There is no fight until someone throws a punch or a flying body slam. So far it is just building crowd frenzy in anticipation of a fight. I am still wearing my prediction-proof glasses.
In mid to late August a funding bill (not SB1) with much the same language as SB1 including the Chicago block grant but not the Chicago pension parity will pass. A separate bill will pass that includes Chicago pension parity. Also Cullerton’s pension consideration model will pass and the “deal” will be Chicago pension parity for the long-promised pension reform in the mold of the Cullerton model. Between now and then: much teeth gnashing.
I think a new bill will be passed with bi-partisan votes that implements the changes to the funding formula and excludes the so-called “extra” funding for the Chicago Public Schools, which will have to wait a bit longer to get new money from Springfield.
I also think it’s pretty despicable how Rauner is treating the children of CPS like they are somehow unworthy of investing in. CPS was good enough for his child, but today’s students are on their own. I just hope no one forgets that he turned his back on CPS when they needed his help.
That’s all I’m going to think about each and every time I see he and his wife smiling at me on my television, telling me how hard Rauner is fighting for me and my family.
Rauner will sign and say he’s agreed to an adjustment for next years budget concerning Chicago pensions. He got on board too late with this and based on today’s negotiation comments he’s figured out the legislative process. Process means if he issues a veto and it’s not accepted or overridden he just vetoed school funding. He’ll get 13 days of press beating up Cullerton but he’ll have months of living with a veto during petition season.
Cullerton will honor his word and send SB 1 on Monday. Whether there will be any negotiated changes to it or not remains to be seen. I tend to think there won’t be because whoever is/are the messenger(s) for Rauner will play his game of “never enough”. So, Rauner will AV. Then, I hope (can’t seem to ditch that little dickens), that there will be a Brave Bipartisan Override in both chambers. I cannot see Rauner backing down at all now that he’s in full IPI mode. Love to be proven wrong though.
SB1 is a good bill. When one has something reasonable on their plate. Then accept it with reason. Though since a large side of IPI is at the table too. You can forget about it. The new kids on the block will destroy our society as they will sleep well knowing the pain inflicted on others. It’s the Rauner titanic and we are sinking with the IPI orchestra playing in the background.
I’m pretty sure that SB 1 will die, and there will have to be another bill put together really quickly. What that bill looks like, who caves in on what, I couldn’t tell you. Personally I hope that Chicago gets the “bail out” but the governor is on the warpath and wants a win and wants Chicago democrats to lose, and he’s willing to hurt CPS schools kids to get a notch on his belt, so I bet they come out behind when the dust settles.
SB1 will pass, Rauner will pout and hire a new group of people with no experience and overpay them. Rauner will then do more commercials with his wife that point to Madigan as the worst person ever to live in Illinois. He will then go on vacation.
Nothing passes and is signed by the Governor until schools cannot open or some run out of money.The Governor will be held most responsible for his veto.
Eventually SB1 or similar version will pass with the “Extra Money” for the CPS because the schools that need the money the most are located in GOP districts.
SB1 will pass…once voters realize Bruce numbers are off by $375 million. I also expect at least one more of Rauner’s negotiators (in addition to Jason) will be run over by him.
Rauner AVs SB1. SB1 override vote not even attempted. Negotiators work out a compromise. It passes with veto proof majorities. The governor vetoes it anyway giving another silly reason and pits Chicago vs Downstate. It is overridden. Schools all open on time and stay open.
1st timer…
Rauner lost the budget battle, he NEVER loses. He brings on EXTREME IPI members who will propose their education funding based on their budget proposal. If schools don’t open IPI and Rauner don’t care, his business philosophy is to destroy it then rebuild and sell, they believe in their heart and mind that Illinois and its citizens need to know IPI’s philosphy is right. If Bruce loses this fight it will not be will without casualties, parents will know that he means what he says and that changes will happen regardless who has to get hurt, I WIN at EVERYTHING I DO. With IPI as his advisor there will be no surrender on anything, readers need to look at the budget they proposed, cut, cut, privatise or do without the agency and employees. This is ground zero for IPI, they are in charge, they will institute their ideas on how government should operate and if they can’t everyone needs to suffer and learn that they are right in their beliefs.
In a war of attrition, more GOP represented school districts close early. CPS will stay open; Rahm will find a way. Superintendents from districts forced to close will tell their parents they support SB1 as fair to their district and the Bailout claim is mostly political rhetoric; but in any case not worth closing their school over it. Then the AV gets overridden after a needless battle that is more about ideology and dividing the State than substance.
