Let’s get ready to Trumple!
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* CNN teased this yesterday…
Allies of two GOP governors, Rick Scott of Florida and Bruce Rauner of Illinois, are said to be curious about how an open convention would work.
* Greg Hinz fleshes it out a bit today…
The increasingly bitter national fight over the loyalty of delegates to this summer’s Republican National Convention is showing signs of spreading to Illinois, which will select 12 at-large delegates and 12 at-large alternate delegates that the Donald Trump campaign would like to consider theirs. […]
In position to make the final call is Gov. Bruce Rauner, who is expected to not only attend the convention but chair Illinois’ delegation as the effective head of he state Republican Party. Stuck in the middle is Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., who normally would be expected to attend the convention, too, but, as an elected at-large delegate would be bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot.
In the March primary, Trump won 37 of the delegates selected at the congressional district level, compared to nine for Cruz and six for Ohio Gov. John Kasich. They technically are bound to Trump only for the first ballot, but were hand-picked by the Trump organization and generally are considered loyal.
Not necessarily so are the 12 at-large delegates and 12 at-large alternates who will be selected at the state party convention in Peoria on May 20-21. The delegates to the state convention, in turn, will be selected at potentially contentious county conventions over the next month. […]
State party Chairman Tim Schneider, who was installed in his job by Rauner, says he’s “hoping” to avoid the sort of nasty fights that have occurred in other states. Specifically, a committee headed by former state GOP Chairman Jack Dorgan will nominate a slate of candidates that likely includes some who will back Trump, as well as some who support Cruz or Kasich.
Hoo boy. What a sticky wicket.
* I have generally avoided national party conventions over the years (I went to one when it was in Chicago). But I do believe I’m gonna attend this one, although wearing a press badge might not be the safest thing to do. Then again, being a delegate might not be all that safe, either…
More than three months before any ballots have been cast at the Republican convention, Roger Stone, Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again consigliere, has delivered the campaign equivalent of a severed horse head to delegates who might consider denying Trump the nomination. Trump’s supporters will find you in your sleep, he merrily informed them this week. He did not mean it metaphorically.
“We will disclose the hotels and the room numbers of those delegates who are directly involved in the steal,” Stone said Monday, on Freedomain Radio. “If you’re from Pennsylvania, we’ll tell you who the culprits are. We urge you to visit their hotel and find them. You have a right to discuss this, if you voted in the Pennsylvania primary, for example, and your votes are being disallowed,” Stone said.
The Trump campaign later disavowed those statements.
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Mushrooms sprout green shoots
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Subscribers were told about this earlier today…
Rank-and-file Illinois lawmakers frustrated by the 10-month state budget impasse are meeting on their own in bipartisan groups to discuss potential solutions.
Some of those legislators spoke Monday in Chicago during a forum on the budget hosted by The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform.
State Reps. William Davis, a Homewood Democrat, and Republican Robert Pritchard of Hinckley say they recently attended a lawmaker gathering in suburban Chicago to discuss tactics. They declined to discuss specific proposals, saying they’re in the initial phases. The goal is to present plans to legislative leaders in hopes of resolving the stalemate between Democratic legislative leaders and Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, who haven’t met in months.
Things are starting to happen again and we might see results pretty quickly. You’ll recall that Gov. Rauner shut down a similar process last year because it didn’t produce enough results for him and, to a lesser extent, because he was angry that the process became public. But times are changing.
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This Is Illinois
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lead is shaping up as the big water quality issue…
An Associated Press analysis of Environmental Protection Agency data found that nearly 1,400 water systems serving 3.6 million Americans exceeded the federal lead standard at least once between Jan. 1, 2013, and Sept. 30, 2015. The affected systems are large and small, public and private, and include 278 systems that are owned and operated by schools and day care centers in 41 states. […]
In Galesburg, a community of 31,000 about 200 miles southwest of Chicago, lead levels have exceeded the federal standard in 22 out of 30 testing periods since 1992. City officials say their ground water and water mains are lead-free, but the toxin enters the supply in service lines that deliver water from the streets to 4,700 homes. Lead-based plumbing fixtures that were common in homes built before 1980 also contribute.
