- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 6:48 pm:
Yesterday, while driving, the only people that I saw walking precincts were Garcia volunteers. I really think Rahm has to pay most of his people to perform work. I have seen lots of signs, including many placed along the median strips and public roads, but no workers of the door bell variety for Rahm.
I am not predicting anything, but this one may be a toss up.
driving into the city from monitoring in the NW burbs, saw a sudden ground game from Rahm. signs popping up, door hangers, things not seen in Feb, and actual volunteers. Andy Shaw is on WBBM saying the air wars will have won it if Rahm wins, but looks like they stepped it up on the ground. saw some hired Chuy workers a few days ago.
Chuy seems like a decent guy, but he never offered more than “Not Rahm.”
A lot of people like me may not have been thrilled with Rahm, but we didn’t hate him. We would vote for somebody else if they gave us a reason. Chuy never did.
It was difficult to see how any of the 4 running in the Primary could be Rahm “one-on-one”.
Decisive victory for Rahm, leaving no doubt.
Chuy didn’t help himself either. There was never a feel that Chuy was building off the 30%+ or so from the Primary and Rahm was “close” enough after the Primary to finish off any one of the four.
It was what it was. Sometimes elections are just that “simple”… with millions upon millions being funneled in, but I digress…
Should make contract negotiations interesting with all of the Lewis/ Chuy supporters
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:43 pm:
Garcia got into the game very late. Under the circumstances, he did not do too badly as a substitute.
I do not know if the current percentages will hold up, but, if so, some of the polls were way off the mark again. I sometimes cringe when the polls drive the news cycle. I hate loaded push polls which are all about suppressing turnout.
Some voters read that Candidate X leads by nearly 20% and they don’t bother to go to the polling place. Shame on them.
I was cheering for Garcia, but only by default. Emanuel has not been an impressive mayor during his first term. He ducked and he punted. He is going to have to govern differently because now he really has no choice. He cannot stall any longer.
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:46 pm:
@Gooner:
I have talked to some people who used their February ballot to send a message to Rahm that they disapproved of his performance or his arrogant style. A few of these same voters used their April ballot to reelect Rahm.
“A lot of people like me may not have been thrilled with Rahm, but we didn’t hate him. We would vote for somebody else if they gave us a reason. Chuy never did.”
I pretty much agree with this. I voted for Rahm. I like some things he did. I didn’t like some things he did.
I like that he hustles to bring business to Chicago. It’s cited as one of the reasons the Chicago metro area was number one in corporate real estate deals (for two years in a row).
I like that he made a deal with a union or unions to keep convention business coming to McCormick Place.
I like that he stands up against Rauner’s right to work. He said he wants Chicago to compete with or model world class cities and to not follow lower-wage models.
Part of my support for Rahm was based on a fear, likely irrational, that his losing would jeopardize the Obama Library coming to Chicago. This probably means nothing, as the Obamas may still choose New York (and less likely, Hawaii).
I really, really, really did not like Chuy’s opposition to the library coming to a Chicago park, and his flip-flop. This is a presidential library, the first African-American president, and it could be great economically. Surely we can allocate some Park District land for this, just like the City Council did.
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 9:10 pm:
When voter participation declines, it is easy to point to the percentages and boast about a winning candidate. It is a different electorate now, but Rahm’s “decisive” percentages in 2011 and 2015 were the type of stuff that led Jake Arvey to push incumbent Mayor Ed “Sewer Pipes” Kelly off of the Democratic slate in ‘47. With the entire organization behind him (not as a challenger in ‘83), I cannot remember Richie struggling and sweating and spending so much as Rahm did.
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 9:11 pm:
Sorry.
I meant to add that this term could be make or break for Emanuel’s “national” ambitions. He won, but the need for a run-off did some damage.
