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What’s the holdup on SB 1?
Tuesday, Jul 25, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller * ILGOP…
* Or perhaps Cullerton was just remembering history. From February…
Since then, there’s been no pension reform agreement, but the Democrats want the CPS pension language to remain in SB 1 anyway and they know the topic makes the governor react in an emotional way. So, Cullerton, whose chamber passed a pension reform bill that never made it out of the House, held the bill. Cullerton is taking heat from Rauner for being Madigan’s pawn, but it looks to me like he’s playing a two-track game: Prevent the governor from vetoing the bill while hoping Madigan will finally budge on pension reform and then everyone can “win.” * They need a negotiated agreement, but that doesn’t seem likely in the near term for a few reasons: 1) The governor appears to want to avenge the overrides of his budget vetoes by locking up Republicans with big promises of more money for their schools at the expense of Chicago. An override on this particular bill looks all but impossible in the House. Madigan, fresh off Rauner’s budgetary defeat, probably doesn’t want to “lose” this round. So, everybody will stand their ground for a while. How long people are willing to hold out is the big question right now. 2) The governor flatly refuses to negotiate until the Senate sends him the bill. But even if Rauner did agree to leaders’ meetings, I’m not sure that Speaker Madigan would want to be in the same room with the governor’s new chief of staff, who has made a career out of bashing the man. 3) Speaker Madigan has shown absolutely zero interest in passing any bills that are opposed by organized labor, and public employee unions definitely do not love Cullerton’s pension reform plan. So, getting Madigan off the dime on pension reform doesn’t look likely in the near term. In a perfect world, Madigan would either tell the unions that the bill is probably unconstitutional anyway, so just suck it up and deal with it; or tell CPS to wait until the Democrats elect a governor and then they’ll get their pension money from the state, just like every other school district. But this isn’t a perfect world. Far from it. Any others?
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- A Jack - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:09 am:
I think the bill will likely be held to about August 10, so parents can get “emotional” on Republican day after Rauner AV’s it.
If there aren’t votes to override by then, the bill will die and the “education” governor will look very foolish.
- winners and losers - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:14 am:
It appears someone will lose.
And in this environment no one wants to be called the clear LOSER.
- Rosey - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:23 am:
GOP, please just STOP playing the victim. Finally stop.
Do something. Do anything.
Just quit your whining and blame game. We are adults, it is not very becoming to have zero accomplishments other than blaming the DEMs.
You were elected to achieve results. Why would anybody vote for you again? We can’t stand 4 more years of “Madigan is bad, he won’t let us do anything, woe is me”.
- Juvenal - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:23 am:
Great post Rich.
The solution is pretty simple, and it also underscores what a loss Mike Z and Radogno were.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russia agreed to remove its nukes provided the US withdrew its arms from turkey. But there was a catch: the US didn’t want to be perceived as giving in to Russian demands, so the US delayed its announcement six months and both sides pretended the two events were unrelated.
The same could easily be worked out here.
But it won’t be, because there are no grown ups on the GOP side of the negotiating table that can be trusted to make the deal, nor wise enough to accept the victory, nor humble enough to sacrifice the victory dance.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:23 am:
So Rauner didn’t use any of his gubernatorial powers or political capital to win the tax increase override vote, but he’s going to risk Downstate schools not opening over a couple hundred million?
He’s doing a bit, playing the “Chicago bad” for a while to distract from his tax increase complicity.
Rauner bluffed about not signing a school funding bill in 2015. I think he’s doing so again.
What’s the upside to his position? If he plays it through, Chicago schools will open, suburban schools will open, but Downstate schools will be in crisis.
Rauner had much better cards to play to stop the tax increase — but he chose not to play them.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:26 am:
If Rauner wants fallback to actually be SB1124, why doesn’t he just come out and say that. But does he have the votes on that bill? If not ( and he doesn’t), then he truly wants to play hot potato with both parties on education funding because he’s furious he got overridden and boxed in from the structure of the budget bills. Face it, he’s is emotional on this issue, and that is not how to govern. SB1 has the greatest support, and who knows what else Rauner will twiddle with in his promised AV. If you want schools to open, stay open , and get funding, it’s going to take an override of SB1. Otherwise there will be schools closing by Thanksgiving if not earlier because if SB1124 is the next offer Rauner will accept, negotiations will take that long if not into the New Year. Republicans really need to figure out if a known option(SB1) is better than an unknown (magical Rauner math).
