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The trust issue - HDem version

Thursday, Dec 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Steve Brown on WBEZ

“The change in tone is due to the uninterrupted campaign rhetoric that we listened to for over two years,” Brown said. “That fills everybody with the expectation that if there were some kind of a budget agreement … once a vote was taken, there would be a never-ending series of attack ads. Robocalls, dark money, (and) character assassination sponsored by Governor (Bruce) Rauner.”

* There is ample justification for this viewpoint. After all, the governor, who is by far the largest single contributor to the Illinois Republican Party, regularly denies all knowledge of his party’s activities

“That’s its own process. I have nothing to do with it. I don’t spend my time thinking about it or focusing on it.”

There’s also the Aaron Schock dark money precedent. All of a sudden in early 2013, the potential gubernatorial candidate started getting whacked by dark money attacks. The same sort of thing happened again in 2014 against all of Rauner’s opponents.

So, the Madigan types figure dark money will most definitely be used against Democrats after a budget agreement, whether through Dan Proft or some other group, and that Rauner will flatly deny any and all involvement, just like he’s doing now with the BossMadigan.com website.

…Adding… Wordslinger makes some great points in comments…

Yes, that will happen, but so what? You still have to do your jobs.

And please — getting whacked in campaign media for making tough votes? Madigan’s crew engineers tough votes all the time so they can whack GOP candidates with them later.

The Dems should consider making the great leap forward to the 1990s when it comes to message delivery and maybe they wouldn’t worry about Rauner so much. It’s not like his crew is dazzling with the message.

Right now, Dems are getting clobbered because they’re not in the ballgame.

…Adding More… From Juvenal in comments…

Have Democrats used rollcalls to put Republicans in tough positions? Sure.

But not ever that I can recall when it came to something that required bipartisan support to pass that Democrats actually wanted.

When you want something to pass, and it requires a structured, bipartisan rollcall, there is always another piece to the deal: both sides have to agree that the bill isn’t going to be the basis of attack ads.

In other words: every Democrat who voted for George Ryan’s license fee hike could rest assured that neither Ryan, Daniels, or Pate would come after them.

That trust is utterly lacking.

And it doesn’t make a bipartisan agreement impossible, but it does make it that much more difficult, because now those Democrats have to be much more careful about what level of funding they can defend, not just for targets either. You have to assume that dark money is going to flood the streets of Chicago again against black caucus members accused of raising taxes for Boss Madigan.

Heck, Rauner just spent money pillorying Forby for voting to confirm his own labor board appointments.

Much. More. Difficult.

       

39 Comments
  1. - Honeybear - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:31 pm:

    Reading that it kind of explains the DEM taciturn strategy. The only attack that can be made about not saying anything or not having a message is that you don’t have a message. Neutralizes the dark money. If you said anything or had any message they could attack it in multiple ways.


  2. - A Jack - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:34 pm:

    Exactly. That is why the GA Democrats need to stick to the script that the Executive spends, so the the Executive needs to propose the budget. And if the budget request exceeds expected revenue, then the Governor needs to propose a realistic way of paying for the shortfall. If he proposes, and then vetos that budget, well that story just writes itself.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:38 pm:

    Agree with this 1,000%

    No matter what Dems do, in less than 24 hours the attacks and outright hostilities towards “partners” leave the premise about saying anything almost comical.

    No. The best and only course of action is the following of the Constitution, allow the Executive to propose, and weigh and measure the monetary levels of everything in governing, including Higher Ed. At that time, if the Executive sees a significant need for revenue, the Executive can propose that, and show a strong, honest, willingness to all of this with a structured roll call guarantee…

    … through MOUs.

    Anything less, less “BossMadigan.Com”, would be utter malpractice for leaders to put members in the way of Rauner’s onslaught.

    This. This is Rauner’s reality…

    … with MOUs.


  4. - Blue Bayou - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:40 pm:

    “Madigan types”?


