A lot of folks have taken to calling Bruce Rauner “Governor 1 Percent” because of his immense personal wealth. Gov. Rauner himself told the Chicago Sun-Times during the 2014 campaign that he was in the top one-tenth of one percent of income earners.
But, right now, anyway, he ought to be referred to as “Governor 1.4 percent.”
Why? Stay with me a bit and I’ll explain.
I sat down for an interview last week with Gov. Rauner. As with just about every reporter, Rauner blamed House Speaker Michael Madigan for stifling his beloved Turnaround Agenda. The governor said he was “frustrated” with Madigan for saying that his anti-union, pro-business reforms were “unrelated to the budget.”
“For example,” Rauner said, “if we can get business regulatory change so I can recruit manufacturers here and more transportation companies here, and more businesses here, we can generate billions of new revenue without raising tax rates. That’s directly tied to the budget.”
“Billions?” I asked.
“Billions,” he replied, while promising to send me a detailed analysis.
A few days later, his staff e-mailed me a memo that the governor had sent to lawmakers last fall. You can see it yourself at CapitolFax.com/turnaround.
But the memo didn’t really say much of anything about revenues, other than if the governor could get Illinois to “average” levels of unemployment and Gross State Product and if the governor could stop the migration of Illinoisans to other states, his agenda would produce a grand total of $510 million in additional revenues.
That ain’t “billions.”
And while $510 million is nothing to sneeze at, it won’t even cover the interest on the state’s mountain of overdue bills that have been accruing because the state has no budget and no way to pay them.
Of course, the state has not had a budget since June and has no way to pay those overdue bills because the governor refuses to negotiate a new budget until he gets his Turnaround Agenda passed, which according to his own memo wouldn’t produce enough revenue to pay the juice on money owed to the state’s vendors — not to mention the universities which haven’t received any state funding, creating major crises at several of them, and all the other social service groups which make up our safety net being stiffed, forcing the state’s most vulnerable to go without.
And while $510 million seems like a lot of money, the governor’s projected revenue growth from his Turnaround Agenda would only be a 1.4 percent increase over the last state fiscal year.
Hence, “Gov. 1.4 percent.”
And would it even be that much? Rauner has said he would agree to higher state taxes if legislators agree to his Turnaround Agenda. But as a Republican legislative friend pointed out to me last week, that tax hike will reduce growth, even with all of Rauner’s agenda items.
“The point is that they can’t argue that these anti-labor changes will magically produce $510 million of economic growth/revenue and then discount the negative effect of a tax increase on economic growth,” he wrote me.
True.
OK, but maybe the governor was just a little confused and meant to include state governmental savings in that “billions” remark.
So, let’s go back to the memo.
The governor claims the state would save $1.75 billion by making his demanded changes to union collective bargaining laws. $750 million of that would come from cutting healthcare costs for state employees. The rest isn’t explained.
He also claims that workers’ comp reforms would save the state $65 million a year. So, we’re looking at about $1.8 billion in savings. That’s far more substantial, but so far he’s getting absolutely nowhere because he’s taken such a hardline stance against unions.
To be fair, Rauner’s memo also claims that local governments would save billions more with his reforms, but some of his numbers just don’t add up, like overstating the savings on allowing governments to opt out of prevailing wage requirements on nonfederal projects.
I’m not all opposed to doing some pro-business reforms. I think an easy case can be made that workers’ comp costs are far too high, for example.
But I spent part of an afternoon last week listening to an otherwise tough-minded woman cry helplessly on the phone about the literal implosion of the state’s social service safety net.
And one of the greatest charitable groups in the history of this state, Lutheran Social Services of Illinois, is facing an existential crisis because the government owes it $6 million.
In my opinion, the payoff for continuing this governmental impasse is not worth the price being paid.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:03 am:
== That ain’t “billions.” ==
Over four years it is.
- ash - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:09 am:
Anonymous — are you paid by Rauner or an IPI plant? Everything the governor seems to do is painted in a rather rosy light by you…every singe time.
- cdog - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:10 am:
Good job Rich. Time to stare on FB.
Once again, the morphing personality of Annonymous…. Billions over four years? Not with Rauner in charge. The guy doesn’t understand numbers, obviously.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:10 am:
===Over four years it is.===
Two. Two “billions”
Still, that won’t cover the interest of the hole Rauner put Illinois in, for $510 million.
…
- Stalemate? - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:14 am:
If Madigan and Cullerton have veto-proof majorities, why haven’t the Democrats adopted a budget and overridden the Governor?
- Geek Marinr - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:15 am:
Looks like Gov. Scrooge did not get visited by the three ghosts this year. The state is hostage to a rounding error in his grand budget plan.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:17 am:
===If Madigan and Cullerton have veto-proof majorities, why haven’t the Democrats adopted a budget and overridden the Governor?===
Your form room ignorannce notwithstanding, have you heard of Jack Franks, Ken Dunkin, or Scott Drury?
If you haven’t, or are utterly clueless to what you think you “know” about how this sitting legislature sits and exists, maybe you should read more…
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:18 am:
I’d like to add two points to the ROI. (GREAT GREAT column by the way)
1) This artificially created crisis with Labor will absolutely destroy the state labor force. Who wants to work for the state right now. Even those who do are young and inexperienced and will dig us even deeper with their “superstar” mistakes. The senior workers are getting out as fast as they can. The mid level workers are looking for other work and the new workers are young inexperienced and are also looking for other jobs. As a workforce we are already 48th in Gov worker per capita as of Rauner taking office. I’m sure we’re dead last now. This will bring the state down super fast. Job loss, income loss, revenue loss, community loss.
