* The background is here. From a press release. All emphasis is in the original document…
Below is a statement from community leaders Gary Ciaccio, Mike Smith and former State Representative Lisa Dugan in response to allegations made by the Kankakee State’s Attorney’s Office on Tuesday:
“Since last Thursday, we have noticed illegal and unethical conduct by the Kankakee county state’s attorney, Kankakee county clerk and the Kankakee county sheriff’s offices. We took steps to ensure information was given to the Illinois Attorney General, the Illinois State Board of Elections and the Department of Justice regarding the actions of these local officials. We know many legally registered voters have been turned away from voting over the last few days. Since early voting for the 2016 general election began just a few short days ago, there have been numerous reports and eyewitness accounts of harassment and intimidation by local government officials of residents trying to participate in the democratic process of voting.
“We condemn attempts by anyone to engage in voter fraud, but we also will not tolerate attempts at voter intimidation aimed toward depriving local residents of their ability to vote. Everyone has a right to vote and no one should be subjected to intimidation. Our state and national constitutions exist for our protection as a people: to be protected from an overreaching government and to be protected from having our freedoms and our liberties taken from us.
“Again, we have ensured information was brought to the Attorney General and the Department of Justice to investigate these inexcusable incidents of intimidation and harassment against voters.”
From the Office of Jamie Boyd, Kankakee County State’s Attorney
Date: October 4, 2016
For Immediate Release:
Re: Election Fraud
The Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s Office has opened an investigation into voter fraud. This unprecedented action was taken in response to reports of individuals from Chicago offering gifts to potential voters in exchange for a vote for Kate Cloonen, Hillary Clinton and others. Our office takes seriously the obligation to protect the rights of citizens to vote for the candidate of their choice, and to do so without undue influence from special interest groups. The investigation will also focus on the authenticity of vote by mail requests. Several applications have been filed with the election authority that appear to be fraudulently executed. These documents were also filed by people who are not voters in Kankakee County.
As a result of the information we currently have, and in an effort to end the ongoing practices aimed at illegally gaining a victory for specific candidates changes have been made to the processes. Effective immediately no “I voted” stickers will be issued to voters. This will end the practice of vote purchasers using the stickers as proof of voting. A register has been created to keep track of all individuals dropping off “vote by mail” applications so that contact information is available if questions arise regarding any applications.
Local police departments have been advised of the ongoing investigation, and are prepared to assist in the event of continued questionable activity. The Kankakee County Clerk will continue to vigilantly enforce the electioneering rules during the early voting and grace period voting in an effort to insure the integrity of the election process.
We are asking the public to contact our office with any information they are aware of regarding these or other questionable activities during this election season. We are especially hopeful that if someone is offered any gift in exchange for voting that our office will be notified immediately so that we may prosecute the offenders.
Cloonen has won her last two general election races by an average of about 100 votes each. So, this is huge.
“These reports of voter fraud in Kankakee are incredibly disturbing. Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our democracy. It is truly deplorable when people try to corrupt our system in this manner. I call on Kate Cloonen to denounce these actions and confirm to the public that no one affiliated with her campaign had any knowledge or involvement with these alleged crimes.”
Twelve other Illinoisans made the list, four of them from the Pritzker family:
• Sam Zell, 117th, $4.7 billion, founder of Equity Group Investments
• J.B. Pritzker, 190th, $3.4 billion, co-founder and managing partner of Pritzer Group, a private investment firm
• Neil Bluhm, 204th, $3.2 billion, real estate and casino investor and a co-founder and chairman of Chicago-based Rush Street Gaming
• Thomas Pritzker, 214th, $3.1 billion, executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels
• Ty Warner, 274th, $2.5 billion, founder and CEO of Ty, a Westmont-based company that produces and distributes Beanie Babies and other plush toys
• Gigi Pritzker, 290th, $2.4 billion, co-founder and CEO of OddLot Entertainment, a film production and financing company
• Patrick Ryan, 290th, $2.4 billion, chairman and CEO of Ryan Specialty Group, a wholesale brokerage and specialty insurance firm in Chicago
• Mark Walter, 290th, $2.4 billion, CEO of Guggenheim Partners, a global investment and advisory financial services firm headquartered in Chicago and New York
• Joe Mansueto, 321st, $2.2 billion, chairman and CEO of Morningstar, a Chicago-based investment research and management firm
• Joseph Grendys, 335th, $2.1 billion, CEO of Koch Foods, a poultry processing company headquartered in Park Ridge
So, Griffin’s $3 million contribution to Comptroller Leslie Munger’s campaign last week is equal to 0.04 percent of his net worth.
To put that into perspective, if your net worth (what is owned minus what is owed) is $100,000, your equivalent contribution to Munger would be $40.
Duckworth Supports $60 Billion Spending Increase For Free Community College
At the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board Debate yesterday, Rep. Duckworth said she wants free community college but could not answer how much it would cost when asked by editorial board members.