  5. - Ebenezer - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:44 pm:

    D’s see this as a joint problem where both parties need share ownership of an unpalatable solution.

    R’s see this as the legacy of D budgets and the D’s need to own the solution. “You got us into this, you get us out.”


  6. - Concerned - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:44 pm:

    Maybe the Dems should take the revenue projections using the current tax rates and give Rauner/the Executive branch the discretion to spend it as he sees fit (for the balance of this fiscal year).

    I would pay to watch the howling from the Executive branch!


  7. - Will Caskey - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:45 pm:

    On the one hand this is an accurate assessment.

    On the other I don’t personally see why this should be an impediment to a budget deal. After all I’d expect HDems to be doing the same thing


  8. - wordslinger - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:47 pm:

    –So, the Madigan types figure dark money will most definitely be used against Democrats after a budget agreement, whether through Dan Proft or some other group, and that Rauner will flatly deny any and all involvement, just like he’s doing now with the BossMadigan.com website.–

    Yes, that will happen, but so what? You still have to do your jobs.

    And please — getting whacked in campaign media for making tough votes? Madigan’s crew engineers tough votes all the time so they can whack GOP candidates with them later.

    The Dems should consider making the great leap forward to the 1990s when it comes to message delivery and maybe they wouldn’t worry about Rauner so much. It’s not like his crew is dazzling with the message.

    Right now, Dems are getting clobbered because they’re not in the ballgame.


  9. - slow down - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:47 pm:

    Spot on. This is the reality that Rauner has created. He’s given no one any reason to think he can be a genuine partner for real action.


  10. - A guy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:55 pm:

    The cow may be long, long gone from the barn with regard to the perception of Trust and the House Dems. Hard to imagine anyone pulling out a violin when they discuss that topic.


  11. - Suburban Hillbilly - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:56 pm:

    I believe after one of the dozen or so property tax votes in the House, HDEM’s had mailers sent into target republican districts. Really you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t on both sides of the isle. Cullerton and Durkin are the only wild cards left in this game. All other hands have been shown.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 1:59 pm:

    ===Hard to imagine anyone pulling out a violin when they discuss that topic.===

    With Rauner? How so?

    Election night phony phone call schtick
    Good Friday Massacre Cuts
    Sham budget press blasts
    Rauner’s $2 million campaign ads during session
    Goldberg’s letters
    IllinoisGo
    Ken Dunkin
    CPS Veto

    Rauner has proven time and again, he’s a rascal…

    … now it’s MOU time.


  13. - Ebenezer - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:01 pm:

    OW,
    I have a hard time seeing Rauner or the GOP offering any sort of political indemnity for a deal.
    They see this as a reckoning for past sins and its going to be used.

    I don’t see any motivation for a deal on either side short of a shutdown.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:05 pm:

    - Ebenezer -

    That’s the rub, isn’t it?

    The 2012 Rauner quote. This damage going on? Fine by the RaunerS.

    It’s a business decision.

    That said, there needs to be a budget… that’s why the MOUs


  15. - A guy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:07 pm:

    OK, Willy. Now speak to the actual post. What would inspire John and Jane Q. Public to believe that the H Dems are a trustworthy group?

    You’ve made your case on Rauner. Now, explain how people would view a “trust” statement coming from the House Dems and the Speaker to have any level of legitimacy with people of the State of Illinois?


  16. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:09 pm:

    ===Now, explain how people would view a “trust” statement coming from the House Dems and the Speaker to have any level of legitimacy with people of the State of Illinois===

    MOUs

    Dems said they want them.

    Spells out what is lacking, trust.


  17. - Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:13 pm:

    “Wordslinger -

    The Dems should consider making the great leap forward to the 1990s when it comes to message delivery and maybe they wouldn’t worry about Rauner so much. It’s not like his crew is dazzling with the message.

    Right now, Dems are getting clobbered because they’re not in the ballgame.”

    AMEN BROTHER! Amen. Our problems are of our own making. The old ways are dying.


