* Press release…
In a Garin-Hart-Yang survey conducted June 26- 29, Chris Kennedy maintained a strong lead over billionaire J.B. Pritzker, despite Pritzker spending over $8 million on a television and direct mail blitz, nearly 10 months out from the Democratic primary. Kennedy led Pritzker 44% to 38% in the trial heat. Among voters that knew both candidates, Kennedy held a larger lead 49% to 37% in the trial heat, suggesting that Kennedy has room to grow as more voters hear his message.
“Democratic primary voters want radical change in Springfield, and they aren’t falling in love with Pritzker’s big wallet,” Brendan O’Sullivan campaign manager said. “Big money talks, it doesn’t listen, and voters are tired of billionaires in both parties trying to buy their votes. It’s why Chris has maintained a strong lead even in the face of record spending against him. Voters are respond to Chris’ message of being independent of the party machine, fighting for real reforms to make Springfield work for Illinois families, and restoring the promise of the American Dream for everyone in the state.”
OK, but Kurt Summers’ poll taken in early March had Kennedy at the very same 44 percent. Pritzker was polling at just 11 percent, so he’s more than tripled his support since then. It’s cost him a pretty penny to do that, but money is apparently no object. And keep in mind that Pritzker has not run any ads against Kennedy, which could be coming.
* And we’ll see what Kennedy’s quarterly fundraising reports show. Sen. Daniel Biss may be hard to top…
We have a first look at gubernatorial candidate Daniel Biss’ second quarter numbers; the Democrat says he’s preparing to report more than $1 million raised between April and June. The Biss campaign believes that will place him right up with Chris Kennedy (perhaps even surpassing Kennedy?) for second-quarter fundraising.
Breaking it down: Biss’ camp is basing this on the large-dollar contributions they’ve received. Biss’ campaign says so far he’s in the lead with an expected $560,000 raised. The largest donation, according to Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, is $100,000 from the Senate Democratic Victory Fund. A statement from the group said Biss had donated that amount to the fund last November and that it is not endorsing.
Kennedy, as of Sunday, had roughly $400,000 in large-dollar contributions and Pawar had $79,000. Of course, billionaire J.B. Pritzker far outpaces the Democratic field because he is self-funding. He has given $14 million to his own campaign thus far.
Totals: “Biss now sits with over $2.3 million cash on hand,” a release from his campaign states. “The second quarter haul came from more than 2,700 donors representing over 230 cities and towns across Illinois. Two-thirds of Biss’s Q2 donations were for under $100, and 95% of them came from in-state.” Full second-quarter filings are due July 17.
*** UPDATE 1 *** On background, I’m told by the Kennedy folks that the poll “is not good for JB.” Pritzker, they say, has a “low ceiling” and “explosive negatives. The electorate, they claim, “wants to go with Kennedy by every measure.”
They’re having a press briefing at 1:30, so we’ll know more then.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Pritzker campaign…
“It’s exciting to see Chris Kennedy’s own internal polling numbers confirming the surging support and enthusiasm that JB has been feeling around the state,” said Pritzker campaign manager Anne Caprara. “A 27-point polling jump in three months would be exciting for any campaign, but it’s particularly encouraging given the strong recognition of the Kennedy name. JB is proud to be growing his support with Illinois’ working families and grateful to Chris Kennedy for letting people know.”
- Almost The Weekend - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:43 am:
If Biss out raises Kennedy a change has to be made. Especially if this poll is accurate. He’s in the lead and not raising a dime? Doesn’t make sense, especially with that last name which has given him such a large head start.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:45 am:
2 person poll or full field?
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:46 am:
===and voters are tired of billionaires in both parties trying to buy their votes.===
Since when? See Illinois 2014, USA 2016.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:48 am:
I hope the democrat party doesn’t ruin 2018 by forcing a nomination of Pritzker. He is too aligned with Madigan to get elected in 2018. Kennedy would be the better choice. He is leading in polls on name recognition alone.
- Lance Mannion - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:49 am:
Are all these cats in favor of the tax increase? Good luck.
- JoeMaddon - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:50 am:
Wait… did Kennedy do a poll of just Kennedy and Pritzker? No other candidates?! What is the point of that?
And Biss’s fundraising numbers. Very impressive. And, based on A1’s, it looks like he could outraise Kennedy and Pawar, maybe combined.
