After the general?
Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Public Radio…
The primary is over, so will Illinois lawmakers and Republican Governor Bruce Rauner finally agree on a budget? Some who watch state government closely say chances aren’t so great.
Emily Miller is with ‘Voices for Illinois Children.’ She says the state’s political leaders will now likely shift focus to the general election in November.
“At first folks thought that perhaps after the primary election, people would be removed enough from the political side to make sound policy decisions. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that it won’t be until after the general election that people are able to leave politics behind.”
Even that may be optimistic.
* This is a long game for both sides, but the governor has more than ample resources to fight…
Surface results from the March 15 primary election are in: Gov. Bruce Rauner can apparently neither protect those who support him nor punish those who oppose him, while House Speaker Mike Madigan and his union allies can do both.
But billionaires playing in Illinois politics have more money than Madigan and his allies can ever scrape together, and the latter burned through much of their stockpile to defend important yet small parts of their turf on Tuesday.
As savvy political pundit Rich Miller pointed out recently, Rauner makes about a million dollars a week, and his buddy, hedge fund director Ken Griffin, just dropped $500 million to buy a couple of paintings. So scores of millions for politics are but trifling matters to the governor, Griffin, and their sympathizers.
* Meanwhile…
However, the primary results don’t mean Rauner and those who support his agenda will change their strategy, campaign finance expert Redfield said.
“Is it possible the governor can look at this and say, ‘There’s a limit to what I can do with my money, and I need to recalibrate’?” Redfield said. “I don’t think that’s the lesson he’s going to draw from this.” […]
The $6 million in the Dunkin-Stratton contest is more than most governors raise to win elections and more than many members of Congress raise, [Edwin Bender, executive director of the Montana-based National Institute on Money in State Politics] said. […]
“This isn’t about elections; this is about winning a policy war, a political war,” he said. “When you have the concentration of money and power in the hands of so few people, that’s a very frightening prospect for the future of policy making in Illinois.”
…Adding… Related…
* More spent on just 3 races than in all 2014 legislative races
- Anon - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:57 am:
think of how much money labor could have saved if 40%W of union households didn’t vote for Rauner. How bad a guy is Pat Quinn now? Remember when you boo’d him at the state fair, AFSCME? Remember when you boo’d him at the rally, teachers? Have fun raising and blowing gobs of money every election that Bruce Rauner decides to take you on. He wont even break a sweat.
- illinois manufacturer - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:02 am:
I dont think any amount of money will save downballot republicans from the chaos above. Rauner may want to burn money but most rich people wont just look at the Koch spending or rather non spending. I strongly recommend buying more art especially ceramics instead
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:03 am:
===Is it possible the governor can look at this and say, ‘There’s a limit to what I can do with my money, and I need to recalibrate’?” Redfield said. “I don’t think that’s the lesson he’s going to draw from this.” […]====
Can’t agree more.
This November will be about ideology and Rauner “winning” than Rauner thinking that the GOP is a party looking hit a leader.
“I own the ILGOP. They will do as I say and lose, or run against me and take their chances… ” - Fake Bruce Rauner.
People get tired far quicker than money dies.
Food for thought.
===think of how much money labor could have saved if 40%W of union households didn’t vote for Rauner. ===
You vote against your better selves, this is what happens.
Labor really showed me something Tuesday.
I’m with Labor and Local 150 all day every day, thrice on Sun-Day…
By July 4th, Labor needs a plan. I hope they deliver… again.
- In the Middle - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:04 am:
“When you have the concentration of money and power in the hands of so few people…”
From a Republic to an Oligarchy we go, now enjoy the ride.
- Huh? - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:04 am:
““Is it possible the governor can look at this and say, ‘There’s a limit to what I can do with my money, and I need to recalibrate’?” Redfield said. “I don’t think that’s the lesson he’s going to draw from this.””
A good business man would look at his ROI and say that something isn’t working and do something else.
What does 1.4% do - he doubles down.
- CharlieKratos - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:07 am:
Illinoisans have never been quick to make the correct choice when voting. Case in point, Chicago made sure that the only presidential candidate who will make getting rid of Citizens United a priority, didn’t win the Illinois primary.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:09 am:
===fA good business man would look at his ROI and say that something isn’t working and do something else.===
Only if he was merely looking for results in the next quarter. This isn’t about the next quarter.
- AC - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:12 am:
Kasich was capable of learning that reducing union rights was politically damaging, is Rauner?
“I don’t think that’s the lesson he’s going to draw from this.”
I’m not sure what lessons is Rauner capable of learning when the only thing he has to lose is public institutions he hates and what amounts (to him) as some pocket change.
- Daniel Plainview - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:12 am:
- Only if he was merely looking for results in the next quarter. This isn’t about the next quarter. -
Yes, clearly the superstars are visionaries. After their resounding victory over former Governor Edgar’s preferred candidates, I hear next they’re going after Ogilvie.
The Democratic establishment should be terrified.
- Independent Retiree Lawyer Journalist - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:14 am:
Carnack says Madigan will set it up so that after his forces win in November, Rauner veto(es) will be overridden in the Veto Session and it will be then forthcoming that we will have a budget as the governor has to start thinking about 2018.