I got a lot of flack for calling the 15-20 point Emanuel lead polls off and saying that Emanuel led by 5-10% as being more accurate. However, I still think that’s about where it finished. The one thing I did notice is that there will be a very different city council. It won’t be council wars with only about 10 non-rubber stamps, but it’s a start.
it’s not always clear, and I don’t have time to read all the financials, but it would be interesting to take an in depth look at who was behind all these campaigns, the mail houses, the ad buyers, the consultants, yes, and the unions too. there are some real winners and losers out there tonight and not just the candidates!
=I guess any Rauner criticism by Rahm is over and done with now.=
Rahm will publicly and loudly criticize Rauner for cuts to social programs, and any cuts to the City’s share of the state income tax. What will be interesting to see is where Rahm stands on municipal bankruptcy; is that really his plan for CPS?
=Looking back, could Karen Lewis have beaten Rahm?=
Doubtful. Chuy basically ran the campaign that Lewis would have run without the bluster. Like Emanuel Lewis is a polarizing figure. You either like her or you don’t.
If anything Chuy’s calm demeanor stood in stark contrast to Emanuel’s (and Lewis’)propensity for volatility. It forced Emanuel to change his tone. A Lewis candidacy wouldn’t have accomplished that. Lewis may have brought Emanuel’s margin down a bit but that’s likely it.
=Looking back, could Karen Lewis have beaten Rahm? =
I have no doubt. I do think the biggest hindrances that Chuy had were that he wasn’t a dynamic figure and while he didn’t wind up bad financially, he didn’t get his money early enough to define himself and instead the election became a referendum on Garcia instead of Emanuel. Karen would have hit the ground with higher negatives, but also higher positives and it would have been much harder for Rahm to make it a referendum on her ten on him.
This was no slam dunk for Rahm though. If I said after Karen dropped out that Jesus Garcia would force him to a run off and lose 56-44 and despite his PAC, no progressive aldermen were defeated and another half-dozen were added to the opposition.
The people who funding Rahm are mostly the same ones who funded Rauner. This is a victory for Bruce’s agenda, no doubt about it. I expect Bruce to get to work right away on a law to make it impossible for CTU to strike so that Rahm can really roll them in negotiations, but that would have happened even if they had stayed neutral like the CPD did.
I think the biggest loser is Bob Fioretti who I imagine has a mop and bucket and is cleaning up after Rahm’s victory party so that Emanuel gets the deposit back. I bet Rahm had a lot of fun last night telling Bob to go home and get his “shine box”.
To win, Emanuel was forced to acknowledge the worth of the large liberal wing of the Chicago Democratic party, and to tone down his “in your face” persona with a more conciliatory attitude. Being publicly on the record that he is revising his priorities, and with a more contentious city council, it will be difficult for him to backtrack. Emanuel won but has lost a lot of momentum, perhaps irreparably, in his quest to eventually run for President. Against a stronger, better known opponent such as Lewis, he might very well have lost.
Karen would have been far more polarizing than Chuy. Her negatives would have ended up sky high.
Chuy ran a campaign on similar issues (or lack thereof) that Karen would have run, but people like Chuy. He got the benefit of the doubt from some. Put Karen in there and you lose 5 to 10% at least.
@Quiet Sage, Rahm won. there’s lots to do. lots. sorry, it’s not going to be a call a meeting hold hands so all the junior high members can have their say approach.
- Upon Further Review - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 9:47 am:
Gooner:
I think you are right that Garcia probably was a better candidate. Karen Lewis gets lots of applause for her comments, but it would have been easier for Emanuel’s team to work her over in attack ads. Lewis was correct in her analysis of the 2015 mayoral race in that she pointed up that fundraiser Rahm would need every available dollar to be reelected. It will be interesting to see how much he spent per vote. I have not seen the final tallies, but it appeared his vote totals are down from 2011. Emanuel 2015 reminds me of Percy 1978. Reelected after an apology and soon to be out of office after the current term.
