Presidential candidates set the turnout. That’s the race voters care about the most by far, so everybody else who’s running down-ballot essentially has to work within the structure of that year’s presidential turnout numbers.
Some organizations can fiddle around with the margins here and there and get some voters out who might not have bothered voting, but down-ballot candidates mainly have to find a way to win with the hand they are dealt by the top of the ticket. So, if one presidential candidate crashes and burns, that’s almost always the ballgame.
That’s just something to keep in mind while watching top Republicans abandon their presidential nominee Donald Trump after that ghastly “hot mic” tape surfaced and he, in turn, lashed out at those turncoat Republicans and promised a nuclear attack on the Democratic nominee whom he has pledged to prosecute if elected.
Yes, there’s still time for Trump to get his act together. The election is still a few weeks away - usually considered an eternity in politics. But, man, just look at this mess. Miracles do happen in politics, but miracles ain’t plans.
It goes without saying that the impact of a possible implosion in Illinois will be felt the most in the suburbs where more moderate voters were less receptive to Trump’s candidacy to begin with. Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake) has been under constant, withering attack from the Republicans for months, so he could really use some help from the top.
The Democrats recently sent more than $200,000 to Cynthia Borbas’ DuPage County race against Rep. Christine Winger (R-Wood Dale). That’s about half of all the money they’ve given her since July. President Barack Obama lost the district by two points in 2012, so it’s worth watching if this weirdness at the top continues.
The Republicans maintain that their expensive and meticulously concocted plan, centered around tying Democratic candidates directly to the horribly unpopular House Speaker Michael Madigan, will get people to the polls and convince them to support Republican legislative candidates even if some of them vote for Hillary Clinton.
But the Republicans have also said for months that their plan depends on Trump not completely falling apart. He just has to run a “normal” race, which obviously isn’t happening.
It’s hard to see how this will work out well for the Republicans in the suburbs, where moderate women voters are undoubtedly appalled at what’s going on with Donald Trump.
But it’s a bit trickier in Downstate districts, where Trump has been the most popular here.
For example, just a couple of short weeks ago, Mike Mathis’ Democratic supporters were proudly pointing to the number of homes that had their guy’s yard signs planted next to Trump’s signs. Mathis is up against appointed Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond) is a district just south of Springfield and has run a credible race.
trump-illinois.jpg
Photo by Bloomberg
Presidential candidates set the turnout. That’s the race voters care about the most by far, so everybody else who’s running down-ballot essentially has to work within the structure of that year’s presidential turnout numbers.
Some organizations can fiddle around with the margins here and there and get some voters out who might not have bothered voting, but down-ballot candidates mainly have to find a way to win with the hand they are dealt by the top of the ticket. So, if one presidential candidate crashes and burns, that’s almost always the ballgame.
That’s just something to keep in mind while watching top Republicans abandon their presidential nominee Donald Trump after that ghastly “hot mic” tape surfaced and he, in turn, lashed out at those turncoat Republicans and promised a nuclear attack on the Democratic nominee whom he has pledged to prosecute if elected.
-
Yes, there’s still time for Trump to get his act together. The election is still a few weeks away - usually considered an eternity in politics. But, man, just look at this mess. Miracles do happen in politics, but miracles ain’t plans.
It goes without saying that the impact of a possible implosion in Illinois will be felt the most in the suburbs where more moderate voters were less receptive to Trump’s candidacy to begin with. Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake) has been under constant, withering attack from the Republicans for months, so he could really use some help from the top.
The Democrats recently sent more than $200,000 to Cynthia Borbas’ DuPage County race against Rep. Christine Winger (R-Wood Dale). That’s about half of all the money they’ve given her since July. President Barack Obama lost the district by two points in 2012, so it’s worth watching if this weirdness at the top continues.
The Republicans maintain that their expensive and meticulously concocted plan, centered around tying Democratic candidates directly to the horribly unpopular House Speaker Michael Madigan, will get people to the polls and convince them to support Republican legislative candidates even if some of them vote for Hillary Clinton.
But the Republicans have also said for months that their plan depends on Trump not completely falling apart. He just has to run a “normal” race, which obviously isn’t happening.
It’s hard to see how this will work out well for the Republicans in the suburbs, where moderate women voters are undoubtedly appalled at what’s going on with Donald Trump.