2) What vender is going to trust the state? We are going to never be able to fix the procurement issues now being created. That will cause even more job loss, income loss, lower revenue, community loss.
We are bleeding out as a state dangerously fast right now. Add a forced strike, and it is forced. And we will literally fail. The state will literally collapse. The damage doesn’t come with the strike. It’s happening right now. A forced strike would cause the collapse not start the bleeding.
- Century Club - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:18 am:
The other issue here is that much of the ’savings’ pushed by Rauner is actually comes from the reduction of wages (or other income) for tens of thousands of Illinois residents. Does that help the economy?
- Cubs in '16 - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:19 am:
== That ain’t “billions.” ==
Over four years it is.
Really Anonymous? That’s all you took away from Rich’s column?
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:19 am:
That is why compromise is necessary. Why didn’t Madigan and Cullerton for the second year in a row propose a balanced budget?
- Mouthy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:23 am:
“But the memo didn’t really say much of anything about revenues, other than if the governor could get Illinois to “average” levels of unemployment and Gross State Product and if the governor could stop the migration of Illinoisans to other states, his agenda would produce a grand total of $510 million in additional revenues.”
A lot of “if’s” in that statement…
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:24 am:
Rauner probably thinks he can make up the difference by selling the Thompson Center. /s
- Henry Francis - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:25 am:
Rich - great analysis. Just curious if you have heard anything from the Rauner team disputing any of your conclusions (other than “anonymous”).
- cdog - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:25 am:
Class!! CLASSSSSSS!!!??!!
What are the interest payments and penalties on paying $9,000,000,000 in invoices after the due date?!??
14,500,000,000? (Close FY2017 per GOMB 1/6/2016)
Oh, btw you will have to calculate this without your calculators if you don’t have enough digits on your device to do this.
Hahahahaha!!
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:27 am:
OW - horsefeathers- Jack Franks, Ken Dunkin and Scott Drury (epecially Scott Drury) have never said they won’t vote for a Dem-only budget.
If I’m wrong about that, point me to the quote.
No, Franks refused to vote for the admittedly phony budget Madigan tried to ram through as a stopgap/default. Dunkin and Drury (along with pretty much every media outlet in the state) refused to vote for the mandatory arbitration bill override.
So no, you can’t twist those three votes into a blanket “Madigan can’t pass a budget.” And you also know he hasn’t tried. Unlike the phony budget he put up, he could negotiate a serious budget if he wanted with fellow Dems and invite any Republicans to cross lines and put THAT up for a vote. We both know the reason for this: politics - he thinks the voters are too stoooopid to do anything but punish Democrats for ending the budget crisis in such a way because of the tax hikes. Maybe he’s right. Maybe you think his long game is in the better interest of the state. But don’t keep trotting out Jack Franks’ rejection of that deficit/no-tax-increase-POS as evidence Madigan is powerless to pass a supermajority-veto-proof budget.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:30 am:
==If Madigan and Cullerton have veto-proof majorities, why haven’t the Democrats adopted a budget and overridden the Governor?==
==Why didn’t Madigan and Cullerton for the second year in a row propose a balanced budget?==
Some of you really need to get a new argument because those “arguments” are pretty weak. In fact, they aren’t even really arguments.
- downstate commissioner - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:30 am:
Good column, Rich, but how much longer will you still have access to Rauner? He certainly seems like one of those guys who WILL retaliate…
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:31 am:
I ran out of metaphors a few weeks ago and didn’t feel like recycling in 2016. You guys deserve better, especially in times like these.
So after reading and feeling overwhelmed by Rauner’s actions over the past week, I’ve done what worked for me in the past and backed away for a moment. The situation we are in is hard to take. I read a lot of emotion at Capitol Fax last week, all of it justified.
The Rauner Administration is still in the minority within our state, but it has been supported by millions of Illinoisans who seem to believe that they come out ahead if their state government files bankruptcy and goes out of business. Rauner, the venture capitalist who made millions buying up what others build, then stripping them into oblivion, and then cashing in, has become a governor with similar intentions on what we have built across Illinois.
We have millions of Illinoisans who are going along with it, and a lot of them are actually cheering on his destruction. They believe that our government hurts them more than it helps. They also believe that their needs from our state government hold a higher priority, so there will be more for them when others lose their state services.
Government is run like a buffet, but it isn’t a self help buffet, like the kind popular today. Instead of bellying up and handling it yourself, our state government buffet serves you. We have public servants waiting, refilling, cooking and cleaning up.
You get charged a percentage of your income to get in, but if you cannot pay, you are not sent away. You pay the same whether you enjoy the potato salad or the chocolate fondue. No one forces you to take what you don’t want. Everyone gets served, thanks to their citizenship.
What Rauner has sold millions of Illinoisans on, is the idea that the buffet should be replaced with a fast food restaurant. Millions of his supporters want hamburger and fries and don’t want to pay buffet prices for it. Rauner is promising these burger eaters, burger prices and his fans believe they have no need for any other kind of food. There is no free service. There is no buffet. There is nothing but burgers and fries.
Switching from a public buffet available to all, to a privately owned burger stand has become attractive to millions who are tired of paying for food they never eat. They are tired of paying for the citizens that dine free. They are tired of the wilted salad, or the yellow pudding paste. They have complained for years about how they sometimes get a waiter that isn’t nice to them, but still gets paid.
What does Rauner supporters lose by demanding we replace our state buffet with a private burger stand? They like hamburgers. They don’t want to pay for the roast beef. They claim they are getting a bad value. They are tired of seeing fatties pigging out, often without even paying.
