* Politico’s Edward-Isaac Dovere…
As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year’s Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform — with the aim of taking on the gerrymandering that’s left the party behind in statehouses and made winning a House majority far more difficult.
The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group — which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps — as the main focus of his political activity once he leaves office.
Though initial plans to be active in this year’s elections fell short, the group has been incorporated as a 527, with Democratic Governors Association executive director Elisabeth Pearson as its president and House Majority PAC executive director Ali Lapp as its vice president. They’ve been pitching donors and aiming to put together its first phase action plan for December, moving first in the Virginia and New Jersey state elections next year and with an eye toward coordination across gubernatorial, state legislative and House races going into the 2018 midterms.
“American voters deserve fair maps that represent our diverse communities — and we need a coordinated strategy to make that happen,” Holder said. “This unprecedented new effort will ensure Democrats have a seat at the table to create fairer maps after 2020.”
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Question of the day
Monday, Oct 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune editorial board fondly looks back on the 1985 Bears and ahead to the MLB playoffs…
What epitomized that swagger? All of us old enough to recall know the answer: The prescient “Super Bowl Shuffle” was released three months before the Bears walloped the New England Patriots 46-10 in the Superdome. Walter Payton, Jim McMahon and the other Shufflers rapped, and while they lacked Snoop Dogg’s vibe, they had enough groove to make it to No. 41 on Billboard’s top singles chart.
The Cubs, now entering the National League Championship Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, also have been doing more than just winning — and winning a lot. There’s a style to their triumph. It’s buoyant confidence, of course, and the team’s talent justifies that confidence. But it’s also a playfulness that reminds us that the game should never be only about signing bonuses and eight-digit salaries. Manager Joe Maddon’s mantra says it all: “Never let the pressure exceed the pleasure.” The Cubs have carved out an identity that makes us forget about the goat and the fan and the black cat.
If there’s something missing in the Cubs’ swagger, it’s a song that, like the Shuffle, predestines winning it all. It’s not too late, Chicago lyricists. And why not a dance as well? “The World Series Dab?” “The Fall Classic Nae Nae?”
* The Question: The 2016 Cubs “swagger song”?
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* Crain’s Chicago Business on the “hidden costs” of Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s proposed budget…
After imposing more than $1.1 billion in new taxes last year, Emanuel apparently has decided not to push the limits of the public’s patience any further. His negotiators largely caved to the Chicago Teachers Union, particularly on the mayor’s previous insistence that teachers contribute more to their pensions. Sources involved in the negotiations tell Crain’s political columnist Greg Hinz that CPS teacher costs over the four years covered in the tentative contract will rise 3.7 percent—twice the 1.75 percent hike proposed in the deal teachers rejected early this year.
Meanwhile, Emanuel’s $3.72 billion budget proposal draws down $175 million in cash from the city’s tax-increment financing kitty, a far bigger diversion than the mayor has allowed in recent years. That drawdown represents almost 40 percent of the $460 million the city is taking in from all TIF districts this year.
Emanuel is dipping into the same TIF honeypot that his predecessor, Richard M. Daley, liked to raid when he needed fast dough. The trouble is, TIF funds exist for a reason: to finance needed infrastructure and neighborhood improvements. And yet, time and again, TIF proceeds are treated like a convenient mayoral rainy-day fund, a place to look for extra money when tougher choices prove politically unpalatable.
With that TIF money in hand, Emanuel’s CPS team didn’t have to really squeeze teachers. And with that TIF money in hand, Emanuel didn’t have to force Chicagoans to face facts: Our government still costs more than it brings in.
The mayor may have rehabilitated his re-election prospects, but Chicago’s financial rehabilitation remains very much incomplete.
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Rauner forms “Competitiveness Council”
Monday, Oct 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
Governor Bruce Rauner today announced a comprehensive plan to promote economic growth and job creation by cutting the red tape in Illinois. He signed Executive Order 16-13 to review all agency rules and regulations by the newly-created Illinois Competiveness Council.
“For years, Illinois has added layers and layers of burdensome rules and regulations to a never-ending bureaucracy,” Governor Rauner said. “It’s an endless line of red tape that creates a barrier for small businesses and entrepreneurs. By cutting the red tape, we are creating an environment where they can succeed.”
