A look ahead at 2018
Wednesday, Jan 4, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tina Sfondeles takes a look at the 2018 gubernatorial race…
The Illinois Republican Party said in a statement that the race will be a choice between change for the state and protecting the status quo: “2018 will present a clear choice between those like Governor Rauner who want to reform state government so it works for taxpayers, and those who will protect the status quo that only benefits political insiders and special interests,” spokesman Steven Yaffe said.
A veteran Democratic strategist said a strong Rauner challenger must have no ties to Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan — whom Rauner’s Republicans spent millions to tarnish in legislative races — along with the capability of raising lots of campaign cash.
Others say candidates also need some national recognition.
“I would say that you really need to have the ability to build a coalition, a statewide coalition of individuals who really care about the state and the direction that it’s going in. And I think that coupled with a real message I think that resonates with the electorate. And obviously, the ability to raise the necessary resources, both within the state and also whatever support or outreach they have nationally,” said Hanah Jubeh, a consultant to Kennedy. “I think those three elements are going to be kind of the secret sauce to beating Rauner.”
Besides the money factor, strategists say there is a concerted effort to find someone with the greatest chance of beating Rauner — even putting individual political aspirations aside. There is much talk of the importance of uniting behind the best candidate, strategists told the Chicago Sun-Times.
Go read the whole thing.
* Mark Brown’s take…
I agree on this much with Ameya Pawar, the 47th Ward alderman who on Tuesday offered himself as the longest of long shots looking to replace Bruce Rauner in the governor’s office:
The Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 doesn’t necessarily need to be someone of exceptional wealth who can match Rauner’s money.
What Democrats need more is someone with good ideas who can offer — and effectively communicate — a vision for Illinois’ future that can compete with Rauner’s.
To be sure, having a lot of money could be very helpful in communicating that message, as it has proven to be for Rauner, who has effectively taken control of the public discussion with his “Mike Madigan is the root of all evil” campaign.
But at some point, and it might not come in 2018 with Madigan still on the scene, there’s going to be a voter backlash against the efforts of the state’s wealthiest people to reshape government in their own images.
“Effectively communicate” is the operative phrase. If you can’t do that, you’re toast. Rauner has a simple, basic message that effectively taps into populist anger and he brazenly ties literally every issue under the sun to that message. The Democrats, in turn, have done almost nothing to knock him off his game. They need a candidate for governor who can do that and lots more.
* Related…
* Aide: Bustos ’seriously considering’ run at Rauner: “Cheri (Bustos) thinks Bruce Rauner has been an absolute disaster for working families in her district and across our state, so she’s committed to making sure Democrats have a candidate who can defeat him in 2018,” Stacy Raker, senior adviser to Bustos, said in a statement Monday.
* Reeder: It’s all about the power: Rauner views his election as a voter indictment of the longtime political boss, who he blames for Illinois’ fiscal ills. And he’s right for blaming Madigan. But Rauner has done a poor job of messaging about why he is engaged in this struggle. I’ve covered every governor since James R. Thompson and this administration has done the worst job by far of sharing its vision for the state. Because of this, voters view this conflict as a personality clash between two egos rather than a conflict between divergent political philosophies. Madigan is hell-bent on making sure Rauner has no successes to run on when he seeks re-election. And the people of Illinois are suffering for it.
- ZC - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:41 am:
I like at least that Pawar has come out the gate with his own populist proposal that millionaires in Illinois should pay more to pay for the cost of public education. That poll tests exceedingly well (and did as a ballot referendum) and it is one of Rauner’s potential weaknesses. He goes on and on about how he’s following “the will of the people” by supporting term limits, so when it comes to the millionaire’s tax and his following the people’s wishes, Rauner has to change the subject fast.
- Not quite a majority - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:42 am:
Excuse me if I’m wrong, but in 2018 wouldn’t BVR be the ’status quo’ and anyone running against him but the ‘agent of change’? I don’t think IL GOP gets to redefine what status quo means just because things are going BVR’s way.