  18. - Kyle Hillman - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:19 pm:

    I swear not a single person I spoke to today has any clue what bossMadigan.com website is. It is not a public message campaign. It is a “under the dome” get under people’s skin campaign.

    And since the dome media covers it, they will keep adding names. (I don’t blame them).

    You really have to step back and ask - why would a Governor who has yet to pass a budget and who is days away from reaching campaign season (or nothing big ever happens time) - still pushing individual buttons? Why is he making it harder for rank and file Dems to trust him?

    And the only logical conclusion is that he believes he can win if nothing gets done. Scarily, I suspect the Dems do too.

    R.I.P. Human Services


  19. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:23 pm:

    ==The only attack that can be made about not saying anything or not having a message is that you don’t have a message.==

    And that message only has so much resonance since it’s a little Inside Baseball.


  20. - Michael Westen - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:24 pm:

    Right, Wordslinger, “their jobs” could easily be construed as voting on a budget proposed by the Governor, as proscribed by the Constitution, and decades of precedence.


  21. - Anony - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:29 pm:

    Hello Willy - without disagreeing on the contents of your post at 1:59….. I think we sometimes lose track of how little the average person pays attention to the details. I would venture a guess that under 10% of voters would recognize much, if anything, from your list. This is why Wordslinger is right - the Dems need to sell their story better, using modern tools.

    Rauner indeed has plenty of rascal in him. Perhaps this is one reason he and Madigan seem to be enemies - too much alike.

    Warm holiday wishes to you and your family, unless you are a Cardinals fan. :)


  22. - Not It - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:29 pm:

    The Democrats are experiencing something that the Republicans are very much accustomed to: the other side putting them in difficult positions. They don’t know how to function under such pressure and have taken to being cry babies.


  23. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:32 pm:

    Not It makes a valid argument, particularly about the House.


  24. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:35 pm:

    Who is the rascal in the CPS pension debacle?

    Of course in your eyes OW it is Rauner, not Madigan and Cullerton who did not even make an attempt to keep their word.

    Sham budgets? You think Democrats have clean hands on the that? LOL

    Ken Dunkin? You think it is up to Rauner to get 60 and 30 after the Dunkin debacle? Willful ignorance at it’s finest. Nothing will happen through the rank and file that is not approved by the Speaker and Senate President

    Good Friday massacre? Cullerton said they knew about the cuts before hand, The Speaker denied it.

    The Speaker has been in Springfield so long Little Rascals was still relevant


  25. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:38 pm:

    - Not It -

    Concur. Well said.

    It reminds me of the movie “Miracle” with the 1980 US Hockey team leading the “Russians” and the Russians not pulling the goalie (a tactical maneuver in hockey when behind late in a game) and one coach asking Head Coach Herb Brooks why they haven’t pulled the goalie, because…

    … they hadn’t been in a situation of losing and didn’t know what to do.

    You made me think of that. Great point.


  26. - Huh? - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:41 pm:

    I can’t figure out is why anybody trusts 1.4%. All I can figure out is that the republican’ts are afraid of his money and the political hit squad he has assembled. The Democrats won’t take his word because he says one thing and does the exact opposite.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:43 pm:

    ===f course in your eyes OW it is Rauner, not Madigan and Cullerton who did not even make an attempt to keep their word===

    The you should be cheering the hurting of Chicago students by Rauner’s choice of Veto. Only a governor can veto. You should be cheering!

    ===Sham budgets? You think Democrats have clean hands on the that? LOL===

    The shams were the removal of poison pills. Keep up.

    ===Ken Dunkin? You think it is up to Rauner to get 60 and 30 after the Dunkin debacle?===

    No. It’s up to a governor to get his 60 and 30 all the time, even through the leaders. The ignorance you’re ignoring was the constant “super majority” that never ever existed. Pay attention.

    ===Nothing will happen through the rank and file that is not approved by the Speaker and Senate President===

    Then Rauner needs to either show his 60 and 30 or admit there are no Democrats that support his issues.

