Early voting shows strength, but for whom?
Friday, Mar 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* NBC Chicago…
At the age of 73, Madigan was first sworn into office in 1971 and, with the exception of two years, has been Speaker of the House since 1983.
At the age of 42, Gonzales, an innovation consultant, is a first-time candidate.
“His base is waning. It’s not as powerful as it used to be,” Gonzales said in an interview with NBC 5 at his Southwest Side campaign office, when asked about his opponent.
Maybe so, but the 13th Ward has now early voted a total of 1,709 people.
* Gonzales, however, thinks that’s a good sign. ABC 7…
On the southwest side, in House Speaker Micheal Madigan’s district, early voting numbers are off the charts. Madigan’s opponent Jason Gonzales believes high turnout helps him.
“I think early voting numbers show that I’m a real threat to Speaker Madigan and that I can very well win the race,” Gonzalez says.
Or not? Helen Snow is early voting for the convenience and she is sticking with Madigan.
“His office has been good to the seniors, so that is why I’m voting for him,” says Snow.
Election officials say because early voting is so popular it is no longer a reflection of turnout on Election Day, but is more representative of voters that have already made up their minds.
* WTTW…
Jason Gonzales says it’s fear that’s motivating the turnout.
Jason Gonzales: Certainly he’s pressuring his base to come out and vote early and to vote for him. I think Speaker Madigan is very worried that I may just win.
Voter John Vyhnenek isn’t buying it.
John Vyhnenek: No, he won’t lose. He’s got the people with him that are important.
Discuss.
…Adding… As noted in comments, Gonzales tells one reporter that high turnout helps him, then tells another reporter that Madigan is behind the big early voting turnout, but tells a third reporter that Madigan’s base “is waning.”
It can’t be all three, can it?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:22 am:
Unless Gonzo has Captains that can point to “who” those ballots are on their “plus” lists, it all guessing.
MJM’s Captains already know where theirs are.
That’s the difference.
- Anonymouth - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:26 am:
Gonzales is getting completely schooled here. Ask him how many plus voters he has district-wide and ask him how many of the early votes are made up of his plus voters. I would expect a blank stare in response.
- Down State Paul - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:28 am:
Wishful thinking for Mr. Gonzales. Madigan is still kingmaker in IL. Now back to reality.
- 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:28 am:
OW is correct. One must wonder if Gonzales even has a “plus” list.
- Beaner - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:30 am:
“innovation consultant” - Is this similar to being a “community organizer”?
- wordslinger - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:30 am:
So which is it?
–Madigan’s opponent Jason Gonzales believes high turnout helps him.
“I think early voting numbers show that I’m a real threat to Speaker Madigan and that I can very well win the race,” Gonzalez says.==
Or….
–Jason Gonzales says it’s fear that’s motivating the turnout.
Jason Gonzales: Certainly he’s pressuring his base to come out and vote early and to vote for him. I think Speaker Madigan is very worried that I may just win.–
Those are innovatively contradictory.
- Phil - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:32 am:
Sorry, Gonzo. This is definitely a bad sign for you. The early voters are the older, white Madigan loyalists in the ward who the precinct captains are getting to the polls as soon as possible in case there’s bad weather on the 15th.
If there’s a surge of first time voters on primary day, that would be a good sign for a challenger. What we are seeing now is the tell-tale mark of a fading, but still strong, organization.
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:32 am:
I think Voter John Vyhnenek pretty much said it all. Madigan likely has a big lead already — and even more likely, he knows exactly how many of those 1,709 voters were “his”.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:35 am:
The media will spend a lot of time on this race (unfortunately), but it’s a waste of time imo. Madigan’s going to win running away. I’d be nice for the media to focus on some of the other, closer, more interesting in the ‘what voters are thinking’ races.
- regular democrat - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:40 am:
The numbers wouldnt be off the charts if the captains in 13 werent pushing early voting. I believe tnat madigan knows within 25 votes how many are his.
- wolf - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:45 am:
The early vote turnout is an indication of one thing, and one thing only: Team MJM is working to run up the score. These numbers don’t just happen on their own; it’s the result of a concerted effort by his captains.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:46 am:
I heard a pundit on the radio this morning say that KY Sen. McConnell has a low approval rating nationwide. That doesn’t matter. He trounced his Democratic opponent in the 2014 election. It’s about what people think in the district or state. If Madigan is turning out his pluses, it’s because many value him in some way.
- Huh? - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Silly questions for the uninformed:
What are “plus lists” and “plus voters”?
Thanks
- Gooner - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:49 am:
With all the money going into the challenger, he really should have some field operation.
Those assuming that he does not should remember that he’s not your typical challenger. He’s well funded and if spent properly, he had people out identifying his pluses.
Did he? I don’t live there. But we should be cautious about making assumptions.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:53 am:
===Silly questions for the uninformed:
What are “plus lists” and “plus voters”?===
Identified voters that have indicated they will be voting FOR a candidate in an election.
You keep a list of them, you get those voters to the polls, or early vote them, during GOTV
- Team Sleep - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:53 am:
Grandson - correct, but McConnell’s leadership will be an issue in tight races and maybe even the Presidential election. SCOTUS hangs in the balance. Same goes for Illinois. MJM will become an issue - and, for once, slogans will be backed up by actual cash and ads. Pat Brady obviously thought he was clever, but Bruce Rauner and Dan Proft will have $$$ to actually blast.
FYI - I have no idea if it will work, and it is WAY above my pay grade to opine on whether the “Fire Madigan” thing is a good idea. But it will be used and it may tilt a race or two.
