1) A belated and very hearty thanks to Barton Lorimor and Scott Kennedy for doing such a great job here on election night. Nobody else had results faster, and nobody did it better and it was mainly because of those two talented men.
* The Senate passed an appropriations bill today on party lines that the governor does not like, to say the least. From Gov. Rauner’s office…
“Senate Democrats today admitted that this bill would do nothing to help higher education, MAP students or social services because there is no money to pay for it. Rather than adding billions to our debt and risk further delaying payments to social service providers, the General Assembly needs to stay in Springfield and negotiate a balanced budget alongside structural reforms that create jobs and grow our economy.”
They aren’t staying. Spring break has sprung. And considering the dueling press releases from yesterday, no negotiations are gonna happen for a while anyway.
* We’ll let Sen. Gary Forby’s press release stand for the Democrats…
Southern Illinois University and other state universities would finally get state support and potentially scale back program cuts and layoffs thanks to legislation Senator Gary Forby (D-Benton) supported Thursday in the Illinois Senate.
Forby helped the Senate approve legislation that includes $185 million in support for SIU. The vote comes just days after university leaders warned lawmakers that deep cuts and layoffs were coming because the state had stopped supporting state schools.
“State schools deserve state support,” Forby said. “SIU is the economic engine of our region. We must work hard to keep this institution open and keep jobs in Southern Illinois. The fact that more than 300 faculty and administrative professionals could be laid off is outrageous.”
The proposal Forby supported also cements an Amtrak deal to keep trains running through Carbondale and elsewhere in the state.
Gov. Rauner and state transportation officials announced a deal with Amtrak in February. However, because the governor last year vetoed the budget that includes Amtrak funding, he had no spending authority to honor that contract. The legislation Forby helped pass gives the governor the authority to honor that contract.
“Amtrak is a vital transportation option. Thousands of SIU students and staff rely on it along with tourists coming to enjoy all Southern Illinois has to offer. I’m glad the governor abandoned his efforts to slash Amtrak service and will now have the ability to back up the contract he signed,” said Forby.
The measure, Senate Bill 2059, passed the Senate with a vote of 39 to 18 and will now go to the House for consideration.
…Adding… OK, I think Sen. Daniel Biss’ press release does a better job of countering the governor’s position, so here it is…
Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Evanston) joined Democratic lawmakers Thursday in offering the Rauner administration guidance on spending priorities by voting for an appropriations bill that authorizes payments for the state’s human service providers, universities and more as the budget impasse drags on.
“Right now 90 percent of Illinois government is moving along on autopilot because of court orders and consent decrees. The other 10 percent is on the verge of shutting down. That 10 percent is just as vital as the other 90 percent,” Biss said.
The Senate approved legislation Thursday that authorizes Gov. Bruce Rauner to meet the state’s contractual obligations with human service providers and Amtrak rail service, pay for universities and colleges, and put money toward libraries, rape crisis centers, autism programs, homelessness, after-school programs, school construction grants, job training, mental health services, medical screenings and research, local tourism and more.
As Gov. Rauner’s impasse with the Legislature over a state budget continues, human service providers statewide are closing their doors because the state has not paid them since July. The same is true for public universities around the state.
“What’s being allowed to happen in Illinois is completely irrational and patently unfair. We need a spending plan, we need to hammer out a way to pay for it and we need to do what’s right for Illinois before it’s too late to recover,” Biss said.
Thursday, Mar 17, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
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The problem is anti-tax zealots continually bombard the media with red herrings designed to sway public opinion against supporting the tax increases which the evidence indicates Illinois sorely needs. One of the most common canards is the ever-popular claim that higher tax rates kill jobs and the economy. Great rhetoric, that. It just doesn’t survive scrutiny. Consider that major, peer-reviewed studies by the Small Business Association, Congressional Budget Office, University of Missouri and the right-leaning CATO Institute and Kaufman Foundation for Entrepreneurship all found no statistically meaningful correlation between tax policy on the one hand and job/economic growth on the other. More recently, Kansas cut taxes and saw its economy nosedive, while California and Minnesota increased taxes and saw strong economic growth.
