Rating Action: Moody’s downgrades Chicago Board of Education, IL’s GO to Ba3; outlook negative
Global Credit Research - 13 May 2015
Ba3 rating applies to $6.2 billion of GO debt
New York, May 13, 2015 — Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded to Ba3 from Baa3 the rating on the Chicago Board of Education, IL’s $6.2 billion of outstanding general obligation (GO) debt. The Chicago Board of Education is the primary debt issuer for the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) (the district). The outlook remains negative.
SUMMARY RATINGS RATIONALE
The Ba3 rating reflects CPS’s steadily escalating pension contributions and use of reserves to fund those contributions. We believe pension costs will place increasing strain on the district’s precarious financial position absent material revenue growth or expenditure reduction, both of which appear increasingly difficult for the district to achieve. Based on the Illinois Supreme Court’s May 8 overturning of the statute that governs the State of Illinois’ (A3 negative) pensions, we believe that the district now has fewer options for reducing its own pension costs. We view the district’s ability to grow operating revenue as similarly constrained. In our opinion, state budget pressures may limit future state aid increases to the district. The district’s credit profile is also pressured by competing demands placed on the local property tax base from the debt and unfunded pension liabilities of the City of Chicago (Ba1 negative) and other overlapping local governments. Finally, the district’s governance ties to the city inform our credit opinion.
OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects our expectation that CPS’s budget pressures will intensify due to rising pension costs. The district’s net annual pension contribution will increase by 6% this year. In fiscal 2015, the district’s mandatory net annual pension contribution totals $635 million (an amount which equals the $697 million contribution less state support of $62 million). In fiscal 2014, the district’s mandatory net annual pension contribution totaled $601 million (an amount which equaled the $613 million contribution less state support of $12 million). Further increases are scheduled in future years. CPS officials are actively working to identify revenue enhancements and expenditure adjustments that will be needed to accommodate the increased payments, but solutions remain uncertain. This budget gap is a credit negative that is becoming more pronounced as fiscal 2016 approaches. The outlook also incorporates the likelihood of continued growth in the unfunded pension liabilities of the City of Chicago. The costs of servicing those liabilities exacerbate the practical limitations of generating revenue from a shared tax base.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP (or revise the outlook to stable)
• Revenue growth and/or reductions in other operating expenditures that enable the district to accommodate increased pension costs into annual operating budgets without reliance on non-recurring revenue sources
• District or state actions that halt the growth of the district’s unfunded pension liabilities
• Improvement in the City of Chicago’s credit profile that strengthens CPS’s credit quality given the two entities’ governance ties and coterminous tax base
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN
• A continuation of structurally imbalanced operations
• Narrowing of the district’s fund balances and liquidity
• Continued growth in the debt and/or unfunded pension liabilities of the district and/or overlapping governments
• Declines in the City of Chicago’s credit profile that weakens CPS’s credit quality given the two entities’ governance ties and coterminous tax base
Rating Action: Moody’s downgrades Chicago Park District, IL’s GO to Ba1; outlook negative
Global Credit Research - 13 May 2015
Ba1 rating applies to $616 million of GO debt
New York, May 13, 2015 — Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded to Ba1 from Baa1 the rating on the Chicago Park District (CPD), IL’s $616 million of outstanding general obligation (GO) debt. The Ba1 rating applies to $333 million of general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) debt and $283 million of general obligation limited tax (GOLT) debt. The outlook remains negative.
SUMMARY RATINGS RATIONALE
The Ba1 rating on CPD’s GOULT debt reflects the district’s governance ties to the City of Chicago (Ba1 negative). Based on the Illinois Supreme Court’s May 8 overturning of the statute that governs the State of Illinois’ (A3 negative) pensions, we believe that the city’s options for curbing growth in its own unfunded pension liabilities have narrowed considerably. We perceive increased risk that the city’s intensified pressures will adversely affect CPD’s financial operations and position. CPD’s tax base, which is coterminous with that of Chicago, is highly leveraged by the debt and unfunded pension obligations of the city and other overlapping governments. Our opinion weighs the severity of these challenges against the district’s credit attributes, which include an ample liquidity position; considerable ability to reduce expenditures; and manageable direct debt levels.
The Ba1 rating on CPD’s GOLT debt reflects the credit characteristics inherent in the GOULT rating and the sufficient debt service coverage provided by the debt service extension base (DSEB) levy that secures CPD’s GOLT debt. The DSEB is a dedicated debt service levy that is unlimited by rate but is limited by the amount of the DSEB. The district’s 2015 DSEB levy equaled $46.8 million, which provides adequate coverage as it exceeds maximum annual debt service (MADS) on outstanding GOLT debt.
OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the district’s governance ties to the City of Chicago, the GO rating of which carries a negative outlook. The outlook also incorporates the likelihood of continued growth in the city’s unfunded pension liabilities, and the costs of servicing those liabilities. The substantial funding needs of overlapping governments exacerbate the practical limitations of generating revenue from a shared tax base.
WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP
• Improvement in the City of Chicago’s credit profile that strengthens CPD’s credit quality given the two entities’ governance ties and coterminous tax base
• Change in governance framework that reduces the influence of the city on the district
WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN
• Declines in the City of Chicago’s credit profile that weakens CPD’s credit quality given the two entities’ governance ties and coterminous tax base
• Substantial reduction in the district’s reserves or liquidity
• Determination by a court of law that the current statute governing the district’s pension plan is unconstitutional
Services are scheduled for Saturday in Belleville for Janette Weatherall, former lobbyist for the Illinois Education Association.
Weatherall served IEA members and public education from 1993 until her retirement in 2013.
Visitation will be held from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. Saturday, May 16, with the funeral service following the visitation at 11:00 a.m.
All services will be held at Signal Hill United Methodist Church, 47 Signal Hill, Belleville, IL 62223.
