56 Comments - 360 Degree TurnAround - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:39 am: Thanks for the RunAground Agenda governor. - Not Sarah Palin - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:39 am: Is Alaska adjusted seasonally because it’s winter? - West Loop Chicago - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:39 am: Those lower taxes and great business leadership sure helped the state out. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:40 am: To our detriment IL is turning into a pro-business state, and these are the outcomes. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:40 am: 6.3% is a much more realistic number than the national unemployment rate. There are probably 4 or 5 people out there who truly believe the 4.9 figure. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:42 am: Again I point to a non-functional DCEO and the governor who won’t staff or fund it. Where are the results from having a pro business Governor? Has Schultz and company done anything besides work on a ppp? Surely they have been trying to get companies in the door in the interim? Why is there nothing to show for a year? This was supposed to be the governors best agency! Okay so where are the results? - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:45 am: @Anon 8:40am Learn the difference between facts and statistics before making such a foolishly obtuse remark. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:45 am: Illinois: Hammered and Shaken. – MrJM - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:48 am: –Over the last year, Illinois added 49,600 jobs, but there were not enough added to make up for those lost. – That sentence, of course, makes no sense at all, as any third-grade math or English whiz could tell you. Clearly, the reporter and editors who worked on this story have never read a BLS report in their lives. From that report: Illinois Employment: Jan. 2015: 5,918,100 Jan. 2016: 5,967,700 Statistically significant Gain: 49,600 Here’s the link to the BLS release. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm The purpose of the story, obviously, under the Rauner/Ferro management, is the lede. The addition of 50K jobs in one year is a bad thing. Remember that. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:50 am: Mitsubishi closing did not help the numbers as only a few are still working closing up the place. - Juice - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:53 am: To piggy back on what word just wrote, the jobs number is a net number, and already takes into account jobs lost. The reason why the unemployment rate is up is because according to the BLS, around 85,000 people entered the labor force. So the increase in jobs was not able to keep up with the number of people entering the labor force, which is different than the nonsense in the article. - Ahoy! - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:55 am: People blaming the Governor who is only been in office a little over a year is hilariously sad and unfortunately gives me concern that our State is going to continue a downward economic trajectory. This is a problem because our state has created a bad business environment over more than a decade. If it were not for Chicago being one of only two world class hub cities, these numbers would be much worse for the State. Acknowledgement and agreement of the cause of the problem is a first step toward renewal and we haven’t gotten there yet. - Maximus - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:56 am: The unemployment rate is a result of a bad business climate in Illinois making it hard for small business owners (and others) to operate here. I’m not sure we are putting blame in the correct place. I can post links to information about how Illinois is business un-friendly. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:56 am: === This is a problem because our state has created a bad business environment over more than a decade=== OK, but what has happened in the past 14 months? Not exactly great fiscal stewardship. - Jerry H - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:59 am: Thank You Madigan and Cullerton. 30 Years as Speaker and all I got was this T-Shirt. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:01 am: Ahoy, we must remember that Governor Rauner campaigned in 2014 saying that Illinois was not a good place to do business. And before that, House and Senate Republicans said it since 2003. What bad business environment over the past ten years? Three workers’ compensation system reforms, taxes just dropped in 2015, major highways, major airports, and one big river add to a good business climate. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:01 am: Wordslinger: I direct your attention to the following quote from the story: “The greatest increase was in an area typically with lower-paying jobs: Leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants and hotels, added 20,700 jobs.” I know you’re just calling out the numbers and it’s a fair point, but you frequently post this kind of “Illinois rah-rah” stuff about job growth, GDP growth, booming construction in Chicago, etc. That ignores the bigger picture: wage stagflation, unequal distribution, the increasing unreliability of unemployment numbers b/c of worker dropout, and the fact that whatever job increases there have been, we’re at what most economists say is the tail end of the recovery. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:12 am: The problem is that DCEO has been playing with their toys and not getting out there hustling jobs for our state. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:12 am: If you, unlike the Tribbies, actually read the report, you’ll find the following among states in our neighborhood: Wisconsin and Missouri were stagnant, with no statistically significant gains/losses in employment in 2015. States that had statistically significant gains in employment in 2015. Illinois: +49,600 Indiana: +45,800 Michigan: +87,300 Iowa: +23,500 Kentucky: +26,100 So, in 2015, both the labor force and the number of employed in Illinois showed statistically significant gains. Not exactly in keeping with the Death Spiral narrative. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:14 am: “People blaming the Governor who is only been in office a little over a year is hilariously sad” It’s politics. If the shoe was on the other foot, there would be Republicans pouncing on the Democratic governor. This is a great example of how an economy is more than just tax rates. We had a substantial income tax cut but not good job growth. - cdog - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:15 am: ‘…remember that Governor Rauner campaigned in 2014 saying that Illinois was not a good place to do business…” Gov Rauner is listening to the wrong audience (greedy publicly traded companies that answer to Wall Street/CNBC/over-compensated execs), and banging the wrong drum (more womp womp womp). Illinois is a great place to do business if you respect your employees, your customers, your vendors, and your regulators. IDOR gets happy payments from this house all the time–501s, 1120s, etc….. - NoGifts - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:17 am: The net gain would have been more but for all the local government employees, social service employees and university employees whose jobs were eliminated by the state’s budget disaster. - Cook County Commoner - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:19 am: The misuse of numbers is well characterized by the ascending hierarchy of untruth in the phrase “lies, damned lies and statistics.” The large swaths of people categorized by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its U-1 thru U-6 labor utilization statistics (U-3 being the arbitrarily selected favorite) have some value to economists. In densely populated areas, like northeastern Illinois, a mediocre say overall 5% U-3 masks the social impact of a say 12% U-3 in many areas brought down to the 5% average by remarkably low unemployment in other areas. - Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:19 am: This report defines why a pro business governor was elected. Too many of our citizens are falling behind. Hard to defend the status quo given these bleak numbers. What is the alternative proposal for economic development from the Democrats? Voters should demand specifics, saying no to Rauner with no plans of your own is unacceptable. - Downstate - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:20 am: Could this still be the Quinn economy we are trying to correct? - Handle Bar Mustache - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:23 am: 360: I’d suggest the fact that “taxes just dropped” is not contributing to a “good business climate” in Illinois. Agree with everything else you said, though. - Forgottonian - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:24 am: Word - Those job gains are raw numbers. Wouldn’t it be more relevant to do a per capita analysis? After all, Kentucky has a much lower general population. Perhaps a more accurate comparison would be the number of job gains per the number of working age people. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:24 am: A bad business environment? Every single time I read about layoffs at CPS, EIU, SIU, WIU, GSU, autism assistance and the various victims Rich points out almost weekly………I look at that list and think about the growing unemployment. This is deliberately caused by our governor. He specifically is causing some of the unemployment—systematically and deliberately. But then he can tsk-tsk all of us about it. We did not cause this. - Juice - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:25 am: And LCD, according the the BLS, wages in the third quarter of 2015 were up 3.9% over the third quarter 2014, third highest rate of growth in the country with that anti-Union bastion of Oregon taking the lead at 4.4%. (National average was 2.6%). But, you know, death spiral and all. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:25 am: –I know you’re just calling out the numbers and it’s a fair point, but you frequently post this kind of “Illinois rah-rah” stuff about job growth, GDP growth, booming construction in Chicago, etc. That ignores the bigger picture: wage stagflation, unequal distribution, the increasing unreliability of unemployment numbers b/c of worker dropout, and the fact that whatever job increases there have been, we’re at what most economists say is the tail end of the recovery.– Dude, I post data. Some people don’t like that when it steps on their fact-free tantrums. I don’t know what “wage stagflation” is, but income stagnation and the overwhelming distribution of productivity gains to capital rather than labor just ain’t a state problem. It’s a global phenomenon in the G-7 economies and has been since the 1970s. I don’t think any “job creation” snake oil out of Springfield will solve that. Education. Infrastructure. Public safety. Rule of law. General welfare. That’s the gig on the state level. - Maximus - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:25 am: There are numerous articles published about how Illinois does not have a business friendly climate and it’s been that way for a long time. This unemployment rate we see compared to other Midwest states is a symptom. - Handle Bar Mustache - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:28 am: ==Quinn economy we are trying to correct?== Visit http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST170000000000003 Examine the “Quinn economy”. Note: It improved. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:32 am: Wordslinger: Not to say that gaining jobs is a bad thing, but again, the context of wages is critical. Hypothetically speaking, replacing five middle-class jobs with ten minimum wage jobs raises employment is not a good thing and would indeed fit in a “death spiral” narrative. I’m particularly wary of new jobs in the caretaking field: it’s driven by baby boomers and will eventually shrink. A state that hangs onto its better paying jobs but stays stagnant overall is arguably healthier. Again, the context matters. It’s interesting though that of the states you mention as stagnant, one has a GOP governor, one has a Dem. Conversely, all of the states showing job increases are run by Republicans. So I sure hope context matters! - Union Man - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:41 am: Rauner has been the destruction accelerator. We are clearly worse off now than a year ago. Is it any wonder that we have had a surge in low paying jobs with this 1% Administration. - Ahoy! - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:43 am: –=== This is a problem because our state has created a bad business environment over more than a decade=== OK, but what has happened in the past 14 months? Not exactly great fiscal stewardship.