The latest Illinois credit rating downgrade from Fitch Ratings is chock full of phrases that could be used in the next campaign cycle against the governor and other incumbents.
The one that’s made the most headlines is “Unprecedented failure,” as in Fitch’s downgrade “reflects the unprecedented failure of the state to enact a full budget for two consecutive years and the financial implications of spending far in excess of available revenues, which has resulted in increased accumulated liabilities and reduced financial flexibility.”
But that’s just stating the obvious. Pretty much anybody paying half attention out there knows the people who run the government are participating in an “unprecedented failure.” This has never happened before in Illinois, or in any other state for that matter.
However, here’s another Fitch phrase: “Fundamentally weakened,” as in “Even if the current attempts at a resolution to the extended impasse prove successful, Fitch believes that the failure to act to date has fundamentally weakened the state’s financial profile.”
In other words, digging out from under this impasse is going to be a long, hard, painful slog. And the longer the impasse lasts, the more difficult that process will become.
As the state’s economic activity appears to slow, a third Fitch observation is worth noting here: “Illinois has failed to capitalize on the economic growth of recent years to bolster its financial position.”
While other states were piling up surpluses during the national economic recovery, Illinois was creating a mountain of debt mainly because Democrats allowed the 2011 tax hike to partially expire and the Republican governor wouldn’t negotiate a new revenue and spending deal until he got his precious economic reforms. So if the national economy does enter a recession in the coming months, Illinois will be in a truly horrible spot.
One more phrase from Fitch: “Very weak,” as in “Illinois’ operating performance, both during the great recession and in this subsequent period of economic growth, has been very weak.”
Starting in 2002, Illinois has elected three governors in a row who can’t seem to get their arms around the job. And, instead of helping them do their jobs, legislative Democrats, particularly in the House, have preferred to fight and obstruct them. Even the income tax hike turned out to be a failure because it was temporary, expiring midway through a fiscal year while a Democratic governor was heading out the door. “Very weak,” indeed.
And speaking of weak, Gov. Bruce Rauner indicated to the Chicago Tribune last week that he plans to propose a budget much like the one he unveiled last year. In other words, yet another punt.
Last year, the governor punted on $3.5 billion in cuts needed to put his proposal into balance. Instead of outlining the actual cuts, and therefore wearing the political jacket for suggesting those cuts, he simply said he was willing to work with the General Assembly on finding where to cut or the GA could give him the authority to make the cuts on his own—without first explaining where he would cut.
If cuts became necessary, the governor told his legislative audience last year, “I would ask the legislature to work with us to make these tough decisions. If you are not willing to do that, then give the Executive Branch the flexibility to reallocate resources and make reductions to state spending as necessary.”
And this is what Gov. Rauner told the Tribune last week: “Either the General Assembly authorizes me to make cuts, not my first choice but I’ll do that, or let’s work together to do a balanced budget with cuts and, what I prefer is, a balance of cuts, some revenues and major structural change.”
State law forbids governors from using revenue streams that aren’t currently in place to balance their budget proposals. Rod Blagojevich did that time and time again, coming up with tax or fee plans that magically balanced his proposal. But every reform has its downside, and the downside to this one is that instead of using phony revenues to balance a budget plan, Gov. Rauner has used phony cuts.
The root of “leadership” is “lead,” and that, by definition, means going first. Our state Constitution, however flawed, built that leadership into its two main budgetary mandates. First, the governor proposes a balanced budget, then the General Assembly passes a balanced spending plan. Neither have worked out too well of late, or for quite a while. But the state constitutional convention delegates obviously wanted governors to lead.
Instead, we get six downgrades in the last two years.
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:13 am:
Rauner has invested a lot of money in this hobby, and he wants things his own way.
State government is the vehicle for him to achieve what he’s entitled to for his spending.
If he can’t get what he wants, when he wants it, then core responsibilities and the people will have to suffer until he does. Only one person’s desires matter.
