The Senate has the votes to override. By Rich’s count, there are six announced HGOPs who are not returning, and there is speculation that more such announcements are on the way.
The HGOPs need to decide what their legacy will be/ Will they be on Bruce and Diana’s Christmas card list in the future, or will they do right by their legislative districts and the voters who sent them to Springfield?
This shouldn’t be a tough choice for most of them.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:17 am:
===The HGOPs need to decide what their legacy will be/ Will they be on Bruce and Diana’s Christmas card list in the future, or will they do right by their legislative districts and the voters who sent them to Springfield?===
I don’t think you’re wrong. Not at all wrong. I also think as this has played out, the Senate seems to be the “easiest” of the heavy lifts, but can I look at all these “retirements” and fed up HRepublicans turning their back(s) on Raunerism…
===One of the real reasons that Dems are waiting this out is that 71 and 36 aren’t guaranteed, and that Rauner knowing this, a compromise trailer bill to save school funding will need to be carted out, and then that will need 71 and 36.
Rauner hit into a Double Play. The first out (the AV) is the given, the second out (the override or acceptance) isn’t a guaranteed play.
It’s a 1 in 4, and I think I’m probably being “generous”===
… the Sunday window, for me, will decide if I move that 1 in 4 to better odds.
Seeing how Ms. Bourne and Mr. Barickman are playing this, I’m not… hopeful?
You’re probably right Rich, and Willy too. I just think for those HGOPs who voted for the budget override, this is a much easier vote. Yes, it’s still a “bailout,” but so many aren’t returning that it isn’t likely to be a defining issue for them.
But I’m wrong a lot. I originally thought a trailer bill that cut out CPS’ “extra” cash was the likely path, but I think the Speaker should give an override a big push. He’s got nothing to lose and there are some HGOP wild cards on the table. I don’t see how Rauner has leverage over them.
Aren’t there enough retiring GOP House members, that when added to House Dems would be more than enuf to override. Seems like almost every day another House GOP member hangs it up.
No, it’s really not. Downstate legislators are uniformly upset at “low” residential Chicago property taxes. Those House Dem add-ons are poison pills to them.
===Those House Dem add-ons are poison pills to them.===
I don’t disagree necessarily, but compared to voting to raise the income tax, a vote to improve Illinois’ school funding formula, even with the CPS “bailout” seems an easier road to me. Especially if that particular legislator isn’t returning. And even more especially if an override is seen as the only way to ensure local schools open on time.
Pardon my ignorant question, but here it is:
If there aren’t enough votes to override, and the override vote fails, can the GA bring it up again in fall veto?
If they don’t call the vote now, and nothing happens, can the GA call it for the override vote during fall veto?
Cardsfan, the Senate has to act within 15 days of when the Governor’s veto was read into the journal. So if it fails they cannot bring the motion back outside that 15 day (fall veto session).
47th Ward’s assessment should not be discounted. If Republicans block SB1, the Democrats are going to make rural Republican districts pay a heavy price. All they have to do is wait until October when downstate schools start to close to propose a bill that is marginally worse than SB1 while claiming to be working on a compromise. I might not like it, but the Senate President and the House Speaker have a better legislative strategy than the Governor.
== It’s not a “price”, it’s not even a strategy. ==
Waiting for the Republicans to realize that the trap is now unavoidable is part of the strategy. This trap was created by the clause in the budget bills that prevents the distribution of education funding without a evidence-based formula. The lack of agreement on funding formula imposes more pain in rural districts downstate due to greater reliance on state education funding. This pain differential is the leverage that will likely force some Republicans to capitulate. I call that a legislative strategy.
==Override vote (passes/fails?) or no vote called and wait it out==
There will be an override vote in the Senate before August 16. Based on the previous voting history, that vote will likely succeed. If the Senate override is successful, the House will hold an override vote in late August. The outcome of the override vote in the House is more difficult to predict, but the Speaker will be sure to have a vote if only to claim that the Republicans in the House along with the Governor have blocked school funding.
===The outcome of the override vote in the House is more difficult to predict, but the Speaker will be sure to have a vote if only to claim that the Republicans in the House along with the Governor have blocked school funding.===
Yep.
The numbers to get to 71 in the House, if it even gets to the House and the Senate gets that 36 (possible/nothing guaranteed) these are things everyone knew.
The only variable (fumble) was Rauner thinking he needed a simple majority.
Rauner will then have vetoed and/or killed every legislative mechanism to budget for this state.
The overrides saved everything but school funding, the “third rail” in budgets, and Rauner himself holds the sole responsibility.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:18 am: “To SB 1 school supporters in GOP districts. Get together and go to them and pledge your support if they do what’s right instead of what’s political.”
