Are Rauner’s new TV ads working?
Tuesday, Apr 11, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Gov. Bruce Rauner’s approval ratings have seen a big bump compared to his numbers before the presidential election, according to a Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday.
The poll finds that Rauner improved his approval rating to 42 percent, compared to the 33 percent he fared in September, prior to the presidential election. His disapproval rating dropped from 56 percent to 49 percent over the same time period.
However, Rauner is still in the bottom 10 in the rankings, coming in 43rd out of 50 in terms of governors with the best approval ratings. Fifteen governors had approval ratings below 50 percent in the poll.
Rauner’s approval and disapproval ratings are about the same as Robert Bentley who just resigned as governor of Alabama after a sex scandal.
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker ranked first with a 75 percent approval rating. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie polled the worst with just a 25 percent approval rating.
* Take this poll with a grain of salt, however. Here is its methodology…
More than 85,000 registered voters in America have evaluated the job performance of key elected officials on Morning Consult’s weekly online national polling from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest Senator & Governor Approval Rankings.
On each poll, Americans indicated whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of President Donald Trump, their state Governor, both of their U.S. Senators, their Member of Congress and their mayor (if they lived in a city with more than about 10,000 residents). For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know / no opinion.
Morning Consult obtained an up-to-date list of Governors, U.S. Senators and U.S. Representatives from Sunlight Foundation’s Congress API v3 and Open States API and obtained a list of mayors from the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Survey respondents were assigned to their appropriate Governor and both U.S. Senators based on their state of residence, assigned to their Member of Congress based on a combination of zip code, IP address, latitude and longitude, and assigned to their mayor based on their state and zip code.
We obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS). We applied post-stratification weights based on gender, age, educational attainment and race.
Notice anything missing? How were respondents contacted? How did they respond? When were they contacted?
But, their last survey tracked with other polls, so maybe they’re right.
* Related…
* Is Rauner polling on Democrats in governor’s race?: The respondent said the poll asked if Rauner or his chief political nemesis, Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, was responsible for the Springfield impasse and whether Madigan’s tenure was part of the ingrained problems at the statehouse. In addition, the poll asked questions about Democratic governor candidates Chris Kennedy and J.B. Pritzker, including a voting preference for either one as well as an opinion of each of the two candidates. The survey did not mention two others in the contest, Northwest Side Ald. Ameya Pawar and state Sen. Daniel Biss of Evanston.
- Not Rich - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:27 am:
when the “dark money” ads start to hit him hard, his numbers will drop back in the low 30’s.. our Sox fan host will like this “HE GONE”!!!!
- Chucktownian - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:29 am:
I suspect he and Trump have about the same approval rating in Illinois. There’s not a lot of difference between. Neither has any idea how to do the job they’ve been elected to do.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:31 am:
I do know this…
I watched the NCAA championship game with 8 people. When the Rauner ad ran twice, both times, everyone cringed. “Why?”? The number one reasons? “He’s running ads like he’s not the governor” and “Has he accomplished anything?”
It’s reinforcing to some his ineffectiveness.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:31 am:
1) Rauner’s certainly not acting like his numbers are improving (And getting them improved to the point where you match the guy who just resigned in disgrace is dubious, anyway).
2) But they might be! If they are, though, I doubt it’s because of the ads; this poll ran somewhere from January to March (as near as I can tell; as Rich said, this is a very…interesting methodology), and the ads have only been out for the last two weeks.
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:32 am:
They probably are right. Advertising works. Blaming Madigan for everything works. Winning a race is about perception and not about reality. The dems aren’t going to get rid of Madigan, unless Rauner wins reelection. Loyalty to Mike Madigan could be a very crucial mistake. He is the linchpin to the entire campaign to reelect the governor. And if the governor continues to do what he is doing, and the democrats continue to do what they are doing, he has a shot.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:34 am:
==I watched the NCAA championship game with 8 people. When the Rauner ad ran twice, both times, everyone cringed. “Why?”? The number one reasons? “He’s running ads like he’s not the governor” and “Has he accomplished anything?”==
Anecdotally, I’m seeing the same thing. It was even worse during the Cubs game (maybe people really don’t like when bumbling Governors crowd into their sports celebrations?). But I still have to think that the fact that he’s running positive spots at all will matter more than how “Effective” those spots are.
