* From a Rauner guy…
Rich –
You may have seen a poll released last week showing support for charter schools in Illinois: http://northernpublicradio.org/post/poll-illinois-residents-support-charter-schools
While the group only released the numbers about Charters, we obtained a copy of the full poll, which includes data on state right track/wrong track, governor job approval and legislature job approval. It was done by Public Opinion Strategies, which you know is very good and is of registered voters. It was done after the so-called Good Friday cuts and before the cuts were rescinded.
Rauner Job Approval
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 38%
Net: +6
Strong in the collars and downstate.
Legislature Job Approval
Approve: 26%
Disapprove: 62%
Net: -36
The poll was conducted April 20-22, so it’s a bit dated.
* More…
Thoughts?
- Anon - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:34 am:
Perhaps it is time for elected officials to level with their constituents: If you want services, you have to pay for them. You also need to pay for the services your grandparents wanted and didn’t pay for.
- Polls - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:34 am:
Legislatures are never positively rated yet incumbents win. One, literally one, IL State Legislator lost his seat last year.
Don’t count on the group getting bad poll numbers. The individuals do well under this map.
- The professor - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:35 am:
The numbers are difficult to digests because we do not know they they asked and the news from the state capitol, up to the time of the poll, was very negative (still is). With things changing so rapidly a poll is difficult without specific issues. Charters being the exception.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:39 am:
They measure two different things.
A governor is a single person and a state legislature isn’t. Polls which ask questions like this fail to recognize that it is far easier to spread blame among many, than it is to blame a single person.
After six months in office, Rauner has only a net 6 positive. That isn’t good when compared to similar points with other governors. I wouldn’t be bragging if I were a fan of his.
Had Rauner merely made a sincere attempt to do his job credibly, he would poll higher, in my opinion. What Rauner has been doing since Inauguration has been to bleed credibility and voters are losing hope that he is the right guy for the job.
No one likes the accommodations found in a life raft, but they’d rather be in one than forced to swim with the sharks. That is what this poll suggests to me.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:40 am:
Yep. Okay. Got it.
The Rauner Cuts and the Rauner Budget will be owned by Governor Rauner.
Those polled may despise the GA, they may be “meh, ok” with the Governor, but it’s only until a budget is passed, and Rauner will have to own his choices will his numbers resonate to real “job approval”
Rauner has yet to do anything, except make an ignorant move, then recinding it.
There isn’t a legislative agenda accomplished, or even defeated.
There isn’t a budget to clarify what Governor Rauner figuratively, and literary, signs off as his.
This Rauner 44-38 is more reflecting the rhetoric playing to the voters, and the messenger, than the governing.
The GA +/- is about a history of governing, which Rauner rails on too, that is awful in the voters’ eyes.
So, I appreciate the effort of the poll, and what it’s trying to show, but, it’s point is lost on me.
When Rauner does his job, and people see the job once a budget and cuts bear the Rauner name, then we’ll know how people feel about the work product.
- A guy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:40 am:
Can you please make it clear that I’m not your source on this. lol.
- Crispy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:44 am:
For what it’s worth, the polling company, POS (kind of an unfortunate acronym), bills itself as “the leading Republican polling company” in the U.S., and has conducted focus groups for Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, and other RW GOPers. Plus, it’s an outdated poll. Also, would like to see the poll questions. Who’s going to answer “no” to some variant of “Do you support ‘freedom’”? Lol.
- Stones - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:46 am:
Most folks like “their” legislator but hate the House and Senate as bodies of government. It will be interesting to see the Governor’s poll numbers if there is a protracted legislative session this year and services are affected.
- Big Joe - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:47 am:
Any poll about Rauner is virtually meaningless at this time. Run a poll after the GA session goes into overtime, a budget is passed, and we see where we are. THEN we will get some better numbers on how citizens feel about our people in government.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:48 am:
How did Andy Dufresne escape Shawshank prison? Time and pressure. Time and pressure. I have not seen a newly elected governor with a negative approval rating after 3 months into the job… has anyone? He hasn’t had time to make the populace his enemy. The pressure is on… and there is so much time before the next election….