The city discovered its most recent problem last fall, when 7 out of 40 samples came back at unacceptable levels. The city followed EPA guidelines by informing residents of the situation two months later. Its notice said that a chemical added to the water since 1993 has been effective in reducing the lead levels and resulted in “lead compliance since 2010,” a misleading statement since no testing was required in 2013 and 2014.
The notice added that recent testing showed the standard had been exceeded “by a narrow margin.” In reality, lead levels were 1.5 times the standard.
* News Gazette…
According to data from the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, tap water in the Champaign County village [of Sydney] has exceeded the national “action level” for lead three times since 2010. […]
There is no safe level for lead exposure — especially for young children, who could suffer behavioral and learning disabilities from the neurotoxin.
* The state EPA is taking some action…
Following the crisis in Flint, Michigan, Illinois regulators want to increase their speed when it comes to notifying water customers of systems that exceed the federal lead standard.
The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and the Illinois Department of Public Health have decided on a 10-day deadline to let customers know about the lead violations.
That is significantly quicker than the federal standard that states homeowners must be notified within 30 days.
Good for them. That 30-day notice requirement is way too long.
* But, Illinois being Illinois, one hand at the IEPA wants action while the other hand at the IEPA is cutting off funding…
A university water-system operator training program is on the chopping block due to a lack of federal student loan money and state funding, even as headlines about the disastrous effects of negligent water system operators continue to appear daily.
The Environmental Resources Training Center at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville is one of the few of its kind in the nation. The year-long program certifies personnel in the operation, maintenance and management of drinking water and wastewater treatment systems for work in Illinois and Missouri. […]
With or without loans, the program may have to be scrapped altogether if the state’s budget impasse is not solved. Gov. Bruce Rauner has not released funds to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, which takes money from the U.S. EPA and gives it to the program for operating costs. The funds are mostly used for salaries.
Thus, the program will not receive the “hundreds of thousands of dollars” it is owed by the agency until the governor releases the funds, supposedly when the budget impasse comes to an end, said Marci Webb, program office manager. […]
“This program trains water operators who could help solve some of those problems you’ve seen up in Flint and Chatham,” he noted in reference to disastrous effects of lead-poisoned water in Flint, Michigan, and a new treatment plant in Chatham, Illinois, that has left residents questioning the village’s water quality.
Ugh.
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More like this, please
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (IDFPR) and the Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) are pleased to announce a new initiative that streamlines the professional licensing process for men and women who are being released from prison.
Starting immediately, offenders who’ve completed the required coursework for Barbering and Cosmetology will be able to apply for their professional license and meet with the licensing board via video conference up to six months before their release or parole date. This common sense policy change reverses the previous approach, which prohibited offenders from starting the application process until they were already released from the institution.
“By creating a pathway towards licensure while still in the institutional setting, we are able to provide near immediate opportunity for individuals exiting prison,” said Bryan A. Schneider, IDFPR Secretary. “We believe this regulatory revision provides real change for those leaving incarceration, while supplying our local economies with able bodied employees at the ready.”
“This is a step in the right direction as we work toward reducing the recidivism rate in Illinois,” said IDOC Acting Director John Baldwin. “When men and women know they’ll be rewarded for their hard work, they are more inclined to participate in programming that will improve their odds of success in the community. This new policy means offenders will be able to join the workforce as soon as they walk out of the correctional center doors.”
This effort is a direct response to the Illinois Criminal Justice and Sentencing Commission’s recommendation to “remove unnecessary barriers to those convicted of crimes from obtaining professional licenses.” It is a small but critical first step in reducing employment barriers for ex-offenders and driving down the prison population in the state of Illinois.
Interviews and b-roll of Cosmetology students at Logan Correctional Center are available on the IDOC Facebook page and on the CMS website at http://www.illinois.gov/cms/agency/media/video/.