But it’s a bit trickier in Downstate districts, where Trump has been the most popular here.
For example, just a couple of short weeks ago, Mike Mathis’ Democratic supporters were proudly pointing to the number of homes that had their guy’s yard signs planted next to Trump’s signs. Mathis is up against appointed Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond) is a district just south of Springfield and has run a credible race.
The Mathis campaign’s boast about attracting Trump supporters has also happened in most every other contested Downstate district, as what remains of the Democratic blue collar white male vote surged away from Clinton to Trump. Simply put, the Democrats recognized early on that they needed those votes to win.
In Mathis’ case, President Obama lost the 95th House District by 13 points four years ago, so the only way he can defeat Rep. Bourne is with support from people who normally lean Republican.
Mathis was asked about who he was supporting for president at a candidates’ forum last week. After much hemming and hawing and complaining about how bad the choices were, he finally said, reluctantly, that he’d be voting for Hillary Clinton.
Trump has become so toxic that maybe Mathis’ position won’t hurt him too badly. Then again, lots and lots of Trump supporters believe Clinton is the Devil incarnate (I’m not kidding, do a Google search). They may not like what their guy is doing, but that won’t push them toward her.
Trump polled a mere 29 percent in a statewide Democratic poll taken the middle of last week and careened downward to an unheard-of 27 percent in a Republican tracking poll earlier last week. He bounced back to above 30 in that GOP tracker, but… oh, man that’s still bad.
To be clear, a Trump implosion will undoubtedly help Democrats. The fewer people who lean Republican who actually vote on election day or switch parties means Democratic voters will make up a greater share of the November 8th pie.
But after positioning themselves as Trump-friendly for months, Downstate Democrats now have to navigate a minefield for the next few weeks.
- Rabid - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 5:02 am:
There will be someone who degrades women in the white house January. The Russia hack that Debbie resigned over is not to be believed over Hillary now?
- Anon - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 5:42 am:
Yeah, Rich nailed it. I think it is Dold’s ultimate undoing. There are lots of Romney voters who say they will be ticket splitters, crossing over for Hillary while sticking with Dold (and Kirk). But many moderate Republicans in the 10th and elsewhere in the suburbs will just stay home because they look at the election through the prism of the presidential race. That’s how normal voters behave–CapFax commenters are a different breed
- walker - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 6:02 am:
It’s all about turnout, combined with willingness to split tickets. The frustration with Trump among loyal suburban Republicans is palpable. Most will still turnout, but even a loss of a couple of percent can swing down ballot races.
One thing to consider is that we have all-women Dem tickets from President, Senate, US Congress, Comptroller, all the way to Illinois House races, in a lot of Chicago suburban areas. Not sure how that plays out locally, but might mean less splitting.
- walker - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 7:24 am:
Rabid: This thread is not about Trump or Clinton themselves, but about their impact on Illinois races. There are plenty of other sites to talk Presidential campaigns.
- downstater - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 7:49 am:
Mathis has repeatedly positioned himself as a conservative on the doorsteps and has denounced Madigan and said he’s for term limits, while promoting his strong 2nd Amendment position. This is what he says on the doorsteps, anyway. A guy who served 20 years as the Macoupin County Circuit Clerk is for term limits, and despite all of the support from the HDO, he’s against Madigan? And he’s supporting Hillary Clinton while touting his NRA creds? A lot of contradictions there.
- Chucktownian - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 8:18 am:
The GOP will get buried. All that Rauner money wasted.
- Anon - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 8:44 am:
===The Republicans maintain that their expensive and meticulously concocted plan===
Expensive? Yes. Meticulous? No.
They’ve spent an awful lot of money at this point on mail to my household that hasn’t been remotely targeted and at no point have myself or anyone I live with received a call canvassing our vote.
They’re wasting a lot of money. With the amount they’re spending, they could at least try to target mailers. Every single one I’ve gotten is designed as if they only have money for a single mail piece that that was designed for voters with Republican primary history, but they got enough money at the last minute to send it to every voter and don’t have the money to design a second piece.
- illinois manufacturer - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 8:47 am:
30 is bounce back?
- Allen D - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 8:58 am:
The polls, and political pundits have been wrong about Trump time and time again since this began… Don’t hold your breath about GOP and Trump sinking… it has been professed before… I believe there will be many GOP voters and well as DEM voters that will vote a straight party ticket… I however do not, but I think most voters actually do, no matter what they actually profess.