- Not Rich - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:47 am:
Oscar the pup for GOV 2018.. he is our only chance…
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:48 am:
=== I don’t think IL GOP gets to redefine what status quo means===
They do as long as nobody else has a competing message.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:50 am:
===They do as long as nobody else has a competing message.===
It used to be that reality and actual facts were their own “competing message” and reporters and commentators noted when the message strayed from reality.
But that was a long time ago.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:52 am:
===and reporters and commentators noted when the message strayed from reality===
Many still do.
- Annonin' - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:53 am:
Not sure who the unnamed veteran Democratic stategist is but we think it is same to assume the bottomless bowl of GOPie/IPie/Rauner slop will be constantly poured over the head of any Democratic candidate. Everyone will be Madigan’s best friend. Reeder assessment of Rauner’s bumbles is accurate so he must be the dog house. What a shame
- North Shore Joe - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:00 pm:
“I would say that you really need to have the ability to build a coalition, a statewide coalition of individuals who really care about the state and the direction that it’s going in. And I think that coupled with a real message I think that resonates with the electorate. And obviously, the ability to raise the necessary resources, both within the state and also whatever support or outreach they have nationally,” said Hanah Jubeh, a consultant to Kennedy. “I think those three elements are going to be kind of the secret sauce to beating Rauner.”
“Well, ya know, if we win all 3 phases; Offense, Defense, and Special Teams, that’s really kinda the secret to winnin’ this football game.
Getouttahere!
- Steve - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:04 pm:
The Democrats do have a lot going for them in the next election. In this Blue state, they do have an infrastructure of thousands of government workers. The Democrats proved they can be competitive with Rauner with spending way less money. Also, with Illinois losing population : that probably favors the Democrats in a close race because many leaving are doing it for lower taxes . When 84% of Chicago voted for Hillary Clinton, you know you are in the game.
- slow down - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:05 pm:
Does Bustos have any ties to Madigan? Anyone have any thoughts on her strengths and weaknesses?
- Altgelds Ghost - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:28 pm:
The reality is Madigan is the status quo. Period. As long as Madigan is Speaker and Chairman of the Democratic Party all Dem candidates will be tied to him and the status quo of our failing state.
Maybe try talking to regular Illinoisans of every race and geography. Except for certain constituencies whose bread is buttered by Madigan, people are united in the belief that Madigan is the problem and they are disgusted that Rauner hasn’t even been given a chance to fix the problems.
For God sakes, he won’t even give up being Chairman of DPI His narcissism knows no end.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:33 pm:
===The Democrats proved they can be competitive with Rauner with spending way less money.===
Neither end of that sentence is correct. They proved they could be competitive in districts where more Democrats lived. They spent just as much and are beholden to many more.
There is still momentum and movement to the message regarding the Speaker. It’s growing every day election year or not. It’s coming down to districts that are Concrete Hard Blue…and everywhere else.
- QCLib - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:47 pm:
Bustos’s weakness is she thinks she’s better than she is. I always got the feeling that she was just “there for the ride” rather than running because she wanted to make a difference.
Her strengths are her connections and she obviously follows instructions well because she won her current seat.
Others can chime in and say I’m right or wrong or add…
- Telly - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:55 pm:
The winning message for a Dem candidate is to campaign against both Rauner and Madigan. Knock on doors in Dem districts and you’ll find plenty of “Hard D’s” who think the Speaker is part of the problem.
Certain political pros, (like Noonan and Reyes, and some of the folks helping Kennedy,) won’t advise their Dem clients to attack Madigan because it will hurt the lobbying wing of their business.
- Fixer - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:02 pm:
Altgeld’s Ghost, how has Rauner had no chance? He’s a governor. He needs to stop campaigning and start governing.
- HL Mencken - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:02 pm:
I think it is time that Madigan be the statesman and announce that he will not run for reelection in 2018.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:12 pm:
Seems like it’d be awfully hard for an incumbent Governor to run against the status quo.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:17 pm:
===awfully hard for an incumbent Governor to run against the status quo===
Blagojevich did it.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:21 pm:
“Blagojevich did it.”
Oh, joy!
- DuPage - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:31 pm:
Status quo=flat tax. If Rauner wants to change that to a progressive tax, I would go along with that change.
