* If you’re following national polling average sites like RCP, you know that the Los Angeles Times/USC poll has shown Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton when pretty much all other polls have shown Clinton ahead. Well it turns out that a single polling “panelist,” who is a 19 year-old Illinois African-American has been skewing the results (of a highly questionable methodology) because he is supporting Trump…
In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.
Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.
He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks.
How has he made such a difference? And why has the poll been such an outlier? It’s because the U.S.C./LAT poll made a number of unusual decisions in designing and weighting its survey.
Kim Savage, a Democrat from the Chicago suburb of Darien, argues in a Federal Election Commission filing that the DuPage Policy Journal is not an independent newspaper, but controlled by businessman and radio talk-show host Dan Proft through his political action committee, Liberty Principles PAC, which got a $2.5 million contribution last June from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner.
The paper is one of 14 co-owned by Proft that appeared last spring before the state’s primary elections.
The complaint, filed last week in Washington, maintains the DuPage Policy Journal is illegally coordinating with GOP congressional candidate Tonia Khouri and that its publication costs should be reported as political contributions in her race to unseat incumbent Democratic Rep. Bill Foster.
The PAC, Proft, Khouri for Congress and the Khouri campaign treasurer are named in the FEC document. It contends the DuPage paper is not entitled to a press exemption from campaign finance laws because it’s run by a political organization, is not published regularly, is sent to doorsteps or left in high traffic areas for free and includes “coordinated communications” with a candidate that the law bars for so-called independent expenditure committees.
Look, I do not want the federal government defining what is and is not a legit media company. Progress Illinois does good work, but it gets most of its money from SEIU. I don’t know who funds Illinois Review, but I’m fine with them, too. Stay the heck away.
* Meanwhile, the Proft papers came up in a recent story by David Giuliani at the Ottawa Times…
The chain was started in the winter by the Chicago-based Liberty Principles PAC, which receives much of its money from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Over the summer, a private corporation, Local Government Information Services Inc., took possession of the papers, Proft said.
The company filed its corporate paperwork with the state in mid-August, a few weeks into its management of the papers.
The Times asked Proft how the company makes money with its newspapers.
“I’m certain you don’t understand how newspapers or businesses make money,” Proft said in an email to a reporter. “In addition to ads, have you ever heard of the concept of subscriptions as a revenue source for newspapers, for example? Are you familiar with the concept of seed capital used to launch and grow a business? I didn’t think so.”
Proft said the reporter could not be fair in reporting about his company’s newspapers, suggesting the reporter favors Long’s opponent, Rep. Andy Skoog, D-La Salle.
“That makes you an advocate not a journalist. So please make sure Andy Skoog reports your ’stories’ as in-kind contributions (in his campaign reports),” Proft said in an email.
We’re a more diverse state than many others, so that explains much of it, but not all of it.
…Adding…If you look at the crosstabs from the latest Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll, Clinton leads Trump among all whites 45-35, including leaners. Clinton leads among men 47-35. Men were slightly less than half the sample, but they don’t break results down by gender plus race, so it’s impossible to tell what the white male result is.
Future autonomous Mercedes vehicles will prioritise saving their own occupants in no-win traffic situations, its safety executives have told Auto Express.
The tricky moral question continues to be debated by lawmakers, ethicists and lawyers, but for Mercedes’s Manager of Driver Assistance Systems, Active Safety and Ratings, the answer couldn’t be clearer.
“If you know you can save at least one person, at least save that one. Save the one in the car,” Christoph von Hugo said in an interview at the recent Paris Motor Show.
“If all you know for sure is that one thing, one death, can be prevented then that’s your first priority.
So, go ahead and plow into a big crowd of pedestrians leaving a concert and crossing Michigan Ave. against the light to save the car’s occupant.
* Back to that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…
Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. […]
The survey of 1000 registered voters was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three point one percentage points.
Of the total sample, 34 percent said they were personally affected by the crisis while 62 percent were unaffected. Those opinions have varied little during the past year.
Dr. Linda Baker, university professor at the Institute, said “Illinoisans are aware that the budget crisis is no longer an abstract question, but instead something that is growing in significance and having an effect on the state’s ability to attract and retain businesses and residents.”
“One hopeful finding is the increased percentage of Illinoisans who see the solution as a mix of both budget cuts and increasing revenues. Hopefully this can help spur policymakers on both sides of the aisle to consider a compromise that includes solutions offered by both parties,” she said.
David Yepsen, director of the Institute, said “I’m surprised more people aren’t feeling affected by this deadlock in Springfield. I thought the numbers of people impacted would be increasing as it wore on but it’s also true many people aren’t impacted by changes in government services.”
Among those who saw an impact on their own lives, the largest group - at 18 percent - saw the budget stalemate as the cause of their job loss or threat of loss. Another 15 percent saw it as the cause of cuts to general social services and 14 percent perceived it as the source of cuts to K-12 education funding.
* The actual question…
Have you or someone in your immediate family been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate?
Social Services 47.8%
Social services (generally) 14.7%
K-12 education 13.9%
Mental health care 6.5%
Child care costs/services 5.9%
Higher education (including MAP grants) 5.6%
Drug treatment costs/services 1.2%
Local economy 4.7%
City government cuts 2.4%
Highway and road construction/maintenance 2.1%
Facility closure 1.5%
Other 4.4%
Don’t know 6.2%
So, let’s count “you or someone in your immediate family” as households. There are 4.6 million households in Illinois, or about 39,000 in each of the 118 state House districts.
