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Super majorities aren’t all-powerful
Wednesday, Mar 11, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Tribune has a pretty good front page story today on state revenue options (bottom line: there are no “good” options). You should read the whole thing, but I thought we’d discuss this one quote…
I listened to the audio earlier this week, and from what I remember, Cullerton was inferring that both chambers couldn’t override a tax hike veto on a strictly partisan basis. He might possibly be able to do it (although he does have quite a few targets up for reelection in 2016), but Madigan could not. For one, Jack Franks ain’t voting for a tax hike of any kind. No way. And if MJM loses just one vote, a partisan override dies. So, there has to be an agreement with the governor (of whichever party, but especially now). And if there’s an agreement with the governor, then the governor will have to put Republican votes on the thing. Ergo “everything’s going to have to be bipartisan.”
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- Downstate Illinois - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:33 am:
Grand bargain. The income tax gets hiked, a bit, along with a gradual phaseout. Dems don’t get their favorite programs cut, and the rest of us get a better business climate with tort reform, workman’s comp reform, etc.
- Norseman - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:40 am:
Another reminder of the factors leading to a very long and acrimonious legislative session.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:43 am:
Bingo. The Gov does not have 30 and 60 to pass. The Dems do not have 3/5 to override. They need each other.
And if they can not understand that, none of them should be reelected.
- Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:43 am:
The question here becomes what are the Dems willing to give up for the GOP to support a modest, temporary income tax increase and perhaps permanent sales tax on services, which Rauner seems to be willing to support. Workman’s comp reform?. End to double dipping for multiple pensions, and those “million dollar day” pension scams? Prohibition of public employee strikes? End of “Prevailing wage”? Serious Republicans are going to need something to go back to their constituents and make the case as to what they got being better for them than the hurt from the taxes. 5% should be off the table. A 4% deal may be able to happen, if the Dem giveback is valuable enough.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:45 am:
The Super- Majority’s sole purpose in ensuring to inflict the maximum damage to the ILGOP GA by holding back…
13 House Democratc votes….
10 Senate Democratic votes.
Minimum.
That’s the ball game.
It’s not overriding vetos, or running counter to Rauner and HIS Republican Caucuses. No way. Its the variances of 13 to 30 in the House, sparing GOP damage, and 10 to 15 in the Senate, sparing GOP damage in that chamber.
Here’s the tragic…tragic…rub if you are a member of the GIP GA; Rauner sees you as chattle in a game to get what he, Rauner, needs, and it will be at a high cost to the you… and Rauner is absolutely fine with it.
How do I l know?
The $20 million is being used by Rauner, for Rauner, and only Rauner…solving “problems” ain’t helping YOU…
So, all this “Veto-Proof” nonsense with the Governor of the opposite party seated is pure partisan folly to blame Dems, but I would focus on how to stave of the upcoming damage Rauner will inflict, wether you are an “Owl”…or not.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:47 am:
“The question here becomes what are the Dems willing to give up”
Or what the Governor is willing to give up. Legislative leadership hasn’t been punished for budget brinksmanship in the last decade or so. Governors have. The “ask” isn’t all on one side.
“Serious Republicans are going to need something to go back to their constituents”
But what will the majority of the Republicans in the GA need?
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:55 am:
==sole purpose in ensuring to inflict the maximum damage==
Which is why it is so crucial for Rauner to tie the 2015 budget fix and the 2016 budget deal together. As of right now, they each have power to inflict maximum damage on one another and force their opposition to wear it.
But as soon as that 2015 budget fix is sealed, Rauner loses leverage on the 2016 deal. Neither Russia nor the US would independently scale back their nukes during the Cold War, or they would be destroyed. The only way things happen is through mutual de-escalation.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:56 am:
- Arizona Bob -,
It’s what Rauner is willing to bargin to get 13 Democratic House votes and 10 Democratic Senate votes.
It’s 60, it’s 30. That’s the ball game you keep missing. Completely.
- Retired Op - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:58 am:
In addition to Franks, MJM won’t put on the half dozen House targets until the roof is caving in.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:58 am:
There can’t be any bargaining if one of the sides thinks it holds something more valuable than the other side. Rauner needs to recognize that his election was a fluke before he gets real on his demands.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:03 pm:
===what are the Dems willing to give up for the GOP to support a modest, temporary income tax increase and perhaps permanent sales tax on services===
Governor, you can have my offer now if you’d like. My offer is this: nothing. Not even the votes of most of my caucus, which I would appreciate if you would lobby personally.
You’re living in a dream world Bob. Try to stay out of the sun, it’s baking your brain.
- Not it - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:08 pm:
I’ve never been one to think that the majority party can’t pull it together and take responsibility for being the majority party. Somehow, someway, by some miracle, they’re all able to pull it together and elect someone unanimously to be Speaker or President. If they don’t want to be held responsible for being in charge, then they shouldn’t ask for the job.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:08 pm:
- 47th Ward -, very well played.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:12 pm:
Suggestion:
Pass a tax on sale of option contracts that will begin if the Illinois Constitution is not amended to allow a graduated income tax in 2016 election.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:18 pm:
===If they don’t want to be held responsible for being in charge, then they shouldn’t ask for the job.===
You must be new to Illinois. Did you just move here in January?
- anon - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:53 pm:
47th has the answer of the day!
=== “The question here becomes what are the Dems willing to give up”===
AZ doesn’t understand that under the IL constitution it is the governor’s responsibility to propose a balanced budget. Rauner has failed to do so, given the $2B hole that no one disputes. Since Rauner also wants unprecedented new capital spending, as he told the Asphalt Pavers, it is his responsibility to propose a revenue source. It’s a pipedream to expect Democrats to have to enact the GOP platform in return.
- Joe Blow - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 1:30 pm:
Targets,targets,targets Rauner has made every D a target with his 20million so how can a target vote for anything that he wants?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 1:33 pm:
- Joe Blow -
Rauner threatened the ILGOP GA members, not the Dems.
You’re welcome.
- Retired Op - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 1:53 pm:
- Joe Blow -
Umm, yeah. OW set you straight. That $ is never going to land in House Dem accounts.
- Joe Blow - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 5:24 pm:
You don’t think that money will be used against the Dems. Really
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 5:27 pm:
===You don’t think that money will be used against the Dems. Really===
Yeah. Really.
You think Rauner is lying? lol.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 5:54 pm:
Them “veto-proof majority” mantra was just a dodge from some who would like to continue avoiding any responsibility for governing.
AB, you never cease to amaze with your delusions.
Governors get credit for the good and blame for the bad, whether they deserve it or not. They wear the jacket, always.
Rauner’s in about a $3 billion hole on his proposed budget already. He’s going to need most GOP members and plenty of Dem help to get straight.
- Anon - Thursday, Mar 12, 15 @ 12:29 am:
Legalization and taxation of recreational marijuana.