Question of the day
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Setup…
Gov. Bruce Rauner has tapped an SIU graduate and Johnson County native to head his communications department.
Vienna native Lance Trover, who served as senior communications adviser for Rauner’s successful gubernatorial campaign, has been named the governor’s communications director.
His selection comes as no surprise to former Gov. Jim Edgar’s press secretary Mike Lawrence, who taught Trover in a “Politics in the Media” class at SIU and mentored him while serving as director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
“He was an outstanding student,” Lawrence said. “I knew then that he would have a bright future if he decided to go into politics.”
I’ve known Lance since he was first brought up to the bigs by Team Topinka.
* The Question: Your advice for Mr. Trover?
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Unsolicited advice from all sides
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* George Ryan has some advice for the new governor…
Ryan… said in a telephone interview that he often made a habit of meeting with legislative leaders — sometimes every day — to identify their needs and concerns.
“Sometimes, Mike [Madigan] and I would just agree to disagree and still get done what we needed to do,” Ryan said. “We didn’t play games like some do today.”
Rauner, Ryan said, has “got to be careful.”
“It’s too early to be trying to outsmart each other,” he said.
* Jim Nowlan has an idea for the Executive Mansion…
A fan of performing arts, I suggest weekly cocktail events at the mansion, to include a break in the socializing and deal-making for 30-45 minutes in the ballroom to hear accessible musical programs by small aggregations from Illinois’ many fine college and university music departments. I think, for example, of the excellent Camerata Woodwind Quintet from Western Illinois University, the lilting sounds of the Caribbean steel drum band from the distinguished University of Illinois music school, and the great big band jazz program at Northern Illinois.
* Some folks want to drag Rauner into an old murder investigation…
A retired Illinois State Police master sergeant is adamant the decades-old slaying of a Iowa college student can still be solved, and he wants Gov. Bruce Rauner to help make it happen. […]
If Rauner takes the lead, McCarthy said he’s convinced the mystery will be solved.
“At the very least we could satisfy them that everything was done. They know for sure that everything wasn’t done,” he said.
* And The Southern wants Rauner to appoint a qualified professional to run the DuQuoin State Fair…
The region will miss Shannon Woodworth and his passion for the fair. We’ll miss his enthusiasm. And we think the manner in which he was terminated should give all of us a less than favorable impression of our new Governor’s modus operandi.
But having dispatched Woodworth, Rauner now has a wonderful opportunity to show residents of Illinois the business acumen that he touted during the campaign.
Mr. Governor, it’s time to hire the right Du Quoin State Fair manager.
Thoughts?
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In defense of Springfield
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Natasha wonders how the Rauners will react to Springfield’s living conditions…
On the eve of the inauguration, two buses dropped off Rauner guests at a downtown hotel after a scheduled event concluded.
They streamed into a nearby bar. The place was packed. I looked around at all the high-rollers and thought, “man, it’s like printing money in here.”
What came next?
“Last call!” Faces looked stunned.
Was it their liquor license?
The bartender said simply, no, it was 10:45 p.m. and the place closed at 11. That was that.
The next night, I saw the sneer from a server at my hotel restaurant. Four reporters who were working during normal dinner hours arrived hungry, and initially relieved – there were several tables of people seated inside dining.
“Sorry, we stop serving at 9.”
It was 9:03 p.m.
I won’t use names here, but the first establishment is infamous (in my book, at least) for its lousy management - particularly the way it under-staffs the place. Even so, it was a Sunday night. Plenty of big city restaurants close down early on Sundays.
I’ve never had a problem at the second venue, but there’s another restaurant right around the corner which stays open until 10.
And I have plenty of complaints about Chicago restaurants, bars, whatever that I won’t go into here.
* I chose to move back to Springfield from Chicago several years ago. I really miss the culture (I was a Joffrey season ticket holder back then), I miss the restaurants and the music and the shopping and the people.
But despite all of that, and despite the fact that I find Chicago superior to Springfield in most ways, I manage quite well here. You have to look for the music (the Buckhart Tavern has a monthly event that’s not to be missed, for instance) and the various eclectic “scenes” (the punks on the East Side have been slamming it for years) but they’re there. It’s also important to have friends who aren’t directly involved in politics. They keep me sane and were a big reason I moved back here. Also, the money I paid for my house on one acre by the lake is about equal to what it would cost to buy a small two-bedroom condo near the Loop.