Then there’s the increasingly popular claim — also false — that the temporary tax increases of 2011 prompted Illinoisans to flee — running off to “business friendly” states like Indiana. After reviewing the data, however, a recent report by KDM Consulting found these claims simply didn’t hold water. Indeed, net out-migration is nothing new in Illinois — occurring every year but one since 1925, while Illinois’ net out-migration rate actually fell in 2011, the first year of the temporary tax increase.
Yes, more people move from Illinois to Indiana than the other way around, because Illinois has more people than Indiana. However, a greater proportion of Indiana’s population moves to Illinois than vice versa. Same holds true for Gov. Scott Walker’s Wisconsin, by the way. Which means the contention that Illinois’ temporary tax increases caused people to leave in droves is just so much malarkey.
* Illinois’ out-migration is nothing new. The state has seen net out-migration every year but one since 1925.
* Illinois’ out-migration is overstated if international migration is ignored. Otherwise migrants from other countries are not counted when they move to Illinois, but are counted when they move out of Illinois to other parts of the country. Including international migration reduces net migration out of Illinois by one-third.
* Both in-migration and out-migration are tied to the economic cycle. People move when times are good and sit tight when they are bad. The 2011 income tax rate increases came as Illinois was moving out of recession, and migration could have been expected to increase.
* Illinois’ migration pattern is similar to those of its neighboring states. Illinoisans tend to move to the same states as do residents of Indiana and Wisconsin.
* Many migrants don’t move far. Illinois’ largest out-migration is to Indiana. Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s largest out-migration is to Illinois.
* Illinois is a large state so out-migration in absolute numbers is large. However, a larger percentage of both Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s population moves to Illinois than vice versa.
* Out-migration from Illinois to Indiana and Wisconsin has declined.
* Illinois net out-migration rates fell in 2011, the first year of the income tax rate increase, but increased significantly in 2014.
Just to set the record straight, Ralph Martire certainly doesn’t capture the views of Cato Institute scholars in his commentary on tax policy.
Many factors determine a state’s economic vitality, to be sure, so it would be foolish to claim that taxes are the only thing that matters. However, it would be equally foolish to claim that taxes don’t matter. There is a wealth of academic literature showing, on the margin, that higher tax burdens and higher tax rates lead to less income growth, less job growth, and reduced competitiveness at the state level.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel can breathe a little easier. But he’s still walking through a minefield.
Emanuel, of course, was virtually invisible this election cycle. He didn’t have much of a choice, given the continuing uproar over his handling of the Laquan McDonald matter. That issue is what led to yesterday’s defeat of State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez, and remains highly salient. The mayor had best not forget that reality for one second.
On the other hand, presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders spent millions of dollars trying to wrap Emanuel right around Hillary Clinton’s neck. In very personal terms, he went after not only McDonald but city tax and school policies, declaring that he didn’t want Emanuel’s support in November.
Well, guess what? Clinton carried the city 54 percent to 45 percent, roughly 55,000 votes, winning majority white and majority African-American wards alike. And an effort funded by the Illinois Chamber of Commerce to oust Dunkin by tying his foe to Emanuel equally flopped.
Ergo, Emanuel clearly is damaged goods. But he’s in recovery mode. No one is going to force him out of office. Now he has three years left in his term to build back up.
* The Question: Do you more agree or more disagree with these observations? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
Thursday, Mar 17, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
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Meanwhile, the political games continued at the Capitol, with Senate Democrats on Wednesday giving initial approval to legislation that would free up nearly $4 billion for everything from higher education to rape crisis centers. Rauner has threatened to veto the measure, saying there’s no money to pay for it, an argument his budget office repeated in a memo to lawmakers.
It largely mirrors a bill approved by the House earlier this month. However, the Senate said it added some things, like the library grants and Amtrak expenses, that were excluded from the House version.
