As you probably know already, Illinois Comptroller Leslie Munger said that the state government’s backlog of unpaid bills will hit $8.5 billion by the end of December, up from about $6 billion right now.
That’s a headline-grabbing number, since the end of December is not exactly the greatest time for people and companies that are owed money by the state. The state’s bill backlog was about $8 billion this past January, right after most of the 2011 state income tax hike expired. But the backlog fell to $3.5 billion by the end of July, and just $2.3 billion of those bills was more than 30 days overdue.
But let’s take a look at another estimate Comptroller Munger released last week.
The comptroller totaled up state spending from last fiscal year that isn’t currently being mandated by federal and state court decrees (Medicaid bills, state employee and judicial salaries, etc.), continuing appropriations (bond and pension payments, legislative salaries), a signed appropriations bills (K-12 education) and other things, and came up with $4.3 billion.
The $4.3 billion is the total amount that was paid out last year but is not currently being sent to colleges and universities, state employee health care providers, non-Medicaid social service providers, MAP Grant college student aid recipients, lottery winners over $25,000, plus various “transfers out,” including to local governments for things like motor fuel tax distributions.
Eventually, that money will have to be paid in full or in part, or significant portions of the state are gonna be in a big world of hurt.
So, the Senate Democrats stepped in last week and passed an appropriations bill that covers most of those state payments that aren’t already going out the door. The problem, of course, is that just because they passed a spending bill doesn’t mean there is any money to pay those bills.
And there are indeed no available state revenues to pay for most of those appropriations (with the exception of money that comes out of “special funds” like the $582 million appropriated from the Motor Fuel Tax Fund).
It’s kinda like thinking you have money in your bank account because you still have plenty of checks.
All the Senate’s legislation would do is hasten the point at which the state physically runs out of money to pay any of its obligations. There’s already billions of dollars less coming into state coffers because of the January tax hike expiration, but the Senate bill would spend billions of dollars more.
The governor’s overall record on veto overrides so far this year has been 60 wins and one loss, with that “loss” being a veto of Medicaid funding for heroin treatment that was overridden by both chambers and is therefore now law. But the governor agreed to Republican legislators’ demands to not oppose the override, and there are those who believe he only vetoed it so he could look like he was opposed to spending money on heroin addiction treatment, so it wasn’t really a loss.
It’s therefore more than reasonable to assume that even if the House Democrats do manage to get all 71 of their members to town later this month and pass the Senate’s spending legislation (probably a big “if” since one of those Democrats has tickets to see Pope Francis that very day), the governor will likely veto the thing and then the House Democrats will struggle in vain yet again to override. So, last week’s floor action could very well turn out to be futile. And even if they do override him, the governor doesn’t have to spend the money without a court order.
In an open letter to members last week, the governor’s chief legislative liaison urged the Senate Democrats to “come back to the negotiating table to pursue compromise, reform and a balanced budget,” to which the Dems responded, “What is this ‘negotiating table’ that they speak of?”
According to the Senate Democrats, the four legislative leaders and the governor have not met with each other since late May. And the governor refuses to even discuss the budget until the Democrats agree to address his “Turnaround Agenda.”
I just don’t know what to say anymore.
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:14 am:
If nothing else, Rich, you’ve conclusively killed the fiction of the “veto-proof majorities.”
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:17 am:
I think we are going to learn the hard way what partisan stubborness and unwillingness to compromise is going to get us. No longer will we have to wonder “what if”. We’re going there…actually we’re there, just not all the way. At some point “Walking Dead” will be a little too close to home to watch. We’ll know what real dysfunction looks like.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:18 am:
Rich makes clear what the actors in the farce want as “facts”.
Just as math denies the ideal of veto-proof majorities, math again denies Rauner his wishes.
I can’t conprehend how such a talented a bunch can’t explain 60 and 30 or 71 and 36 to a man who allegedly made millions upon millions understanding, you guessed it, math.
Great work, Rich, as always.