The Illinois Competitiveness Council will be comprised of a representative of each of Illinois’ regulatory state agencies. Its goal is to save Illinoisans at least $250 million in direct license fee costs over the next decade, and save Illinois taxpayers and business owners at least 4 million pages in paperwork. It will work to ensure current regulations are up to date and relevant to today’s industries and practices; ensure the language in rules are easy to understand; reduce the amount of unduly burdensome requirements on businesses, social service providers, and citizens through both time and cost; and ensure there is a clear need for the regulation.
“Illinois is currently a patchwork of duplicative, contradictory and outdated regulations,” said U-Jung Choe, Chairwoman of the Illinois Competitive Council. “The Illinois Competitiveness Council will take an all-encompassing look at the state’s policies, rules and regulations to cultivate an atmosphere that makes it easier for small businesses and entrepreneurs to grow and flourish.”
In addition, the Illinois Competitiveness Council will look for recommendations to improve Illinois’ licensing environment to promote job growth and job creation. Currently, the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (IDFPR) has more than a million active licenses in more than 200 license categories, however for nearly a third, IDFPR has issued fewer than 100 licenses. The growth of these licenses has increased 184 percent in the last 20 years.
“Clearing out red tape liberates everyone — teachers, doctors, small businesses, and public servants,” said Philip Howard, founder of the Common Good, a nonpartisan reform coalition. “It’s hard to compete in a fast-moving world when hacking through a bureaucratic jungle. Modernizing regulation will make government better and Illinois more competitive.”
Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado, and Massachusetts have all successfully reviewed their rules and cut red tape to give their citizens a more competitive advantage over Illinois citizens. Burdensome and unnecessary regulations, policies and licensing requirements disproportionately impact small businesses, particularly minority-owned businesses.
In order to have the greatest impact, the Illinois Competitiveness Council is seeking input from the public on which rules and regulations are the biggest hindrance to people and businesses. Anyone can submit feedback to cut the red tape at www.illinois.gov/cut.
Discuss.
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Unclear on the concept
Monday, Oct 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Independent Voter Project…
Illinois may demonstrate that the current process of partisans drawing districts produces uncompetitive elections.
Of Illinois’ 18 congressional districts, only the 10th is certain to be competitive. In that North Shore district, Republican incumbent Robert Dold faces Democrat Brad Schneider for the third consecutive time. The candidates have alternated electoral victories since 2012.
Democrat Tammy Duckworth vacated her seat to run for U.S. Senate, making the 8th district the only open seat in the state. Although an open seat theoretically could be competitive, the northwest Chicago district still leans Democratic. According to the latest reports at OpenSecrets.org, Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi is outspending Republican Pete DiCianni nearly 100 to 1.
Four districts feature candidates running unopposed. Democrats held a monopoly drawing districts after the 2010 U.S. Census. However, two of those districts are held by the GOP. Republican John Shimkus, for instance, is running unopposed and his seat covers one of the larger geographic areas in the country.
Um, actually the Republicans currently hold two congressional seats that were drawn for Democrats (Rodney Davis and Mike Bost). So, it can be done.
And those four unopposed incumbents are Lipinski, Gutierrez, Shimkus and Kinzinger.
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* Most politicians would run away from this idea so fast you’d miss it if you blinked. One mistake and, poof, there goes the career. So, kudos to Sheriff Dart for asking for this authority…
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart plans to push for legislation allowing his office to seek lower bails for financially strapped detainees.
State Rep. La Shawn Ford, D-Chicago, says he’ll work to amend Illinois law to add the sheriff’s office to the list of parties that can seek a reduction in bail — which already includes prosecutors and defense attorneys. […]
Ford called the current bail system unfair because those with access to money can post the necessary bond to go free while awaiting trial but indigent people can’t.
He said he thinks the courts should support the legislation because “it still leaves it up to the discretion of the judges.”
Cara Smith, the sheriff’s policy chief, said 1,024 “turnarounds” were held in the jail last year — people who’d spent so much time in custody that, once they were sentenced to state prison, they already had served every day of their prison sentence. In fact, on average, they each served 2½ months of extra time, according to Smith. Most of them had been jailed for nonviolent crimes.
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* AP…
Caterpillar said Monday that CEO and Chairman Doug Oberhelman will retire from the company next year and will be replaced as CEO by Jim Umpleby, an executive who has worked at the construction and mining equipment company for more than three decades. […]
Caterpillar has been dealing with falling sales because its customers have been hurt by falling oil prices and slower economic growth around the world, causing them to buy less equipment from Caterpillar.
