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Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The governor made some appointments this afternoon (click here), but I’m told there will be no bill signings/vetoes this afternoon, so I’m done. Merle will play us out

Sometimes I think about leaving,
Do a little bummin’ around

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Toto, we’re not in Bucktown anymore

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new radio ad starts out with a man talking in a thick southern drawl and proudly proclaiming “All my life I’ve only moved one mile.” The man says he’s hunted “for years” with the candidate he supports and that the politician “fights” to protect the 2nd Amendment.

Then, the President of Citizens for Life PAC calls the candidate a “champion for pro-life issues and someone that we can trust.”

A woman named Julie says the candidate fights for tougher laws against sexual predators.

And a southern Illinois mayor, who says to listeners that he’s a Republican, vouches for the candidate as “one of us. He knows our values.”

* Who is this candidate? Why, none other than state Rep. John Bradley, a Marion Democrat

To be clear, this is common practice in Downstate races. It’s just sooooo southern I thought I’d post it for your listening enlightenment.

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Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x2 - AFSCME responds - Rauner response *** Split decision on AFSCME impasse case

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The administrative law judge has sent a split recommendation to the Illinois Labor Relations Board regarding the dispute over whether AFSCME and the Rauner administration are legally at impasse on contract negotiations. The Rauner administration claims they are at impasse, AFSCME denies it. There’s something in this recommendation for both sides.

First, a bit of reasoning

Though the Board could find that there was impasse on one of the three critical issues, and that under the NLRB precedent, this would presumably allow the State to implement its entire last, best, and final offer, I find that this remedy is, like the standard remedy urged by the Union, extreme when applied to this case. The parties were at impasse on a large number of packages, but they were not at impasse on several others. If the State were able to implement its entire last, best, and final offer, the implications and impact would be so enormous that, when applied to this case, it would be destructive of the collective bargaining process and not serve the statutory mission of the Board.

* Some background

After spending extensive time with the factual and legal matters raised in this case, I am left with the firm conviction that both parties entered negotiations with the intent to bargain and bargain hard. I do not imagine that an objective reviewer of this record will come away with a belief that either side acted as in a completely virtuous manner. However, like all things, good faith bargaining is a sliding scale with some lawful conduct looking less like good faith but not necessarily falling so deficient as to be unlawful bad faith bargaining. Certainly, neither party went out of their way to make negotiations easier on the other or to be overly accommodating, nor is this required of the parties under the law.

Instead, these negotiations reflected a battle mindset on both sides of the table, with each willing to do what it takes to achieve its bargaining goals. However, this mindset does not mean that either side was not sincerely seeking to reach agreement. The Union clearly did not share the State’s interest in having the contract settled expeditiously. The Union contends that the State was unlawfully intransigent on its bargaining goals; accordingly, the Union looks with indifference at the number of proposals the State withdrew and the number of proposals on which the parties reached agreement. The State urges that it came in to bargaining looking for a negotiated agreement, but the Union largely failed to respond to proposals in a way that would actually bring the parties closer together. Despite their many differences in philosophy and approach, I find that record before me, taken as a whole, reflects that each side sincerely hoped to reach agreement, though they had vastly different views of what that agreement should look like and had varying levels of optimism about whether they would actually be successful.

* The decision, such as it is

Therefore, I am resistant to accept either of the parties’ lawful, yet extreme, positions on remedy. Instead, I recommend that the Board adopt an alternate approach. I recognize that a decision on whether to adopt an alternative remedy is a policy decision that is within the exclusive province of the Board. Some support exists for an alternative remedy in the Board’s precedent, specifically in cases where, as here, that alternative remedy accomplishes the Board’s statutory mission to promote labor harmony and “to provide peaceful and orderly procedures for protection of the rights of all.” […]

I recommend the Board adopt a modified remedy, namely partial implementation. Specifically, I recommend that the Board allow the State to implement the packages on which the parties have reached impasse and for which there exists no other impediment to implementation: Subcontracting; Vacation, Holiday Scheduling, and Leaves of Absence; DOC/DJJ Roll Call (Definition of Terms, Articles V, XII, XVII, XIX & XX); Mandatory Overtime; and Management Rights and Check-off/Fair Share packages. Of course, nothing would prevent the State from continuing to bargain over these issues if it so chose.

On packages on which the parties are not at impasse or that the State either failed to provide information or provide the Union sufficient time to respond once receiving the information, I recommend the Board order the State to provide the requested information and send the parties back to the table for further bargaining and resolution of issues precluding implementation. Those packages include the following: Wages and Steps, Appendix A – Health Insurance, Layoff, Outstanding Economics, Health and Safety Outstanding Issues, and Semi- Automatic/Classification In-Series Advancement.

Awaiting response from both sides.

* The next step…

Pursuant to Section 1200.135 of the Board’s Rules, parties may file exceptions to the Administrative Law Judge’s Recommended Decision and Order in briefs in support of those exceptions no later than 30 days after service of this Recommendation. Parties may file responses to exceptions and briefs in support of the responses no later than 15 days after service of the exceptions. In such responses, parties that have not previously filed exceptions may include cross-exceptions to any portion of the Administrative Law Judge’s Recommendation. Within seven (7) days from the filing of cross-exceptions, parties may file cross-responses to the cross-exceptions… If no exceptions have been filed within the 30-day period, the parties will be deemed to have waived their exceptions.

*** UPDATE 1 ***  Press release…

The following statement can be attributed to Catherine Kelly, Press Secretary for Governor Rauner:

“We appreciate that the Administrative Law Judge concluded that we have been bargaining in good faith for a fair deal on behalf of taxpayers. We are reviewing her opinion to evaluate the next steps as the rest of the agreed-to process continues.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** Council 31…

An administrative law judge of the Illinois Labor Relations Board has dismissed the Rauner Administration’s complaint against AFSCME Council 31 and upheld much of the union’s cross-complaint against the administration.

