Dold’s rationale
Friday, Sep 11, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* GOP Congressman Bob Dold won during two off-year elections and lost during a presidential election. He recently told the Daily Herald why he will win in the upcoming presidential year…
For one, Illinoisan Barack Obama won’t be at the top of the ticket next year to draw local Democratic voters, and U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk is set to be in a spirited re-election race that might draw Republicans to the polls, Dold said.
Kirk formerly held Dold’s congressional seat and is “obviously extremely popular in the 10th District,” Dold said.
Plus, he says, the state GOP is stronger now after Gov. Bruce Rauner’s victory last year.
“The Illinois Republican Party in 2012 was basically nonexistent,” Dold told the Daily Herald editorial board during a visit Thursday.
Thoughts?
- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:45 am:
Wishful thinking?
- Chicago Cynic - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:45 am:
If Brad Schneider is the nominee, this seat will continue to flip flop for a while.
- modest proposal - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:47 am:
All his assumptions are correct. Kirk is probably more exciting there then other places in Illinois.
But, the democratic presidential election cycle also provides his opponent a boost
- DecaturGuy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:48 am:
the summer of trouble aside, next year Kirk is going to drive a lot of indies and moderates out to vote for him. it’s going to be shift the electorate a bit for down ballot races.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:49 am:
I’d add Munger having a race helps up there, along with it being Rauner’s home…
(except when his denied Winnetka-lining daughter needed a Chicago address to get clouted in to Payton Prep, but I digress…)
… so Dold will have lots of local reasons to think he can weather the Presidential year.
- illini - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:51 am:
Anonymous has it correct. Or is it delusional?
- walker - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:52 am:
Kirk voters will come out big in the 10th Congressional. That part is true.
It was a big factor in the 2010 elections for other candidates in that geography. (Though the boundaries have since shifted some.)
- Team America - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:53 am:
With Nancy Rotering attacking Schneider from the left, even presuming he survives, he won’t come out stronger for it. That, plus his lackluster record as a Congressman to run on, pretty much ends it for Schneider. Rotering is a longshot to win the primary even with Mikva’s recent endorsement, and she is soundly reviled outside of Highland Park. Advantage, Dold, either way you slice it.
- Ghost - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:53 am:
My antcdotal sense is that the state gop is weaker from Rauner. Lot of gop state employees who voted for rauner are not going to support gop candidates following the afscme issues.
Rauner had something crazt like 30-40% of state workers voted for him. I see those votes…. And the retirees, as at risk in the next election.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:55 am:
===Lot of gop state employees who voted for rauner===
lol
Y’all really do think you’re everywhere, don’t you?
You gotta get outta Springfield, man.
- Mama - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 11:56 am:
Hmm hello… Hillary Clinton is a Dem who is running for president, and she was born and raised in IL. I think IL Dems will support her.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:04 pm:
He’s definitely right about the Rauner money network.
Pair that with the unlimited fundraising abilities of independent expenditure groups and that, by far, is the biggest change in Illinois politics in some time.
Griff can swamp the field with a stroke of a pen.
- hockey fan - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:04 pm:
Dold may be right but if Rotering is his opponent, and I think she will be, she will beat him with the Democratic 16 lift. She’s a far stronger candidate than Schneider.
- Carolina - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:07 pm:
Mama-
Hillary is from Illinois just like Mitt Romney is from Michigan-outside of the usual Democratic presidential election boost I don’t see her nomination turning out an abnormally large amount of Democratic voters
- Gooner - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:08 pm:
Dold is thinking of Kirk in the past.
Kirk has moved to the right and it is going to hurt him, along with some of the strange statements he’s been making.
Kirk on the ticket is not likely to hurt, but I can’t imagine it will be a measurable benefit.
If this was six years ago, then yeah, Kirk would be a help.
- A guy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:08 pm:
Dold isn’t off the hook on this. It’s way early, but with all the Trump hoopla and the truly serious problems Hillary is having, we’re likely in for a different kind of cycle this time around. Naturally, how the economy is next year and any other factors could play into the whole mix.