That means, with this particular interpretation (which isn’t quite accurate, but it’s close enough for our purposes here), over 13,000 households in each House district are impacted in some way or another by the impasse. You’d think that would cause a greater response from legislators. I mean, they get all freaked out when a much smaller fraction of that total are upset about something.
* Also, 7,000 households in each House district contained someone who either lost their job or has been threatened by job loss due to the impasse? That’s huge. It probably doesn’t line up with reality, but the perception is gigantic and legislators should beware.
And speaking of not lining up with reality, 14 percent think K-12 funding has been cut, which isn’t the case, but that’s what they think.
*** UPDATE *** Press release…
John Bouman, President of the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law and Chair of the Responsible Budget Coalition’s Executive Committee, today released the following statement regarding a new Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll measuring opinions on the state budget stalemate in Illinois:
“34 percent of respondents said they were personally affected by the budget crisis. The poll confirms what the Responsible Budget Coalition’s network of advocates and providers already know - over one million people have already been hurt by the loss of jobs and services because of Illinois’ failure to pass a fully funded, responsible budget. Millions more are threatened as the impasse continues.
In the wake of the stopgap budget Band-Aid, news stories about budget impasse have dropped from the front pages. That doesn’t cover the fact that real people and businesses continue to be negatively impacted by the direct and indirect costs of the collective failure to produce a real budget.
These numbers should get the attention of lawmakers who have turned their eyes away from Springfield in favor of a focus on elections. The effects of inaction are felt by voters in every legislative district. While the poll clearly shows that voters favor differing approaches to resolving the crisis, they all want it solved responsibly and quickly.”
Illinois Policy’s Diana Rickert said in a response to Illinois Playbook: “Rich’s comments are strange. The film crew is top notch, and was very forthcoming about the scope of the documentary and our involvement when asked who was funding the project. We’ve been critical of Speaker Madigan and his political machine for many years, so we’re certainly not shy about our work on this issue. It’s not like Rich was stopped on the sidewalk in Springfield and caught off-guard with a random guy filming with his iPhone; the interview was scheduled in advance, he signed a release form and he even went out for drinks with the film crew after they were done. Our research was used as the premise of many questions. Some of the other interviews for our documentary were even filmed in our Chicago office.”
Papola admitted he kept many of the subjects in the dark about Illinois Policy Institute’s involvement in the project. “I know there’s been some controversy in the local press … Because this was an independent project, because that was a condition of us coming on board, because we know Illinois Policy takes stances on issues, we treated this in much of the same way we handled our other projects … The partners or financiers of the film was really not something — that was kept close to the vest as far as myself and the head of production and the field team wasn’t really armed to talk about that.”
* The Institute was also far more involved with the content than Rickert initially admitted. The production company didn’t just use the Institute’s research, an Institute employee wrote the script…
Illinois Policy “gave us creative control over the project,” Papola said after the event. Then he explained that the film’s writer was Austin Berg, who works for the Policy Institute.
Creative content — After he was pressed, Papola said Berg: “was bringing lots of material to the table … Austin brought a wealth of knowledge to the table that would have been very difficult for us to produce from scratch.”
So they hired John Papola, an “award-winning documentary filmmaker” from Texas who hails from the East Coast and probably couldn’t find Springfield without Google Maps. Papola then made a movie channeling the exact narrative that Rauner and the Illinois Policy Institute embrace. […]
Berg assured me after Tuesday’s screening at the Siskel Center that the movie was financed by the organization’s “thousands of contributors,” not any particular billionaire.
But Papola swears he took a journalistic approach and had final creative control. As far as adopting the Policy Institute’s point of view of Madigan, Papola said he didn’t see how anyone could hold any other opinion after reviewing the facts — that were spoonfed to him by the Policy Institute.
* And then there’s weird stuff like this…
Odd portrayal of Blago impeachment — seems to suggest it's due to Madigan, doesn't mention um, federal case against him.
A little bit of naughty language at the end, so be careful at work, but it’s pretty darned funny…
From the same people who brought you fake newspapers, fake radio networks, and fake policy institutes comes the fake documentary Gov. Rauner (fake) says he didn’t pay for.
And then Sgt. Schultz makes an appearance. Whoever did that is brilliant.
Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
Voters also remain divided over how to fix the state’s budget woes. There are 44 percent who favor cuts, 12 percent who favor tax increases and 33 percent who favor both.
Except respondents weren’t asked about actual “cuts.”
* The question…
The state of Illinois has a budget deficit of over 9 billion dollars. I’m going to read three statements that people have made about how to fix the deficit, and ask you which one comes closest to your views. If you haven’t though much about this issue, just tell me that.
· Illinois’ public programs and services have already been reduced significantly. We can only fix the problem by taking in more revenue, such as a tax increase. (12.1%)
· The state takes in plenty of money to pay for public services, but wastes it on unnecessary programs. We can only fix the problem by cutting waste and inefficiency in government. (43.9%)
· Illinois’ budget problem is so large it can only be solved by a combination of budget cuts and revenue increases. (33.1%)
Emphasis added because when you phrase a question like that, of course people are gonna choose cutting all that wasteful spending from that horrible state government. Give them a list of $9 billion in program cuts, however, and you’ll watch them run away screaming in panic like most legislators do.
