Rookie mistakes
Monday, Mar 2, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Gov. Bruce Rauner hasn’t been on the job for even two months, and the spring legislative session isn’t scheduled to end until the last day in May. Lots and lots of things can happen between now and then.
But I’d been hearing for a while that House Speaker Michael Madigan already was predicting that the spring legislative session would lapse into overtime and that the Illinois General Assembly could wind up spending the entire summer stuck in Springfield trying to pass a budget and dealing with other issues.
So one evening, I purposely bumped into Madigan, who was sitting in a quiet corner of a Springfield restaurant.
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please.
* And here’s my weekly syndicated newspaper column…
A rookie mistake has led to some big problems.
House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton both believed that Gov. Bruce Rauner would ask to postpone the scheduled Feb. 18 budget address.
The current fiscal year’s outlook was so incredibly dire (by the Democrats’ own making), that the veteran Democratic leaders figured Rauner would want to first tackle that problem before moving on to the mess in next fiscal year’s budget, which begins July 1.
Rauner declined, declaring that a deadline was a deadline.
He should’ve asked for a delay.
Rauner claimed during his budget address that a deal on the current fiscal year’s problem was just “days away.” Madigan agreed with the governor’s prediction immediately after the speech.
In reality, though, the governor’s address undercut his negotiating stance so badly that Cullerton told Reuters two days later that the negotiations had gone completely off the rails.
The problem is very real and twofold.
First, Democratic legislators were open to giving the governor wide authority to move money around in this fiscal year’s budget to patch the gaping holes that they themselves caused last year when they passed the monster after failing to come to terms with the expiring income tax hike.
But then Rauner revealed that he wanted to do pretty much exactly the same thing in the coming year’s budget as this year’s, and the bitter pill of those cuts woke legislators up to some very harsh realities.
By now, you know the litany. Slashing municipal revenue sharing in half, eliminating a $165 million state heating assistance program funded by utility ratepayers, cutting higher education funding by 31 percent, seriously chopping Medicaid reimbursements to hospitals, pharmacies and nursing homes, not to mention the long list of cuts to relatively tiny social service programs added by individual legislators over the years.
Democrats reacted by saying they might be willing to allow Rauner to do some of that this fiscal year, but letting him do it again next fiscal year would be dangerously close to making those drastic cuts permanent.
Second, Rauner failed to even mention the possibility of new revenues during his address. By law, the governor cannot base a budget proposal on revenues that don’t yet exist under state statute. But there’s nothing in the statute books barring him from at least mentioning a few revenue options that he could live with.
For example, Rauner said repeatedly during the campaign last year that he wanted to eliminate corporate tax loopholes and put forward a modest plan to tax some services. He also adeptly refused to rule out the prospect of raising the income tax a bit before walking it down over four years.
* The Tribune has a story along those same lines…
“We still need more information,” said Rikeesha Phelon, spokeswoman for Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago. “There certainly have been conversations, but we’re still trying to mine out relevant information.” […]
“I think the easiest thing to do is for the governor to be specific,” [Steve Brown, spokesman for House Speaker Michael Madigan] said. “We haven’t seen a full bill. When the governor provides a full bill, then maybe something can move forward.” […]
Timing for the deal was better before last week’s budget address, when Rauner laid out his agenda for sweeping cuts to programs favored by Democrats, Phelon said.
It was during that speech that Rauner said a deal on the current budget crisis was imminent. Madigan agreed at the time. Negotiations appear to have stalled.
“Once (Democrats) got a picture of how he intends to manage and how he intends to prioritize, that just made it harder for them to grant him a blank check or to grant him expanded authority to do the same thing in this current year,” Phelon said.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:46 am:
Rich,
With all the national attention showered on Ayn Rand in recent years, I find it astonishing to believe the Speaker has never heard of her. Did you believe him when he said that?
- Truthteller - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:47 am:
Is it a “rookie mistake”,or a reflection of the Governor’s arrogance? As a businessman, Rauner could dictate his decisions.There is a difference between the private sector and government. Welcome to the world of democracy.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:50 am:
===Did you believe him when he said that? ===
Yep. He was completely stumped.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:56 am:
I find it extremely hard to believe that Rauner is now focusing on national office. He has an understandably high self-opinion, but he must know that “I beat Pat Quinn” isn’t enough of a resume to do anything.