- DuPage - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:17 am:
I think a budget will happen when it is passed by a veto-proof majority, not before then.
- Century Club - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:19 am:
What would change after the general election? Rauner’s going to pick off a couple House Democrats? Or not?
As Shel Silverstein would say, “What’s one House Democrat, more or less?”
As other commenters have said before, the longer Rauner holds out, the more he purges universities and social service spending. He’s going to keep on #winning! until he’s not Governor anymore.
- Honeybear - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:26 am:
By July 4th, Labor needs a plan. I hope they deliver… again.
By July 4th? With all due respect, we are executing the plan right now. Now we may have a course correction by July 4th. We may have to initiate certain sequences of the plan depending on the actions of Rauner, BUT in truth AFSCME is on the attack NOW. We had a belly full of reacting to Rauner. Now we are on the offensive. But the majority of it is asymmetrical and not public displays. That’s what Rauner wants and we are not going to give him what he wants. Rauner has united Labor and motivated to work with and coordinate activity like never before. I’m working with the Trades folks, I’m working with folks all over the state. Nope we’re on offence.
- Mittuns - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:27 am:
That 41% of Union households who voted for Rauner really taught Quinn a lesson. They brought a lot of this on themselves. Unfortunately, tens of thousands of people have to pay the consequences for their laughable cognitive dissonance.
- Century Club - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:27 am:
Apologies to Shel Silverstein…
The Speaker’s Toothache
The Speaker
Went to the Governor
And sat down in the chair,
And the Governor said, “Now tell me, sir,
Why does it hurt and where?”
And the Speaker said, “I’ll tell you the truth,
We have no MAP funding for our youth,”
And he opened his jaws so wide, so wide,
The Governor, he climbed right inside,
And the Governor laughed, “Oh isn’t this fun?”
As he pulled out House Dems, one by one.
And the Speaker cried, “You’re hurting me so!
Please put down your millions and let me go.”
But the Governor laughed with a Ho Ho Ho,
And he said, “I still have 70 to go-
Oops, that’s the wrong one, I confess,
But what’s one House Democrat more or less?”
Then suddenly, the jaws went SNAP,
And the Governor was gone, right off the map,
And where he went one could only guess…
To North or South or East or West…
He left no forwarding address.
But what’s one Governor, more or less?
- Anon - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:27 am:
It’s funny how all of this “too much money in the hands of too few” business is a huge deal with this governor and his friends, but it’s apparently been OK for the last couple of decades with a few union bosses and trial lawyers controlled the millions behind Madigan and his consistent majorities. For the first time in a long, long time, they may be facing an enemy with the resources to compete in elections - albeit with a legislative map strongly skewed in their favor.
In short, on campaign financing: Cry me a river.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:35 am:
===“too much money in the hands of too few” business is a huge deal with this governor and his friends, but it’s apparently been OK===
A Sun-Times story I forgot to post was that more money was spent in the top three primary races than by all candidates in the 2014 primary.
Things are different. Look around. And stop being such a whiner.
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:36 am:
Perhaps we need to change the analogy we use to describe this situation from WW I to the Old Range Wars.
What we have are the big cattle barons led by Rancher Rauner trying to make things easier for him and his fellow ranchers. The sod farmers who have been putting up fences and making things more expensive for the cattle barons.
Since these folks won’t accede to the barons’ demands to tear down the fences or sell their land, the barons have decided to starve the farmers out by burning their fields. The farmers need John Wayne types to help them fend off this attack on their livelihoods.
What they need to consider is a firebreak. I see that this firebreak has to come at the expense of store owners, Dale’s place, Reggie’s restaurant and Pritchard’s Pie house. These store owners came into being upon the influx of the farmers, but have since been swayed by the cattle barons’ largess and ignored the farmers’ pleas for help.
John Wayne is now advising the farmers that the fire started by the Cattle Barons can best be stopped by a firebreak and the best place for that firebreak is where the stores are. The store owners who could have helped the farmers must now lose their livelihoods to stop the devastating fire started by the Cattle Barons.
Wake up store owners, you came into business serving the large farmer community. Your acquiescence to the cattle barons has jeopardized this community. Help the community or suffer the consequences when the farmers have to respond to this attack.
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:42 am:
Whenever the simpletons use the phrase union bosses, I get a kick out of envisioning my son’s former english teacher as a Boss Tweed caricature type. Get a grip dude, unions represent thousands of people.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:43 am:
Awww . . . were those union bosses oppressing you Anon? I really feel badly for you. Did those big bad union bosses (who by the way have been in steady retreat for a generation) did those big bad bosses make it hard for you to win elections? You’ll be ok. At least they didn’t defund the government in order make sure top corporate tools had unchallenged authority.
Aw . . and those evil trial lawyers. Did those evil people make sure you used that which was yours so as not to harm another? Oh so oppressive. You poor thing.
Let’s get all mad together and destroy the institutions of the state, shall we? That’ll make it all better. That’ll show em. How about we destroy the universities and all those pesky kids with special needs.