- MissingG - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:50 am:
Same question as Fax Machine. If this is Kennedy/Pritzker/Undecided then I’m not too surprised. If it’s the full field, then Biss has more work to do than I had thought.
- Shytown - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:51 am:
That’s nice spin from the Kennedy camp, but the fact that Pritzker is now nipping at their heels is not good news for them and demonstrates that his paid media strategy is actually working.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:54 am:
===Are all these cats in favor of the tax increase? Good luck.===
Rauner has yet, in 3 fiscal years, signed a full year budget as governor.
Good luck.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:58 am:
==Are all these cats in favor of the tax increase?==
Ain’t none of ‘em gonna have to say so anymore.
To the post…
Good for Kennedy for keeping the lead, but 6 points with this much time to go is a slim reed to lead on. As you would expect with what he’s spent so far, the trajectory bodes well for Pritzker.
But, whither the other candidates?
- Amalia - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:01 am:
Garrin-Hart-Yang are usually very good at polling. Assuming they are correct, they also have information on who supports Kennedy and why. that will point to how to shore up that base and provide room for a small amount of growth. that may be all it takes in this primary. but take care not to hitch your wagon to Bernie related imagery as the grand jury is in progress re Jane Sanders in Vermont. You can relate to the work, but not the man/woman.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:01 am:
When Adlai III first decided to run for office, he asked Richard J. for advice.
“Don’t change your name” was the reply.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:04 am:
To the Post,
Kemnedy’s growth is stagnant for 3+ months, but Kennedy is still at 44%. Kennedy leads. Numbers are numbers.
Pritzker, starting 3+ months ago at 11% and moves his own numbers, even with negative press and being on TV discussing his own negatives, has more than tripled his own support, aided by a significant financial backstop that will continue to help the numbers grow.
Kennedy has 3 big problems right now…
1) A possible poor showing financially
2) Pritzker continuing to grow and push his message and name ID
3) A lacking of his own growth in 3+ months while actively campaigning.
Biss, within his own sweet spot and finding a stride and base within that… and the $2.3 million on hand growing, Biss is building and building and “working within who he is”… that might eat some undecideds.
Again…
“Who is Kennedy’s base?”
- JackD - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:05 am:
Has anyone seen any polling for Biss?
- BattleAxe - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:08 am:
Kennedy is talking about a midsummer poll rather than this fundraising numbers? That’s not a good sign.
- Jibba - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:09 am:
The only thing Kennedy has is his name. The only thing Pritzker has is his money. And I’m supposed to get excited about either why?
Retail politics will settle this over the coming months. Let’s not have a coronation today.
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:10 am:
===Are all these cats in favor of the tax increase? Good luck.===
http://wgntv.com/2015/07/08/rauner-give-me-reform-ill-sign-a-tax-hike-for-illinois/
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:13 am:
==Kennedy has 3 big problems right now…==
I think there’s a fourth, very important one- a poor organization that will fail to vote his pluses.
Of course, it’s early. But Pritzker is actively building a professional field organization, and Biss is pursuing an interesting kinda-decentralized one. Without unions (going with Pritzker) the Resistance crowd (going with Biss) or the Cook County Dems (who Kennedy intentionally alienated) who’s going to go knock on doors for him?
It’s early until it’s late.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:14 am:
To the update.. As I said before Prizker has too many negatives and is too closely aligned with Madigan to win. And I like the guy. Its just the political atmosphere in 2018 will not be good for him.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:17 am:
44% of the Dem primary is a pretty good base
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:18 am:
===I think there’s a fourth, very important one- a poor organization that will fail to vote his pluses.===
Concur. Didn’t mean to dismiss it.
I left it at “3″ because you have to crawl before walking, walk before running.
It would help if Kennedy’s Crew was “better, more seasoned, a building organization”, but I guess I see the stagnant numbers, with campaigning, a possible poor monetary report, and Pritzker gaining, “pluses” seem 5,000 miles away.
You’re not wrong, Bud. Nope.
- Periwinkle - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:22 am:
Talk to the grassroots. Kennedy’s campaign is a mess. Canceled meetings, confused staff, mixed messaging. Meanwhile, everyone who meets Biss likes him, and he is meeting everyone he can.
