard slapper in private enterprise?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:07 am:
===She’s not an idiot. Every state has it’s own peculiarities. Those will be factored into the formula here.===
Hmm. Track record?
===“She has a complete tin ear with respect to the political ramifications of particular cuts, ”===
Seems as though understanding the political while handling the fiscal isn’t a “strong suit”
She’s a transition hire, we’ll see if anything comes of her joining the Administration in any capacity, however, if that “tin ear” refuses to hear the political aspect of the Democratically-controlled GA, that won’t help, no matter the math of the monies, when needing the math of GA votes.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:07 am:
I’m with Demoralized. Throwing the neediest under the bus, especially when the wealthiest are generally having an economic boom time, is disgusting.
We live in times that are living proof that trickle down economics is a failure, both in the wealthy creating middle class prosperity and in tax cuts creating surplus revenues. So what does Rauner do? Double down on this nonsense.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:08 am:
What seems to escape a lot of people when it comes to cuts is many of them require more than just bringing down spending levels on a spreadsheet.
When it comes human services, most of the programs were established by the General Assembly via legislation which spells out what services have to be provided. In order to reduce a program a member of the GA is going to have to sponsor a bill to reduce a program.
Then they get to publically sit in committee and present the bill and stand on their chamber floor speaking to bill and spelling out what they are cutting. Good luck finding a Dem to do that and the GOP has proven when it comes to things like closures, they can’t find a way to push a green button for cuts.
- Aldyth - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:09 am:
**It will be refreshing to see the advocates of every higher social welfare costs to be on the defensive. **
I’ll be sure to tell the guys in my program that serves people with developmental disabilities that they are nothing more than a social welfare cost.
- PublicServant - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:10 am:
@A Guy - The Keynesians have nailed it for the past six years. Pay attention.
- Johnny Utah - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:10 am:
Illinois vs Kansas payrolls recession recovery
Illinois:-2.3%
Kansas: +0.3%
If Illinois had recovered like Kansas did, there would be an additional 162,000 payroll jobs in Illinois today.
Illinois doesn’t exactly make Kansas look like a failed state. It’s not like they’re taking advice from completely failed governors, such as Illinois’ out-going.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:11 am:
===Get out your voodoo dolls and pins and start stabbing at everyone who gets appointed, but this sounds a whole lot like people rooting for Rauner to fail. ===
If the Dopey pivot for the next 2 years here is “rooting for Rauner to fail”, then being so ignorant that you refuse to read what people comment is on you, and not our responsibility to ask y’all to read without playing victims constantly.
Patheticz
- Gooner - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:11 am:
There are two issues here, one of which is a fair attack on the Gov. Elect and one which is not.
First, Bruce Rauner made a fortune by cutting services to people in nursing home. Of course he’s going to cut services. That’s been his history. The idea that people would be angry that Gov. Elect Rauner would cut services is ridiculous. All Illinois voters knew or should have known that he would do so.
Now the Brownback thing is different. Gov. Elect Rauner promised competence. Putting a system in place that has been shown to be a failure is not consistent with his message.
So on that basis, there is room for legitimate anger.
- Scott in Chicago - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:13 am:
I doubt they will throw the truly neediest people under the bus. But they need to weed out the freeloaders and those who abuse the system and throw THEM under the bus…
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:16 am:
@Johnny:
We are talking about the financial state of state government. When it comes to Kansas they kind of tripped and fell down and haven’t managed to get back up yet. I’d prefer not to see an already bad situation in Illinois made worse by somebody who comes from a firm who made the recommendations that put Kansas government in the position it is in now.
If you want to offer completely irrelevant statistics to the topic at hand, be my guest. However, I think it would be more helpful if you actually joined in on the conversation on the topic at hand.
- Del Clinkton - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:16 am:
@scott:
Please describe, specifically, “the truly neediest” from the “freeloaders”.
Be very specific. No hyperbole.
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:17 am:
** they need to weed out the freeloaders and those who abuse the system**
Who exactly are these people? What programs do they get services in?
- Tim Snopes - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:20 am:
Rauner doesn’t need to hire a consultant to suggest budget cuts. He prefers to hire one to deflect criticism. This is what corporate leaders do.
Ultimately though, the elected officials will make the decisions.
Note to Rauner: This is not Wall Street. It’s a democracy.