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Our sorry state
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* “Customers line up for heroin in the 3700 block of West Grenshaw on June 16, 2015″…
* From the accompanying story…
With about 200 people dying of heroin overdoses each year in Chicago, the police are preparing to launch a radical new strategy to help addicts caught in narcotics investigations on the West Side.
As usual, officers will arrest people caught buying small amounts of heroin and take them to the police station. But officers will now give them the option of entering a drug-treatment program — and not being charged with a crime.
Users with violent criminal backgrounds and those who are “active gang members” will be excluded, police say.
“This is a one-time get-out-of-jail-free card,” said Ruth Coffman, executive director of the University of Chicago Health Lab, which will evaluate the program. […]
About $1 billion of heroin passes through Cook County alone every year, mostly on the West Side, Riccio said. One open-air market at Grenshaw and Independence had hundreds of people standing in line for heroin until police busted the operation last year, he said.
* From IADDA…
In the past five years, the legislature has slashed state funding for addiction prevention, cut addiction treatment by 40% and mental health treatment by nearly 25%.
* From January…
Elgin Residential Rehab and Men’s Residence West are two inpatient treatment homes that will be closing within the next 30 days, leaving those battling addiction to try to find help elsewhere at a time such places are scarce.
Lutheran Social Services of Illinois announced it is closing both programs, among 30 other programs being phased out, because of the state’s inability to pass a budget. […]
A Roosevelt University study titled “Diminishing Capacity: The Heroin Crisis and Illinois Treatment in a National Perspective” found that as heroin use increases, the state is ranked third worst in the nation for providing publicly-funded addiction treatment.
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Unclear on the concept
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mick Dumke…
As Mayor Rahm Emanuel faced growing criticism last fall over the city’s handling of police shootings, Chicago Police Department officials laid plans to have undercover officers spy on protest groups, records obtained by the Chicago Sun-Times show. […]
The undercover police operations last fall stemmed from plans announced by the Black Youth Project, the Workers Center and Southsiders Organized for Unity and Liberation — a coalition of churches and neighborhood groups known as SOUL — to protest the annual conference of the International Association of Chiefs of Police, held Oct. 24-27 at McCormick Place.
Funders for Justice — a nationwide network of philanthropic groups that includes the Ford Foundation, one of the country’s biggest and best-known charitable organizations — posted an announcement of the “counter-conference” on its website. The Funders group had been formed to support discussions of police practices post-Ferguson.
* From the Progress Illinois recap…
A police department spokesman described the probe as “routine” and within the law, adding that it was “documented to ensure transparency with the public.”
“These protective actions — which happen in limited circumstances — are conducted to protect public safety and people’s First Amendment rights,” police spokesman Anthony Guglielmi told the newspaper.
Wait. They’re conducting these operations to “protect” First Amendment rights?
And I’m sure this had nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that the protesters were going to picket a police chiefs meeting.
Yeah. OK.
* From that meeting’s agenda…
Workshop titles include “Pathways to Violent Extremism: Understanding the Radicalization Process and How Best to Prevent Violence in Your Community” and “Use of Force By and Against the Police: Perspectives from the Local, State, and National Level.” […]
There will be a series of talks organized by the Chicago Police Department (CPD) on various themes, including something called “police legitimacy.” Among the CPD workshops is “The Chicago NATO Model: Bringing Order to Disorder While Ensuring First Amendment Rights
* ACLU…
The recent reports about the level and breadth of police monitoring of peaceful protest groups is unsettling and requires a response. Thousands of Chicago residents have joined protests in recent months demanding a more accountable, more transparent policing system in the City, and these protests have been conducted largely in a peaceful, considerate fashion. Rather than being dangerous, it has been inspiring to see so many young people take a leadership role in helping to plan and shape these activities.
The exercise of one’s protected First Amendment rights should not be a catalyst for a police investigation, whether overt or the covert insertion of undercover officers inside an organization. Such spying on peaceful protesters chills speech. The ACLU strongly opposes police officers attending meetings and collecting information on people organizing to exercise their First Amendment rights.