    Can’t have it both ways.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:47 pm:

    - Anony -

    Since I was responding directly to - A Guy - and my audience would know of these things, I chose to grab from history we both could understand. In the response - A Guy - made no indication of the items I brought up he was not aware of them existing.

    My audience was not the public at large.

    Happy Holidays.


  29. - RNUG - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:57 pm:

    == Maybe the Dems should take the revenue projections using the current tax rates and give Rauner/the Executive branch the discretion to spend it as he sees fit (for the balance of this fiscal year). ==

    Only after earmarking projected revenue to pay the backlog of bills first … then let Rauner spend the rest, if any, in any manner he wants to.


  30. - Anony - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 2:57 pm:

    Willy, just taking the opportunity to use your list to follow-up on Wordslinger’s earlier point, and add my own about voters. Wasn’t disagreeing with or commenting on your point. Cheers.


  31. - wordslinger - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:08 pm:

    –Right, Wordslinger, “their jobs” could easily be construed as voting on a budget proposed by the Governor, as proscribed by the Constitution, and decades of precedence.–

    Of course, I get that. But read Brown’s complaint:

    –“That fills everybody with the expectation that if there were some kind of a budget agreement … once a vote was taken, there would be a never-ending series of attack ads. Robocalls, dark money, (and) character assassination sponsored by Governor (Bruce) Rauner.”–

    Yes, if there’s ever an “agreement,” Rauner will fund media whacking Dems who could be hurt by voting for it, even though he was for it.

    And Madigan will fund media whacking Republicans who could be hurt by voting for it, even if Madigan was for it.

    That’s not new. I think you can “trust” both sides will do it. That’s why you have structured roll calls, keeping your most vulnerable off tough votes.

    What I don’t understand, and have not for a very long time, is why the Dems are not selling — morning, noon and night, across 21st Century messaging platforms — the real damage to real people of squeeze-the-beast and the governor’s refusal, publicly stated mind you, to refuse to mitigate the damage by engaging in a budget process without pre-conditions.

    Why do they let him get away with the “reform” snake oil, without making him back it up? You could train a monkey to say or type “reform” all day long.

    But Rauner and his peeps, nearly two years in, can’t begin to articulate any rational ROI to the “reform” pre-conditions; they’re stuck on the same mindless talking points.

    And the Dems let them get away with it, every day.


  32. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:09 pm:

    Why would anyone be cheering?

    Taxpayers and families with school children should be weeping. Everyone should be disgusted by the backtracking on a deal. Sounds like you feel only one side (Republicans) have to keep their end of the bargain.

    Strictly optional for Cullerton and Madigan. You are the only “Republican” in the state who believes that.

    If Democrats truly don’t have a supermajority is up to them to either pass a budget on their terms with their members.

    They would have had to modify what they have proposed to get the missing 2 or 3 votes from their own party in the House but they could not.

    They also could not reconcile with the Senate. You somehow think it is 100 percent on Rauner to get a budget done. How exactly is he to compromise with the Speaker if Cullerton can’t?

    So Madigan took his ball and went home, with Senator Cullerton’s stop gap proposal in his back pocket.

    Now we are back to square one trying to recreate the 7 “successful unbalanced stop gaps”


  33. - wordslinger - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:10 pm:

    Guy, did you believe Rauner when he said he had no role in the dark-money negative attacks on Schock, Dillard, Brady and Rutherford?

    Was he telling the truth then?


  34. - Juvenal - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:19 pm:

    Rich & Not It:

    I think you are both missing the point.

    Have Democrats used rollcalls to put Republicans in tough positions? Sure.

    But not ever that I can recall when it came to something that required bipartisan support to pass that Democrats actually wanted.

    When you want something to pass, and it requires a structured, bipartisan rollcall, there is always another piece to the deal: both sides have to agree that the bill isn’t going to be the basis of attack ads.

    In other words: every Democrat who voted for George Ryan’s license fee hike could rest assured that neither Ryan, Daniels, or Pate would come after them.

