The waiting game
Monday, Oct 19, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m not sure that Rep. Sandack understood what Rep. Zed was saying here…
To my eyes, anyway, Zed was saying, “Hey, Ron, you may think we’re dying to vote for a tax hike and to bail out the City, but we’re not really crazy about doing it, so maybe we should try something else besides this Turnaround Agenda.”
Rep. Sandack, however, is apparently of the belief that the City’s problems will force Statehouse action to his guy’s favor. He could be right. It’s gonna get pretty darned awful.
* Rep. Sandack is not alone. Tribune editorial board…
Rauner has tried to compromise. He put the option of new taxes on the table to help balance the budget. He is asking for common-sense reforms, including giving voters a greater voice in their government — the chance to vote for term limits and redistricting reform — and labor-rule changes that would attract employers.
But Madigan and Cullerton refuse to meet him halfway. On anything.
In September we urged Rauner to set a deadline for a budget deal. Enough with the nonsense. Declare that after a certain date, the offer of higher taxes vanishes: “If there’s no deal by a date certain — how about Nov. 1? — then set the rest of your agenda aside for another day, another year. But make it clear to Democrats that their failure to reach a deal with you by that date locks in how much money Illinois will have to spend.”
Nov. 1 is two weeks from Sunday.
Taking taxes off the table would disappoint those who think state government is well-run and can’t economize.
I would love to see the governor finally introduce a balanced budget without gigantic pension gimmicks and tax hikes. Really, I would. Do it, man.
* And speaking of Chicago…
Determined to bite the bullet and get it over with, aldermen on Monday questioned why Mayor Rahm Emanuel is not proposing an even bigger property tax increase instead of assuming that Gov. Bruce Rauner will sign a bill that gives Chicago more time to shore up police and fire pensions.
“What I’m detecting here is an appetite to get this over with one way or the other and not keep coming back and doing it again and again,” said Ald. Edward Burke (14th), chairman of the City Council’s Finance Committee.
In proposing a four-year, $543 million increase for police and fire pensions, Emanuel is making a rosy and risky assumption that, if he’s wrong, would make the financial hit absorbed by Chicago taxpayers significantly worse.
The mayor is assuming that Gov. Bruce Rauner will sign legislation — approved by the Illinois House and Senate, but not yet on the governor’s desk — giving Chicago 15 more years to ramp up to 90 percent funding level for the police and fire pension funds. […]
“Would it not be more intelligent to levy at that amount — $220 million or whatever it is — and then abate … when the governor signs it?” Burke said.
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 1:56 pm:
I said it earlier: high on their own supply. The Raunerites think Democrats are just delirious with a desire for a tax hike, and that’s a big part of the reason we’re in this mess.
- Juvenal - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 1:59 pm:
=== Rep. Sandack, however, is of the belief that the City’s problems will for Statehouse action to his guy’s favor. He could be right. It’s gonna get pretty darned awful. ===
Pretty darned awful for whom though, Rich?
A lot of Rauner’s business friends, for sure.
And anyone who owns multi-million dollar properties in the city, including Mr. Rauner.
Sure, it will get rough for a lot of regular homeowners too.
But my bet is that the Mayor and the City Council will just blame Rauner for holding the City hostage along with the rest of the state budget.
Meanwhile, how is IDOT gonna pay for salt?
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:03 pm:
I hope Sandack’s challenger(s) take note of this post.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:03 pm:
The Owl reads what he thinks will make the talking points work.
The Owl could be absolutely right. It’s the cost, also to the GOP GA that will be interesting enough.
Rauner is counting on Chicago Dems in the GA to carry the heavy freight, allowing “cover” to GOP members not in the mood (ever) to bail out “She-cah-Go”.
Can Rahm deliver, in both chambers, with Madigan and Cullerton, and… that Rauner himself will sign?
The Owl may be right, the damage, well…
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:06 pm:
===I hope Sandack’s challenger(s) take note of this post.===
The Owl will have none. Uihlein keeps The Owl, well, The Owl. With Uihlein out of the way, Rep. Sandack has no fears now, that’s the payoff… with the Hooting.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:07 pm:
Sandack supports higher taxes in exchange for eliminating basic worker protections.
