You reap what you sow
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Donald Trump better hope he doesn’t fall three delegates shy of winning the Republican nomination because his Illinois supporters apparently don’t love foreign-sounding names…
In the western Chicago suburbs, a Trump delegate candidate named Nabi Fakroddin received 14 percent fewer votes than a member of the same Trump slate named Paul Minch. In southern Illinois, a would-be Trump delegate named Raja Sadiq received an eye-popping 25 percent fewer votes than a slate-mate named Doug Hartmann. And in a rural western Illinois district, a losing Trump delegate named Jim Uribe received 11 percent fewer votes than one named Rich Nordstrom.
In all three cases, the disparity appeared to cost Trump a delegate.
Oops.
Former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady, a Kasich delegate, finished ahead of Nabi Fakroddin, by the way.
* This wasn’t an isolated incident here, either…
* Nancy Kimme also won a Kasich delegate slot yesterday. Kimme, you will recall, was the winner of our 2014 Golden Horseshoe Award for Best Statehouse Insider and won our 2015 Golden Horseshoe Award for Best Contract Lobbyist. I chuckled to myself last night when I thought about her being in one of those smoke-filled rooms cutting a deal on who the nominee will be. Nobody I know in the GOP is better suited for an environment like that than her. Nobody.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From yesterday…
* The Question: Future govrauner Snapchat posts?
Keep it clean, people.
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* From the governor’s office…
Hi, Rich:
Please attribute the following to Lance:
There were many races last night where special interests backed by Speaker Madigan failed to defeat Republican incumbents and candidates who support Governor Rauner’s call for structural reforms that grow our economy alongside a balanced budget. Even in a Democratic primary, the Speaker needed to call in the President of the United States to defeat one legislator who dared to show a hint of independent thinking. But the primary elections are over and rather than issuing partisan press releases, the Speaker needs to end his month long vacation and begin working with the Governor to enact a balanced budget alongside structural reforms that grow our economy.
Thanks,
ck
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#Winning!
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Monday Tribune column entitled: “Tuesday: A referendum on Gov. Rauner”…
This election cycle, Madigan is testing another strategy. He is attacking Democrats he doesn’t like by linking them to his chief adversary, Gov. Bruce Rauner. In a handful of races, Madigan is trying to keep reform-minded Democrats from winning by calling them sellouts to Republicans. It’s not true, of course, but it’s an effective message at a time when Rauner is largely being blamed for state budget cuts.
In doing so, Madigan is framing this election as a referendum on Rauner. He has amped up the significance of Tuesday’s primary because Rauner’s leverage is on the line. If Rauner doesn’t beat Madigan in a few key races, the freshman governor’s influence, his agenda and his party will lose credibility at a time when they’re already struggling to be relevant.
Outside Chicago, in more conservative-leaning districts, Rauner remains popular and supported. His agenda is welcomed in Downstate communities that have emptied out, in part due to the state’s poor fiscal shape. I say that, having interviewed just about every candidate running for a seat in the General Assembly. Distaste for Madigan, Chicago and Democratic policies is palpable.
But in the city and suburbs, Rauner’s support is porous. Gridlock over the state budget is wearing out the fringes of his base. Tuesday will indicate how much.
I think we got the answer.
* Meanwhile, a Springfield resident explains her vote for Sen. Sam McCann…
[L. Gay Davidson, 62, a computer consultant and retired state worker] said she doesn’t want Rauner to “think he can control” lawmakers. She said she ran into Rauner at a hockey game, and he told her to tell House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, about her complaints about the state budget.
“I blame them both, but Madigan’s been in for a very long time, and we’ve always had budgets,” Davidson said, adding that she thinks Rauner is “holding it (the budget) hostage” to his agenda.
This “we always had a budget until Rauner showed up” claim is a topic that is rarely, if ever, mentioned in mainstream media. Perhaps the governor’s two high-profile and downright humiliating primary losses yesterday will prompt more critical coverage. When reporters smell blood in the water, bad things start to happen.
Even so, some folks have flatly stated that the impasse is a good thing. Illinois really needs this battle to finally turn the state toward a new direction.
My own opinion, stated quite often, is that the governor needs to find another way out of this mess. He’s the governor, he’s supposed to be the one in charge.
Stop pointing fingers, quit the constant whining about your impotence and get something done already.
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Madigan claims “clear message sent by voters”
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Steve Brown…
Speaker Michael J. Madigan issued the following statement after Tuesday’s election results:
“Yesterday, voters in the Democratic primary election made it very clear they want representatives in the State Capitol who will stand up for middle-class families, children and the elderly, not turn their backs on them. I’m honored to have again received the trust and support of the voters of the 22nd District, where they rejected a candidate who received his financial support from a number of Republicans and those aligned with the governor’s belief in how government should be run.
