A look at the exit polls
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Pearson digs into exit polling…
Nationally, white voters made up 70 percent of the electorate and they went strongly for Trump — 58 percent, to 37 percent for Clinton. In Illinois, whites represented 65 percent of the vote and they split equally between the two contenders at 47 percent. […]
Nationally, white men made up 34 percent of the vote and sided with Trump at a 2-to-1 rate: 63 percent to 31 percent for Clinton. In Illinois, white males represented 32 percent of the vote, but the split was much closer: 49 percent for Trump to 41 percent for Clinton. […]
National exit poll results showed white females making up 37 percent of the vote and favoring Trump 53 percent to 43 percent, despite Clinton’s theme of seeking to become the first woman president. In Illinois, Clinton won the white female vote. That group made up 33 percent of the electorate, but 52 percent sided with Clinton to 45 percent for Trump. […]
White women with a college degree, thought to be Clinton’s base, represented about one-fifth of voters nationally. But Clinton failed to run up the score, taking 51 percent of these voters to 45 percent for Trump.
However, in Illinois, where white college graduate women represented 18 percent of the vote, Clinton nearly doubled up Trump at 64 percent to 33 percent.
You can delve into the exit polling numbers yourself by clicking here. Tell us what you find.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:03 am:
As Sheriff Bart once famously asked, “where are the white women at?”
- Anon - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:06 am:
49% of the electorate stayed home. Thats just awful. While there is plenty of blame to go around, the election was a whitelash, pure and simple. Those who needed Hillary the most to defend their civil liberties and human rights stayed home. They bear the most blame for Trump’s victory.
- AC - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:12 am:
Nationally it appears that 43% of Union Households voted for Trump. Unfortunately, there was no drill down for Union Households in Illinois. It’d be fascinating to know what that number was, and how it might differ from the national numbers.
- LakeviewJ - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:13 am:
43% of the country thinks the criminal justice system treats everyone fairly. Those people voted 74% for Trump.
48% of the country thinks that the criminal justice system treats black people unfairly. Those people voted 71% for Clinton.
Big gap there.
- ZC - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:17 am:
I don’t think nationwide-to-IL comparisons are that interesting, because you’re in a whole different world when you include any analyses including whites and the Deep South. Clinton was just killed down there.
I think the more interesting comparison is IL to other Midwestern-y states, and there some of the differences aren’t that huge, really. Take the all-important “whites without a college degree” for Trump:
IL 60%
IN 69%
IA 58%
MI 62%
OH 62%
PA 64%
WI 62%
So IL is a little lower on that spectrum, but it’s not in dramatically-different status, sampling error etc (and everybody’s lower than the nationwide 72% average - again, see the South).
For me therefore some of that diminished-gender gap in IL is coming when you stop looking at whites alone and you look instead at composition of the electorate (always dicey with exit polls, it’s a very broad paintbrush stroke, but still). Compare the percentage of Illinoisans who ID as Latino / Asian to some of these other states:
IL 11 / 3
IN 5 / 1
IA 5 / 1
MI 5 / 2
OH 3 / 1
PA 6 / 1
WI 4 / 1
IL is like 2-3 x more diverse than some of these other comparison-Midwestern states. And I really think that’s the ballgame. Compare to Wisconsin! That’s a key reason why I still think the “Scott Walker-ization” of IL is an unlikely prospect (though, never say never). It’s much more of a battle, anyways.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:23 am:
The exit polls are interesting, but the big takeaway was that the much-vaunted Clinton GOTV was a bust.
Trump did as well or a little better than Romney in the battleground states, while Clinton in most cases fell off the table compared to Obama in 2012.
It’s reflected nationally, as well:
Clinton 2016: 61,047,207
Obama 2012: 65,915,795
Trump 2016: 60,375,961
Romney 2012 60,933,504
Nearly a five million vote drop from Obama to Clinton, while Trump did just a little worse than Romney.
A Mook is a mook is a mook.
- anon - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:25 am:
In Illinois, Clinton carried every age group except those 65 and older, who went heavily for Trump (61%-35%.) I suspect this age group is also the whitest.