- BBG - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:55 am:
Plus lists and plus voters = a good organization who knows its voters. They’ve been doing a lot of door knocking! The old school of politics.
- Angry Republican - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:57 am:
Probably all Bernie Sanders voters that want their voice heard before the Clinton coronation.
- Anonymouth - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:06 am:
=== - Huh? - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Silly questions for the uninformed:
What are “plus lists” and “plus voters”? ===
Jason, is that you?
- downstate commissioner - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:10 am:
Anonymouth: LOL!
- Tom - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:11 am:
Rich: You really had to ask this in the headline?
“Early voting shows strength, but for whom?” My guess is 1700 are for Madigan. I can’t believe you even asked–you know better!
- Ubecha - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:13 am:
Pretty impressive early voting numbers, especially for the first week days, just wait until the Saturday “push”!
- Century Club - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:21 am:
If you are speculating about whether early voting is helping you… it is NOT helping you.
Also, this is absolutely true…
==Election officials say because early voting is so popular it is no longer a reflection of turnout on Election Day, but is more representative of voters that have already made up their minds.==
…so Jason, this is not actually high turnout, it is early turnout. There’s a difference. I bet if I ran the early vote list in the 13th Ward it would mostly be made of 2/3 or 3/3 Dem primary voters.
- ROTFLMAO State Worker - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:25 am:
Even the antiquated state agency data bases can mail merge and customize by local entity….that new DoIT agency is working out well!
- mokenavince - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:25 am:
Gonzales wins if he gets a huge Latino turn out. That said they don’t usually come out in huge numbers. I’m still glad a guy like Gonzales is willing to take a run at Madigan. Much better than a Madigan stooge who usually opposes him.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:39 am:
If you believe early voters are for the challenger, you are new to this.
- Century Club - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 10:49 am:
VanillaMan +1
(and hey, Gonzales is new to this)
- burbanite - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 11:03 am:
I am sorry but every time I see “innovation consultation” I laugh.
- Wow - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 11:03 am:
This was the best the Rauner operation could do? Embarrassing, if I’m a house Republican in the fall, and I’m counting on team Rauner and his millions, this operation would cause me many sleepless nights. Madigan trounces the Rauner candidate by 25-30 points.
- bestday - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 11:21 am:
Gonzales should chill.. big early turnout will be for Madigan..an easy 63-37 winner March 15
- bestday - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 11:23 am:
Early voters are for Madigan.. why . City workers, Dem Establishment voters..Where is John Bills when you need him ?
- Formerly Known As... - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 11:46 am:
What’s the line on Speaker Madigan in this race? 75%?
I’ll take the ==over==.
- Formerly KnownAs... - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 11:57 am:
==This was the best the Rauner operation could do?==
Depends if you think the purpose was to beat Madigan in his own district, or if the purpose was to consume energy, time and $ he could have been investing in other races.
Was their purpose to take out Madigan with a silver bullet? Remember the OODA Loops?
- Anonymouth - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 12:13 pm:
=== Gonzales wins if he gets a huge Latino turn out. ===
How do you figure? What data do you have that shows that Latino voters are trending heavily for Gonzales? I suspect that Madigan will get more Latino votes than Gonzales.
- Harry - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 12:23 pm:
Sure, it COULD be all three:
Madigan is scared because his base is waning, so he is doing a heavy early voting effort to be sure his voters get to the polls. That heavy eraly turnout is a sign he is concerned, hence optimistic for Gonzalez.
“COULD be” just means it’s not logically impossible. Madigan will win.
- Marcus Agrippa - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 1:00 pm:
Took a drive down 59th St. the other day on the way to Midway. In Dunkin’s district there were three or four Dunkin signs and one Stratton sign. I eventually entered Madigan’s district and it began… two signs in almost every yard on both sides of the street. One sign pro Madigan - the other vote no on Gonzalez. Black after block after block. Not a Gonzalez sign to be seen. Even the side streets had quite a few signs. And this is all in a middle class Latino neighborhood. The speaker does what he would expect one of his candidates to do. I wonder how many of those households with the signs has voted….
- Bleh - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 1:12 pm:
My sample is small, but most of the Latinos I’ve talked to in Madigans district are voting for Madigan. Granted these are not super low informed voters, but they’re not super active ones either. These are the ones that are being impacted by the fact that there is no budget, that child care regulations were changed last year, etc. While they might normally blame Madigan for problems in previous elections - today, this election season, they see Madigan as their only chance to stand up against Rauner.
I should say that ths folks I’m talking to, also voted for Chuy, so his endorsement was just a plus.
- anonymoose - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 1:42 pm:
Votes for Mr. Gonzalez? Nope. But still nice to see Mr. Speaker hustle to get elected for a change. Keeps Mr. Speaker distracted from greater mischief.
- Mama - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 1:51 pm:
Are early votes counted when an election is not close?
- Mama - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 1:53 pm:
Since they are not suppose to count the ballots until election day, how would anyone know whether Madigan is ahead or behind the big early voting turnout?
- Anonymouth - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 2:03 pm:
=== Since they are not suppose to count the ballots until election day, how would anyone know whether Madigan is ahead or behind the big early voting turnout? ===
Obviously you don’t “know” how anyone voted, but good campaign organizations have a good idea of whether the people that voted are with them or not.
- Snucka - Friday, Mar 4, 16 @ 2:14 pm:
Right… Madigan knows how many votes he needs, and he knows who are the voters that will get him to the magic number. So, his campaign gets Early Voter names from the county each day and can tell roughly how many votes he receives each day.