“Voters in the 5th Representative District clearly were unhappy with Ken Dunkin’s record, how he turned his back on the elderly, children and families struggling to make ends meet, his failure to follow through on promises he made, and his association with Bruce Rauner and the governor’s allies. Also, a message was sent that spending more money does not translate into electoral success. The millions spent by Ken Dunkin, IllinoisGO, the Illinois Opportunity Project and others – an effort that significantly outspent the Stratton campaign – did not persuade voters because their views do not reflect the views of middle-class and struggling families.
“As Speaker, I have consistently and successfully worked with Republican governors to find common ground on issues important to moving the state forward. I am prepared, as I have been for the last year, to work cooperatively and professionally with Governor Rauner to address the most important issues facing our state today. However, the gridlock that we are experiencing stems not from a difference in political parties, but from the governor’s insistence that we focus on his agenda attacking middle-class families, rather than making the budget deficit his priority. Over the last year, you will find the times that the governor and the Legislature were able to work together, such as the passage of a measure to free up billions of dollars in federal funds and rejecting cost of living adjustments for lawmakers, is when the governor was willing to put aside his agenda that hurts middle-class families and work directly with the Legislature on the most important issue at hand.
“With the clear message sent by voters Tuesday, I am hopeful we can use this framework moving forward to implement a state budget and work together to get things accomplished for the people we serve.”
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Our sorry state
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Oy…
Been in accident with a state-owned vehicle and not at fault? Waiting for the state to pony up?
Keep waiting.
The state, which is self-insured, has about 200 claims worth about $560,000 on hold, said Meredith Krantz, a spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Central Management Services.
Those claims, filed since July 1, aren’t being paid because there’s no state budget.
One Springfield lawyer said he found the situation “pathetic.”
“The way I take this: If a state employee runs into your car and damages a fender or a bumper or whatever, the state isn’t paying that now,” said attorney Jim Ackerman, whose work includes auto liability cases.
“And if they run over your mother and kill her, the state isn’t going to pay that for quite some time,” he said.
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This year’s ROI
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* $4,165,838 was raised/spent on behalf of Rep. Ken Dunkin, who received 8,804 votes yesterday. That’s $473 per vote. The winner of that race, Juliana Stratton, spent $125 per vote.
* Republican Senate candidate Bryce Benton received 19,026 votes. $3,183,904 was raised and/or spent on his behalf. That’s $167 per vote. Winning candidate Sen. Sam McCann spent $40.69 per vote.
* Jason Gonzales raised/spent $1,004,784 to get 6,594 votes, or about $152 per vote. Because Speaker Madigan’s campaign committees also contribute heavily to other candidates, it’s unknown right now how much he spent on his race.
The fall election could make this look like pennies.
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Sen. Duffy to step down
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Word has gone around for a bit now that he’s been looking for a new job…
State Sen. Dan Duffy, a Lake Barrington Republican, will step down to lead Prevent Child Abuse America in April before his term ends.
Duffy didn’t run for re-election to the Illinois Senate and his term would expire in January.
His preferred candidate, Dan McConchie of Hawthorn Woods, has likely prevailed in Tuesday’s Republican primary to replace Duffy. McConchie holds a 651 vote lead over Casey Urlacher with 85 percent of precincts reporting this morning.
* Related…
* McConchie holds narrow lead in tight 26th District race
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* An interesting move…
Hi Rich.
Now that the primary is over, it’s a good time to remind people that despite the fact that there was (and will continue to be) a never-ending stream of money available to win (and lose) elections, the same cannot be said when it comes to funds available to ensure Illinois children, families and communities have the tools they need to thrive.
While attention has been diverted to elections, the normal budgeting process has geared up, and appropriations committees in both the House and Senate have started hearing testimony on the governor’s proposed budget and agency requests for FY17. And of course, that is occurring against the backdrop of a budgetless FY16.
As it does every year, Voices is submitting testimony. The governor and agencies have, in some cases, proposed increases in line items that would have a significant positive impact on children and families. This year, we are not unconditionally supporting increases in spending for line-items we traditionally care about - a move that would be absurd in a normal year.
But, as we said in our testimony submitted today to the Senate Approps I committee, as an advocacy organization for children, it is extremely difficult for us to advocate for more funding for one priority if it comes at the expense of another. The truth is that our state continues to fail our kids, as the ongoing budget crisis erodes our ability to give them the opportunity that they require to be successful students, skilled employees, taxpayers, and productive citizens.
Now that the election is over, maybe lawmakers and the governor can take a beat and consider that when they express a desire to fund vital programs, like human services, PK-12 and higher education, they must also consider how they will pay for those programs.
