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*** UPDATED x1 - Report posted *** Last time I checked, $8 billion was higher than $7 billion

Thursday, Jul 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the governor’s office talking points memo sent to Republican legislators today touting Gov. Rauner’s accomplishments

Defeated the Democrat supermajority FY 2017 spending plan that would have raised personal income tax rates to more than 5.5% - The House Democrats’ $40 billion spending plan for FY 2017 was more than $7 billion out of balance and would have required crushing tax increases to pay for all of its promises.

* AP

The state of Illinois’ spending will outstrip what it brings in by nearly $8 billion this year, according to a government analysis obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.

The legislative Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability reviewed the budget deal that lawmakers and Gov. Bruce Rauner approved in June on the brink of the new fiscal year, which began this month, at the behest of Republican Rep. David McSweeney.

The report, provided to AP in advance of general release, found that the state will spend $39.6 billion — including $3 billion in obligations that were not addressed in the six-month stop-gap budget agreed to by Democrats who control the Legislature and Rauner — but only bring in $31.8 billion.

So, what are the tax hike consequences of Rauner’s own proposal? If the rate would’ve been “more than 5.5%” under the Dems’ $7 billion deficit, what are the “crushing tax increases” required for an $8 billion hole?

*** UPDATE ***  Click here to read the COGFA report.

       

43 Comments
  1. - Juvenal - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:23 pm:

    LOLOL.


  2. - Doug Simpson - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:24 pm:

    Any mention anywhere of the balanced budget the Governor submitted?

    Oh thats right, he hasnt.

    “D’oh!”


  3. - Keyrock - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:24 pm:

    The Busted Talking Points.

    (Oh. Wait, should that be on the QOTE thread?)


  4. - Keyrock - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:25 pm:

    QOTD thread (sorry for the typo.)


  5. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:27 pm:

    Page 2 of the memo says, if challenged on the math, repeat “but Madigan!” until the questions go away.


  6. - Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:27 pm:

    Rauner and crew have perfected the “Do as I say, not as I do” concept.

    They are winning the messaging war, though. I always wonder why the Ds don’t respond more forcefully (but not more shrilly) to these kinds of things.

    What’s ironic is that Rauner doesn’t understand that the GOP will — almost always — win the messaging war. The *reception* of the message is what Rauner is losing.

    The medium is the massage.


  7. - thunderspirit - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:28 pm:

    Maybe multi-billion dollar deficits only count when the governor is Pat Quinn?


  8. - Huh? - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:28 pm:

    “last time I checked 8-billion was higher than 7-billion”

    It really depends on who is doing the math and which number is more beneficial to the argument.

    Kind of reminds me of the cuts vs increase argument. One persons cut is another’s increase.


  9. - Annonin' - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:29 pm:

    Yikes even Capt Fax falls off the BigBrain bobsled. Guess we all have a limit to how much B* we can gulp in


  10. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:31 pm:

    All Republicans voted against a millionaires tax, so that all taxpayers could equally share in the largest tax increase in Illinois history. They didn’t want to inconvenience those that were most able to contribute.


  11. - Juvenal - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:33 pm:

    === They are winning the messaging war, though. ===

    According to Rauner, the Message War is the only thing they are losing.

    If they were winning the message war, there would be actual accomplishments to show for it.

    Defeating a budget that was unbalanced by $7 billion so you can sign a budget unbalanced by $8 billion is not a victory in my book.


  12. - Honeybear - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:33 pm:

    It is Republican perfidy to site “crushing tax increases” when they know full well that more revenue, increased taxes are a must have. They know full well to pay down the mountain of debt we need to increase revenue. It is plain and simple perfidy.


  13. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:39 pm:

    Revenue is a required element, not optional.

    Any Raunerite pretending Revenue is a give or ignoring that revenue isn’t required… they are NOT looking out for anyone in Illinois…

    … including taxpayers.


  14. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:39 pm:

    Rich is accused of once working for Madigan in 3, 2, …


  15. - Norseman - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:40 pm:

    Rauner will claim there’s an inverse relationship between the tax increase needed by Raunerite deficits and Dem deficits.

    Of course it will be balone, but so is almost everything said by this administration.

    P.S. It’s funny that McSweeney, Rep. We Don’t Need No Stinkin Taxes, is highlighting this disaster his hero caused aided an abetted by the GOP caucuses.


  16. - Skeptic - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:40 pm:

    “Kind of reminds me of the cuts vs increase argument. One persons cut is another’s increase.” Or if you recall the Rauner logic that by keeping the income tax at 5% instead of letting it drop to 3.5% you were raising taxes by 67%.


  17. - Norseman - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:42 pm:

    Madigan and the McSweeney’s he owns.


  18. - Huh? - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:42 pm:

    Next bond down grade in 3, 2, 1 … and 1.4% will say that it isn’t his fault and promptly blame Madigan.


  19. - Louis Capricious - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:43 pm:

    It’s no accident that here we are two weeks after this budget was approved and we’re relying on the AP to report on an unpublished COGFA analysis so that the public can get a clue about just how egregiously out of balance this budget truly is.

    The void of information is by design.

    Rauner on June 30:

    “This is not a balanced budget.”

    and

    “I will not sign off on an unbalanced budget.”