They want only what they want and don’t want to pay more. After generations of not being exposed to poverty, they don’t believe anyone should get a free lunch. They aren’t valuing what makes them a citizen and have replaced it with market consumerism. They want cheap hamburger served to them by minimum wage workers. They don’t want to sit down in the pretty restaurant, but just want to drive around in their leased imported SUVs. That is how they view Illinois government. That is why they support Bruce Rauner’s drive to kill off our state government buffet.
What we need to do is get these burger eaters to rediscover the value of our buffet.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:32 am:
This just reinforces my belief that this “crusade” by the Governor has nothing to do with saving the state money.
- Former Hoosier - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:35 am:
Rich- Great article. How about sending it to the Trib for the “Perspective” column?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:36 am:
- lake county democrat -
I read your comment
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:37 am:
OW-
I think you are being too harsh. Indeed, most citizens likely don’t have the time or inclination to follow the details of state politics that much, or know who, say, Franks is. Stalemate’s question is not unreasonable for a casual observer. And most citizens are casual observers of their state’s politics, for good or ill.
I have another question, tho. I don’t see the guv proposing to raise income taxes this year, it would be an admission that Quinn was right in an election year, so when does the borrowing start? Because that’s how we get through this fiscal year. Borrowing and sweeping and pretending.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:37 am:
What if we had an additional 1.4 percent growth in revenues annually dating back to 2000, when the state began losing population because of a lack of job opportunities here? We would have barely any budget gap, if any at all. Folks here continue to focus only on the short term while Rauner has repeatedly said his focus is on the long term.
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:38 am:
“Why didn’t Madigan and Cullerton for the second year in a row propose a balanced budget?”
The Governor shall prepare and submit to the General Assembly, at a time prescribed by law, a State budget for the ensuing fiscal year. — Constitution of the State of Illinois. Art. VIII, Sec. 2(a)
That’s day-one stuff, people.
– MrJM
– MrJM
- Dance Band on the Titanic - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:38 am:
VM - Outstanding description of Rauner’s supporters perspective.
- Sam Weinberg - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:38 am:
I encourage everyone to look at what was actually sent to Rich.
Apparently, Kansas and Wisconsin are doing well in one area - the export of surplus magic beans.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:40 am:
==Folks here continue to focus only on the short term==
That’s because the immediate crisis is the short term. So, yeah, I’d like to focus on that.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:42 am:
- Anonymous - 9:36 was me.
- Cassandra -,
I’m not being too hard at all. A seemingly “thoughtful” question is based on the belief their own ignorance is knowledge. It’s tiring.
To your revenue question(s),
There will be not tax increase, so Rauner, whether Quinn was right or wrong, will deal with the fact he wanted to stick it to Madigan, and now can’t find his own state agencies.
Not a way to run a railroad.
(Knowing nod to - @MisterJayEm -)
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:42 am:
“What if we had an additional 1.4 percent growth in revenues annually dating back to 2000, when the state began losing population because of a lack of job opportunities here?”
What if Illinois had constant 1.4% growth for the last decade and a half despite the Great Recession of 2008?
Truly an Anonymous-quality comment.
– MrJM
- Joe M - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:49 am:
==And would it even be that much?==
A key question that makes the benefits of holding the budget hostage for the turnaround agenda all the more iffier.
- Way Way Down Here - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:50 am:
===After generations of not being exposed to poverty, they don’t believe anyone should get a free lunch. They aren’t valuing what makes them a citizen and have replaced it with market consumerism.===
VMan, you just scratched my itch. Thank you.
- 360 Degree TurnAround - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:52 am:
How does Rauner suggest he will be able to bring manufacturing jobs here when the dollar is so strong it is making American manufactured goods too expensive for overseas markets?
- Lincoln Lad - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:52 am:
Stalemate -
Welcome to the CapFax! Haven’t seen you post before, but encourage you to do so. Don’t be intimidated. There is a shortage of revenue in the State - and no one wants to own the necessary tax increase to deliver new revenues. It’s politics and elections, and doing what’s necessary and right is secondary to a struggle for power. Unfortunately so.
- Independent retired lawyer, journalist - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:53 am:
- Stalemate? - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:14 am:
If Madigan and Cullerton have veto-proof majorities, why haven’t the Democrats adopted a budget and overridden the Governor?
One of the ways you know Rauner is all about Walkerite politics is he’s made veto-proof a refrain. Obviously, the Democratic majority is not veto-proof. If it was, we’d have peace by now.
Great column, Rich. And don’t worry about losing Rauner as a source. He needs you.
- olddog - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:54 am:
One of your best, Rich. No matter how his partisans try to spin it, Gov. Rauner’s hardball tactics are destroying our human services infrastructure and higher ed in the pursuit of a narrow, unproven ideological agenda. As the faith-based not-for-profits cut services and go out of business, it transcends the partisan spin and becomes a moral issue.
- Sam Weinberg - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:54 am:
- Anonymous 9:37 -
How is it that Kansas is facing existential net-migration and budget issues?
I mean, Brownback is in a league of his own in thinking “long term” with tax cuts and shrinking government, right?
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:54 am:
-Cassandra- @ 9:47 am nails it.
Most citizens DON’T have the time or inclination to follow Illinois politics. They are busy with their own lives. (What does that say about all of us here?) Anyway, the only time the average guy on the street seems to care is when the State’s problems impact on their life. When that happens, whoever has the best sound bite usually wins.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 9:57 am:
What if we had an additional 1.4 percent growth in revenues annually dating back to 2000
The problem isn’t the additional 1.4 percent. The problem is the higher percentage of losses to get to that 1.4 percent.