The mailer’s write themselves. I love politicians with Twitter accounts… that can dig their own political graves….
- Juvenal - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:09 pm:
=== high on their own supply. ===
LOL
In response to Rep. Sandack, I would say that the Democratic and GOP spending plans look pretty darn similar, and if that is the only hold-up I bet they can find an agreement pretty quickly
- Abe the Babe - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:15 pm:
GOP votes will be needed (or more accurately demanded) for the tax increase and they seek “cover” for that tax vote using rarely specified “business reforms”.
Trouble is, they hitched their wagon (or more accurately their wagons were hijacked in the middle of the night) to the wrong guy. And now that the social safety net is fraying, the revenue from a full fiscal year’s tax increase is dwindling, and real people have been and are continuing to be harmed… my only comment for Sandack is: I really hope its worth it.
- Gooner - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:16 pm:
Wonder how “held Chicago students hostage until he could bust unions” is going to play for Ron if he ever decides to run statewide?
- Austin Blvd - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:22 pm:
Gooner@2:16
Surely Sandack recognizes that, as the vocal leader of the House GOP, that he has risen to his level of incompetence…in terms of public service, that is.
- GA Watcher - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:24 pm:
Alderman Burke is correct. The Governor is counting on Chicago being beholdin’ in order to leverage his reforms whatever those might be. Chicago should take that arrow out of his quiver.
- Arizona Bob - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:25 pm:
I REALLY wish that Rauner had proposed a balanced budget with current revenues, including no new spending, new programs and bare bones capital work (only that needed for safety related work or that for which matching funding would be lost if not spent in the current fiscal year). State aid for K-12 public schools, where in Illinois they spend 17.8% above the national average per pupil, should’ve seen the sharp edge of an axe. Discretionary spending ? GONE for 2016. All new grants that make Dem (and too many RINOs) buddies so rich? GONE. He should’ve hit the Dem patronage wagon as hard as he could. Eligibility for freebies and subsidies? Raise ‘em until you can afford ‘em. Raises for ANY public employees (including his staff)or contractors that aren’t contractually required? History. If Cullerton and Madigan wanted their pork back, they’d have to negotiate for it and their tax increase.
When the social agencies and professional whiners like “Voices for Illinois Children” (more appropriately named “voices for public unions and bureaucracies” because they NEVER take the children’s sides when their interests conflict with them), he’d just have to tell them “Tell us where you’d like us to cut to make the money available. We don’t have any.”
At least then Rauner would have some moral authority here….
- tnt - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:27 pm:
OW
Maybe the Raunerites are holding out for a grand GOP/Chicago-Dem coalition that results in a 60/30 structured rollcall come January. I just don’t think Rahm has the juice to pull that off in Springfield on his own. It ain’t like the old days when the mayor could snap his fingers and deliver votes in the GA. As I mentioned in a previous post, I think Karen Lewis can deliver more Chicago votes in the GA than Rahm. Think Bruce can get her on board?
- Wordslinger - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:27 pm:
The Tribbies’ rant is more hysterical and hilarious than usual.
Pass the Turnaround Agenda by Nov. 1 or a tax increase is “off the table?”
Wow, big-hitter negotiators.
I’m guessing that Big Brain Bruce and Katrina didn’t do so well in math or logic in school.
Under current mandated spending, the state will run out of money sometime in spring. This, while stiffing vendors and abandoning core responsibilities.
Gov. Rauner desperately needs a budget deal and more revenue to avoid shutting down the state completely, ruining the GOPs chances in a presidential election year to gain any ground in the GA and becoming, personally, a national joke.
If the state shuts down, you think the late-night crew is going to make Madigan the punch line?
- Unspun - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:28 pm:
If Sandack keeps parroting the Rauner talking points, he may be at risk of his colleagues and constituents beginning to actually think he believes his own words.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:30 pm:
===I REALLY wish that Rauner had proposed a balanced budget with current revenues,…===
===At least then Rauner would have some moral authority here….===
If Rauner would’ve done that, the leverage Rauner would’ve had in budgetary negotiations, including his Turnaround Agenda.