- Sir Reel - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:18 am:
Great assessment.
With billions in unpaid bills and billions of spending at last fiscal year levels, each day is critical. Yet our leaders don’t even meet face to face. They just throw barbs through the media.
It’s so easy to wage war from afar. Just press a button.
- Omega Man - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:27 am:
Once Rauner drops the “Destroy All Unions” demand, compromise, painful as it will be, will be possible. The unions will do all they can to help, but they can’t do it all!
- Austin Blvd - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:28 am:
“Hey Pope, watch this,” as Rauner pulls out his veto pen.
- Just saying... - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:32 am:
A total lack of leadership skills on behalf of the governor and his peeps. And a total lack of courage on behalf of the GOP General Assembly members who appear to be addicted to and hiding behind the almighty Rauner $$$$.
In the meantime, the state continues to suffer and taxpayers will ultimately pay the price for the growing debt.
Can’t wait to hear the GOP explanation when they are forced to do their job and vote in favor of a tax increase.
What a sad joke this has become!
- fed up - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:40 am:
What is the and over/under on when the state “physically” runs out of money?
- Austin Blvd - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:44 am:
Anyone who thought the GOP members of the House and Senate would have more clout with a GOP governor has got to be rethinking that analysis.
They have even less influence than under a Dem governor.
- Mama - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 10:53 am:
It appears Rauner intends to run the state so far in debt it can not recover in order to get what he wants (low pay, no benefits & no rights for workers). Rauner has never been about saving IL from financial ruins.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 11:07 am:
Word, only for people with reading comprehension skills. Trolls and Madiganphopes will continue to spew the supermajority crud.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 11:11 am:
The Governor’s demand to destroy unions has ended up destroying Illinois, which to him is acceptable if it means destroying the unions.
Destroying unions is all this governor is interested in doing. If he was interested in governing, he would be doing it.
When we recall what he said regarding his, (what we now know is a psychotic obsession), against unions during last year’s campaign, we hear him making flat-out lies. He is like a golden retriever smelling bacon and promising us that he didn’t like bacon, all the while drooling over how much he will devour if you let him in the kitchen.
His obsession over unions and his demands to end them have exposed him to us as someone completely unfit for office.
He doesn’t care who gets hurt, how ruined Illinois becomes, as long as he can get the bacon.
- Captain Illini - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 11:23 am:
Vanilla…you may be on to something here with your analogy, since he’s sure made a lot of union folks squeal!
Seriously though, if there is strategy from the gov’s camp it has to be related to enough fiscal pain that he won’t be faulted for a tax increase.
- A Jack - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 11:27 am:
Not to bring up a painful subject, but Madigan only has 70 at the moment with the passing of Rep Golar. A replacement will likely take at least a few days to be found unless they anticipated this unfortunate event.
- walker - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 11:36 am:
==I just don’t know what to say anymore.==
Nothing to say, until the Governor makes the state budget a priority.
- Langhorne - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 12:10 pm:
I think RAUNER by now realizes he won’t get his agenda, and he won’t do an actual shutdown. His plan B is to let the state crash and burn, until the dems increase taxes and pass a budget. The silence of the repubs is shameful.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 12:14 pm:
My hope… that the state legislators, Dems and Repubs, will stand up to Rauner and “turnaround” on him. We, as a state, don’t need him, and he has definitely shown that he doesn’t need us- the citizens of Illinois. For those legislators planning to leave, either through not running again or going to a new job, make the votes you have left count NOW! Being Present will not cut it anymore.
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 12:23 pm:
I think Captain Illini is right. This was never about solving the state’s ongoing budget problems. It’s about taking minimum possible blame for the tax increase. Because getting re-elected is the goal-the only goal on both sides of the aisle. As for the Executive-the guv wants two terms.
Would term limits make them more, er, fearless? I doubt it. But in that scenario, the folks making the decisions would be more clueless, easy prey for the state’s massive army of lobbyists.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 12:24 pm:
Take Goldberg his lapdog with him already. If the governor has to write letters, make him do it himself instead of speaking through people.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 1:10 pm:
State runs out of money in march, give or take….