Well, we found out how much it would cost: $60 billion dollars.
“Rep. Duckworth has advocated for a new entitlement program without even knowing the cost of it, so we helped her with the research. Duckworth’s plan would cost taxpayers $60 billion,” said Kirk For Senate campaign manager Kevin Artl. “As Senator Kirk said yesterday that while he wants to spend less, tax less and borrow less, Rep. Duckworth wants to spend more, tax more and borrow more, and that is the most important contrast for voters heading into November.”
Kirk, a retired Navy intelligence officer, said he wants the U.S. to create a safe haven for Syrian refugees in Jordan, with the help of the Jordanian government.
Duckworth said the idea “doesn’t even make sense” and would require “a massive increase in U.S. forces.”
“We can’t just be a nation that continually sends troops to war,” she said.
…Adding… Duckworth actually disclosed the cost in a press release at the end of yesterday’s debate…
Rapid Response #9: Tammy Duckworth Would Pay For Tuition-Free Community College By Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes
Today, Kirk Called Tuition-Free Community College For Deserving Students An “Entitlement”
CHICAGO —Tammy Duckworth has proposed how she would pay for her plan to make college more affordable: by closing a tax loophole that allows unlimited write-offs for executive bonuses, by closing the Carried Interest loophole, and by enacting the Buffet Rule to ensure millionaires pay their fair share. She would use the revenue to fully pay for the $60 billion cost of tuition-free community college for deserving students, in addition to making student loans more affordable and strengthening Pell grants.
Republican Mark Kirk on the other hand, today called tuition-free community college an “entitlement.” Tammy Duckworth considers it an investment in our future.
The Chicago Board of Education was desperate for cash. Two Wall Street players were willing to lend it — at a price.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Chicago-based Nuveen Asset Management have made realized and paper profits exceeding $110 million on purchases this year of $763 million in Chicago Public Schools bonds. The school system needed the money to replenish its dwindling coffers before the new school year and to build and repair facilities.
The school system’s bonds are a favorite for John Miller, Nuveen’s co-head of fixed income, who said the firm bought when the market feared a default, a concern he called overblown. “At the end of day, this school system is critically important to Chicago — to the whole country really,” he said.
“We took a period of market risk on behalf of our client when they needed it most and the market has recognized their improved financial position,” a J.P. Morgan spokeswoman said. […]
Prices of outstanding Chicago school bonds were hit in 2013 and 2015 after defaults by Detroit and Puerto Rico. Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner called for a state takeover of the school system and for a potential bankruptcy filing over the past year and prices fell below 75 cents on the dollar.
Nuveen determined that the default risk was far lower than that implied by the bond prices.
Smart move by Nuveen and Morgan. They figured out what others missed: The governor was just jaw-boning and that his ideas wouldn’t actually be put into place. They wound up making out like bandits.
* Meanwhile, this is from an SEIU Healthcare union media advisory…
Taxpayers to Rauner: Yes or No — Will you stand up to banks on near $1 billion payout on toxic swap deals?
Coalition demands that governor call on bank CEOs to extend deadline on ‘toxic’ interest rate swap deals
SPRINGFIELD—College professors, students, home healthcare workers, child care providers and others will call on Gov. Rauner to save taxpayers a near $1 billion payout to big Wall Street banks, money that instead could fund vital social services and education programs now being slashed by the Rauner administration.
The coalition will make the demand during an 11 a.m. press conference on Tuesday, Oct. 4, in the Blue room at the State Capitol Building, 301 S. 2nd St. Several Wall Street banks hold documents called Letters of Credit on toxic interest rate swap loans. The letters of credit expire on Nov. 27, triggering an immediate payout of hundreds of millions of dollars in addition to additional fees and penalties unless the banks extend the letters of credit.
Wanna guess who initiated those “toxic” swaps? Rod Blagojevich, SEIU’s bestest pal. Somehow, that isn’t mentioned in the release.
* But Blagojevich’s involvement is highlighted by the governor’s office today…
Rauner Takes Steps to Reduce Risks from Blagojevich-Quinn Inherited Financial Deals
Administration Spent Last Year Working to Reduce Taxpayers Financial Risk
SPRINGFIELD – Over the past several months, the Rauner Administration has taken steps to reduce the state’s financial risk on interest rate swaps and letters of credit. The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) recently completed renegotiations with all the banks that hold the State’s swaps to reduce the state’s financial risk.
“Governor Rauner inherited these swaps and letters of credit, which have been hanging over the heads of Illinois taxpayers for years,” Rauner spokeswoman Catherine Kelly said. “The Rauner Administration has successfully negotiated better terms for Illinois’ taxpayers, which have reduced our financial exposure and increased our ability to direct the state’s limited resources to education and social services.”
The new terms are more favorable to the state and reduce the state’s financial risk. Under the new terms, the State is less likely to have the swaps terminated and owe a payout to the banks because the credit rating thresholds that allow the banks to terminate have been lowered. These new terms are better for the State than the terms agreed to by the Quinn administration in 2013 and the Blagojevich administration in 2003.