The ALJ rightly rejected the Rauner Administration’s core contention, finding that the parties are not at impasse on the fundamental issues of wages and health care. She said that the administration has refused to provide information to AFSCME that the union needs to develop proposals and said they must do so. She recommended that the labor board order the state to resume bargaining on these and other issues, and to do so in good faith.

In short, she said that the Rauner Administration should “cease and desist from failing to bargain collectively in good faith with [AFSCME]” and “Upon request, bargain collectively in good faith with the union over the terms of provisions of a successor agreement”. (***see citation below)

“We are pleased that today’s recommendation underlines what AFSCME has been saying all along,” AFSCME Council 31 Executive Director Roberta Lynch said. “There is no impasse on key issues, and the parties should get back to the bargaining table to resolve them.”

There are also points on which the union disagrees with the hearing officer’s findings. For example, AFSCME does not believe that the parties are at impasse on subcontracting and other issues. The union will continue to review the recommended decision, which is voluminous and detailed at more than 400 pages long.

“Ever since Governor Rauner’s representatives broke off negotiations with our union back in January and walked away from the bargaining table, AFSCME has repeatedly made clear that we want to reach a fair agreement and we are prepared to do the hard work of compromise to make that possible,” Lynch said.

In contrast, the Rauner Administration for eight months has refused to even meet with the union bargaining committee. Instead Governor Rauner wants the unilateral power to impose his demands, forcing public service workers in state government to work under his unfair terms or go out on strike.

Both parties now have the right to file written “exceptions” on points of disagreement with the recommended decision, as well as replies to the other party’s exceptions. Those filings and the recommended decision all go before the full labor board, which has indicated it could consider them and act on a final decision in November.

“We hope the labor board’s final ruling will affirm the hearing officer’s recommended order to resume negotiations,” Lynch said. “But there is no need to wait—Governor Rauner should direct his representatives back to the bargaining table now, to work with AFSCME and develop a compromise agreement that is fair to all.”

***FOOTNOTE:

From the recommended decision and order [https://www.illinois.gov/ilrb/decisions/decisionorders/Documents/S-CB-16-017rdo.pdf, pages 248-9]:

    It is hereby ordered that the State of Illinois Department of Central Management Services, its officers and agents shall:

    A. Cease and desist from:
    1. Failing to bargain collectively in good faith with the American Federation
    of State, County and Municipal Employees (Union) by failing to provide
    requested information;
    2. Failing to bargain collectively in good faith with the Union by declaring
    impasse on packages where the parties are not at impasse;
    3. Failing to bargain collectively in good faith with the Union by declaring impasse on packages when the State has failed to provide requested information or failed to provide the Union with a sufficient opportunity to
    review and respond to the information; and
    4. Failing and refusing to bargain collectively in good faith with the Union,
    in any like or related manner, interfering with, restraining or coercing its
    employees in the exercise of the rights guaranteed them in the Act; …

    B. Take the following affirmative actions designed to effectuate the policies of the Act:
    1. As soon as practicable, provide the Union with the following information…
    2. Upon request, bargain collectively in good faith with the Union over the terms of provisions of a successor agreement

  85 Comments      


Minor drug offender punished by prison after reporting rape

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) has agreed to pay $450,000 to a man punished and humiliated by prison officials after he reported his Logan Correctional Center cellmate had sexually and physically assaulted him.

The James Fontano v. Godinez settlement, which was announced Friday, is believed to be among the largest payments made for a prison retaliation case. Fontano was represented by attorneys from the Roderick and Solange MacArthur Justice Center and the Uptown People’s Law Center.

“Whether in prison, in the Catholic church, in a school or anywhere else, any person who reports a sexual assault deserves to be treated with concern and respect,” said Locke E. Bowman, Executive Director of the MacArthur Justice Center. “Those in charge must investigate the allegations fairly and aggressively. Sexual predators must be brought to justice.

“The response of prison officials to James Fontano in this case is a model of what not to do,” Bowman said. “Instead of concern, James was met with derision and disbelief. The investigation was designed to cover up the rape, not to hold the perpetrator accountable. We need to ask: Just how prevalent is rape within Illinois’ prisons?”

Fontano, who was imprisoned in IDOC for eight months on a minor drug offense, served the majority of his sentence at the Logan Correctional Center in Lincoln.

Fontano was celled with an older, physically larger and stronger prisoner serving a lengthy sentence for armed robbery. In August 2011, shortly before Fontano’s scheduled release date, Fontano’s cellmate repeatedly raped Fontano over the course of two nights while he and Fontano were locked together in the cell they shared.

Fearing that the assaults would escalate and with nowhere else to turn, Fontano reported the assaults to prison authorities. Although Fontano’s report was detailed, graphic and credible, prison officials responded by punishing Fontano, not his assailant. Fontano was forced to spend the rest of his prison sentence in segregation, purportedly because he had lied about being raped.

Eventually, Fontano’s report was corroborated by a finding that his cellmate’s DNA was present on the rear inside panel of Fontano’s underwear. Even with this information, prison officials refused to rescind Fontano’s punishment.

Fontano sued Alex Dawson, the former warden of Logan Correctional Center, and Kevin Standley, the IDOC investigator who recommended that Fontano be disciplined. The suit, filed in the federal court in Springfield, claimed that Dawson and Standley retaliated against Fontano for exercising his First Amendment right to report the rape.