- W Flag - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:37 pm:
I dream of the day when it will be possible for State Senator Kwame Raoul to be introduced without referencing the fact that he succeeded Obama in the State Senate. It is almost as bad as the constant references to Kirk Dillard having worked for Jim Edgar.
- West Wing - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:39 pm:
Bustos has a work ethic that’s impressive and has been getting public support in the press from their chairman Doug House. She is a media professional from her hospital days and knows how to self promote at a rapid clip. She is aggressive and ambitious. She can’t point to congressional accomplishments. She may have quiet support from Team Durbin. She can raise money.
- Mokenavince - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:45 pm:
We can look to 2017 as the year 40,000 people leave the state. And 1000 people shot in Chicago.
Not much difference between Madigan,Rauner, and Rahm. Add our legislators no one seems to care.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:50 pm:
Perspective?
Governor
4 Constitutionals
State Senate, State House
Total cost…
Over/Under… $120 million
Rauner can do that, with Uihlein, Griffin, and Diana Rauner signing on to win, and control the next map, and control the turnout to make sure getting that map, or causing more damage happened.
Democrats…
Ald. Pawar can not only “lead with message”, but do it at a clip of, at least $120 million spread out to carry a whole ticket?
That’s the ball game.
Noonan. Ain’t. Wrong.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:52 pm:
I’ve laid out what I think is a winning strategy before:
Be for a progressive income tax that leaves most people paying the same or less in state tax while using the “excess” to increase K-12 school funding in combination with a mandated property tax formula tax specifying only x% (50%, 40%, 30% ?) of a property’s total tax can be for school district funding. It won’t be perfect but, done right, most people will pay the same or less in total state and local taxes.
To put it in a sound bite: Millionaire’s tax tied to permanent property tax relief
I know it would require at least one constitutional amendment, that there will need to be a transition between the two tax systems, and the devil will be in the details and numbers. But that is the kind of bold thinking that will be needed.
- Ares - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:59 pm:
Obama for Governor
- West Wing - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 2:31 pm:
To give you an idea of the Bustos media expertise, she has been on the front page of something like three of the last five newspapers in the Quad Cities, with comments about the possibility of running for Governor. She understands the huge potential in earned media. Underestimate her at your own risk. The typical consultant in Chicago or DC says, “So what … no one votes downstate.” Maybe that’s why Dems keep getting their brains crushed downstate - Dems gave up. And Dems forgot that about 35 percent of the vote in a general election comes from downstate.
- Fixer - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 2:36 pm:
RNUG for Governor 2018
- CrazyHorse - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 2:53 pm:
==Obama for Governor==
Lol. Now there’s one candidate who wouldn’t need to spend more than a few nickels to beat Rauner.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 2:59 pm:
== she has been on the front page of something like three of the last five newspapers in the Quad Cities==
Can she scale up that operation, though? That’s the key question. Getting on the front page of a local paper whilst considering a statewide run is just about the least you should be able to do.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 3:04 pm:
=== is just about the least you should be able to do===
Agreed.
I like Cheri. We’ll see if she has what it takes.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 4:04 pm:
== RNUG for Governor 2018 ==
To paraphrase General Sherman:
If nominated, I will not run.
If elected … heck, it might be fun to throw some monkey wrenches into the works.
- Piece of Work - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 4:55 pm:
Obama for Guv?? At least the golf courses would be busy. Wait until he finds out the state of Illinois can’t print money like the Feds.
Shovel ready jobs anybody???
- Loop Lady - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 8:25 pm:
Bruce is vulnerable on so many levels…the operation and message will be key…right Giangreco?
- DuPage Bard - Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:03 pm:
You have $120 million dollars? Do you? Because Bruce has $120 million dollars.
You have an immediate access to the media at any given time you want? Do you? Because Bruce can call any morning, afternoon or evening news channel across the State and be on TV in 10 minutes.
You have a statewide organization that’s been in operation for at least 2 years and has a drastically improved ground game? Do you? Because Bruce has funded an entire Statewide operation from campaign workers, outreach, social media, ground game plus he has his own set of newspapers all over Illinois.
These are just small pieces, if someone actually wants to run they have to realize what is already out there.