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget has made negotiating with the providers of letters of credit a priority with the goal to renew or replace them prior to the expiration date of November 27, 2016. […]
In October of 2003, the Blagojevich Administration negotiated five separate, interest rates exchange agreements totaling $600 million. At the time they cost the state 4.16% in interest and fees, they now cost Illinois 6.79% in interest and fees.
The payouts the State would owe to banks now if all the swaps were terminated is approximately $150 million. If the letters of credit are not renewed or replaced, there would be additional obligations on the State.
But few things stay secret for long in politics, and after checking with political insiders, I was pointed to the Civic Committee, which ran a somewhat similar public reform campaign a couple of years ago using the name Illinois Is Broke.
I’m told the new campaign likely will cost at least $1 million, with ads running on the Chicago Tribune’s website and other media outlets statewide.
“We created this campaign to give Illinois citizens, no matter their politics, the opportunity to visibly demonstrate their concerns and frustrations over the failed leadership in our state,” committee President Ty Fahner says in a statement. “Our hope is that this campaign will be loud enough that they will have no choice but to hear us and act on a responsible, bipartisan budget. There is nothing laughable about doing nothing anymore.”
In a follow-up interview, Fahner said the group intentionally is not taking a position on whether the budget stalemate is more the fault of Gov. Bruce Rauner, who wants concessions on worker compensation and other labor issues before approving a tax hike, or House Speaker Mike Madigan, who says the budget should not be held “hostage.”
“We’re not giving them (that) advice,” Fahner said. “But they can’t solve problems if they don’t talk,” something that Rauner and Democratic leaders have rarely done since early summer.
Yeah, all they need to do is talk it out. Right. That’ll work. You’ve got a Randian governor hellbent on hobbling if not outright destroying the Democratic Party’s biggest sources of support (labor, trial lawyers) and a formerly centrist House Speaker who has moved significantly to the left since his primary challenge last spring (remember his CTU campaign signs?).
The governor is spending tens of millions of dollars to further tarnish Madigan in legislative campaigns, and one of Rauner’s allies is about to debut a “documentary” about the man. Madigan, for his part, is unloading on Rauner, comparing him to Donald Trump and using Rauner wherever he can to tarnish Republican candidates.
This war will end when those two guys want it to end, and not a minute before.
They should’ve just given me that million dollars. I could’ve gotten them the same results.
* More data from that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by an overwhelming 53 percent to 28 percent margin among likely voters in the 2016 race for president in Illinois, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
Libertarian Gary Johnson garnered 5 percent and the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, received 2 percent support. Nine percent said they remained undecided at this point.
The poll was conducted in the week after the first debate starting on Tuesday, September 27 and ending on Sunday, October 2. The sample included 1,000 registered voters, 865 of whom said they were likely voters. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
The poll also showed:
*Republican Senator Mark Kirk trailing his challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. This race showed Duckworth with a lead of 48 percent to Kirk’s 34 percent among likely voters. The Libertarian candidate, Kent McMillen, received the support of 3 percent of the respondents while 2 percent said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, Scott Summers, and 10 percent remained undecided. […]
The poll showed Clinton winning by 67 percent to Trump’s 19 percent in the City of Chicago where Democratic candidates usually do well while Trump is more competitive downstate where the candidates are essentially tied (Trump 40 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent). Suburban Cook and the collar counties are where the balance of power resides in Illinois and Clinton is winning there by about 30 percentage points (Clinton 56 percent to Trump 25 percent).
In the U.S. Senate race, the geographic breakdown is 61 percent for Duckworth in the city of Chicago to 26 percent for Kirk. In suburban Cook and the collar counties, 51 percent plan to vote for Duckworth compared to 31 percent for Kirk. Downstate Kirk is winning with 44 percent compared to Duckworth’s 36 percent.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE 1 *** This Duckworth poll and all the other polls we’ve seen lately explain this move…
NEWS: The @dscc cancels $2.9M in spending from Oct. 17 to Oct. 24 in three states: Florida, Wisconsin and Illinois. https://t.co/BIM7lfllT2
* More from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s recent poll…
In the race for state Comptroller, incumbent Leslie Munger is running to retain the seat she was appointed to by Governor Rauner upon the death of Judy Baar Topinka. She is being challenged by Democrat Susana Mendoza. Mendoza is leading by a 40 percent to 32 percent margin among likely voters. There is a large 22 percent of the voters who remain undecided. […]
Mendoza is leading in the City of Chicago at 52 percent compared to Munger’s 23 percent. Downstate the incumbent, Munger, is leading by 43 percent compared to Mendoza’s 28 percent. The balance of power is held in the Cook county suburbs and collar counties where Mendoza is leading by 42 percent to Munger’s 28 percent.