- Dubious - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:34 am:
When did Rauner’s ads start airing? Didn’t seem like that long ago.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:35 am:
So DopeyDuct is doin’ okeedokee. Great. Anyone else wonder why he is roamin’ around IL for 2 days tryin’ to mooch gas and pizza money and blabbin’ about workin’ groups.
The fundraisin’ note said he was “listenin’
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:35 am:
==He is the linchpin to the entire campaign to reelect the governor.==
Definitely true, but I think Team Superstar underrates how easy it’s going to be for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate to create some daylight between themselves and Madigan.
- Will - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:36 am:
Only if you believe Rauner wears cowboy shirts and belts, and has a workshop filled with tools at home. He’s just another Central Illinois rural working guy. Right.
- Terry Salad - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:37 am:
If the goal of Rauner’s corny flannel-wearing good ole boy tooling around in his workshop is to make me sick, then yes. They are working.
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:38 am:
@Arsenal
I hope you are right. But you have a higher opinion of the general public’s ability to disseminate information than I do.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:38 am:
When he is matched up against the Democratic candidate, watch for his support to increase!
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:48 am:
==But you have a higher opinion of the general public’s ability to disseminate information than I do.==
Actually, just the opposite. It goes back to when we talked about Biss last week; he comes out and says “I’m fighting the millionaires AND the machine!” and then his opponents try to come back and say, “Well, but Biss ran the LIFT PAC, and if you look at it’s funding” and blah blah blah. Voters don’t care about that explanation. “When you’re explaining, you’re losing.”
Now, when it gets interesting, and it’s a question of when, not if, is when Rauner gets out the simple, pithy hit. That’ll help him. Possibly a lot. But right now, I suspect he’s overly reliant on the anti-Madigan strategy.
Whatever. Primary’s a year away. He can change tactics easily if he must.
- Stoveboy - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:51 am:
I would love to see Madigan in a commercial wearing a cowboy hat and another one of him wearing leather vest and a chain with his wallet attached, just to show how ridiculous this Governor portraying himself
- RNUG - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:56 am:
Too bad poll numbers ain’t governin’. If they were, this State would be in better shape.
- Juice - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 11:57 am:
Bentley only minus 4 and he was forced to resign?
- AlfondoGonz - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:02 pm:
I have spoken to multiple women who find the ad where he is pulling the strips off the camera lens to be incredibly creepy.
- Langhorne - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:10 pm:
If you are a voter who gets most of their info from tv ads, yes the ads work. They hit popular themes, and the governor is so sincere. Just dont look below the surface.
I bumped into a senior i didnt know, somehow we started on rauner. He immediately said, “rauner would sign a balanced budget, if madigan would just send him one”.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:23 pm:
==I have spoken to multiple women who find the ad where he is pulling the strips off the camera lens to be incredibly creepy.==
That’s interesting. Did they say why? Duct tape seems like kind of a non-controversial unisex product found and used in most homes.
- DuPage - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:25 pm:
“Rachel” is back! She was famous a few years ago as the voice of hundreds of millions of spam robot phone calls, “this is Rachel from credit card services”. Her voice was even featured on the nightly news about how powerless the FCC was to enforce the “do not call” list. They said she had become the most recognized voice in the country. The FCC wanted to talk to her to find out who had hired her, but were unable to find her. Rauner was able to find her and hire her. Now I am getting robot calls every day from her that start “this is Rachel with an important survey”. It basically wants to know if the election was held today, (Rauner v Pritzker, Rauner v Kennedy) how would you vote? Obviously a Rauner survey.
- AlfondoGonz - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:31 pm:
Responsa
I think it was the up-close shot of big grotesque smiling head.
- Pangloss - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:31 pm:
Rauner’s folksy bit reminds me of Lonesome Rhodes’ re-branding of Sen. Worthington Fuller in “A Face in the Crowd.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ez5cTYL4paA&t=1s
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:32 pm:
- Arsenal -
Concur on your points.
