Whistling past the graveyard
Wednesday, May 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bloomberg takes a look at Donald Trump’s potential impact on US Senate races…
“We’ve been preparing and running with the expectation that a Democrat will win Illinois maybe by 10 points,” [Sen. Mark Kirk’s campaign manager Kevin Artl] said.
That means that, to win against Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth, who is challenging him, Kirk has to outperform the top of the ticket by five or six points.
The key to making up this deficit, according to Artl, is to focus on Kirk’s personal brand: “Fiscal conservative, social moderate, national security hawk,” he describes it. Artl mentions Kirk’s support for immigration reform, gay marriage and abortion rights, and the fact that he speaks Spanish.
The campaign is pressing hard on that specific qualification. It provided (partial) internal polling that said Kirk was beating Duckworth among Hispanics by more than six points in April. Artl said the candidates are essentially tied with independent women.
When he goes on the offensive, the strategy will be to paint Duckworth as the real Washington insider. Kirk might target Duckworth’s endorsement of Clinton, Artl said, but he’s more likely to hit her over a lawsuit against her from her time as head of the Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as the fact that former Governor Rod Blagojevich, who is imprisoned on corruption charges, appointed her to the position.
* Just 10 points? Well, Obama won Illinois in 2012 by 17 points and won in 2008 by 25 points. Then again, John Kerry beat President Bush by 11 points and Al Gore beat Bush by 12 points. Those Republican candidates were all solidly within the GOP mainstream, unlike the currently presumptive nominee, who has the highest unfavorables in modern presidential campaign history…
In response to [last night’s] developments in the Republican presidential primary race, Duckworth deputy campaign manager Matt McGrath released the following statement:
“Six weeks ago, Republican Mark Kirk pledged that he ‘certainly would’ support Donald Trump if he was his party’s nominee. Tonight, he got his wish. Congratulations.”
Clinton’s unfavorables are also extremely high, but assuredly not as high here as they are nationally.
* Also, the Paul Simon Institute poll found that fully a quarter of Illinois voters didn’t know enough about Kirk to rate him…
“(T)here is an unusually large number who say they do not know what kind of job he is doing” [said John S. Jackson, a visiting professor at the institute]
You gotta build a brand before you can campaign on it.
* To be clear, I don’t think this is going to be an easy race for Duckworth. Sen. Kirk is one of the better campaigners this state has produced in quite a while. But the trend is definitely not his friend.
- Annonin' - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:10 am:
let’s be clear, CommandoMakeItUp would be in trouble even if Ds did not post a candidate. His support of Trump suggests he should drop out now and get replaced. Maybe ChopperJerry cold be called off the bench to fill in ( just jokin’)
Doubt that voters wil even notice the Congresswoman while escapin’ the Commando era.
TTFN
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:14 am:
If it looks dark close to November, Kirk always has the option of throwing the Hail Mary, denouncing Trump and saying he won’t vote for him.
Wouldn’t be the biggest flip in the world. And I’m guessing Trump will say plenty of things before then to provide Kirk with a rationale.
- slow down - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:15 am:
Kirk intends to paint Duckworth as a Washington insider? Really? This is a guy who has spent the vast majority of his adult life in Washington as a staffer and then member of Congress and he’s going to paint Duckworth as the Washington insider? Good luck with that Mark.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:16 am:
Godspeed Kevin, Godspeed.
To the Post,
Kirk and Munger’s fear?
Trump-Rauner, and Labor and Democrats dragging Social Service advocates in and THAT coalition, today, working a framework, statewide, to send a message to Bruce Rauner “and his pal Donald Trump… ” that Illinois is not a place you purchase and sell off the parts, hurting the most needy.
That would be my fear, and I’d be working to tear both Kirk and Munger away from “Wingman” imagery and have them both be seen as “outstanding public servants, doing the people’s work, and being the best Senator/Comptroller for Illinois.
It’s May. If Labor, Democrats, and Social Service advocates decide “NO!” on perceived Raunerites… throwing in Trunp to reinforce it…
Godspeed, Kevin, Godspeed.