Several suburban Republicans in Congress would not say Monday whether they are following House Speaker Paul Ryan in his decision not to defend or campaign for their party’s nominee for president. […]
U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam of Wheaton, previously the No. 4 member of the House who’s worked closely with Ryan, called Trump’s comments and the attitude that they reflect “disgusting and corrosive. They fly in the face of every lesson (my wife) Elizabeth and I taught our daughters and sons about how men and women should interact.”
Asked whether Roskam still intended to vote for Trump, Roskam spokesman Davis Pasch would not comment.
Roskam, in his statement, said of Trump: “He says he has changed and this is not who he is today. Political figures in the past have claimed to change, and some of them have been sincere. Donald Trump is the only person who can prove he means what he says now, and he’s got work to do.”
Just hours after saying U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam was planning to vote for Donald Trump, spokesman David Pasch on Tuesday rescinded the remark.
Instead, Pasch released a written statement saying Roskam is undecided on how he will vote Nov. 8.
“Hillary Clinton has already disqualified herself by her actions and deeds,” Pasch wrote in an email Tuesday afternoon. “Donald Trump has 28 days left to convince him (Roskam) that he’s the right person to fix our broken tax code, bring accountability to the federal government, and restore American leadership to the world stage.”
* The NRSC is airing an ad that is approved by the Mark Kirk campaign which attacks Tammy Duckworth again on the VA whistleblower issue…
I’m told the Kirk campaign has found no images of Duckworth with Speaker Madigan. Too bad. They’re about the only campaign in the state without a “Because… Madigan!” angle.
The ad features two whistleblowers at suburban Edward Hines Jr. VA hospital who said they voiced concerns to Duckworth as a congresswoman and said she failed to act.
“I think the reaction Congresswoman Duckworth had was one of avoidance and denial,” said Dr. Lisa Nee, a cardiologist. Germaine Clarno, a union social worker, said of Duckworth, “Nothing happened. I’m yelling and screaming that our veterans are being harmed.”
A female narrator closes the ad by saying, “Tammy put political ambition before our veterans. That’s shameful.” […]
Duckworth’s campaign has said it raised $4.1 million from July through September and had $4.3 million left to start the month. Kirk’s camp had not revealed similar numbers that are due Saturday.
A super PAC created specifically to bolster Sen. Mark Kirk’s GOP re-election bid is a stark example of how mega-donors legally skirt federal caps on individual contributions.
Fueled by jumbo donations, the Independent Voice for Illinois super PAC has spent more than $1 million in negative television ads attacking Kirk’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. […]
As of June 30, the latest FEC report, the largest donors to Independent Voice are two of the biggest Republican donors in the nation.
Chicago’s Ken Griffin, the founder of the Citadel financial services firm, pumped $350,000 into Independent Voice.
Paul Singer, the New York hedge fund mogul who in the last week made the Washington Post’s list of the 10 mega-donors of the 2016 cycle, sent $250,000 to the fund.
The GOP wing of the Cubs-owning Ricketts family sent $50,000 through one of their super PACs, too.
* Phillip O’Connor, a former Republican member of the Illinois State Board of Elections and former chairman of the Illinois Commerce Commission under Jim Thompson plans to vote for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein in order to help Gov. Bruce Rauner…
If Stein receives 5 percent or more of the presidential vote in Illinois on Nov. 8, then the Green Party will qualify as an “established political party,” making it eligible to place a full slate of candidates on the 2018 statewide ballot. A Green Party candidate for governor in 2018 will attract several percentage points of the total vote — most of it coming at the expense of the Democratic nominee.
In 2014, Rauner defeated incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn by less than 5 percent of the vote. At the same time, the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate garnered more than 3 percent, much of it coming from voters who might otherwise have voted for Rauner.
The Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson, propelled by a thoughtful endorsement from the Chicago Tribune, will almost certainly exceed that 5 percent threshold in Illinois, guaranteeing a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate in 2018. […]
Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor. Even those who do not agree with his positions ought to concede that Illinois should no longer go on as a one-party state. We should not return to the time when the only meaningful policy debates are within the Democratic Party, with one group of Democrats arguing for more taxes and spending while the other faction argues for even more taxes and spending. […]
So, I will make my vote count now for Gov. Rauner in 2018 by voting for the Green Party presidential candidate this year.
Back in 2006, Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney got over 10 percent of the vote, but Democrat Rod Blagojevich still beat his GOP opponent by 10 points. That was a darned good year for Democrats, however.
* Comptroller Leslie Munger’s new TV ad throws Mike Madigan, career politician, double-dipping, unbalanced budgets, tax hikes and pension holidays at her Democratic opponent Susana Mendoza…
* Script…
Meet Susana Mendoza, Mike Madigan’s political sidekick.
Mendoza has taken “career politician” to a new level. She collected two public salaries at the same time, raking in almost $2 million in taxpayer money and building two pensions.
And how does she pay for her double-dipping? Mendoza voted for unbalanced budgets, tax increases and even pension holidays that forced Illinois into a fiscal crisis. She even voted for the largest tax hike in state history.