Rauner owning the airwaves, although cringe-worthy in the ancedotal way, the fact is, Rauner’s message is the sole message out there.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:32 pm:
OW watched the NCAA with 8 fellow Republicans who don’t like Rauner LOL
How popular would the Governor be if he raised taxes and did not reform anything like the Democrats want?
Can’t wait to see the ads that say reelect Democrats- We are against property tax reform, pension reform, workers comp reform, redistricting, term limits, and for huge tax income tax increases.
We also want the 17 billionaires in Illinois to pay their fair share
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:33 pm:
Just got my property tax assessment notice and it went up big time. Rauner and his tax freeze proposal are both going to be appealing, to the voters in the next election!
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 12:38 pm:
===OW watched the NCAA with 8 fellow Republicans who don’t like Rauner LOL===
No, I didn’t say that. Your blatent dishonesty continues.
I watched it with 8 adults. Voters. That’s all, nothing more.
===How popular would the Governor be if he raised taxes and did not reform anything like the Democrats want?===
The Rauner Tax is going to be signed by Rauner, because math IS math, and Revevue is required. Reforms are a want, and if Rauner wants his reforms, he needs to find 60 and 30. Something you know, continually and purposely ignore.
===Can’t wait to see the ads that say reelect Democrats- We are against property tax reform, pension reform, workers comp reform, redistricting, term limits, and for huge tax income tax increases===
No, Democrats are going to show boarded-up state universities, social service advocates explaining how Rauner failed the needy and hurting those who can’t help themselves. Keep up.
===We also want the 17 billionaires in Illinois to pay their fair share===
13 million people in Illinois, versus 17… Hmm… Democrats seem to see how math works(?)
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 3:00 pm:
OW how are you going to get 60 and 30 to get your Billionaire tax?
Even the Billionaire running admits it will be a heavy lift that was impossible with a supermajority democratic legislature and Governor.
More mindless positions by democrats designed to accomplish nothing other than class warfare
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 3:31 pm:
I watched WCIA news the other day with one politically agnostic dog. We saw six duct tape commercials and one highly embarrassing warehouse story with a “more at 10″ promise in 30 minutes. Anybody think those commercials worked? I personally find it sad as I admired Rauner 1.0 (pre-2013) a lot. Whatever version we’re up to now, I’m so far gone that JB Pritzker is my new favorite.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 4:09 pm:
===… how are you going to get 60 and 30 to get your Billionaire tax?===
That’s not my worry, I’m not a House Democrat, nor am I Speaker or a Democratic candidate for governor. No one is holding up a budget for the a billionaire tax. Good try thou.
===Even the Billionaire running admits it will be a heavy lift that was impossible with a supermajority democratic legislature and Governor.===
Again, it’s not preventing compromise or a budget. Your phony straw man road blocks keep forgetting the obvious.
===More mindless positions by democrats designed to accomplish nothing other than class warfare===
It actually, politically, allows the voters to remember Rauner has not shown any consideration for the people of Illinois, or anyone not wealthy.
The wearing of ties, given the people Rauner meets and if “these people” are “tie worthy” is a prime example why the “Billionaire Tax” and Rauner’s costumes are a narrative.
- A guy - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 4:25 pm:
==
Are Rauner’s new TV ads working?==
I think you can at least say they’re not “not working”.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 4:35 pm:
==More mindless positions by democrats designed to accomplish nothing other than class warfare==
As if “RTW Zones” was anything else. It’s only class warfare when the working man tries to get your boot off his neck.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 4:36 pm:
==I think you can at least say they’re not “not working”.==
A refreshing change from Rauner himself!
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 11, 17 @ 4:41 pm:
==I think you can at least say they’re not “not working”.==
I honestly wouldn’t even go this far, as they’ve been on the air for two weeks and all we have is one poll with funky methodology not being corroborated by any campaign’s actions.
But I do think Rauner has gotten a *little* bit of his swing back from a few weeks ago, when the Grand Bargain was falling apart and Mendoza was raiding his base with impunity. He’s still not where he needs to be, but it’s better.
- Generic Drone - Wednesday, Apr 12, 17 @ 8:59 am:
What’s next Rauner? “The rent is too damn high!” comercials?