I’ve known Janette since I started in this business. She was a sweet, kind and inspirational person. She was also a very hard worker and an inspired hire by the IEA. The union was primarily suburban and Downstate focused and had few African-American allies. Janette, who is black, helped build the IEA into the force it is today.
Janette had cancer, beat it, and was enjoying the good life in retirement when the cancer came back.
“My heart hurts,” Sen. Toi Hutchinson told me after I informed her of Janette’s passing yesterday. Mine does too.
On Wednesday, four unions — AFSCME Council 31, the Chicago Teachers Union, the Illinois Nurses Association and Teamsters Local 700 — urged Emanuel in a joint statement to drop the city’s court battle over his plan, given the state Supreme Court decision last week.
“We believe the Supreme Court’s ruling leaves no room for doubt that Chicago’s pension cuts also violate the plain language of the pension clause. In light of that decision and the city’s credit downgrade, we urge Mayor Emanuel to stop wasting time and money in a futile attempt to defend these unconstitutional cuts, and instead work with us to develop fair and constitutional solutions to funding city retirement plans,” the statement reads.
Chicago still has a winning argument: Its reforms do not “diminish or impair” pension benefits. That means the Illinois Constitution is not violated.
The reforms include some reductions in how future benefit increases are calculated, and they require modest increases to employee contributions. But they couple these changes with massive increases in the city’s contributions to the two funds — from $177 million in 2014 to an estimated $650 million in 2021.
The two pension funds were going broke. Twenty-eight of the 31 unions with members in these funds supported the plan because they recognized that in a few years their pension assets would be depleted and benefits would not be paid.
The city, for the first time, would be legally responsible for the funds’ liabilities. That’s a major change. Under state laws that established the pension funds, the obligation to pay benefits has always been on the funds themselves, not the city.
The city has had no obligation beyond a specified contribution to the funds each year. If the city paid its required contribution and the pension funds still went broke, the city had no legal obligation to step in and beneficiaries would receive pennies on the dollar.
Now the city has the obligation. Far from “diminishing or impairing” pension benefits, the city’s reform plan strengthens and protect benefits that were endangered.
But aren’t “reductions in how future benefit increases are calculated” a diminishment, even though they may have saved the funds from insolvency?
Ralph Martire, director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, said the latest downgrade to junk bond status will cost the city an additional $200 million to $300 million, on top of its existing budget deficit and employee pension fund shortfalls.
“It’s already looking at a deficit north of $250 to $300 million. Now pile on another couple hundred million – let’s be conservative – from the impact of the downgrade of the bond status. Now pile on the $550 million increase in pension funding that’s due this year, and you’re talking about a problem that’s collectively in excess of $1 billion, or a third of their budget for current services,” he said.
Chicago may have to pay banks as much as $2.2 billion after Moody’s Investors Service dropped its credit rating to junk, deepening the fiscal crisis in the third-largest U.S. city.
The company’s decision Tuesday to cut Chicago’s $8.1 billion of general obligations two ranks to Ba1, one step below investment grade, allows banks to demand that the city repay debt early and exposes it to fees to end swaps contracts, Moody’s said in a statement. Mayor Rahm Emanuel plans to refinance $900 million of debt to reduce the penalties. […]
City officials may be able to persuade banks not to demand the penalties as long as Chicago can move ahead with its refinancing plan, said Johnson.
“I would guess that most of their counterparties would be fine letting them go,” he said. “If they end up not selling it, then that creates significantly more risk.”
Those big brains in the Daley administration really messed things up, didn’t they? But those swaps probably should’ve been renegotiated long ago.
*** UPDATE *** Press release…
Legislation sponsored by state Senator Daniel Biss (D – Evanston) seeks to shore up local pension funds by diverting state payments from an employer into the local pension fund when the employer fails to make the required pension contributions.
“Just as we must hold our state government accountable for pension contributions, so should we hold Illinois’ local governments accountable,” Sen. Biss said. “This legislation provides the enforcement mechanisms necessary to first encourage and then require the adequate funding of local pension funds.”
For decades, the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund (IMRF) has had the ability to divert State payments to employers who failed to make their required pension payments. This is the main reason why IMRF is in excellent fiscal health, unlike so many other pension funds in Illinois. In recent years, police and fire pension funds and the Chicago municipal and laborer’s pension funds have acquired this power as well. Under House Bill 3484, the other local public pension funds, including those of the Chicago Public Schools, Cook County, and the Chicago Transit Authority, would be granted this ability.
“The history of pensions in Illinois makes one thing crystal clear: it is absolutely imperative that employers make adequate payments into the pension systems,” said Biss. “Last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling only serves to underscore the importance of this essential truth. Our legislation takes a major step to ensure that we will not repeat the mistakes of the past.”
House Bill 3484 passed out of committee today and now goes to the Senate floor for a vote.
The CTA is already enacting contingency plans to absorb deep cuts in state funding sought by Gov. Bruce Rauner, the transit agency’s top finance official said Wednesday.
The CTA will erase from this year’s budget anticipated revenue of $21 million in state subsidies that would have helped the CTA to offset some of the cost of providing reduced fares and free rides to disabled riders and some senior citizens, Ron DeNard, CTA chief financial officer, told the CTA board at its monthly meeting.
The CTA received about $28 million in state funding last year for the reduced-fare and free-rides programs, which are mandated by state and federal laws.
Rauner is seeking to zero-out the state subsidy in fiscal 2016.
CTA President Forrest Claypool has said that the actual cost to the transit agency for the two programs exceeds $100 million a year in uncollected fares.
Wanted to give some props to the Governor and Rep. Tim Butler for addressing the Curb Your Car Crowd at the Governor’s mansion. The Governor didn’t ride, but said he would if we could find him a seat that didn’t hurt his tookus. (My word, not his)
I think the Viking hat really sets off the moment.