- phocion - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:49 am:
==That isn’t good when compared to similar points with other governors.==
Please provide cites for this claim.
- Ray del Camino - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:50 am:
When you get into some of the regional breakdowns, numbers are so small as to be meaningless. 48 overs in Northern Illinois? You can’t with a straight face tell me that Rauner was (in April) +2 in Northern Illinois from a sample of 48 people.
- Darnell McAlister - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:50 am:
Who would have thought that freezing property taxes would prove popular?
- Dean Keaton - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:52 am:
==Most folks like “their” legislator but hate the House and Senate as bodies of government. .===
I agree with this. Wouldn’t the polling make more sense if you polled a person’s specific rep and senator instead of the groups as a whole?
- Anonymous - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:53 am:
- Can you please make it clear that I’m not your source on this. lol. -
Don’t worry, Guy. None of us would ever confuse you for someone that can read and interpret numbers.
- Wordslinger - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:54 am:
Guy, don’t worry, no one would dream that you were the source of anything substantive.
- Elo Kiddies - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:55 am:
This may explain part of why the governor’s people are taking the line they have chosen, but it still doesn’t explain how the state moves forward. Without a lot of pain, that is.
- Not quite a majority - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:58 am:
Although I agree with the comments that the size of the numbers downstate are too small to lead to decent results, I question the question — when you say ‘right track/wrong track’ the person answering may be a Mike Huckabee supporter or President of the ‘We Ready for Hillary’ league. Basically, we’ve got so many problems (budget, roads, jobs downstate, fracking in the south, heck, concealed carry for some people!) that any single one of those problems might provoke a negative response. That’s why it’s important to have choices (name the problem you think it facing Illinois) to give some idea of what the response really is.
- A guy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:01 am:
=== Wordslinger - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 10:54 am:
Guy, don’t worry, no one would dream that you were the source of anything substantive.===
Some would ‘more than dream’ of this. They actually do, often daily. Weekly, always. Such is the biz I’m in.
But is this what you mean when you criticize others for speaking for “everyone” or “no one”? Too clever by half, as usual. You just wake up angry everyday don’t you?
- Juvenal - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:07 am:
Per the pollster, Rauner is currently getting the benefit of the doubt.
That will be replaced at some point with the reality of the 2016 budget.
Frankly, I am surprised the “wrong track” numbers for the state aren’t higher.
The state cannot stay on the track it is on, but Lawrence Msall and Bruce Rauner offer two very different alternatives for the state. This poll says nothign about which one Illinoisans prefer.
Most earlier polls show voters believe a combination of cuts and new revenue are needed.
- walker - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:08 am:
===Legislatures are never positively rated yet incumbents win….The individuals do well under this map.===
The first is true, but it’s not the map. People frequently pan their legislature, but rate highly their own legislator. He/she’s always an exception.
Mapping reform is not a silver bullet; hardly even a rubber one.
- Austin Blvd - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:14 am:
This poll does not give Rauner the right to run roughshod.
- Apocalypse Now - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:14 am:
“Sonny” and his crew seem to be doing a little better with the public, than those polled on this blog would rate him. No surprise there.
- Carhartt Representative - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:15 am:
I was called on this poll. It was such a push poll that I don’t know how you can extrapolate any significance from it.
- A parent - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:15 am:
Here’s a question the survey left off: A charter school will open in your school district but the traditional school will have to give the majority of their state funding to do so (see Praire Crossing). Knowing this, would you approve or disappove having a charter school placed in your district?
- Wordslinger - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:16 am:
No, I find much humor every day, some of it intentional.