- PublicServant - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 9:05 am:
===Yes, there’s still time for Trump to get his act together.===
If it were only an act…
- Hamlet's Ghost - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 9:13 am:
=== Yes, there’s still time for Trump to get his act together. ===
I don’t think The Donald’s plans include getting his act together, at least in the conventional political sense.
- Winnin' - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 9:22 am:
The Rauner-Trump-Moran Caucus is alive and well.
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 9:30 am:
The Republicans will be o k if they just follow the lead of Peter J. Roskam. He knows which way the wind is blowing.
- just sayin' - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 9:39 am:
Yokel officials don’t understand the national landscape and they certainly don’t understand Trump.
Hardly a surprise given what an utter and complete disaster they’ve made of their own little corner of the world here in Illinois. Nothing but total incompetence and horrible judgment on display daily.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 10:03 am:
Saw a yard today that had Trump & Kirk signs in it. No other Repiblicans. Just those two. Oh the torment.
- Tough Guy - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 10:07 am:
I was at the same forum last week. When Rep. Bourne was asked who she would support she said the nominee. When the audience grumbled that they couldn’t hear what she said she said the nominee again. She didn’t say Trump until she was giving one on one interviews with the media afterwards. She is nervous about handling the issue since her Congressman (Rodney Davis) bolted from Trump.
- Federalist - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 11:57 am:
There is a Trump ‘problem’ and if anyone has any degree of objectivity there is at least an equal Clinton ‘problem’.
- downstater - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 12:24 pm:
–She is nervous about handling the issue since her Congressman (Rodney Davis) bolted from Trump.–
Davis is receiving massive backlash from Republicans right now. He’s in a safe race, but Bourne isn’t. She can’t afford to tick off the base like Davis has.
- Peorgie Tirebiter - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 12:28 pm:
Any possibility that if Clinton is perceived to have already been the winner some of the democratic vote may be diminished
- G'Kar - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 12:33 pm:
I live in a very Republican, non-competitive district at the very northern fringe of the Peoria media market. I have seen very little campaigning below the Comptroller race (Can I call it the Mendoza Line?). Plenty of comptroller and senate commercials on TV, but really almost nothing else. Since there has been at best token opponents from the Democrats, there have been no mailings and very few campaign signs.
This past weekend I drove down Rt 51 to Carbondale. Boy, were things different once I got south of Decatur. There were signs everywhere, Trump signs outnumbered Clinton signs at least 15 to 1. I don’t know enough about the local races to know if one party had more signs than the other, but they were everywhere.
When I watch WSIL for the 10 pm news, EVERY commercial was for a local legislative race (including one in Missouri). And they were all nasty. One actually used Obama saying something nice about Shelia Simon has a hammer against her!
I will be glad when the election is finally over, but I really do feel sorry for those in these fiercely competitive media markets for another three weeks!
- Federalist - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 1:29 pm:
“This past weekend I drove down Rt 51 to Carbondale. Boy, were things different once I got south of Decatur. There were signs everywhere, Trump signs outnumbered Clinton signs at least 15 to 1. I don’t know enough about the local races to know if one party had more signs than the other, but they were everywhere.”
Yes, Trump will do quite well downstate I believe, (I live in the Peoria area myself).
But he will be overwhelmed in the Chicago area and increasingly in the suburbs, where even Republican females are more liberal, as well as the tremendous number of Hispanics that have moved in the last decade.
End result, Trump still loses by plenty in Illinois.
- G'Kar - Monday, Oct 17, 16 @ 2:22 pm:
Federalist, I am not suggesting that Trump will win Illinois, or even downstate Illinois. I am just observing that the election campaign seems to be “hot” in the southern half of the state (south of I-72) when compared to my little “bubble” of a district.
- Lynn S. - Tuesday, Oct 18, 16 @ 3:13 am:
I’m going to second what G’Kar said.
I live in Champaign, and I’m not seeing a tremendous number of yard signs or political chatter, whether I compare against 2014, 2012, or 2008 races. Heck, even the folks at work are barely saying anything about the campaigns (and probably a good 70% of what is said is negative).
I went down to Mattoon 3 weeks ago for a family gathering, and I think there are more yard signs out in Mattoon ( pop. 18,000) than in Champaign-Urbana (pop. 120,000).