Rauner never counted on being “called” that revenue for Rauner… is required. Major mistake in leveraging.
You are On It - Arizona Bob -
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:33 pm:
=== I mentioned in a previous post, I think Karen Lewis can deliver more Chicago votes in the GA than Rahm. Think Bruce can get her on board?===
At the cost of Rahm? Nope.
Plus, Lewis and Rauner are at loggerheads from jumpstreet. Pick an area that Lewis feels strongly about, odds are, Rauner isn’t of the same belief. As a union leader who fought and “beat” Rahm, why cut that deal with Rauner?
Too many moving parts(?)
It’s Rahm, I think, or… (?)
- Politix - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:35 pm:
Today’s editorial reeks of desperation after another week of no movement on the budget …. Bet ol’ Lance made a phone call. I was pleasantly surprised by the reader comments, though. People are finally waking up to the Trib’s shameless partisanship.
I don’t believe Rahm will cave to Rauner’s union demands, as much as he probably wishes he could.
- The Captain - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:39 pm:
Here is something that has been true for a while that more and more people are starting to realize: there aren’t 60 votes in the House for a tax increase. There also aren’t 60 votes in the House for a balanced budget that has the kind of deep cuts needed if there is no new revenue. A cease fire to this political war won’t be enough to change either of those two statements, there would have to be a lot of compromise to get a budget deal.
That Rauner refuses to negotiate a budget until he gets what he wants seems like the most difficult obstacle to overcome, largely because it’s been the most visible obstacle for so long but the truth is it’s actually the easy part. Finding an actual budget agreement will be the far more difficult challenge.
- ZC - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:41 pm:
The reason the Democrats aren’t obligated to meet Rauner “half way,” for the umpty-umpth time, is that they actually campaigned on (roughly) the positions they’re holding now, whereas Rauner campaigned in the general on something completely different, and then informed the general public in November that they’d neglected to read the fine print.
For all their ills, the Democrats are at least representing what a majority of Illinoisans say they want. On the union and public sector stuff Rauner is way out from the mainstream Illinois voter.
It’s also pretty rich that the Tribune goes on and on piously about the people’s will, and always neglects the vote tally last November to add a progressive tax to the Illinois Constitution. When they say they favor tax increases, they want them flat or regressive, regardless of what the IL people clearly signaled.
- Cheryl44 - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:41 pm:
Rahm wants exactly the same thing Rauner wants: no unions.
- Southern Illinois Hoopdee - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:44 pm:
Sandack as usual missed the point. Dems, at least the progressive ones, want the tax system in IL to be far more progressive. Maybe at the end of that, some relief could be in store for the middle class and the working poor.
- Enviro - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:46 pm:
“Meanwhile, how is IDOT gonna pay for salt?”
FundMe.com
- Skeptic - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:57 pm:
Yes, but then there’s this: “then set the rest of your agenda aside for another day…” In other words, if you can’t make first down, punt and play for field position. Unless you’re the Colts. Come to think of it, that might be more apt…Bruce is the quarterback on that play, and Sandack is the center. And some big donor in the background saying, “Why did you snap the ball?”
Football imitates life.
- walker - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:58 pm:
AB: You’re right conceptually.
The problem might have been that even with Arduin’s and others’ help, doing all of what you suggested, they still couldn’t realistically and legally get to zero in 2016. That changed the dialogue to “who takes the blame” which is where we find ourselves.
- Allen D - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:02 pm:
- Enviro - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 2:46 pm:
“Meanwhile, how is IDOT gonna pay for salt?”
There is already salt for this winter and least in most of the down state due to over-purchasing the last couple years, more salt sheds had to be build last year in our district alone. Salt is not the issue for most areas. Water on the other hand is, water is needed to make the brine solution for pretreating roads and sheds are getting water turned off now… no water - no brine to pretreat. good luck with that road now.
- Elo Kiddies - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:05 pm:
When will it become clear that no one *wants* a tax hike? And that the governor needs a budget more than the legislature needs one?