Springfield isn’t Chicago. It will never be Chicago. That doesn’t mean Springfield can’t learn a thing or ten from the big city. Springfield has a long way to go to improve itself, for sure. And the Rauners may indeed find themselves a bit bored at times, although I don’t expect them to be in town more than three or four days per week on average.
* I don’t think I’m speaking too far out of school when I admit that I brought up some concerns about Springfield with Monique Garcia when she told me last week that she was moving to Springfield from Chicago. But Monique is much younger than me, and if you’ve ever met her, you know that she’s not your usual Springfield type (and that’s not meant as a slam to either side by any means, I’m just sayin…). But she was really looking forward to the move and we have several mutual “non political” friends, so she was perfectly happy. And if Monique can thrive here, pretty much anyone can.
In other words, one horribly run restaurant and one snotty (or tired, or short-staffed) maître d’ does not a bad town make.
* Try to be helpful in comments instead of hateful, please. Thanks.
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Today’s quotable
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Bruce Rauner on his $20 million campaign fund…
Rauner called using his campaign fund, which also could help bolster supportive legislators facing political risky votes, “an issue of freedom of speech in politics.”
“The voters need to be informed about the issues and what’s going on. The voters need to understand my personal view of the issues and the agenda. The folks who might have a different point of view are entitled to their views as well, but we’ve got to get our message to the voters and to the citizens, the taxpayers, the families, the working families who are suffering and hurting in Illinois,” Rauner said.
“It’s not just two years until the next election. There’s a process of communicating with other people of the state so they understand what’s going on and why the actions that we’re taking are being done,” he said. “The reality is we’ve got to (make) some tough decisions in the next six months. Really tough. I’m not going to like it. But you know what? I’ve got to do what I think is right for the long run.”
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I tried to warn you
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Back on May 28th, I did a back of the envelope estimate for subscribers of the Fiscal Year 2016 budget hole and came up with almost a $6 billion deficit plus a couple billion more dollars in new unpaid bills. That was before the pension systems revised their state revenue needs upward by almost a billion dollars. So, I was pretty close…
Illinois’ fiscal woes are significantly deeper and more serious than generally realized, with the state facing a $9 billion operating deficit in the fiscal year that begins July 1.
That’s the horrific bottom line of a report released late today by researchers at the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs, a study that may raise the eyebrows even of Gov. Bruce Rauner, who has been warning of huge financial problems ahead.
The conclusion: The actual deficit is about twice what is commonly reported, with the hole in the current fiscal 2015 budget not $2 billion to $3 billion but $6 billion, and rising to a projected $9 billion in fiscal 2016 and hitting $14 billion by fiscal 2026, assuming no changes in law or spending practices.
The report says the fiscal hole is so big that even fully reversing the income tax cut that took effect Jan. 1 would close “only about half” the gap projected for the next several years. Starting this year, the individual income tax rate went from 5 percent to 3.75 percent, and the corporate levy from 9.5 percent to 7.75 percent.
The budget they passed last May wiped out all progress and put us in a nighmarish fiscal position.
The full report is here.
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Long leaving Statehouse beat
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bernie…
There’s a big change coming in the Statehouse pressroom, as RAY LONG, 56, who has been Chicago Tribune bureau chief there since 1998, will soon take a Chicago-based job as part of that paper’s investigative watchdog team.
Long had been with The Associated Press at the Statehouse for three years before joining the Tribune. A native of Winchester, he had interned with the Alton Telegraph in 1981 when it still had a Statehouse bureau and as he was getting his master’s degree with the public affairs reporting program at what is now the University of Illinois Springfield. […]
Long has also been president of the Illinois Legislative Correspondents Association — the organization of Statehouse reporters — since 2006. […]
Taking over the Trib’s Statehouse bureau will be MONIQUE GARCIA, 30, a daughter of Air Force veterans who was born in Germany, graduated high school in Belleville, got her journalism degree from Southern Illinois University-Carbondale and was Long’s intern when getting her master’s at UIS in 2007. She’s regularly covered major government events in Springfield as she has worked for the Tribune and has been based at the James R. Thompson Center in Chicago.
“It’s a great, interesting time for the state and for the beat,” Garcia said.
Monique will most definitely liven up this beat. She’s a solid reporter and a whole lot of fun to be around.
* From Ray’s Facebook page…
How about we do a congratulatory caption contest featuring two “presidents”?
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Rauner taketh away, giveth
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Ten weeks after the Illinois election, Gov. Bruce Rauner might have finally ended the campaign Friday by rescinding seven executive orders that his defeated opponent issued in his final week in office.
Rauner - by executive order - canceled action taken by ex-Gov. Pat Quinn, including three decrees the Democrat announced Monday, his final day in office.