“Men in prison learn quickly there are two things you don’t want to be known for,” said Alan Mills, Executive Director of the Uptown People’s Law Center. “First, if other prisoners believe you are a snitch, you are in danger of being beaten, stabbed and worse. Second, if you are viewed as a weakling and easy mark to be used for sex by another man, you will always be in danger of a sexual assault. Those are the reasons – fear of being known as a snitch and weakling – James endured two sexual and physical assaults and decided to seek help when he could break away during the third attack.”

“Immediately after James reported the rapes, prison officials punished James, threatened him with extra time in prison and pushed him to withdraw his report,” said Sheila Bedi, an attorney with the MacArthur Justice Center. “Enduring this kind of punishment for reporting his rape came at a great cost to James.

“This settlement should serve to motivate IDOC to change its practices,” Bedi added. “IDOC needs to do all it can to end sexual assault behind bars, to protect the men and women locked in state prisons, and to encourage victims to report sexual assaults.”

A living hell.

* AP

A Department of Corrections spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did an attorney who represented the prison officials, including former warden Alex Dawson and Kevin Standley, the IDOC investigator assigned to look into the rape allegations.

I’m glad they settled this case. Let’s hope this stuff is never repeated again.

  16 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your caption?…


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Stu stews over e-mail hed while CJ beats Bost to STL

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Stu Rothenberg in the Washington Post

Here is a scorecard of a few tiers of GOP-held House seats to watch over the next 2 1/2 months. They run from near certain Democratic takeovers to Democratic long-shot opportunities.

Should be a slam dunk. These Republican seats are likely to flip in November even if 2016 turns out to be a surprisingly disappointing year for Democrats. The districts are just too tough for GOP incumbents to hold in any presidential year.

Illinois 10, Bob Dold. Republican Dold is a strong incumbent who fits his district well. But he lost to Brad Schneider (D) in 2012 because of presidential turnout, and he will probably lose in another rematch. Of course, in a midterm with an unpopular Democratic president (like 2018?), don’t bet against Dold. He won in both 2010 and 2014.

* Schneider’s campaign then sent out an e-mail entitled: “ICYMI: Washington Post says Schneider a ‘Slam Dunk’ in IL-10.”

Rothenberg was not amused, pointing out that it wasn’t WaPo which made the claim, it was he who made the claim in WaPo.

* And then he continued

In this case, “should” is an auxiliary verb that, according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, expresses “what is probable or expected,” not what will or must happen.

Unless someone has a problem understanding the meaning of the word “is” – and I certainly understand that some people do – my intentions were quite clear.

The point of the column was to lay out a series of expectations to allow readers to follow along during the final months of the campaign to see how the fight for the House was playing out, not to predict, and certainly not to guarantee, which candidates were going to win.

The Schneider campaign press release did include two full paragraphs from my column which included the correct “Should be a slam dunk” language and even noted Dold’s greater chances in a midterm election. But that hardly makes up for the press release’s headline or lead paragraph, both of which are misleading or worse.

* In other campaign news, here’s a press release…

After being the first candidate in the 12th congressional district race against Congressman Mike Bost to air television ads in Southern Illinois, Democratic candidate CJ Baricevic will continue his advertising campaign by being the first candidate to air ads in the St. Louis media market, communicating to voters in the Metro East section of the congressional district.

The thirty-second ad “Working Families,” which began airing in the Paducah media market last week will begin airing on Monday on St. Louis stations. See ad: https://youtu.be/I6jywmTHJGE

The two sides are reportedly spending about $70k for a week of ads.

  4 Comments      


Giving him the benefit of the doubt

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* PolitiFact took this recent statement about Illinois Democrats (which he used constantly in 2014) by Gov. Bruce Rauner

“They are cutting our school funding. Four times in the last 10 years before we came into office.”

* Includes more detailed claims from the governor’s office…

Rauner’s office provided us with figures from the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget from FY 2000 to FY 2015 (the last year in which Illinois had a state budget) to illustrate the trend, and said the years referred to in the speech were FY 2010-FY 2013.

During those years, elementary and secondary education funding went from $7.32 billion to $6.55 billion.

Clearly there’s a decline in school funding over that period. But was it the result of “cutting,” as Rauner claims, or because federal stimulus money ended?

* Then compared it to the Civic Federation’s analysis from 2014…

General Funds spending on education in FY2010 is shown in budget documents as $7.3 billion. But that number includes $790.8 million in federal stimulus funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Some analysts might deduct that amount to maximize comparability, which would reduce the General Funds figure for FY2010 to $6.5 billion. Based on that calculation, General Funds spending on education increases by $358 million to $6.8 billion in FY2015. Similarly, budget documents in FY2009 show education spending at $7.4 billion, but that amount includes $1.0 billion of stimulus funding. Deducting that amount results in General Funds spending of $6.3 billion in FY2009 and an increase of $522 million to $6.8 billion in FY2015.

* Doesn’t include this handy Civic Federation chart, which clearly shows the state money increase

Last I checked, $10.4 billion was higher than $9.2 billion.

* And concludes

But in claiming that Democrats cut school spending in the final years of their hold on the governor’s office, Rauner resurrects an allegation that should have stayed buried after he won the election.

We rate this claim Mostly False.

Mostly?

If it ain’t a cut, it ain’t a cut.

  13 Comments      


Oppo dump!

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you want to see what stuff Republican Comptroller Leslie Munger might use to attack her Democratic opponent Susana Mendoza, click here. It’s a veritable cornucopia of OR. And it doesn’t even include the “She says Mike Madigan is her mentor” hit.

…Adding… A new one is here.