A Kane County resolution calling for state reform got thumbs up from county board members and union members who cited the county as an example of how efficiently government should operate.
Scott Roscoe, of the Fox Valley Building and Construction Trades Council, spoke at several meetings earlier this month regarding the resolution, but his speech had a different tone Tuesday when he conceded the county board’s work on the matter has not been easy.
He thanked the county board for what the resolution says — and what it doesn’t say.
Gov. Bruce Rauner asked the county board, like other governmental bodies, to pass a resolution — provided by his office — supporting his Illinois Turnaround Agenda. Union members have protested Rauner’s reforms accusing the governor of attacking the middle class and unions.
Kane County officials chose to draft their own document that does not touch on any of the controversial issues in Rauner’s version while touting the county’s best practices.
“We needed something that (Rauner) would value that didn’t cost us our unity,” Lauzen said.
The result was a resolution that passed 21 to 3 Tuesday, with only three Aurora-based Democrats objecting. The vote signaled a bipartisan win for a document that calls for budget and pension reform in Springfield while also being a document local union supporters, like Fox Valley Building Trades President Scott Roscoe, lined up to support Tuesday.
“I rise today to thank our county board,” Roscoe said. “Thank you for not including support for right to work, repeal of the prevailing wage act or bans against project labor agreements. We all agree Springfield has work to do. The state of Illinois should be looking to Kane County to see how efficient and effective government operates and how to work within its means.”
In reply, county board member Mike Kenyon, a former chairman of the Kane County Republican Party, voiced his appreciation for local unions.
“I’ve come to realize that if we didn’t have organized labor we wouldn’t have paid vacations. We wouldn’t have health insurance. We wouldn’t have sick days. And I don’t think it’s fair for anybody to blame any of the state’s problems on organized labor,” Kenyon said.
* Related…
* Chamber walks a thin line between Emanuel, Rauner: But the only specifics the chamber’s resolution gets into are “minimizing regulatory burdens and mandates” and “reasonable reforms to minimize the high employer cost related to workers compensation and unemployment insurance.” Nary a word about stripping power from unions, right-to-work, term limits on lawmakers or the prevailing wage. Those omissions are intentional, says Michael Reever, the chamber’s vice president of government relations. “It’s very clear which issues we support and which issues we think the governor should focus on,” says Reever. The ones referenced in the resolution—workers comp, unemployment insurance and tort reforms—”are issues we have supported for decades.”
* My old pal Becky Carroll pointed me today to Teri Ulatoski DeGrado’s Facebook post…
Transport help needed. Please read and share.
We have a huge transport this week with over 70 dogs, more than 40 of which need to get from St. Louis to Joliet and many on to Kenosha! The schedule is below.
Can you spare a few hours on Saturday to help save some lives? Many, MANY puppies, so lots of puppy breath.
To answer a few questions:
1) NO the dogs do not bark the entire trip (they usually all fall asleep within 5-10 minutes of getting on the road.
2) NO you don’t have to worry about taking a dog home! These dogs are all going to rescue, fosters or adoptive homes. That is why they need to get up here .. to start their Happily Ever After!
3) NO you don’t need to have a large vehicle. A regular car, hatchback or small SUV works great! If you look at the sizes of the dogs and puppies, most are under 20 lbs (and lots are much smaller!). If you need crates, I have some extra, but many times the dogs don’t even need to be crated. Even a few dogs in your car helps!!
Leg 3IM: St. Louis, MO to Springfield, IL (1 hr. 35 min./ 98 miles)
Passengers 1-7, 14, 17-31, 33-43, 49-54, 65-71
11:05 am to 12:40 pm
Leg 4IM: Springfield, IL to Bloomington, IL (1 hr. 10 min. / 67 miles)
Kirk for Senate
Mark Kirk, GOP Incumbent US Senator from Illinois
Agency: Mentzer Media, DC
Total Order: $135,170
5/14 – 6/6/15
:60 spots
Networks: CNN, FXNC, MNBC
All dayparts bought
5170 / Chicago Interconnect
Attempting to get the spot. Watch this space.
…Adding… The Kirk campaign says it won’t be distributing the TV ad until tonight.
* I’ve tried two or three times over the past week to get Speaker Madigan to talk about why he is not voting on bills this year. No luck, except he joked in agreement last week when I suggested that part of it was to mess with my head. Reporters asked him about it today…
Madigan was also asked why he's not voting very often this session. "Confused," was his response. About what? He just laughed.
* I’ve seen this very same argument made over and over in recent weeks. Rep. Jeanne Ives, for instance, brought it up during an appearance this week on “Chicago Tonight,” and the Illinois Policy Institute has continually harped on it. Here’s another one from Michael Lucci at the Illinois Policy Institute. Emphasis added…
Though the [Illinois Supreme Court] justices pointed to more tax revenue as the answer, recent history proves tax hikes cannot fix Illinois’ pension problem. In 2011, the General Assembly raised income taxes on every household by a staggering 67 percent, bringing in an additional $31 billion in tax revenue that largely went to pension contributions over the next four years. Despite an additional $7.5 billion per year in additional funding, the state’s pension liabilities continued to skyrocket, increasing by $7.2 billion in 2011, then by $11.5 billion in 2012, then by $6 billion in 2013 and $10.5 billion in 2014. The state staggered along with billions more in borrowing and unpaid bills.
For the four years from 2011-2014, during which income-tax hikes brought in an additional $31 billion in revenue for pensions and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose for a net gain of 64 percent, the state’s total unfunded pension liability still rose by a staggering $35 billion. These are the makings of a completely broken system.
The essential argument is, the tax hike didn’t work. It doesn’t matter how much money you throw at it, the pension crisis is unsolvable because the unfunded liability continues to rise.