They included requiring governors to disclose income tax returns by May and commanding state vendors to pay employees $10 an hour, instead of the current minimum wage of $8.25. […]
[Rauner spokesman Lance Trover] said “numerous” social service providers told Rauner’s office that $10-an-hour wages would mean less help for vulnerable clients. Voters overwhelmingly approved raising the wage to $10 in an advisory election question.
* From the EO…
WHEREAS, the taxpayers of Illinois elected a new Governor on November 4, 2014, who would reform state government and serve the public’s interest; and
WHEREAS, between January 5 and January 12, 2015, in his last eight days in office, the outgoing Governor issued seven Executive Orders that were not wholly motivated by serving in the public’s interest; and
THEREFORE, I, Bruce Rauner, Governor of Illinois, by virtue of the executive authority vested in me by Section 8 of Article V of the Constitution of the State of Illinois, do hereby order that Executive Order Numbers 15-01, 15-02, 15-03, 15-04, 15-05, 15-06, and 15-07 be revoked and rescinded, effective immediately upon the filing of this Executive Order with the Secretary of State.
* Executive orders are rarely rescinded, but much of what Quinn did overstepped his bounds. You will recall that even Quinn’s fellow Democrat Senate President John Cullerton had a problem with some of them…
Cullerton suggested some of the executive orders Quinn issued may have exceeded his executive authority, pointing specifically to two dealing with immigration.
“There was a couple he did on immigration that exceeded his authority,” Cullerton said. “So we’re going to put legislation in, as we have numerous times. We’ve rejected Gov. Quinn’s executive orders three or four times in the last six years. What you do then, is, if it’s a good idea, you put a new bill in and pass the new bill.”
Both of those EO’s just went way too far.
* Even the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights didn’t make much of a fuss…
ICIRR urges Governor Rauner to work with us to revisit the issues addressed by Governor Quinn’s executive orders. We encourage Governor Rauner to identify how state agencies can support immigrants applying for the Obama Administration’s Deferred Action programs, which he called “a great start.” We also look forward to working with the Governor on issues involving local and state police entanglement in immigration enforcement, which undermines police-community relations and tears apart immigrant families. We urge Governor Rauner to continue the work of preceding governors, both Republican and Democrat, to make Illinois a immigrant welcoming state.
Quinn was barely relevant as governor and he’s far less so now. But he’s still campaigning…
For his part, Quinn offered “no apologies,” saying Rauner’s actions were “obviously directed at me personally.”
“The action of Bruce Rauner today to rescind these, I think, very necessary executive orders for the common good, I think is self-serving and anti-reform, and he ought to be ashamed of himself,” Quinn said.
* Meanwhile…
Governor Bruce Rauner signed Executive Order 15-12 [on January 19th] designed to help bring more economic opportunities to minorities and veterans.
“Illinois is an incredibly diverse state, and we benefit from that diversity,” Gov. Rauner said. “But the unemployment rate for minorities and veterans is way too high. This Executive Order will help reveal some of the causes and identify ways to solve this injustice.”
Executive Order 15-12 orders state agencies to require every labor organization, contractor or subcontractor that is party to a state contract to obtain and report within thirty days the total number of minority and veteran participants in any offered training program as well as the minority and veteran participation rate in said programs.
CMS is also ordered to conduct a thorough review of all goals, preferences and considerations provided under state law and regulations concerning the hiring and training of veterans and the awarding of contracts to veteran-owned businesses. CMS is also to study the participation of minority-owned and veteran-owned businesses’ ability to obtain opportunities in the State of Illinois. The goal of the study is to identify any disparity in awards and make recommendations to fix those differences.
“We need to ensure jobs and business opportunities are open to everyone, but especially those who serve our country or are underrepresented in the economy,” Gov. Rauner added. “I will be a governor who champions our veterans and historically-disadvantaged communities. This Executive Order will help give my administration the tools to do exactly that.”
The Legislative Black Caucus and the Latino Caucus have fought hard for decades to get more minorities into union apprenticeship programs and to get them their fair share of state contracts. So, needless to say, this will be seen as a major plus for Rauner…
Talk is cheap, however. We’ll see what Rauner actually does.
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* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Gov. Bruce Rauner did something the other day that I’ve never before seen: He attended a half-dozen inauguration parties for members of the Illinois General Assembly.
This just doesn’t happen in Springfield. Governors tend to avoid afterhours playtime, when lobbyists and politicians might use a social setting to inappropriately corner the state’s chief executive on some issue or another.