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:25 am:
So far, none of the neediest here in Illinois that I know of have been thrown under a bus by the Governor-elect. The person he has put in charge of the budget transition represents absolute excellence, both in terms of understanding of the state budget and understanding of the political complexities of presenting and passing a budget.
I’m not shocked that he wants to hear from people who have experience in laying out severe budget cuts, and I suspect he will be hearing from a lot of people with experience in other dimensions of governing. You make better choices after hearing from experts with differing views and experiences.
So far, no harm, and therefore, no foul.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:26 am:
Carry On Our Wayward State - Kansas, enhanced by VanillaMan
Carry on our wayward state
Just prepare to meet your fate
Lay your weary head and cry
Kansas learned it too late
Kansas rose above the noise and confusion
Cut back all their taxes to create an illusion
They cut ever deeper, but they cut too deep!
They soon realized that Laffer was a blind man
And their budget was lead by a mad man
They heard that conservatives were dreaming
Far too late they heard them say -
Go ahead and cut some more
The more we cut, the more the more!
We’re certain our budget isn’t dead
So let’s cut some more!
AH!
Masquerading as a man with a reason
Governor Brownback was the man of the season
And he claimed to be a wise man
Well, it sure means that he didn’t know.
In our state of crippled economics
Lead astray by conservative tax comics
We set a course for winds of fortune
But now we know we were led astray!
Go beyond, Oh, Prairie State
Whatever you do, don’t suffer our fate!
This was once our Land of Oz
Please avoid our budget faux pas!
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:33 am:
Arduin is not an economist and doesn’t claim to be one. She’s a lobbyist and an ideology marketer. What do you want to hear, we’ll write you a report.
She has a track record and it’s pretty weak. I don’t expect she’ll gain much traction here.
- Arizona Bob - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:35 am:
If Rauner has shown anything from his business and political career it’s been that he’s keenly atuned to the politcs of perception, and he KNOWS who has the power to fix things in Springfield, and how to negotiate with them.
This is just a bone he’s throwing to the conservatives in Illinois, as well as creating hard line “cut” position from which he can negotiate something politically possible.
It seems that Ms Arduin can idenify the indefensible waste, corruption and inefficiency in Illinois government,and give some ammo to Rauner for negotiation.
Prognosis? She’ll expose a lot of the things that give Illinois the reputation as the worst run state in the nation, Rauner will put out just enough of it to get crooks and cheats on the defensive, and perhaps have them looking at triage for what crooked spending they want to sustain and that they need to dump.
My personal opinion is that Madigan would like to get rid of a lot of low political value spending because the political fallout for him when the wheels truly come off in Springfield is about the only threat that worries him.
Madigan knows things have to change, and Illinois government,and the local districts they subsidize, have to get better at what they do.
His challenge is finding the chaffe he can dump now so that the apocalypse doesn’t come under his watch. People receiving welfare don’t keep him in power. Juiced in contractors and patronage employees do.
It’ll be interesting to see whose ox gets gored when Madigan is the Bull.
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:36 am:
Meh, it’s one hire to “help craft a budget.” It just depends on who else will be in on the budget crafting….
- Andy S. - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:37 am:
The original concept behind the Laffer curve was that tax cuts could increase revenue if they increase the tax base enough to offset the rate cut. When the highest marginal federal income tax rate back in the 1950’s and 1960’s was over 90%, while at the same time there were many loopholes and exemptions that led to hardly anyone actually paying at that rate, the Laffer curve made some sense.
The problem is that the math cannot possibly work at the state level, because the state rate gets added on to an underlying federal tax rate (not to mention payroll taxes). Consider as an example a reduction in the state income tax rate from 5% to 4%. In order for the state to generate the same revenue the tax base would need to increase 25% (5% x old base = 4% x new base; a little algebra reveals that new base/old base = 5%/4% = 1.25). But how on earth can you increase the tax base by 25% when the TOTAL marginal tax rate a typical middle class Illinoisan now pays is probably around 37.65% (25% federal income tax rate + 7.65% SS/Medicare + 5% state income tax), and this would only fall to 36.65% with the 1% drop in the state rate? Can anyone seriously suggest that some combination of people working more hours and earning higher incomes, and/or people moving into Illinois (or not moving out) would raise the tax base by 25%?