Emily Miller
Voices for Illinois Children
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The agony of defeat
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Favorite headline of the day, with bonus quote from the defeated candidate…
* After Staple Gun Attack, Zwolinski Loses To Soto By Landslide: Conceding to Soto, Zwolinski said via text message: “The community has to unfortunately wait two more years for real change and not a just puppet for the machine. It’s a shame because we all suffer. But time flies.”
The staple gun obviously missed his frontal lobes.
* Apparently, David Gergen’s endorsement is worth nothing in the 22nd House District…
* No bitterness here…
“I know I have been criticized that I wasn’t a very good politician, and that is probably right,” [Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez] said. “But I am very damn proud of the fact that I am a good prosecutor.”
She vowed to serve her remaining months “with professionalism and integrity.”
* In denial until the end…
He denied that bucking Madigan had cost the Democrats any key votes in Springfield or that doing so had attracted conservative funders to his campaign.
“This was people looking at me historically and wanting to invest in me,” Dunkin said.
He said he planned to remain active, whether in politics or business, but was focused now on finishing out his term and helping Stratton transition into the role of legislator if she wins the General Election.
The mood was somber at Dunkin’s election night party at Norman’s Bistro, 1001 E. 43rd St., as early election results came in showing Stratton leading Dunkin.
A buffet sat untouched and the coat rack was empty as the few supporters there watched in the back bar.
Campaign staff were still unsure where Dunkin was or when he would arrive as media outnumbered campaign workers waiting for results in the hotly contested race.
* Also…
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* Some interesting responses to the Republican exit polling in Illinois yesterday…
* “Do you feel betrayed by Republican politicians?” 51% said yes, 41% said no (Trump carried both categories with 37 and 43 percent, respectively).
* Illegal immigrants working in the US should be: 56 percent chose “Offered legal status,” 40 percent chose “Deported to home country” (Trump won 56 percent of those who want them deported).
* Temporary ban on Muslims entering the US: 68 percent support it (Trump won 48 percent of those) and 28 percent oppose it (Kasich won 36 percent of those).
* 34 percent of all Republicans said they would not vote for Donald Trump if he wins the nomination (including 42 percent of Cruz voters and 38 percent of Kasich voters). 28 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for Ted Cruz if he’s nominated (including 51 percent of Trump voters and 34 percent of Kasich voters). And 25 percent of Republicans said they wouldn’t vote for John Kasich if he’s nominated (including 60 percent of Trump voters and 30 percent of Cruz voters).
* 43 percent of Republicans said they’d “consider a third party” if Trump is nominated.
* 51 percent of Republican voters said that Donald Trump is not honest or trustworthy (41 percent said the same of Cruz and 23 percent said that of Kasich).
* Of the 38 percent who believe the top candidate quality is “shares my values,” just 14 percent said that of Trump.
Discuss.
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Unprecedented GOP turnout
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* There was an historic Republican turnout yesterday, and Democrats nearly matched their huge numbers from 2008. This may help explain the numerous ballot shortage troubles throughout the state.
According to unofficial tallies, 1,377,341 voters cast ballots for Republican presidential candidates. That’s a 48 percent increase over the 933,454 people who voted for GOP presidential candidates in 2012, and a 53 percent increase over the 899,422 who voted Republican in 2008.
Wow.
* Meanwhile, 1,971,059 Democrats voted for president yesterday, well above the 652,717 who took part in the uncontested race in 2012, and just below the historic high of 2,038,614 in 2008.
Not bad, but those Republican numbers cannot be ignored.
* And in Chicago, 84,948 Republican ballots were cast, compared to 47,896 four years ago. That’s way up, but because of increased Democratic turnout this year, the GOP share was 11 percent, compared to 15 percent four years ago. Go back to 2008, however, and the total GOP share was 6.4 percent. So, despite a really good turnout year for Democrats this time around, the Republicans greatly improved both their numbers and (compared to ‘08) their percentages.
* In suburban Cook, the Republicans cast 218,850 votes yesterday, for 32 percent of the total. That’s way down from their 49 percent in 2012, but way up from the 23 percent in 2008.
* Also, Chicago clearly put Hillary Clinton over the top yesterday. She beat Bernie Sanders by 55,040 in the city, but her statewide margin was just 34,605. Sanders closed the gap hard, but using Rahm Emanuel as a whipping post ultimately didn’t work, despite all the gleeful chatter from the chattering class on Monday.
* The New York Times has some fascinating maps to help you delve deeper. Click here. CNN’s exit polling is here and here. We’ll talk more about all that later.
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Surprise!
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Yesterday I asked you to predict the biggest surprise of primary day. Today, I’d like to know what surprised you most about yesterday.
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