This is only a battle worth fighting for ideologues who care nothing about the near-term consequences of their actions. So in that case, Bruce is all-in thru 2018; but if schools close, Repeal & Replace the GOP sentiment could overwhelm Because Madigan. Bruce has an F*n’ problem in 2018 regardless, hopefully he doesn’t take the rest of the GOP down with him.
Optimistically, pragmatism wins out and next week the GOP “negotiates” provisions for the “bailout” to get re-packaged in a pension funding bill, saving face and declaring victory but essentially changing nothing financially. Madigan may even release the pension reform bill as a final give to make the deal knowing it likely gets struck down by the ISC. Best case is re-packaging SB-1, worst case is a war of attrition. It’s a toss-up and requires GOP legislators to grow a spine either way.
If there is a veto then GA will vote to over ride. Republicans will join because no-one wants to face closes schools. But this will not solve the problem for Chicago. CPS is a district out of balance and only if they do the cutting that needs to happen can they hope to right size the district. And without that they will never have enough resources for the kids, not the teachers but the kids.
It will end the same way the budget and tax increase fight ended. Rauner will veto and there will be enough Republicans with a conscience that will support the override. Then the Governor will spend his millions attacking those who put the interests of our children over his need to burn the State down. The battle lines will be drawn and the narratives will be set
Rauner will lose horribly like he did on the budget fight. The outcome will be dictated by who can work the process to their advantage. This was evidenced by Rauner tripping all over himself this week. And Rauner is up against two leaders who know the legislative process better than anyone and the lead sponsor of SB 1 who was a former chief of staff who has some impressive skills as a lawmaker.
Rauner will AV. Won’t be enough votes to override so Dems will take it to a court (liberal venue) that will somehow rule that the extra money for CPS must still be paid until the constitutionality of Rauner’s AV is ultimately decided. The lawsuit will last until at least after the next election.
- lake county democrat - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:58 pm:
Dems will delay a bit more and then send bill to Rauner. They won’t override the AV. Have no idea what happens after that.
This is actually a more in-depth question then at first blush.
This is the “IPI Moment”.
This is, actually, the Kristina Rassmussen moment too
It’s not Rauner, it’s not Brady’s… Durkin’s… the Rauner negotiators’…
This is the “IPI Moment”
Now, accepting that, I need to see what the heck does that mean.
Well, it means “winning”.
Diana and Bruce wants wins. They want messaging of wins, they want pain, destruction, and frame that as “Bruce wins” and “Non-Raunerite” loses.
Rauner either fired or had 20+ staffers leave. Some forced out because worrying about how things hurt Illinois, that’s not acceptable.
So, Diana and Bruce turned to Tillman’s Team and the IPI. The group that proposed a budget no governor could win reelection with unless people were told the wrong day to vote.
(Sigh)
So… This will end with Kristina telling Bruve to stick to his principles and AV the bill, legally (constitutionally or not, we don’t know because, well, we have no idea what Rauner is thinking) and if the GA accepts or overrides, while both look “iffy” at best, Rauner hurt Chicago, that’s a win for “taxpayers” (code: those like IPI thinkers).
We have the AV, we have negotiators, we have a “new bill”, we have… a mess.
Making sure the AV response fails, and making Rauner owns the mess, schools are “now” in peril. Rassmussen sees the negotiations for this new bill the “hill to make her bones”.
September… It won’t get to September.
What it will get to is Rauner, and how much heat he will take as this new Crew cheers on.
“Monday” to September 1st, with pain and angst and ugliness. It will end with how much pain Rauner can handle.
Rauner has not shown that he knows the details of legislation or of the legislative process. It seems he just realized that if SB1 reaches his desk in its current form, he is in a box; sign or AV with a high chance of failure.
When I worked in Saudi, I was careful to never let an issue become a “face” issue. I could never win a face issue with a Saudi official. Rauner turns everything into a face issue. I do not see how he reframes this into a victory.
I think the negotiations fail and we deal with the AV. That fails and we face chaos.
SB1 passed with bipartisan majorities (IIRC — if not, ignore the rest of this, which is likely anyway) and appears widely supported by superintendents (contra Rauner’s claims). The guv is on record as agreeing with 90 percent of the bill.
So the deck is stacked against the guv. If he vetoes, he owns that whether overridden or not. “Chicago bailout” will not trump “schools not open/didn’t get promised state money/tried to stop school funding.” Most people will not follow arguments about funding formulas, but will focus on local impact: “Would my schools have received more money under SB1 than before?” The answer seems to be yes. Next question: “So why didn’t my schools get that money?” Because the guv vetoed the bill. Even if overridden, the campaign messaging is still there: “The guv tried to veto funding for my schools — what kind of person does that?”