By the way, as I have argued before, the same underlying reasoning can explain why the state’s police powers excuse to cut pensions is rubbish. If we were to go in the other direction, and raise the income tax rate to 6%, the tax base would have to fall by 16.67% or more in order for the tax increase to not generate additional revenue. No serious economist who examined the data would conclude that this would happen, in either the short run or the long run. So the bottom line is that the state could, if it chose, generate revenues to pay its pensions and other contractual obligations.
- LBJ - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:38 am:
Interesting article on Bownback’s budget debacle in Rolling Stone:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-kansas-tea-party-disaster-20141023
- Carhart Representative - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:39 am:
Johnny Utah, the problem is the big tax cuts went into place in 2012, you’re going back to 2008.
From October of last year to October of this year Kansas has shown 1.9% job growth and massive budget shortfalls that would make an Illinois politician blush. In that same time, Illinois has 2.6% job growth.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:44 am:
I have a disabled relative on public assistance, and this person lives in deep poverty. We help this person in different ways every month to avoid the bottom, such as starvation and not being able to pay for basic needs.
I know that there are people on public aid who lie about their income and assets, or household composition (many are conservatives also), but many people on public aid are truly poor. We as individuals, society and government can come up with ways to help people get off of public assistance, but a plan in which the wealthiest are spared while the poorest bear the cuts is just unacceptable to many of us. That’s what we’re asking for with a Brownback type of plan.
- ZC - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:45 am:
Reserving judgment until I see Rauner’s first budget.
No particular need to speculate anymore. He’s not going anywhere, and Rauner cannot conceal what he really thinks for much longer. We’ll know in a month or three.
I had to snort though at “acclaimed economist Wayne Winegarden.” Acclaimed in his own mind, perhaps? He has a PhD from George Mason. He has no academic position, no major awards or within-the-field prestige I could locate. I went searching for his CV of academic publications and found that he is “the author of several policy and academic papers.” Several papers! This guy is clearly an economic stud.
- Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:49 am:
Her job is to scare everyone into the tax increase.
- MikeMacD - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:55 am:
I’m having difficulty ridding my mind of the name George W. Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:56 am:
===Her job is to scare everyone into the tax increase.===
After all the hashing out we are doing here, that observation might be one of the most thoughtful and true of all our bunch.
“My transition team’s consultant has given me deep cuts to consider. Rasing revenues can prevent these cuts…”
Definitely something to consider with this transition team hire…
- A guy... - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 11:57 am:
Really, save some of the energy. There are going to be a myriad of appointments and hires that will be attacked before they even touch the soil here. Such is the nature of transitions. I’ve never been to a place where so many successful people are referred to as idiots, sellouts, evil, etc. Even logic would tell you that can’t be true.
This whole “throw (pick a group or person) under the bus is utterly trite now. Let’s see what this team produces before playing “Taps” before playing “Reveille” This guy’s approach is going to be ideologically different going in than what we’ve been used to. He did not keep that secret. We’ll survive.
- walker - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:05 pm:
==”No harm, no foul”==
==”just a bone for the conservatives”==
==”I don’t expect she’ll gain much traction here”==
It seems many of the commenters here are hoping for Rauner to succeed, as I am, and minimizing this one move.
Boy, I hope you are right.
The biggest risk is if he really believes this Laffer nonsense whole hog. As noted above, it had some economic power when marginal rates were in the 70s and 80s, not at 4%.
- east central - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:17 pm:
Could he be trying to maintain good relations with the right edge of his party?
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:18 pm:
@LBJ, now that Rolling Stone has ruined a young woman’s credibility, I’m thinking their cred should be in more doubt. besides, they gave me way too much Matt Taiibi during 2008 and he was/is vile.
- Soccermom - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:21 pm:
Schnorf — who is leading Rauner’s budget team? can’t find it in a first pass on the google? (Can’t believe I missed it.)
- How Ironic - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:25 pm:
YES!! What we need is more Kansas in Illinois. This just out today in the news:
http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2014/dec/09/brownback-announces-280-million-allotment-cuts/
“TOPEKA — Gov. Sam Brownback’s budget office announced a plan Tuesday to fill a projected $280 million shortfall in the current fiscal year’s budget.
The plan calls for sweeping $201 million out of various funds into the state general fund while cutting 4 percent out of the last six months of the fiscal year for selected agencies.
It also calls for halting $40.7 million of state contributions into the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System.”