Given Chicago’s bleak history of using undercover officers to investigate and infiltrate peaceful groups simply for opposing policies emanating from City Hall, there must be strong, written guidelines for guarding against abuses in the use of police to investigate these sorts of activities. Washington D.C., for example, has a protective ordinance requiring “reasonable suspicion of a crime” before beginning the kind of investigations described here. Chicago used this standard for decades, but since the dissolution of a long-standing federal consent decree in June 2009, the standard of “a legitimate law enforcement purpose” has guided the CPD’s decisions for whether to spy on political movements. That standard is too low and nebulous, and inevitably leads to the kind of troubling spying reported here.
The ACLU of Illinois urges the Chicago City Council to hold hearings into these investigations as a precursor to considering written, formal guidelines, adopted by the Council that can help assure every person in Chicago that exercising free speech is not a predicate for a criminal investigation.
Instead of spying on churches and other groups, how about using those limited resources to spy on some dangerous criminals? I mean, the city’s so very safe, right?
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Question of the day
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
North Side activists rallied Sunday around legislation they hope will end Illinois’ nearly yearlong budget stalemate and secured commitments from lawmakers at a full-house community convention in Lake View.
ONE Northside is pursuing legislation in Springfield its members say would close $2.5 billion annually in corporate tax loopholes. The bill was filed in January by Rep. Will Davis, D-East Hazel Crest. […]
A small group of Democratic state lawmakers agreed to co-sponsor the legislation. Senate President John Cullerton vowed to move it through the Senate.
One person’s loophole is another person’s must-have business incentive. Eliminating them is harder than just about anything.
* This could turn out to be more important, however…
Cullerton also committed to seeking a statewide vote on a fair tax, and to working to pass a fully funded two-year budget that closed the corporate loopholes by May 31.
Yep. The fair (graduated) tax is being revived. It’s reportedly been tweaked a bit, but we’ll get more details soon and then we’ll talk about it when we do.
Also, a two-year budget? Hmm.
* The Question: Would you support the crafting of two-year state budgets? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey services
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From the twitters
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform hosted a bi-partisan panel discussion today to talk about the budget…
As noted several times before, as long as anti-union proposals are being demanded in exchange for a tax hike, the Democrats aren’t gonna budge, no matter who the Speaker is.
And even if Rauner isn’t publicly willing to compromise, I see no huge harm in meeting with the man.
Also, more competition in legislative districts will probably lead to more people refusing to tackle tough problems. Not that anybody is doing it now, but I’m just sayin…
* Meanwhile…
* Along those lines, a lobbyist for local governments and a lobbyist for social workers showed a bit more willingness to accept reality in a Twitter exchange over the weekend…
It’s nothing gigantic, but at least they came to some form of an agreement, which is more than we can say for some folks around here.
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*** UPDATE *** From the Kirk campaign…
1Q Numbers for Kirk
Raised: $1,200,000.00
COH: $3.3 million
Response from KFS Campaign Manager Kevin Artl-
“Since his recovery from a stroke in 2012, Senator Kirk has raised over $8 million from over 20,000 donors. During the most recent primary election, Kirk won all 102 Illinois counties and even received more votes than Duckworth in 89 counties - a strength that is also reflected in recent polling that outlines the race as a statistical tie. There is no doubt Senator Kirk will have the resources needed to continue highlighting Duckworth’s reckless national security positions, including her call for allowing in 200,000 unsafely-vetted Syrian refugees. At the same time, Rep. Duckworth will be forced to spend considerable resources dealing with her pending legal troubles where she is accused of retaliating against VA whistleblowers who alerted investigators to mistreatment of veterans under Duckworth’s care.”
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Press release…
Powered by a significant increase in grassroots, small-dollar donations, Tammy Duckworth’s U.S. Senate campaign raised $2.1 million in the first quarter of 2016, and has over $4 million on hand. Duckworth scored a decisive primary win on March 15th, and more than doubled its fundraising pace over the last half of the quarter, taking in over $1.4 million in that time. The campaign received more than 37,000 individual contributions in the first quarter, and has now received nearly 93,000 individual contributions overall. The average contribution this quarter was just $50, while the median was $20.
