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Madigan is the only argument Rauner has
Monday, Apr 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller * Tribune…
* JB Pritzker in a different Tribune article…
Oswego Willy’s favorite line in comments is “Governors own.” And that’s normally true, as Mooney says. But this isn’t a normal state. Speaker Madigan is phenomenally unpopular here. He is every Illinoisan’s favorite bogey man - across the political spectrum and in every demographic. For crying out loud, the most recent Paul Simon poll had Rauner out-polling Madigan in Chicago. So, all you gotta do is point the finger at Madigan and millions of Illinoisans don’t have to even think before they nod in agreement. It’s easy peasy. * But in the wake of his attempt to kill off the Senate’s grand bargain, Rauner became the bad guy, which is why he’s now attempting to pin the blame on Madigan for its failure and praising the Senate Democrats. And he did it again today in the Quad Cities…
This reset appears to be a tacit acknowledgement that he lost the spin war in the Senate, so the governor is now trying to bring the debate back to more favorable turf: Speaker Madigan. * Will it work? It certainly did during legislative campaigns last year, but it’s arguably tougher now that there are Democratic candidates zapping the governor from all sides. On the other hand, the administration has almost no legislative accomplishments they can point to. Rauner’s always talking about the stuff he has done on his own and uses that to show how he could even greater things if it wasn’t for that Madigan dude. “Blame Madigan!” is really the only thing they have in their arsenal right now. So Madigan is being painted as the “real” incumbent with Rauner as the good guy outsider tryin’ his gosh-durned best to change Illinois for the better.
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- Handle Bar Mustache - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 1:56 pm:
Cullerton could end Rauner’s games by putting it back on him and pointing out that Rauner has been the source of the impasse/gridlock.
- A guy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 1:56 pm:
Vince Lombardi creed: “Run the same play until they prove they can stop it”.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 1:57 pm:
===Cullerton could end Rauner’s games by putting it back on him===
LOL
Cullerton did that. Repeatedly. That hasn’t stopped Rauner. Never will, either. Read the post again.
- My New Handle - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:00 pm:
Of course governor’s own being the only person who can sign any legislation into law. If the legislature owns anything, it is the override of a veto. Madigan may be unpopular, but I would guess that most voters who believe Madigan is unpopular really don’t know why except for Rauner telling them that Madigan is THE problem. Absolutely no one prevents Rauner from introducing a balanced budget, not the Speaker, not J. Cullerton, no one but the Governor. That fact owns Rauner.
- Stir - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:08 pm:
I believe this is undeniable proof that OW’s true identity is Pritzker.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:08 pm:
===And that’s normally true, as Mooney says. But this isn’t a normal state.===
Yep.
Rauner himself proved that Governors own, and because of the vilification of Madigan being so “complete”, even Democrats are trying to first drag Rauner down in his own popularity before even attempting “Skyhook, in reverse”
By letting Rauner own the messaging on Madigan, and Madigan allowing an unanswered barrage at him, “Governors own” has been far more difficult than it ever should have been.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:09 pm:
===I believe this is undeniable proof that OW’s true identity is Pritzker.===
My friends call me “J. B.”, but whatevs…
- Bored Chairman - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:19 pm:
Glad Rauner is dropping his criticism of Cullerton and Radogno. The best thing that could help Rauner is if those two got a bill out of the Senate and it landed in the House. Madigan is trying to play for time, piling on the Governor for not getting anything done. If Madigan kills the deal - Rauner is off the hook and Madigan will lose a few more seats in 18. If he gets something through the House that the Senate can live with, Rauner will be the one on the hot seat.
- The Captain - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:25 pm:
I’m not sure I agree with this, I’m not sure that it had all that much effect on the legislative campaigns last year. The Republicans picked up seats but they mostly picked up seats they should have already had.
Forby - Rauner won his district by 31 and Trump won it by 41, Forby lost it by 10. Mike Madigan or no Mike Madigan, Forby probably loses this one no matter what.
Bradley - Rauner won his district by 32 and Trump won it by 43, Bradley lost it by 6. This is the one district you could maybe blame on Madigan’s unpopularity, the Republicans ran that ad of Bradley praising Madigan over and over and only beat him by 6, still this was the district with the strongest anti-Madigan commercials and yet Bradley didn’t lose by as much as Forby even though half of Forby’s voters are Bradley’s district.
Smiddy - lost by 25, lost by more than Quinn (14) and more than Clinton (6). If you lose by 25 resolving the Mike Madigan issue couldn’t have saved you.