* That collar county result seems odd to me. Just keep in mind that subsets have much higher margins of error than do the full statewide results…
I’ve seen a couple of other private polls on this race that I wasn’t allowed to share, but they were both pretty close to the state’s generic partisan ballot. This one isn’t far off, either. And it’s why Munger’s TV ad campaign is absolutely crucial.
* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute has a new poll out. Let’s start with approval ratings for the governor and the two chamber leaders…
The advertising in many of the 2016 legislative campaigns in Illinois has focused largely on three people who are not on the ballot, that is, Governor Bruce Rauner, Speaker of the House Michael Madigan, and Senate President John Cullerton. The poll asked whether the respondents approved or disapproved of the job each was doing.
The results for Rauner show that his job approval ratings are underwater with 40 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving and 55 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving of the job he is doing.
However, the governor is more popular downstate where he is somewhat closer to positive territory with 45 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving of the job he is doing. In the suburban areas, Rauner is in negative territory with 55 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving.
The Governor’s biggest problem is in the City of Chicago where his disapproval outnumbers starkly overtake his approval (62 percent to 34 percent).
Speaker Madigan’s overall job approval ratings are also in negative territory with 63 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving and 26 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving.
Madigan’s best job approval ratings are in the City of Chicago where the ratings are 32 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove. His suburban Cook and collar county job approval ratings are 28 percent approve to 59 percent disapprove. Downstate yields the harshest assessment of the Speaker’s tenure with 73 percent disapproving and 20 percent approving.
In the recent negative ads wars, Senate President John Cullerton has not been the lightning rod that the Speaker has. There are 41 percent who disapprove or strongly disapprove of Cullerton’s performance while 26 percent approve and 29 percent aren’t sure.
* Notice the intensity of “strongly disapprove” on Gov. Rauner…
* Now compare that same intensity to Speaker Madigan’s ratings…
Yikes.
* And here’s Cullerton…
* OK, now on to Rauner by region…
* Compare that to Madigan by region…
Keep in mind that Madigan has a bunch of Downstate races where he has incumbents and some much-ballyhooed challengers.
Oof.
* Methodology…
The margin of error for the entire sample of 1,000 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters (n=865) is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin for error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects.
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.
Field work was conducted from September 27-October 2. No auto-dial or “robo” polling is included. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund. The data were not weighted in any way. Crosstabs for the referenced questions will be on the Institute’s polling web site, simonpoll.org.
More results in a bit.
…Adding… Some folks in comments are completely missing the point. Yes, Madigan doesn’t have to run statewide. No duh. But he has become the major “issue” in House campaigns throughout the state. If the House Democrats had a presidential or other statewide type polling as badly as Madigan is, they’d be running away from that person as fast as humanly possible in order to avoid being dragged down by him/her. But the Dems can’t run away from Madigan because that’s where they get their money.
Same goes for the Republicans, by the way. Not many viable House Republican candidates/incumbents are cheering on Gov. Rauner. He’s definitely a drag. He’s just not as big of a drag yet as Madigan.
20th District: If you want to send another Michael Madigan “Mini-Me” to Springfield, then vote for Merry Marwig, the Democratic candidate in this Northwest Side/suburban district who is following the Madigan playbook. She’s accepting thousands of dollars from Madigan’s campaign funds. She’s attacking her opponent, Rep. Michael McAuliffe, R-Chicago, with untruthful mail pieces. And she’s lying low, rarely speaking publicly or answering questions. McAuliffe is the only Republican in the House who represents part of Chicago. You want even more one-party, draconian rule in Springfield? Then vote for the “Mini-Me.” We’re endorsing McAuliffe.
* The Question: On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest, how much impact will “the Speaker Madigan issue” have on House races this November? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 600 likely voters in Illinois. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted September 27-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4%.
• Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has weathered nearly a million dollars of false attacks on TV during the month of September alone and has expanded her lead over Senator Mark Kirk to 46% to 37%.
• These improvements for Duckworth took place without any commensurate advantage in the presidential race. The presidential race remains steady in Illinois.
The current poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 52%-35%. Our August 1-4 poll showed Clinton leading Trump 51%-32%.
Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth continues to expand her lead over incumbent Senator Mark Kirk, 46%-37%. As the chart below indicates, this nine-point lead is an increase from the August 1-4 poll that showed Duckworth besting Kirk 44%-37%, a seven-point lead. Duckworth remains ahead among constituencies critical to Kirk’s success in November, including Independents (45%-30%) and among Veteran households (44%-40%). Moreover, she maintains strong leads among core Democratic constituencies of African American (70%-8%), Hispanic (62%-26%), and women (46%-36%) voters.
In September, Kirk and Republican special interest groups spent nearly one million dollars attacking Duckworth both Downstate in the Chicago media market with false ads about her record on Veterans and commitment to fighting terrorism. Despite these attacks, Duckworth maintains a 29-point margin over Kirk for which candidate is dedicated to helping Veterans (44%-15%) and an 8-point lead on Is someone we can count on to keep America safe (30%-22%).