Whether the captain and crew of SS Rauner recognize this is uncertain, but many GOP legislators do and some may not want to go down with the ship. Something like SB1 will therefore probably emerge in the end, giving the schools some of the funding they need and the Dems an effective messaging tool (”we saved your schools from the guv”).
Looks like a beautiful weekend, folks — get outside to enjoy it and try to forget about all the craziness for at least a little while.
If Rauner knows the AV won’t be overridden and schools may not open he caves and signs the bill.
He is at best a coward and will not take the heat. As Wordslinger has said repeatedly he really did want a budget and a tax hike and that’s why he vetoed the budget immediately so it could be overridden.
How does it end? Like it always does. Prolly give CPS a good chunk of money. HS football will start on time. Three years from now we will go back to the working poor and middle classes for more taxes. Local property taxes will continue to escalate. Sales and service taxes will go up. Its like deja vu all over again.
- My New Handle - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:19 pm:
There is no fight until someone throws a punch or a flying body slam. So far it is just building crowd frenzy in anticipation of a fight. I am still wearing my prediction-proof glasses.
- The Captain - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:19 pm:
In mid to late August a funding bill (not SB1) with much the same language as SB1 including the Chicago block grant but not the Chicago pension parity will pass. A separate bill will pass that includes Chicago pension parity. Also Cullerton’s pension consideration model will pass and the “deal” will be Chicago pension parity for the long-promised pension reform in the mold of the Cullerton model. Between now and then: much teeth gnashing.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:19 pm:
I think a new bill will be passed with bi-partisan votes that implements the changes to the funding formula and excludes the so-called “extra” funding for the Chicago Public Schools, which will have to wait a bit longer to get new money from Springfield.
I also think it’s pretty despicable how Rauner is treating the children of CPS like they are somehow unworthy of investing in. CPS was good enough for his child, but today’s students are on their own. I just hope no one forgets that he turned his back on CPS when they needed his help.
That’s all I’m going to think about each and every time I see he and his wife smiling at me on my television, telling me how hard Rauner is fighting for me and my family.
- Harlan17 - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:20 pm:
Madigan and Cullerton will get what they want with the assistance of a few GOP members that oppose Rauner
- Anonymous - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:23 pm:
Rauner will sign and say he’s agreed to an adjustment for next years budget concerning Chicago pensions. He got on board too late with this and based on today’s negotiation comments he’s figured out the legislative process. Process means if he issues a veto and it’s not accepted or overridden he just vetoed school funding. He’ll get 13 days of press beating up Cullerton but he’ll have months of living with a veto during petition season.
- Anon221 - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:28 pm:
Cullerton will honor his word and send SB 1 on Monday. Whether there will be any negotiated changes to it or not remains to be seen. I tend to think there won’t be because whoever is/are the messenger(s) for Rauner will play his game of “never enough”. So, Rauner will AV. Then, I hope (can’t seem to ditch that little dickens), that there will be a Brave Bipartisan Override in both chambers. I cannot see Rauner backing down at all now that he’s in full IPI mode. Love to be proven wrong though.
- Huh? - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:30 pm:
1.4% AV the bill. Override fails. Madigan and Democrats get blamed for schools not opening. New bipartisan bill passes. Vetoed. Override in fall.
- Hey Now - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:33 pm:
SB1 is a good bill. When one has something reasonable on their plate. Then accept it with reason. Though since a large side of IPI is at the table too. You can forget about it. The new kids on the block will destroy our society as they will sleep well knowing the pain inflicted on others. It’s the Rauner titanic and we are sinking with the IPI orchestra playing in the background.
- Perrid - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:38 pm:
I’m pretty sure that SB 1 will die, and there will have to be another bill put together really quickly. What that bill looks like, who caves in on what, I couldn’t tell you. Personally I hope that Chicago gets the “bail out” but the governor is on the warpath and wants a win and wants Chicago democrats to lose, and he’s willing to hurt CPS schools kids to get a notch on his belt, so I bet they come out behind when the dust settles.
- Saluki - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:45 pm:
Rauner loses again. That’s how it will end.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:47 pm:
It will end with yet another staff in place in the Governors’ office January first. Because, messagin’ ain’t workin’
- Downstate commissioner - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:48 pm:
Saluki beat me to it, except I was going to say that Cullerton and Madigan would win again…
- Flynn's mom - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:51 pm:
SB1 will pass, Rauner will pout and hire a new group of people with no experience and overpay them. Rauner will then do more commercials with his wife that point to Madigan as the worst person ever to live in Illinois. He will then go on vacation.