But the important issue for policy-makers and budget-drafters isn’t really the unfunded liability. It’s how much the state has to pay every year to keep up with former Gov. Jim Edgar’s pension “ramp” schedule.
* Even so, let’s look at why the unfunded liability has risen so much. COGFA took a gander back in February…
Chart 1 is based upon calculations using the market value of assets for all years, including FY 2014. The full effects of the large investment losses during FY 2009 and investment gains for FY 2011 are therefore reflected in the bars for these years. These extremely large investment losses are the main reason for the significant jump in unfunded liabilities during FY 2009. The asset smoothing approach, required by Public Act 96-0043, only recognizes 20% of the FY 2009 investment losses during the current year. Chart 1 above recognizes 100% of the FY 2009 investment losses in FY 2009, and is therefore a much more realistic representation of the retirement systems’ true financial condition. In FY 2013, the market value of investment returns were above the actuarially-assumed rate for all systems. This helped control the growth of unfunded liabilities to a certain degree, however they still rose primarily due to insufficient contributions made by the State.
In anticipation of the June 30, 2014 actuarial valuations, the State Universities Retirement System (SURS), the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS), and the Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS) all voted to reduce their assumed rates of investment return as per a recommendation by the State Actuary. On April 8, 2014, SERS voted to reduce their assumed rate of investment return (ROI) from 7.75% to 7.25% as recommended, with SURS following suit on June 13, 2014. TRS did not receive a specific rate recommendation from the State Actuary but voted to change its ROI assumption from 8.0% to 7.5% on June 24, 2014. Although investment performance far exceeded actuarial expectations in FY 2014, the rate of investment return assumption changes helped contribute heavily to an increase in total accrued liability, and hence, the significant increase in unfunded liability of $7.1 billion in FY 2014.
During FY 2014 the total unfunded liabilities utilizing the actuarial value of assets increased to $111.2 billion from $100.5 billion in FY 2013. This equates an increase in unfunded liabilities of 10.6 % over FY 2013, due primarily to actuarially insufficient State contribution amounts and the lingering effects of the investment losses caused by the 2008 financial crisis. In FY 2014, market value investment returns for all five State systems were above the actuariallyassumed rates of return, as shown below:
While all systems earned positive returns on a market value basis, the asset smoothing approach, required by Public Act 96-0043, only recognizes 20% of the FY 2014 investment returns. FY 2013 was the last fiscal year that investment losses from the 2008 financial crisis were “smoothed” in the retirement systems’ annual actuarial valuations. With negative returns in the double-digits no longer being recognized, the investment gains of the last five years are now subject to smoothing. This has resulted in a cumulative market value of assets that is now higher than the actuarial value of assets, and therefore the funded ratio using the market value of assets is considerably higher than the funded ratio using the actuarial (smoothed) value of assets
So, a Great Recession accounting gimmick is backfiring on us.
The largest factor was the insufficient employer contributions which caused a $38.7 billion unfunded increase [out of $92.47 billion] during the period under review [start of Edgar ramp in FY 1996 through FY 2014] . Changes in actuarial assumptions; including the changes of interest rate assumptions in FY 2014, caused an additional increase of $19.8 billion
And, as anyone who knows anything about the Edgar ramp understands, those insufficient employer contributions were a feature, not a bug. The ramp put off the problem into the future, which is now.
* But the Edgar ramp will pretty much level out for the next few years, and then the state will see a payment decrease in 2020 when the Quinn pension borrowing is paid off…
And, of course, we could just change the ramp, do another obligation bond and lower the targeted funding percentage. That would increases state costs in the long run, but it would take immediate pressure off of us now.
Without revenues from the expired tax hike, which even the Policy Institute admits went to the pension funds, this is a huge problem. With the revenues, it’s a manageable problem.
Unless somebody can come up with a magical solution that can pass muster with the Illinois Supreme Court, however, it’s time we start working on a practical fix while ignoring the doomsday prophets who claim nothing can be done.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
“I never did give them hell. I just told the truth, and they thought it was hell.”
- President Harry S. Truman
“A plan to financially reward Exelon Corp. for producing no-carbon energy and potentially save three Illinois nuclear plants from closure would cost ratepayers $1.6 billion over five years and strain budgets for financially strapped businesses and municipal governments, a study released Tuesday found.” - Associated Press, 4/21/15
By applying legislative mandates in SB 1585 / HB 3293 to historical data on Illinois electric costs and consumption, the Kestler Energy Consulting study simply calculated how much of a rate hike Exelon’s legislation would impose on families, businesses and local governments statewide.
Just say no to the Exelon bailout. Vote no on SB1585/HB3293.
BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.
For the second time in as many weeks, Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan summoned the entire Illinois House for a daylong hearing that put the spotlight on business-friendly measures sought by Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner.
Rauner has joined the national push for what’s known in political circles as tort reform — setting geographic limits on lawsuits to stop trial lawyers from shopping for venues, restricting medical expense calculations to include amounts paid rather than billed, and allowing defendants to spread their liability to other parties. The idea is to limit multimillion-dollar legal judgments in civil lawsuits.
Madigan’s hearing put a human face on what those changes would mean, with lawmakers hearing testimony from nearly a dozen victims of medical malpractice and corporate negligence who told stories of botched diagnoses, mishandled pregnancies and a deadly road collision. […]
Noticeably excluded from the hearing were representatives from the business community, who were left to air their views at a sparsely attended news conference in a basement room at the Capitol.
“There are two sides to civil justice reform, not just what you’re seeing up on the House floor today,” said Todd Maisch, president of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce. “Hopefully, we’ll get, I’ll get, a chance to go ahead and make our case to the House and the full legislature in support of the governor’s agenda.”
Rauner, a Republican, also wants a constitutional amendment in 2018 capping what he broadly phrases “unreasonable damages.”