Instead, I think it’s a combination of 1) A business executive mindset; 2) A realization that the problems are basically intractable given his campaign rhetoric (and thus, a sort of “giving up”); and 3) statehouse insiders’ inability to read him.
- illinoised - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:57 am:
Rauner’s rantings are the direct result of weak campaign finance laws. Every major election (state and national level) is now a fundraising contest. The candidate who raises the most money, for the most part, wins the general election. Why? The typical voter is so concerned about who won American Idol that he/she votes for politicians based on which one has the most ads. As with everything else, marketing over substance.
- qcexaminer - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:58 am:
You “purposely bumped into Madigan”? Fer cryin’ out loud—you were on his staff yet you had to do a cutesy-poo move to get his attention to talk to him?
Really?
Are you getting column-writing advice from Tom Friedman? lol
- illinoised - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:59 am:
I left out that ads run about 30 seconds, which is the only amount of time most voters spend on learning the issues.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:00 am:
===you were on his staff ===
That’s a complete lie.
- jerry 101 - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:02 am:
Man, did Rauner burn through any and all goodwill in record time, or what?
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:02 am:
The fact that the Speaker has never heard of Ayn Rand isn’t that surprising. He’s pretty focused, and she wouldn’t be part of that focus. Atlas shrugged…again.
- Cassandra - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:07 am:
I don’t think putting back some or all of Quinn’s income tax increase, retroactively, even with the usual doomsday rhetoric and blaming-of-the predecessor, will go over too well in, say, July.
Six months worth would be noticed in most middle class paychecks.
Both sides better hurry up and make some decisions. Neither party can be sure of escaping the blame when voters start assigning it.
- facts are stubborn things - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:09 am:
This game has not even reached the bottom of the first inning — the decision to hit the first two batters does make you scratch your head, but we have a long way to go.
- Tim Snopes - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:09 am:
Excellent analysis, Rich.
It’s like the new governor has a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde persona.
It’s like he thinks the individual happy-face meetings with legislators would negate the public harm he is doing.
It’s really kind of wierd.
- AnonymousOne - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:10 am:
Delusions of grandeur
- jake - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:11 am:
I am not an insider, but once had the privilege of a one-on-one conversation with the Speaker. He told me his favorite reading, outside of strictly work, was works of history and biographies of strong leaders. Ayn Rand was neither a historian, nor a strong leader, nor a biographer of such, nor of interest in any of those contexts. She was a writer of social science fiction/fantasy.
- Stones - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:15 am:
This is going to be an eye opening year of on the job training for the new Governor.
Again, I don’t wish him ill-will but as far as I know he never has held any elective office and he thinks he’s ready to tackle the job of Governor?
- walker - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:16 am:
For Rauner not to know Ayn Rand makes me fear that he is not all that well-educated. Arsenal, or was it Gooner, made that comment before. With that gap Rauner appears clueless about modern political economics — at least as the right wing (e.g. Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Rand Paul) think about it. They all openly tout and worship her. Maybe Arduin and IPI can better inform him.
- walker - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:18 am:
My comment above was in error. As it applies to the Speaker, he gets the criticism.
- Motambe - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:19 am:
Rauner is succeeding where previous governors have failed - enhancing Speaker Madigan’s image as the statesman among the legislative and executive leadership.
- UIC Guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:26 am:
Good on, Motambe!
- low level - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:30 am:
Gov Bozo Bruce is even more of a clown than I first thought. As for Donna - get a job! Or, at least a REAL job! There was nothing that required much thought in this proposal (still not in bill form). She just slashed everything & Bruce agreed.
Again we see that being a moderate consists of much more than having your wife claim your a moderate. It all goes to your priorities. Rauners prioroties are as radical as they come.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:30 am:
Ayn Rand is to politics as L. Ron Hubbard is to religion.
- Langhorne - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:32 am:
It’s the budget, stupid.
The FY 15 budget is the one priority above all else, then closely followed by FY 16. If he was seriously putting forth tax reform proposals, instead of incendiary rhetoric, he had a chance to get a lot done. Even now, he could offer those proposals to restore some cuts, and change the tone.
Nothing the gov has done so far shows he knows how to put together a package that can pass. Full speed ahead over the cliff.
And please, leave that poor old dog at home. No more shabby sun night distractions.