* The Wall St. Journal has amounts to a career obituary today. The title is “How Caterpillar’s Big Bet Backfired” and it’s not all that kind…
Doug Oberhelman spent his first years as Caterpillar Inc.’s chief executive plowing billions of dollars into factories to build more of its familiar yellow machines and move the company deeper into mining equipment.
It was a bold bet, spectacularly mistimed. On Monday, Mr. Oberhelman announced plans to step down as chief executive by year’s end.
In 2010, when he took charge, the world was gripped by a global commodities boom, along with strong postrecession demand from developing markets and the energy industry. The world was ordering excavators and bulldozers and giant dump trucks at a rapid clip.
Mr. Oberhelman bet he could grab an outsize share if he could just make more equipment. He spent almost $10 billion world-wide on plants and equipment from 2010 through 2013.
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* From the West Central Mass Transit District’s website…
The West Central Mass Transit District announced today that all of its transportation services in the six county area including Morgan, Scott, Cass, Schuyler, Brown and Pike will be suspended as of the end of the business on Saturday, October 15, 2016. Suspension of services comes after the notification by the Illinois Comptroller’s office that State Grant fund payments will not be made before December 2016. Public transportation services will not be reinstated until such time that funds owed to the system by the State of Illinois Department of Transportation are received. West Central Mass Transit District is awaiting payment of two IDOT approved requisitions currently at the Comptroller’s office totaling $696,620.00.
* SJ-R…
All 57 employees of the district have been issued layoff notices effective at the end of business Saturday, said executive director R. Jean Jumper.
Jumper said the agency is owed over $696,000 from downstate transportation grants for the first two quarters of the fiscal year that started July 1. The Jacksonville-based agency also gets some federal money, but that hasn’t arrived either because the Illinois Department of Transportation hasn’t processed contracts that would allow the district to collect the money, Jumper said. […]
Money for the grant comes from a portion of the state sales tax, part of the state’s general revenue fund that is stretched beyond its limits trying to cover all of the state’s bills. […]
The district serves Morgan, Scott, Cass, Schuyler, Brown and Pike counties. It is a demand-and-response district where riders call for appointments to receive transportation. Jumper said the district provides 190,000 to 200,000 trips a year.
I happen to know somebody who relies on that particular service. She’s an elderly woman who had a massive stroke and her wheelchair won’t fit into her daughter’s car, so she is reliant on the transit district for rides to her doctor appointments.
* As I told subscribers today, this is a growing issue all over the state. 53 Downstate transit systems are owed a combined $156 million. But instead of doing some triage and preventing the most vulnerable systems from shutting down, the comptroller is taking a hands-off approach…
Connect Transit [which serves the Bloomington-Normal area] is one of many transit systems, especially downstate, facing major budget issues because the state is behind on payments to them. Rural provider Show Bus, which serves seven Central Illinois counties, including McLean, DeWitt, Ford and Livingston, also is in danger of suspending service, at an undetermined date.
Rich Carter, a spokesman for Comptroller Leslie Munger, said transit payments are behind due to the state’s ongoing general fund bill backlog, currently $9.3 billion, and low revenue, especially in October and November.
“Payments right now are averaging about four months in arrears,” he said.
Downstate transportation money is generated by state sales tax that flows into the general fund. It’s then transferred to a fund specifically for transportation, but that transfer is overdue.
Transit systems are expected to be paid quarterly, but Connect Transit and Show Bus weren’t paid in July or October. Both draw about two-thirds of their total revenue from the state.
If they’re four months behind, those July payments should’ve arrived already. But they haven’t. In fact, it’s been far longer than four months.
* Kankakee’s transit system will close next month and the system claims they’re still owed money from January…
The River Valley Metro bus system will provide its last ride Nov. 18 if the Illinois comptroller’s office doesn’t release the badly-needed sales tax revenue dedicated to the downstate transportation fund.
An estimated 2,643 rides are provided through the 12-daily routes and two-commuter routes the system maintains each day of the week.
Of the district’s $7 million general budget, more than 65 percent of it comes from the state.
The state has been holding back sales tax money since January, said Rob Hoffmann, River Valley Metro director. In all, the state owes the downstate public transportation system — which includes all the systems outside of the Regional Transportation Authority boundary — about $135 million.
River Valley alone is owed about $3.7 million, said Ken Munjoy, Metro’s general manager. About $2.3 million of that total is from the 2016 fiscal year.