Mendoza-Madigan, putting politics above people and Illinois just can’t afford her.
* Response from the Mendoza campaign…
“Leslie Munger’s false, negative ads, including her lie about double dipping - previously debunked by documented proof - are almost entirely bankrolled by just two of Bruce Rauner’s billionaire friends. You can make up a lot of lies with that kind of money, but it doesn’t change that fact that Leslie Munger, Rauner’s self-described “wingman”, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Governor Rauner, not the independent watchdog Illinois taxpayers desperately need.”
The rise of the Cook County Board’s newest commissioner starts, as so many good political stories in Chicago do, a long time ago in the old neighborhood.
Ed Moody and his twin brother Fred Moody were teenagers hanging out at West Lawn Park on the city’s Southwest Side when they met a politician named Mike Madigan.
The Moody brothers’ mom had died when they were 14. Their dad struggled with alcoholism.
Mike Madigan, then a young state representative and Democratic ward boss, became a father figure to the boys, who followed Chicago politics as avidly as many kids follow sports.
Madigan later welcomed the Moody brothers into his political organization. They quickly became top Democratic precinct captains in the 13th Ward.
Now 52, Ed and Fred Moody have stayed out of the limelight until now. But political insiders long have counted them among the most respected and feared campaign operatives in the state legislative and municipal races where Madigan cultivates his power carefully, one voter at a time.
These two guys are legends, and for good reason. They love walking precincts and they can flip more voters at the doors than just about anyone else alive. Of course, there have also been stories about how, for instance, they describe their candidate as absolutely pro-gun at one door and favoring strict gun control at the next. I saw several Bruce Rauner yard signs when I was in Kankakee back in 2014 right next to signs for Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee). I don’t think that was by accident.
I asked the Madigan folks last time around if they’d let me tag along with one of the brothers in a precinct for an hour or so. My request was immediately denied. I was bummed because I’d really like to see one or both of them in action up close.
House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton were the keynote speakers at Friday night’s Will County Democratic Central Committee’s Legislative Leaders Dinner.
Madigan described an “epic struggle” in state government, and both he and Cullerton applauded Democratic legislative leaders for blocking the governor’s self-described turnaround agenda. […]
“It’s been an epic struggle, a tough struggle,” Madigan said. “And, believe me the Democrats in the Illinois Legislature have stood strong, and they will continue to stand strong for working people in Illinois.”
* Meanwhile…
Leader Durkin, who on Friday received $2 million from Ken Griffin, transfers $1.7 million to HRO. https://t.co/QoUzpwhUiN
* I’ll give your team loads of credit. They toughed it out inning after inning and hour after hour last night. I admire the tenacity.
Now, don’t crumble into a whiny little ball and have a group mental breakdown like y’all did after a hapless fan interfered with a foul ball a few years back. That’s loser stuff right there, kids. Last night was just one loss. Even the 2005 White Sox lost a playoff game. Stuff happens. Shake it off.
However, some runs scored by players other than your pitchers might be a good thing. Just sayin…
“What steps will your energy policy take to meet our energy needs while at the same time remaining environmentally friendly and minimizing job layoffs?”
Excellent question, for sure. And his red sweater was pretty cool, too, particularly considering his wardrobe malfunction back story.
My favorite question was the last one, however. Both candidates were asked to say something nice about each other.
So, instead of a question today, here’s a challenge…
* If you generally disapprove of Gov. Bruce Rauner, say something truly positive about him in comments below. The same goes for those of you who disapprove of House Speaker Michael Madigan.
No snark! Don’t even try. I’ll immediately delete you. And no back and forth bickering. Stick to the task at hand and only the task at hand. Thanks.
Today, House Majority PAC launched its first ad in the race for Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, “Advisor.” The ad features a Highland Park voter reviewing the facts online about Republican Congressman Bob Dold’s out-of-touch record including his votes to privatize Medicare and charge women more for health care.
Additionally, HMP has launched a new, real-life version of the website featured in the ad, www.congressadvisor.org, where voters can read the facts about Dold’s out-of-touch record for themselves.
“Unfortunately for Congressman Dold, his record is due for a big review this November, and it doesn’t look good,” said House Majority PAC Communications Director Jeb Fain. “Dold may get high marks from his special interest backers in Washington for voting to privatize Medicare and charge women more for health care, but IL-10 voters can tell from the facts that Bob Dold clearly isn’t working for them.”
“Advisor” begins airing today on broadcast, cable, and digital platforms in the Chicago media market.
Before I hire someone, I check online.
Bob Dold has a lot of reviews… but his ratings aren’t good.
Special interests spent $7 million to elect Dold and he repeatedly voted their way.
Like taking half a million from the insurance industry and voting to privatize Medicare.
And charging women more for health care.
Read for yourself. Bob Dold does not work for us.
* Greg Hinz referees competing interpretations of how effective Gov. Rauner’s administration has been at handling the EDGE tax credit, which essentially allows businesses to keep employee income tax payments for themselves…
According to the Rauner administration, Quinn during his five-year tenure negotiated $1.3 billion in Edge tax breaks for the promise of 18,940 jobs. Also included was preserving 55,000 jobs; but the Quinn folks tried to get out of that business, and Rauner’s team says it will underwrite only new jobs.