Not only is Duckworth pulling farther ahead but voters have increasing negative impressions of Kirk. As the chart above shows, his favorable rating has steadily eroded since the summer and he is now five points underwater.
God forbid your teenage son is arrested in Illinois on the Friday before a three-day holiday weekend.
Even for an offense as minor as retail theft, as a juvenile he could sit locked up all weekend, and not stand before a judge to determine if he deserves to be charged or detained until the following Tuesday.
Across Illinois, Juvenile Courts are closed on weekends and holidays. But the courts are open for adults 365 days a year. They generally get hearings within 24 hours of arrest.
That discrepancy is expected to end in Cook County next month, thanks to a federal court suit filed by four parents and some tough talk from U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Durkin. Under an agreement being worked out in that case, Cook County is expected to start holding detention hearings for juveniles within 24 hours of arrest.
That’s a change that should be established statewide. Teens are far more vulnerable – and redeemable – than adults. They should be entitled to post-arrest court hearings in every county in the same time frame granted adults, if not sooner.
Gov. Bruce Rauner is pushing a bill that would provide released convicts with state identification cards in an effort to reduce rates of prison returnees.
The bill, which was passed unanimously through the Illinois Senate in April, aims to reduce recidivism, or relapse in criminal behavior or imprisonment. The bill has bipartisan support, Rauner said. Having a state ID will help former convicts obtain a bank account, an apartment lease or a cell phone, he said.
“In order to combat recidivism we need to remove some of the hurdles offenders face when they are released from a detention facility and begin to re-integrate into society,” Rauner said in a news release. “In this case, it’s the simple step of providing an offender with a state ID.”
The bill requires the State Department to issue an ID to any prisoner upon release if they present a birth certificate, a social security card and two proofs of address. For those without those documents, the Department will issue an ID that is valid for 90 days if the prisoner is able to present a verified document from the Department of Corrections or Juvenile Justice with their name, birth date, social security number and proof of address.
The bill is not yet perfect, Flowers said, because it implies the [Secretary of State] has employees in correction centers who are able to give the prisoners IDs when they are released.
* Could TIF surpluses avert a teachers strike? Maybe, says the Tribune…
With an Oct. 11 strike date looming, sources on both sides privately have expressed guarded optimism that a deal can get done.
Emerging as a likely key to any pact is how much money from the special taxing district Emanuel is willing to direct to Chicago Public Schools. […]
“The settlement hinges on money coming from a development slush fund into the public school system,” CTU Vice President Jesse Sharkey said last week. “That’s what the settlement hinges on. It’s about the money.” […]
Last year, the amount declared as surplus was particularly large at $113 million, with CPS getting more than half. But pressure to direct more funding from TIFs to schools grew in June, when Cook County Clerk David Orr reported that the city’s total take in 2015 from 146 tax districts grew by $89 million, to $461 million. […]
Sharkey said if CPS received its share of the total overall surplus, not just the $32 million that has been budgeted, “there’d be enough money to pay for a whole number of things that we’re asking for.”
As the mayor says in the story, however, this isn’t a longterm solution.
The way some business interests describe Illinois’ tax climate, one might think it’s about the worst in the nation.
Not so, according to the Tax Foundation, a tax policy research organization. The group’s annual State Business Tax Climate Index ranked Illinois 23rd.
That’s well above California, New York and New Jersey, deemed the nation’s three worst. All of our neighboring states also fared worse, with the exception of Indiana, which was ranked eighth in the nation.
But Illinois made the bottom 10 — at 46th — for its property tax structure. Real estate taxes are high in Illinois because that’s the primary mechanism used to fund local schools.
As the piece goes on to note, Illinois’ ranking will undoubtedly fall once again as soon as the state income tax is raised.
Anecdotes about the impact of state tax systems on business investment are plentiful. In Illinois early last decade, hundreds of millions of dollars of capital investments were delayed when then-Governor Rod Blagojevich proposed a hefty gross receipts tax. Only when the legislature resoundingly defeated the bill did the investment resume.
So one can only wonder what impact an uncertain fiscal future has on the current biz climate.
With less than six weeks until Election Day, Democratic challenger and former Congressman Brad Schneider leads incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Dold, 46%-41% in the rematch contest for the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. […]
o Dold’s favorable rating remains objectively low at 34%-29%. Voters know him but they certainly do not like him.
o His job rating is weak, with just 38% of voters rating his performance as “excellent” or “good” and 35% rating his “not so good” or “poor.”
o Moreover, despite Dold’s repeated attempts to mischaracterize Schneider’s position on the Iran deal to persuade Jewish voters, they remain solidly with Schneider.