Lots of people depend on that transit system to get them to the nearest Metra stop several miles north of Kankakee.
* More…
The bus system says it will be out of cash by Thanksgiving. The district filed a lawsuit Thursday in the Kankakee County Circuit Court against the state seeking operating money. […]
“The money is simply not available. The only way to stop this free fall is to pass a balanced budget that provides funding to make these payments,” [Rich Carter, spokesman for Illinois Comptroller Leslie Munger] said.
C’mon. You’re telling me there aren’t a few bucks in the couch cushions to keep some of the more vulnerable systems alive for a couple of months?
*** UPDATE 1 *** Apparently, the system currently requires the comptroller to do an “all or nothing” payment to those Downstate transit systems. IDOT can’t break up the vouchers into smaller amounts to keep some of these systems afloat.
This should’ve been addressed in the stopgap legislation. It wasn’t and so here we are. Instead of being on the verge of starving, the hostages just die - or lapse into a coma until December when sales tax money spikes up again.
We need some more revenue, people.
*** UPDATE 2 *** From the comptroller’s office…
Rich,
The months of October and November are very weak revenue months. Our high priority expenditures such as debt service, schools, payroll, foster care, child care, pensions etc. utilize all of the revenue in these weak months and leave us no room to pay anything else. The last time we transferred money into the Downstate Public Transportation Fund was on June 21st and that transfer enabled us to pay all vouchers from that fund. The oldest voucher currently in the Downstate Public Transportation Fund is August 8th which is a little more than two months behind.
Kevin
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Biss super PAC funders revealed
Monday, Oct 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lynn Sweet on Sen. Daniel Biss’ new super PAC, which is spending big bucks to tie Gov. Bruce Rauner to Donald Trump…
The biggest individual Democratic donors in Illinois have joined with pro-Democratic unions to pump jumbo dollars into a new super PAC to punch at Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, the Chicago Sun-Times has learned.
The latest Federal Election Commission filings show $2,316,863 has been spent since Oct. 11 on an ad blitz to oppose Rauner by strongly linking him to GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump. […]
According to the first LIFT donor FEC filing, disclosed on Saturday, the first wave of union donors are: the Fight Back Fund, $262,500; the International Association of Fire Fighters, $60,000; Ironworkers Political Education Fund, $50,000; International Union of Operating Engineers Local 399, $40,000; SEIU HealthCare Illinois, $3,000; and United Food and Commercial Workers Local 881, $30,000. […]
Those publically disclosed donations total $470,500 — yet FEC expenditure records show $1.032 million in ad spending reported on Oct. 11 and an additional $1.284 million in spending on Oct. 14.
The Sun-Times has learned that the additional funders include four of the major donors and fundraisers in Illinois: Fred Eychaner, Michael Sacks, J.B. Pritzker and Bill Brandt. Eychaner and Pritzker are among the biggest donors to Democratic candidates and causes in the nation.
The Fight Back Fund is controlled by the Operators Union.
I talked about this with subscribers a bit earlier today, so let’s open the floor to more debate now.
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* From the Paul Simon Institute…
Most Illinois voters say they have a favorable overall opinion of labor unions, but their policy preferences are less like those of union leadership, according to the results of the latest poll from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
Among the 1,000 Illinois registered voters surveyed, more than half (57 percent) say they have at least a somewhat favorable view of labor unions, more than 20 points ahead of the 36 percent who have an unfavorable view.
However, voters are split on how much influence they would like unions to have – 30 percent support them having more influence, 29 percent think unions should maintain the influence they have, and 36 percent wish they had less influence.
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-Oct 2. It has a margin for error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Wages and benefits for public sector unions have been an issue in Springfield, with Governor Bruce Rauner blaming them in part for the state’s budget deficit. He has also advocated for workers to be able to opt-out of paying unions for the work they do negotiating in the private and public sectors. Unions have said the wages and benefits they negotiate strengthen the state’s middle class. They also say even workers who don’t belong to a union should pay their fair share of the costs the union incurs representing and bargaining for non-members.
Self-described liberals (75 percent), Democrats (73 percent), and members of union households (75 percent) were most likely to have favorable views of unions. Only among conservatives and Republicans (37 percent each group) did fewer than half hold a favorable view.
Historically marginalized groups tend to desire that unions have more influence than they do today. Notably, 49 percent of African Americans want unions to have more influence compared to only 26 percent of whites.