“This was our campaign’s strongest quarter yet, with both a decisive primary win and significant growth in our base of grassroots contributors,” Tammy for Illinois campaign manager Kaitlin Fahey said. “Tammy’s strong showing on March 15th and subsequent outreach throughout Illinois has demonstrated real enthusiasm and ability to grow. Our campaign is moving into the general election with momentum and expanding resources, and we couldn’t be more optimistic and enthusiastic. Compare that to Mark Kirk, who last week had to resort to releasing an internal poll showing him losing and under the 40 percent threshold, and who has pledged that he ‘certainly would’ support Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, despite Trump’s increasingly outrageous campaign and deep-seated unpopularity among Illinoisans. Kirk’s record of serving the interests of corporations and Wall Street banks at the expense of Illinois families may finally be catching up to him.”
Some key highlights from the report, which will be filed with the Senate Office of Public Records and Federal Elections Commission this week:
The campaign received 37,366 individual contributions from a total of 28,104 individuals in the first quarter. Since declaring in March of 2015, the Duckworth for Senate campaign has received 92,839 individual contributions;
Of those 1Q contributions, 96.1 percent were for $100 or less, a 1.5% increase over the previous quarter;
The average individual contribution was $50.81, and the median individual contribution was $20, both the lowest such figures for this cycle, demonstrating rapid growth in low-dollar contributors.
The Illinois Senate race is consistently ranked as the top race in the country, and Senator Kirk is routinely listed as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent. The Duckworth campaign raised $1 million more than Kirk over the last two quarters of 2015, essentially erasing Kirk’s longstanding cash-on-hand advantage. Duckworth raised $661,000 during the pre-primary period from January 1st—February 24th, compared to $458,000 for Kirk. Kirk has not publicly released his full first quarter fundraising numbers.
Last week, Duckworth was endorsed by President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.
As noted in the release, Sen. Kirk has not yet released his latest fundraising totals. Kirk raised $1 million in the fourth quarter, and ended last year with $3.8 million on hand. Duckworth, by contrast raised $1.6 million in that quarter and had $3.65 million on hand. So, her cash position didn’t increase by much.
But this is a long race and there will be tons of outside money spent here, so a few hundred grand difference between the two right now won’t matter much come November.
* Related…
* ADDED: Sun-Times editorial: False facts and fearful talk about Guantanamo give U.S. black eye: But Kirk has it wrong. Federal law already prohibits sending Gitmo detainees to Iran, Sudan or any other country on a list of nations designated as state sponsors of terrorism.
* Laura Washington: Debates will help settle Kirk-Duckworth race
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Today’s number: 63 percent
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kate Grossman writing in the Atlantic…
Austin High School on Chicago’s struggling West Side is a proud school with a bad reputation and too few students. It likely has just one more shot at survival.
Austin has hollowed out in recent years, as have dozens of similar schools across Chicago’s poor and mostly Latino and black neighborhoods. With 391 students, including just 57 freshmen across three academies in a building meant for nearly 1,700, Austin is one of 35 Chicago public high schools that are well under half full. Ten schools aren’t even a quarter full.
These schools face a set of woes that make a turnaround all but impossible. A citywide school-choice system leaves these mostly open-enrollment schools with some of Chicago’s most challenging and low-achieving students. Deeply strained budgets fueled by declining enrollment hurt staffing levels, teacher retention, and programming. Mix in a stubborn reputation for violence at many schools—unwarranted in the case of Austin and some others—and these schools are in a death spiral.
In a high-school universe defined by choice, these schools and students are the clear losers. Chicago’s neediest students are clustered at the bottom of the pecking order of the district, in the most under-resourced and embattled schools.
Chicago has a poor track record of delivering for its weakest students but this latest chapter, arguably an inevitable and predictable consequence of school choice, may be a new low. Students who need the healthiest and most stable schools are segregated in the most unstable institutions, often with the most troubled classmates. Victims of a set of powerful and destructive forces that have undermined their schools and neighborhoods, these students and their schools face an increasingly bleak and uncertain future.