Yes…if we could only get back to the days of Fund Sweeps, and not paying the pension obligation….
- Federalist - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:36 pm:
A tricky balance with having so much taxation that it actually hurts business and thus does eventually hurt government revenue and the opposite extreme of saying just cut taxes and the government will get its money back and more.
Again, a very tricky balance and it can depend on many factors that are unknown to the
‘dismal scientists.’
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:39 pm:
==who is leading Rauner’s budget team==
Tim Nuding is the guy in the trenches. He’s a good, smart guy.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:51 pm:
—
im Nuding is the guy in the trenches. He’s a good, smart guy.
—
Then who is this goofball Arduin? And why is someone who helped create an economic meltdown even part of the team?
Is she advising Nuding? Or it she simply a nod to the hardright goofballs that kicked in their cash for Rauner’s campaign?
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:57 pm:
I’ve got no answer for why the Gov-elect may have brought her in - subterfuge, a nod to the right’s donors, scare tactics, to provide actual budget cutting advice? Could be all of the above.
But, I do have a close friend who worked with her and Jeb in Florida. When I told her about the hire, she replied, “Smart, but somewhat weird. Hard core conservative. She will cut the [excrement] out of that budget. The libs aren’t gonna be happy.” I’d call this friend a hard core conservative. If she’s calling someone else one, whew.
- vole - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:01 pm:
The US economy reached its peak period of growth when personal tax rates and government spending and investment were at their highest. When personal incomes were expanding at their greatest rates before the dawn of Reagan.
It is very unlikely that this team of Rauner’s will look at the greatest problem with our state’s debt and the greatest roadblock to economic growth — the growing inequality in the US and the stagnation of middle class incomes. There is a great load of untapped wealth in IL among the upper class but it is very unlikely that any of that wealth will be tapped to help solve our dire budgetary problems and debt. Trickle up will remain the operating paradigm with these oligarchs.
- Hit or Miss - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:12 pm:
Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner has said more than once that he wants to reduce taxes. In addition he faces a need cover a budget ‘gap’, and the need for billions for funding the state pension systems. From the Rauner perspective, substantial spending cuts appear to be the answer. His choice for a budget advisor looks to be in keeping with what appears to me to be his plan for the next four years. Now if he can only convince MJM and the GA to go along with the plan.
- Newsclown - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:15 pm:
And today’s youtube clip to go with this thread comes from Ferris Buehler’s Day Off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxPVyieptwA
- Jorge - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:23 pm:
She’d be better served at IPI but I digress.
- CapnCrunch - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:31 pm:
“@A Guy - The Keynesians have nailed it for the past six years. Pay attention.”
Yes, pay attention, we don’t want anybody to derail this gravy train we’ve been riding the last six years.
- Jorge - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:41 pm:
Crunch, what have the Hayek and Rand crowds accomplished? Oh wait they caused the economic collapse of 2008 and further exacerbated the worldwide economic turnaround by adhering to austerity and smoke and mirrors economic approaches.
- Millie K. - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:44 pm:
Governor Quinn did very little to help the disabled except give his pals contracts and listen to people who thought it was entirely ethical and moral to “bus” out people from the Jacksonville Developmental Center like they were cattle. The same was planned (testified to in FEderal Court) for the Murray Center residents in Centralia until Judge Aspen stepped in and stopped it. Don’t tell any of those people how “compassionate” Governor Quinn is/was…..what a joke!
- MrJM - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:47 pm:
“They are who we thought they were!”
– MrJM
- The new William j Kelly - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 1:58 pm:
It is great to see Schwarzenegger back on top!
- bored now - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:00 pm:
i know rich does like illinois issues “nationalized” but there is lots of research out there that demonstrated that this is exactly what is happening in most, if not all, states around the country. even through we know, from a rational perspective, that budget and tax cuts do not *necessarily* or *inevitably* lead to increased tax revenues (economics still being more art than science, with economists feeling free to ignore the math if it doesn’t support their beliefs), republican ideology demands them. if ardent republicans like dave stockman (an actual budget expert) cannot stand up to the prevailing belief structure, then a neophyte like rauner has no chance of doing so.
i believe that illinois is different, but these walls are crashing down on the political parties in the state, and i don’t think rauner has madigan’s concrete will, dominance or determination to keep the national trends out of illinois…
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:00 pm:
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 12:18 pm:
@LBJ, now that Rolling Stone has ruined a young woman’s credibility, I’m thinking their cred should be in more doubt. besides, they gave me way too much Matt Taiibi during 2008 and he was/is vile.