- Piece of Work - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:51 pm:
However MJM wants it to end
- MOON - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:53 pm:
SB1 dies.
Nothing passes and is signed by the Governor until schools cannot open or some run out of money.The Governor will be held most responsible for his veto.
Eventually SB1 or similar version will pass with the “Extra Money” for the CPS because the schools that need the money the most are located in GOP districts.
- Jocko - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:56 pm:
SB1 will pass…once voters realize Bruce numbers are off by $375 million. I also expect at least one more of Rauner’s negotiators (in addition to Jason) will be run over by him.
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 1:58 pm:
Rauner AVs SB1. SB1 override vote not even attempted. Negotiators work out a compromise. It passes with veto proof majorities. The governor vetoes it anyway giving another silly reason and pits Chicago vs Downstate. It is overridden. Schools all open on time and stay open.
- Michael Westen - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:12 pm:
Rauner’s veto gets overridden again. Politically, GOP lawmakers cannot allow schools not to open in the fall.
- Popeye - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:13 pm:
1st timer…
Rauner lost the budget battle, he NEVER loses. He brings on EXTREME IPI members who will propose their education funding based on their budget proposal. If schools don’t open IPI and Rauner don’t care, his business philosophy is to destroy it then rebuild and sell, they believe in their heart and mind that Illinois and its citizens need to know IPI’s philosphy is right. If Bruce loses this fight it will not be will without casualties, parents will know that he means what he says and that changes will happen regardless who has to get hurt, I WIN at EVERYTHING I DO. With IPI as his advisor there will be no surrender on anything, readers need to look at the budget they proposed, cut, cut, privatise or do without the agency and employees. This is ground zero for IPI, they are in charge, they will institute their ideas on how government should operate and if they can’t everyone needs to suffer and learn that they are right in their beliefs.
- Markus - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:19 pm:
In a war of attrition, more GOP represented school districts close early. CPS will stay open; Rahm will find a way. Superintendents from districts forced to close will tell their parents they support SB1 as fair to their district and the Bailout claim is mostly political rhetoric; but in any case not worth closing their school over it. Then the AV gets overridden after a needless battle that is more about ideology and dividing the State than substance.
This is only a battle worth fighting for ideologues who care nothing about the near-term consequences of their actions. So in that case, Bruce is all-in thru 2018; but if schools close, Repeal & Replace the GOP sentiment could overwhelm Because Madigan. Bruce has an F*n’ problem in 2018 regardless, hopefully he doesn’t take the rest of the GOP down with him.
Optimistically, pragmatism wins out and next week the GOP “negotiates” provisions for the “bailout” to get re-packaged in a pension funding bill, saving face and declaring victory but essentially changing nothing financially. Madigan may even release the pension reform bill as a final give to make the deal knowing it likely gets struck down by the ISC. Best case is re-packaging SB-1, worst case is a war of attrition. It’s a toss-up and requires GOP legislators to grow a spine either way.
- NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:22 pm:
If there is a veto then GA will vote to over ride. Republicans will join because no-one wants to face closes schools. But this will not solve the problem for Chicago. CPS is a district out of balance and only if they do the cutting that needs to happen can they hope to right size the district. And without that they will never have enough resources for the kids, not the teachers but the kids.
- Redraider - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:24 pm:
It will end the same way the budget and tax increase fight ended. Rauner will veto and there will be enough Republicans with a conscience that will support the override. Then the Governor will spend his millions attacking those who put the interests of our children over his need to burn the State down. The battle lines will be drawn and the narratives will be set
- Fixed - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:28 pm:
Rauner will lose horribly like he did on the budget fight. The outcome will be dictated by who can work the process to their advantage. This was evidenced by Rauner tripping all over himself this week. And Rauner is up against two leaders who know the legislative process better than anyone and the lead sponsor of SB 1 who was a former chief of staff who has some impressive skills as a lawmaker.
- Illinois Refugee - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:33 pm:
Rauner will AV. Won’t be enough votes to override so Dems will take it to a court (liberal venue) that will somehow rule that the extra money for CPS must still be paid until the constitutionality of Rauner’s AV is ultimately decided. The lawsuit will last until at least after the next election.
- lake county democrat - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 2:58 pm:
Dems will delay a bit more and then send bill to Rauner. They won’t override the AV. Have no idea what happens after that.
- Shake - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:00 pm:
Rauner Loses Again. Love To Say That..
- Real - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:03 pm:
I say the dems may allow Rauner to own his veto which means schools won’t open.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:04 pm:
This is actually a more in-depth question then at first blush.
This is the “IPI Moment”.
