* This hypothetical result for Illinois from FiveThirtyEight is no surprise at all…

* But this one is interesting…

We’re a more diverse state than many others, so that explains much of it, but not all of it.

…Adding… If you look at the crosstabs from the latest Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll, Clinton leads Trump among all whites 45-35, including leaners. Clinton leads among men 47-35. Men were slightly less than half the sample, but they don’t break results down by gender plus race, so it’s impossible to tell what the white male result is.

       

70 Comments - Ahoy! - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:28 pm: Kind of makes me ashamed of being a man… - RNUG - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:28 pm: I’ve always maintained that, overall, Illinois tends to mirror New York and California … just usually a year or two later. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:32 pm: The blueness of the subrurbs and even the northern small towns like Galesburg especially in Pres. years.compared to other Midwestern states.We will see if Rauners money has any effect. Maybe maybe not - Archiesmom - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:37 pm: When I moved here from California over a decade ago, I thought it was one of the few states I could manage to live in as a progressive Democrat - politically, that is. Despite the current mess, I still feel like I was right. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:38 pm: Some husbands need a stern talking to. - City Zen - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:40 pm: “What 2016 would look like…” …under two different disaster scenarios… - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:42 pm: So if Trump somehow wins this is probably the last time I’ll get to vote. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:43 pm: I would not credit “Blue Illinois” solely to the state’s diversity. It is an important element, but it is not the only factor. The Illinois GOP has been extraordinarily divided and routinely inept. This lack of a meaningful alternative has contributed to Democratic hegemony. - Amalia - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:44 pm: come on guys!!!! - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:48 pm: Men claim to be the more rational gender, but how can anyone rationally conclude the Donald is fit to be President? - Groucho - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:48 pm: Illinois is Cubbie Blue - Big Muddy - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:50 pm: Can we repeal the 19th Amendment before November? (Ladies, I kid! Pure snark) - Scamp640 - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:52 pm: According to The Atlantic, male support for Trump can be explained, in significant part at least, by the idea that many men, especially white men, feel persecuted and turn to Trump for affirmation. They have a “precarious masculinity.” I agree. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/male-trump-voters-masculinity/503741/ - AlfondoGonz - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:52 pm: To my fellow men: C’mon, guys. Let us be better. - Ryan - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:58 pm: Men are clearly the lesser species. - Beeker - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:03 pm: And many of those “men” comment here. They’re the long-winded sorts who love to hear themselves talk. Makes them easy to skip over. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:13 pm: YouGov / Economist had a funny poll out recently where a -way- higher percentage of men said that their spouses were voting for Trump, than the same married women did when asked directly. “Sure, honey …” - Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:16 pm: Which is why the women’s’ vote is considered so important. I cannot understand why any husband, father or brother wants to vote for Trump. Guess they aren’t worried the women in their family will ever be in his presence. - 180 - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:23 pm: @Thoughts Matter: I cannot understand why any wife, mother, sister or daughter wants to be photographed with Bill Clinton either. Life is full of paradoxes. Like calling Hillary a “feminist.” - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:30 pm: From the latest YouGov/Economist poll: Only 33% of husbands say their wife is voting for Hillary Clinton — but 45% of wives say they’re voting for Hillary Clinton. Haw! – MrJM - Not quite a majority - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:37 pm: Makes me wonder what is going on with the women in Nebraska. - Ron - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:45 pm: That Mr. Trump has more than 20% of any groups vote is scary. - scott aster - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:50 pm: Half the women are single issue folks and have no clue about economics. - Piece of Work - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:52 pm: So if Hillary wins, it is the fault of the women. No flowers for the women!!! - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:57 pm: “Half the women are single issue folks and have no clue about economics.” Can I guess why she left you and got custody of the kids? – MrJM - Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:58 pm: 180 - Bill is not running - Illinois Bob - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:59 pm: In general, I’ve found that women tend to be more superficial in their candidate preferences than men. I understand that shows like “the VOICE”, and “AMERICAN IDOL” were driven by women calling in. I suspect that this effect has conditioned many women to select candidates as they do entertainers… - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:05 pm: Illinois Bob just committed the blog equivalent of suicide. lol - Federalist - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:07 pm: At least since 1992 women have voted for Democrats. Even in 1996 after the Clinton ‘bimbo’ eruptions the breakdown was 55-39 for Clinton. Obama won big among women. The trend has accelerated as there are more and more single women and they vote even more heavily Democratic than do their married counterparts. And as more and more women are non White that also accelerates the numbers. What is so hard to understand about this. HRC has blasted women who dared to come out against her husband and has been very nasty even when proven wrong- it seems to make no difference. Yes, many of the above posts are very fashionably critical of men voting for Trump. This does not surprise me at all. However, there is nothing new in the voting pattern - JS Mill - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:08 pm: =“Half the women are single issue folks and have no clue about economics.” Can I guess why she left you and got custody of the kids? – MrJM = Winner, Winner, chicken dinner! Outstanding sir! - corvax - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:17 pm: See? women ARE smarter than men! - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:20 pm: That -was- Illinois Bob? I thought for a sec maybe someone was sabotaging him. But Rich would know from the computer location. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:25 pm: Illinois Bob reminds me of those pundits who claimed women would vote for Dan Quayle because he supposedly resembled Robert Redford. - Scamp640 - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:29 pm: @ Illinois Bob. I can’t tell if you’re serious or just trolling. But as a response to your declaration of female simple-mindedness, have you seen the memes online showing human pratfalls that begin with the phrase, “hold my beer.” Can you guess the gender of those people saying that? - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:32 pm: I’m not a Trump fan and I won’t even consider voting for him, but I’m growing tired of the “how can you vote for ____?!” rhetoric on both sides of the aisle. It’s mildly offensive at best and wildly inappropriate at worst. It’s no one’s business how you vote or why you feel the way you do. We discuss it here because we’re political animals who either work in the “business” or have a vested interest in politics and government. The impact of social media on this phenomenon of electoral “shaming” is infuriating. I see it all the time on Facebook and I’m always curious what my friends who are completely in the tank for one candidate will react if the opposite candidate wins. It’s possible they haven’t thought that far. And the worst part is that some of it’s permeating to local and low level state offices. It’s also sobering to think that people are actually shedding friends and shunning family members over politics. - Federalist - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:41 pm: How is Illinois Bob’s statement any different than the comment “Men are clearly the lesser species” which had been stated earlier? Substitute a racial minority for ‘Men’ and would that bring concern? I am not a fan of Illinois Bob and have gone after him for some of his views. However, I do strongly feel he is being unfairly targeted and it somewhat plays into what Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:32 pm: just stated. - Belle - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:41 pm: Is this Illinois Bob-thing a joke? This is so demeaning. I research voting including judges do vote for the right person since I take voting very seriously. I cannot imagine voting for Trump because I fear that the economy will crash or, at a minimum, suffer dire consequences. In addition, the idea of a President with small hands may not a good idea since he may act like he has something to prove. I don’t watch reality TV Shows. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:55 pm: @Federalist - The difference in the comments you cited is that one of them was snark. Bob’s wasn’t snark. He actually wholeheartedly believes the dumb thing he wrote. - Federalist - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:07 pm: Was it really Snark and thus ’sarcastic’ and that somehow makes it OK? Nice try at a defense but it reveals your attitude and not much else. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:13 pm: ==Was it really Snark and thus ’sarcastic’ and that somehow makes it OK== Lighten up Francis. Sheesh. - The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:15 pm: @Federalist the “men are clearly the lesser species” comment was clearly tongue in cheek. - X-prof - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:17 pm: “And as more and more women are non White that also accelerates the numbers. What is so hard to understand about this.” Presumably, more and more men are also non white. Why doesn’t that similarly accelerate the numbers for “blue men”? Please help, I’m struggling to understand the logic. I agree that the pattern is not new, much to the shame of my gender. I do get the sense that it has become more pronounced lately. - Amalia - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:17 pm: - scott aster - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:50 pm: Half the women are single issue folks and have no clue about economics. no, we’re multi issue cats with claws and we fight back! - Illinois Bob - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:26 pm: @scamp640 =But as a response to your declaration of female simple-mindedness,= It’s not about simple mindedness, scamp. Women make decisions based upon different things than men. Learn the psychology and the marketing strategy differences between men and women, and, after all, politics today is little more than packaging and marketing. Critical evaluation of policy and qualifications are minor factors. I guarantee you that every major campaign has a separate strategy for attracting women and men. What do you think this Trump tape deal was all about? It has nothing to do with intelligence, folks, it’s just about things that differ in what motivates the genders and matter most to them. You may not like it, but you have to be an ostrich to ignore it… - Illinois Bob - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:30 pm: @Rich Miller =Illinois Bob just committed the blog equivalent of suicide. lol= Actually, from reading the posts above, it was more like inviting homicide!LOL Suicide by hostile blogging?LOL - Federalist - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:32 pm: The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:15 pm: @Federalist the “men are clearly the lesser species” comment was clearly tongue in cheek. Really. That the best you can come up with as a defense. Just remember to substitute a minority group for ‘men’ and see how funny you would think that is. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:35 pm: have no clue about economics Tell that to Janet Yellen. - Federalist - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:35 pm: @Demoralized, ” Lighten up Francis. Sheesh.” Coming from you that is really rich- Francis!! - BigDoggie - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:35 pm: I had an ex-coworker who liked to occasionally state: “The two biggest mistakes this country ever made are prohibition and giving women the right to vote. They corrected one of them.” Not endorsing or editorializing, simply quoting! Honest! - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:40 pm: “Is this Illinois Bob-thing a joke?” How many times have I asked myself that question? – MrJM - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:44 pm: Federalist - just remember that we men have no feelings. - Scamp640 - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:15 pm: @ Illinois Bob. I will agree with you that men and women might respond differently to marketing messages and strategies. No doubt. I think the issue is your use of the word “superficial” when referring to female voting strategies. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:20 pm: ==Really. That the best you can come up with as a defense. Just remember to substitute a minority group for ‘men’ and see how funny you would think that is.== Get over it. If you can’t tell the difference between snark and a serious comment then you don’t belong on blogs. - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:21 pm: “just remember that we men have no feelings.” We’ve all got feelings. Some of us also have a sense of humor. – MrJM - Demoralized - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:28 pm: ==Women make decisions based upon different things than men.== That’s really a decent point. There are plenty of studies out there about how the brains of men and women work differently. We reason differently. We perceive differently. We process emotions differently. And, if you understand some of those differences then, of course, as a politician, if you are trying to court a specific set of voters, you will adjust your message to the target audience. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:45 pm: I just hope there is no funny business at the voting booths this year. - Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:48 pm: Ha! Eric Trump sent a fundraising email for his dad, “Momentum,” and included the men-only map. No snark. He really did it. https://www.buzzfeed.com/maryanngeorgantopoulos/19th-amendment-exists - JB13 - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:08 pm: – Bill is not running — I’m certain you would have extended that same reasoned courtesy to Jeb Bush, if he had been the GOP nominee. - baloneymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:16 pm: “Half the women are single issue folks and have no clue about economics.” Can I guess why she left you and got custody of the kids? “Is this Illinois Bob-thing a joke?” How many times have I asked myself that question? “just remember that we men have no feelings.” We’ve all got feelings. Some of us also have a sense of humor. MisterJayEm just won the internet three times today, and thats just on this post alone, and it’s only 5:15pm. and you guys wonder why women don’t like Trump, regardless of the tape. Read some of your own comments, you sound just like him. - Federalist - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:18 pm: @Demoralized, “you don’t belong on the blogs” As usual you showed your true colors! - Holdingontomywallet - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:39 pm: Hmmm, see story above, could be why people are leaving Illinois! Moving to red states. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 6:59 pm: So who’s going to win this Trump/Ryan race? The 35% of the voters who could care seem to be evenly divided at this point. Is there another race going on that’s of interest? You reap what you sow. - Holdingontomywallet - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:17 pm: “Is there another race going on that’s of interest?” It doesn’t seem like it, but there is a lot of time left in this election and there is likely more to come out on Hillary. To be clear, I am far from a Trump supporter. He was far from my first pick, but she was definitely my last. - thoughts matter - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:43 pm: -=I’m certain you would have extended that same reasoned courtesy to Jeb Bush, if he had been the GOP nominee== I voted for Jeb in the primary and would have been be proud to vote for him in the general had he been mominated. - thoughts matter - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:50 pm: Sorry, have to amend that - forgot that Jeb had already dropped out by the time the Ilinois primary was held. I wanted to vote for him, but it would have been a vote wasted. I did NOT vote for Trump. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:52 pm: –It doesn’t seem like it, but there is a lot of time left in this election and there is likely more to come out on Hillary.– Voting is happening now. They’ve been voting in Ohio for more than a week. About one-third of votes nationally will be cast before Nov. 8. As far as those revelations about Hillary — yeah, she’s a real Manchurian Candidate, snuck up on everyone under the radar. How did that happen, anyway? For crying out loud — there was a Justice Department Special Prosecutor — FBI and IRS support — crawling all over the Clintons’ personal, political and financial lives going back to Arkansas for five years while Bill Clinton was president. That was in the 1990s. And we got Monica. As John Kass will remind you in every column that he writes, on anything. Because…. he’s just into that twenty-year-old naughty talk about cigars and such. Can’t get enough, obviously. Anyone see how super-sleuth tower of rectitude Ken Starr has done lately? At Baylor? - Ron - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:06 pm: I have to agree with wordslinger. The only bombshells that will come out will be to further show what a buffoon Trump is. - Holdingontomywallet - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:21 pm: By the way Wordslinger, I really like reading your posts. I read Capitol Fax everyday - for years and like your comments. I used to comment more, but haven’t for a year or so - too much of a snarkfest for me. I do like most of the comments though especially yours… - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:53 pm: It doesn’t surprise me at all that men would vote differently than women when it comes to Hillary (or any other Democrat). Obama lost the male vote in 2012, but probably by a smaller margin than Hillary may lose the male vote. What’s lost to me in the swill of the scandals is that a woman has a very good or excellent chance to be elected president. This is a big deal, and I swallowed some of my principles to vote for her in the primary because I want to see a woman president in my lifetime. I regretted my vote a few times. I lean more toward Sanders in my views, but given our history, and world history, I think the time for a woman president is now. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:55 pm: –So what do you think this whole Trump tape deal was all about?– Revealing someone bragging about sexual assault? I’m missing the strictly “women’s ” issue there. Was that Dennis Hastert “deal” a “high school wrestling” issue? Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.