Not only does Schneider hold a five-point lead, but the political environment also strongly favors him:
o President Barack Obama is increasingly popular, with a favorable rating of 60%-31% and a job rating of 61%-37%. Both of these measures are better than in 2012 when Schneider first defeated Dold.
o Donald Trump is a major liability for Dold. He is nearly universally unpopular with a favorable rating of 25%-64%, with 49% rating him very unfavorable. Hillary Clinton has a 27-point lead over Trump in the race for president, 59%-32%.
The problem for Schneider is that he’s so badly trailing the top of the ticket.
Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones (51% landlines, 49% mobile). Interviews were conducted September 28-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4.9%.
* Meanwhile, from Illinois Review…
DOLD SNUBS GOP NOMINEE TRUMP AND PARTY PLATFORM IN LATEST AD
Congressman Bob Dold (IL-10) is very proud of his independence from the Republican Party’s presidential nominee and the GOP’s conservative leadership in the U.S. House. He boasts of how he’s parted with their pro-Second Amendment and pro-life positions in his new ad:
Thanks to hefty infusions of cash from multimillionaire Rauner and his wealthy supporters, the Illinois Republican Party topped the Democrats by taking in about $21 million since July 2015, state records show. Liberty Principles, a super PAC supporting Republicans, took in another $10 million.
“I’ve witnessed and been part of campaigns where we’ve been outspent by two or three times by the House Democrats,” said Jim Durkin, the House Republican leader. “Now we’re competing dollar for dollar statewide.”
Over the same period, the four political committees that Madigan controls — including the state Democratic Party, which he chairs — have collected more than $14 million. The top donors, as in years past, are unions and their political action committees. […]
By using multiple political committees, Madigan and his allies are able to gather more money from donors than would be allowed for a single committee under state campaign finance laws. Funds also are being moved from one committee to another. […]
As [Rep. Kate Cloonen’s] race grows more heated and expensive — at $1.7 million and counting — her challenger, attorney Lindsay Parkhurst, has received support from Liberty Principles, Proft’s Republican super PAC.
While she fights for her political life, Cloonen’s committee also has become a piggy bank for others. In the last week, more than $300,000 in contributions to her have been redistributed to Madigan’s committees and other campaign funds, including those of several legislators in tough races.
Those transfers by Cloonen are a bit weird, and I went through them with subscribers last week.
* From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform…
Contribution limits are also lifted if independent expenditures supporting or opposing a single candidate in a race exceed $250,000 in statewide races or $100,000 in all other races. The $100,000 mark has been passed in 3 House and 2 Senate races thus far.
The House districts affected are:
46th: Deb Conroy (D) vs. Heidi Holan (R)
59th: Carol Sente (D) vs. Dawn Abernathy (R)
72nd: Michael Halpin (D) vs. Brandi McGuire (R)
The Senate districts affected are:
28th: Laura Murphy (D) vs. Mel Thillens (R)
49th: Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant (D) vs. Michelle Smith (R)
So far, limits have been removed in a total of 9 races at various levels of government, including the House 114th District, where candidate Bob Romanik (R) has self-funded his campaign against Latoya Greenwood (D) with over $2 million. A total of 16 races saw limits lifted in advance of the March Illinois Primary.
* More…
The Illinois Republican Party transferred another $375K to the RSSCC. https://t.co/0mwhSNEoCw
Gannett’s long quest to buy the newspaper company known as Tronc is nearing the finish line.
Confidential sources have told POLITICO that asset purchase agreement drafts have been exchanged by Gannett, the country’s second-largest newspaper chain and publisher of USA Today, and Tronc, formerly known as Tribune Publishing and the publisher of such broadsheet mainstays as The Los Angeles Times, The Chicago Tribune and The Baltimore Sun. The announcement of a deal could come as soon as business opens on the fourth quarter of the year, as early as Monday morning. […]
While the public had become well aware of Ferro’s aversion to selling, it hadn’t realized other complications of the deal. Financing looks like it is now in place for Gannett, with Jefferies LLC, a large American global investment bank, in place, financial sources said. As I reported earlier, Gannett had run into financing issues with large banks, including JP Morgan, growing wary of a deal. There were two main factors to their hesitation: First, the increasingly high price of the acquisition makes its financial justification tougher to certify, with Gannett’s leverage ratios apparently one question. Secondly, the further cratering of print advertising and sluggishness of digital advertising complicate further assessment of forward value.
Investors generally have shared the concern that Gannett could be overreaching in what would be its third significant acquisition since the newspaper operations split from old Gannett (newspapers and broadcast stations, now assembled as TEGNA) two years ago. As the stock market has hit new highs, Gannett has seen a drop of 40 percent in share price since it began its quest for Tribune/Tronc.
For its part, Gannett has remained bullish on the deal, believing it can wring large cost-saving synergies by combining many operations.
When Gannett’s purchase of Tronc becomes official, Gannett will own the #3, #4, #10, #20, and #23 newspapers in the country. pic.twitter.com/pm0ChsxCh4
The Illinois state treasurer plans to announce that the state will suspend billions of dollars of investment activity with Wells Fargo.
Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs plans a Monday morning news conference in Chicago to give details about a moratorium on state business with Wells Fargo.
U.S. and California regulators have fined San Francisco-based Wells Fargo $185 million, saying employees who were trying to meet sales targets opened up to 2 million fake accounts without customers’ knowledge. The abuses are said to have gone on for years, unchecked by senior management.
Wells Fargo made the list of 15 senior underwriters tapped by Illinois this month for bond sales over the next three years. A spokeswoman for Governor Bruce Rauner declined to comment on whether his office is rethinking Wells Fargo’s selection.
Chicago Treasurer Kurt Summers plans to divest $25 million the city has invested with Wells Fargo & Co. after the company admitted to opening potentially millions of bogus client accounts, joining state officials who have pulled business from the bank because of the scandal.
Summers, whose office manages the city’s $7 billion investment portfolio, plans to “unwind these assets as expeditious as possible in a fashion that is prudent and will protect taxpayer money,’’ according to a statement from his office sent to Bloomberg News.
“Today, the Office of the City Treasurer is proud to stand with working families from Chicago and across the nation by divesting in Wells Fargo & Co.,’’ according to the e-mailed statement. “Chicago deserves better.’’
*** UPDATE *** I’m told the Rauner administration won’t be using Wells Fargo for any new bond sales “until further notice.” The administration hasn’t done any bond business with Wells Fargo to date, and it chose not to do business with Wells Fargo on the current bond deal that’s in progress.
Rick Renteria is managing in Chicago again. This time, on the South Side of town.
The White Sox on Monday named Renteria as the 40th manager in club history, replacing Robin Ventura, who managed his last game Sunday after five seasons.
Renteria, hired by the Theo Epstein regime but fired with two years left on his Cubs contract after the 2014 season when Joe Maddon became available, sat out of baseball during the 2015 season before returning as Ventura’s bench coach this season. He managed the Cubs to a 73-89 record during a rebuilding year.
The Sox were 375-435 under Ventura, including 78-84 this year. The Sun-Times first reported Saturday that Renteria would be named as his replacement Monday.
S&P Global Ratings dropped Illinois’ credit rating one notch to BBB on Friday and warned it could fall further absent a long-term solution that deals with the state’s chronic structural budget deficit and pension woes.
“The downgrade reflects our view of continued weak financial management and increased long-term and short-term pressures tied to declining pension funded levels,” said S&P analyst John Sugden in a statement.
Illinois, the lowest-rated U.S. state, is in its second straight fiscal year without a complete budget due to an impasse between its Republican governor and Democrats who control the legislature.
The impasse, along with a $111 billion unfunded pension liability and a growing pile of unpaid bills have pounded Illinois’ credit ratings into the low-investment grade triple-B level.
S&P said another downgrade could follow “should the state continue to demonstrate a lack of ability or willingness to adopt a long-term structural budget solution that also incorporates a credible approach to its long-term liabilities.”
Moody’s Investors Service has assigned a Baa2 rating to the State of Illinois’ $1.8 billion of general obligation (GO) bonds in two series, the General Obligation Refunding Bonds, Series of October 2016, and General Obligation Bonds, Series of November 2016. The rating factors in severely underfunded pension plans, failure to address a structural deficit because of a political impasse, and narrow operating fund liquidity that is driving up a backlog of unpaid bills. Offsetting these challenging conditions are the state’s large, diverse economic base; legal provisions that ensure continued debt payment even with no enacted budget, and the powers common to US states, such as control over revenue and spending. […]
Credit Challenges
» Political paralysis that has impeded efforts to pass appropriation legislation or achieve structural balance for a second year
» Severe pension funding shortfall and growing adjusted net pension liability (ANPL)
» Chronic use of payment deferrals to manage operating fund cash
» Weak management practices shown by pension underfunding, payment delays and recurring negative fund balances
* And while everybody talks about pensions, Greg Hinz concludes it’s time to just fund ‘em fully and move the heck on…
That, though, still leaves the mortgage—the $111 billion owed to Tier 1 folks, money that justices have ruled we cannot avoid paying.
Some say the state ought to ignore the Supreme Court and stiff the pensioners. Not in this state. Others argue that a “consideration” model could be used to cut benefits in Tier 1. That’s a long shot. So is amending the constitution. As for declaring bankruptcy to shed the debt, it’s not legal for states. I like the idea of lump-sum employee buyouts, but where do you get the lump sum?
That leaves one solution: Suck it up and pay. That won’t be easy. A recent blog post by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago concluded, “Illinois has little room to increase taxes without reducing economic activity in ways that would be damaging.”
But instability is more damaging, I now think. Delaying the day of reckoning just drives up the ultimate price tag. And maybe it all doesn’t have to come from taxes. Perhaps public employee unions can be convinced to make concessions on pay or work rules in exchange for the luxurious guaranteed 3 percent annual increases they’re getting in pension benefits at a time of 1 percent inflation.