Elizabeth Sauter is the widow of state police trooper James Sauter, who was in his squad car on the shoulder of I-294 when a truck driver — who’d logged too many hours behind the wheel — fell asleep. The semi crossed over lanes of traffic, and caused a fiery crash.
“Anyone thinking about voting yes to a bill that would put a cap on civil wrongful death lawsuits in the state of Illinois would also be voting yes to killing more innocent civilians,” Elizabeth Sauter told members of the House. “Putting a cap on penalizing these companies just further encourages them to make careless decisions and continue unsafe practices. Putting a cap on these lawsuits mean you care more about big businesses than you do the citizens that you represent.”
Sauter says the $10.8 million settlement she was awarded a year ago shouldn’t be considered “winning the lottery.” Sauter says it was never about money; she says he’s using it to help pay for a state police memorial park in Springfield. Sauter also says the money is being used to care for her deceased husband’s family and to create a scholarship at his high school. She says she also is on the board of The Chicago 100 Club — an organization that helps families of first responders killed in the line of duty.
Jennifer Hill of Huntley told lawmakers doctors delayed performing a C-section during the birth of her oldest son, Ryan, which she said led to profound brain damage. The jury in her family’s civil suit awarded millions, money the mother of three says will ensure her son’s health care is managed.
“The verdict has secured Ryan’s future,” Hill said.
But Indiana resident Crystal Bobbitt, who said her daughter suffers from cerebral palsy, received less than 10 percent of $15 million a jury awarded her family in their malpractice case. She said those responsible for injuring her daughter should pay for her care and that she would rather not have to rely on Medicaid and other sources.
John Pastuovic of the Illinois Civil Justice League, which argues that too much litigation hurts the business environment, said Illinois has become a magnet for plaintiff attorneys across the country because of the “lawsuit-friendly courts.” A report from the group found disparities in case filing and verdict totals between Cook and five southern Illinois counties versus the rest of the state.
* React from Gov. Rauner’s office…
“Illinois has one of the worst lawsuit climates in the country, and reform is essential to address the shortcomings of current laws so we can begin to grow the economy. Reforms are needed to stop venue shopping, clarify liability and to repeal the jury compensation law passed during last year’s veto session. The governor is pleased to see lawmakers discussing reforms to restore sanity in our courts.”
I’m not sure what Rauner saw yesterday, but that wasn’t what happened.
Even so, it’s a sign that the governor isn’t letting this stuff get under his skin.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
The cable industry is asking lawmakers to place a NEW 5% tax on satellite TV service. The satellite tax is not about fairness, equity or parity – it’s a tax increase on the 1.3 million Illinois families and businesses who subscribe to satellite TV.
Satellite Tax Will Hurt Illinois Families and Small Businesses
• Satellite TV subscribers will see their monthly bills go up 5%.
• This tax will impact every bar, restaurant and hotel that subscribes to satellite TV service, which will translate into higher prices, decreased revenues, and fewer jobs.
• Rural Illinois has no choice: In many parts of Illinois, cable refuses to provide TV service to rural communities. Satellite TV is their only option.
Satellite Tax Is Not About Parity or Fairness
• Cable’s claim that this discriminatory tax is justified because satellite TV doesn’t pay local franchise fees could not be further from the truth. Cable pays those fees to local towns and cities in exchange for the right to bury cables in the public rights of way—a right that cable companies value in the tens of billions of dollars in their SEC filings.
• Satellite companies don’t pay franchise fees for one simple reason: We use satellites—unlike cable, we don’t need to dig up streets and sidewalks to deliver our TV service.
• Making satellite subscribers pay franchise fees—or, in this case, an equivalent amount in taxes—would be like taxing the air. It’s no different than making airline passengers pay a fee for laying railroad tracks. They don’t use; they shouldn’t have to pay for it.
A supervisor at the Illinois Department of Revenue made a mistake last fall. She decided to help out with a backlog of tax returns in her department.
For that, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees filed a grievance. The union claimed the supervisor violated a clause in AFSCME’s contract by doing “bargaining unit” work. The case went to a mediator. The union demanded overtime pay for the employees whose work the supervisor performed. Both sides settled instead on comp time for the workers. The supervisor got verbally reprimanded by the union.
Welcome to Illinois, where trying to be productive gets penalized.
When Gov. Bruce Rauner talks about the grip public employee unions hold over state government, this is an example of what he means. The demands in AFSCME’s 196-page contract often controvert the interests of taxpayers. From overtime costs to seniority rules to the endless grievance process, public employee unions can be an enormous drain on state resources. Unions resist progress, efficiency, modernization — anything that threatens a union job.
That’s one reason why Rauner kicked off his first month as governor with a clenched fist toward organized labor. It can be tough to streamline state government alongside obstructionists.
* AFSCME Council 31 Executive Director Roberta Lynch responded via a letter to the editor….
…It doesn’t take much thought, however, to realize that our union’s action was squarely in the public interest, keeping costs down by preventing managers from wasting time on work assigned to lower-paid employees. If the agency doesn’t have enough clerical workers, it should hire more instead of overpaying at a management rate.
In reality, public-service workers in state government are helpers and problem-solvers. Every day American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees members protect kids, care for the elderly and vulnerable, respond to emergencies and keep their communities safe. By having a voice at work through our union, they are able to advocate for the tools and resources they need to do their jobs. The union contract also ensures fair treatment, protects against political interference and helps to limit outsourcing deals that place private profit ahead of the public good.
We want to work with anyone of goodwill to address the state’s real challenges, constructively, together. But that requires mutual respect, something lacking in both the governor’s incessant pummeling of union members and your editorial’s misleading complaints.
Senate President John Cullerton is dusting off an old pension overhaul plan he says has a chance to beat the constitutional odds.