- Langhorne - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:35 am:
Rich, was the speaker enjoying his chicken with peppers?
- Frenchie Mendoza - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:45 am:
Any chance Walker would select Rauner as veep?
- Juice - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:49 am:
Low level, not to nitpick, but the Governor’s appropriation bills have been introduced.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:49 am:
Not sure why one union-busting midwest governor needs another, especially if the second one is pro-choice and reminds people of Mitt Romney.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:50 am:
I am having a bit of a problem believing that the new governor’s situation is the result of “rookie” mistakes.
I think you are being kind and optimistic.
During his campaign, the new governor appeared to have dodged every chance to make any statements of accountability and never gave any details. So, for him to believe he was in a position to give that budget address, seems to run counter to how he campaigned. Since the inauguration, Governor Rauner has been speaking and taking actions which would have prevented his election four months ago.
I’ve never seen similar rookie mistakes from anyone at this stage of their first term in elected office. Rauner’s actions and behavior seems to me, to reveal a person who misrepresented themselves to an electorate they didn’t respect enough to be honest to.
Speaker Madigan can destroy this new governor by doing absolutely nothing. Governor Rauner has won his single political contest by portraying the political powers in Illinois as corrupt, manipulative and victimizers. Now that he is the governor, he beclowns himself as the leader of those he demonized. Without a plan, without political support, without humility, without compassion, and without a clue, the onus is on the new governor.
The longer this new governor flays in mid-air, the quicker Illinoisans will tire of him. If Rauner believed that becoming governor made him a power player that dominates the Illinois government, he doesn’t understand governing, democracy or Illinois.
Eventually, Governor Rauner will run out of excuses why he can’t deliver what he promised and why he can’t govern. He is going to need more than $25 million to buy a new friend at the rate he is burning through them.
- MrJM - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:52 am:
And Mike Madigan probably doesn’t know who L. Ron Hubbard is either.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
– MrJM
- The Wolf - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:53 am:
Do you know what the difference is between Madigan’s dinner plans and Rauner’s budget is? Madigan follows through with his dinner plans!
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:08 am:
Rauner is following performance pay by giving it back?
- no prob - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:11 am:
Rich, great subscriber capfax today. One quibble: Rand Paul wasn’t named after Ayn Rand. His full name is Randall.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:12 am:
“- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 10:30 am:
Ayn Rand is to politics as L. Ron Hubbard is to religion.”
Perhaps 47, but I’m not aware of any senior elected officials who are scientologists whereas the same cannot be said, sadly, of Ayn Rand.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:13 am:
No prob,
His full name is Randall, but he is named for Ayn Rand.
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:13 am:
The rookie mistake was not asking for a delay in giving the budget message. The headlong dash to overtime gridlock is due to Rauner’s egotistical belief that his will and money can overcome all barriers.
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:14 am:
I really think this is about setting some new parameters. We’ll see.
- no prob - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:27 am:
- Chicago Cynic -
Check this out:
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2013/08/23/rand-paul-wasnt-named-after-ayn-rand-dad-confirms
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:31 am:
To the Post,
Rookie mistakes. That’s is indeed what we are witnessing.
The difference?
These are self inflicted mistakes that are wrapped around a belief that Rauner is indeed Sonny Corleone, and ignoring what actually happened to Sonny by those who made Sonny… overplay his weaknesses.
Look, let’s be honest for about 12 seconds about one thing here; Rauner thinks very little of the members of the General Assembly, and Rauner thinks even less of the GOP members. If you are hobest with yourself about that, some of this makes “Sonny Corleone” sense.
If Rauner can’t own you, like Ron Sandack, or scare you into submission like the GOP GA Caucuses, then Rauner calls you corrupt, and attacks their integrity, because they dare take their role of co-equal partner, serious.
So, Rauner cares little for the legislature, even less for the GOP Members, so why not drive his own personal beliefs now? His lack of “fear” of a co-equal partner is just like Sonny’s lack of fear of the other Families. Both Sonny and Rauner think their ways are THE ways, everyone better get in line.
Get in line, although its bad for business for Sonny. Get in line, even though Rauner’s agenda and budget are bad for cooperative governing with two parties controlling different branches. Sonny wanted “100 buttons” on the street, Rauner has $20 million in the bank. Apply pressure, even if it explodes in their faces.