=I think you are right that Garcia probably was a better candidate. Karen Lewis gets lots of applause for her comments, but it would have been easier for Emanuel’s team to work her over in attack ads. Lewis was correct in her analysis of the 2015 mayoral race in that she pointed up that fundraiser Rahm would need every available dollar to be reelected. It will be interesting to see how much he spent per vote. I have not seen the final tallies, but it appeared his vote totals are down from 2011. Emanuel 2015 reminds me of Percy 1978. Reelected after an apology and soon to be out of office after the current term.=
Remember that Lewis was the second choice. Preckwinkle was always the first choice. I think she would have won easily. Karen reaslly believed that if she had $8,000,000 she could win. Chuy wound up somewhere around $6,000,000 and lost 3 months at least on Lewis.
I also think Lewis would be hard to attack. Polls gave her a significant lead on Emanuel and attacking her, he’d have the same problem that Garcia had attacking Emanuel. She can be bombastic and inflammatory, but everybody already knows it. It’s hard to launch attacks that show a side to her that voters weren’t already aware of. It’s the same reason Rahm didn’t really lose any support for yelling at the mental health activists.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 5:14 pm:
Thanks for having this Post up…
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 6:48 pm:
Yesterday, while driving, the only people that I saw walking precincts were Garcia volunteers. I really think Rahm has to pay most of his people to perform work. I have seen lots of signs, including many placed along the median strips and public roads, but no workers of the door bell variety for Rahm.
I am not predicting anything, but this one may be a toss up.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 7:12 pm:
driving into the city from monitoring in the NW burbs, saw a sudden ground game from Rahm. signs popping up, door hangers, things not seen in Feb, and actual volunteers. Andy Shaw is on WBBM saying the air wars will have won it if Rahm wins, but looks like they stepped it up on the ground. saw some hired Chuy workers a few days ago.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 7:28 pm:
29% in, 56-44 Rahm…
Hmm.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 7:39 pm:
53% in, still 56-44, Rahm..
Almost “chasing” time…
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 7:41 pm:
My gosh, Chicago reports quickly these days. Times have changed…
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 7:54 pm:
Chuy “chasing” now, votes not percentages, not a good sign an hour in…
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 7:57 pm:
@cbschicago: BREAKING NEWS: Emanuel declared winner of Chicago Mayor race, per CBS exit polling data.
- Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:00 pm:
More dismal turnout. Half that of the big 1980s elections.
- MrJM - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:00 pm:
I need a new hobby.
– MrJM
- Mittuns - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:04 pm:
This election Season Finale has fallen flat. Rahm cruising to re-election as Mayor of Terminus.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:04 pm:
===I need a new hobby.===
Nah. What you need is a candidate who doesn’t consider campaigning to be a hobby.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:09 pm:
A “Daley” in the City Council…11th Ward
- Gary H - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:14 pm:
Rahm wins with Republican Votes.
- Gooner - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:23 pm:
Chuy seems like a decent guy, but he never offered more than “Not Rahm.”
A lot of people like me may not have been thrilled with Rahm, but we didn’t hate him. We would vote for somebody else if they gave us a reason. Chuy never did.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:25 pm:
It was difficult to see how any of the 4 running in the Primary could be Rahm “one-on-one”.
Decisive victory for Rahm, leaving no doubt.
Chuy didn’t help himself either. There was never a feel that Chuy was building off the 30%+ or so from the Primary and Rahm was “close” enough after the Primary to finish off any one of the four.
It was what it was. Sometimes elections are just that “simple”… with millions upon millions being funneled in, but I digress…
Rahm won. “That’s that”.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:40 pm:
Should make contract negotiations interesting with all of the Lewis/ Chuy supporters
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:43 pm:
Garcia got into the game very late. Under the circumstances, he did not do too badly as a substitute.
I do not know if the current percentages will hold up, but, if so, some of the polls were way off the mark again. I sometimes cringe when the polls drive the news cycle. I hate loaded push polls which are all about suppressing turnout.
Some voters read that Candidate X leads by nearly 20% and they don’t bother to go to the polling place. Shame on them.
I was cheering for Garcia, but only by default. Emanuel has not been an impressive mayor during his first term. He ducked and he punted. He is going to have to govern differently because now he really has no choice. He cannot stall any longer.