  35 Comments      


Durbin talks about his tavern-owning days

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* There was a big fire at Springfield’s Crows Mill Pub this week. The place was a regular hangout of mine back in the day when I was a student at Sangamon State. US Sen. Dick Durbin was one of its owners years before I got to town, but he and his partners created a venue that thrived through my early Springfield partying days. The SJ-R talked to Durbin about his memories of the place

In a telephone interview, Durbin said he was at an interesting point in his life when he was approached about investing in the Crows Mill and serving as its attorney, something he would not be paid for.

It was 1976, and he’d just lost a bid for an Illinois Senate seat to incumbent John Davidson, a Republican.

The building at the time housed the Navy Club in the basement. The pitch was to convert the space into a lunch spot, bar and live music venue. The appeal, as it is today, was its proximity to Sangamon State University (now the University of Illinois Springfield) and Lincoln Land Community College.

Durbin said they really tried to create a unique place. He also remembers that he and other owners were confident their business would be popular.

“We were certain the McDonald’s Corp. was going to buy us out,” Durbin joked.

Ultimately, the Crows Mill ended up being a “crash course” in running a business, he said. They had some success, but not at the level they envisioned, so they sold it after five years.

The current owner says he will gut the charred interior and eventually reopen. I wish him nothing but the best.

  12 Comments      


Mess with the bull…

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* When you refuse to do project labor agreements, stuff like this can happen

A strike at a construction site on the Jane Addams Tollway in Des Plaines orchestrated by a tollway board member could slow the long-awaited completion of the project.

International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 members said they would picket a tollway contractor, Stalworth Underground, starting Thursday night at the I-90 bridge over Oakton near Des Plaines.

Stalworth owes the union more than $40,000 from a grievance settlement, said James Sweeney, Local 150 president and a tollway director.

The massive rebuild and widening of I-90 between Elgin and O’Hare International Airport is on a tight time schedule and is supposed to wrap up at the end of 2016. […]

The picket isn’t the first salvo against the tollway since a new batch of directors appointed by Gov. Bruce Rauner voted in 2015 to nix a 21-year agreement requiring contractors to hire unions in exchange for guarantees of no strikes or walkouts.

* Meanwhile

More than 10,000 people are expected to participate in a Labor Day Parade that will celebrate unions in the 10th Ward.

The Saturday parade and festival, which will include representatives from more than 35 unions, was in part organized by Ald. Susan Sadlowski Garza (10th). The large celebration will show anti-union politicians that they can’t mess with the city and its working class people, Garza said.

“We got Bruce Rauner sitting in Springfield, waiting to pounce on labor unions. They want to take away collective bargaining and this, that and the other,” Garza said. “I’m hoping to send a message to Springfield that says, ‘Hey, Bruce Rauner, don’t screw with Chicago. Don’t screw with Illinois. Because labor is standing strong.’ “

  31 Comments      


S&P warns CPS about another downgrade

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Reuters

S&P Global Ratings warned on Thursday that the Chicago public school system’s B-plus credit rating could fall deeper into the junk level due to its “extremely weak” cash position.

“Unless (the Chicago Board of Education) achieves what we view as a credible and sustainable long-term solution to its financial pressures while continuing to demonstrate that it can fund its cash-flow needs, further downgrades are possible,” the credit rating agency said in a statement.

S&P affirmed a B-plus rating for the Chicago Public Schools’ (CPS) outstanding general obligation bonds and assigned the rating to $150 million of bonds the district privately placed with J.P. Morgan in late July. But that rating remained on S&P’s watch list for a potential downgrade over the coming months. […]

S&P said it could drop the rating multiple notches if CPS is unable to obtain credit lines to aid cash flow. A downgrade would also be likely if $215 million in state funding does not materialize, it added.

  5 Comments      


Today’s number: 304,000 jobs

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A Chicago Sun-Times editorial

Here’s a scary number for you: In the last 16 years, Illinois has lost 35 percent of its manufacturing jobs. That’s about 304,000 jobs, more than the population of any city in the state other than Chicago.

That number alone, cited by a business leader this week in a lunchtime speech before the City Club, tell the story of our state’s poor business climate and sputtering economy. It sounds an alarm. It reminds us once again — if anybody still needs reminding — that our elected officials have failed us miserably and time is running short to set things right. […]

Manufacturers “aren’t necessarily fleeing the state in droves, although many have left,” [IMA President Greg Baise] said. “Instead, when expanding, they do it in other states because they can be more successful.”

In a number of earlier editorials, we have placed much of the blame for our state’s political paralysis on Rauner. The new governor promised to roll right over the evil opposition — that would be House Speaker Mike Madigan — but never had the votes. We still put the bulk of the blame there. All that counterproductive tough talk has left Illinois with nothing but $10 billion in back bills.

But the governor no longer insists on most of his vaunted “turnaround agenda” of pro-business reforms before he’ll agree to a tax increase and other measures, and there is no doubt the Democrats can and should meet him part way. He is right that our state’s business climate is competitively weak. Give the guy something real. Further tweaks to worker’s comp — when and how much an employer must pay a worker who is hurt on the job — would be an excellent start.

Thoughts?

…Adding… Some of the more ridiculously partisan commenters here are forgetting something I posted just the other day from Baise’s speech

Just remember as you leave, in the last seven years….

    Wisconsin created 44,100 manufacturing jobs
    Ohio created 75,900 manufacturing jobs
    Indiana created 83,700 manufacturing jobs and
    Michigan created 171,300 manufacturing jobs.

Illinois created 4,600 jobs. Even Idaho created 9,100 manufacturing jobs. A state better known for its potato farms.

Idaho created twice as many manufacturing jobs.

Idaho.