You’re such a victim. You deserve free reign to lash out. There there. Let me stroke your poor little forehead and comfort you.
- TD - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:44 am:
FY17 procurement and contracting cycle is revving up. Let’s see if vendors still want to sell to the State after not being paid for FY16. That’s the only hope I see out of the logjam before November.
- Annonin' - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:54 am:
Soeakin’ of forgetin’ to post
How come no one wrote up the tossin’ of the alleged $uper$tar kink from the IDHA board?
Thank goodness it was announced to the BGA
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:57 am:
T.D. What about the state unable to make payments to school districts? Do you think that might also help break the logjam? A district here is talking about a 3 day school week with kids working online from home.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:59 am:
DuPage is exactly right. Once legislators and leaders from both parties realize that they must be adults and cut out the governor with a veto proof budget will we get past this.
- RNUG - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:02 am:
-Norseman-
To follow your analogy, sooner or later the townsmen will realize they need some hired guns … and when that happens, you look around and aren’t too picky … so the “union thugs” will then be welcome.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:09 am:
Not whining at all, Rich. Pointing out the irony of all of the whining on the Dem side these days.
- Facts are Stubborn Things - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:09 am:
I will never understand many of my fellow union members. PQ cam along and actually always made the full pension payment and agreed to a good contract for state workers. He then signed a landmark pension bill that almost all knew (including most who voted for it) the courts would throw out but something needed to get passed to politically move forward. The choice was PQ or BR and so many union voters couldn’t seem to figure that one out. WOW! Of course I first tried to defeat Rauner in the primary by voting for KD, but republicans around the state didn’t think the chief of staff for Edgar would do a very good job, lets get this Rauner to shake things up. WOW! We now have problems, who could have seen it coming?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:22 am:
=== Of course I first tried to defeat Rauner in the primary by voting for KD, but republicans around the state didn’t think the chief of staff for Edgar would do a very good job,===
Rauner did NOT get a majority in the primary, ergo, even with Union intervention in the Primary, most GOP voters, a majority of those voting, weren’t Rauner voters.
===…lets get this Rauner to shake things up. WOW! We now have problems, who could have seen it coming?===
Well, 2 in 5 Union voters voted against their better selves.
Labor is trying to correct the mistake, and doing quite well.
The 2014 race is over. It’s done.
Dwelling on it does ZERO good. Rauner won. “What are you prepared to do?”
Labor answered on Tuesday. That’s all we can do now, answer the call.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:31 am:
@Century Club-”The Speaker’s Toothache”- Nice analogy. Let’s hope all those apples rot one of his teeth SOON!
- olddog - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:41 am:
This has been cited before, but it needs to be repeated. It’s just as true at the state level.
“The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.
“When one party moves this far from the mainstream, it makes it nearly impossible for the political system to deal constructively with the country’s challenges.”
Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein, “Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem” Washington Post, April 27, 2012
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lets-just-say-it-the-republicans-are-the-problem/2012/04/27/gIQAxCVUlT_story.html
- walker - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:41 am:
Norseman +2
We’ll know the world has righted itself on its axis, when significant number of small business owners move off of Rauner. It would be in their best interests to do so.
- burbanite - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:42 am:
Nice job Century Club!
- Brutus - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 12:15 pm:
If public universities don’t get any money until after the election, several will have folded, and the survivors, even U of I, will be degraded. Many students will head elsewhere, others, lacking decent local options, simply won’t be able to attend college, and we’ll be left with a handful of struggling regional universities and a flagship that’s decidedly inferior to those of our neighbors.
We’re risking a lost generation of potential college graduates (lost to other states, or lost to college altogether) and irreparable damage to our universities. I’d like to think even Rauner doesn’t want that.
For how many elections have we heard “wait until after the next election, and then perhaps we’ll see some governing”?
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 3:56 pm:
Honeybear, are you saying AFSCME is preparing OODA Loops for Rauner? Yes.
The folks got it for the last primary and I’m glad you’re not pausing the effort to deal with this disastrous governor.
Willy’s vote accordingly mantra needs to be heard load and clear throughout the state. Especially in the public university communities. Activists in those communities need to bang the drums loud and hard NOW alerting folks that their communities are being harmed by Rauner and the GOP legislators enabling him.
Good luck to all.
- Mama - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 4:09 pm:
I have a feeling Rauner will force the union to strike before the November election.
- Wensicia - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 4:33 pm:
==I’d like to think even Rauner doesn’t want that.==
It’s exactly what he wants.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 6:23 pm:
- Norseman - and - Honeybear -
I hope you recognized when I quoted Ben Bradlee in “All the President’s Men”…
“Rest up… 15 minutes… ”
The July 1st thought is understanding the overall push, from March 16th to June 30th, gets into the Campaign Phase of “Vote Accordingly” gets ramped up by a factor of 10.
Working smart now and ratcheting up, like a crescendo, starting to rise and ramp up and hitting the high note in November… “Voting Accordingly”… and duplicating March 15th.
So understand… “Rest up… 15 minutes”.
Those 15 minutes were up days ago.
Keep at it - Honeybear -… OW