2017 is not 2014 or even 2016 - many people are sick of unqualified businessmen who think they can leapfrog to the top. Biss’s message resonates and unlike Pawar, he has the experience and fundraising chops to back it up.
At this early stage name recognition is bound to give Kennedy a big lift, but I wouldn’t count on it sticking if he keeps running a bad campaign.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:23 am:
===44% of the Dem primary is a pretty good base===
Yep. Even said Kennedy still leads…
Who and where are they, and how will Kennedy build an apparatus to vote these 44%?
Organization is Kennedy’s next step (3+ months ago actually) to offset the 3 big problems I see.
Kennedy leads. Easily right now. But it’s been stagnant, maybe cash starved, and Pritzker is just around the bend…
- DeseDemDose - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:27 am:
Kennedy has money, Pritzker has money, R auner has money…blah..blah…blah…
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:28 am:
If Pritzker is nominated, Rauner is 50/50 re-election because he is the only candidate with Really really oh my God bad negatives.
Kennedy or Biss put Rauner at heavy disadvantage.
Pritzker’s only advantage is money and that won’t matter in the General because unions will drop 9 figures on a non-Pritzker nominee. Obviously that means no money for the GA, which is a selling point because if you care about the state you want the Dems to lose 10 seats so Madigan can retire.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:28 am:
Periwinkle
……
Biss voted for the tax hike. Rauner will hamer that through all media. People won’t vote for him due to his tax hike vote. Kennedy is the better option.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:30 am:
==Talk to the grassroots. Kennedy’s campaign is a mess. Canceled meetings, confused staff, mixed messaging.==
This is what I keep seeing/hearing, too.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:32 am:
==Biss voted for the tax hike. Rauner will hamer that through all media.==
Every Dem is going to be called a tax-hiker. At least Biss (and Pritzker, and Pawar) is (are) committed to a progressive tax structure.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:37 am:
Who is Kennedy’s base?
The majority of Illinois democrats who oppose the Speaker and want real reform in Illinois
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:39 am:
===The majority of Illinois democrats who oppose the Speaker and want real reform in Illinois===
When in math did 44% gain “majority” staus in that discipline?
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:40 am:
==The majority of Illinois democrats who oppose the Speaker and want real reform in Illinois==
Gonna have to show me where Kennedy’s fighting Madigan. Joe Berrios? Sure, he’s punching down, no problem. But so far Biss is the only guy who ever gets explicitly anti-Madigan, and even he tempers it.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:45 am:
Another way to frame the “Who is Kennedy’s base?” question is “Who is going to carry lit for him?”
We know who that’s going to be for Pritzker (unions) and Biss (the Resistance crowd). We have some conjecture (African Americans?) and non-answers (”everyone else”) about Kennedy, but there’s no evidence that he’s especially courting those groups, or that they’re responding particularly well if he is.
- Come on Man! - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:47 am:
If Kennedy spent 8 million dollars to zero and didn’t over take JB the readers would be calling for CK to drop.
The number that is not mentioned here that matters is what the total name ID is of both candidates. I would infer that with roughly two months of ads on broadcast and almost not clutter, JB has to be hovering in the upper 60’s/low 70’s. That said I would assume “Chris Kennedy” does not have the same name ID as his dad or uncle but still from that sits in the 60’s because people know the name is golden. That is why the movement down for JB is worrying and why the movement up is good for CK. With CK having a 12 net swing in that “horse race” shows that with in JBs numbers he has a lower net positive favorable rating than CK.
Until you see the total Name ID numbers on this it is hard to make any drastic conclusions.
- A guy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:50 am:
Kennedy’s base like him. Enough to be very forgiving with missteps. i.e. they’re with him. So at the moment, his support is pretty wide and pretty thick. JB is going to have to prevent him from getting to 50 or all the money he’s already spent will be for naught.
Watch for it. If JB doesn’t start going after him, he might as well endorse him.
- Anon0091 - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 11:54 am:
Why the Kennedy crowd is touting a poll showing their chief rival gaining 30 points is beyond me. But the idea that Kennedy will automatically hold that 44 once the race gets rolling with real people is beyond me. He’s a terrible terrible candidate that’s punching way below his weight class.
