Chicago murders driving up national rate
Tuesday, Dec 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Great. Just great…
The violence in Chicago has continued unabated for much of 2016, with murders and shootings both far ahead of last year even with days left in December. Chicago is one of multiple major American cities seeing an increase in killings since last year, deaths that are coming during a historically safe era but that have still sparked concerns in communities seeing more bloodshed.
Yet even though several cities have seen homicides go up, the situation in Chicago stands out, both through sheer numbers and the impact it is having on murder rates nationwide.
Consider this statistic: The murder rate for the country’s 30 biggest cities is expected to go up by 14 percent this year, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a New York-based law and policy institute. But the killings in Chicago account for an astounding 43.7 percent of this overall increase in murders, meaning that Chicago alone is responsible for nearly half of this spike. […]
In Chicago so far this year, there were 738 murders through Sunday night, according to a police spokesman. The city seems poised to potentially top 750 murders for the year, a staggering total and one that means Chicago will finish 2016 with more killings than it has seen in nearly two decades.
The horror show could very well be what’s causing so much out-migration from the city’s far South Side, which Greg Hinz pegged at almost a 50,000 net loss between 2010 and 2015. That means the far South Side has essentially lost another ward’s worth of people after losing almost 100,000 between 2000 and 2010.
* Related…
* Medical examiner identifies all four people shot to death in Far South Side home
* Sneed: Special grand jury sends subpoenas in Laquan McDonald case
* Chicago Cop In Portillo’s Attack Pistol-Whipped Driver In Different Incident
- A guy - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:54 am:
Ugh.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:02 pm:
Romeoville meets Chicago. and not in a good way.
- South of Sherman - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:18 pm:
I’m sure those people are leaving because we don’t have term limits or a local property tax freeze.
- train111 - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:02 pm:
So is the ‘horror show’ on the South Side the cause of this out-migration or is it the result of the out-migration of the middle class and the instability that causes? Seems like the area is in a death spiral.
- proudstatetrooper - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:17 pm:
HeyJackass.com reports 771 total murders in 2016 thus far.
4,250 shot with 692 resulting deaths. Me thinks the homicide rate could reach 800. Hey Hey Chicago. Your #1.
- Mokenavince - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:39 pm:
The in some parts of the So. Side of Chicago is a horror show. In most of the So. Side its pretty quiet.
The gang bosses are mostly gone. And whats left are killing one another and by standers by accident.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:42 pm:
From Sneed’s article, “The grand jury is hearing evidence about whether police officers tried to cover up what happened in the aftermath of the fatal shooting of McDonald, 17, in October 2014.”
Like there is a question as to whether police tried to cover up? Since only two of five cameras on the scene of the McDonald shooting were “working” the question is why Kwame Raoul’s 2015 SB1304 Body Cam bill does not have criminal penalties for police who destroy evidence? That’s encouraging police to delete the tapes.
How is it that Raoul is hailed as the great civil libertarian from Hyde Park and inheritor of Obama’s legacy, when his committee ran the Body Cam bill? I expect good old boys from southern IL like Brandon Phelps and Gary Forby to be in bed with police unions like they were on their concealed carry bill, but who is looking out for the people in Chicago and Cook County at the Capitol?
- Cook County Commoner - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:47 pm:
Question: Do the gang shootings on the Interstate Highway system passing through Chicago perhaps empower the federal government via the Commerce Clause to introduce federal troops onto the highways without violating the posse commitatus prohibitions?
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:56 pm:
===The horror show could very well be what’s causing so much out-migration from the city’s far South Side, which Greg Hinz pegged at almost a 50,000 net loss between 2010 and 2015. That means the far South Side has essentially lost another ward’s worth of people after losing almost 100,000 between 2000 and 2010.
I think there is a question of whether the population loss might have lead to the increased violence. At least there is a cycle of one leading to the other leading to the other. You can think of William Julius Wilson’s work on communities.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:04 pm:
Usually when it comes to crime stats I tell everyone not to worry, the US is far, far less violent than the crack epidemic years or actually 1970 through 1996. Except Chicago may match 1996 and that means Chicago, unlike most of the nation is having crime rates of the bad old days.