This is, actually, the Kristina Rassmussen moment too
It’s not Rauner, it’s not Brady’s… Durkin’s… the Rauner negotiators’…
This is the “IPI Moment”
Now, accepting that, I need to see what the heck does that mean.
Well, it means “winning”.
Diana and Bruce wants wins. They want messaging of wins, they want pain, destruction, and frame that as “Bruce wins” and “Non-Raunerite” loses.
Rauner either fired or had 20+ staffers leave. Some forced out because worrying about how things hurt Illinois, that’s not acceptable.
So, Diana and Bruce turned to Tillman’s Team and the IPI. The group that proposed a budget no governor could win reelection with unless people were told the wrong day to vote.
(Sigh)
So… This will end with Kristina telling Bruve to stick to his principles and AV the bill, legally (constitutionally or not, we don’t know because, well, we have no idea what Rauner is thinking) and if the GA accepts or overrides, while both look “iffy” at best, Rauner hurt Chicago, that’s a win for “taxpayers” (code: those like IPI thinkers).
We have the AV, we have negotiators, we have a “new bill”, we have… a mess.
Making sure the AV response fails, and making Rauner owns the mess, schools are “now” in peril. Rassmussen sees the negotiations for this new bill the “hill to make her bones”.
September… It won’t get to September.
What it will get to is Rauner, and how much heat he will take as this new Crew cheers on.
“Monday” to September 1st, with pain and angst and ugliness. It will end with how much pain Rauner can handle.
- A guy - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:10 pm:
Some version of it will pass. Hopefully negotiated before the Monday special delivery.
The override votes aren’t there. They know it. They’re going to have to actually negotiate this the more conventional way. I think they will.
- Last Bull Moose - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:30 pm:
Rauner has not shown that he knows the details of legislation or of the legislative process. It seems he just realized that if SB1 reaches his desk in its current form, he is in a box; sign or AV with a high chance of failure.
When I worked in Saudi, I was careful to never let an issue become a “face” issue. I could never win a face issue with a Saudi official. Rauner turns everything into a face issue. I do not see how he reframes this into a victory.
I think the negotiations fail and we deal with the AV. That fails and we face chaos.
- Flapdoodle - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:41 pm:
SB1 passed with bipartisan majorities (IIRC — if not, ignore the rest of this, which is likely anyway) and appears widely supported by superintendents (contra Rauner’s claims). The guv is on record as agreeing with 90 percent of the bill.
So the deck is stacked against the guv. If he vetoes, he owns that whether overridden or not. “Chicago bailout” will not trump “schools not open/didn’t get promised state money/tried to stop school funding.” Most people will not follow arguments about funding formulas, but will focus on local impact: “Would my schools have received more money under SB1 than before?” The answer seems to be yes. Next question: “So why didn’t my schools get that money?” Because the guv vetoed the bill. Even if overridden, the campaign messaging is still there: “The guv tried to veto funding for my schools — what kind of person does that?”
Whether the captain and crew of SS Rauner recognize this is uncertain, but many GOP legislators do and some may not want to go down with the ship. Something like SB1 will therefore probably emerge in the end, giving the schools some of the funding they need and the Dems an effective messaging tool (”we saved your schools from the guv”).
Looks like a beautiful weekend, folks — get outside to enjoy it and try to forget about all the craziness for at least a little while.
- Paustinov - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:53 pm:
The nice men in the white coats will escort gov rauner to his new home at an under funded mental institution.
- DeseDemDose - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 3:59 pm:
Rauner and his amateurs will lose again as hurting CPS children for spite is a losing cause no matter what happens.
- eyeball - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 4:01 pm:
School funding reform fails. Limited budget is passed to fund schools based upon current funding formula. There is a new SB1 next legislative session.
- don the legend - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 4:05 pm:
If Rauner knows the AV won’t be overridden and schools may not open he caves and signs the bill.
He is at best a coward and will not take the heat. As Wordslinger has said repeatedly he really did want a budget and a tax hike and that’s why he vetoed the budget immediately so it could be overridden.
- blue dog dem - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 4:16 pm:
How does it end? Like it always does. Prolly give CPS a good chunk of money. HS football will start on time. Three years from now we will go back to the working poor and middle classes for more taxes. Local property taxes will continue to escalate. Sales and service taxes will go up. Its like deja vu all over again.
- Mama - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 4:23 pm:
=don the legend - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 4:05 pm: =
don the legend , I disagree. Rauner will veto, and he will blame the Dems for his veto.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 28, 17 @ 4:26 pm:
===…he (Rauner) will blame the Dems for his veto.===
Only a Guv can veto.
They could try…