  113 Comments      


How partisans internalize “facts”

Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ian Anson in the New Republic

In a recent paper published in Political Research Quarterly, I tested competing expectations about the ways media can convince partisans to engage in motivated reasoning. The study examines the conditions under which partisans internalize their preferred “facts.”

The Cooperative Congressional Election Study is a massive survey project put together by more than 50 research teams nationwide. I presented survey-takers with one of five randomly assigned articles about the economy during the 2014 wave of the study. These stories were designed to mimic the type of content they might see when visiting a partisan news source. Some of the articles presented readers with “just the (congenial) facts”: these survey-takers saw a news story showing either optimistic or gloomy economic data. Others saw stories that presented these facts paired with statements blaming or praising President Barack Obama for the trend. These latter treatments make survey-takers highly aware of the agenda of the story’s author – especially if they identify as partisans.

Just as expected, Republicans and Democrats in the study were most likely to learn from the news story when it reinforced their own worldview. Republican Reba believed the bad news, while Denny the Democrat believed the good news.

The surprising finding was that this pattern only held for the “just the facts” news stories – not the overtly partisan ones. In other words, partisans enjoy cheerleading for their party but are even more strongly affected by news stories that appear to be highly objective. When asked to report whether they thought the economy in the past year had gotten better or worse, partisans in these treatment conditions were significantly more likely than others to give the party-congenial response.

* And

In a second paper recently published in the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, I show that this is indeed the case: An analysis of a large number of public opinion polls reveals partisans tend to agree on the state of the stock market. The ubiquitousness of this economic indicator allows it to bypass even the most intense agenda-setting efforts.

We would normally expect partisans to feel the mental discomfort known as cognitive dissonance when knowledge of stock market performance conflicts with their biased economic judgments. As the stock market soars to record highs, this news conflicts with the idea that the economy is still stuck in post-Great Recession doldrums. Partisans should adjust their beliefs.

However, to echo the title of a recent paper by Danish political scientist Martin Bisgaard, I nevertheless show in survey analyses that “bias will find a way.” Partisans perform mental gymnastics by changing the way they think the economy works. When stock market performance runs in conflict with the partisan economic narrative, partisans become less likely to say the stock market matters at all for the broader economy.

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Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Friday, Sep 2, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Rauner dumps Quinn “staff assistants”

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Monique with the scoop

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration has issued layoff notices to 29 workers at the Illinois Department of Transportation, a move the governor’s office says is aimed at ridding the agency of patronage hires that flourished under his Democratic predecessors.

Rauner spokeswoman Catherine Kelly confirmed the layoff notices went out Thursday to employees classified as “staff assistants,” a special position created to hire hundreds of people without having to go through strict personnel procedures designed to keep politics out of most state hiring.

The patronage hires were the subject of a scathing report the state’s top ethics investigator issued in 2014. The probe found the lax rules had been in place since before ex-Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich took office in 2003, but determined that such hiring escalated during former Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration.

“The duration and pervasiveness of IDOT’s improper acts have undoubtedly denied countless qualified candidates the opportunity to lawfully obtain state employment on the basis of merit,” the report stated.

…Adding… Press release…

Governor Bruce Rauner today announced the state has reached a conclusion in the IDOT patronage hiring scandal that began under previous administrations. IDOT gave the remaining staff assistants layoff notices today.

“Our administration has put an end to the illegal patronage hiring that started under Blagojevich and continued under Quinn,” Governor Rauner said. “Since taking office, we have worked for taxpayers to ensure proper hiring at all of our state agencies. This is an additional step to restore citizens’ faith in state government so it works for them and not the political insiders.”

IDOT notified the remaining 29 staff assistants connected to the illegal patronage hiring scandal their last day with the agency will be September 15th. In 2014, an Executive Inspector General report found staff assistants at IDOT were illegally hired and then either transferred into protected government positions or allowed to perform job duties that had little or no relation to their actual job description. The previous administration attempted to lay off these employees, but the union representing the staff assistants sued the state to stop those proceedings. As a result of the settlement of the lawsuit, the 29 employees were notified today their services are no longer needed by the State of Illinois.

During the first month of his administration, Governor Rauner signed an Executive Order to publish all Rutan-exempt employees on the Illinois Transparency and Accountability Portal website in a direct response to the IDOT hiring scandal. In addition, he signed an Executive Order that removed the requirement that the Governor’s Office review and approve the hiring and promotion decisions of Rutan-covered positions. This Executive Order removed a level of bureaucracy in hiring civil-service positions and further protected the process from unlawful political influence.

  41 Comments      


Surprisingly good news in White Sox naming rights deal

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* So, the Sports Facility Authority gets a piece of the sponsorship action, finally. Good

The new naming rights deal for the publicly owned stadium where the White Sox play baseball is worth $25.1 million but will deliver no additional money to the team, documents associated with the agreement show.

The White Sox will receive only the remaining value of the original contract entered into with U.S. Cellular in 2003, which amounts to $20.4 million. The remaining $4.7 million will go to the state agency that serves as landlord of the ballpark, the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority.

The contract that will change the facility’s name to Guaranteed Rate Field runs through 2029. If the agreement is extended for a year, the authority would receive $6.4 million in all. The agency can use that money in any way it sees fit, according to general counsel Anthony J. O’Neill, who suggested it may be used to help retire debt.

The White Sox, Guaranteed Rate and U.S. Cellular have declined to discuss other financial details of the new contract, which requires U.S. Cellular to pay an undisclosed portion of the $20.4 million owed on the company’s 2003 agreement.

This stands in stark contrast to the goofy Bacardi at the Park deal that cost the taxpayers a small fortune.