“It does not come with additional revenue,” said Sen. Heather Steans, D-Chicago, the committee chair.
Instead, the bill provides agencies with authority to spend money in certain areas that they do not now have. […]
Senate Democrats said most of the programs are not covered by the various court orders that have helped keep 90 percent of state spending going out the door. They said the state has already entered into contracts with organizations to provide the services, but has no way to pay them because a budget has not been approved.
* From the governor’s budget director…
To: Members of the Illinois Senate
From: Tim Nuding, Director, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget Date: March 16, 2016
Re: Senate Bill 2059
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget opposes Senate Floor Amendment 1 to Senate Bill 2059 because it represents yet another proposal to spend billions of dollars without any way to pay for it. The bill appropriates approximately $3.9 billion, of which $3.1 billion is appropriated from General Funds.
The spending identified in this bill is not affordable because the legislature has already spent all available funds on other priorities. Furthermore, there are no corresponding proposals to reform government programs, to reduce other spending or to free up resources to fund this bill within existing resources.
Today, the Comptroller’s Office reports a backlog of bills totaling $7.6 billion, with over 50,000 unpaid vouchers on hand. Vendors who have already provided services to the state continue to wait months to get paid.
Regrettably, Senate Floor Amendment 1 to Senate Bill 2059 is another in a long line of political documents that make promises that knowingly cannot be kept. For these reasons this bill could be viewed as a political document designed to generate roll calls for political purposes.
Voting for this bill adds to the state’s debt, causes those who are already waiting for state payments to wait even longer and potentially jeopardizes payments to the pension systems and General State Aid payments for school districts.
Unfortunately, this bill is a cruel hoax on those it is purportedly designed to help.
Reasonable proposals exist in the legislature that would free up resources to afford much of this spending, including procurement reforms and pension reforms as well as proposals to allow the Governor to reduce spending in other areas to make this spending affordable.
If you’ll recall, the threat of a mutiny by some GOP House members is what caused Rauner to cave and release the local government hostages.
It’s amazing to me that GOP House members don’t realize how much power they have right now. They could dictate budget terms to both Rauner and the Dems.
The same goes for some Senate Republicans, but the House GOP has been the most insistent about releasing some of the impasse hostages, and not just the local government units, either.
“On Wednesday morning, the intensity in Springfield is going to get a lot higher,” said House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, Republican of Western Springs.
“It’s been a rough environment and it won’t get any easier,” Durkin said. “We must win seats. Last year the Democrats proposed a budget deal that was $4 billion in the red, and they play the victims in this. It’s ridiculous. But this is a critical election.”
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner suffered some high-profile election defeats, but his allies on Wednesday pointed to a number of smaller victories as proof he can flex his political muscle — a signal that little is likely to change in his battle with Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan for control of state government.
With both sides claiming wins in Tuesday’s primary, there’s not much incentive for Rauner to back off his pro-business, union-weakening agenda, or for Democrats aligned with labor to drop their fierce opposition to it. And so there remains no resolution in sight to the record-breaking budget stalemate that’s cut services for the poor, led to mass layoffs at public universities and sent the state’s debt soaring.
Sen. Matt Murphy, R-Palatine, said the real takeaway from the results should be that Rauner is able to protect Republicans who have his back.
“To me, the most important thing is every Republican that he said he was going to help and protect, won,” Murphy said. “So if you are a Republican sitting there wondering if the governor can successfully have your back, so far his record on that is perfect.”
Amid the spectacular collapse of efforts to defeat State Senator Sam McCann (R-Plainview) and to defend State Rep. Ken Dunkin (D-Chicago) by Governor Bruce Rauner and his top political allies, a third Rauner-backed legislative candidate also fell on Tuesday night.
While all the insider political chatter on Wednesday has been focused on McCann and Dunkin, the thumping loss of Republican Mike DeSutter, who sought the House seat being vacated by State Rep. Don Moffit (R-Galesburg), went largely went unnoticed.