  20. - Anon221 - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:45 pm:

    It’s not as if numbers haven’t been crunched and reasonable fixes given. No one is going to like a tax hike, citizen or business, but we were on the path to fiscal responsibility in 2014. A kicked can eventually ends up crushed, and Rauner has no plans for a recycling effort. It’s going to have to come from the ILGA- both sides!

    http://www.ctbaonline.org/reports/it-all-about-revenue-common-sense-solution-illinois%E2%80%99-fiscal-solvency


  21. - AC - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:49 pm:

    We will look back fondly on the days when we had a 5% tax rate, the much smaller bill backlog we had back then, and the services we were able to provide. No one is being helped by this fiscal madness as near as I can tell, unless you count bond buyers. I have no doubt the unbalanced Democratic budget, as flawed as it was, would’ve still been better than the impasse and the stopgap budget.


  22. - DuPage Saint - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 3:54 pm:

    Figures don’t lie but liers figure


  23. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:00 pm:

    How is self-described “salesman” Bruce Rauner gonna sell this one?


  24. - Norseman - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:03 pm:

    === How is self-described “salesman” Bruce Rauner gonna sell this one? ===

    With several $million and a whole lot of baloney.


  25. - JS Mill - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:04 pm:

    Madigan and the spreadsheets he controls!


  26. - anon - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:07 pm:

    I’d like to hear the Hon. Dave McSweeney explain how the budget should be balanced without new taxes.


  27. - Sir Reel - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:18 pm:

    Looks like the stopgap budget isn’t stopping the gap.


  28. - Rod - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:21 pm:

    anon if you listen carefully Rep McSweeney explains how a tax increase can be avoided even in this very bad situation. http://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2016/07/05/opponents-state-stopgap-budget-explain-their-votes


  29. - Norseman - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:25 pm:

    === anon if you listen carefully Rep McSweeney explains how a tax increase can be avoided even in this very bad situation. ===

    Anon, try not to laugh to hard while listening to it.


  30. - Dee Lay - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:25 pm:

    Is one of the statehouse reporter actually going to call out Rauner on this or are they going to let him walk away like the Trump stuff?


  31. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:27 pm:

    ==no one is being helped by this fiscal madness unless you count the bond buyers==

    And there you have it. Someone is profiting mightily by others’ suffering. Follow the money to see why this is being allowed to happen. Just imagine what could happen if the income tax was lowered to 1%? What a field day for investors!


  32. - JS Mill - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:30 pm:

    From Rep Ives -”Budgets set priorities and tell you what’s the most important thing you have to fund. All this vote did was set up a tax increase.”

    So, social services, educatio, and protecting our most vulnerable, those people that cannot protect themsleves are not important?

    Talk about setting yourself up for questions in a future election. I would hammer her relentlessly with her comments.

    Adding, if the budget is $7 billion unbalanced (more like $8 billion) why only a $5 billion tax increase. Apparently West Point does not have a strong math program.


  33. - Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:32 pm:

    The consequences will be mass migration out of state of tax payers and business, who will want to preserve their income from much higher taxes, and a state that will be much more in dire financial status!


  34. - illinois bob - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:44 pm:

    Gosh…with all this dysfunction and incompetence going on I sure do hope my house sells fast so that I can get back to the enlightened functioning government in Arizona…LOL.

    Illinois is run like a movie with an “idiot plot”, like those teenage slasher films. If ONE person does a sensible and logical thing, the problem is over and the movie ends. I don’t think this “Illinois movie” will end well..


  35. - Demoralized - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:48 pm:

    ==I sure do hope my house sells fast so that I can get back to the enlightened functioning government in Arizona==

    So do we


  36. - Hit or Miss - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:49 pm:

    ===The consequences will be mass migration out of state of tax payers and business, who will want to preserve their income from much higher taxes===

    Can I assume then that the way to keep tax payers and business from moving out of state is to cut spending by $7B, or is it $8B, and thus reach a balanced budget?


  37. - Bigtwich - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:49 pm:

    Anonymous, there is a song in The Pirates of Penzance with the lyrics,

    Then do not stay!

    Then why this delay

    Yes but you don’t go!


  38. - Leading InDecatur - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:53 pm:

    Gee, iBob, you better hurry. I hear Arizona is going Blue this November.


  39. - PublicServant - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:54 pm:

    An 8 billion dollar deficit and the decimation of social services and higher education?

    Thanks Bruce.

    The taxpayers of Illinois.

    #winning


  40. - quixotic paul - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 5:51 pm:

    COGFA Excel file entry gives “Resulting Defecit.” Hopefully, they are better at math than spelling.


  41. - Union thug - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 6:10 pm:

    Aparently i need to get a refund from college and HS. None of them taught me the super rich business man math that shows 8 is lower than 7….


  42. - DuPage - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 8:14 pm:

    Rauner proves once again he failed 3rd grade math.


  43. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Jul 15, 16 @ 8:34 am:

    I believe that voting for a tax increase is a huge risk if not politically suicidal in many districts, and for the governor’s job. Perhaps a governor or state rep better bring back something substantial to even begin assuaging angry voters.

    There are doable things, such as more workers comp reform and property tax freeze. What can be done to bring in adequate revenue while shifting costs more away from property taxes? What can be done to control costs without decimating union rights (no bargaining for wages)? Voters want a millionaire surcharge. MMJ expansion (more illnesses, fewer restrictions) probably won’t happen.

    /wishin’


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* The Waukegan City Clerk was railroaded
* Whatever happened, the city has a $40 million budget hole it didn't disclose until now
* Manar gives state agencies budget guidance: Cut, cut, cut
* Roundup: Ex-Chicago Ald. Danny Solis testifies in Madigan corruption trial
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
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