Interestingly there are some workers on fed programs where the feds pay more then the cost. So for every dollar we spend we get get over a ar back….BUT we have to have the dollar to spend since the feds reimburse. So we could lose income if those programs stop paying out.
All because the gov hates unions and fair wages for the middle class….
- Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 1:15 pm:
Great analysis.
Seems like one side, either side, could score some PR points by publicly inviting the other side to breakfast to discuss a compromise.
Until then, I’m disgusted with both sides.
- vole - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 1:36 pm:
Was there anything new to THINK about this 3 months ago?
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 1:53 pm:
Ghost-
The “superstars” can’t seem to figure that out (fed dollars). Sometime the hurt is gonna fall on necessary and significant programs, but I’m sure it will be someone else’s fault.
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 2:05 pm:
I don’t think we’re talking about a formal compromise here. I think we’re talking about a short-term emergency solution at the absolute zero hour-could be spring, I suppose. Fund sweeps, borrowing-a lot of borrowing, rosy assumptions here and there, and a modest, temporary income tax increase.
- Fed up with Rauner - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 2:21 pm:
I would seriously like to know how much longer do the citizens of IL have to suffer before a recall is set in motion?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 2:25 pm:
===I would seriously like to know how much longer do the citizens of IL have to suffer before a recall is set in motion?===
You know very little of the very specifics of what it actually “means” to get those “wheels” in motion. If you did, you wouldn’t ask that if you actually did know. Ugh.
- walker - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 2:28 pm:
@Cassandra: Term limits might automatically create more “lame ducks” if that’s any consolation. It would not do much else, IMO, except reduce the power of the voters.
- MurMan - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 2:56 pm:
I would like a gubernatorial recall and a date with Scarlett Johansson. The latter woukd get better odds in Vegas
- Fed up with Rauner - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 3:52 pm:
No I don’t know how a recall works, hence the legitimate question. No need to be insulting, nasty and sarcastic. Excuse me for asking!
- Dr Kilovolt - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 3:54 pm:
That temporary tax hike just HAD to be rolled back.
Thanks, Rauner.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 4:02 pm:
===No I don’t know how a recall works===
This isn’t Google. Go away.
- Fed up with Rauner - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 5:00 pm:
“Go away.” Wow. That is harsh Rich. “In other words, do your best to be civilized and smart.” I guess as the site owner you don’t have to heed your own advice? I enjoy reading your blog but this your response is truly disappointing, I did not mean to troll or cause issues. A simple response of “It’s rather complicated” and a link to a reference would have been helpful. Instead I get rude, sarcastic, dismissive replies. This is the last place I expected to be treated like this for asking a question. I’m sorry I was wrong on that point and I will refrain from posting in the future. You guys can have your sandbox to yourselves.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 6:42 pm:
- Fed up with Rauner -
If you google “Illinois Governor recall” you can find more than you ever wanted to know in the top 3 links … plus a number of us have elaborated the general outlines here multiple times.
- Fed up with Rauner - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 6:45 pm:
-RNUG-
I do not read this forum on a daily basis so I must have missed any recall discussions. Thank you.
- Ma-at's Feather - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 7:47 pm:
-Fed up with Rauner-
Don’t feel bad. I come on here a lot to catch up on the latest news and see what folks are saying, and I’ve seen them address this business before. I’ve even noticed that Rich has threatened to ban anyone who mentions the “R” word…it’s a sore point with them. And OW has some really good points, however his second language does tend to be “sarcasm,” so you’re not alone. Anyway, I believe we gain more from sharing what we learn, and I lean toward optimism. This logjam has got to clear up soon!
- Property of IDOC - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 9:23 pm:
…? I thought I sent a post?
- Fed up with Rauner - Tuesday, Sep 22, 15 @ 11:40 pm:
-Ma-at’s Feather-
Thank you for your kind words.