It is one thing for Idaho to do this, and quite another for Illinois. We can agree that having fifty state governments isn’t a bad thing in many ways. It allows Idaho to run a completely different type of government than Illinois.
If Illinois went with Idaho-state government mentality, then it wouldn’t be the fifth largest state. It isn’t because Idaho is bad, but that what works there, wouldn’t have worked in Illinois. Illinois government is not a mistake anymore than Idaho or Kentucky governments are mistakes.
If Rauner wanted to be a governor, he should have picked his home ranch state of Montana. He could run Montana like how he now wishes he can run Illinois. The dude is filthy rich. He could have just as easily be governor in Helena, than Springfield. He chose poorly and WE are the losers. What he wants to do doesn’t fit Illinois. What he sees as not extreme policy positions, (which he refused to campaign on - if he really believes his policy positions weren’t extreme), are extreme in Illinois.
Idaho - Montana - maybe Texas - but not Illinois.
Illinoisans deserve the state they have. It is the Governor’s job to help them keep it, not destroy it because it doesn’t fit his extremist models. BTW - Rauner has NEVER been a governor. NEVER had any experience running a government. Even if he was elected in Montana, he would still find being governor a rough go because Bruce Rauner is as experienced a governor, as he is a NASA astronaut.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:01 am:
VM - I agree with most of your description except the “leased imported SUV” comment. Most of those siding with Rauner likely pay cash for their vehicles, pay them off and drive them another decade or pay them off early. It’s the ones that likely lease vehicles they can’t afford that consistently spend more money than they take in - likely free-spending legislators among those.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:01 am:
Vanilla Man - how has having experienced, career politicians worked for Illinois? Their failures are the reason Rauner won
- Aldyth - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:04 am:
This is going to be one of your great reference posts that we’ll be going back to for years to come.
It’s a shame that Rauner isn’t interested in insights.
- Juice - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:05 am:
Even the Governor’s modest amounts probably overstate how much the State can expect to save on both the savings and expenditure side.
For example, $65 million in workers comp savings is roughly half of the State’s annual workers comp liability. So first of all, that is a huge reduction in workers comp, far more than the GA is willing to go, and I suspect even further than the Governor has proposed up to this point. Second of all, a significant portion of those savings are going to be from medical savings. But if a worker has a bad back, whether the bad back was caused primarily by work or something else, the state is still going to cover those workers health care costs regardless. So some savings on the comp side will just pop up as an expense on the health care side.
Additionally, the governor still fails to detail how any of these policy changes will bring about an average unemployment rate or average economic growth. Much of the private sector will not be significantly impacted by his recommended changes, other than on comp, and at this point most of his focus has been on micromanaging the labor negotiations of units of local government. Things like that are not going to bring about increased growth rates, and reducing the take home pay of public or private sector workers is going to have an impact on tax receipts that will at least partially offset what would be received from greater economic growth.
- Sir Reel - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:09 am:
If one accepts the argument that destroying organized labor and hence the Democratic party, then the fiscal stuff doesn’t really matter. Just churn out some gobbledygook and continue to blame Madigan.
- Springfieldish - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:12 am:
I guess I need to ask if false-flag monikers are actually permitted here. After reviewing about 30 posts by “lake county democrat”, it is clear to me that the poster is NOT a Lake County Democrat.
Scott Drury, when asked directly, refused to commit to voting for a budget proposed by the Speaker himself or jointly with President Cullerton. Drury’s public comments and private actions make it more probably true than not true that he would not, ever, regardless of the wishes of his district, vote for a budget proposed by the Speaker or Cullerton unless faced with a complete shut-down of any bills he attempts to file.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:12 am:
To the Post,
“@RonSandack: I’m frustrated 2, but taking steps towards reforming IL more important than short term budget stalemate.”
That’s Rep. Ron Sandack, (R - Downers Grove)
For the mere return of $510 million, it’s worth hurting people, destroying social service organizations, allowing businesses to go without getting payment from the state, and now a state university may close it’s doors in March.
College Students? The $510 million is worth more then college educations, according to Ron Sandack.
Diana Rauner made it clear; Bruce has no social agenda. Diana Rauner said so. Either Diana Rauner is blissfully ignorant to her husband’s $510 million ROI, or part of the con job of destroying the social services of Illinois, for $510 million, and the decimation of Unions, I can’t forget that. I’d be embarrassed, but I’m not the one who told people Bruce cares.
Unions? Two in Five voted for Rauner. Pat Quinn sure learned a lesson. The $510 million lesson is now for Illinois, as Bruce Rauner continues his pursuit of ending Unions.
What’s utterly comical about Ron Sandack is the tweeting of how wonderful Gov. Kasich is, and ignoring the Kasich lesson learned about going after unions. I guess when your voting switch is bought and paid for, the irony inly describes a really neatly pressed shirt.
It’s time for “Governor 1.4%” (h/t Rich) to learn to count. Not to $510 million, not to 1.4, not even 17 alleged Union signed, sealed and delivered agreements.
Governor Rauner has gone, now, from 60/30, to 71/36, to back to 60/30.
I give the governor up to the State of the State;
Either show you have the votes or move on.
This ignorance of “Lots of Democrats support me” will be over then, for me.
Show your 60, show your 30, or show your Agenda the door.
It’s over. The game is up. Your numbers are feeble, and I’m being kind.
You don’t have the votes, your agencies have no budgets, your government is being funded by judges and decisions, some you even begged for, as Lance Trover tweeted the play-by-play.
To call this unprofessional would be giving Pat Quinn credit for appearing professional. Your administration lacks.
The only type of business that increases revenues by dismantling and hurting the corporate structure is the type of business a venture capitalist likes… so profits are maximized, and whatever is left can be sold off.
