Question of the day
Tuesday, Oct 3, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* NBC 5…
Last December, he forwarded $50 million of his personal fortune to his campaign committee, signaling to others who might consider challenging him within the Republican party. A campaign spokesman insists Rauner’s petitions are on the street now and will be filed in December.
However, when asked directly about his re-election on Tuesday, Rauner said, “If you just watch and see how I’m working, the one thing I can say to you is I will never give up on working to protect Illinois, working to create a better future for the people of Illinois. I will never give up, I will never back down, never give in. Our system is broken, it’s fundamentally broken and I believe that we can have a movement, a movement of all people in Illinois.”
“It doesn’t matter what political party, doesn’t matter what background, or what part of the state, we can have a movement to dramatically change Illinois and improve our state,” the first-term governor continued. “And I believe we can do this in the coming months, I will do everything I can to help lead that movement. We need to change, our system is broken. We need dramatic change.”
Rauner added that “this is not about Democrats versus Republicans, this is about the people against a corrupt system, that is failing the people, we will change it by being strong together.”
* He also said this today and then tweeted it out…
* The Question: Can a “change” theme work for this incumbent governor? Make sure to fully explain your answer. Thanks.
- Suburban Hillbilly - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:48 pm:
The change theme works great if he runs as an independent. Listening to this governor at times he is being coy for a reason. IS this the reason? Has anyone verified the petitions are on the streets?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:49 pm:
===Has anyone verified the petitions are on the streets? ===
Yes.
- EVanstonian - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:51 pm:
No, a “change” theme doesn’t work, because a “change” theme isn’t something you can robotically stick to as it requires new and creative answers when old solutions are tried and fail. A “Madigan’s fault” theme is what he’ll go with, and yes I believe that will work.
- A guy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:51 pm:
Ordinarily the smart money would say NO. But in Illinois, I believe it’s possible.
An Executive who asks for more legislators to help “finish the job” can use that as a rallying cry for change.
In the case of this Governor, he’s going to have to hope that people haven’t paid nearly enough attention to what’s going on and hope even more that they will buy the narrative that he’s done everything he could with the leverage he’s got to move things forward. He’ll need to convince them that there is some momentum moving in the direction of reform.
It could work. It would have a much better chance if he had 80 or so Members of the GA supporting that narrative. That won’t be the case.
Best thing he’s got going for him now is JB on the other side.
- Try-4-Truth - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:51 pm:
I really don’t see how Gov. Rauner wins reelection unless the Democrats completely melt down. He barely scratched 50% in 2014 running against Pat Quinn in a huge Republican year.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see how he can pull it off, with any message.
- Boone's is Back - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:53 pm:
I think now that his negatives are down as low as MJM and polls show that he bares the most blame for the budget crisis (although its close) it’s going to be a hard theme to continue to push.
However- the more he makes it a contrast between him and MJM, the more people may buy into it. Like in 2016, it may come down to some saying “I don’t like him, but he is the lesser of two evils.”
- DarkHorse - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:54 pm:
While I disapprove of Rauner, I think the change theme might work because he certainly did try to change business as usual. Unfortunately, he just made things worse. If he had a bit of humility, said “here’s what I learned”, people might accept the idea that you sometimes need to try something more than once for (some version of it) to work.
- Perrid - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:56 pm:
In my opinion no, but then I didn’t really buy it the first time. He has proven that he will “fight the machine” but with basically no results, and ever changing demands, I just don’t seem him as credible. Regarding results, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the AFSCME lawsuits, Janus and the contract; if they both go his way he might be able to make people believe he’s not totally incompetent.
- cdog - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:57 pm:
He’s pitching himself as an independent, not democrat, not republican.
It won’t work; he’s damaged goods to everyone.
Rauner’s legacy at this point is $15 billion in payables, not enough cash flow to cover his agencies’ operations, sanctuary state promoter, publicly funded abortions, …
Who wants him? And besides, he’s proven himself to be unpredictable and undependable, at best.
Diana’s trying hard on this angle. I find it laughable.
Ya, we need a change alright.