Four days after the Illinois Supreme Court ruled that a 2013 plan to reduce pension benefits for state workers was unconstitutional, the Democrat from Chicago made a pitch for his proposal to a special committee working behind closed doors in the governor’s office. […]
But, in addition to being on the table during the meetings being sponsored by Gov. Bruce Rauner, members of the House Personnel and Pensions Committee could publicly discuss the Cullerton plan as early as Wednesday.
Cullerton’s plan seeks to avoid the constitutional ban on reducing pension benefits by offering employees a choice. For example, a worker could choose between having future raises count toward their pension or freezing their current salary and then receiving a 3 percent compounded cost-of-living adjustment once they retire.
Cullerton estimates his latest plan could save the state about $1 billion a year, a fraction of the pension system’s overall debt, but savings he says could be spent elsewhere. Cullerton pitched the idea Tuesday before a group of lawmakers and Rauner officials examining the pension idea, but overall support remains unclear.
“We’ll keep the Supreme Court decision close by,” said Madigan spokesman Steve Brown. “It’s an important topic that can’t be ignored.”
A Rauner spokesman declined to comment specifically on Cullerton’s proposal, saying “the governor has his own pension plan but recognizes that he will need to work with the General Assembly to fix our pension problems, which he believes should include a constitutional referendum.” […]
Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, said Rauner’s plan would bring about more savings than the one put forth by Cullerton but said lawmakers may need to pass several plans in order to see which would withstand any legal tests. “You can do both and see which survives, if that’s possible,” said Brady, who sits on the pension overhaul group.
It’s not being immediately rejected, which is a good sign.
However, despite the state’s dire financial condition serving as an impetus to find consensus on a new pension overhaul plan, some lawmakers warn that a solution should not be hastily agreed upon.
“Time is of the essence, but working too fast and therefore getting it wrong is not good time management,” said state Sen. Daniel Biss, an Evanston Democrat and a leading negotiator of the original plan. “There are a lot of limitations placed on the legislature by this ruling. We need to think carefully about what the options are, what rules can be utilized and design something accordingly.”
[Rep. Elaine Nekritz] said there may be legal questions about Cullerton’s plan as well.
“There are certainly lawyers who say that the opinion precludes that plan,” Nekritz said. “I think it is something we will need more discussion on.”
The House Personnel and Pensions Committee will hold a hearing on the Cullerton plan on Wednesday. Nekritz, the committee chair, said the meeting was scheduled before last week’s ruling.
* Former AFSCME Council 31 Executive Director Henry Bayer still regularly blasts out e-mails to his friends and acquaintances. Here’s his latest missive…
Did the City wait too long to raise revenue? Shouldn’t it have moved before getting to junk bond status? CFO made it quite clear long ago what needed to be done, just chose not to do it
“The reason that we have received the rating agency downgrades that we have is not because we can’t afford our pensions, but rather because we haven’t funded them. Chicago is a highly levered organization, and the issue that the rating agencies and investors have with Chicago is that we can resolve our issues, we just have chosen not to.
“What we know, however, is that the minute we pull the lever of increasing revenue, our ability to drive reform in the system will be gone. The city needs to implement reforms that will promote long-term health, even if it means short-term stress and discomfort for people in the financial community about the fact that we haven’t increased revenues at this point. We are balancing revenues with reforms. That’s what you saw with the recent Chicago Park District reform proposal. When we enact reforms, we increase revenues. When the employees increase what they pay into the system, the state increases its contribution multiplier.”
I have enormous respect for Lois Scott, and that seems like a reasonable approach. But the process dragged out far too long, so Moody’s eventually lost patience and now the City is in junk bond territory.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015 - Posted by Advertising Department
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Following the announcement that Meat Loaf was canceling his Illinois State Fair performance, fairgoers took to the phones. Calls came into the Illinois State Fair office with people pleading with state fair staffers to the keep Styx and Tesla on the Grandstand schedule. Ask and you shall receive! Keeping with our theme of Growing Illinois, the Illinois State Fair is pleased to announce Styx, a band with Illinois ties, and Tesla will remain on the Grandstand lineup.
Styx is entering their second decade of averaging over 100 shows a year, and fans repeatedly remark about the bands energy which is apparent in each and every time they take the stage.
Tesla is touring once again with four of its five original band members. Known for their down to earth, melodic tunes, this multi-platinum-selling rock band is once again wowing crowds worldwide. The group is best known for songs like, “What You Give,” and “Love Song,” and credits their loyal fan base (and their younger generations) for their years of success.
Tickets for the Wednesday, August 19thshow will go on sale via Ticketmaster on May 16th. Tickets will be available for purchase at the Illinois State Fair office the following Monday, May 18th.
Tickets to see Styx and Tesla will range from $35 for VIP tickets to $13 for Tier 3 track tickets.
Well, at least now we know the musical tastes of the new State Fair manager.
I mean, really, I saw Styx way back in 1978. It was a decent show I suppose, but I only went because Thin Lizzy was the opening act
Rating Action: Moody’s downgrades Chicago, IL to Ba1, affecting $8.9B of GO, sales, and motor fuel tax debt; outlook negative
Global Credit Research - 12 May 2015
Also downgrades senior and second lien water bonds to Baa1 and Baa2 and downgrades senior and second lien sewer bonds to Baa2 and Baa3, affecting $3.8B; outlook negative
New York, May 12, 2015 — Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded to Ba1 from Baa2 the rating on the City of Chicago, IL’s $8.1 billion of outstanding general obligation (GO) debt; $542 million of outstanding sales tax revenue debt; and $268 million of outstanding and authorized motor fuel tax revenue debt.