- Anonymous - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:16 am:
Absolutely shocking that a pro-charter organization would fashion questions in order to get a poll response that “favors” charter schools. I am certain that a poll conducted by Unions related to whether Charter are favored might get a different response? Likely the rest of the poll questions were “leaning” pro-Rauner- this is actually meaningless which has been pointed out a number of times. Finally, most of the time folks think their Rep or Senator is doing fine- it’s all the others!!
- Carhartt Representative - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:21 am:
So I checked out the link to the poll:
“The poll questioned mostly white voters. Most were reached via landlines and were outside of Cook County”
” 40 percent of the 600 survey respondents said they did not know what a charter school was. The people conducting the surveys explained charters are independently-run public schools that meet the same state standards as public schools. ”
This survey sounds very reliable
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:26 am:
“…“Sonny” and his crew seem to be doing a little or nothing of measure so far except engagin’ with the public, those polled on this blog would rate him much lower because we are watching closer, and not swayed by empty words.”
Better.
- Carhartt Representative - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:28 am:
Up 6% when polling white people outside of Cook County using landlines sounds about right actually.
- Anonin' - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:30 am:
Incredibly timely…Chamber thinks its January and starts to push power point plan
http://www.ilturnaround.com/page.asp?content=startpage&g=il_turnaround
- Earnest - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:33 am:
Are as many of us continuing to underestimate him as we did when we thought he would never win the Republican Primary?
- Skirmisher - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:33 am:
Meaningless. The courts destroyed the ability of the voters to respond meaningfully to legislative incompetence/malfeasance when they chose to turn a blind eye on flagrant gerrymandering. My old high school civics text identifies gerrymandering as a form of corruption, but that was long, long ago.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 11:51 am:
What matters to me most is what’s happening on the ground. Right now unions are doing an excellent job in turning out to oppose localized right to work. Rauner is losing in the right to work department, at least right now.
Republicans’ national favorability was low, but they had a wave election and did quite well. The ILGA’s favorability is quite low, but Democrats have a supermajority.
- Darnell McAlister - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 12:00 pm:
You have to wonder if Rauner will veto all new revenue and use the Supreme Court decisions on pensions and healthcare to attempt to cut public employe pay, outsource, grab LGDF and freeze property taxes? That might prove to be a very popular position in the suburbs and parts of the city. Without cuts and freezes, I doubt Rauner will even consider playing ball on new revenue under the “never let a good crisis got to waste” theory…
- Rod - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 12:37 pm:
I posted before that there would be little or no buyers remorse relating to the election of Governor Rauner until the budget cuts actually impact the average citizen of Illinois in more significant ways. The polling data is not surprising to me in the least.
The electorate of Illinois does not want more taxation, they do not want vulnerable people to b adversely impacted by budget cuts either. If the solution is higher taxes then the mass of people want to be told the impact of the cuts on vulnerable populations will be minimal. Ignorance is bliss until it impacts you.
- Arizona Bob - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 12:40 pm:
Rauner is the first governor in my long memory to promote the painful, necessary steps to correct a huge ongoing problem. That won’t get you approval points, folks. Just like Congress, people hate the legislature but keep on re-electing, and all too frequently not even challenging, the often party picked slugs who represent them there.
Rauner’s got a painful plan, but the Dem leadership has no plan. No easy or painless choices, here folks. The people and government are going to have to suffer for this. The only question is who will Springfield hurt the most…
- Anon - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 12:56 pm:
In my personal experience, unscientific as it may be, the poll results are consistent with what I hear from “regular folks.” Under the dome, I hear different things. Would not be the first time the public and insider crowd sees things differently.
What this does tell me is that, if we end up with a long overtime session (and maybe even a shutdown of sorts), Rauner may at this juncture be better positioned to blame the legislature than vice versa. That may be especially true if he uses his campaign fund to run ads, though I assume the unions would quickly counter.
Hopefully things come together by May 31.
- Apocalypse Now - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 1:13 pm:
=“…“Sonny” and his crew seem to be doing a little or nothing of measure so far except engagin’ with the public, those polled on this blog would rate him much lower because we are watching closer, and not swayed by empty words.”=
Ah,yes. those low information voters.