But Rauner has pledged to get to know legislators, and they were clearly impressed when he showed up at their events—particularly Democrats. In a way, his attendance validated them.
After hitting the party circuit, Rauner took four rank-and-file GOP legislators out to dinner at Augie’s Front Burner, across the street from the Old State Capitol. None of them has much power, so imagine their surprise at the invitation.
Legislating is about more than just what is in a bill. It’s also about building personal relationships with the players. A “soft” opponent to a bill often can be turned around if he or she has a relationship with a sponsor. Even a “hard” opponent sometimes can be moved based on a personal plea.
So, attending some parties and taking some low-level lawmakers out to dinner might not sound like much to outsiders, but Rauner scored some major Brownie points with legislators. It looks as though he will keep on doing it.
Go read the whole thing before commenting, please. Thanks.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
A solid majority of Illinoisans wants newly inaugurated Gov. Bruce Rauner to find common ground with the Democratic legislative majority rather than be confrontational, a new poll finds. However, most aren’t confident that the state’s leaders can avoid gridlock and a majority believes the Democrats will be to blame.
“Do you think Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner should try to solve the state’s problems by working to find common ground with the Democratic-controlled legislature, or should he take a more confrontational approach with the Democrats in trying to solve this state’s many problems?” 1,026 registered voters were asked by We Ask America on January 15th.
An overwhelming 67 percent said they want Rauner to find common ground, while 22 percent said he should take a more confrontational approach. Another 6 percent said he should do both and 5 percent were unsure.
An almost unanimous 84 percent of Democrats and a strong 63 percent of independents wanted him to find common ground, while 76 percent of African-Americans and 67 percent of whites said the same.
Every demographic favored the common ground approach, although only a 49 percent plurality of Republicans did so, as opposed to 36 percent who wanted a more confrontational approach from the newly inaugurated GOP governor.
Next question: “Now we would like to know how confident you are that Gov. Rauner can avoid gridlock with the Democratic controlled House and Senate.”
Considering Illinois’ sorry history and the gridlock caused by divided government in our nation’s capital, just 31 percent of Illinoisans were confident that gridlock cold be avoided, while 54 percent said they were not confident. The most “confident” group was Republicans, but even they were outnumbered 46-39 by Republicans who said they weren’t confident.
I think you might get a higher confidence level for compromise at the Statehouse, particularly among folks who have experienced progress under divided government in the past. Divided government rarely accomplishes sweeping changes, mainly because the parties are at odds on some issues, particularly social issues. But, so far at least, Springfield has a much better track record than Washington, DC, which has a structural bias toward do-nothingness.
“Finally, if Illinois government gets mired in gridlock, who do you think will likely be the cause of the gridlock?” the pollster asked.
A 52 percent majority pointed their collective finger at the Democrats, while just 20 percent figured the Republican governor would be the cause and another 20 percent said “all of them.”
More specifically, 30 percent said they thought House Speaker Michael Madigan would be to blame, 3 percent said Senate President John Cullerton would likely be the problem and 19 percent said it would be Madigan and Cullerton together.
Even a 42 percent plurality of Democrats said their own party leaders would be to blame if the state crashes into the gridlock wall. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3 percent.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by We Ask America on January 14th had Gov. Rauner’s approval rating at 52 percent, with just 23 percent disapproving. Speaker Madigan’s numbers were almost the exact reverse, with 26 percent approving versus 55 percent disapproving.
And that’s not the only Democratic deficit.
The Democratic legislative leaders spent down their reserves during last year’s campaign, and ended 2014 with a combined total of $2.8 million in their respective campaign bank accounts.
Normally, that wouldn’t be too bad. But not after Gov. Rauner dumped $20 million into his campaign coffers before the year ended. That gives him an advantage of better than 7-1.
Rauner has said he will use the money to communicate his message with voters and support his legislative allies. But lots of Springfield folks are wondering who’s going to get whacked by that cash mountain.
And for the first time in memory, the Illinois Republican Party ended a year with more than twice as much cash on hand than Madigan’s Democratic Party of Illinois: $566K for the ILGOP and $215K for DPI. That advantage is mostly due to contributions from Rauner himself.
If you were wondering why people like me believe Speaker Madigan will hold his fire for quite a while, all you have to do is look at the results from the above two polls and that cash disadvantage. Speaker Madigan knows he and his party will be the fall guy in any war. Rauner will have to take the first shot - and maybe the second and third.
And Madigan had better go out there and raise some more money.
Subscribers have full crosstabs.
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