The governor’s AV cannot help you. District superintendents & parents you can not sit this one out and hope for the best. Start calling or emailing your legislator now & demand their support.
== The only variable (fumble) was Rauner thinking he needed a simple majority. ==
Unforced error. Rauner was thinking he could get his school funding by having just D’s (almost) vote to override. Not realizing the need for 71 boxed Rauner in. Now Rauner has to put R votes on it for it to pass … and that is a high price downstate, even with a bought and paid for party.
==The overrides saved everything but school funding, the “third rail” in budgets, and Rauner himself holds the sole responsibility.==
Agree.
==Same as May 31st.==
Disagree, the strategic turning point was not May 31. The change in leverage occured in early July when the Governor opted to veto the reasonable budget bills and pragmatic Republicans in the House voted to override the Governor in response. All of the subsequent fervor concerning SB1 is due to the fact that the Governor did (does?) not understand the full magnitude of his defeat in July.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:07 am:
Ok, GOP solons. You have until Sunday to negotiate a face saver. Or, are you going to keep jumping off the cliff with Rauner?
- Ghost - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:07 am:
Que western gunfighter stand off track…..
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:12 am:
The Senate has the votes to override. By Rich’s count, there are six announced HGOPs who are not returning, and there is speculation that more such announcements are on the way.
The HGOPs need to decide what their legacy will be/ Will they be on Bruce and Diana’s Christmas card list in the future, or will they do right by their legislative districts and the voters who sent them to Springfield?
This shouldn’t be a tough choice for most of them.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:17 am:
Ghost 11:07-
Could it be anything other than “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0-DlkLfEiM
- Shake - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:17 am:
If The GOP Care About ILLINOIS Children. This Should Be An Easy Choice. Jump Off Of Rauners Sinking Ship.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:18 am:
To SB 1 school supporters in GOP districts. Get together and go to them and pledge your support if they do what’s right instead of what’s political.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:21 am:
- 47th Ward -
===The HGOPs need to decide what their legacy will be/ Will they be on Bruce and Diana’s Christmas card list in the future, or will they do right by their legislative districts and the voters who sent them to Springfield?===
I don’t think you’re wrong. Not at all wrong. I also think as this has played out, the Senate seems to be the “easiest” of the heavy lifts, but can I look at all these “retirements” and fed up HRepublicans turning their back(s) on Raunerism…
===One of the real reasons that Dems are waiting this out is that 71 and 36 aren’t guaranteed, and that Rauner knowing this, a compromise trailer bill to save school funding will need to be carted out, and then that will need 71 and 36.
Rauner hit into a Double Play. The first out (the AV) is the given, the second out (the override or acceptance) isn’t a guaranteed play.
It’s a 1 in 4, and I think I’m probably being “generous”===
… the Sunday window, for me, will decide if I move that 1 in 4 to better odds.
Seeing how Ms. Bourne and Mr. Barickman are playing this, I’m not… hopeful?
- AC - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:23 am:
Between a badly written ammendatory veto and his poor answers to the press, the Governor is double everything he can do to make an override possible.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:23 am:
47th, the only path to an override I see right now is with a trailer bill. As is, it’s pretty doubtful. But we’ll see how long stuff percolates.
- Ghost - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:23 am:
six of course! i couldnt come up with an descriptive equivalent that was recognizable
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:35 am:
You’re probably right Rich, and Willy too. I just think for those HGOPs who voted for the budget override, this is a much easier vote. Yes, it’s still a “bailout,” but so many aren’t returning that it isn’t likely to be a defining issue for them.
But I’m wrong a lot. I originally thought a trailer bill that cut out CPS’ “extra” cash was the likely path, but I think the Speaker should give an override a big push. He’s got nothing to lose and there are some HGOP wild cards on the table. I don’t see how Rauner has leverage over them.
- Johnny Justice - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:45 am:
Aren’t there enough retiring GOP House members, that when added to House Dems would be more than enuf to override. Seems like almost every day another House GOP member hangs it up.
- Whatever - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:47 am:
==Could it be anything other than “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly?”==
How about, “Do Not Forsake Me, Oh My Darlin’”? Dropped g and all.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:58 am:
=== this is a much easier vote===
No, it’s really not. Downstate legislators are uniformly upset at “low” residential Chicago property taxes. Those House Dem add-ons are poison pills to them.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 12:03 pm:
===Those House Dem add-ons are poison pills to them.===
I don’t disagree necessarily, but compared to voting to raise the income tax, a vote to improve Illinois’ school funding formula, even with the CPS “bailout” seems an easier road to me. Especially if that particular legislator isn’t returning. And even more especially if an override is seen as the only way to ensure local schools open on time.