The game is up. The 1.4% is more about destroying Illinois, not saving Illinois.
“@RonSandack: I’m frustrated 2, but taking steps towards reforming IL more important than short term budget stalemate.”
It’s been the game all along.
Great work Rich, as always.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:15 am:
Mr.JM - there’s nothing in the Illinois Constitution that forbids the governor from including non-budgetary conditions to the negotiation. If there was, Madigan would have either had his daughter or some phony group represented by Michael Kasper bring a lawsuit to force him to do so (or at least had Lisa issue a “clarification” opinion).
OW - on this one I will take silence as consent (given how many times you’ve demanded similar from other commenters).
PS to Stalemate - what Lincoln Lad said (both about not being intimidated and as to the reason why we have a stalemate).
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:19 am:
Specifically to the post, no way can the Gov find that kind of employee health care savings. Heck, the state is still paying last fiscal year’s health insurance claims and payments. If anything, instead of saving that much, they need to add that much more to get current (like I suggested in the last post last week) the union should ask for in exchange for higher premiums and co-pays. If they ever got current, they could quit paying the 1% per month vig on the bills.
- Langhorne - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:21 am:
–$750 million of that would come from cutting healthcare costs for state employees.–
I thought he counted on $500 mil in employee health care costs in his original budget. So now its $750 mil–thats about half the total in one whack, right? But didnt we have a pesky court case over this?
These guys throw out blatant fairy tales, and still expect to be believed.
- thunderspirit - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:22 am:
== After generations of not being exposed to poverty, they don’t believe anyone should get a free lunch. They aren’t valuing what makes them a citizen and have replaced it with market consumerism. ==
Outstanding analogy, VM. Applause.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:22 am:
No, - lcd -
Making me a feeble example and painting me a racist without apologizing…
You deserve no respect, and certainly not my time.
===OW - on this one I will take silence as consent (given how many times you’ve demanded similar from other commenters.)===
No, my continued silence reflects your immaturity and that I’d would rather engage with ” - Anonymous - ” then someone who is so flippant and can’t apologize for racist analogies that include me, andike a child, thinks someone would want to interact with them.
It’s your choice to highlight your childishness.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:23 am:
Odds Rauner gets re-elected if he caves on budget ___%
Odds Rauner gets any significant concessions to his turnaround agenda items if he caves on budget ____%
Odds if Rauner doesn’t cave that Democrats will feel compelled to negotiate some non-budget items or pass a budget on their own _____%
Odds if Rauner doesn’t cave and Democrats don’t cave either that GOP legislators will lose reelection despite Rauner financial support _____%
Don’t the actors’ estimates to the above drive all of this.
- Triple fat - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:26 am:
Honeybear your comment about the artificially created crisis absolutely destroying the state labor force is spot on. Unfortunately decimating the work force is a major goal of the Administration. If the workforce can’t provide the services the State must rely on contracted services as the only viable option. The thinking by some that the ’superstars’ are inept is not a true analysis of their policy agenda. I believe they are well aware of the consequences involved.
- Big Joe - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:30 am:
RNUG
You comment to Cassandra says it all in this state. The sound bites and ads will win the elections a great majority of the time.
- Blue dog dem - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:33 am:
Vanilla @9:31,9:32,9:33. Pretty decent analogy. And here is the kicker, these hamburger eaters are a pretty diverse group. I have thought all along that this is not about Illinois. This is the National GOP agenda playing out. My hunch is the next move by the Dems is a reintroduction of SB 1229. Rookie Bryant down in the 115th Definitly in play for a makeover.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:33 am:
OW - you mean the post where you asked “I’m going to ask you ONE time. Got it? One time. Are you calling me a racist?” And I answered “Absolutely not - in fact, just the opposite!” and tried to explain but you told me not to respond and then raised it again and I offered an apology which I thought you accepted but apparently not. Whatever. Regardless, by all means take any “OW” references I make will be merely to identify the arguments in the thread I’m referring to.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:33 am:
Excellent column Rich. I’ve also enjoyed reading the Raunerbots falling all over themselves trying to counter the great points in Rich’s article. What they haven’t done is point out any evidence that Rich’s information is wrong.
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:42 am:
OW- Gov. 1.4% is making his play for the black caucus today. DCEO is unveiling a minority business program in Chicago. According to my buddy it’s total fluff and no substance. I hope they aren’t fooled by it and peeled off. But there is the play.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:48 am:
No - lcd -
You took your two tries. Your child-like rant here only reinforces my wise choice trying not to engage you.
To the Post,
Raunerbots,
Besides Ken Dunkin, where o where are these 12 HDems?
Also, this year’s budget is devimating social services, including the $6 million owed to LSSI.
That’s this year’s budget. Please, keep up.
Governors own budgets. So, if the Raunerbots concede Bruce Rauner is inept and can’t formulate a budget, a blueprint to his own agencies and funding their missions, then I’ll bevthe first to ask Cullerton and Madigan to step in… and do the duties of the Illinois Executive.
What governor in their right mind wants a legislative body dictating, over a veto too, the missions of their own agencies?
Don’t answer that because why I’m the world would Madigan and Cullerton vote, twice, for a vetoed budget that Rauner would tour the state railing against, while funding his government?
They. Wouldn’t.
Rauner’s vetoes also show, Bruce cares more about $510 million and a 1.4% return on an agenda, while destroying unions, then doing the doable and governing.
Food for thought.
- Crispy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:55 am:
V-man: As always, brilliant observations/metaphors.
However, in the case of Illinois, I don’t think it was so much that Bruce persuaded voters to go out for “burgers”; I think it was more that many decided to send the message that they would no longer be patronizing “Pat’s Place,” and then promptly tuned out after the election.