Franks - this was a district where the only Democrat who could have held it was Franks, Rauner won it by 34. With Franks gone nothing could have saved it for the Democrats, even if Mike Madigan was the most popular official in the state they still wouldn’t have won here.
Mautino/Skoog - Mautino just barely held on to the district in 2014, his appointed replacement lost it by 2 in 2016. The Mautino news didn’t help here but maybe this one is on Madigan’s unpopularity, it was a presidential election year.
Cloonen - she won by a hair in 2012, she won by a hair in 2014, this time they put money behind the Republican effort and she lost by 7 in a district Rauner won by 22 and Trump won by 13.
Sullivan - the Democrats didn’t even run a candidate.
In most of these Republican pickup district the candidate said to be aligned with Madigan, the General Assembly candidate, ran well ahead of both Quinn and Clinton which is a rather odd result if Madigan is so unpopular that he’s the anchor on the Democratic party.
- Winnin' - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:26 pm:
When you think about it, what kind of governor blamed others for his failings?
One who lacks leadership skills.
Governor Inept.
- Team Warwick - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:36 pm:
Im voting for Monty Python and the galloping state budget.
At least then it would be funny.
- Oneman - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:36 pm:
A guy, an idea to quickly forgotten in football and in politics….
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:39 pm:
TC, all those seats were successfully defended many times in the past. In addition, the Democrats didn’t pick up a single suburban seat, despite overwhelming wins in those GOP districts for Clinton and Duckworth at the top of the ticket. This should’ve been their year. Instead, it went the other way. Make all the excuses you want.
- The Captain - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:48 pm:
In 2014 Bradley didn’t even have an opponent. Also, the Democrats held on to some pretty affluent suburban areas. Yingling was challenged heavily and turned out just fine, Conroy’s DuPage district was never even really contested, Tom Cullerton’s DuPage district worked out just fine. They couldn’t pick up the seat Sandack vacated and they got blown out of the water on McAuliffe’s seat so it’s kind of a mixed bag.
On the flip side the Republicans came up massively short in other areas downstate. They spent heavily in the Metro East and still couldn’t beat Beiser and couldn’t save Kay and the didn’t even come close to Phelps, although they didn’t seem to be trying that hard against Phelps.
I’d put much more stock in just having all that Rauner money than the overall effectiveness of blame Madigan 3.0.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 2:50 pm:
=== Yingling was challenged heavily and turned out just fine, Conroy’s DuPage district was never even really contested, Tom Cullerton’s DuPage district worked out just fine===
Yingling and Cullerton both underperformed in a Democratic landslide year.
Seriously, take a nap.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:06 pm:
The Captain is spot on. And don’t forget Mendoza beating Munger for Comptroller. And the IL GOP performance in the suburbs was pretty poor imo.
The state GOP did best downstate, and downstate broke hard for Trump. Trump beat Madigan, not Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
===The state GOP did best downstate, and downstate broke hard for Trump. Trump beat Madigan, not Rauner.===
Please explain Coonen and Skoog…
“No, I’ll wait, thanks”
With respect.
- Yeah - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:13 pm:
Downstate reps hate Madigan. When they find he has not presented a balanced budget for 3 years Rauner is not liked. When the Barnes furniture store lease is explained Rauner is hated just as much as Madigan. Spent the weekend with a bunch of R’s and they don’t think much of those adverts about Rauner balance budget plan which does not exist.
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:13 pm:
Downstate reps hate Madigan. When they find he has not presented a balanced budget for 3 years Rauner is not liked. When the Barnes furniture store lease is explained Rauner is hated just as much as Madigan. Spent the weekend with a bunch of R’s and they don’t think much of those adverts about Rauner balance budget plan which does not exist.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:15 pm:
===Spent the weekend with a bunch of R’s and they===
Meh. That’s not data.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:17 pm:
===And the IL GOP performance in the suburbs was pretty poor imo.====
Why would you say that? They didn’t lose a single seat in a wave election.
Also, Mendoza drastically underperformed the top of the ticket. She was the only statewide candidate tied to Madigan.
- Annonin' - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:19 pm:
DopeyDuct Accomplishments
Capt Fax have you forgotten the Dept of Corrections early release. You are not givn’ that enough attention. And then there is the only 2015 approp bill he did not veto — K-12 approp. There are tw. Is that enough?
- Hottot - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:22 pm:
Why doesn’t Governor Rauner craft a compromise budget that includes the revenue the Democrats want as well as the reforms he wants and submits it to the
general assembly for consideration? It would be putting the ball back in Madigan’s court and would force Madigan to go on the defensive. I honestly think this whole entire mess just highlights how much of a political novice Rauner really is.