- Cardsfan - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 1:11 pm:
Pardon my ignorant question, but here it is:
If there aren’t enough votes to override, and the override vote fails, can the GA bring it up again in fall veto?
If they don’t call the vote now, and nothing happens, can the GA call it for the override vote during fall veto?
- Juice - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 1:14 pm:
Cardsfan, the Senate has to act within 15 days of when the Governor’s veto was read into the journal. So if it fails they cannot bring the motion back outside that 15 day (fall veto session).
- PragmaticR - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 1:32 pm:
47th Ward’s assessment should not be discounted. If Republicans block SB1, the Democrats are going to make rural Republican districts pay a heavy price. All they have to do is wait until October when downstate schools start to close to propose a bill that is marginally worse than SB1 while claiming to be working on a compromise. I might not like it, but the Senate President and the House Speaker have a better legislative strategy than the Governor.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 1:39 pm:
===If Republicans block SB1, the Democrats are going to make rural Republican districts pay a heavy price.===
(Sigh)
The Dems don’t have to do anything but wait it out. There’s no heavier price then running out the clock if and when it fails.
It’s not a “price”, it’s not even a strategy.
It’s literally just letting process play out.
- Cardsfan - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 1:43 pm:
Interested to know how everyone here thinks this is going to play out:
Override vote (passes/fails?) or no vote called and wait it out
- PragmaticR - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 2:26 pm:
== It’s not a “price”, it’s not even a strategy. ==
Waiting for the Republicans to realize that the trap is now unavoidable is part of the strategy. This trap was created by the clause in the budget bills that prevents the distribution of education funding without a evidence-based formula. The lack of agreement on funding formula imposes more pain in rural districts downstate due to greater reliance on state education funding. This pain differential is the leverage that will likely force some Republicans to capitulate. I call that a legislative strategy.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 2:32 pm:
=== This pain differential is the leverage that will likely force some Republicans to capitulate. I call that a legislative strategy===
We knew all this… in May.
This isn’t new or 3-D chess, nor is it in any realm of pushing something already figured.
The mistake is the 71-36, not the idea of leverage of 60-30.
Your premise only works, even “after”, if part of the plan is Rauner’s ignorance to process is expected.
Nothing changes. Same pressures. If anything, helping Chicago now is even more radioactive.
- PragmaticR - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 3:43 pm:
==Override vote (passes/fails?) or no vote called and wait it out==
There will be an override vote in the Senate before August 16. Based on the previous voting history, that vote will likely succeed. If the Senate override is successful, the House will hold an override vote in late August. The outcome of the override vote in the House is more difficult to predict, but the Speaker will be sure to have a vote if only to claim that the Republicans in the House along with the Governor have blocked school funding.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 3:51 pm:
===The outcome of the override vote in the House is more difficult to predict, but the Speaker will be sure to have a vote if only to claim that the Republicans in the House along with the Governor have blocked school funding.===
Yep.
The numbers to get to 71 in the House, if it even gets to the House and the Senate gets that 36 (possible/nothing guaranteed) these are things everyone knew.
The only variable (fumble) was Rauner thinking he needed a simple majority.
Rauner will then have vetoed and/or killed every legislative mechanism to budget for this state.
The overrides saved everything but school funding, the “third rail” in budgets, and Rauner himself holds the sole responsibility.
Same as May 31st.
- SB1isCooking - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 5:50 pm:
- Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 8, 17 @ 11:18 am: “To SB 1 school supporters in GOP districts. Get together and go to them and pledge your support if they do what’s right instead of what’s political.”
The governor’s AV cannot help you. District superintendents & parents you can not sit this one out and hope for the best. Start calling or emailing your legislator now & demand their support.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Aug 9, 17 @ 12:23 am:
== The only variable (fumble) was Rauner thinking he needed a simple majority. ==
Unforced error. Rauner was thinking he could get his school funding by having just D’s (almost) vote to override. Not realizing the need for 71 boxed Rauner in. Now Rauner has to put R votes on it for it to pass … and that is a high price downstate, even with a bought and paid for party.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Aug 9, 17 @ 12:24 am:
12:23am was I. Using a different computer.
- PragmaticR - Wednesday, Aug 9, 17 @ 9:49 am:
==The overrides saved everything but school funding, the “third rail” in budgets, and Rauner himself holds the sole responsibility.==
Agree.
==Same as May 31st.==
Disagree, the strategic turning point was not May 31. The change in leverage occured in early July when the Governor opted to veto the reasonable budget bills and pragmatic Republicans in the House voted to override the Governor in response. All of the subsequent fervor concerning SB1 is due to the fact that the Governor did (does?) not understand the full magnitude of his defeat in July.