Seriously, somehow Chicago is reliving the worst crime years of the country while the rest of the country has murder rates at historically low rates. Worse, 2014 murders in Chicago was the lowest since the mid 1960s.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:07 pm:
===troduce federal troops onto the highways without violating the posse commitatus prohibitions?
I guess I understand the impulse to try anything, but what exactly can federal troops do to prevent domestic crime? Wholesale violations of the 4th & 5th Amendment? The military would tell you they are not a police force for good reason. They are designed to kill people, not keep the peace.
Chicago is 2 years out of historically low murder rates. What has changed in Chicago that hasn’t changed elsewhere?
- Roman - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:19 pm:
He’ll never say it out loud, but some good news here, if you’re Rahm. Poor people are leaving the city. Affluent, young people are moving in.
Some real bad news here if it’s your job to draw the next legislative map and you want to comply with the Voting Rights Act. It could be that by 2020, Chicago will have lost about 300,000 African-American residents over two decades. Those legislative districts that extend from the South Side to Kankakee can’t be stretch much more.
- Keyser Soze - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:23 pm:
The Chicago PD will serve and protect if it houses the Portillo cop in a broom closet, pending termination, if not prosecution.
- Cook County Commoner - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:25 pm:
=== but what exactly can federal troops do to prevent domestic crime ==
Although the Military Police Corps can function as an adjunct in military operations (kill people, break things), it does have a “law and order” enforcement side, which is very similar to state and municipal gov police agencies.
If the current cost of traditional police staffing is inhibiting a needed force increase, this is a resource which could be explored or imposed, assuming the feds have an in-road as I queried. I presume no local pol would ask for such help except in the most dire situation.
- Telly - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:31 pm:
Chicago’s violence had been trending down (like the rest of the nation) for 20 years. Believe it or not, in 2014, Chicago had it’s lowest violent crime rate since the 1960’s.
The huge spike this year is unbelievable. What’s changed? Laquan McDonald, the Ferguson Effect, and state and city budget cuts might all play a role.
But how about the sizable drop in population levels at Cook County Jail and the Illinois Department of Corrections? Could it be there are more repeat offenders on the street than there were a few years ago?
I’m not sure there’s any cause and effect here, but we should at least ask the question before we plow head-long into more criminal justice reform.
- NothsideNoMore - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:32 pm:
Roman drive the southside and some south suburbs nearer the lake. The young affluent are not moving in and others are just leaving it behind. Crime is rampant people are bailing out. The transitional areas only occurring (or has occurred) in the south/west loop past printers row etc. Get south of 22nd and/or west of Ashland. Real Bad stuff going down there every day.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 3:23 pm:
== it does have a “law and order” enforcement side,
Fair enough, but I’m not convinced it’s a manpower issue.
===the Ferguson Effect,
There is no evidence of the existence of the Ferguson Effect.
- Chicagonk - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 4:41 pm:
The state legislature and executive branch have washed their hands clean of the violence. So too has the judiciary. They all sure do like to blame the police tho.
- Telly - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 4:57 pm:
@ArchPundit, I agree there is no empirical evidence of the Ferguson Effect, which is why I used the word “might.”
There is, however, data driven evidence that suggests Chicago police officers may have gone into slow-down mode. Written citiations are down, arrests are down, and homicide clearance rates are way down.
Maybe it’s because of the new paperwork requirements on street stops, or because of manpower shortages, or poor community relations that result in less cooperation from witnesses and neighborhood activists. Something is going on.
I’d suggest the Ferguson Effect is an anecdotal driven theory that needs much more study before we dismiss it or embrace it with confidence.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 5:51 pm:
===I’d suggest the Ferguson Effect is an anecdotal driven theory that needs much more study before we dismiss it or embrace it with confidence.
Fair. Thanks