- Arsenal - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:23 pm:
==On the other hand, the administration has almost no legislative accomplishments they can point to. ==
Frankly, this points to Rauner’s weakness; he’s not running the Madigan play because it’s a proven winner. He’s running it because it’s all he has.
And as far as that goes, I mean, there’s worse plays to be stuck with. But still, it’s not a decision made from a position of strength.
Anyway- I don’t think any of us know how a $100 million campaign blaming all your problems on one guy who’s not your opponent will go. We’ve just never seen that before. But I think there’s a “when you’re explaining, you’re losing” problem, and I think it’s going to be easier than Rauner thinks for the Democratic candidate to create some daylight between himself and Madigan.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:31 pm:
===Why doesn’t Governor Rauner craft a compromise budget that includes the revenue the Democrats want as well as the reforms he wants and submits it to the
general assembly for consideration?===
Then Rauner will officially own the Rauner Tax and the Rauner Cuts… wholly.
That’s why it hasn’t happened. That’s why it won’t happen.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:33 pm:
==wave election==
For whom? Republican in the WH, Republicans in charge of both houses of Congress. Republicans pick up seats in both chambers of ILGA.
Kinda seems like a Republican year to me. Call me crazy.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:40 pm:
===Republicans pick up seats in both chambers of ILGA.===
I think you’re ignoring Clinton and Duckworth winning by huge margins, and the millions spent by Munger to reduce an inept Mendoza Crew’s win to 4 points, and the $40+ million Rauner spent to keep the “status quo”…
… that… and the ILGOP press release all but conceding a Democratic wave in Illinois.
Had the ILGOP kept silent, we never would’ve known they thought they were beat.
Maybe the most surprised by ILGA wins were Rauner and the Raunerites.
That kinda takes the wind out of the sails on expectations, even after the polls closed.
It was Madigan and the $40+ million that staved off real problems, and Trump and that wave in the I-80 corridor that was really allowed to excel because of Rauner’s millions.
If Rauner doesn’t hold serve with his monies and “Madigan”, who knows, it coulda been a wash(?)
- Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:51 pm:
I don’t know how y’all think there was a Democratic wave. Duckworth and Clinton alone do not constitute a wave.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:54 pm:
===Duckworth and Clinton alone do not constitute a wave===
Look around the suburbs. Democrats who weren’t connected to MJM by the GOP did very well. Brad Schneider, for instance. He won by a point in 2012, but won by 5 points last year.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:55 pm:
===Duckworth and Clinton alone do not constitute a wave.===
Explain the huge drop off from Clinton and Duckworth to Mendoza…
What could’ve brought about such a tremendous drop?
- Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 3:56 pm:
You can’t say an election is a wave election - or not - until after the event. You can think it might be a wave going in, but that’s a prediction that could be right or wrong. This was clearly not a wave election. Mendoza underperformed relative to the top of the ticket. Several legislators underperformed compared to the top of the ticket (though admittedly some did overperform as well). The best way to analyze an election is through the prism of results *after* the election. Those results say this was not a wave election, not locally, not statewide, not nationally.
It was a R year. Republicans now control as many legislative chambers as they have since the Civil War. They hold the most legislative seats following the 2016 election than they have ever held in all of US history. There’s a Republican in the White House. Republicans control Congress.
This really isn’t difficult. There was no wave.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:00 pm:
Rich- you know as well as anyone that results vary by district. If there were a wave, you would expect to see all boats rising by about the same level across the board. That didn’t happen. There are places where Dems overperformed (southern Illinois), places where they underperformed (Mendoza, suburbs). I don’t have access to top of the ticket performance by legislative or Congressional district, but I’d bet dollars to donuts that Schneider underperformed both Clinton and Duckworth in that district.
- filmmaker prof - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:01 pm:
Hey OW … I mean JB, can I borrow a few dollars?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:06 pm:
- filmmaker prof -
You need to ask in a less public way!
Lemme guess, stacks of unmarked, non-sequential $20s?
I’ll let you know… Fair?
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:10 pm:
I wish Madigan would fight back. U.S. Congress’ approval ratings have been in the toilet, but Republicans strut around like they own the place. They fight, and they win.
Madigan can use projection, taking Rauner’s talking points and using them against him, like “status quo.” Madigan can say that because of Rauner, the state has never been worse off. He can say that under Quinn, the fiscal condition was improving. Madigan can even say that Illinois has a long-term fiscal crisis because he was too favorable to the super-rich like Rauner and didn’t tax them enough all those years. He can point out Rauner’s hypocrisy in making millions from public employee pensions and profiting from the system he (Rauner) hates.
