Since his inauguration, Gov. Bruce Rauner has consciously aped Washington, D.C.’s notoriously noxious battle to “win” the daily media spin cycle. The Republican has a set base of talking points based on tried and true poll-tested topics, and he rarely if ever deviates.
While Chicago suffered through its most violent summer in decades, the governor routinely focused his public comments on term limits - a not so subtle dig at the horribly unpopular Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan’s decades-long tenure, but an issue without hope of passage and irrelevant to some very serious and immediate crises, like the one pummeling our state’s largest city.
More bad economic or fiscal news? Rauner reliably trots out a vague promise of “reforms”— swearing that the Democratic leaders have promised to take them up just as soon as the campaign is over, even though his reforms would mean eviscerating the Democrats’ chief political allies (labor unions and trial lawyers) and Senate President John Cullerton has denied any such offer was ever made.
The nuclear dumpster fire that is the presidential campaign? The governor says he is simply too focused on reforming Illinois to care, or even to share who he might be voting for.
And now one of Rauner’s closest allies, the far right Illinois Policy Institute, is producing a campaign-style “documentary” about Madigan, just like similar dark money groups in D.C. have been nauseatingly churning out for years.
It’s no surprise that this movie fits in neatly with Rauner’s entire campaign strategy. Since early June, the Republicans have aired millions of dollars’ worth of television and radio ads and sent out countless mailers all designed to tie Democratic legislators and candidates to Madigan. Almost every dime of their funding for those attacks has come from Gov. Rauner (and yet, Rauner has repeatedly insisted that he’s not involved, other than to write a few checks).
It’s all one big thing. All Madigan, all the time.
And while Gov. Rauner has brought Washington’s never-ending campaign to Illinois’ executive branch, he also has a similarly tiny list of accomplishments to show for it. His administration has so far been little more than a frantic exercise in treading water until his chief nemesis can finally be vanquished, or at least brought to heel.
But this isn’t a completely new development. We’re already familiar with some of this in Illinois.
Speaker Madigan has been doing something similar for years, albeit on a much smaller, less obviously dramatic, less technologically advanced and less expensive scale.
His House chamber’s agenda is almost entirely organized around making sure that Madigan gets his more vulnerable incumbents reelected. And those vulnerable members are advised to take whatever positions are necessary to win reelection (including fanning the already intense flames of hate against Madigan’s home town of Chicago). There was a time when Madigan had a specific “theme” for each legislative week, only voting on bills that matched the weekly issue. He even at one point tried his hand at (ahem) publishing a Statehouse newsletter.
Madigan has refused to discuss any significant deal on the governor’s Turnaround Agenda, sticking closely to his talking points that Rauner is “operating in the extreme,” even though Madigan has often supported legislation in the past that unions didn’t love.
Madigan won’t budge this time because Rauner’s overt hostility has sent all those unions running to the speaker with wide open checkbooks and huge lists of precinct workers. There’s simply no political advantage to compromise, unless Rauner’s gamble pays off and he successfully makes Madigan the big issue of the year and Madigan loses a bunch of seats.
Otherwise, we may not see a deal during the “lame duck” session after the election and the impasse will likely drag on. If there is no progress, Rauner will undoubtedly make his entire 2018 reelection campaign about Madigan. But next time, it won’t be a few tens of millions of dollars like this year. It’ll be real money. Maybe $100 million.
And, unless Hillary Clinton manages to lose the presidential race, the governor’s reelection campaign will occur during yet another Democratic midterm election, which will make it that much easier to get his anti-Madigan message through to voters. (One of Rauner’s many valid and understandable reasons for refusing to give any overt public aid or comfort to Trump is that a Trump win would devastate Rauner’s reelection chances.)
This battered, much-maligned state shouldn’t have to endure this agony, but here we are, like it or not.