- Steve Rogers - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:58 pm:
No. If this is not about Republicans vs Democrats then why buy the Republican party? Why not contribute to these alleged Democrats who secretly tell you they support him and his agenda. His rhetoric, while it sounds great, doesn’t match his actions. What he has really shown in the last couple years that the only change he wants is his change. No compromise, my way or the highway.
- Albany Park Patriot - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:59 pm:
I don’t know if it will work, but he has tons of money to back this notion and it’s really his only play since he has no real record of change to run on, unless you talk about negative change.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:59 pm:
Whoever runs against him needs to snatch that theme right off Rauner’s bald head.
It’s completely ridiculous for an incumbent to run for reelection pretending that he’s some kind of governing virgin.
If he said “I will never give up, never give in. We need change”, I would repeat it word for word and drive it right down his smirky face. Then I’d strip him of it.
Governors recite accomplishments, not pretend they just showed up for work.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:59 pm:
Is that a joke? No. A change theme cannot work for an incumbent governor but he will try. As I’ve said many times over the past year, Rauner has a disassociative problem in that almost three years into his governorship he’s still acting as if he has nothing to do with Springfield. He does and it won’t work.
- Will Caskey - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:02 pm:
Then-assistant professor Dan Lipinski published an expansion of his dissertation as a book examining the phenomenon where post 1994 Republicans consistently “ran against Washington” with notable success, in contrast to Democrats who embraced their tenures as working in Washington DC and those who did consistently lost at higher rates.
It was an interesting and well researched argument, even if he is a fairly terrible congressman.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:03 pm:
To the Post,
===Can a “change” theme work for this incumbent governor?===
If you’re the Dems, gosh you hope this is the theme.
“Why?”
Bret Baier asked it best… After listing failure after miserable Rauner failure, and the uncomfortable smirking Gov. Rauner with the “well, you ain’t wrong” embarrassing side tilt, Baier asked the question that makes Rich’s “QOTD” easy to answer today…
“What would be different in a Rauner second term?”
Then Rauner giggles.
A really crafty campaign that can clock that whole exchange and package it in both a :30 and :60 second spot… that will obliterate this “change” premise.
How so you ask?
“Bruce Rauner fails”
An incumbent governor with no signed budgets, destroyed social services, crippled higher education can’t be an agent of change, when Bret Baier, with a puzzled look on his one face queries the incumbent governor as what should be different.
This premise is based on fooling voters again, but this time, with a 63% disapproval and also being that sitting governor… being a change agent isn’t what Rauner is, was, could be, or even pretend to be after February 2015.
Boy I hope this is the tact.
The Baier sequence clocks out perfect, even with a quick edit, for both :30 and :60 second spots.
No way does this work. Skyhook in reverse couldn’t ask for a better beginning.
- LIberty - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:03 pm:
Sounds like another appeal to suburban women.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:07 pm:
He says he’ll never give up, but he gave up for years. He gave up on fulfilling his constitutional requirement to present a budget. He gave up on a compromise he got 90% of on our schools. He gave up on our taxpayers by running our debt and unpaid bills into billions and billions of dollars, raising our taxes.
He gave up on us.
He gave up on our children by stripping them of needed social care. Worse he gave up on our unborn children, our most vulnerable. Even worse he raised our taxes to pay for those children’ abortion.
He gave up governing.
Rauner quit on us and it’s time this quitter goes.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:08 pm:
A successful first term governor should be touting accomplishments. This looks like he’s going to continue to be unreasonable and intransigent.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:10 pm:
Does anyone believe that Bruce Rauner did not give in to the Democrats on taxes or forcing all of us to pay for abortions?
He didn’t give in during our long nightmare of an impass?
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
At the Q&A today following his flu shot, Rauner fell right back into the ruts of his campaignin’- maps, reforms, jobs, schools, broken… It was a “pull my string” moment.
He can’t time travel back to 2014 and just try to replay a TurnAround Lite. Those foolish sound bites are going to be crafted into some very biting reality messages. Four more years of Rauner- H*LL No. There’s not enough change in the world he can bring to the table anymore- his Rauner Bucks included. This looks like a “Hud” transformation attempt.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
Or, maybe he just wanted to Rick-roll the entire state https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
- anon2 - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
Change in what? The unprecedented gridlock he brought to the state? If people want no more gridlock and more years without budgets, then they can make that change by voting Rauner out of office.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:16 pm:
Well played Rich. I love a good Rick-roll, but it’s going to take a while to get that sound out of my head.