Rauner has committed to $125 million for 8,100 jobs. These numbers will rise because the Commerce Department still is negotiating with Amazon for a facility in Monee. But the Rauner figures include 500 jobs and $6 million that Quinn awarded for a new warehouse in Joliet, where Amazon has since announced a much larger expansion.
Based on that, the Rauner folks assert, they’ve delivered jobs at a cost in lost payroll taxes of $15,338.31 per position, well below the $69,372 under Quinn. “We’re still creating new jobs in Illinois,” says spokeswoman Kyle Ann Sebastian, “but for significantly less in Edge tax credits.”
Rauner’s assessment is skewed by the huge Amazon deal, which so far has cost $10,819 per position. But numbers being numbers, I decided to run this by a former top Commerce Department official under Quinn, who asked not to be named.
That source points out—correctly—that the applicable income tax rate under Quinn was 5 percent, versus 3.75 percent today, so the value of the deals under Quinn inevitably was higher, job for job. Factoring that out, the ratio of corporate-to-public investment in the two administrations is fairly similar, that source says.
Raynor Garage Doors has battled back from the 2008 recession and unveiled a $1-million plant upgrade on Monday, but its chairman says Illinois can still do much more to help businesses like Raynor thrive.
The downturn sliced roughly a third of the workforce from this third generation, family-owned business, said Ray Neisewander III, the company’s chairman and CEO.
“Illinois doesn’t make it easy,” he said. “It’s a very difficult state to do business in.”
Raynor, which makes garage doors for homes and businesses, has been a fixture in Dixon since 1945.
While it still employs some 500 employees in a union shop, automation is prompting the need for more highly skilled workers.
* I told subscribers about this ad earlier today. From a press release…
Leading Illinois For Tomorrow to Give Voters a Choice to LIFT Up Our State Instead of Continuing Down Rauner’s Destructive Path
LIFT Dedicated to Rebuilding Illinois’ Middle Class & Creating Opportunity for All
CHICAGO – Leading Illinois for Tomorrow (LIFT), a new political action committee, launched television and digital ads on Tuesday to counter an onslaught of campaign spending by Governor Bruce Rauner and his wealthy allies on behalf of GOP candidates.
“The purpose of LIFT is to explain the stark choice voters will be presented with this fall,” said state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Evanston), the LIFT Chairman. “Illinois has serious problems, but Rauner and the Republicans are making them worse. For the first time in history, Illinois has gone 16 months without a state budget. The middle class is under attack and universities and social service agencies are suffering. LIFT will make sure Illinois voters know that Democrats have a better way forward.”
LIFT was formed to demonstrate that our democracy is not for sale to the highest bidder and to fight back against the radical Republican agenda. LIFT will highlight Democrats’ real plans to strengthen the middle class, grow our economy, fix the state budget, reform politics, make the tax system fair, and provide equal opportunity to everyone.
“An unprecedented amount of money is pouring into Republican races from just a handful of extraordinarily wealthy individuals, including Governor Rauner,” said Biss. “Illinois Republican candidates are too scared to demand that Rauner and his multi-millionaire and billionaire friends pay their fair share so we can make the investments in Illinois’ residents, institutions and infrastructure that we need to create economic growth and opportunity for all. LIFT will fight back against the idea that our government should be run by and for the benefit of a few people to the detriment of millions of Illinoisans.”
LIFT is filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as a federal super PAC. Television and digital ads began running in the Chicago media market on Tuesday, with downstate markets to soon follow.
All donors to LIFT will be disclosed on the FEC website. LIFT is not coordinating with any candidate, campaign or political party.
For more information about LIFT, please visit LiftIllinois.com.
“Gov. Rauner is running an aggressive campaign to paint Republicans and Democrats in a certain way (pro-reform and pro-status quo, respectively),” Biss wrote. “This message strikes me as inaccurate and politically dangerous. I think it’s important to communicate a very different message about what Republicans and Democrats stand for, and what a vote for Republicans or a vote for Democrats up and down the ticket would mean for the quality of life of real people.” […]
Biss says he will disclose his donors soon. And asked if he’s gearing up to challenge Rauner himself in 2018, the senator gives a most political answer: “I’m not giving that any thought right now,” he wrote, “focused on 2016!”
* So, this “analysis” from a paper controlled by Dan Proft’s ever-expanding empire completely disproves its own theory right off the bat…
Seven of 12 [Chicago Tribune] editorial board members — including editorial page editor John P. McCormick (La Grange Park) — consistently vote in Illinois Democrat primaries, according to the Illinois State Board of Elections. An eighth member, columnist Clarence Page, is a liberal Democrat. The remaining four members have no active record of voting in partisan primaries.
If actual voting records are the measure, the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board has no Republicans.
Yeah. OK. The Trib’s edit board is not Republican at all. Right. Go with that one. Better yet, stop right there because the “actual voting records” thesis is plainly goofy.
The outliers include Rich Miller, publisher of the popular Springfield newsletter Capitol Fax. He’s voted in seven primaries since 1992, four Republican (‘00, ‘10, ‘12, ‘14) and three Democrat (‘92, ‘94, ‘98).