Similarly, 40 percent of people with household incomes below $50,000 would like to see unions have more influence compared to only 24 percent of those with incomes over $100,000.
* But then we get to this…
Asked about their positions on right-to-work or “open shop” laws, respondents favored them by two-to-one, 48 percent to 24 percent. Notably, more than a quarter (28 percent) answered “other/don’t know,” suggesting a significant portion of the electorate is ambivalent or uninformed on the issue.
Most likely to favor right-to-work were conservatives and Republicans (64 percent and 63 percent, respectively). Most likely to oppose it were liberals and Democrats (36 percent and 32 percent), and members of labor union households (38 percent).
However, opinion shifted when interviewers explained “fair share” laws. Respondents were asked to choose between two statements: “When everyone in the workplace shares the gains won by the labor union, all workers should have to contribute to the union’s costs for negotiating those gains” or “No American should be required to pay dues to a private organization like a labor union against their will.”
There were 50 percent who supported the right to work description and 44 percent backing the fair share statement. Only 4 percent said they “don’t know.”
The fair-share position was most strongly favored by liberals and Democrats (61 percent and 55 percent), African Americans (52 percent), those in households earning less than $50,000 per year (51 percent), and members of union households (55 percent). Conservatives and Republicans (65 percent and 67 percent) were most likely to favor the right to work position.
“The disconnect between Illinoisans’ favorable view of unions, and preferences for policies the unions dislike is interesting,” said Charlie Leonard, a visiting professor at the Institute and one of the designers of the poll. “I think this has to be in part because declining membership in unions leaves fewer people with the experience of the gains they’ve won for workers. And opposition to union influence has been a drumbeat message from business groups and Chamber of Commerce organizations.”
That’s part of it. But part of it is also the way the questions were asked. “Do you favor or oppose right-to-work or open-shop laws?” may seem straightforward, but do people really know what that means? Perhaps a differently phrased question next time?
* Also, this seems overly broad…
· When everyone in the workplace shares the gains won by the labor union, all workers should have to contribute to the union’s costs for negotiating those gains OR
· No American should be required to pay dues to a private organization like a labor union against their will.
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Madigan responds
Monday, Oct 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mary Ann Ahern caught up to Speaker Madigan, who talked briefly about the negative attacks against him, Donald Trump, Gov. Rauner and last week’s Wikileaks-based report on moving the primary…
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He did this to himself
Monday, Oct 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Many years ago, I asked House Speaker Michael Madigan why he didn’t play golf during his campaign golf outing fundraisers.
Madigan explained that he was a lousy golfer. He said he had this reputation of being a powerful man, so if political types saw him out there pathetically hacking away, people might start to get the idea that he wasn’t so formidable after all.
I use that story in a lot of my public speeches because it perfectly shows
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Presidential candidates set the turnout. That’s the race voters care about the most by far, so everybody else who’s running down-ballot essentially has to work within the structure of that year’s presidential turnout numbers.
Some organizations can fiddle around with the margins here and there and get some voters out who might not have bothered voting, but down-ballot candidates mainly have to find a way to win with the hand they are dealt by the top of the ticket. So, if one presidential candidate crashes and burns, that’s almost always the ballgame.
That’s just something to keep in mind while watching top Republicans abandon their presidential nominee Donald Trump after that ghastly “hot mic” tape surfaced and he, in turn, lashed out at those turncoat Republicans and promised a nuclear attack on the Democratic nominee whom he has pledged to prosecute if elected.
Yes, there’s still time for Trump to get his act together. The election is still a few weeks away - usually considered an eternity in politics. But, man, just look at this mess. Miracles do happen in politics, but miracles ain’t plans.
It goes without saying that the impact of a possible implosion in Illinois will be felt the most in the suburbs where more moderate voters were less receptive to Trump’s candidacy to begin with. Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake) has been under constant, withering attack from the Republicans for months, so he could really use some help from the top.
The Democrats recently sent more than $200,000 to Cynthia Borbas’ DuPage County race against Rep. Christine Winger (R-Wood Dale). That’s about half of all the money they’ve given her since July. President Barack Obama lost the district by two points in 2012, so it’s worth watching if this weirdness at the top continues.
The Republicans maintain that their expensive and meticulously concocted plan, centered around tying Democratic candidates directly to the horribly unpopular House Speaker Michael Madigan, will get people to the polls and convince them to support Republican legislative candidates even if some of them vote for Hillary Clinton.