She helped them. All accusations should be fully investigated.
Rolling Stone may have hurt it’s credibility but read the article on Kansas before you judge.
- PublicServant - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:10 pm:
===Yes, pay attention, we don’t want anybody to derail this gravy train we’ve been riding the last six years.
===
Too late. The party of No repubs in congress already have.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:12 pm:
Reading Rolling Stones for news beyond music is like reading Bon Appetite magazine for news about the college football season.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:30 pm:
Millie you have often made this claim the Gov bused people out of JDC. You are either lying and know it, or you have no clue as to what you are talking about. All I can say is, prove your statement or stop making it.
- Arizona Bob - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:38 pm:
=Crunch, what have the Hayek and Rand crowds accomplished? Oh wait they caused the economic collapse of 2008 and further exacerbated the worldwide economic turnaround by adhering to austerity and smoke and mirrors economic approaches.=
Revisionist history. The collapse was caused by bubbling the US real estate market by a system of quasi-governmental agencies (Freddie, Ginny and Fannie, in cahoots with the Fed and a bevy or “mortgage brokers”), and the gaming of this system by the Rahms and the TBTF banks that lept the ponzie scheme going on a few years too long.
The problem was that Bush and the Congress made credit cheap after 9/11 to prevent economic collapse. By 2006, Bush wanted to end the “derivatives” and cheap money policy that rewarded banks and brokers lending to uncredit worthy buyers adn normalize interest. By that time, however, Barney Frank and Pelosi took over banking and the House and let the situation develop into a crisis.
Folks like Rahmm became “bonus multi-millionaires” at Fannie and Freddie by keeoing the ponzie scheme going.
Bernahnke was a student of the Depression, and he knew he had to do anything he could to prevent the freezing of credit. This meant the “giveaway” to the banks of essentially free liquidity that went to corporate buybacks instead of business expansion, which in turn crushed the middle class and ensured low inflation through keeping unemployment high and labor participation at three deacde old lows. Obama kept things down by Obamacare and tax increases that had the effect of pushinig the economy’s “drowning man” head under water.
Want to help the middle class? Change policy to make it worthwhile grow business rather than playing finacial games that only reward management and speculators. Lessen the tax burden on entrepreneurs so that starting a new amll business is worth the time, money and risk once again.
Most of all, repair Obamacare to make it what it always should have been; an insurer of “last resort” pool for low income people and those with pre-existing conditions without the mandates, taxes and patronage driven overhead of that dysfunctional system.
The solutions are there for growth and prosperity. All we need to do is remove the liberal and corrupt conservative obstacles to achieving them.
- Black Ivy - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 2:53 pm:
And so it begins…and it must…
- Jorge - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 3:12 pm:
Bob, that’s the revisionist “I hate anything that I don’t agree with answer.” Thanks for proving my point.
- Rod - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 4:45 pm:
As expected a consultant right out of the Republican Governor’s Association playbook. There are no surprises so far.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 6:30 pm:
Did Rauner invite buffoons & crackpots to run any of his companies?
- How Ironic - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 6:43 pm:
@ Carl Nyberg “Did Rauner invite buffoons & crackpots to run any of his companies?”
Short answer…yes. Of course he distanced himself from any of them the moment something went south. Remember, he’s a ‘hands on guy’ unless things go sideways. Then he suddenly gets amnesia and can’t comment.
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Dec 9, 14 @ 7:52 pm:
Upon further review, Arduin and Laffer have been advocates of expanding and raising sales and service taxes to replace income taxes.
The Tribbies have been up on that hobby horse, too, but they can’t count to twenty without taking their shoes off.
Doesn’t make any sense, of course, if your goal is to encourage economic activity and growth.
If you make a $100K at a 3.75 percent income tax, you’re still going to bust your hump to try to make a million at 3.75 percent.
But if you start adding taxes on to every purchase and service, maybe you just do without or do it yourself, and that economic activity is gone.
It’s a nasty, regressive concept.
- Yobagoya - Wednesday, Dec 10, 14 @ 12:50 am:
To the person who referenced a great article in Rolling Stone- great timing.