I wanted to vote in the contested presidential and US Senate races in 1992, and wanted to participate in the hotly contested governor’s primaries in 1994 and 1998. Just as important, however, I also lived at the time in a more Dem-leaning area. I moved in 1999 to a more Republican area so there were simply more GOP races to vote in, plus, I wanted to vote in the Republican presidential primary.
I moved to Chicago in 2001, but they missed those votes. I’m pretty sure I took a Democratic ballot in 2002 and 2004. I wanted to vote in the hotly contested 2002 governor’s primary, but I was also living in a place that basically had nothing to offer as far as local contests on the GOP side.
I’m also pretty sure that I took a GOP ballot in 2006 to vote in the Republican gubernatorial primary (for Judy Baar Topinka) and because I was back in Springfield and living in a heavily GOP area. I’ve been thinking about it since this article was published, but I just don’t remember which ballot I took in 2008.
My GOP votes in ‘10, ‘12 and ‘14 are mainly a reflection of where I live. Almost all the real primary action is on the GOP side in my neck of the woods. They also missed 2016, when I once again took a Republican ballot.
At the Chicago Sun-Times, longtime political reporter and current Associate Managing Editor Scott Fornek hasn’t been as discreet. A resident of Michael Madigan’s 13th Ward, Fornek has voted in 14 primaries since 1990, all for the Democratic party.
Oh, please. First, taint him with living in Madiganstan, then complain that he didn’t take a GOP ballot with few down-ballot choices?
C’mon.
* Hey, some of these folks might actually be Democrats. But, you know, this is a free country. People get to think what they want, not what somebody else believes they should think.
According to the above story, the Tribune’s Rick Pearson doesn’t vote in primaries. I know several other political reporters who do the same. I respect that decision. It’s just not the one I make for myself.
WBEZ’s Jenn White: What was it about this tape that pushed you to call for Donald Trump to step aside as the Republican presidential nominee?
Senator Mark Kirk: I just feel like he has become a malignant clown. The RNC should [hold] an emergency meeting to make sure we have a new candidate.
Q: Trump has apologized for his remarks. He also dismissed it as locker room talk. Why was that not enough of a satisfying response for you?
A: It’s not enough because I think it reveals who he really is and we shouldn’t elect such a misogynistic candidate to the presidency. […]
Q: Do you feel like some of those Republicans will follow your lead?
A: It’s likely. I don’t think Trump is wearing well. […]
Q: If Donald Trump remains on the ballot, what does that mean for your party?
A: For our party it means that the American people will likely figure out what’s going on and they will figure out we’ve nominated the wrong guy.
Q: But what do you think it means for the future of your party, and for those down-ticket races like yours?
A: It means that the Trump disaster could cost us the Senate and the House.
Sen. Kirk is embarking on another statewide bus tour, so we’ll see what sort of reaction he gets from the party faithful.
* For a possible preview, let’s look at something else which happened Saturday…
U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis has withdrawn his support for Donald Trump and hopes running mate Mike Pence will move to the top of the ticket.
Davis, a Taylorville Republican who represents the 13th Congressional District, released a statement Saturday in which he said he also has asked to be removed from Trump’s agriculture advisory committee.
“As parents of a teenage daughter and teen twin boys, my wife and I teach them to respect women and that they will be judged by their words and actions,” Davis said in the emailed statement. “The abhorrent comments made by Donald Trump are inexcusable and go directly against what I’ve been doing in Washington to combat assaults on college campuses.
“Because of this, I am rescinding my support for Donald Trump and asking to have my name removed from his agriculture advisory committee. With the terrible options America has right now, I cannot cast my vote for any of the candidates, so I hope Donald Trump withdraws from the race so the American people can elect Mike Pence as our next president.”
What in heaven’s name are you doing? Are you a democrat in disguise? Shame on you. Evidently you want Hilary elected. I just do not understand you.
To…
Rodney - you have become another establishment, elitist Republican that conservatives like me are tired of! I sure don’t condone what Trump said but we all say things we regret! Do you like the alternative better? You not supporting Trump is a vote for Gollary!
To…
I am very proud of this decision Rodney. I have always respected our differences in parties and opinions but I am proud of the choice you have made.
To…
Where is your apology for supporting him in the first place?? You apparently were fine with his continuous racist remarks, denigration of John McCain & Muslim Gold star parents, mocking of a disabled reporter, “stiffing” of middle class businesses and spewing of lie after lie after lie. And none of this touches his bragging about not being stupid enough to pay any Federal taxes which support all of the things YOU say are important. You should be ashamed of yourself for supporting him in the first place and also ashamed for this phony sense of outrage you’re showing now! You will win your election again because of the district gerrymandering but the truth is you aren’t worthy of representing anyone in Illinois!!
* But this one was my favorite because it made me chuckle…
According to a new poll conducted by Southern Illinois University’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, 47 percent of registered Illinois voters want to leave the state.
In comparison, 51 percent of the poll’s respondents said they’d prefer to remain in the state, while 2 percent remained undecided. According to the poll, 20 percent of respondents said it was likely, somewhat likely or likely that they’d leave the state in the coming year. Nearly 80 percent said it was unlikely.
Respondents cited the state’s taxes, weather, government and jobs as the main reasons for wanting to leave the state. According to the poll, 27 percent cited taxes, 16 percent blamed the weather, 15 percent cited government and 13 percent pointed to jobs and education.