I think Rauner is even more unpopular (at least outside the collar counties) than many realize; the Raunerites, like the Tea Partiers on a national scale, are a minority with an extreme agenda. However, like the TPers, they’re a noisy, committed and well-funded minority.
I think non-politically connected Illinoisans have a deep sense of powerlessness and apathy, perceiving that their wishes make very little difference to the powers that be. “A pox on both their houses” isn’t really an endorsement of BVR.
The thing is, many people seem vaguely leery of Rauner, but they don’t have enough facts or personal connection to do anything. There’s a great opportunity being missed by the unions/Dems/social service providers/advocacy groups to band together to publicize Rauner’s role in the current disaster–not so much in the sense of all the “Union Now!” rhetoric, but more in terms of putting a human face on the situation with workers, students, and those who rely on social services. Every time the governor goes back on a promise, tells a lie, or has another “let them eat cake” moment, they should be capitalizing on that, rolling it into a coordinated messaging strategy. Instead, it’s a bunch of crickets interspersed with fearful whining. Nobody’s making the case to John Q. Public why all this should be of concern to him, personally; nobody’s presenting a throat-grabbing argument and continually reinforcing it. Why should John Q. listen? He’s got bills to pay and family crises to attend to.
I hope things start picking up soon. It’s, what? Two months till the primary? Frustrating, to say the least.
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 10:56 am:
“Mr.JM - there’s nothing in the Illinois Constitution that forbids the governor from including non-budgetary conditions to the negotiation.”
Who said there was? Sure wasn’t me.
If you wanna do battle with a Straw Man, please leave me out of it.
– MrJM
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:07 am:
What I’d like to see are the prospective costs to the state and could occur as a result of a widespread lowering of wages. What would happen to local economies and government coffers when thousands of workers have less money to spend?
According to a report, the world’s richest 1% now has as much wealth as everyone else. This is where we should go to get revenue. Rauner and other super-wealthy people must pay more in state taxes.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35339475
We are hemmed in by our constitution in regards to a progressive income tax, but Democrats and their union allies should strongly make the case that the rich should pay more, and the sacrifices necessary to fix the state shouldn’t just be gouged out of the so-called working class.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:08 am:
Odds that LCD can make any rational defense for the cost of the Turnaround Agenda, based on the governor’s own numbers?
O%
Odds that he’ll repeatedly change the subject and construct strawmen because of his inability to do so?
100%
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:10 am:
Can somebody explain why that $510 million number is the only one included in the analysis? Why aren’t we adding up all the savings and then using whatever that percentage is?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:11 am:
===Gov. 1.4% is making his play for the black caucus today. DCEO is unveiling a minority business program in Chicago.===
They got Dunkin fairly easily. It will be up to the members of the Black Caucus to accept the Governor and the proposal as the governmental response, and then work to defeat Rauner at every turn after.
The politics and governing for this governor rarely meet the words and actions used to describe the rationale.
I say that too because a governor without a budget rolling out programs is embarrassing. Rauner just doesn’t know that yet.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:14 am:
===Why aren’t we adding up all the savings and then using whatever that percentage is?===
From the interview: “For example,” Rauner said, “if we can get business regulatory change so I can recruit manufacturers here and more transportation companies here, and more businesses here, we can generate billions of new revenue without raising tax rates.”
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:18 am:
=== “For example,” Rauner said, “if we can get business regulatory change so I can recruit manufacturers here and more transportation companies here, and more businesses here, we can generate billions of new revenue without raising tax rates.”===
Translation?
Trust me, but… I can’t prove any numbers, I have no way to show how will go, and I can’t point to any number to justify my program.
There’s no numbers because the measurable is a result unknown, for better or worse.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:24 am:
There’s this, too:
http://www.sj-r.com/news/20160119/study-illinois-lost-53m-in-bond-sale-due-to-poor-finances-?rssfeed=true
This can’t help Rauner’s lazy numbers either.
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:27 am:
Triple Fat, here’s the problem with the “privatization” theory. The companies aren’t lining up to take the work. It’s unbelievably vast what has to be done to make a state function. Private companies won’t be able to do it. It is going to be utter chaos. It’s why the GOVERNOR MUST HAVE LABOR ON STRIKE to lay blame and cover up the greatest tragedy of Illinois history, a self inflicted economic collapse of an entire state. We are in collapse now. It’s not coming later. It’s happening right this second with the non-payment of vendors/contractors, the cutting of contracts and relationships by agencies,the lack of funding for agencies, the collapse of the social service network, the loss of public servants and the knowledge they held, ALL THIS IS HAPPENING NOW. We need to recognize the dam is breaking, the water is starting to gush through the other side. Just because it still looks like a dam from the one side doesn’t mean that the break isn’t in process. It is folks. And just like a dam, at some point you can’t patch it, it’s gonna blow. I make the argument that we are past the point of patching.
- Independent retired lawyer, journalist - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:31 am:
Further translation of the governor’s comment to Rich: “Because I said so.”
As for today’s photo-op, will Dunkin Donuts be introducing him? All sounds like more divide-and-conquer, politics of cynicism, to me.
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:33 am:
I don’t understand the response Rich. I wasn’t being cheeky or anything. I totally agree he’s being rather opaque about all this. But I was looking at the memo or powerpoint, whatever it is, here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6dGFHei02cER4VzQ/view
If we were truly giving this a fair shake, wouldn’t we add up the Economic Growth numbers ($510M) plus all the other savings, and then subtract the loss of revenue projected by the tax freeze? Wouldn’t THAT be the total savings?