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:27 am:
I look at some of the politic this way and I could be all wet but…
The move Rauner wants is to “Veto”, be it an AV (99.99%) or just a veto (doubtful, even at “0.01%”), but it’s Rauner using a veto yet again. It’s not about signing a successful piece of legislation to make a budget exist.
The longer Dems make Rauner say “I want to Veto”, the more damage, they hope, can be inflicted to blunt the defeat that Dems can’t override an AV on SB1.
Rauner knows this too.
Rauner having to continually say “I want the bill to veto it” isn’t great for him. Even going on Quad Cities TV and saying “all this money is taking from the the Quad Cities that’s going to Chicago” will gin up the “negative Chicago” meme Rauner rides for his base, but, again, what has Rauner signed? In reality, the sole reason SB1 is critical for school funding is the GA overrode Rauner to get this far.
So, Rauner needs to veto this as soon as possible to blunt the “Rauner vetoed that” first shoe that leads to SB1 and the second shoe.
The closer it gets to school starting, - RNUG -, I felt, had it pretty square…
It’s “Blame Madigan” or “Governors Own”, which will win?
“Rauner vetoed that” is the lever, and “Blame Madigan” for the Senate holding the bill? The game of chicken, this slow game of chicken is guessing how long to hold off the other to make a message stick.
But, I could be all wet on it…
- Ginhouse Tommy - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:27 am:
Nothing wrong with letting everyone cool their heels for a while. Political games. No big deal. The ILGOP on the other hand has no right to be so self righteous after the way Rauner has held the state hostage these past 2 years. As far as Cullerton being Madigan’s pawn, I think he has shown he has the backbone act on his own.
- winners and losers - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:30 am:
==Rauner had much better cards to play to stop the tax increase — but he chose not to play them==
Rauner and his former staff deliberately chose not to play those cards. They knew Illinois needed a budget (and tax increases).
Thus the veto, and the veto override (with the help of 11 Republicans).
This is more of a game of chicken, with each side determined to win.
- Markus - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:37 am:
Yep, Chicago and suburban schools are going to open and downstate schools will be in crisis because Rauner thinks taking away $200 million from CPS current funding meets the definition of “hold harmless”. Looks like Brady is going to get what he asked for; school funding used as leverage, but that leverage will largely impact school districts his caucus represents.
- A guy - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:40 am:
The mindset among all these characters is; nobody truly has anything to lose. They just don’t care. There’s no overwhelming risk to any of them, and no reward that amounts to anything to treasure.
So…it’s a grudge match. That’s all. This whole battle is being fought in a universe of about 1500 square feet. Nowhere beyond two floors of the Capitol Building matters to any of them. Ick.
- Das Opinionator - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:55 am:
Unlike the Downstate Machine, ours occasionally produces goods and services.
- winners and losers - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 10:58 am:
Has anyone yet named even ONE school that will not open in August if SB 1 does not become law?
- Dee Lay - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:04 am:
Honest Question:
Would an AV striking CPS dollars go against the Hold Harmless clause in the bill? If so, you would, in essence, nullify that clause which would cause several legislators on both sides to take issue.
Is that the potential uniting factor that would override the AV?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:05 am:
===Would an AV striking CPS dollars go against the Hold Harmless clause in the bill?===
No.
- Tequila Mockingbird - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:13 am:
Some school districts are in contract negotiations with no idea of state funding levels. Teachers unions wanting increases based on what might be there and boards and admins worrying about bargaining with what might not. Downstate schools will open, some without contracts. This is Not good government. There used to be something called “good faith” involved.
I want to see Rauner and Madigan fight a mano a mano duel to the death on the capitol lawn- for the good of the state.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:13 am:
===They just don’t care.===
Andy Manar spent the past three or four years working on this. It is the first major reform to what every observer has called the most unfair education funding model in the entire country. People who spend their lives caring about how Illinois educates its children, across this diverse state, have been hoping and praying for some modest steps in this direction.