  8 Comments      


Random thought

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Does it feel like Friday to you, too?

  36 Comments      


Today’s number: $250 million

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Eat your heart out, Rauner…


Yep, there it is.

* Or not…


The letter to the State Board of Elections explaining the typo is here.

  15 Comments      


Kinda like Dippin’ Dots

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Way too many people are pointing to “fully autonomous cars of the future” to argue against mass transit projects. It’s a silly argument for a lot of reasons, including the fact that mass transit prevents city streets from being flooded with even more automobiles. And then there’s this, from MIT Technology Review

BMW, Ford, and Uber have all recently said they plan to have “fully autonomous” cars ready to drive themselves on the road in 2021 (see “2021 May Be the Year of the Fully Autonomous Car”). Ford says its fleet of vehicles will lack steering wheels and offer a robotic taxi service.

But don’t expect to toss out your driver’s license in 2021. Five years isn’t long enough to create vehicles good enough at driving to roam extensively without human input, say researchers working on autonomous cars. They predict that Ford and others will meet their targets by creating small fleets of vehicles limited to small, controlled areas.

“Probably what Ford would do to meet their 2021 milestone is have something that provides low-speed taxi service limited to certain roads—and don’t expect it to come in the rain,” says Steven Shladover of the University of California, Berkeley, who has worked on automated driving for more than 20 years.

Shladover says many media outlets and members of the public are overinterpreting statements from Ford and other companies that are less specific than they appear. The dream of being able to have a car drive you wherever you want to go in the city, country, or continent remains distant, he says. “It ain’t going to be five years,” says Shladover. “The hype has gotten totally out of sync with reality.”

Alain Kornhauser, a Princeton professor and director of the university’s transportation program, also expects 2021’s vehicles to be very restricted. “By then we may be able to define [a] ‘fenced’ region of space where we can in fact let cars out there without a driver,” he says. “The challenge will be making that fenced-in area large enough so that it provides a valuable service.”

The other “challenge” for policymakers here and elsewhere will be fending off what are sure to be huge lobbying armadas for Google, Uber and the automakers which are going to demand that existing public transit and/or road funding be diverted or increased to construct those “fenced-in areas.”

[Hat tip: Duncan Black]

  20 Comments      


Your weekly Oscar the Puppy pic

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The little guy got a much-needed haircut this week…

  20 Comments      


Teachers union backs the incumbent underdog… again

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The Illinois Education Association (IEA) today endorsed Bob Dold for re-election due to his strong record on education that is directly impacting Illinois’ 10th District schools and students.

“We need more leaders in Congress like Bob Dold. Congressman Dold consistently reaches across the aisle and stands up for our schools and our students. Bob Dold fought for long-term funding for North Chicago Schools and he worked in a bi-partisan manner to pass the Every Student Succeeds Act, which will help local schools educate the children in their own communities. Bob has our strong recommendation,” said Kathi Griffin, IEA Vice-President.

“Education is the greatest source of opportunity to help get Americans back to work and equip generations to lead. As a father of three, I understand the importance of giving our children the tools they need to succeed,” said Rep. Dold. “The Illinois Education Association is a strong advocate for public education and works to increase opportunities for children in our communities. I am honored to receive their endorsement.”

The IEA endorsed the incumbent Dold in 2012 (when he lost his seat to Democrat Brad Schneider in a presidential year), and backed the incumbent Schneider in 2014 (when Schneider lost his seat to Dold in an off-year).

So, the union is back to endorsing an incumbent who’s facing an election year with strong national headwinds.

  17 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Rep. Welter Seeking Input from District

MORRIS—State Representative David Welter (R-Morris) is seeking members for his new legislative advisory committees.

Welter will be hosting regular meetings that will allow these advisory boards to provide input he can use when presenting and voting on legislation in Springfield.

“Advisory boards are key to representing our district well,” said Welter. “This provides opportunity for members of the community to not only bring in ideas, which I always welcome, but it allows for a sounding board when discussing legislation that is presented by other parts of the state. I want to know how this will impact our community so I can represent our district well.”

The first round of advisory communities will include Education, Agriculture, First Responders and Disability Advocates.

Welter (R-Morris) was recently appointed to replace GOP Rep. John Anthony.

* The Question: Your advice to the new legislator?

  31 Comments      


Unclear on the concept

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

The Illinois Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) State Lodge and Labor Council salute all working men and women in the state of Illinois this Labor Day, particularly the law enforcement officers, emergency telecommunicators and corrections officers who will be on duty to help make the holiday safe and enjoyable for everyone.

“These law enforcement officers take no holidays so others can enjoy theirs,” said FOP State Lodge President Chris Southwood. “This Labor Day, take a moment to appreciate the work that law enforcement officers do that maintains and protects our society, where people of all backgrounds are free to advocate for higher wages, better benefits, safe workplaces, and fair treatment on the job.”

“Remember the courage and dedication of those who put on the badge every day in one of the nation’s most dangerous and demanding jobs,” said FOP Labor Council Executive Director David Wickster. “Let’s honor their service by celebrating the workers who built this great nation and keep it running, and make sure everyone’s right to fair compensation for an honest day’s work is never diminished.”

* But the Chicago FOP has a different holiday idea

As Chicago police battle surging violence, the union representing rank-and-file officers continues to urge officers not to work overtime shifts over Labor Day weekend.

The request from the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police comes as the city is reeling from 86 homicides in August, the deadliest month in 20 years.