Now, the only reason I’m asking this is because I have no idea where these numbers are coming from, and maybe that’s what you guys are saying. “We aren’t including those because they’re imaginary.” If so, fine. But I’m lost
- Mama - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:42 am:
“What we need to do is get these burger eaters to rediscover the value of our buffet.”
VM, That sounds good, but those burger eaters think they know it all, & refuse to listen to reason. How does one educate those type of people?
- Pawn - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:45 am:
Are we realistically expecting significant manufacturing to move here? Do we see that anywhere in the Rust Belt, including in the hallowed states of WI and IN? Seems to me that a manufacturing economy is not realistic for the Midwest. So one of the Governor’s big Ifs is based on a fantasy about yesterday, not a forecast for tomorrow.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:45 am:
All of this mess and the projected savings isn’t even 0.25% of the State’s GDP.
- sideline watcher - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:50 am:
“Gov. 1.4% is making his play for the black caucus today. DCEO is unveiling a minority business program in Chicago. According to my buddy it’s total fluff and no substance. I hope they aren’t fooled by it and peeled off. But there is the play.”
They aren’t fooled. Just like they aren’t fooled by the criminal justice reforms or the bashing of Rahm over the McDonald video. Those are the right things to do. But he doens’t get to stand on some moral high ground as if anything else he is doing is helpful to the AA community at all. They know the effect of no map grants on Black students. They know the effects of the social safety net on Black citizens. They know who was responsible for kicking 90 percent of kids off of childcare and then when they partially raised the elegibility rates seemed surprised that everyone wasn’t falling all over themselves to say thank you for partly fixing what you didn’t have to break in the first place.
They also know that there are plenty of cynics out there who don’t believe the Black Caucus is smart enough to understand politics.
They aren’t fooled. Not in the least.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:12 pm:
RNUG-If I have it right, the healthcare “savings” come from employees paying more, not any provider cost containment initiatives. At $750 million in particular, I’m wondering if they have thrown the retirees into the mix. Indy must not know Kanerva.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:17 pm:
Mr. JM - then I’m not following your argument - the question was why didn’t Madigan and Cullerton offer a budget. I don’t think because the Constitution calls for Rauner to offer one means they are above criticism because Rauner didn’t formally present something as ridiculous as Madigan’s (i.e., something that called for sequester to balance the budget pending additional revenue?) - it’s time wasting kabuki. Both sides are playing “the politics of misery” until somebody blinks.
- cdog - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:17 pm:
JPD– please use this link to get the background of the 1.4%. It includes links to source docs prepared by Administration Superstars.
https://capitolfax.com/2016/01/14/todays-number-14-percent/
- Patrick Kane I'm not - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:22 pm:
OW - The bottom line is Sandack was rewarded with the plum appointment in Raunerville. He was able to get his golf partner the ED job at the tollways.
You can bet the farm he will never get off the reservation as long as he controls the tolls..
So moving forward expect Ron to tow the line till the bitter end .
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:25 pm:
Thanks cdog, I saw that and had the same question last week. Maybe I’m just missing something, but I don’t get it. I’m by no means a Rauner supporter, but it seems like at the very least we’d include some sort of placeholder number for the savings as well as the growth. And again, if the response to that is that they’ve shown no work, so we aren’t including that in our criticism, well fine, just say so. Otherwise, I don’t see why we’re pointing ONLY to the $510 million, and not the $1.8 Billion in savings
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:33 pm:
-Johnny-,
Part of it is not counting the “savings” we all know are pure fiction. The narrative in one of Rich’s posts last week signaled out that fiction.
For example (don’t remember if this was an item but just make a point), any claim of pension savings is a pipe dream because you can’t reduce the existing liability, can’t cut actual pensions, can’t cut AAI, can’t increase the employee payments for current benefits, and can’t force employees to a different plan. Doesn’t matter that Rauner still believes that Sindley delusion you can do it to yet unearned benefits, the IL SC has already said NO.
The same can honestly be said about a number of the claimed savings items.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:38 pm:
=== at the very least we’d include some sort of placeholder number for the savings as well as the growth===
Did you not read the column? Those numbers are in there.
- working stiff - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:38 pm:
great article and i tip my hat to vanillaman on the comment at 9:31.
- sal-says - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:46 pm:
== Their failures are the reason Rauner won. ==
Raunner won because he lied about his ‘plan’ and because he was-not-Quinn.
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:50 pm:
Yes, I read the column last week, and the one today. And again, I have no problem waving our hands at one or more of the line items because they lack detail, but it seems kinda arbitrary. I mean, they’re all hypothetical at this point. You write that this pain is all over $510 million in hypothetical growth, and that this amounts to only 1.4%. Okay, but the $1.8 billion in savings is equally as speculative right? I guess what I’m trying to figure out is, is there some other reason those numbers aren’t included? Like somehow they’re even MORE speculative than the $510 M you take them at their word for?
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 12:52 pm:
Perhaps my confusion is that 1.4% is only economic growth, and I was thinking that was a percentage of a fiscal budget
- Mama - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:06 pm:
==- Honeybear - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:27 am:==
You tell it like it is. The dam has been damaged pass repairs, and it is going to blow soon.
- sal-says - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:08 pm:
== - Honeybear - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 11:27 am: ==
Exactly. Strikes me like ‘climate change’. Just because some don’t believe it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
Also guessing a lot of private vendors won’t be lining up with no prospect of payment.
To VM’s analogy. Folks may soon start understanding that they DO want more than burgers, as more & more State services dry up.