Maybe people like you, in the suburbs, who neither gain nor lose anything, don’t care. But how dare you say this is nothing but a game? Just because your governor treats it as a bargaining chip doesn’t mean people don’t care about this.
But your cynicism is noted. Just please, for the love of God, stop pretending you speak for anyone other than yourself.
- NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:15 am:
They will all open. The schools can always get Tax Anticipation Warrants. Might there be some layoffs? Yes that is possible. Of course this is a game of power. But by holding the bill the Dems are looking like the bad boys,”If we can’t have our way we won’t let you see it!” How about they act like adults and follow the rules and get this process moving. Send it, wait for the AV and then over-ride or live with it. How refreshing that would be.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:29 am:
== Since then, there’s been no pension reform agreement, ==
Yes and no.
Yes, there has been no agreement on Cullerton’s legally questionable forced choice / consideration pension “reform” bill.
No, there was some pension reform in the package of budget bills that passed: Tier 3 plus some voluntary options to switch tiers with done resulting consideration.
The problem Rauner has is the legal stuff that did pass saves very little money, if any, short term … so it doesn’t help his FY budgets.
- Markus - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:36 am:
I suspect all schools will open, but most downstate don’t have cash flow for more than a few weeks. If the Dem’s play hardball like with the budget, there will be several districts taking a Thanksgiving to New Years break. Then during that time, enough GOP will come around to override. Once school starts, the pressure is off the Dems and on the GOP to keep their district schools open. Property tax distribution will keep City and suburban schools going longer than downstate.
When the Dems release SB 1, maybe during special session but likely in August before start of school, the message will be Rauner vetoed education funding; nobody cares about amendatory, Rauner vetoed is all people will hear. That’s the reality if the GOP wants to go that route.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:46 am:
Meanwhile, The US Census Bureau released its public education report for 2015 (previous was 2013) and Illinois residents experienced the 2nd largest increase in per pupil spending across all funding sources at 12% (CA was #1). A whopping 12% spending increase in 2 measly years when the national average was a 5.5% increase.
And here we squabble about the semantics of a $200M pension shift. Is “can’t see the forest for the trees” the right metaphor here?
- A guy - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 11:52 am:
==But how dare you say this is nothing but a game? Just because your governor treats it as a bargaining chip doesn’t mean people don’t care about this.==
Pass the tissues 47. Your croc tears are noted. That Andy Manar was really looking out for all of us. My Governor is your governor. My Speaker is your Speaker. We’re stuck with both of them I do dare say it’s a game to all of these people right now, because neither of them are thinking beyond themselves. They’re both blameful.
BTW, city fella. I do have a property in the city with a relative living in it. I’m invested there too. Crazy kid wants to live there. The suburbs have been doing a lot of heavy lifting pal. So quit with the fake outrage and smell the coffee.
It’s a grudge match now. And a senseless one. Beyond your faux outrage, you might sort out that we agree more than we don’t.
- Roman - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 12:04 pm:
== Any others? ==
Don’t underestimate the effect of General Assembly attendance difficulties. If Cullerton is planning on override vote, he has to make sure he has a date within the 15-day window when he’ll have 36 of his 37 members in Springfield. Hard to do that at the end of July and early August.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 12:09 pm:
You’re a regular Nostradamus A guy. Why don’t you do something a little more useful, like pick winning Lotto numbers, instead of telling everybody what I’m thinking. Use your psychic powers for the greater good once in a while.
Now, concentrate: I’m telling you something in my head. It’s something I’d like for you to do, which some say is unnatural. Can you guess what I’m thinking?
- City Zen - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
==It’s something I’d like for you to do, which some say is unnatural. Can you guess what I’m thinking?==
Vote for Chris Kennedy?
- A guy - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 12:16 pm:
==Can you guess what I’m thinking?===
Actually no I can’t. But I do know; instead of listening, you’re concentrating on what you’re going to say next. Unnatural enough for you Smarty pants?
- Fredo Corleone - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 12:50 pm:
This isn’t a $200 million one time bailout of CPS, it is $200 million from here on out and forever more. And it will only go up. Madigan and his toady Cullerton care not one bit about anyone not named Madigan or Cullerton.