- Me - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:27 pm:
“Rauner campaigned in the general on something completely different, and then informed the general public in November that they’d neglected to read the fine print.”
Boy that is the truth! However, lots of people still don’t know he flipped.
- walker - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:30 pm:
“Give us what we want, and we will help you to give us what we need.”
What a deal!
- Zed's Chopper - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:30 pm:
I thought the central fiscal assumption of the Raunerites is that revenues go up when taxes stay down (See Laffer-Arduin)
Why aren’t the Raunerites like Sandack arguing that a tax increase is no longer needed?
- Me - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:32 pm:
Illinois is going to need “FundMe.com” funds to keep the entire State functioning.
- Jack Stephens - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:40 pm:
@zc:
Illinoisans made it clear last November:
Cut Welfare for the Wealthy!
- Mama - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:47 pm:
“Rep. Sandack, however, is apparently of the belief that the City’s problems will force Statehouse action to his guy’s favor. He could be right. It’s gonna get pretty darned awful.”
Awful for the State or awful for Chicago?
- Streator Curmudgeon - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 3:54 pm:
==He is asking for common-sense reforms,==
To quote Rich Miller, “What planet are you from?”
- Norseman - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 4:13 pm:
=== I would love to see the governor finally introduce a balanced budget without gigantic pension gimmicks and tax hikes. Really, I would. Do it, man. ===
Rauner won’t because he wants a tax increase; he needs a tax increase. He also wants the political cover for taking this action.
- Skeptic - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 4:23 pm:
How about this for a twisted play…
Madigan: “Ok, fine. We’ll pass your turnaround, but first you introduce a balanced budget.”
Rauner: “Ok, as long as you promise to pass the agenda.”
Madigan: “Scout’s honor.”
Bill passes. Turnaround fails.
Rauner: “You promised!”
Madigan: “I didn’t get all the votes I anticipated.”
Which would leave Rauner having to veto his own (balanced) budget.
- Ghost - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 4:32 pm:
um the gov labor reforms are not to benefit employers…. they just whack exisiting state pr govt public employees
- sal-says - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 4:39 pm:
Just more of the same fox news concept of ‘fair & balanced’ spew. Have they NO shame??
- Enviro - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 5:03 pm:
Right to work zones would hurt many employees.
- Been There - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 5:07 pm:
===But Madigan and Cullerton refuse to meet him halfway. On anything.===
Halfway could be some agreement on terms and districts. Heck, Madigan and Cullerton will probably be long gone before these actually have ramifications. Rich has been telling the Dems to get out front on the districts for awhile. I would play my cards that way and take away Rauners argument.
- Arizona Bob - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 5:25 pm:
@ZC
“For all their ills, the Democrats are at least representing what a majority of Illinoisans say they want.”
I guess I missed the hue and cry from non-government workers of Illinois who actually pay taxes and small businesses to have their taxes raised by 67% and take food off their families tables so that the state and schools can keep spending 17.8% per student for K-12 education for average results, keep giving raises to public workers being paid far more than they, and keep paying public construction workers as much as 80% higher rates for their work than they make for their commercial jobs.
I’d think the voices would be so loud to take their money away for little I return that I’d hear it all the way to Arizona!LOL
- Wordslinger - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 5:43 pm:
AB, you didn’t miss that “hue and cry,” it just never happened.
I imagine that happens a lot with you.
What are you doing in AZ? I thought you were running “hi-tech” companies all over the country?
- Formerly Known As... - Monday, Oct 19, 15 @ 5:53 pm:
Chicago voters are about to get walloped with tax hikes.
That will also influence public opinion of another state tax increase.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 20, 15 @ 7:57 am:
==non-government workers of Illinois who actually pay taxes ==
Government workers also pay taxes. What a goofy comment. Of course I shouldn’t be surprised.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 20, 15 @ 7:58 am:
Also Bob move the heck on from your constant diatribes about spending more than average on public education. That’s the most pathetic argument I think I’ve ever seen. “Hey everyone. We need to be average!” Pathetic. Absolutely pathetic.