Biss has done a very good job raising money, but if 84% is accounted for, he’s got to be in high single digits which is a lot of ground to make up. His cash on hand will fund 2-3 weeks of heavy media. Still don’t see a path for him.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:01 pm:
What’s JB going to go after Kennedy for? He doesn’t enjoy the flavor of Madigan’s backside as much as JB does?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:03 pm:
Frankly the poll is good news for JB. Kennedy’s name is the byproduct of decades of warm affection for John and Robert. What I find interesting is how far behind Biss is in the poll. Daniel looks like a youger version of a very lovesble and kind Herman Munster. He also is pretty good at juggling.
- Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:05 pm:
==Has anyone seen any polling for Biss?==
He hasn’t spent much yet, so polling wouldn’t be relevant. You don’t move the polls by how much you raise, but rather by how much you spend.
I don’t doubt the Pritzker negatives. Biss really should start spending soon to become a viable alternative.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:05 pm:
===The majority of Illinois democrats who oppose the Speaker and want real reform in Illinois===
When in math did 44% gain “majority” staus in that discipline?
“Polling shows Madigan’s approval rating is barely a blip on the radar. Only 4.4 percent of Illinoisans “strongly approve” of the job he’s doing (with an overall approval rate of 26.2 percent), according to an October 2016 poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.”
Your numbers are way off OW even though you are part of the 4.4%
26% approval in deep blue Illinois means a majority of Democrats do not support the Speaker.
After the barrage of ads that will run that number will not improve
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-michael-madigan-illinois-government-perspec-0110-jm-20170109-story.html
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:07 pm:
===26% approval in deep blue Illinois means a majority of Democrats do not support the Speaker.===
“35% approval in deep blue Illinois means a majority of voters do not support the Gov. Rauner.”
58% disapproval for Rauner too in… “.., deep blue Illinois… ”
You crack me up.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:18 pm:
===What I find interesting is how far behind Biss is in the poll.===
Do we know yet if this poll was Kennedy vs. Pritzker or the full field? Agree that polling is too early to be really meaningful, but curious nonetheless.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:18 pm:
Kennedy’s base is traditional Democrats who understand what it means when a Kennedy runs for office and like it (i.e., mainstream left). When J.B. “Obama or Gingrich/Romney…hmm, that’s a tough one” Pritker runs, he’s going to have to convince Dem voters - including union members who aren’t robots to their leaders - that he’s both a true Democrat AND superior to Kennedy. And he’s going to have to make the case that he’s better positioned to win the race statewide than Kennedy, which is tricky because his only argument really is “I’m even more filthy rich than he is!” (unless JB has significantly more downstate appeal than Kennedy does).
And I do think that ambivalence on Obama is going to come back to hurt JB with African-Americans. And to the extent there’s a “motivated by Trump” bump in turnout, I don’t see him getting the lions share.
This campaign will be a good test of the power of money.
- Rocky Rosi - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:25 pm:
JB is a good guy but a bad politician in training. He should run for county board or something on that level.
- Atsuishin - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:30 pm:
Kennedy actually makes sense on property taxes I can at least respect him on that.
- Concerned Dem - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:44 pm:
Kennedy, Biss have the JBT problem from 2006. Rauner will overwhelm them with way more resources than they will hope to raise and each have enough in their backgrounds to give Rauner’s team what they need to demonize them. Lets not pretend that all their “against Speaker Madigan” tough talk now is going to neutralize their clear and exploitable connections to Madigan (Contributions to Biss’ PAC, video of Kennedy & Madigan at last year’s DNC avoiding the press). Also its never a winning strategy to try to do battle with members of your own party at the same time as trying to take on your extremely well funded GOP incumbent. Pritzker is at least going through the ringer now and has the time and resources to recover.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:56 pm:
Don’t discount the fact that a tall lean Rauner just looks better than fat Pritzker
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 12:59 pm:
@Concerned Dem
Yet there are many potential dem voters that wont vote for a dem voter that they believe is a Madigan crony. I think Kennedy will do better against Rauner despite Rauners money.
- Ahoy! - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 1:16 pm:
Every Democrat I know is getting hit with daily mailers from JB and are noticing his advertisements. When they ask me what I think and I share my concerns about him being Madigan’s candidate, they usually have zero support all while not realizing that Kennedy is running.
I realize this is a small sample size, but it seems like Kennedy could own this thing quickly if he gets out in front. JB just has a tremendous amount of negatives (Blago & Madigan).
