Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan rose to give his customary year-end speech after the House had concluded its business last week, and pointed his finger right at Gov. Bruce Rauner.
For months, Madigan has noted that every time Rauner sets aside his “personal agenda,” the two men have been able to reach a compromise on a spending proposal. What Madigan refers to as a personal agenda is actually Rauner’s Turnaround Agenda, a package of mainly pro-business/anti-union measures that the Legislature’s Democratic majority has so far refused to approve. And Rauner won’t agree to a full budget deal until that happens, which is why Illinois went a year without a budget.
Madigan informed the chamber that the new, temporary stopgap budget deal and K-12 education spending plan passed last week represented the “seventh time” they have approved spending proposals independent of the governor’s agenda in the last 18 months.
But pension reform is very near the top of the governor’s “personal agenda.” And, last week, Madigan put votes on a bill which gives Chicago Public Schools $205 million for its pension system. And, per the agreement he made with Rauner, it will only be signed into law if the leaders can agree on a significant pension reform bill by January.
Madigan was reportedly reluctant to make that deal. He called it a “trap” during private negotiations with the governor. He could be right about this being a trap. Barring divine intervention, CPS will face yet another severe cash crunch next June as it struggles to make its huge annual pension payment. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will probably be desperate for a deal to get access to that state cash infusion. And the unions which support Madigan (meaning all of them) are not going to love having to wage yet another pension reform fight. Madigan will be “trapped” in the middle.
The speaker was reportedly convinced to accept the offer at the urging of Mayor Emanuel. And, even then, Madigan insisted on having a bipartisan roll call, with a strict minimum number of Republican votes — and he stuck to that demand even though the House Republicans were short a couple of members last week.
The point, though, is that the governor, after a year and a half of private cajoling and public bullying, finally succeeded at convincing Mayor Emanuel to put some pressure on Madigan to do a deal. And that pressure will only increase as the January passage deadline approaches for pension reform. Once that begins, it may be hard to contain, so members of Team Rauner are likely hoping they can use similar ideas to force Madigan to the table on other Turnaround Agenda items, like workers’ compensation cost cuts and reduced rights for unionized employees in local governments.
Madigan could, however, use all this to his own political advantage through the summer and fall.
Gov. Rauner said last week that helping the legislative Republicans pick up seats in November would be a top priority from here on out. He correctly noted that their super-minority status meant they had little influence at the Statehouse. He wants to give them a bigger voice. Rauner has said previously that if the Democrats pick up any seats this November it would be a “disaster” for taxpayers. And he has repeatedly said that the Democrats have made it clear it will be easier for them to do a “grand bargain” if they wait until after the election.
That all adds up to a huge incentive for unions to rally behind Madigan. If they work hard and help Madigan pick up some seats, perhaps they can stave off a “grand bargain.” But if they slack off even a little and Madigan suffers a loss, no matter how slight, well, the grand bargaining could commence in earnest.
If Madigan’s interest group allies truly go all out and they can build on the natural Democratic advantage of a presidential election year, and perhaps the added advantage of a pretty darned odd Republican nominee, Madigan could definitely pick up seats. The Democrats have polling which they say shows this could happen.
But the Republicans have polling which they claim shows they’re doing really well in numerous targeted legislative districts.
That’s one reason why the Republicans could justify last week’s stopgap budget bargain, even though it’s widely expected to take lots of heat off of incumbents (and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents than Republican incumbents). At least, that’s the hope. This has been, after all, a very bizarre year all over the place.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:27 am:
Enjoyed the column!
Could Madigan agree to pass a version of pension reform that likely will be held unconstitutional anyway, thereby fulfilling his end of the bargain without having any financial impact on public employee union members?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:37 am:
Great work, Rich, enjoyed it.
To the Post,
===And, even then, Madigan insisted on having a bipartisan roll call, with a strict minimum number of Republican votes — and he stuck to that demand even though the House Republicans were short a couple of members last week.===
The Speaker was “reluctant”, but made sure, even after nearly blowing up the whole thing, the structured roll call was “We’re all in this together”, as to ensure the vote wasn’t goif to be flipped by the millions Rauner will spend to get his Raunerite numbers increased.
It’s July. If Labor and Drmocrats haven’t mapped out, figuratively and literally, how to maximize the POTUS election voting universe to keep Raunerites from expanding…
… you’re already behind, Labor and Democrats.
As for Social Service groups, advocates, clients, and donors, if you’re fooled with thus stopgap and still want to continue the “both sides” straddling, remind yourselves of the defeat of Ron Sabdack’s tweet, for Sandack made clear, his frustration, and yours, oh well, reform was more important than social services closing, other services ending, and people hurting.