“There are lots of reasons why people want to leave, David Yepsen, director of the institute, said in a statement. “Not much can be done about the weather but policy makers can do something about perceptions of the quality of services, tax competitiveness, tax fairness and educational and job opportunities.”
The poll also showed 20 percent said it was extremely likely, somewhat likely or likely they would leave the state in the coming year. Nearly 80 percent said it was unlikely.
Well, hey, only a fifth of the population say they’re likely to be leaving soon. What a relief. /snark
People under 50 are much more likely to want to leave than the rest of the population. Fifty- seven percent of millennials (under 35) want to leave the state while 58 percent of those between 35 and 50 want to leave. Only 29 percent of adults over age 66 want to leave Illinois.
“Policy-makers argue over whether people are leaving or not,” Yepsen said. “The most troubling finding in this poll is that so many younger people are thinking about it. That’s the state’s future.”
The measurements are one indication of how unhappy many people are with the state. The poll also found a staggering 84 percent of Illinois voters said the state was headed in the wrong direction while only 10 percent said it was on the right track. […]
The poll mirrors what the Gallup Poll found three years ago. Then 50 percent of Illinois residents said they would leave the state if they could. No other state ranked higher for would-be departures. Gallup also found in 2013 that 19 percent of residents said they were extremely, very or somewhat likely to move in the coming year.
* Oof…
* And somehow, some way, this horrific trendline has to be altered. If this was a person, we’d do an intervention…
Republican Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner has largely avoided any discussion of the presidential candidacy of Donald Trump.
That changed Monday, when Rauner directed harsh criticism at Trump for the vulgar remarks captured in a 2005 video, although he didn’t mention Trump’s name.
Speaking after participating in Chicago’s Columbus Day parade, Rauner said the rhetoric, the language, the statements in the video was, “disgusting, appalling, outrageous, beyond any reasonable bounds of decency.” He reiterated his refusal to back Trump.
When asked whether he supports Trump, Rauner said instead that he’s “not endorsing him.”
Rauner, as head of the Illinois Republican Party, didn’t attend this year’s GOP convention and has not endorsed Trump, but he has said he would vote for the Republican nominee. […]
At an event Downstate Saturday, Rauner said, “I’ll say this. The rhetoric in this presidential campaign [is] appalling, disgusting. As a father [and] as a husband, the language is vile and repulsive, and I condemn it in the strongest possible way.”
Asked if he’ll still support Trump, Rauner replied on Saturday, “I’ve made my comments.”
Rauner’s handpicked state GOP chairman, Cook County Commissioner Tim Schneider, has not issued a formal public statement about Trump’s leaked comments. Email requests to the Illinois GOP for comment since Saturday gained no response. […]
All politics may be local, but timing also can be a factor. The Sangamon County Republican Party sent fliers to mailboxes in Springfield on Saturday soliciting vote-by-mail for the GOP ticket, political literature that featured Trump.
But the mailer, arriving only hours after the release of Trump’s recording, also had photos of Sen. Kirk and Rep. Davis, who by then had called for Trump to drop out.
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The Chicago Teachers Union announced a tentative contract agreement with the school board minutes before a midnight strike deadline, meaning classrooms in the city will be open Tuesday.
The two sides narrowly averted what would have been the second strike of Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s tenure after nearly 12 hours of talks Monday. The four year deal agreed to by union leaders still needs to be ratified by the CTU’s House of Delegates and voted on by full membership. […]
Lewis said the contract includes a commitment from the school board on kindergarten through second grade class sizes and on teacher layoffs and recalls. The settlement also deals with the teacher pension pickup, long a hangup in contract talks, Lewis said.
Under the proposed contract, CTU members hired before Dec. 31, 2016, will keep the pension pickup. “The new hires will not have it, but they will get at some point a salary adjustment,” Lewis said. “So it’s about compensation.”
It’s not yet clear how the Board of Education will pay for the new deal, or how much of the tax-increment financing money the union has sought as a solution for the cash-strapped district could be tapped.
According to the four-year agreement published early Tuesday morning, teachers will keep in years two, three and four the raises they get for added experience and education known as steps and lanes, raises the Board had suspended during negotiations. Cost of living raises of 2 percent and then 2.5 percent also are forthcoming in the third and fourth years of the deal, Lewis said. Teachers are currently in year two of the agreement that would replace the contract that expired in June 2015. […]
The Board also committed in writing to sending more help to crowded kindergarten to second-grade classrooms during the second semester, and has earmarked $7 million each year of the deal to staff those same grades. And it agreed to find a solution in tandem with the CTU to somehow free counselors and special ed teachers from case management duties starting in the 2017-18 school year.
Earlier district proposals to reopen the contract if CPS couldn’t entice 1,500 teachers and several hundred more aides to retire early have been eliminated, and CPS also agreed to form an advisory committee of two CTU members, two Board members and CPS’ finance chief to discuss budget issues.
At the press conference last night, a pricetag of $200 million for additional costs was mentioned. The tentative agreement is here.
After a tumultuous weekend for Donald Trump, the Illinois Republican Party plans to stay the course for now and focus on legislative attacks against Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan rather than work to distance itself from the controversial GOP presidential nominee.