    That trust is utterly lacking.

    And it doesn’t make a bipartisan agreement impossible, but it does make it that much more difficult, because now those Democrats have to be much more careful about what level of funding they can defend, not just for targets either. You have to assume that dark money is going to flood the streets of Chicago again against black caucus members accused of raising taxes for Boss Madigan.

    Heck, Rauner just spent money pillorying Forby for voting to confirm his own labor board appointments.

    Much. More. Difficult.


  35. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:19 pm:

    ===Taxpayers===

    We’re all taxpayers. Use your words, who isn’t a taxpayer?

    === with school children should be weeping. Everyone should be disgusted by the backtracking on a deal. Sounds like you feel only one side (Republicans) have to keep their end of the bargain===

    Welp, you should cheer. Rauner vetoed, as only a governor can, and personally hurt Chicago students.

    Rauner didn’t want to do it, he felt he owed it to the students to be hurt.

    It. Was Rauner’s. Choice.

    No one else.

    ===If Democrats truly don’t have a supermajority is up to them to either pass a budget on their terms with their members.===

    Rauner’s veto. There was never a super majority.

    What else ya got.

    ===They also could not reconcile with the Senate. You somehow think it is 100 percent on Rauner to get a budget done. How exactly is he to compromise with the Speaker if Cullerton can’t?===

    Did I miss where Cullerton agreed to a phantom Rauner budget? Cite please.

    Governors need budgets to sign. That’s how it works.

    Always has.


  36. - Honeybear - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:26 pm:

    Wordslinger- I hate to say it but could it be possible that DEMS don’t care about the damage either? The marginalized and oppressed have always been voiceless, unseen and unheard. Since time in memorium. Only retro actively to we ascribe voice and agency as we did with civil rights OR they are heard if they get out of hand and commit civil disturbances. We haven’t had civil disturbance so nothing is heard or accountably is not pinned. Remember when they cussed the Govermor that one time hoe animated people got? Dead private social service agencies make no demands. They just die. Sure DEMS trot them out but opening their mouths about the damage might bring scrutiny about why they didn’t do more. In the meantime we may get a few fires in East St Loyis that won’t be put out. Homeless folks may die tonight in uptown.

    I get what DEMS are doing. I agree but I honestly don’t think they give much of a crap about the human damage. ESL fire department and the Uptown Tent City tell me so.

    Sorry DEMS. That’s why I left ya.


  37. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:49 pm:

    OW consistently, deliberately obtuse, day after day.

    All taxpayers, suffer from a lack of a pension deal. The only one’s who benefit are legislators and other pension recipients. No surprise they are not voting to cut their pensions even though they did promise to try. Much easier to just soak it to the taxpayers again especially in Chicago, where the average resident is experiencing a $1,700 tax increase over the next few years.

    Democrats can’t agree among Democrats, yet you think the Republican Governor can magically craft a compromise from leaders who won’t yield an inch.

    The Leader and Springield Democrats cloak themselves as defending the middle class, all the while fighting property tax reform and pushing mandates which raise taxes on middle class families.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 3:55 pm:

    ===The only one’s who benefit are legislators and other pension recipients===

    Pension recipents. They’ve earned those pensions. The ILSC has made that clear, and they ate to be paid.

    ===No surprise they are not voting to cut their pensions even though they did promise to try.===

    What is this, a jealousy, a what? What is this based on?

    ===Much easier to just soak it to the taxpayers again especially in Chicago, where the average resident is experiencing a $1,700 tax increase over the next few years.===

    Property taxes are still lower than the suburbs in percentages. So there’s that.

    === fighting property tax reform and pushing mandates which raise taxes on middle class families===

    Code for Prevailing Wage and Collective Bargaining.

    Labor isn’t the issue, yours and Rauner’s contempt for Labor is.


  39. - justacitizen - Thursday, Dec 15, 16 @ 9:18 pm:

    just reading thread. Can’t think of a worse job than spokesperson for MM.


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