- JB13 - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:23 am:
I’ve said before that Illinois is not as reliably blue as many of you wish to believe. The 2008-12 presidential results were because of Obama. If you want to try to paint Mark Kirk as Ted Cruz-lite, well, by all means, go ahead and look stupid. He’s the kind of Republican who, all things being equal, can win statewide in Illinois. But Trump is going to hang heavy around his neck, especially among those Hispanics he claims are supporting him (just wait until Duckworth circulates the Spanish-language fliers with Kirk’s portrait right next to Trump’s. Good luck explaining that, Senator.) So this is definitely not a year for “all things being equal.”
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:29 am:
Besides Trump, how much will Duckworth be able to tie Rauner around Kirk’s neck?
- OneMan - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:29 am:
If Clinton pushes to get the disenfranchised GOP vote that ends up helping Kirk, since a GOP voter who would consider voting for her would likely vote for Kirk as a Republican they can get behind.
- Mason born - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:31 am:
Word
He won’t be the only one denouncing Trump in an attemp to save their butt.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:34 am:
- OneMan -
Hillary/Kirk? I can see it, but sell it to me.
Heck, I could be “this” voter…
===Besides Trump, how much will Duckworth be able to tie Rauner around Kirk’s neck?===
Besides all the Kirk Staff now working for Rauner and the monies Rauner will get to Kirk as the campaign goes on?
- A guy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:46 am:
Kirk should just run his race. The Presidential race is way too hard to predict. The effect it will have elsewhere on the ticket is nothing more than a guess. No one has predicted anything correctly with this enigma.
Hillary isn’t Barrack. She’ll win AA support, but not nearly the passionate numbers he appealed to. Trump resonates with a lot of middlers, and a lot of white Dems. People are voting for Trump in large numbers and not revealing their preference in polls. We’ll know on election day.
It’s fun to guess, but that’s all it is. To Senator Kirk; just run your race.
- illinois manufacturer - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:00 am:
Rauner is a bigger weight than Trump. Trump has let it out his focus is on Ohio and Michigan with a head fake on PA and WI.That means really bad news for GOP senate candidates like Portman and Twomey who are supporters of the free trade stuff.All I heard from Trump was trade and a big government infratructre program. I did not hear Koch brothers and Raunerism stuff.That said the Presidential may just be distant noise. I think it will be a lot more OW vote accordingly.
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:00 am:
Kirk is toast. Trump is going to lose here by huge margins and Duckworth is going to wrap Trump around Kirk’s entire body. Add to that the sad reality that he really isn’t ready for this campaign because of his physical and mental condition and you have a recipe for a pretty significant thrashing.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:10 am:
I don’t think Kirk, or Munger too, is toast.
The only way they both are toast is if both become the proxy candidate(s) to Democrats, Labor, and social service advocates in a coordinated, strategic effort to send a message to Bruce Rauner, and using both Rauner and Trump to fuel the angst.
Kirk and Munger can both win. Period.
It’s just up to them…
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:18 am:
Long odds for Kirk, given the state of the Presidential race, the fact that his opponent pushes all the right demographic and electoral buttons (other than much of a record of legislative achievement), lingering doubts about his condition, and a series of odd statements over the past years. I just don’t think this is a tide he is well positioned to run against.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:19 am:
I will vote third party for the President and hold my nose to vote for Kirk.
I do not like Trump or Hillary and can not vote for either of them.
I do not like Kirk or Duckworth but dislike Kirk less then I dislike Duckworth.
Duckworth was an also ran until they redistrictred to get her elected. She is a Dick Durbin Washington insider.
I have no candidates that I can support. I might as well move to Germany.
- Skeptic - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:30 am:
“I have no candidates that I can support” The heck with a graduated tax amendment, let’s put a “None of the Above” amendment on the ballot!
- illinois manufacturer - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:40 am:
I think OW is right. I think Trump will lose but no worse than generic Republican.They need to run away from Rauner and ignore the Pres. I just don’t think either will run far enough away and this they will lose. I still go with a gain of a couple seats in the ILLINOIS house.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 12:00 pm:
Donald Trump is one name that will be used to bludgeon Mark Kirk. Merrick Garland is another.