The collateral miscues by Rauner; the Union attacks, the disrespect of the GA, the misspeaks to MJM and Cullerton, just to name a few, are about Rauner running roughshod without understanding the rules of the game, the need for cooperation, and governing for solutions, not idealog agendas at the cost of legislators, citizens, even himself.The game being played by Rauner isn’t even close to the game he raised his hand to swear to play. Sonny was suppose to “get the Family in order, move forward, and settle business as business, not make it personal. Rauner makes it personal, nit making it what might be best for the governing part of his job, and is willing to settle scores, well before he is actually crossed.
Rauner looks like he lacks experience, and what he is lacking in experience, Rauner wants to offset it with anger, pettiness, an agenda not needed in governing, and a lack of respect for everyone.
It’s the persona dictating failure, not the lack of experience. That should worry us all, except if your name is Ron Sandack I guess.
- Toure's Latte - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:34 am:
Rauner didn’t do what Madigan thought and expected he would do.
This is my shocked face.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:41 am:
Rauner started his gubernatorial term on the really bad foot. He illegally stripped public unions right as they began trying to work with their new boss. He proposed draconian budget cuts that will make his super-wealthy supporters happy, as well as conservative ideologues.
If Rauner has national ambitions, this is the wrong way to go about it–being on the far right wing. The electorate will be less white in 2020 and less likely to elect someone like Rauner for president.
Rauner may rise in the ranks of national Republicans, but I don’t think he’d do well at the top of a ticket–not the way he started being governor.
Gov. Walker is about to pass a right to work bill. I don’t think this bodes well for his presidential ambition. I don’t agree with some conservatives who say GOP presidential candidates don’t win because they’re not conservative enough.
- Tim Snopes - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 12:07 pm:
Vanilla Man is absolutely correct. Rauner said one thing to get elected and is doing another. He misrepresented himself.
If it is not a rookie mistake, it may be a tact to act like it is a rookie mistake and beg for forgiveness later.
The editorial page editors are buying this.
Just look at the Lee News editorial from Sunday. They have his back.
- DuPage Dave - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 12:20 pm:
I’m of the opinion that there is no end game here, no master plan on Rauner’s part. He’s pushing his anti-union, pro-business agenda without thinking through how he will get the votes he needs to make it happen. It’s as if he can’t help himself.
Please disagree with me on this and let me know what his plan is, because if it exists it’s very well hidden.
- jake - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 12:49 pm:
==Rauner didn’t do what Madigan thought and expected he would do.==
I think Rauner did EXACTLY what Madigan thought and expected he would do.
- Rod - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 12:50 pm:
I honestly believe many commentators are having a problem understanding that Governor Rauner’s hostility to unions is not tactical, but a foundational part of who he is as a conservative.
The budget framework he has put forward was designed to create an impasse, a potential government shut down from the perspective of his supporters will strengthen the Governor. If he is forced to concede anything in terms of revenue he will totally blame the Democrats and try to elect more Republicans to the House and Senate to push through his plan to radically reduce the cost of public sector workers and government services. It is anything but a rookie mistake, whether it will blow up is another question all together.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 12:55 pm:
“Man, did Rauner burn through any and all goodwill in record time, or what? ”
I don’t recall this board having much good will toward Rauner
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:04 pm:
===If he is forced to concede anything in terms of revenue he will totally blame the Democrats and try to elect more Republicans to the House and Senate to push through his plan to radically reduce the cost of public sector workers and government services.===
Nope.
That’s why this is a rookie mistake. MJM and Cullerton woukd demand GOP Sponsorship of that, and more that 30 GOP House votes, and more than 15 GOP Senate votes.
The biggest rookie mistake is that Rauner and the GOP can blame the Dems. Nope. That’s why Rauner made sure he bought and paid for the Caucuses, and why he doesn’t respect the Caucuses too.
- Huh? - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:06 pm:
“I don’t recall this board having much good will toward Rauner ”
I think that most of us were willing to give the guy a chance. However, once the timex watch shoved his thumb in our eye, and said it was a pat on the head, all bets were off.
- How Ironic - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:17 pm:
@Rod:
“If he is forced to concede anything in terms of revenue he will totally blame the Democrats and try to elect more Republicans to the House and Senate to push through his plan to radically reduce the cost of public sector workers and government services. It is anything but a rookie mistake, whether it will blow up is another question all together.”