The FOP has been calling for the boycott since late July, and the latest memo sent Wednesday to its 10,000 rank-and-file officers declared Friday through Monday as “FOP Unity Days” and urged officers to spend time with their families. […]

In a brief telephone interview Wednesday, police Superintendent Eddie Johnson told the Tribune he was confident staffing levels for the Labor Day weekend would be adequate. He didn’t take issue with the union’s message but called on officers to stay united. […]

If the department falls short on the number of officers needed to work overtime this weekend, Johnson said, he’d cancel days off for some officers, a common move by officials over holiday weekends during the summer.

* The Second City Cop blog reported the other day that some days off have already been canceled

Days off Cancelled for All District Tact Teams, Area Saturation Teams, Gun Teams, Gang Enforcement Teams and Summer Mobile for the Labor Day weekend

* Meanwhile, as I was watching Charlie Rose the other night, film director Spike Lee told the host that he wanted to see the US Army brought in to Chicago to quell the violence, pointing to the success of Gen. Russel Honoré after Hurricane Katrina. But reports of violence in New Orleans were hugely overblown and Lee should know that, since he did two documentaries on the topic.

I just don’t see how armed troops in the streets will solve this problem. So, I’m in agreement with the governor here

The Republican governor said he had discussed the concept with community leaders, police officers and the National Guard, but that “no thoughtful leader thinks that’s a good idea or would really provide a solution.” […]

“If that means bringing in the National Guard — some people have said, ‘Bring in the National Guard.’ We’ve discussed that. We’ve analyzed it,” Rauner said. “In fact, it may exacerbate the other problems. So, nobody thinks that’s a good idea.”

Calling up the National Guard is an idea that has repeatedly surfaced during the last decade amid Chicago’s persistent gun violence. A change.org petition pushing the idea has accumulated more than 10,000 signatures. On Wednesday, a reporter suggested to Rauner that residents on the South and West sides want the troops brought in.

“Well, see, sometimes, when you get emotional and you say, ‘Well, we’ve got to do something,’ …the reality is, sometimes, something is — actually makes it worse, or something creates other problems,” Rauner said. “You’ve got to think these things through and the implications. And the National Guard right now wouldn’t make sense.”

* And Father Pfleger wants a state of emergency declared

And although Chicago has a lower homicide rate than many other U.S. cities that are smaller in population, the city this year has had more homicides and shooting victims than New York City and Los Angeles combined. The two cities are larger than Chicago’s population of roughly 2.7 million. […]

Earlier Wednesday, Gov. Bruce Rauner ruled out the idea of deploying the National Guard to help combat street violence in the city, saying that to do so would be an “emotional” reaction that “wouldn’t make sense.” At his demonstration, Pfleger demanded the governor instead call for a state of emergency in order to tap federal resources to help deal with Chicago violence.

“When there are fires, we call a state of emergency. When there are hurricanes, a state of emergency. When there’s floods, a state of emergency,” he said. “Well, we have the fire of violence and gunfire. We have the floods of blood in our streets. And we have communities that look like third world countries, that look like it must have had a tornado hit it, or a hurricane.”

What federal money? Illinois couldn’t even get FEMA to help with the devastating tornado damage in Washington.

Nice rhetoric, but I’m just not seeing it unless the President himself gets involved. And then what? Troops? To do what?

  56 Comments      


Still no Duckworth settlement as Sabato moves race to “Likely Democratic”

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Kerry Lester

More than a week past their deadline, parties in the workplace harassment suit against U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth of Hoffman Estates still haven’t reached an agreement. What’s the holdup?

Sources involved with the case tell me plaintiffs Christine Butler and Denise Goins, workers in the downstate Anna Veterans’ Home, have two sticking points.

They don’t want to agree there was no wrongdoing by Duckworth in the case stemming from her time heading the Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs, and they want more than the reported $26,000 compensation in an earlier agreement. […]

Judge Mark Boie has given both sides several more days to settle before he takes matters into his own hands, records from the Union County clerk’s office show.

* But that court case didn’t impress Larry Sabato, who just moved the Senate race from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”

Let’s tackle these in order of likeliest Democratic pickups, starting from most likely to increasingly less likely.

We’ve long listed first-term Sens. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Ron Johnson (R-WI) as underdogs in their reelection bids: Both Senate races have been leaning to the Democrats for more than a year in our ratings. Kirk and Johnson were helped by 2010’s optimal Republican conditions, but this year they drew solid challengers in Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D, IL-8) and ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D), respectively… Illinois has had very little polling, but Republican outside groups appear to have abandoned Kirk, a sure sign that they do not see much of a path to victory for him.

Additionally, Trump does not appear to be targeting either state. Of course, Illinois going Democratic for president is a foregone conclusion unless a Republican is winning a huge national victory. Illinois has voted at least five points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in each of the last six presidential elections… While Johnson has largely if occasionally tepidly embraced Trump, Kirk says he won’t vote for him. They are utilizing different strategies, but neither method seems likely to create the distance they’ll need from Trump to win reelection. (In fact, Johnson is currently running slightly behind Trump, as shown in Table 1 below).

If Johnson or Kirk recover, it will likely be a sign that the national winds have shifted in favor of Trump and the Republicans. As of now, it’s hard to see how either one wins, so we’re moving both races from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.

  11 Comments      


Who’s really in charge of new foundation?

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From earlier this month

Frustrated with a lack of legislative progress, a group of agriculture leaders is bypassing the General Assembly to form a private foundation to support the state fairgrounds in Springfield and Du Quoin.

Characterizing it as a completely private initiative, Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner applauded the effort, which was announced Tuesday morning during Agriculture Day at the state fair. […]

“The wonderful thing for the people of Illinois is now private citizens – farm families, community leaders, agriculture executives – are stepping forward to take the leadership on this initiative,” Rauner said. “We’re not going to wait. … The General Assembly won’t do it; private citizens are going to do it.”