- paddyrollingstone - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 9:48 am:
All politics being local, and at the risk of heresy, I would take a Trump win (with a D Senate, as unlikely as that is), just so we could send the Governor out on a rail in 2018. I am only half-joking.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 9:57 am:
===And while Gov. Rauner has brought Washington’s never-ending campaign to Illinois’ executive branch, he also has a similarly tiny list of accomplishments to show for it.===
Thanks for mentioning that. The partisan win-the-news-cycle nonsense means nothing gets accomplished. When government, as an institution, no longer functions as a means to help solve problems, we get the cynicism from voters that is all too common, especially today.
We need to reject that here, before it cripples Springfield the way it has crippled Washington.
- RNUG - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:06 am:
== … that a Trump win would devastate Rauner’s reelection chances. ==
Hence Rauner proves he is just another run of the mill politician, only in it for himself (and his goals).
- Langhorne - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:21 am:
Rauner would rather fight than govern.
Starve the beast. Will one or more universities go under?
Sadly, i dont see a real budget under this governor. Ever.
Nov, dec, he will be absolutly shocked there is no grand bargain.
- Big Muddy - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:23 am:
I’m a Republican that is voting for Hillary. Why? 2018 state races. Her Presidency sets up a HUGE backlash vote in 2018 and Illinois will feel the effects all the way down the ballot. Do I want her as President? No. Am I willing to let her wallow in an ineffective office to help Illinois break free?? HECK YES!!
- Anon - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:26 am:
Great article, Rich. The ending creates some real dilemmas for me. Do I dislike Rauner enough to vote for Trump? If Trump is right-to-work too, will he appoint someone to SCOTUS who’ll overturn Abboud so it doesn’t matter if Rauner loses? But I suppose it doesn’t matter since we know Trump won’t win IL anyway.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:30 am:
If Rauner governed, he would have something to show for the past 21 months. He would be a viable state leader with credibility. Voters could see that siding with him wasn’t abandoning functioning government.
Rauner has failed to govern. He wasted his mandate. He burned every bridge. He made us poorer. We are deeper in debt than before. His reforms can never offset the prices we’ve paid function or his partisanship and malfeasance.
All he has to justify support is a boogeyman with the political support Rauner needed. Rauner’s obsession is unbalanced. Rauner’s constant victimization by this boogeyman belittles a governor and administration.
Rauner is headed for a total loss.
Good riddance.
- TR - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:38 am:
“…even though Madigan has often supported legislation in the past that unions didn’t love.”
I keep coming back to this. A shrewd Republican governor would have seen Madigan’s recent battles with AFSCME and the teacher’s unions as an opportunity to triangulate his foes. A deal with Madigan might have provided a road map to some collective bargaining reforms for government workers and/or perhaps charter school expansion. A capital bill that took care of Madigan’s friends in the trades (always a priority to the Speaker,) could have been paired with workers comp reform.
Instead, Rauner turned to Ken Dunkin. ‘Nuff said.
- RNUG - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 10:43 am:
- Big Muddy -
In my opinion Rauner is going down in 2018 regardless of what happens nationally. His money won’t save him.
The ONLY way Rauner survives is if he stops campaigning, drops the TA and union attacks, strikes a pragmatic deal with Madigan, and actually starts governing.
Today, from where I’m sitting, the Cubs have a better chance of winning the World Series back to back than Rauner has of succeeding.
- @MisterJayEm - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 11:09 am:
“What’s Rauner’s plan after November?”
Occam’s Razor tells us that Rauner’s post-election plan will be the same plan that he’s had since 2012: Deliberately inflicting pain as a partisan wedge.
Rauner said that was what he was going to do. Then he did it. And then he did it again.
And again.
And again.
The people of Illinois have every reason to believe that Rauner will continue to hammer the needy and those who serve them after November.
– MrJM
- Anonymous - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 11:42 am:
== The transformation is almost complete ==
Whoa. For a minute, thought you meant the swift transformation of IL’s political environment into that of a third-world county! Certainly could fit.
- sal-says - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 11:44 am:
Ooops. Third-world COUNTRY.