As if MJM or Cullerton are going to do this guy’s heavy lifting. If he begs for a ‘revenue enhancement’ (tax increase) he’ll have to put every GOP vote in the green. Then and only then will some Dems provide the final votes.
Regardless of the tally, the majority of votes will be GOP votes.
It’s a rookie error, unforced and most certainly is going to blow up in his face.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:19 pm:
There’s definitely some weird stuff coming out of Rauner’s twitter feed in the past 60 minutes. He’s switching into the car salesman mode: “You can trust me to make decisions for you.”
And previous tweet said something like: “Don’t let anyone tell you what to do.”
What, he’s bored and sitting at his computer in the mansion? Locked in the bathroom like old times?
This is Blagojevich flashback time. It’s weird. I didn’t vote for Rauner, but I sure didn’t expect things to go down this way. I assumed he had some statesman-like qualities that would reveal themselves immediately after the election.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:20 pm:
=== he will totally blame the Democrats ===
You sign it, you own it.
===If he begs for a ‘revenue enhancement’ (tax increase) he’ll have to put every GOP vote in the green.===
Meh. MJM and Cullerton will both have to tackle most of their members to keep them from voting for a tax hike agreed to by a GOP governor.
- jerry 101 - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:23 pm:
One of my favorite quotes:
“There are two novels that can transform a bookish 14-year-kid’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish daydream that can lead to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood in which large chunks of the day are spent inventing ways to make real life more like a fantasy novel. The other is a book about orcs.”
I doubt the Speaker has read Lord of the Rings, either.
- AnonymousOne - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:31 pm:
What in heaven’s name would Rauner know about what a statesman is? He only knows how to cash checks (however he got them). Why would anyone expect him to show leadership capabilities? What’s he led? And to think he’d know about cooperation—collaboration for someone (other than himself) else’s good? What has led anyone to believe he’s ever had anyone’s interests in mind other than his own? Can’t think of a worse type of public leader than this one.
- Summerwind - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:45 pm:
Agree w/ you Rich, that Rauner may be angling for 2016 VP nod - but so silly. If Walker is the presidential nominee, he’d probably not pick “another Walker”; if Walker isn’t at the top of the ticket, the person who is would probably pick Walker over Rauner if we wanted to go that route.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 1:48 pm:
===Agree w/ you Rich, that Rauner may be angling for 2016 VP nod===
I’m not saying he is, just saying what so many Statehouse people keep telling me.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:18 pm:
“Rauner didn’t do what Madigan thought and expected he would do.”
Maybe, maybe not, but I suspect he did what Madigan HOPED he would do. He’s putting the Democratic coalition back together for them, giving them a great fundraising talking point, AND taking experienced state reps off the board. God knows Madigan could play this poorly, but those are actually serious FAVORS to the HDem caucus.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:21 pm:
If Rauner is nominated to be a VP on the GOP ticket, I sure hope they win. No one deserves to go Biden on the national stage, quite like Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:27 pm:
===- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:21 pm
If Rauner is nominated to be a VP on the GOP ticket, I sure hope they win. No one deserves to go Biden on the national stage, quite like Rauner.===
Then we get “Governor Slip and Sue”
She has even less experience than Rauner.
See - VanillaMan -, the LG does matter.
- anonlurker - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:37 pm:
2016 run. I have a hard time seeing it. He would not be bringing much experience in government. And based on his actions so far, I don’t see him achieving much in the near future that could be seen as a positive. More of a ball and chain as a running mate.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:34 pm:
If he’s angling for veep, then he’s not budging on anything. Whatsoever.
Today, at least, he seems to be doubling down on his anti-union stance. Maybe he’s hoping for a shutdown or a lockout. Maybe that would establish his GOP bona fides. Although, I’m sensing shutdown exhaustion on the national level. But maybe it’s time states start to wink off and on one by one.
A pathetic way to run government.
- Peoria democrat - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 7:19 pm:
“Recall Rauner” ya gotta admit, it has a nice ring to it…
- Filmmaker Professor - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 7:47 pm:
“Ayn Rand is to politics as L. Ron Hubbard is to religion.”
well played 47th Ward.
- RNUG - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 8:41 pm:
June 30 contract expiration + 30 day notification = July 31 lockout