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:46 pm:
@Gooner:
I have talked to some people who used their February ballot to send a message to Rahm that they disapproved of his performance or his arrogant style. A few of these same voters used their April ballot to reelect Rahm.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 8:50 pm:
“A lot of people like me may not have been thrilled with Rahm, but we didn’t hate him. We would vote for somebody else if they gave us a reason. Chuy never did.”
I pretty much agree with this. I voted for Rahm. I like some things he did. I didn’t like some things he did.
I like that he hustles to bring business to Chicago. It’s cited as one of the reasons the Chicago metro area was number one in corporate real estate deals (for two years in a row).
I like that he made a deal with a union or unions to keep convention business coming to McCormick Place.
I like that he stands up against Rauner’s right to work. He said he wants Chicago to compete with or model world class cities and to not follow lower-wage models.
Part of my support for Rahm was based on a fear, likely irrational, that his losing would jeopardize the Obama Library coming to Chicago. This probably means nothing, as the Obamas may still choose New York (and less likely, Hawaii).
I really, really, really did not like Chuy’s opposition to the library coming to a Chicago park, and his flip-flop. This is a presidential library, the first African-American president, and it could be great economically. Surely we can allocate some Park District land for this, just like the City Council did.
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 9:10 pm:
When voter participation declines, it is easy to point to the percentages and boast about a winning candidate. It is a different electorate now, but Rahm’s “decisive” percentages in 2011 and 2015 were the type of stuff that led Jake Arvey to push incumbent Mayor Ed “Sewer Pipes” Kelly off of the Democratic slate in ‘47. With the entire organization behind him (not as a challenger in ‘83), I cannot remember Richie struggling and sweating and spending so much as Rahm did.
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 9:11 pm:
Sorry.
I meant to add that this term could be make or break for Emanuel’s “national” ambitions. He won, but the need for a run-off did some damage.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 9:43 pm:
Wow. Ray Suarez goes down…
- Upon Further Review - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 9:57 pm:
It looks like the City Council is going to be decidedly different, some Emanuel allies were sent packing.
- Purple Fan - Tuesday, Apr 7, 15 @ 10:06 pm:
How many millions will Keith Kelleher and SEIU blow on elections before their members stand up?
- Carhartt Representative - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 12:14 am:
I got a lot of flack for calling the 15-20 point Emanuel lead polls off and saying that Emanuel led by 5-10% as being more accurate. However, I still think that’s about where it finished. The one thing I did notice is that there will be a very different city council. It won’t be council wars with only about 10 non-rubber stamps, but it’s a start.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 12:28 am:
it’s not always clear, and I don’t have time to read all the financials, but it would be interesting to take an in depth look at who was behind all these campaigns, the mail houses, the ad buyers, the consultants, yes, and the unions too. there are some real winners and losers out there tonight and not just the candidates!
- Stones - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 8:25 am:
Looking back, could Karen Lewis have beaten Rahm?
- chi - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 8:27 am:
=Looking back, could Karen Lewis have beaten Rahm?=
I’d say yes.
- CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 8:38 am:
I guess any Rauner criticism by Rahm is over and done with now.
- chi - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 8:48 am:
=I guess any Rauner criticism by Rahm is over and done with now.=
Rahm will publicly and loudly criticize Rauner for cuts to social programs, and any cuts to the City’s share of the state income tax. What will be interesting to see is where Rahm stands on municipal bankruptcy; is that really his plan for CPS?
- pundent - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 8:52 am:
=Looking back, could Karen Lewis have beaten Rahm?=
Doubtful. Chuy basically ran the campaign that Lewis would have run without the bluster. Like Emanuel Lewis is a polarizing figure. You either like her or you don’t.
If anything Chuy’s calm demeanor stood in stark contrast to Emanuel’s (and Lewis’)propensity for volatility. It forced Emanuel to change his tone. A Lewis candidacy wouldn’t have accomplished that. Lewis may have brought Emanuel’s margin down a bit but that’s likely it.