DeSutter of Woodhull, who had been backed by Dan Proft‘s Liberty Principles PAC and which had spent $51,719 in TV ads in DeSutter’s behalf, got clobbered by Dan Swanson of Alpha, 34.6%-48.9%. A third candidate, Knox County GOP Chairman Wayne Saline, took 16.5%.
DeSutter’s allies clearly saw polling data that showed trouble on the horizon because in the race’s last 10 days $31,900 flowed into DeSutter’s campaign coffers, including $5,000 from Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC and $5,400 from wealthy conservative activist Dick Uihlein of Lake Forest. […]
Meanwhile, Swanson, a 17-year veteran of the AlWood School Board from 1992-2009 and a former Henry County Board member, raised only a piddly $15,000 for the race, according to state election board records […]
No labor money was among the entirely local contributions that largely came from family or friends.
For McCann, the pressure came from constituents in a district heavily populated with unionized state employees. But virtually every Republican in the legislature has some issue that makes him or her especially vulnerable to pressure from back home.
For example, Republicans whose districts include state universities will be in a tough spot in November if no state funding has arrived. To this point, all House and Senate Republicans have stood firm with Rauner and voted against Democrat-sponsored bills that would have brought instant relief to college campuses while compounding the state’s horrid long-term fiscal trouble.
Now that they’ve seen that even a $3 million blitz couldn’t unseat McCann for his union bill sin, will these members stay loyal to Rauner with a general election on the line? With each passing week without a budget, the situation at the universities becomes more dire and, by extension, the constituent pressure increases. […]
On a related note, Rauner may want to stop invoking all those unnamed Democrats he says would love to side with him but are too afraid of Madigan to do so. The lone Democrat who crossed over to the Rauner camp, Rep. Ken Dunkin of Chicago, was routed Tuesday night by Juliana Stratton, the primary challenger Madigan had backed. Even with $4.2 million in protection money from Rauner allies, the seven-term incumbent Dunkin was defeated by a margin of more than 2-to-1.
Agreed.
* Related…
* Gov. Rauner an Election Day loser, observers say: “Sam McCann won fair and square,” Proft said via email. “I congratulate him. But I wouldn’t read too much into his victory. I’m not sure to which ‘wing’ of the party McCann is referring but I can tell you that the big government, public sector union boss-supported philosophy of government McCann has pursued has no future in this party or this state. As should be obvious to all by now, even to McCann, we simply cannot afford it.”
Officials say more than 800 private companies doing work for the Department of Human Services haven’t been paid because of the budget stalemate.
Human Services Secretary James Dimas told a Senate appropriations committee Wednesday the agency owes about $168 million in overdue bills since July 1 — when the budget should have taken effect.
Yep. We’re so much more pro-business now right here in good ol’ Illinois.
* My social media streams have been jam packed with warnings from hardcore conservatives that last Friday’s Chicago protests at Donald Trump’s rally would backfire on the liberals. And lots of liberals appeared to agree that they’re just solidifying Trump’s position.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 61% of Likely U.S. Voters believe there is a greater danger of political violence this election cycle compared to past presidential campaigns. Only nine percent (9%) feel there is less of a danger this campaign season, while 26% say the potential for violence is about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Fifty-two percent (52%) blame Trump’s positions rather than his political opponents for the recent violent protests at some of his rallies. Thirty-one percent (31%) say Trump’s opponents are more to blame. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.
Liberal political activist group MoveOn.org has taken credit for the protests last weekend that forced the cancellation of a Trump rally in Chicago, but 72% of Democrats still blame the Republican front-runner’s positions more than his opponents for the violence at some of his recent rallies. Just 39% of Republicans and 42% of unaffiliated voters agree.
* OK, now look at the crosstabs. Not mentioned in the above narrative is that the 42 percent of independents who agree that the violence is Trump’s fault is actually a plurality. Only 35 percent of indies believe it’s not Trump’s fault and 22 percent have no opinion.
