* A new online Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll of all 50 states found these results for Illinois…
All four candidates qualified for the ballot in Illinois.
* Three caveats. This is an online survey of registered (instead of likely) voters going all the way back to August 9th…
The new poll was conducted online as part of SurveyMonkey’s 2016 Election Tracking project, which recruits respondents from the large number people who take polls on the company’s do-it-yourself survey platform, roughly three million each day. A subsample of respondents to this range of surveys — which includes formal and informal polls of community groups, companies, churches and other organizations — were invited to participate in a second survey with the prompt, “Where do you stand on current events? Share your opinion.” The survey was not advertised on any website, so individuals could not “click-in” in an effort to influence results. A survey invitation could be used only once.
From Aug. 9 to Sept. 1, the survey asked the sample of 74,886 registered voters about their presidential support, including between 546 and 5,147 respondents in each state. The final sample was weighted to the latest Census Bureau benchmarks for the population of registered voters in each state.
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 10:38 am:
Woooohoooo!!!! Looks like Stein will hit the 5% threshold for public funding. That’s why I’m pulling for her. It’s not to win. It’s to build progressive third party capacity. Baby steps towards challenging neo-liberalism.
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 10:39 am:
In the four-way race, Trump is still four points above the Keyes Line (my personal measure of Illinois’ Any-Candidate-with-an-R electorate).
– MrJM
- illini - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 10:49 am:
I have often wondered how the online surveys were conducted. Thanks for the details.
- Anonymouth - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 10:52 am:
=== Woooohoooo!!!! Looks like Stein will hit the 5% threshold for public funding. That’s why I’m pulling for her. It’s not to win. It’s to build progressive third party capacity. Baby steps towards challenging neo-liberalism. ===
Be careful for what you wish for. Remember what the tea party did to the Republican Party.
- Piece of Work - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 10:53 am:
Heard Stein yesterday, she sounds like Bernie, giveaway, giveaway, giveaway. Yep, that is practical for an economy nearing $20 trillion in debt.
Illinois is a given for HRC, but Trump is closing the lead and doing well in some key battleground states. The tide is a changin!
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 11:00 am:
It’s a sad reflection on Illinois that Trump is above 20%.
- Allen D - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 11:04 am:
and another poll …. since Trump has been running , almost every one has been wrong… I think the reason is that many are going to vote for him but will not publically state it… As a country they/we are ready for change from the intrenched political dogma candidates. Good luck Donald rest assured many are behind you to carry you past Hillary in Nov.
- Allen D - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 11:05 am:
we will just wait and see come Nov…
- Skeptic - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 11:07 am:
“the Keyes Line” is that the Mendoza line of Illinois politics?
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 11:19 am:
- we will just wait and see come Nov… -
By all means. Please check back in November and let us know how that goes.
- Huh? - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 11:53 am:
Won’t vote for clinton or trump. Not sure which of the other candidates will get my vote.
- GlimmerGirl - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 1:25 pm:
Waiting for Kasich in 2020!
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 2:03 pm:
“and another poll …. since Trump has been running , almost every one has been wrong…”
This is factually incorrect.
Of the 549 polls in the fivethirtyeight national primary polling database taken after he entered the race on June 16, Trump led in 500. That’s Trump leading in the GOP primary in 91 percent of polls. (In the polls collected by Huffington Post Pollster, Trump lead in 94 percent.) Trump led in 75 percent of the polls taken in July of 2015, and his poll numbers just rose from there.
The accuracy of the polls was also reflected in state polling, e.g. Trump was ahead in 49 of the 50 polls of Florida taken after he entered the race.
Since Trump has been running, almost every poll has been correct.
And the accuracy of Trump’s primary polling isn’t only of historical interest.
During the primaries, Trump’s backers repeatedly claimed that he was changing the electorate by energizing a new cohort of supporters who hadn’t turned out for previous Republican candidates. But in state after state, the election day results closely mirrored the most recent quality polling results.
Those polling results immediately prior to state primaries were based on ‘likely voters’ — and those polls matched the election day results because ‘likely voters’ were the ones who showed up on election day. The notion that Trump was bringing in new people was a persistent myth, but it was debunked in state after state.
And now, Trump’s supporters are peddling a similar myth in the general election: “The pollsters aren’t talking to Trump’s voters!” But the pollsters are doing exactly what they did with great accuracy in the primaries, i.e. they are determining the electoral preferences of ‘likely voters’.
Trump is losing poll after poll because most ‘likely voters’ do not want Donald Trump to be President of the United States. And if Trump loses in November, it will be for exactly the same reason.
– MrJM
- Joed beard - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 3:47 pm:
Illinois is already penciled in for Hillary so it really doesn’t matter. It’s those handful of states that could go either way. That is the election.
- Piece of Work - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 4:19 pm:
MrJM—-You may want to check the recent CNN and Rasmussen polls.
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Sep 6, 16 @ 5:39 pm:
I saw it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/
– MrJM