- Carhartt Representative - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 8:56 am:
=Looking back, could Karen Lewis have beaten Rahm? =
I have no doubt. I do think the biggest hindrances that Chuy had were that he wasn’t a dynamic figure and while he didn’t wind up bad financially, he didn’t get his money early enough to define himself and instead the election became a referendum on Garcia instead of Emanuel. Karen would have hit the ground with higher negatives, but also higher positives and it would have been much harder for Rahm to make it a referendum on her ten on him.
This was no slam dunk for Rahm though. If I said after Karen dropped out that Jesus Garcia would force him to a run off and lose 56-44 and despite his PAC, no progressive aldermen were defeated and another half-dozen were added to the opposition.
The people who funding Rahm are mostly the same ones who funded Rauner. This is a victory for Bruce’s agenda, no doubt about it. I expect Bruce to get to work right away on a law to make it impossible for CTU to strike so that Rahm can really roll them in negotiations, but that would have happened even if they had stayed neutral like the CPD did.
I think the biggest loser is Bob Fioretti who I imagine has a mop and bucket and is cleaning up after Rahm’s victory party so that Emanuel gets the deposit back. I bet Rahm had a lot of fun last night telling Bob to go home and get his “shine box”.
- Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 9:30 am:
To win, Emanuel was forced to acknowledge the worth of the large liberal wing of the Chicago Democratic party, and to tone down his “in your face” persona with a more conciliatory attitude. Being publicly on the record that he is revising his priorities, and with a more contentious city council, it will be difficult for him to backtrack. Emanuel won but has lost a lot of momentum, perhaps irreparably, in his quest to eventually run for President. Against a stronger, better known opponent such as Lewis, he might very well have lost.
- Gooner - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 9:31 am:
Karen would have been far more polarizing than Chuy. Her negatives would have ended up sky high.
Chuy ran a campaign on similar issues (or lack thereof) that Karen would have run, but people like Chuy. He got the benefit of the doubt from some. Put Karen in there and you lose 5 to 10% at least.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 9:45 am:
@Quiet Sage, Rahm won. there’s lots to do. lots. sorry, it’s not going to be a call a meeting hold hands so all the junior high members can have their say approach.
- Upon Further Review - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 9:47 am:
Gooner:
I think you are right that Garcia probably was a better candidate. Karen Lewis gets lots of applause for her comments, but it would have been easier for Emanuel’s team to work her over in attack ads. Lewis was correct in her analysis of the 2015 mayoral race in that she pointed up that fundraiser Rahm would need every available dollar to be reelected. It will be interesting to see how much he spent per vote. I have not seen the final tallies, but it appeared his vote totals are down from 2011. Emanuel 2015 reminds me of Percy 1978. Reelected after an apology and soon to be out of office after the current term.
- Carhartt Representative - Wednesday, Apr 8, 15 @ 10:05 am:
=I think you are right that Garcia probably was a better candidate. Karen Lewis gets lots of applause for her comments, but it would have been easier for Emanuel’s team to work her over in attack ads. Lewis was correct in her analysis of the 2015 mayoral race in that she pointed up that fundraiser Rahm would need every available dollar to be reelected. It will be interesting to see how much he spent per vote. I have not seen the final tallies, but it appeared his vote totals are down from 2011. Emanuel 2015 reminds me of Percy 1978. Reelected after an apology and soon to be out of office after the current term.=
Remember that Lewis was the second choice. Preckwinkle was always the first choice. I think she would have won easily. Karen reaslly believed that if she had $8,000,000 she could win. Chuy wound up somewhere around $6,000,000 and lost 3 months at least on Lewis.
I also think Lewis would be hard to attack. Polls gave her a significant lead on Emanuel and attacking her, he’d have the same problem that Garcia had attacking Emanuel. She can be bombastic and inflammatory, but everybody already knows it. It’s hard to launch attacks that show a side to her that voters weren’t already aware of. It’s the same reason Rahm didn’t really lose any support for yelling at the mental health activists.
- Anon - Thursday, Apr 9, 15 @ 11:36 am:
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