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 1:50 pm:
==all while not realizing that Kennedy is running==
Yeah…that’s not ideal.
- Wizzard of Ozzie - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:08 pm:
Rich,
Just quick point. The Summers poll was released with the narrative that he was considering running. Many asked why would you put out a poll that bad? He then endorsed JB a week later. I’m fairly certain that he knew he was endorsing JB before the poll, and they released it because it had JB’s numbers artificially low. The proper point of comparison is Kennedy’s own poll against JB. Which showed gain by both.
- DownstateKid - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:23 pm:
As a Rauner supporter, Pritzker is my top choice. Good luck motivating the base with a billionaire with inherited his entire net worth.
- Lakefront Liberal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:42 pm:
Kennedy already lost. If you remember the 2010 us senate race Alexi won with 38.9% of the vote in a crowded primary. JB is right where he needs to be to win. It is not the end all be all, but having institutional party support (local parties, union and party bosses) is still an advantage. JB has it. JB will also be able to put up 1000 more tv points in all ten tv media markets then Kennedy cutting into CK’s downstate base. JB will be able to run robust and highly targeted field, mail and digital program. Kennedy is starved for cash, he won’t be able to keep up with the arms race.
Biss will also come in strong and steal lots of votes from Kennedy in his base areas of northern cook county and lake county while JB locks in the African American and Latinx bases. He will be the only one who can afford to do AA and Latinx radio and field work. JB will be the only one with signs up in South East Chicago.
My prediction is Kennedy gets third place behind Biss who potential gets throw on the ticket as lt. gov to give JB goo goo and liberal cover fire.
Kennedy is all show and no go.
- Anon0091 - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:51 pm:
Downstate Kid,
Ummm, he didn’t.
- Concerned Dem - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:55 pm:
@Real
The Madigan Crony label will get pasted whoever is the Dem nominee. Because of the self funding ability I think Pritzker can make a better case that he isn’t / won’t be a Madigan mushroom. Pritzker has been relatively quiet about Madigan, which might make his making the case for being independent of Madigan more believable when he makes it than any of the other candidates that will be going hat in hand for resources tied to Madigan while yipping about not liking him. The best gift Madigan could give the Dem nominee next march is the announcement that if the Dem candidate wins for Gov, he’ll retire… then it becomes a two for one.
- Lady Lefty - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 4:39 pm:
Have we not learned anything from polling from the 2016 election? Why don’t you look at who’s supporting the candidates on the ground game. May give you a better idea of what’s really going on.
- Chipolcon - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 6:21 pm:
Hey You Guys,
Do the math here. if Kennedy is at 44% and JB is at 38% that is a combined 82% of the electorate. Lets assume all the other candidates have a combined 10% (which is likely a low ball figure for 4 candidates, 2 of whom hold elected office). only about 8% of the electorate is in play in this scenario. for JB to win he has to win all the remain vote, which is almost impossible. This means JB must go negative on Kennedy in a multi candidate race and hope it doesn’t do his own candidacy any harm. JB is not going to be able to “positive” his way to victory in the Dem Primary. JB will be left with a lot of bad options and this is assuming Kennedy doesn’t raise significant cash for his own communications. Kennedy is in a commanding position and Team JB knows it.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 6:30 pm:
=== only about 8% of the electorate is in play in this scenario===
C’mon. It’s July. The primary is in March. Support for all candidates is mostly super soft right now.
- Periwinkle - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 8:11 pm:
If the Chicagoist is to be believed, this was just a 2-person poll, so assumptions above about Biss & Pawar polling in single digits are out the window.
Given the fundraising results it might be time to consider whether Pawar would better serve his progressive goals, which seem sincere, by dropping out and campaigning for Biss.
http://chicagoist.com/2017/07/11/poll_shows_gap_between_kennedy_prit.php
JB Pritzker: $14,141,369.59 (including $14 million in contributions since March 31st)
Daniel Biss: $2,384,583.57 (including $792,502.50 in contributions since March 31st)
Chris Kennedy: $1,349,762.53 (including $442,334.92 in contributions since March 31st)
Scott Drury: $331,182.73 (including $46,200.00 in contributions since March 31st)
Ameya Pawar: $325,178.05 (including $78,975.00 in contributions since March 31st)
Bob Daiber: $50,030.17 (including $12,500.00 in contributions since March 31st)