That’s only going to get worse with Raunerites winning, not better. Rauner is counting on social services being thankful, and not being vengeful… even if Rauner purposely squeezed the end out of many programs and the elimination of countless jobs.
I’m grateful for the stopgap, more than happy it occurred for all. It was long overdue.
Now that the next six months are “settled”, the question now is “Who, who, who” do you trust come November.
- Keyrock - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:37 am:
He’s done that before, Robert the Bruce.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:41 am:
Robert, that’s a point to be addressed later today.
- RIJ - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:44 am:
Sigh. Kiss my tush and pay my pension. You tried before and have been smacked down by the ILSC. There is already Tier II pensions, which likely will eventually fall afoul of Federal laws. I guess there could be a Tier III under which the State government re-institutes indentures. Work hard for nothing and a pittance when you leave.
- Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:45 am:
I suspect any pension deal with ratchet up the coercion by removing as many non-protected benefits as possible.
In other words — you have 3 weeks of vacation now? Welcome to a world where you get 1 week of paid vacation if you want a pension.
Obviously, this would work — and would essentially force everyone from Tier 1 to Tier 2.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:45 am:
I don’t see a dramatic change of power after the upcoming election. In this scenario, any Rauner anti-bargaining TA proposals could be thwarted by Democrats. Many Democrats believe in union rights and would vote to protect them no matter who is the Speaker.
A property tax freeze without collective bargaining restrictions, or with very minor restrictions, is the way to go, absent any other ideas (such as expansion of MMJ, which would bring in more local revenue).
There’s no way Democrats should give in to Rauner and his super-rich partners–not after the real sacrifices that were made to ensure public workers have bargaining rights.
- Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:46 am:
oops — meant: “… will ratchet up …”
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:50 am:
I think I understand the rationale behind the Chicago schools / pension “reform” deal. But what a waste of money and time, especially time.
As we’ve discussed multiple times, any pension “reform” that claims to save significant money on the pension debt will eventually be found unconstitutional.
Maybe they can pass a law barring employer pickup on the employee pension payment and call it “reform”. That would be legal and free up some money in the CPS budget … until the teachers demand higher wages. But it won’t change the CPS pension debt by a single penny unless that freed up money is paid into the pension systems. It would give Rauner a victory of sorts because he could (more or less) claim he freed up some money for education.
- Anon221 - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:50 am:
OW- “Rauner is counting on social services being thankful, and not being vengeful…”
****
The problem is, some are not or shorthly will not be around at all anymore. I guess to Rauner that is both Savin’ and Winnin’.
http://will.illinois.edu/21stshow/program/school-and-social-service-budget-check-in-fasting-during-ramadan
DeWitt County HRC is meeting tonight to determine any possible future, but their doors closed last week. They are referenced in yesterday’s The 21st airing.
- Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:54 am:
I don’t see the balance of power changing after the election either- not enough truly contested districts. The re-districting Bullet point if the Turnaround Agenda is the only item I actually agree with. Too much gerrymandering goes on.
As to benefits vs pension. I have less than 3 years till I could retire- around 5 or so years until I plan to retire. It’s doubtful that any benefit penalty could get me to swap to Tier II. I won’t get free retiree insurance because I won’t have 20 years in.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 9:55 am:
While this isn’t directly about CPS, I wonder if CMS or SERS have ran any projections on the pension debt projecting most of the remaining Tier 1 employees retiring the end of this year?
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:00 am:
- Thoughts Matter -
You will get partially paid for retiree health insurance, based on a sliding scale linked to the number of years you did work.
- Mama - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:04 am:
“pressure will only increase as the January passage deadline approaches for pension reform workers’ compensation cost cuts and reduced rights for unionized employees in local governments”
The governor still wants to throw the union workers under the bus.
RNUG, how much money will this “reduced rights for unionized employees” save the state?
- Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:05 am:
RNUG - agreed. My comment about it was 1. To stave off the trolls who want to tell me how terrible I am getting free retiree health insurance,and 2- an offer of free health insurance might be persuasive, but probably not since it won’t be that many years until I am 65 and the cost will be reasonable as it is.
- Mama - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:13 am:
OW, what do you say to people whom think Rauner is doing good things for the state?
- Harry - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:13 am:
So, the GA will pass and Rauner will sign Cullerton’s pension bill, everyone will do a victory lap, 6 months later the Circuit Court will void it as patently unconstitutional under the Kaverna, Heaton and Jones decisions, and a year after that the Supreme Court will affirm and everyone will be, “Oh, well, another pointless waste of 2 years, so what?”