We have also downgraded the following ratings on debt secured by net revenues of Chicago’s water and sewer enterprises: to Baa1 from A2 on $38 million of outstanding senior lien water revenue bonds; to Baa2 from A3 on $2.3 billion of outstanding second lien water revenue bonds; to Baa2 from A3 on $35 million of outstanding senior lien sewer revenue bonds; and to Baa3 from Baa1 on $1.5 billion of outstanding second lien sewer revenue bonds.
We have also downgraded to Ba2 from Baa3 the rating on $6 million of outstanding MetraMarket Certificates of Participation (COPs), Series 2010A, and to Ba3 from Ba1 the rating on $3 million of outstanding Fullerton/Milwaukee COPs, Series 2011A.
Finally, we have affirmed the Speculative Grade (SG) short term rating on $112 million of Chicago’s outstanding Sales Tax Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2002.
The outlook on all long term ratings remains negative.
SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE
The Ba1 rating on Chicago’s GO debt incorporates expected growth in the city’s highly elevated unfunded pension liabilities. Based on the Illinois Supreme Court’s May 8 overturning of the statute that governs the State of Illinois’ (A3 negative) pensions, we believe that the city’s options for curbing growth in its own unfunded pension liabilities have narrowed considerably. Whether or not the current statutes that govern Chicago’s pension plans stand, we expect the costs of servicing Chicago’s unfunded liabilities will grow, placing significant strain on the city’s financial operations absent commensurate growth in revenue and/or reductions in other expenditures. The magnitude of the budget adjustments that will be required of the city are significant. Furthermore, Chicago’s tax base is highly leveraged by the debt and unfunded pension obligations of the city, as well as those of overlapping governments. Balanced against the city’s many credit challenges are several attributes, the greatest of which is the city’s broad legal authority to tap into its large and diverse tax base for increased revenue.
The Ba1 rating on Chicago’s sales tax and motor fuel tax debt reflects the absence of legal segregation of pledged revenue from the general operations of the city. This lack of separation caps the ratings at the city’s GO rating, despite sound maximum annual debt service (MADS) coverage provided by pledged revenue.
The Baa1 rating on Chicago’s senior lien water revenue bonds reflects the water enterprise’s large and diverse service area that extends well beyond city boundaries; the Chicago City Council’s unlimited rate setting authority; and sound debt service coverage. These credit attributes are balanced against challenges including an elevated debt ratio and the water system’s status as an enterprise of the city, a connection which we believe links the system’s credit profile to that of the city’s GO. The Baa2 rating on the city’s second lien water revenue bonds is based on the credit characteristics of the senior lien water revenue bonds and the subordinate lien pledge of net water system revenue. The Baa2 rating on Chicago’s senior lien sewer revenue bonds reflects similar credit characteristics as the senior lien water revenue bonds and also incorporates the sewer system’s relatively smaller service area, the boundaries of which are conterminous with those of the city. The Baa3 rating on the city’s second lien sewer revenue bonds is based on the credit characteristics of the senior lien sewer revenue bonds and the subordinate pledge of net sewer system revenue.
The Ba2 rating on the MetraMarket COPs, Series 2010A, reflects the tax increment financing (TIF) district’s moderate equalized assessed valuations (EAV) and sound debt service coverage provided by pledged revenue. The Ba3 rating on the Fullerton/Milwaukee COPs, Series 2011A, reflects the TIF district’s small size, negative trend in incremental EAV growth, and the COPs’ subordinate lien on pledged TIF revenue, which is first used to pay debt service on certain series of the city’s GO debt. The ratings on both series of COPs incorporate the relationship of the TIFs with the city’s GO credit profile.
The SG short term rating on the Sales Tax Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2002, is based on the credit fundamentals inherent in the city’s Ba1 long term sales tax rating and the conditional liquidity support associated with the bonds.
OUTLOOK
Our negative outlook reflects our expectation that Chicago’s credit challenges will continue, both in the near term and in the long term. Immediate credit challenges include potential draws on liquidity associated with rating triggers embedded in the city’s letters of credit (LOCs), standby bond purchase agreement (SBPA), lines of credit, direct bank loans, and swaps. The current rating actions give the counterparties of these transactions the option to immediately demand up to $2.2 billion in accelerated principal and accrued interest and associated termination fees. Of this amount, the GO and sales tax revenue rating actions trigger $1.7 billion of potential payments; the second lien water revenue rating action triggers $99 million of potential payments; and the second lien sewer revenue rating action triggers $355 million of potential payments.
The negative outlook also reflects our expectation that Chicago’s credit quality will weaken as unfunded liabilities of the Municipal, Laborer, Police, and Fire pension plans grow and exert increased pressure on the city’s operating budget. In the near term, Chicago’s administration must comply with a 179% contribution increase to its Police and Fire pension plans in 2016.
Developments involving the Municipal and Laborer plans present longer term risks to the city’s credit profile. In our opinion, the Illinois Supreme Court’s May 8 ruling raises the risk that the statute governing Chicago’s Municipal and Laborer pension plans will eventually be overturned. If so, the city’s obligation to fund the Municipal and Laborer plans would likely revert to that which existed before the statute took effect in January 2015. Under the prior funding requirements, the city’s pension contributions were well below the plans’ actuarial requirements. Therefore, if the Municipal and Laborer statute is overturned, and no other adjustments are made to plan revenues and/or expenditures, we believe the plans will continue to extinguish assets to pay annuitants. As the plans move toward insolvency, the city’s credit standing will continue to deteriorate, given our view that the state may eventually implement legislation forcing Chicago to pay annuitants directly. Annuitant payments would materially exceed current employer contribution levels. In our view, Chicago’s ability and willingness to fund annuitant payments, should they be required of the city, is uncertain.
WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATINGS GO UP (or revise the outlook to stable)
- City or state actions that halt the growth of the city’s unfunded pension liabilities
- Revenue growth and/or reductions in other operating expenditures that enable the city to accommodate increased pension costs into annual operating budgets
- Demonstrated legal separation of pledged revenue from the city’s general operations (sales tax and motor fuel tax ratings)
WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATINGS GO DOWN
- Determination by a court of law that the current statute governing the city’s Municipal and Laborer plans is unconstitutional
- Continued growth in the debt and/or unfunded pension liabilities of the city and/or overlapping governments
- Narrowing of the city’s fund balances and liquidity
OBLIGOR PROFILE
The City of Chicago, with a 2010 US Census population of 2.7 million, is the largest city in the State of Illinois and the third most populous city in the US. Chicago’s water enterprise serves an estimated population of 5.3 million in northeast Illinois consisting of residents of the city as well as 125 suburban communities. Chicago’s sewer enterprise serves 2.7 million city residents.
LEGAL SECURITY
Chicago’s GO bonds are secured by a pledge to levy a tax unlimited as to rate and amount to pay debt service. The city’s outstanding CP bank bonds are secured by the city’s GO full faith and credit pledge but do not benefit from a dedicated levy.
Chicago’s sales tax revenue bonds are secured by a senior lien pledge on both receipts of the city’s local home rule sales tax revenue and the city’s share of state sales tax collections.
Chicago’s motor fuel tax revenue bonds are secured by a senior lien pledge on 75% of the city’s annual allocation of state motor fuel taxes as well as additional revenues pledged by the city that primarily consist of dock licensing fees collected from tour boats operating on the Chicago River.
Chicago’s senior lien water revenue bonds are secured by a senior lien on the net revenue of the city’s water enterprise. Chicago’s second lien water revenue bonds are secured by a second lien on the net revenue of the city’s water enterprise. Chicago’s senior lien sewer revenue bonds are secured by a senior lien on the net revenue of the city’s sewer enterprise. Chicago’s second lien sewer revenue bonds are secured by a second lien on the net revenue of the city’s sewer enterprise.
The MetraMarket COPs, Series 2010A, and the Fullerton/Milwaukee COPs, Series 2011A, are secured by a pledge of payments made by the city on developers’ notes to finance redevelopment in the respective TIF districts. Neither series of COPs is an obligation of the City of Chicago. The city’s payments on the respective development notes have been assigned to the trustees by the developers as security on the COPs.
One thing the city needs to do right away is separate those special funds from the general operating fund. But that’s only a small step.
“While Chicago’s financial crisis is very real and at our doorsteps, today’s irresponsible decision by Moody’s to downgrade the City’s credit by two steps goes far beyond that reality. Their decision was driven solely by the overturning of a state pension bill that did not include Chicago’s pension reform, yet they did not downgrade the State of Illinois. Moody’s is out of step with other rating agencies – by as many as six steps – as they refuse to acknowledge Chicago’s growing economy, progress we have made on our legacy financial liabilities, balancing four budgets without raising property taxes while adding to our reserves, securing pension reforms for two of the City’s four funds to preserve and protect retirements for 61,000 employees that were previously in danger, and the progress we are now making with our partners in labor at the other two city funds. This action by Moody’s is not only premature, but it is irresponsible to play politics with Chicago’s financial future by pushing the City to increase taxes on residents without reform. I am committed to focus on both reform and revenue to address Chicago’s fiscal crisis, and we will continue our work in Springfield and with our partners in labor to ensure we will always meet our obligations, protect the retirements of our workforce, continue to deliver vital city services, while protecting our taxpayers.”
“(I)t is irresponsible to play politics with Chicago’s financial future by pushing the City to increase taxes on residents without reform.” Heh. Sounds a bit like the governor.
One analyst was sympathetic to the mayor’s argument that Moody’s acted too quickly, but noted the message being sent about Emanuel’s leadership as he enters a second term.
“A cut below investment grade is a major statement, implying that there is material risk to the city not paying its bondholders on time or in full,” said Matt Fabian, a managing partner at Municipal Market Analytics. “To have gone there without waiting to see the city’s approach to the current budget gap, or whether or not they will raise revenues is clear demonstration of a lack of confidence in city management. In other words, they see little reason to wait because they expect little in the way of a management response.” […]
Some financial analysts said they were caught off guard by the downgrade, which came less than three months after another significant Moody’s downgrade of Chicago’s debt. Those analysts said they weren’t sure if the Moody’s action would increase city borrowing costs, given that other agencies have given the city higher ratings and the city’s already paying relatively high interest rates.
“The downgrade is a surprise to me, because I see no reason to give up on management yet,” Fabian said. “There is still time for them to formulate a plan and, over time, fix their budget issues.”
Clint Krislov, the attorney representing retired city workers in one of two lawsuits against the Chicago pension reform law, said he will ask a judge on Wednesday for a summary judgment invalidating the law. […]
The latest Moody’s downgrade gives banks that provide credit support and interest-rate swaps the right to demand a total of $2.2 billion in accelerated principal, interest and termination payments from Chicago, according to Moody’s.
Chicago debt has been trading at huge spreads over the municipal market’s triple-A benchmark yield scale. Chicago’s descent into junk status could obligate managers of some high-quality muni funds to dump the city’s bonds, warned Dan Heckman, senior fixed-income strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“We would continue to urge investors to have an extreme level of caution here,” Heckman said.
If Krislov is successful, we could see a stampede.
Budget Director Alex Holt said Tuesday the city plans to forge ahead with that plan, even though “swaps that overlay variable rate debt” could be called in immediately as a result of the double-downgrade.
“If they do, there will be termination payments we’ll need to make. But we were going to take out $200 million in variable rate debt anyway over the course of this year,” Holt said.
As for the city’s ability to borrow to fund capital projects, Holt said, “We think the capital markets will continue to be available to us. We think investors still have confidence in the city.”
Yeah, but some institutional investors won’t be able to buy those bonds now.