There’s an odd comfort in saying it’s a Presidential year and the Dems will come out in huge numbers, so the GOP is doomed. It’s a silly assumption at this point.
A lot has happened in Illinois and nationally since the last roll around. Obama isn’t on the ticket, and that will have an effect on the African American vote that very enthusiastically supported him more than other Democrats in the past.
Dold will definitely benefit in that district with Mark Kirk toward the top. In a district that’s always close, that’s a biggie.
Heck, the Cubs are vying for the playoffs. How can anyone deny that there are oddities at play!
- milksteak - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:09 pm:
Kirk is definitely exciting in the 10th and will pull out moderates who might not otherwise vote GOP. Go Dold!
- Precinct Captain - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:12 pm:
Dold is in a better position than he was in 2012, especially if Schneider is the Democratic nominee. The state GOP is in a much better position, and Rauner going to the wall for Kirk, especially in Kirk’s home turf, will help Dold. The whole Schneider dodging on tax returns is bizarre, and will only help Dold if Rotering can’t pull off the primary win.
- King Arthur - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:12 pm:
Kirk will bring moderates and independents to the polls who oppose the Democratic partisanship we have been consistently witnessing. He’s got an independent record and voters will see this clearer as the campaign moves forward and Duckworth keeps voting along party lines.
- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:15 pm:
That’s assuming even that Hillary will be the nominee. If Biden gets in, which appears more likely by the day, that may not happen.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:16 pm:
Kirk wasn’t exactly an electoral juggernaut in that district. Seriously, he’s going to turn out voters who aren’t voting for president, anyway?
- Father Ted - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:18 pm:
I’ve traditionally voted Republican and even I preferred the state’s Republican party when it was nonexistent versus the current Raunerized edition.
Dold is a good guy even if he isn’t the most exciting candidate in the world. I hope he keeps the seat.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:20 pm:
“===Kirk wasn’t exactly an electoral juggernaut in that district. Seriously, he’s going to turn out voters who aren’t voting for president, anyway?===”
Uh, Kirk won this “swing” district 5 times in a row.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:26 pm:
Between Kirk/Munger/Rauner in that neck of the woods, Dold should hold.
It won’t be by a comfortable margin, but Dold will hold.
- Colin O'Scopey - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:29 pm:
=Hillary is from Illinois just like Mitt Romney is from Michigan-outside of the usual Democratic presidential election boost I don’t see her nomination turning out an abnormally large amount of Democratic voters=
I think a lot of moderate women will vote for Hillary. That doesn’t mean they will vote against Dold, but if Hillary is the nominee, the women vote could sway down ticket races.
- Arsenal - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:32 pm:
==If Biden gets in, which appears more likely by the day==
What makes you say that, the way he keeps saying he doesn’t know if he’s emotionally ready to run and bursts into tears every time he’s asked?
- Nick Name - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:33 pm:
“Plus, he says, the state GOP is stronger now after Gov. Bruce Rauner’s victory last year.”
The longer it takes for the state GOP to distance itself from Rauner, the more long-lasting will be its self-destruction. Rauner does zilch for the state GOP in the long run.
- A guy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:41 pm:
===Rauner does zilch for the state GOP in the long run.===
Okay. If you say so. eek.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:43 pm:
Louis, understood. But five point margins against Dan Seals aren’t juggernauts, hence, the choice of word.
But if your belief is that Kirk’s presence on the ballot will turn out people who otherwise would have skipped a presidential election, have fun with it, but I wouldn’t bank on it.
The Obama factor is myth, too. Statewide turnout, according to ISBE:
2012: 70 percent
2008: 71 percent
2004: 71 percent
2000: 69 percent
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 12:45 pm:
===Okay. If you say so. eek.===
Well, Rauner bought two Caucuses and the state party, lock stock and barrel…
What else?
- train111 - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:02 pm:
Keep in mind Kirk won it prior to 2010 when the district was in its pre-democratic gerrymander configuration and Palatine was there to pull Kirk through. Palatine isn’t there now. This one will probably be real close.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:03 pm:
Dold is flat-out correct.
Period.