- Mama - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:13 pm:
“It’s unbelievably vast what has to be done to make a state function. Private companies won’t be able to do it. It is going to be utter chaos.” Honeybear, Rauner and company does not care if the private companies won’t be able to do the work. Rauner wants the unions gone - he doesn’t care if the work gets done or not.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:22 pm:
To continue the dam analogy, right now you can just see small ripples a eddys on the surface but the bottom current is busy undermining the dam foundation. When the foundation gives way, there will be a flood that sweeps downstream wiping everything out for a period of time, most likely years if not a decade or more.
- History Prof - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
Hey OW,
I admire so much of your analysis, but lighten up on poor Stalemate? and others like him. When new people come to the blog, they just don’t know. So by all means inform him, but with great respect, I think you should have treated him/her with greater respect.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:55 pm:
I have thought all along that this is not about Illinois. This is the National GOP agenda playing out.
Our entire society believes we can customize anything for our own particular needs, and eliminate anything that costs too much. Insurance is supposed to be targeted right down to the miles driven and the value of the vehicle. We wear clothes that fit us, not Mao suits. We watch television channels that do nothing but tell you how to customize your home in every conceivable way. Custom cars. Custom boats. Custom DNA-based pharmaceuticals.
Who believes that we should pay more for anything just to help the less fortunate? We see news stories where our neighbors set up GoFundMe projects when tragedy strikes.
We are seeing less need to save money, participate in civic groups, put a buck into the Salvation Army kettle, attend a church, or stand for something outside our own insular needs.
This seems cyclical however. Our history shows periods of time when everyone thinks they are kings and queens in their own castles. Even as France was blitzkrieg and Paris surrendered, a majority of Americans didn’t want to support those dying for freedom against the Nazi and Communist conquerors. We wanted our Ovaltine and Model A Fords instead.
Weak leaders weaken government in the eyes of voters. Effective leaders do the opposite. After Ryan, Blagojevich, Quinn and Rauner, Illinoisans don’t value their government. That will change when we get an effective governor.
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 1:56 pm:
RNUG- Yep, I’m down here near the foundation and it’s just about gone. Workers are leaving in droves 20 in my office alone (72-52). The employment people who rented space have been gone since August. Applications for initial benefits are through the roof. We’re weeks behind in redeterminations. People are actively looking for jobs in the private sector, but pickings are slim to none. AND ALL THIS before we really heat it up with labor unrest. I can’t speak to the contractors or venders but they can’t be happy. These are the facts. Just google a dam break. We’re at that point where you see cracks and water is spraying out. The second he forces a strike by issuing the horrific last,best, and final….well….you know what happens then. People downstream, the public, won’t know till it’s too late. It will come about just like the great recession. Companies will start to fold or pull out of Illinois and then it will domino. The state and municipalities will start to default on debt. The job loss and disruption will wreak havoc on the already deathly ill municipalities and counties. People downstream have no idea how intertwined businesses, communities, and local government are. We are a symbiotic system folks.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 2:00 pm:
- History Prof -,
Thanks for your very kind words.
I was heavy-handed, and while I came down very hard, it’s tiring when comments begin from a new commenter starts with that opening, many times that’s when the trolling begins.
I’ll take yours, and - Cassandra -’s words to heart.
With respect,
OW
- Omega Man - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 2:32 pm:
We might start to back away from this precipice if all parties would try a little COMPROMISING !
- Cheswick - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 2:44 pm:
== Rauner said, “if we can get business regulatory change so I can recruit manufacturers here and more transportation companies here, and more businesses here, we can generate billions of new revenue without raising tax rates.” ==
It’s becoming clearer and clearer, that these are just salesman words he’s throwing around. He must think we’ll all be turning cartwheels at the prospect of manufacturing and transportation jobs and the bringing in of billions in new revenue. In reality, it’s doubtful he can back up those claims. And even more doubtful that it’ll even happen.
Those are just words he’s using to distract us from his actual mission: to do away with unions and diminish the working class.
He must think we all just fell off the turnip truck.
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 3:18 pm:
“I don’t think because the Constitution calls for Rauner to offer one means they are above criticism because Rauner didn’t formally present something”
1) I have never said that anyone is “above criticism”. Yet another Straw Man.
2) Bruce Rauner has not presented a budget as required by Constitution of the State of Illinois. That is an irrefutable fact.
My standards for engaging with people on this blog aren’t onerous, but if you insist on arguing with things I never said AND ignoring the facts, it’s very likely I will start ignoring you.
– MrJM
- kitty - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 3:30 pm:
Crispy @ 10:55, very well stated. AFSCME, service providers and advocacy groups desperately need to coordinate their efforts with a sense of urgency to make the case to “John Q. Public” about the damage being done, BVR’s role in the current crisis and why diminishing working class families, such as advocated by Mr. Proft and corporate owned media boards, is immoral and will not solve the problems at hand. Next to the actual damage being inflicted upon vulnerable groups least able to advocate for themselves, my biggest concern is the lack of a coordinated and coherent message.
- Blue dog dem - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 3:43 pm:
Rich, I am kinda thinking you may not get another chance to ask the RAUN Man any more questions.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 4:19 pm:
Fantastic column Rich!
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 4:48 pm:
-Kitty- how time changes people remember when Dan the Hypocrite Proft was milking the tax payers in Cicero.
Now that’s what we call a self righteous dude
- Facts are Stubborn Things - Tuesday, Jan 19, 16 @ 5:29 pm:
Rauner had a chance to use veto to bring legislative budget into balance with no tax increases…he chose not to. If he doesn’t want more taxes until he gets his “turn around agenda” he should have vetoed that budget and we would have a budget with 4 B. in cuts and the 2016 election could be on “turn around agenda” and tax increases.