* From a Rauner press release at the time

Leaders in the agricultural community established the Illinois Fairgrounds Foundation to promote, support, assist, and sustain the Springfield and Du Quoin State Fairgrounds. The foundation will be led by a volunteer board representing a diverse cross section of the agriculture industry. Board members will engage with private sector business organizations and individuals to develop strategies to raise private funding, coordinate with the Department of Agriculture to plan projects and determine the Fairgrounds’ needs, and serve as ambassadors for the revitalization and improvement of the Fairgrounds and their agricultural heritage.

* Today

When Gov. Bruce Rauner announced during last month’s Illinois State Fair that a nonprofit foundation had formed to help pay for upkeep of the state fairgrounds in Springfield and Du Quoin, he touted it as an effort of private individuals in agriculture and business.

“This is not going to be a government agency in any regard,” Rauner said in announcing the foundation on Agriculture Day at the fair. “This is all private money, all private management, all private control.”

But emails and other records released to the Springfield bureau of Lee Enterprises newspapers under the Illinois Freedom of Information Act show that officials with the Illinois Department of Agriculture and the Rauner administration were heavily involved in the group’s formation. […]

Records show that state officials have been meeting since at least early June to discuss the foundation and played a role in assembling the organization’s board. State officials also put together a “Facts & FAQs” document detailing how the foundation would function and set the agenda for a conference call with board members five days before the effort was publicly announced.

The governor was most certainly hyperbolic during the unveiling, but somebody had to get this thing off the ground and the original story included this quote from John Slayton, a bank vice president who’s been involved with the fair’s Sale of Champions for years

“Gov. Rauner really took the lead,” Slayton said, “and he’s the one that gets credit for the formation of this foundation.”

Even so, if they’ve already put together the details about how the foundation would function it’s not really a privately led organization.

…Adding… The governor’s office claims that “individuals reached out” to the Department of Agriculture asking to be involved if the bill creating the foundation passed. When the bill failed to move, the governor’s people say they “helped bring those individuals together so they could create a foundation.”

  17 Comments      


Smiddy called a Madigan “lapdog” at event

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Years ago, a wise man told me that candidates who constantly speak at or attend civic events were wasting much of their time. The folks who attend these various local events tend to be the same people. So, doing too many of them meant you were talking to or meeting with the same people time after time. It’s much better, he said, to skip many (not all, because some are must-attends) of those events and walk precincts and make fundraising calls.

There is also the real danger that events won’t be well-attended. Like yesterday, for instance, when Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) spoke at a forum that his Republican opponent wisely skipped

Sheesh.

* But things got worse

Frustration with the Illinois financial picture roiled on Wednesday when Don Benson, East Moline, slapped his hand on a table and said to state Rep. Mike Smiddy: “How will you pay for that? Your math doesn’t compute!”

Benson’s eruption came during a discussion on state support for hourly wages of home health care workers.

Smiddy, Hillsdale, is a Democrat representing the state’s 71st District. He and Mike Halpin, Rock Island, the Democratic candidate in the 72nd District race, were the only two candidates to show up at a political forum on Wednesday sponsored by the Quad-City chapter of the Alliance for Retired Americans. […]

Benson said he was disappointed Smiddy wasn’t able to work with Gov. Bruce Rauner, who has been in office less than two years.

“You can’t lay this all on Rauner,” he said. “It’s time for a change.”

* And then it got even worse

Dick Benson, of East Moline, expressed disappointment in Rep. Smiddy’s service, calling him a “lapdog” for Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan. Mr. Benson said Democrats needed to stop blaming all of the state’s woes on Gov. Bruce Rauner, a Republican.

All that time and effort spent on an event that only wound up providing embarrassing coverage for the incumbent. Smiddy should’ve spent that time walking precincts.

  22 Comments      


Wheeler’s suggestions on remap reform

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After reading all the opinions on the subject and reading the various analyses, Charlie Wheeler offers up some “broad suggestions” for the next attempt at remap reform via popular referendum

At a minimum, don’t include anything that could be construed as extraneous. No new duties for the auditor general — an office created by a different article of the constitution.

No limits on future office seeking by those drawing the maps.

Don’t tinker with the Supreme Court’s exclusive jurisdiction on remap cases, nor with the attorney general’s charge to initiate legal action in the people’s name, both issues included in the most recent failed plan.

Keep the independent commission, but find someone else to screen the applicants, somebody not mentioned elsewhere in the Constitution. Perhaps a legislative support body, like the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, or the office of the Legislative Inspector General. Maybe a private entity, like the Illinois State Bar Association, or a group of academics specializing in demographics, GPS tools, information systems or other related fields.

Additions? Subtractions? Etc.?

  29 Comments      


Good luck, Tom!

Thursday, Sep 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* He’s a good reporter and, apparently, one heck of a great guy

They’re close friends who root for different teams.

That worries Tom Costello ahead of Thursday’s surgery in St. Louis, where he is to receive Tom Kacich’s kidney.

“I just hope it doesn’t turn me into a Cubs fan,” said Costello, loyal to the White Sox.

Costello was at MTD and Kacich at The News-Gazette when they first met in ’75. Their friendship bloomed over the years and continues today, the two joining others at Perkins in Urbana on Saturday mornings. Over breakfast in January, Costello informed the gang that his wife, Rose, had been rejected as a kidney donor.

“I’ll try it,” Kacich said with no hesitation. Many tests and weeks later, Kacich and his kidney were cleared to proceed. Their operations will take place 30 minutes apart Thursday morning.

“He gets my left kidney — the inferior one,” Kacich said. “I get to keep the better one.”

  10 Comments      


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