* The kicker…
Meanwhile, the city since 2000 has opened dozens of schools to offer more choice and retain the middle class. Most are public charter schools that admit by lottery but a bevy of test-based schools and programs also launched. Chicago now has 101,000 students in 140 high schools, excluding alternative schools. In 2000, CPS had 93,000 students in 86 high schools. That’s a 63 percent increase in schools against an 8 percent increase in students. For neighborhoods like Austin that have lost population, this seats-students mismatch is particularly devastating.
Neighborhood schools weren’t working in many neighborhoods at the bottom of the economic ladder. So, Chicago embraced public school choice. But that isn’t working either for kids on the lowest economic rungs. Charters can kick kids out for low performance, behavioral problems, etc. and they do that a lot.
I happen to think charters can be a great thing. But, man, the costs sure are high to run all those new schools. And innovators like Kansas City are also having some very real problems.
All I do know for sure is that slogans on both sides don’t help matters much. So, try to avoid them in comments. Thanks.
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You just never know what you’ll find
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I was reducing some clutter in my office over the weekend and found a bunch of stuff that I forgot I had or hadn’t looked at in years. Here’s a campaign beanie from Bill Stratton’s campaign…
I think my dad bought me that one.
* I went to college with this guy. He was a PAR student back then and wrote a story in the college paper about me after my election as student president…
* I bought a painting online by Henry Hill of “Goodfellas” infamy, didn’t like it, put it away and couldn’t ever find it again. It was still in its original envelope buried in a box…
* A few mementos from a 1999 trip to Cuba…
* And here’s a piece of campaign lit that I completely forgot about…
I think somebody else inked his teeth. But he actually thought this was a good idea for some reason.
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No bills for you!
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tom Kacich…
(T)he Illinois House still hasn’t had an appropriations hearing on next year’s budgets for Illinois’ public colleges and universities, those annual exercises where higher ed officials get called before House members with oftentimes ask parochial and unpredictable questions.
Normally those hearings are headed by the chair of the Appropriations-Higher Education Committee.
That would be Rep. Ken Dunkin, the Chicago Democrat who is viewed by some of his Democratic colleagues as a Judas for siding with Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner on a couple of high-profile issues. In fact, Dunkin was defeated in last month’s Democratic primary, despite big bucks from Rauner allies.
There’s a higher education budget hearing in the House this week but it’ll be before Rep. Kelly Burke’s Higher Education Committee.
I asked Steve Brown, a spokesman for House Speaker Michael Madigan, why the higher ed budgets weren’t going to Dunkin’s appropriations committee.
“We prefer to think of it as going to Kelly Burke’s committee,” he said with a smile.
Well, at least Dunkin is still getting his chairmanship stipend, even if he isn’t doing anything.
This is SOP for Madigan, by the way. He’s done this very same thing to at least two other members in the past (Al Ronan and Jay Hoffman) when he believed they were plotting against him.
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Looking at history
Monday, Apr 11, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Finke…
“The last time the general state aid formula for school funding was changed was in ’03 when we had complete Democrat control of our General Assembly and governorship,” Rauner said [last week]. “There was complete Democrat control of our government for 12 years, and there was no change. Now all of a sudden, there’s this perception of crisis. This issue was created by Democrats.”
Not exactly. And you have to be careful not to draw the wrong conclusions from what Rauner is saying.
He’s correct that the last time the formula was changed was in 2003 when Democrats had complete control. Manar said he’s not sure what Rauner is talking about, but here’s his guess: “In 2003, there was a bill that was passed that dealt with how you count children who live in poverty. That’s not a formula change,” Manar said. “That bill in 2003 got 55 votes in the Senate.”
Or, as Manar put it, it wasn’t a bill that “Democrats crammed down Republicans’ throats.”
In fact, the essential part of the funding formula was put in place in 1997 when Republicans controlled the Senate and there was a Republican governor. Both made sure Republican interests were taken care of, so even wealthy school districts in GOP areas got their piece of the school-funding pie.
That’s all true.