Trump garnered 12% of the black vote in Illinois, giving him an opportunity to brag that he did much better percentage wise than Romney or McCain.
Trump got 8% of liberals, but Clinton got 14% of conservatives in Illinois.
Three out of four Trump voters said the most important candidate quality was “can bring change.” I hope they realize some changes are for the worse.
- Snucka - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:25 am:
AC — with a little reverse engineering, it seems that Illinois union households went about 61-28-11 (Clinton-Trump-Other). Nationally it was 51-43-6.
The share of union households was also much larger than average — 38% here, compared to 18% nationwide.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:40 am:
HRC was an extremely milquetoast candidate. Like him or not - and people on this site and Illinois clearly do not - Donald Trump has a bigger-than-the-room personality and is a lightning rod. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have awesome, engaging personalities, and George W. Bush successfully came across as just a regular dude who was a relatable, warm and pleasant every man. HRC just did not sell well. I truly believe that if states like Illinois had a later primary then Bernie may very well have been the nominee.
- Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:43 am:
In 2008 she had white, blue collar voters in the primary against Obama, but threw them away in 2016, because she thought she didn’t need them.
- A guy - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:51 am:
Just when you think you know what everyone’s going to do, they go off and do something different. Her pollsters spent a lot of time telling her what she wanted to hear. They’re stunned at the “anger”. And it turns out it’s far more than lesser educated white men who are feeling angry.
She didn’t have the love Obama had in the AA community. How in the world is that a shock? That demo only jumped hard when he was on the ballot, not in either off year during his presidency. They didn’t forget what she said about him when they ran against each other. Women voters seem to have much better memories and they don’t forgive so easily.
If there was any GOTV, like the much vaunted one they were all talking about (agreeing completely with Sling on this), they would have noticed how ticked and unstable this electorate really was. I sure did. I said so here.
- Like water for chocolate - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 10:55 am:
Word,
Kinda silly to say the clinton gotv was a bust when shes out performed obama in states like ga, ariz, tx, and ca where they devoted lots of resources. The Clinton camps error was spreading itself too far thin and not securing the midwest gains obama made. Thats strategic and not field.
- AC - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 11:16 am:
Snucka - Interesting, while 28% is still a lot of union support, it’s still significantly less than Rauner received.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 11:32 am:
Clinton, after decades enriching herself among the cultural elitists, millionaires and billionaires, forgot about middle class working people. She didn’t “feel your pain”, she didn’t identify with their concerns. The Democrats forgot the forgotten masses.
It’s not about race. Not gender. Americans didn’t suddenly go from big wins for our first black president because they secretly are horrible people.
Trump promised America’s working class that he saw them, agreed with them and kick the ruling elitists in both parties back to their expensive mansion, beach homes and snotty cocktail parties.
- Oneman - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 11:36 am:
47th Ward….
You win the internet today.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 12:31 pm:
–Like him or not - and people on this site and Illinois clearly do not - Donald Trump has a bigger-than-the-room personality and is a lightning rod.–
Meh, so does Joe Walsh. And Trump still received fewer votes than Hillary, and fewer than Romney in 2012, who wasn’t exactly Zorba the Greek.
What’s flabbergasting in the post-mortem is the revelation that the Clinton campaign decided not to compete for blue-collar voters. That’s a strange combination of hubris and stupidity, given her massive resources.
Last year, U.S. automakers sold more cars and trucks than any year in history. She should have been riding in a Caddy convertible to the gates of every auto and auto parts plant in the Midwest letting them know that she was part of the administration that saved Detroit.
–Kinda silly to say the clinton gotv was a bust when shes out performed obama in states like ga, ariz, tx, and ca where they devoted lots of resources.–
I don’t think they devoted any resources to California, and very few in Texas. As a whole, I’d say continuing demographic changes in those states were a big factor.
And it seems less silly to call it a bust considering she gave back Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, and got nearly five million fewer votes than Obama did in 2012.
- Grandpa - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 3:12 pm:
This old white guy was in the minority…..