If the state’s economy remains slack and investment returns remain low, Illinois and a lot of other states are going to have big, big problems. But at least we won’t be denying reality and can-kicking anymore. That would be a start.
The Illinois comptroller’s election is often described as a proxy war between Gov. Bruce Rauner and House Speaker Michael Madigan. It is most definitely that, but the result could change the direction of state government.
Rauner appointed fellow Republican Leslie Munger to the job after Judy Baar Topinka, the fiercely independent and outspoken Republican incumbent, died about a month after her re-election in 2014. Normally, Munger would’ve received a full four-year term, but Madigan decided that was too long so the Democrats changed the law. Rauner could appoint Munger for two years only.
Several months after Munger’s appointment, Madigan helped recruit Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza into the race. And then he, um, nudged state Sen. Daniel Biss out of the Democratic primary to give Mendoza a clear path to the general election.
As a matter of both pride and credibility, the governor has an obligation to help his appointee win. And since Rauner and Madigan are engaged in a long and nasty war, and since Mendoza is Madigan’s candidate, the speaker most definitely wants to see her prevail.
Whoever wins this contest will obviously give their political overlords bragging rights. Normally, a Democrat would be heavily favored because it’s a presidential election year. But the spectacularly wealthy Rauner is expected to dump a fortune into Munger’s campaign.
Gov. Rauner attended a meeting last week of his “Cabinet on Children & Youth,” but it’s not known if he pulled aside one of its members, State Superintendent of Education Tony Smith, for a little chat.
The Illinois State Board of Education is reportedly mulling whether to settle a civil rights lawsuit filed eight years ago by the Chicago Urban League. The suit essentially claims that Illinois’ education funding system violates minority students’ rights because a disproportionate number of those kids reside in areas with the lowest property wealth and also attend schools with majority-minority enrollment. They’re basically getting shafted by the state, so they sued.
According to the Urban League’s CEO Shari Runner, the ISBE “walked away from lengthy settlement talks that we held this summer.” The group has filed a motion for summary judgment and Runner said last week it is “awaiting ISBE’s response.” Runner said the group hopes to “hold ISBE liable for implementing an unlawful and discriminatory school system.”
A settlement would drastically alter the way Illinois funds its school system, with wealthier suburban and Downstate districts losing tons of state money. It would also preempt long-stalled legislative action on the topic.
Last summer, when negotiations with the Urban League were still apparently underway, Gov. Rauner impaneled an education funding reform working group and charged it with coming up with a solution to the funding inequities by the first of next year. So, the Urban League’s civil rights lawsuit may actually be why Rauner imposed such an ambitious timetable.
What the administration doesn’t want (along with a whole lot of impacted legislators) is to take the tricky solution out of the hands of the governor and the General Assembly and give it to a Cook County judge. But there’s no guarantee that the governor’s funding reform working group will come to an agreement. A deal is politically complicated because legislators who represent wealthier school districts also tend to oppose tax hikes. But they’ll be forced to choose between losing state cash or voting for higher state taxes. Some might actually welcome judicial intervention to spare them this fate.
Word from inside is that some ISBE legal staff are urging board members to settle the suit. The board’s chief legal counsel, for instance, is a former Chicago Public Schools chief of staff. The city’s school system filed an amicus brief years ago supporting the Urban League case.
Perhaps more importantly, though, a massive amount of supporting data has been compiled since the suit was brought all those years ago, mainly because of state Sen. Andy Manar’s constant push to reform the system. The plaintiffs might be able to make their case more easily now than they could when their suit was filed. So, the logic goes, a settlement would be far better than a loss.
Superintendent Smith has made no bones about the fact that the state’s funding system is archaic and harmful to minority children, but he apparently hasn’t spoken up in the last couple of private board meetings when members discussed the litigation, and one board member swears Smith is not communicating directly with members about the case. Still, rumors abound that he is driving the settlement talks.
Smith has recently upped his national profile by traveling the country to talk about various education issues. He is not a popular man within the administration for several reasons, and his generous employment contract caused the Rauner folks quite a few headaches last year. Some Republicans claim he’s angling for a spot in a potential Hillary Clinton administration, which he has denied.
State Board of Education Chairman James Meeks, a former state Senator who pushed hard for education funding reform for years and was one of a tiny number of high-profile African-Americans to support Rauner’s 2014 election, has reportedly not taken an official position on the litigation. Meeks is said to be suggesting that board members also talk with the governor’s legal counsel to get another side of the issue. The board insists that Smith doesn’t have the authority to settle the case on his own, and there’s no indication at this moment that he plans to do so.
A settlement would also create a thorny political problem for Gov. Rauner down the road. A big chunk of his political base would get the short end of the stick, which won’t go over well when he runs for reelection in 2018.
Ironically, the state government got itself dismissed from the case several years ago, so I suppose we could see the administration try to get itself back into the game if the ISBE decides to move forward with a settlement.