– I agree and what we’re doing to our workforce institutions (universities & community colleges) could have even longer term negative ramifications. I’m just not there yet to blame the governor because I also believe things are bad and we need to make significant changes that Madigan is not budging on. Yes, the Governor could cave, pass a budget but I at least understand why the Governor is trying to make some significant reforms to better position our state to create private sector jobs. Again, I don’t really like what the Governor is doing and it’s not what I would do, but things are not good in this State and they were bad long before he was Governor. Also, a couple people mentioned workers comp reforms, Illinois Democrats, unions and trial lawyers are the only people who classify it as reform, it really didn’t do much. And yes, the state taxes went down, but with the enormous debt Illinois has, everyone knows those taxes are going up at some point. Outside of Chicago our State does not have much going for it, and that is one reason I believe significant changes need to be made. - Union Man - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:44 am: IL has the 5th largest economy in the U S. “Not business friendly” doesn’t flush. If one thinks “business friendly” means paying lowest wages possible, then you are right, IL IS NOT for you. - cdog - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:45 am: The calendar year numbers might tell one story, as discussed in the above posts. But, the FY16 economic numbers, month by month, and regionally reviewed, will more than likely show two, and maybe three, quarters of recession in most regions of the state. Thus, the RAUNER RECESSION will be documented and prove that deviating from normal governing, and purposefully creating chaos and damage, is not worth the economic price being paid. “Education. Infrastructure. Public safety. Rule of law. General welfare,” create the desired business environment. Not this neo-GOP junk. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:49 am: t matters. –It’s interesting though that of the states you mention as stagnant, one has a GOP governor, one has a Dem. Conversely, all of the states showing job increases are run by Republicans. So I sure hope context matters!– In a global economy, I think it’s nuts to think of governors’ influence as anything but marginal — unless they really screw up the core functions, as this one is doing now. “Job creating” governors is a political p.r. stunt that only suckers buy; you don’t see courses in “state economies” and “state job creation” in any university economics department. - WhoKnew - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:56 am: “fact-free tantrums.” Love it! - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 9:58 am: ==Those job gains are raw numbers. Wouldn’t it be more relevant to do a per capita analysis? After all, Kentucky has a much lower general population.== Have at it. - Juice - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 10:06 am: I will say don’t have at it. It’s the theory of economic convergence. And they’re not close. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 10:13 am: ===Could this still be the Quinn economy we are trying to correct?=== That is absolutely what is being tried. When Quinn took office, unemployment was about 10%. When he left, it was a little under 6%. So we need to go back to where we were before Quinn #Winning - Magic carpet ride - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 10:25 am: This gov has learned like all govs-When things are good its my fault when things are bad its the dems fault. - Phoenix - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 11:03 am: But the Governor is running Illinois like a business, right? Feels like an anti business result. - The Shake - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 11:11 am: The Turnback Agenda.. - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 11:33 am: Chicago metro had 55,600 new jobs created year over year in January 2016. This implies the rest of the state is losing jobs. - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 11:36 am: Downstate Illinois has three main employment sources, manufacturing, government and farms (the numbers being discussed are non farm payrolls). Having government being a main source of employment is a terrible thing. Illinois is not friendly to manufacturing. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 12:35 pm: Ya Ducky, Quinn finally learned how to, uh, adjust those numbers(more people leaving the workforce cough cough) from BHO. Again, we found one of the 4 or 5 who truly believe these are accurate numbers—congrats. - anon - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 12:48 pm: Under Democratic control, the unemployment rate was 6% in January 2015. After a year of Rauner, the rate has risen to 6.3% — highest in the nation. When does any of the responsibility belong to the Governor? - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 12:56 pm: Unemployment numbers are not particularly meaningful. Lots of noise, the numbers to look at are the non farm payrolls. - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 12:58 pm: The main reason the unemployment rate is higher in January 2016 than 2015 is that the labor force grew by 87,000 people. - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 12:59 pm: Of the 87K larger labor force, almost 64K are employed. - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 1:01 pm: The big news in the numbers is that Chicago metro had its strongest year in job growth in 2015 since 1995. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 2:53 pm: Tone, what is the U6 number? - Tone - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 4:12 pm: U6 was 10.9% in Illinois in 2015 vs. 10.4% for the country. Our neighbors U6 in 2015: Iowa 7% Indiana 9% Missouri 9.3% Wisconsin 8.3% Kentucky 10.3% - MadCo - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:29 pm: A horrible effort at journalism by this reporter, the article literally makes no sense. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.