Rauner’s a walkin’, talkin,’ one-man multi-billion-dollar government entitlement program.
- Robert the Bruce - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:20 am:
Enjoyed the column.
Honest questions to the attorneys here: is there no teeth in the Constitutional mandate that the governor submit a balanced budget? Why can that part of the Constitution be ignored, while other parts are followed?
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:22 am:
==is there no teeth in the Constitutional mandate that the governor submit a balanced budget? Why can that part of the Constitution be ignored, while other parts are followed?==
For one thing, we can argue over when a budget is “balanced”. But for another, it’s not clear who has standing.
- Out Here In The Middle - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:24 am:
Robert - I’m not an attorney, but isn’t that what the AG is trying to do? Apply those “teeth”?
- wordslinger - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:31 am:
I’d say that Quinn wrapped his head around the job enough to slash the backlog of bills in half and get the annual budget on solid footing after the fiscal crash of the Great Recession.
By the standards that Candidate Rauner held Gov. Quinn to in the campaign, Gov. Rauner is an epic failure.
- UIC Guy - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:31 am:
Thanks, Rich—great piece.
As for the teeth, I think the main problem is that the constitution has no enforcement mechanism. A judge can issue a restraining order preventing executive action from going into effect, but I don’t see how such action can be compelled. And then, yes, there’s the question of whether a budget is balanced. —In a well-run state this would not be an issue, but here…. (Why are we so poorly governed?)
- Last Bull Moose - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:33 am:
The constitutional solution is impeachment and conviction. Trying that makes no sense until enough Republican Senators commit to removing Rauner.
Nixon resigned when Republican Senators told him they would vote to convict. They put country over self and party. We are not seeing that in Illinois.
Spines may stiffen if the State shuts down March 1. But I see no movement towards courage.
- JS Mill - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:34 am:
=By the standards that Candidate Rauner held Gov. Quinn to in the campaign, Gov. Rauner is an epic failure.=
Be as partisan as you like, but the fact is that Wordslinger is 100% accurate here. If the governor judged himself as harshly as others like Quinn, the facts in evidence are crystal clear.
Failure.
- sal-says - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 9:41 am:
== But the state constitutional convention delegates obviously wanted governors to lead. Instead, we get six downgrades in the last two years. ==
Apparently, that IS Raunner’s concept of leading. Been doing that now for 2 straight years. Leading IL straight towards complete destruction.
Oppose bad government.
- Cubs in '16 - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 10:01 am:
Last Bull Moose is 100% correct. It appears the State has two options: either Republican legislators develop a conscience and decide enough is enough or we wait until Nov. 2018 and hope Rauner isn’t reelected. If the R legislators feel beholden to Rauner because of the money I suggest they return it and put the best interests of the State over Rauner’s wants.
- Earnest - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 10:03 am:
>Leading IL straight towards complete destruction.
That’s an interesting observation. I agree to a point.
He is leading us to the destruction of the current systems of higher education and human services. I can picture his idea of a new human service system ran by large corporations. I’m not entirely sure what his idea of a higher education system will be, though it will likely involve fewer state universities. I would assume both would be comprised of a much lower level of state spending than they are now.
He is leading us to the destruction of public and private unions. It seems his idea there is a more business-friendly state. Do lower wages and fewer worker protections create more jobs than a strong higher education system?
He is destroying the Illinois Democratic Party’s financial advantages by outspending them, bleeding their funds as they try to compete, and drying up the traditional source of union campaign fund donations. I think Illinois benefits from two strong parties, but fear his efforts to put the legislative branch under his firm control.
I would have to agree he is destroying things, but don’t see it as an end in and of itself. He’s brilliant, industrious and wants what he perceives to be good things for the state.
- wondering - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 10:19 am:
UIC Guy: Check out “writ of mandamus”. The Court can order Rauner to submit a budget and he will do so or face contempt, Along with very rear risk of legal punishment, contempt of court would make a primafacie case for impeachment and removal. There are legal remedies if the Court and the G.A. elect to use them. If they do not, they are even more culpable than Rauner.