- Honeybear - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:19 pm:
“I will never give up”
True because you never tried to save
The contractors you stiffed for 10 billion
The mom and pop private social services
The higher Ed system
Your own state agencies esp. DCEO thus
Your own states economy
“Never give in”
Yea…to meeting the needs of the people of your state.
No budget
No capital plan
No honoring contracts
No stable workforce
No compromise
No loyalty to your own people
“We need change”
Yep we need Rauner the Destroyer gone
And all those who enabled and facilitated
Gone as well
This is what happens when you
Rule by perfidy
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:19 pm:
Of course the change message is powerful. Only Republicans are fighting for changes in government that the Greg Hinz article on the other post about infighting between Tom Dart and Toni Preckwinkle details.
The Preckwinkle approach of “building trust” with employees has been rewarded with record absenteeism and overtime a d a skyrocketing tax burden on middle class Cook County residents.
Every representative that voted for permanent income tax increases and no reform of government is going to find their next campaign a lot more difficult with the Rauner money getting that message out
- Fixer - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:20 pm:
I think it depends partially on if he faces a primary challenger. Even one that is fairly ineffective gives him someone else he’ll need to fend off regarding his track record.
- Flapdoodle - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:25 pm:
“Change” sparks a visceral response in voters, especially those who are instinctively negative (”whatever it is, I’m against it”). So a well played “we need change” campaign could work . . . if it weren’t for Rauner’s incredible negatives. He’s reached the point where too many people could say that he’s the change that needs making. But it’s no gimme. The Dems will have to be good if they want to take him down.
- walker - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:26 pm:
Broken government, higher taxes, and Bad Madigan could all work, if no better, clear alternative messages emerge. Way too early to tell.
- Publius - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:26 pm:
“Stronger together”. Using Hillary’s slogan? I guess he is a liberal now
- Publius - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:28 pm:
Oops my bad he said strong together not stronger together
- Baloneymous - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:31 pm:
incumbent Pappy O’Daniel ran as a reformer with them soggy bottom boys
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:31 pm:
===Of course the change message is powerful. Only Republicans are fighting for changes in government…===
How do you explain the signature on HB40, is that part of that “Republican” change?
Also, note, if you want to run on that tax hike veto, which is a great thing to run on for Rauner, it also means compete hypocrisy if Rauner claims anything outside K-12 budgetary finding as a Rauner success.
They won’t be.
Rauner vetoed the budget, same as Rauner vetoed the tax hike.
That’s some change, no budget successes for a sitting governor.
- Roadrager - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:43 pm:
===If he had a bit of humility, said “here’s what I learned”, people might accept the idea that you sometimes need to try something more than once for (some version of it) to work.===
Maybe he can borrow a couple of Rahm’s fuzzy sweaters for the TV spots.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:44 pm:
The change theme can work if it can be couched as “let me finish what I started.” The problem is that there’s very little tangible evidence that Rauner has started anything. I suspect that the make-up of the house and senator will still leave the democrats in control. So if he wasn’t able to work with Madigan, Cullerton, et al in his first term, and he’s now alienated members of his own party, how exactly does he move forward?
Slogans like “change” and “reform” are great but a standing governor needs accomplishments. This one doesn’t have much to work from.
- Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:45 pm:
Never give in.
Unless they hold the bill for a couple weeks.
Then I’ll fold like a cheap suit and end up signing it.
- Flynn's mom - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:48 pm:
It might work for another politician but not for Rauner. He has changed his mind too many times and has spewed lies on a regular basis. At this point, change just sounds like more spin on his very odd behavior.
- Publius - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:49 pm:
You could almost say this is thinking big on his part
He he also say make Illinois great again.
Politician with no substance need slick slogans
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:49 pm:
===He has changed his mind too many times===
Well, there you have it: Change [exclamation point]
- Paul S. - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:49 pm:
So, Rauner wants a “movement”; Biss wants a “movement”, Pawar wants a “movement” - and yet Bernie Sanders lost!! Please get off this stale word.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:56 pm:
What is more problematic- voting for another unbalanced budget with record 32% permanent income tax in without any reform of our business environment or government or vetoing it?