Between a do-nothing Senate and an embarrassment for a nominee, Mark Kirk is in a very tough spot.
I agree with Cynic, he’s a goner. Hopefully he’ll run his final campaign with dignity and go out on his own terms, not on the terms of the lunatic fringe that is dominating his party.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 12:08 pm:
===Merrick Garland is another.===
Really? Kirk was the first GOP Senator to meet with him. Kirk was the guy who said he deserved hearings. They’re going to bludgeon Kirk with Garland?
Who are you trying to convince? Besides you? Garland could wind up being a testimonial for Kirk.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 12:20 pm:
===They’re going to bludgeon Kirk with Garland?===
Yes, the line of attack being Mark Kirk + Mitch McConnell = More Obstructionist GOP Senate.
It’s pretty obvious and hardly unique. You can watch it play out in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire. Political Wire is quoting unnamed GOP strategists saying there is a 75% - 80% chance they lose the Senate in November.
Garland is only a testimonial for Kirk’s ineffectiveness. The idea that the United States Senate would deny this nominee a fair hearing and vote is inherently un-American and most people see it for what it is, a naked political ploy.
Mitch McConnell would give Donald Trump’s nominee a fair hearing and a vote, but not Barack Obama’s?
- slow down - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 12:24 pm:
A guy, Kirk votes for and empowers Mitch McConnell, the person running the senate who refuses to proceed with Garland’s nomination. Garland will not be a testimonial for Kirk.
- downstater - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:14 pm:
There are a lot of Republican voters downstate who will be under voting in the Senate race. Kirk is highly unpopular down here amongst conservatives.
- Springfieldish - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:48 pm:
Kirk’s troubles today stem in part from the way he won the 10th. Appearing to be a moderate (think ‘fence-sitter’ because that’s the way every GOP committeeman south and west of Will County thinks) won him the 10th over and over again. And he didn’t have to pull his ‘moderate’ game in 2010 because Alexi was weak and, c’mon, it was 2010!
In 2016, not a single Dem, except for a few in Forby’s district who will cross over for Trump, will crossover for Kirk, so the ‘moderate card is a loser. And the number of ‘moderate GOP voters who support Kirk will just about equal the number of ‘moderate’ GOP voters who will just stay at home because of Trump.
The ‘insider’ tactic will explode in Kirk’s face. Tammy enlisted. Kirk was ‘appointed’ because of who he worked for. With one issue, Tammy wins two issue points because, while Tammy paid the price for her service, Kirk campaigned on his.
Why anyone would throw good money at a Kirk campaign with such a narrow, pothole strewn road to victory is beyond me. Even Rauner will see Il. Senate races as having a greater ROI.
- Petr Borgandovich - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 2:05 pm:
Could care less if a candidate is an *insider* or part of the *establishment*.
- Emily Booth - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 8:31 pm:
Like the Carole Mosely Braun senatorial race, this is the year for women.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 9:05 pm:
“- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 12:20 pm:”
Then blame the Democrates. They started the games with the US Supreme Court.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:26 pm:
I’m really honked that Kasich suspended his campaign.
I voted for him and his delegates (who won in my district) to fight this Trump sickness to the bitter end. It’s that important. Who can’t see that?
After Cruz dropped, Kasich could have at least gone one-on-one with Trump until California. The panderers (look it up) on cable and radio would have had to at least cover him as a foil for their Cash Cow.
Some things are worth fighting for, have to be fought for, until the end. And like the man said, sometimes “party loyalty” asks too much.
Nancy Kimme, I voted for you, and you won. What’s your plan for Cleveland?
Tim Schneider? Bruce Rauner? Mark Kirk?
For crying out loud, this is the Land of Lincoln. And Grant. And Reagan.
Where do you stand, now?
No weasel words.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:49 pm:
==Then blame the Democrates. They started the games with the US Supreme Court.==
“They started it…” Public policy by schoolyard-recess standards.
Who was the Supreme Court nominee that the “Democrates” refused to give a hearing? I’ll hang up and listen for your answer.
Do yourself a favor: turn off the TV and radio sometime and take a waddle down the street to your local library.