Take a good hard look at Chicago. The despair in those neighborhoods is the result of decades of Democrat Mike throwing pennies at the poor while enriching himself and the chosen few. The lawlessness that has expanded beyond the bad neighborhoods is going to go away. You want to spend $200 million, then spend it in something that can make a difference. I say no more money thrown at CPS until the pension disaster is addressed. Otherwise in 2 years this same group that is happy to spend everyone else’s cash will be back for $400 million.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 12:56 pm:
===I say no more money thrown at CPS until the pension disaster is addressed===
And how are you gonna do that, big brain?
- Juvenal - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 1:20 pm:
=== They will all open. The schools can always get Tax Anticipation Warrants. ===
Let me say first that I LOVE that the conservative’s solution is that school districts should borrow money.
But the truth is that TAWs are extremely limited. They only allow you to borrow against expected receipts from the personal replacement tax for the next two years.
For Springfield’s school district, that would amount to less than $2 million. Maybe enough to keep the doors open for a week? What would be the point?
I hope the Big Brains have a better suggestion than “Let them borrow money.”
Keep in mind as well that as employers, school district are required to give ample warning of potential lay-offs to their staff, under labor law and under their contracts. So, if a school district only has enough money to stay open until October 31, that probably need to give notice to their teachers on Sept 1, perhaps sooner.
Watchya got, Big Brains?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 1:38 pm:
–The lawlessness that has expanded beyond the bad neighborhoods is going to go away.–
Fredo, that’s good news. Which “good” neighborhoods?
Fredo, by the way, is an interesting self-identifier.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 2:09 pm:
Would someone ask Senator Cullerton what the point of another Leaders meeting be?
Even when they agree, they can’t do what they agreed to.
“There was a commitment in our leaders meetings last summer, when we did our stopgap spending plan … that when we did comprehensive pension reform for the state, Chicago’s teacher pension would be changed instead to be picked up by the state,” Rauner said. “That was part of the — that was a verbal agreement, crystal clear.
That point has not been disputed. Why would the Governor suddenly capitulate to the Speaker and Senate President?
if the bill is truly unconstitutional what is the logic of blowing up the School funding to prevent an unconstitutional pension bill from passing?
That makes zero sense.
Perhaps one of these intrepid reporters can ask the Speaker and Senate President some hard questions about why they are perfectly willing to let schools not open so their special interest unions are not offended.
- Disgusted Downstate - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 2:16 pm:
Schools outside of the city are required to provide layoff notices to teachers 45 days before the end of the previous school year. We have no ability to cut teaching staff at this point for the upcoming school year.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 3:02 pm:
Well thank you for the compliment. As a left hander, science does support the fact that I do have a bigger brain. Of course it really doesn’t take a big brain to realize that you need to stop throwing good money after bad relative to the pension debacle.
For starters, amend the state constitution and eliminate pensions for public employees. Private companies have had to face the facts and eliminate pensions, and the demographics simply will not support the continuation of any pension in government. Hard facts to hear for some, but put on your big boy pants and man up.
So vote Republican across the line next time and sit back while the problems of this state get fixed. After all, we’ve tried it with Democrats for decades and have been in the bottom 5 states fiscally since 2010. Can’t blame Rauner for that now can you.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 3:08 pm:
===…amend the state constitution and eliminate pensions for public employees…===
Accrued pension be fits are monies owed.
So there’s that.
You also need to “amend the constitution”, it’s not like ordering a cheeseburger and you get a cheeseburger.
If it were that “easy”… so there’s that too.
Oh… I forgot… it’s going to take time for your plan. Factor in all that time needed too.
So… where’s the easy here?
- Fredo Corleone - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 3:18 pm:
Agreed that monies owed are owed.
So your answer is don’t amend the constitution because it is hard. Solves nothing. When you know what needs to be done, you do it. Maybe you think hope and prayer is a strategy.
I know it isn’t going to happen with Madigan and Cullerton in office.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 3:30 pm:
== amend the state constitution and eliminate pensions for public employees. ==
The State effectively did that with Tier 2 where all the funding comes from the employee.