But the Republicans have also said for months that their plan depends on Trump not completely falling apart. He just has to run a “normal” race, which obviously isn’t happening.
It’s hard to see how this will work out well for the Republicans in the suburbs, where moderate women voters are undoubtedly appalled at what’s going on with Donald Trump.
But it’s a bit trickier in Downstate districts, where Trump has been the most popular here.
For example, just a couple of short weeks ago, Mike Mathis’ Democratic supporters were proudly pointing to the number of homes that had their guy’s yard signs planted next to Trump’s signs. Mathis is up against appointed Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond) is a district just south of Springfield and has run a credible race.
trump-illinois.jpg
Photo by Bloomberg
Presidential candidates set the turnout. That’s the race voters care about the most by far, so everybody else who’s running down-ballot essentially has to work within the structure of that year’s presidential turnout numbers.
Some organizations can fiddle around with the margins here and there and get some voters out who might not have bothered voting, but down-ballot candidates mainly have to find a way to win with the hand they are dealt by the top of the ticket. So, if one presidential candidate crashes and burns, that’s almost always the ballgame.
That’s just something to keep in mind while watching top Republicans abandon their presidential nominee Donald Trump after that ghastly “hot mic” tape surfaced and he, in turn, lashed out at those turncoat Republicans and promised a nuclear attack on the Democratic nominee whom he has pledged to prosecute if elected.
-
Yes, there’s still time for Trump to get his act together. The election is still a few weeks away - usually considered an eternity in politics. But, man, just look at this mess. Miracles do happen in politics, but miracles ain’t plans.
It goes without saying that the impact of a possible implosion in Illinois will be felt the most in the suburbs where more moderate voters were less receptive to Trump’s candidacy to begin with. Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake) has been under constant, withering attack from the Republicans for months, so he could really use some help from the top.
The Democrats recently sent more than $200,000 to Cynthia Borbas’ DuPage County race against Rep. Christine Winger (R-Wood Dale). That’s about half of all the money they’ve given her since July. President Barack Obama lost the district by two points in 2012, so it’s worth watching if this weirdness at the top continues.
The Republicans maintain that their expensive and meticulously concocted plan, centered around tying Democratic candidates directly to the horribly unpopular House Speaker Michael Madigan, will get people to the polls and convince them to support Republican legislative candidates even if some of them vote for Hillary Clinton.
But the Republicans have also said for months that their plan depends on Trump not completely falling apart. He just has to run a “normal” race, which obviously isn’t happening.
It’s hard to see how this will work out well for the Republicans in the suburbs, where moderate women voters are undoubtedly appalled at what’s going on with Donald Trump.
But it’s a bit trickier in Downstate districts, where Trump has been the most popular here.
For example, just a couple of short weeks ago, Mike Mathis’ Democratic supporters were proudly pointing to the number of homes that had their guy’s yard signs planted next to Trump’s signs. Mathis is up against appointed Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond) is a district just south of Springfield and has run a credible race.
The Mathis campaign’s boast about attracting Trump supporters has also happened in most every other contested Downstate district, as what remains of the Democratic blue collar white male vote surged away from Clinton to Trump. Simply put, the Democrats recognized early on that they needed those votes to win.
In Mathis’ case, President Obama lost the 95th House District by 13 points four years ago, so the only way he can defeat Rep. Bourne is with support from people who normally lean Republican.
Mathis was asked about who he was supporting for president at a candidates’ forum last week. After much hemming and hawing and complaining about how bad the choices were, he finally said, reluctantly, that he’d be voting for Hillary Clinton.
Trump has become so toxic that maybe Mathis’ position won’t hurt him too badly. Then again, lots and lots of Trump supporters believe Clinton is the Devil incarnate (I’m not kidding, do a Google search). They may not like what their guy is doing, but that won’t push them toward her.
Trump polled a mere 29 percent in a statewide Democratic poll taken the middle of last week and careened downward to an unheard-of 27 percent in a Republican tracking poll earlier last week. He bounced back to above 30 in that GOP tracker, but… oh, man that’s still bad.
To be clear, a Trump implosion will undoubtedly help Democrats. The fewer people who lean Republican who actually vote on election day or switch parties means Democratic voters will make up a greater share of the November 8th pie.
But after positioning themselves as Trump-friendly for months, Downstate Democrats now have to navigate a minefield for the next few weeks.
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