But, as Finke clearly points out, Rauner is correct when he says the Democrats had control for a dozen years and did basically nothing and are now all of a sudden demanding reforms.
The problem is that more than two decades of consensus about how to fix the situation - a state income tax hike swapped for a local property tax cut - was tossed out the window by the Democrats when the state’s fiscal position became so imperiled that it needed every dime of a tax hike for itself. And then along came Speaker Madigan’s idea to make local school districts pick up their pension costs. Those two things completely upended the entire process and it took Sen. Andy Manar’s new ideas to finally get something going again.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Governor Bruce Rauner has hit a brick wall attempting to convince House Speaker Michael Madigan to come to the negotiating table to talk about ending the long governmental impasse and then working out a budget deal. So after holding numerous public appearances to demand a sit-down, Rauner shifted gears last week when the two Republican legislative leaders trotted out a new spending plan to provide $1.3 billion to fund human services and other programs.
The proposal would partly be funded with some pension reforms that Republicans claim will save $780 million. The reforms include some accounting changes and pushing off pension costs to local schools and to higher-education institutions for salaries above $180,000 a year. But there are relatively few employees making more than $180K a year, and the $780 million is about a third of the state’s annual “normal costs” for pensions, so it seems somewhat difficult to believe that these savings are actually as high as billed.
And even if the money is real, the $1.3-billion GOP proposal is significantly smaller than either appropriations bill passed by the legislature’s Democratic majorities. The Senate Democrats’ spending plan was pegged at about $3.8 billion, with half of that ($1.9 billion) going to social services.
Still, the bill could very well generate some interest among rank-and-file Democrats worried about the implosion of the state’s social safety net as a possible next step in the negotiating process. For instance, the legislation appropriates more than $10 million for the Adult Redeploy program, which diverts nonviolent offenders from prison terms. That money would come from the General Revenue Fund, but the legislation also uses money from special state funds to pay for programs popular with Democrats that aren’t currently being funded by the state, like homeless-youth services.
By far, however, the most intriguing aspect of the Republican bill is what’s not in it – at least not yet. None of Rauner’s usual anti-union “poison pills” is attached. The governor has demanded the passage of several reforms as a condition for talking about the budget, but none of those is overtly attached to this new Republican proposal.
The GOP legislation also gives the governor some spending-transfer authority within the budget, but it appears to be much more limited than earlier demands for near dictatorial control over moving around just about every state dollar as he saw fit.
And while the GOP appropriations bill might not actually be fully funded by its pension component, it certainly has more funding behind it than either Democratic plan out there right now. And still more funding could be found by using part of the Democrats’ proposal, which includes forgiving about $450 million in loans from special state funds (an idea that the governor had previously said he could probably live with).
The idea, it appears, is to present a far more “reasonable” GOP face than in the recent past – and put Madigan on defense both for hiding behind his incessant political games and for refusing to come to the bargaining table, thus allowing the state to crash and burn while waiting for the governor to cave.
An official close to Mayor Rahm Emanuel said last week that his boss and Rauner have regularly spoken with each other despite all the harsh public sniping between the two men. The governor, he said, claims that he wants to make a deal.
But Madigan just doesn’t believe that private talks with the governor will work because they obviously haven’t borne fruit since this crisis began in late May of last year, when the Democrats rammed through a hugely unbalanced budget that was then almost completely vetoed by Rauner.
I totally get the lack of trust the Democrats have in this governor. He has broken confidences, has broken his word, and has attempted to break their, um, stones by hurling insults for months. I also fully appreciate the tension that has built up on both sides during the past 14 months or so.
But it’s not like anybody’s doing anything else while we all wait around for Armageddon.
Private negotiations are obviously preferable to public negotiations, but private negotiations are off the table right now because Madigan says so. (And he has his reasons, some better than others.) So public negotiations are better than no negotiations at all, and we’ll have to take what we can get.
Hopefully, we’ll see a counter-offer from the Democrats soon.
*** UPDATE *** No surprise here. The governor’s budget office has recommended that the governor sign the GOP bill if passed. Click to read the memo.
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