Tier 3 actually puts the State back in the pension business because they have to contribute something for the match.
Go ahead and change things. It will only affect new hires. Still have to pay for current employees.
- Fredo Corleone - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 3:39 pm:
Yes, we all acknowledge that changes will only be effective from that point forward. So do it now please. The sooner the better. And ensure that current employees no longer accrue any more credits under the old system. No grandfathering. Is everyone okay with that as well, because that is where the private sector was forced to go.
With such changes, the state still faces additional tax increases, and likely significant headcount reductions. Since the state can’t declare bankruptcy there is no alternative. Future looks bright doesn’t it.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 3:59 pm:
== And ensure that current employees no longer accrue any more credits under the old system. ==
Not an option. This has already been ruled on by IL SC.
- Fredo Corleone - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 4:14 pm:
I’m sure if the constitution is amended some lawyer can take another run at that one. The level of frustration continues to grow, and the recent tax increase courtesy of Madigan and Cullerton will exacerbate it. You can defend those two and their minions all you want. You can blame Rauner all day long. Honest people and business owners will leave the state in larger numbers than ever. And while I know it isn’t a popular opinion, many people feel those in the public sector don’t exactly demonstrate exceptional wotk ethic for those sweet pensions they get.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 4:52 pm:
== I’m sure if the constitution is amended some lawyer can take another run at that one. ==
That theory has already been discredited.
Won’t change the outcome except this time the same seven on the IL SC will cite contract law in addition to the then existing pension clause.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 4:54 pm:
Fredo, blind hope is not a plan.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 4:59 pm:
==Private companies have had to face the facts and eliminate pensions==
But they could not eliminate social security/medicare payments…and many also offer matching 401k plans.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 5:01 pm:
==many people feel those in the public sector don’t exactly demonstrate exceptional work ethic for those sweet pensions they get.==
Yeah. Public employees are just skating by doing no work and living high on the hog on their pensions. I don’t get this public employee hate some of you harbor.
- Fredo Corleone - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 5:06 pm:
Rich, neither is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 5:13 pm:
== neither is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. ==
Maybe the State could try actuarial funding of the pensions? That would be something different … but would require more tax revenue.
- Fredo Corleone - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 5:26 pm:
Demoralized - hate is a strong word.
Some of the perspective held in the private sector is based on past history. Who hasn’t seen the news coverage of public employees sleeping on the job, or using government equipment for personal use. This isn’t fair to the great majority of public employeesm but it is out there.
My point is, unlike many of the posters here, there are a significant number of Illinois residents who are beyond frustrated with the state of the state. High property taxes, high sales taxes and increasing income taxes that are only going to go higher, and most of it going not for improved services, but for pensions.
Given that scenario, what do you think the outcome will be.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 25, 17 @ 6:44 pm:
== High property taxes, high sales taxes and increasing income taxes that are only going to go higher, and most of it going not for improved services, but for pensions. ==
I’m not happy about it either. Over the years I earned a significant amount of money from book royalties, outside consulting, and rental property. I paid taxes on those earnings to the State. The State was not responsible with their use of that tax money.
But I’m also an adult. I recognized the State held taxes artificially low. I recognized the IL SC, in the 1975 IFT decision and subsequent ones, let the State off the hook for properly funding the pensions … and that the bill was going to come due someday.
Someday is now today … and we all have to pay that bill. The older residents at least got low taxes for a long time in exchange.
The problem we have today is a divisive Governor and some legislative members who now want to negate the contract they agreed to. And since, in a lot of cases, the private sector robbed their pensioners blind, people without government pensions want the same thing to happen to the government workers and retirees. A good Governor would be looking to solve this problem or at least minimize it; all our current Governor wants to do is try to rob the workers and retirees just like he did most of the employees of his various bust-out operations.
Nobody likes it but the math dictates high amounts of revenue going to the pensions for the foreseeable future. If the State really wanted to address the pension funding issue, they could settle on a actuarially sound level payment plan that would cost between $1B and $2B more initially but would result in lower future payments and a declining percentage of the State budget. This is probably not doable at the current time because Rauner dug the State $10B further in debt for no real achievement or purpose.