- Union Man - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:19 am:
The state’s biggest expense is healthcare/medicaid. Our state and our nation would have more money available if/when we move to a National Health System. We spend and waste $8 Billion each year.
- cardsmama - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:24 am:
I appreciate this post. Strangely, what popped out most to me is “pretty darned odd Republican nominee”. So tactful.
Seriously, this was a great read.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:24 am:
- Mama -
Don’t get caught in the weeds.
The key here is for Democrats to educate Democrats on the Raunerites and maximize the POTUS voting universe
Another key is Labor doing far better than 2 in 5 voting Raunerite, and further, getting it down to 1 in 5 or even 1 in 6 in the Micro statehouse races. Labor needs to make clear all of Labor should fear Raunerites, and vote accordingly.
No one is asking me how or what to do, so I’ll leave it up to Labor to figure all that out, and as a Republican and not a Raunerite, my hope is that Republicans emerge and can win to help the GOP Caucuses.
I hope.
- illinois manufacturer - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:45 am:
Unionman and even worse we pay about the highest portion of Medicaid as well. Out US senators really deliver
- Steward As Well.... - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:47 am:
Mama, how much money “reduced rights for unionized employees” would save the state would be difficult to calculate.
I have labored getting across to rank and file as bad as a freeze on wages and a 60/40 health plan that the guv is attempting to ram down the unions throat by far sub-contracting with no checks and balances, as well as weakening seniority and bumping rights is far more insidious. Potentially subcontracting would save the state money. It would depend upon how many higher wage earners presently working with the state could be displaced with lower earners. Of course as those who get booted out the door leave in many many cases so does their invaluable experience.
Would the state be better off if this happened…. nope.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:50 am:
–Could Madigan agree to pass a version of pension reform that likely will be held unconstitutional anyway, thereby fulfilling his end of the bargain without having any financial impact on public employee union members?–
Worked before.
If the Ahabs want to chase the unattainable, I say play along and get things done.
The Supremes were unambiguous, but some people are obsessed.
- Doug Simpson - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 11:08 am:
I dont know how the titular Leader of the Republican Party can be called unusual or odd. He is saying things that the party has dreamed of saying for years. And its quite funny watching the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, tie himself up in knots trying to disagree.
- Anon221 - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 11:17 am:
Rauner continues to cite “Cullerton’s Pension Plan” (or John’s when he’s feeling especially chummy) as the go to plan that he will support. So, if it gets shot down by ILSC after months of negotiating and rewrites and committees and caucuses, then it’s not Rauner’s fault. Rauner will kick this can as far as possible for his 2018 re-election bid and he’ll never have to “own it”.
- Nick Name - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 11:57 am:
The only “pension reform” that really matters and that will meet constitutional muster is a tax hike. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors.
- crazybleedingheart - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 12:29 pm:
Rahm Emanuel now *openly* shilling for the Turnaround Agenda. This mayor could probably get worse, but I’m not sure how.
Too bad Madigan is one of the select few who still think he’s relevant enough to pacify.
- Rock Island Rocky - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 2:37 pm:
Great article. I think it is pretty bullish to think Dems will pick up state house seats. What is more likely is both the house and senate Dems loosing their super majorities.
Hopefully, in the veto session a grand compromise or two can be reached. Personally, I would love to see an expansion of the sales tax to services (70% of our economy) and be exclusively allocated to funding education. Additionally, it would diversify our tax base, relieve pressure on property tax payers and give local governments additional revenue options.
Trading a sales tax expansion to fund schools in exchange for say workers comp reform is exactly the type of swing for the fences grand bargain we need.
- RIJ - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 2:46 pm:
Well, Doug, I believe it’s actually pretty mild to call the leader presumptive of the GOP unusual or odd. He is reflective of his party, which has been going off the rails for decades. That’s part of how Illinois ended up with Rauner, someone with no political experience and a desire to destroy.
- Mama - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 6:14 pm:
==And, per the agreement he made with Rauner, it will only be signed into law if the leaders can agree on a significant pension reform bill by January.==
RUNG or Rich, do you know how Rauner defined “significant pension reform”?
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 7:42 pm:
-Mama-
I posted a response but it seems to have been trapped by the auto filters. Didn’t think I used any banned words.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 6, 16 @ 10:39 pm:
-MAMA-
I would assume Rauner means something like the Cullerton pension “reform” plan he was pushing earlier this year.