Republican campaign strategists and activists said the reason is twofold: Trump is highly unlikely to defeat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Illinois, a traditional blue state in presidential years; and they contend any Trump tarnish won’t extend all the way down to the General Assembly campaigns at the center of the Nov. 8 state GOP strategy. […]
One Republican legislative campaign consultant, who was not authorized to speak publicly about strategy, said he believes no one knows about the extent of a Trump factor on down-ballot races for a few more weeks “when the wind blows and people start to move.”
At the same time, however, he said efforts by Democrats to connect local Republican legislative candidates to Trump lack the “realness” factor compared to GOP efforts to link Madigan to Democratic legislative candidates because the speaker “is a leader and he runs the place.”
Mark Fratella, of Elmhurst, who was a Trump delegate at the party’s national convention in Cleveland, said that because the Republican presidential contender has shifted resources away from Illinois, “now it’s time to just focus on the local races and look at getting rid of the supermajority that Madigan has.”
The Republicans have spent millions of dollars to “burn in” the Madigan issue this year. They’re hoping that this will serve as a sort of firewall with independents.
They’re also hoping that all the high-profile Republican defections from Trump will help convince people that the “Trump” brand is separate and distinct from the “Republican” brand.
But the national GOP is in such crazy disarray right now that nobody really knows what’s about to happen. It could very well turn out to be a wave election and that could wipe out all those expensively well-laid “Because… Madigan!” plans.
A harsh new TV ad slams Rep. John Bradley (D-Marion) for supporting a convicted sex offender. It’s described by the Republicans as a form of payback for all the sex offender-related ads that the House Democrats have been using against Republicans this year and in years past.
The ad begins with footage of a Chicago television anchorman saying “Federal prosecutors now accusing a former state Representative of possessing child pornography.”
It then cuts to footage of convicted former state Rep. Keith Farnham, with an announcer saying “Unspeakable abuse from a Springfield Democrat.” Footage of Rep. Bradley appears on the screen: “But as Madigan’s top lieutenant in Democrat leadership, John Bradley stood by as the predator committed heinous crimes on his state computer.”
“The sex assault victim was an infant,” the TV anchorman is heard saying. “Yet Bradley stroked a check to the predator’s campaign just to strengthen Madigan’s power. Cowardice so despicable you have to wonder, how does John Bradley sleep at night?”
Bradley did contribute $1,000 to Farnham, but that was three years before Farnham’s arrest. Nobody had a clue what was going on with Farnham back then. Farnham is currently serving an eight-year prison sentence for trafficking in child pornography. He’s also been sued by two minors who say their pornographic images were found on Farnham’s Illinois House computer.
The Democrats have been airing TV and radio ads and sending mailers blasting Republicans on this same basic issue. Republican Jerry Long, who is running against appointed Rep. Andy Skoog (D-LaSalle), was hit for renting one of his houses to a convicted sex offender. Republican Lindsay Parkhurst, who is challenging Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee), was blasted for working to “keep a predator [of a five-year old child] out of jail.” Parkhurst is a defense attorney.
Several other GOP candidates have been whacked for opposing House Speaker Michael Madigan’s failed budget proposal, although not in those words, of course. The Madigan proposal included funding for various programs related to sex offenders, so they’re being hit with that. Rep. Bradley’s own opponent Dave Severin got the treatment, as did others.
And the GOP hit is spreading to other districts.
“Yingling’s Dirty Money,” blares the headline on a new Republican mailer, which features an image of a little girl with her head in her hands just behind a photo of Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake). Yingling’s GOP opponent was hit with a Democratic sex offender mailer earlier.
“Sam Yingling has taken over $1,000,000 in campaign contributions from the same political groups who bankrolled a politician that pleaded guilty to horrific child pornography crimes,” the mailer claims, using very similar language to a recent House Democratic robocall that linked state Rep. Carol Sente’s current Republican opponent to Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC.
“The candidate was sued by victims saying they were repeatedly ‘raped and sexually assaulted’ to produce child pornography,” the Republican mailer claims. “Sam Yingling won’t give back the political donations.”
The mailer then excerpts a news report: “Depictions of sadistic and sexual abuse of children as young as 6 months old.”
Ugh.
The House Democrats are a pretty predictable bunch. If something works, they use it over and over again anywhere and everywhere they can until it stops working. This sort of slam helped keep Rep. Sente in office two years ago when the Democrats used a variation of the sexual predator “issue” against her GOP challenger Leslie Munger. Munger, who went on to be appointed state comptroller, was whacked for saying she opposed unfunded state mandates, which the Democrats twisted to mean she was opposed to school mandates that help shield children from predators.
Linking an opponent to child sexual predators is about the lowest thing anybody can do in politics. But it’s a type of tactic as old as negative campaigning itself.
Almost everybody has heard the legend about Lyndon Baines Johnson wanting to spread a rumor that his opponent was engaging in, um, marital relations with a member of the porcine persuasion. When told he couldn’t do that because it wasn’t true, Johnson is said to have replied that he knew the claim was false, he just wanted to make his opponent deny it.
Two years ago, the Munger campaign fell for the old LBJ trick and stirred up a media storm by flatly denying that she wanted to protect child predators. Munger lost that race during an otherwise favorable Republican year.
If the “issue” actually turns out to be an effective counterattack for the Republicans, the House Democrats may finally stop using it. One can only hope.