I know this is me talking and not Madigan but dude, get some Republican in you and fight back. I’m sorry, but I’m upset at the lack of fight. Try to make lemonade put of your lemons.
- A guy - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:23 pm:
Rich, you may have to try this again. There is some denial stage grief still hanging on. Wow.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:24 pm:
===There is some denial stage grief still hanging on===
They’re never wrong and it’s always somebody else’s fault. Sound familiar?
- Arsenal - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:27 pm:
==Explain the huge drop off from Clinton and Duckworth to Mendoza…==
Trump didn’t contest the state and Kirk, somehow, found a way to do something even worse than not contesting the state.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:29 pm:
OK, you geniuses. If Madigan isn’t a problem, then why are none of the Democratic candidates embracing him?
Talk about gaslighters.
- Arsenal - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 4:36 pm:
==If Madigan isn’t a problem, then why are none of the Democratic candidates embracing him?==
Halitosis.
- LibertyvilleNick - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 5:29 pm:
Party politics almost doesn’t work in this state. Madigan either likes you or he doesn’t. He put two governors in jail and he made Quinn look like a stooge. It doesn’t matter who is governor.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 5:30 pm:
===He put two governors in jail and he made Quinn look like a stooge===
This may come as a surprise to you, but those three did that to themselves.
- LibertyvilleNick - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 5:36 pm:
You are correct sir
- Lech w - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 5:44 pm:
Saying madigan is the only argument is like saying the only reason we are opposing North Korea is the nukes. It might be simple and we might use it all the time. Nonetheless it is a very effective argument.
- Will it work - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 5:48 pm:
It probably will work, since Illinois Democrats haven’t realized just what a gift he gave them when he sabotaged the Senate deal. A true compromise was forged between parties, with Madigan on the sidelines, and the governor comes in at the last second and ruins it. That’s on him, all him. We would have a budget deal right now if it wasn’t for the governor and the governor alone. I wish somebody would respond to that effect every single time the word “Madigan” comes out of his mouth.
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 6:03 pm:
What about Neil Braun? I hear he’s a problem.
- Ratso Rizzo - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 6:04 pm:
Pretty much the entire state is anti-Madigan. No argument here. But Rauner is not an unknown now like he was against Quinn. Everyone knows what he’s all about, and the jig is up. Madigan might be the most disliked politician in the state, but Rauner is a close second—and only one is running for governor next year.
- @misterjayem - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 6:33 pm:
One can simultaneously believe:
1) Bruce Rauner is primarily responsible for the Illinois budget impasse and the political chaos & destruction of the last two years, and
2) Michael Madigan is ballot box poison for Democratic candidates.
– MrJM
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 6:53 pm:
This should really come from Joe Bidenopolous but really Rauner’s campaign is nothing more than a noun, a verb and Mike Madigan.
- Lucky Pierre - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 8:51 pm:
One can also simultaneously believe that only the Governor’s negotiating “partners” have said there would not be a budget for four years.
One can also simultaneously believe the GA is content to truly do nothing this session.
Zero bills passed so far for the Governors signature
- Sonny chiss - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 9:21 pm:
Lol, the governor’s negotiating partners have said it but meanwhile the governor Sabotages the deal all while publicly saying he wants a deal but doing to make a deal happen.
- Sonny chiss - Monday, Apr 17, 17 @ 9:21 pm:
But doing nothing
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Apr 18, 17 @ 7:02 am:
LP,
There’s something admirable about the way you just keep swinging away — never give up! — but next time I suggest that you find your way into the ball park first.
– MrJM
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Apr 18, 17 @ 7:39 am:
==Zero bills passed so far for the Governors signature==
Why do you say things that are so easily proven to be untrue?
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Apr 18, 17 @ 9:07 am:
how about this ballpark
WCIA reported last week that the General Assembly, under the leadership of Mike Madigan, has “literally produced no significant bills” in 4 months.
- Skeptic - Tuesday, Apr 18, 17 @ 9:27 am:
“literally produced no significant bills” in 4 months.” Maybe I’m being over-simplistic, but bills tend to have costs to them, and how do you pay for it with a, wait for it…wait for it, budget?
- Chucktownian - Tuesday, Apr 18, 17 @ 9:56 am:
Rauner goes down hard in a wave the other way in 2018. He’s the reason we have the budget impasse. No big Madigan fan but he’s at least produced budgets. The governor vetoed them and governors own vetoes. I can’t imagine how the 2018 election is even close and the Dems will gain seats too. Rauner spent $10M per seat gained last year but lost the big race so he’s in big trouble in an election in which he will be the target for everyone.