And while a substantial minority of 39 percent of Republicans think the violence is Trump’s fault, only a plurality of 45 percent think it’s not. Another 15 percent have no opinion.
* Women tend to vote in larger numbers than men, and 59 percent of women say the violence is on Trump, while a 44-40 plurality of men say the same thing.
* This kinda got buried under election coverage, but you may remember the memo I posted on Tuesday evening…
Dear Chamber Board Members:
This week, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce, through its special independent expenditure committee, launched a large advertising campaign in Chicago on behalf of a key candidate for state representative, Rep. Ken Dunkin. We believe this is the single most important race in this Primary Election, and perhaps the most important in many election cycles. Rep. Dunkin has shown a willingness to vote against the status quo in Springfield and support a better path forward for our state. He is being vigorously opposed by forces of the status quo.
While Rep. Dunkin was endorsed by the Chamber’s regular political committee, Chamber PAC, this independent expenditure was made through the Chamber’s special independent expenditure committee, which requires strict non-coordination with candidates. The restriction greatly limits our ability to communicate intentions before a campaign is launched. In addition, you should know that is was fully funded by a like-minded organization and NO Chamber dues or other revenues were used to pay for the campaign.
The advertisement we are running is primarily positive about Rep. Dunkin, but does highlight that he is independent from the political powers that be in Chicago. Some of you may have received calls from Chicago Mayor Emmanuel’s representatives complaining about the ad. Given the nature of Chicago politics, we believe this is quite an overreaction. However, we apologize if you feel this has put you in an uncomfortable position. As always, if you have any questions or concerns about this issue, please call me directly at one of the numbers below.
Thanks, and I look forward to seeing everyone next week at the Board meeting on the 17th in Normal.
Todd Maisch
President and CEO
Illinois Chamber of Commerce
Team Emanuel reacted with total fury to the ad, and Maisch in his letter to board members notes that, “Some of you may have received calls from Chicago Mayor Emmanuel’s [sic] representatives complaining…We apologize if you feel that this has put you in an uncomfortable position. […]
One board member, who asked not to be named, told me he did hear from the mayor’s forces and isn’t angry, but said the board “didn’t get the chance to decide if we wanted to be in the middle” of a fight involving Madigan, Emanuel and Gov. Bruce Rauner.
Another said he was “surprised” when he saw the ad on TV, as were “a lot” of other chamber directors. “We look at what we do as a process of addition, not subtraction,” that board member told me. “In situations like this, you may win the battle but lose the war.”
Translation: This guy and his company have to do business in Chicago with a mayor who now is first-class PO’d. […]
It should be interesting to hear why the chamber dropped a cool $1 million on a guy who got blown out 67 percent to 32 percent. And though Maisch’s letter notes that the money for the ad came from another group and involved “NO chamber dues or other revenues,” it might be interesting to hear if the group’s independent-expenditure unit now is effectively for rent to the highest bidder.
Historically, the Illinois Chamber was a more pragmatic group, but it’s always leaned Republican, although perhaps not enough for some of its more strident members. And many of those members are undoubtedly in Gov. Rauner’s corner and don’t really care at all about Chicago’s mayor (or worse, because of his support for things like raising the minimum wage). So I’d be shocked if something happened to Maisch beyond a light hand slap.
* But there are real problems here. The TV ad ripped into Emanuel, undoubtedly at Gov. Rauner’s behest. Emanuel, for good reason, is constantly criticized for being too cozy with big business interests and Dunkin has had a very poor Chamber voting record.
So for a business group to whack a more often than not ally like Emanuel when he’s already down with a million dollar TV ad, only to end up participating in a spectacularly humiliating defeat on behalf of a not pro-business legislator seems imprudent, at best.
Love him or not (and most, understandably, have no love for Rahm) this just wasn’t a particularly bright move, particularly since Chamber members regularly ask for help from the Hall.
Rauner and his folks can be mightily persuasive, and the governor can also do a lot for business interests, but a polite “Thanks, but we have to pass” probably would’ve been the smarter play.