- Formerpol - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 1:40 pm:
Rauner is the best Governor since Richard Ogilvie - who championed the income tax and was voted out to a future felon named Walker. We need a nasty, tightwad uncle -type Governor, not a warm, fuzzy one who can’t say no to anyone.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 1:41 pm:
- Apocalypse Now -,
The poll is a reflection on the governor.
He has nothing passed of consequence, no budget, no stated legislative agenda he is pushing for passage besides his “Tournaround Agenda” which is code for budget leverage…
… so what impression do people have? The talkin’, the travelin’, but not much governin’.
When a budget bears his name, when cuts bear his name… when choices have an owner, then that might bring a time when a reflection of Rauner will include governing.
Until then, it’s persona, not the reflection of the voters.
Please. Learn.
- Anonymous - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 1:50 pm:
- Rauner is the first governor in my long memory to promote the painful, necessary steps -
Not so long, apparently.
Gov. Quinn enacted the tier 2 pension system that Rauner is so fond of, and made enormous savings through Medicaid reform.
He also pushed hard for overall pension reform, though what passed wasnt upheld.
I could go on, but I’m sure all the examples must have slipped from that steel trap on top of your neck.
Oh yeah, and what part of painful and necessary is banking $2 billion in phony savings in next year’s budget?
- A guy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 1:59 pm:
====Oswego Willy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 1:41 pm:
- Apocalypse Now -,
The poll is a reflection on the governor.
He has nothing passed of consequence, no budget, no stated legislative agenda he is pushing for passage…” ====
Except that one that reached the magical 30/60 you always bring up. You know…that budget.
More to do for sure. But, be fair.
- Cheswick - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 2:01 pm:
My poll will be:
On January 1, 2015, multi-millionaire Bruce Rauner personally received $750,000 in Illinois income tax relief.
On April 3, 2015, Bruce Rauner ended funding to help autistic children.
Knowing the above facts, if the election were held today, would you vote for Pat Quinn or Bruce Rauner?
I just have to decide my target group.
- Arsenal - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 2:52 pm:
“Rauner is the best Governor since Richard Ogilvie - who championed the income tax and was voted out to a future felon named Walker.”
Goodness. All he’s done so far is sign an FY15 budget-fix that Madigan and Cullerton wrote, and then screwed that up with the Good Friday Massacre.
Can we have a little perspective?
- Arsenal - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 2:53 pm:
“Except that one that reached the magical 30/60 you always bring up. You know…that budget.”
It was an FY15 budget fix written by Madigan and Cullerton that Rauner thought so little of, he continued to make further budget cuts (then unmake them) and award further tax breaks.
It fits into that “nothing of consequence” category with several feet of clearance.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 2:57 pm:
===Except that one that reached the magical 30/60 you always bring up. You know…that budget.
More to do for sure. But, be fair.===
I would have added the FY2015 fix, but MJM is running the “Tournaround Agenda” to zero votes because Madigan thought he had a deal, then the $26 million Rauner Good Friday Cuts, only to re-fund the cuts, at the cost of trust.
Me ignoring the FY2015 fix was me being fair, lol.
By all means, point to that “success”, that was a true success, until it wasn’t
- Juvenal - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 3:18 pm:
Darnell:
There is not going to be any new revenue for Rauner to veto unless it’s Rauner’s tax increase.
At the end of the day, Democratic legislators and Democratic voters cannot force Rauner to raise taxes, nor will they try.
- Darnell McAlister - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 3:18 pm:
House Dems just filed property tax freeze amendments.
- RNUG - Monday, May 11, 15 @ 4:11 pm:
== Rauner is the best Governor since Richard Ogilvie ==
I was working for the state back then. Rauner has a long way to go to reach that level. Right now the best I would give him is slightly better than Blago … and that is still questionable in my mind.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 12, 15 @ 6:10 am:
Feel better, - Holy Smokes -?