This is his race. This is his district. He knows how to win and to lose in it. He knows more than we do.
- pool boy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:22 pm:
I thought Hillary was a banned word on this blog.LOL
- slow down - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:25 pm:
If Rotering wins the primary and is on the ballot with Hillary Clinton and Tammy Duckworth, would it be reasonable to expect a higher than usual turnout of women?
- Anon - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:31 pm:
===Between Kirk/Munger/Rauner in that neck of the woods, Dold should hold.===
OW, in general I agree with you — but I think it also has to do with what kind of campaign Dold runs and the kind of campaign that his opponent runs.
Even with the presidential election there are still going to be sporadic voters that lean democratic or lean Republican that may be difficult to motivate to the polls and can be impacted either way depending on who their party’s nominee is and the level of political information they consume.
- Anon - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:34 pm:
===He knows how to win and to lose in it. He knows more than we do.===
Nice pep talk, VanillaMan.
- DuPage Don - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:39 pm:
===Mama @ 11:56===
Um, I wouldn’t be so sure Hillary will be at the top of any ticket in 2016.
- slow down - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:46 pm:
Hillary is going to be the nominee. Anyone who saw Biden on Colbert last night should understand that he’s not going to run.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:53 pm:
- Anon -,
Munger and Dold and Kirk and Rauner have so many ex-Kirk Crew around, they will be able to gin up enough interest and turnout for all of them, with the resources to actually do what needs to be done.
Munger and Dold will build upon each other’s momentum.
No Munger? While different ball game
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:54 pm:
“Whole”
- Anon - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:58 pm:
===with the resources to actually do what needs to be done.===
Gas station gift cards for everybody!
- Springfieldish - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:58 pm:
This is just pep talk for the troops, with the usual GOP prognosticators - Team America and Atsaves - glomming on. Way way too early. Petition gathering in northern and western corners of the 10th for a Dem using a list that includes hard R’s, there seems to be a lot of buyer’s remorse out there. R’s didn’t vote for a stalemate. Rauner promised quick change, but many of his supporters are now seeing missteps instead. Duckworth is close in name ID even in very Red townships - Grant, Warren, Vernon - and her story resonates much louder than Kirk’s. She’s a real hero, not an “I-was-scared-flying-18,000-feet-over-the-edge-of-the-combat-zone” hero, minimizing Kirk. Moderate R’s are scared of Trump, disappointed with Rauner and confused about Kirk’s recent oddities. For a member of the majority caucus, Dold has produced less than Schneider did as a member of a shunned minority. This district feels like the toss-up it has been since 2012.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 2:01 pm:
===Gas station gift cards for everybody!===
Nah, Nordstrom’s…
- MurMan - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 2:22 pm:
Word has it right. Presidential turnout is 70%. Dold won in midterms because historically turnout is way lower in midterms, closer to 40%. I’ve run several campaigns, and I can tell you that majority of those presidential voters that don’t show up in the midterms are Democrats.
IL 10 is a Democratic majority district during a presidential.
- DuPage Don - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 2:25 pm:
The 10th district is always a toss-up going back to the incredibly close races between Abner Mikva and Sam Young…..look it up
- Amalia - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 2:39 pm:
well, if it’s Biden, he’s correct. (but two words for Biden, Anita Hill.) if it is Hillary, look out, here comes Rotering!
- OldIllini - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 2:55 pm:
The biggest unknown is Donald Trump
- steve schnorf - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 3:26 pm:
It will be interesting to see how Hillary Clinton’s popularity with voters compares to Barack Obama’s here in Illinois. Right now I would venture well but not quite as high. But, we’ll see.
- sal-says - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 3:40 pm:
== “The Illinois Republican Party in 2012 was basically nonexistent,” Dold… ==
“The Illinois Republican Party in 2015 is basically nonexistent, since The Governot Raunner was elected.”
There. Fixed it for ya, Mr. Dold.
- A guy - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 3:47 pm:
=== Springfieldish - Friday, Sep 11, 15 @ 1:58 pm:===
Only a flake makes fun of anyone’s service in uniform. Leave that sentence out, and maybe you could be taken seriously.