- Ginhouse Tommy - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 11:26 am:
I said it a long time ago, they don’t care what happens to the state. You have to be cold blooded and have a conscience as hollow as the Grand Canyon to see the fiscal devastation that is happening to this state and then sit there and do nothing. Neither one of these selfish clowns cares as long as they get their way. The legacy they are writing for themselves is not one I would want attached to me. I don’t think either man has a soul. What a mess.
- Anonymous Lee - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 11:29 am:
Arsenal -
Unlike some states, there is no arguing over what or when the notion of “balanced” is applicable. From the Constitution:
“The Governor shall prepare and submit to the General Assembly, at a time prescribed by law, a State budget for the ensuing fiscal year. The budget shall set forth the estimated balance of funds available for appropriation at the beginning
of the fiscal year, the estimated receipts, and a plan for expenditures and obligations during the fiscal year…The budget shall also set forth the indebtedness and contingent liabilities of the State and such other information as may be
required by law. Proposed expenditures shall not exceed funds estimated to be available for the fiscal year as shown in the budget.”
State law went further under a statute championed by former state Senator Dan Kotowski known as the “Unicorn Tax Amendment” and signed into law by Gov. Quinn. It prohibits the governor from introducing a purportedly balanced budget based upon revenue enhancements that have not been enacted yet, such as the “Unicorn Tax” and “The Waste, Fraud, and Abuse Ban Act.”
As for cause of action: any taxpayer can file a lawsuit naming the governor. Blagojevich was successfully sued for sweeping funds deposited for motor cycle safety training, i believe.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 11:40 am:
Rauner is a venture capitalist. They don’t lead. They are passive vultures that enrich themselves off the work of other leaders. Rauner doesn’t earn, he buys. He bought the governorship and is now sitting and waiting for others to fail. Rauner thrived on failure. He is that persistent rascal who fits the meat off each carrion he buys.
Rauner is a junk man who believes he knows how to build a better car because he made millions selling scrap. He never built anything. He milks.
There is a very real difference between one who builds, leads and earns, and a Bruce Rauner. Rauner isn’t a leader. He isn’t a builder. He isn’t a compromiser. He is a vandal who starves the things he buys, so there remains nothing left.
Rauner is a government change agent as Dr. Kervorkian was a healer. Both men stand back and let the suffering take their tolls. After he disposes of his patients, both men clain success.
Post Rauner, the GOP must recognize that putting someone in charge of government - who hates government - is a spectacular disaster for government.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 11:46 am:
===Rauner is a venture capitalist===
Nope. He’s a roll-up specialist, and a good one.
- RNUG - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
== If the R legislators feel beholden to Rauner because of the money I suggest they return it and put the best interests of the State over Rauner’s wants. ==
A true politican would keep the money and STILL vote against him.
- UIC Guy - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 1:07 pm:
@ - wondering - Thanks for the response. Any insight as to why this has not already been done?
- No Trolls Need Apply - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 1:46 pm:
Anonymous Lee at 11:29
Who would be the best Springfield Lawyer to start the action?
Anyone here willing to donate financial support once such action is started?
- Ginhouse Tommy - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 4:35 pm:
To those who say the GOP showed no courage standing up to the Gov. then why didn’t the Dems. show some backbone in re-electing Madigan to another term as Speaker. That blade swings both ways and no I am not defending the GOP or the Gov. What’s fair is fair and like everyone else I wish there was a solution to this madness.
- peon - Monday, Feb 6, 17 @ 5:23 pm:
= Gov. Bruce Rauner indicated to the Chicago Tribune last week that he plans to propose a budget much like the one he unveiled last year. In other words, yet another punt. =
This doubling down tells all, as it comes after 2 years of zero success with this strategy, and considerable collateral damage to our state.