- Rod - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 11:45 am:
It’s easy to agree with Rich about the few achievements of the Governor’s administration. But this passage: “While Chicago suffered through its most violent summer in decades, the governor routinely focused his public comments on term limits - a not so subtle dig at the horribly unpopular Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan’s decades-long tenure, but an issue without hope of passage and irrelevant to some very serious and immediate crises, like the one pummeling our state’s largest city,” is harder to accept because I am not sure what the Governor can do except possibly ship more money to Chicago which would not go over very well outside the City.
If the Governor was to support every measure supported by gun control advocates it’s unlikely it would have much of an impact on the killings here in Chicago in the next few years. If the Governor ordered in the National Guard Even if the 33rd Military Police Battalion could be moved in mass from the Bloomington Armory into Englewood it’s not likely to contain the murders, or he possibly could move a handful more of the 1,800 state police to Chicago (total police number comes from FOP Trooper’s Lodge 41). The murder cycle will most likely have to burn its self out, sadly as it has happened historically over and over again. There are many academic articles on this, one was written in 1998 titled “Explaining recent trends in US Homicide rates.” (http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol88/iss4/2/ ) The article puts forward every theory imaginable for upticks and down ticks in the rates, none are conclusively linked to policing or gun laws. This article discusses the current uptick in murders https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/249895.pdf and discusses possible reasons for the increase including the so called Ferguson effect, no expiation is conclusive.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 12:31 pm:
Having Madigan to try to kick around is a blessing for Rauner, because Madigan is a distraction and excuse for him. Rauner can keep hanging on to his anti-union, anti-prevailing wage demands as long as Madigan is around to blame for everything. Maybe Rauner should thank him.
- James Knell - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 12:33 pm:
I’m with Vanillaman, @MisterJayEm, & RNUG. But I’ll add this, if the Dems get to 71 not including Drury, and can’t either get a deal with Rauner or pass their own plan, people will get frustrated and 2018 could get very ugly for the Dems with a bad national current, demoralized IL Dems, and a Quinn rematch. Let’s not go there.
- JS Mill - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 12:57 pm:
@Rod- “I am not sure what the Governor can do except possibly ship more money to Chicago which would not go over very well outside the City.”
There is that other thingy that he can do, and that is act like a leader and lead.
How about bringing human resources together like community leaders, political leaders, law enforcement etc. not money) and work toward a new approach?
I mean, I am not the governor but that is just and off the cuff thought.
That is what I do when we have a problem, get as many sharp minds together and try to come up with a solution.
Or, you can call people names and gin up the base.
Only one of the two have any chance at positively impacting the problem.
- Big Muddy - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 1:38 pm:
RNUG,
I have printed off your comment and will be keeping it in a safe place until mid-November 2018. Rauner will win and I certainly hope the Cubs go back-to-back!
- LessAnon? - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 1:41 pm:
As much as it might pain me to say it, this state DESERVES to endure this agony. No one else voted these people into the positions of power they are in, where they have mismanaged us nearly into oblivion. I would disagree on that point. You can’t vote for your crooked guy and expect the system to work anyway, because everyone else is doing the exact same thing. Lots of years of unrestrained spending, pension holidays and refusal to consider long-term revenue got us here. All done by people the People of Illinois voted in.
- RNUG - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 2:47 pm:
- Big Muddy -
As a long time Cubs fan, I hope they do too !
- Mama Retired - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 5:24 pm:
Rauner won’t stop hammering Madigan or the unions even if Hillary wins. If Trump wins, he will get rid of all union right to bargain at the federal level. Trump is very much anti-union.
- peon - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 5:25 pm:
Perhaps it is my low intelligence, but this blame Madigan strategy never made the slightest sense to me, not because Madigan isn’t unpopular state-wide, but because the point escapes me.
Since January 2015 Rauner’s approval ratings have dropped from above 50% to the low 30%s. That is all this has achieved. At the end, Rauner will join Madigan at below 20% approval, but no-one will be any closer to a union-busting turn-around agenda.
- Mama Retired - Monday, Sep 26, 16 @ 5:26 pm:
That would be awesome if the Cubs go back-to-back!