OW and others don’t seem to think there is any downside to just raising income, property and soda taxes on middle income families whose wages have stagnated.
Politicians like JB Pritzker, Mike Madigan, a majority of reps in the GA and Cook County Board think “building trust and goodwill” with government employees is paramount.
- JC is just saying... - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:02 pm:
It’s the only message he has left as all others have failed …just as his lack of leadership has failed. The bigger question will be whether the DEM opponent has a strong enough message to convince voters he’s better than Rauner.
- Whatever - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:07 pm:
I think he can make a strong run with the basic message that Madigan’s obstructionism and the AFSCME impasse are proof that we need changes in his turnaround agenda. The same people who bought into the turnaround agenda and the claim that he was an outsider before will continue to believe. The fact that he is the incumbent and now has a record will hurt him with supporters who are pro-life or who really want balanced budgets and pay enough attention to see that he hasn’t proposed any serious spending cuts, but that won’t tarnish his “change” message itself.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:10 pm:
– Can a “change” theme work for this incumbent governor? Make sure to fully explain your answer.–
With some of the people, all of the time. Whether it will be enough, I think we’ll have a better idea in a year or so.
- Dr Kilovolt - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:10 pm:
===Or, maybe he just wanted to Rick-roll the entire state===
First thing I thought when I read the ad.
- NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:12 pm:
Nope, he’s toast. He burned bridges with the Repubs who wanted change and the Dems don’t want change (no one in power ever wants change) so why would they vote for him. I agree with his diagnosis but he’s not the guy that will bring it. Too bad for IL since that means yet more control buy the boys and girls of the Illinois Democratic party who have, more than anyone else, brought this state to its knees.
- We'll See - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:12 pm:
So the workshop/duct tape commercial is out, replaced by the Gov digging in the couch-flipping cushions all while telling us “I will never give up, never give in. We need change.
- JoanP - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:24 pm:
I don’t think this helps him.
Change from what?
The current administration? That, obviously, loses him votes.
The previous one? Well, he said that’s what he was going to do THIS term. He’s had four years. Accomplished nothing. Why would anyone think the next term would be different?
- TrumpsSmallHands - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:26 pm:
How can Rauner pretend to have any credibility to market our state to prospective employers, to Amazon for example, if the first thing out of his mouth every time he talks about Illinois is “Our system is broken, it’s fundamentally broken…..”?
Which is exactly why he can’t use that stupid slogan as an incumbent, he owns the broken now.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:27 pm:
As the Coen Brothers observed in O Brother, Where Art Thou?, some campaign gimmicks won’t work when you’re the incumbent.
– MrJM
- Retired Educator - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:34 pm:
No, he has proven himself to be a spinner of tall tales, and he is not taken seriously anymore. He has spun reality, fabricated data, and outright lied to those who want him to succeed, He has zero credibility and any change he proposes will be suspect from the start. Being loyal to him, only gets you fired, and replaced. What will change in another four year term? Even heavy hitters in his own party, are now running for cover.
- taxrate62 - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:43 pm:
Change? Seriously? Rauner has adopted MJM’s playbook by the distribution of cash or else policy. Either play his way or you will be primaried. Even the GOP is tired of this game.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:49 pm:
Sure seems like Pritzker’s message isn’t about change. Very unhappy voters out there, looking for a change, beyond voting Rauner out of office.
- siriusly - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:54 pm:
He’s just going to go “harder” than he did last time.
2014 he was the candidate you could have a beer with
2018 - screw this let’s do shots!
2014 - Bruce doesn’t have a social agenda.
2018 - my agenda is your agenda, don’t like it? Run against me.
2014 - Pat Quinn failed
2018 - I failed better!
- union thug gramma - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:55 pm:
The only real “change” I’ve seen is the cost of campaigning has gone through the roof…all the way up to at least Sears Tower height.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:56 pm:
–In the case of this Governor, he’s going to have to hope that people haven’t paid nearly enough attention to what’s going on and hope even more that they will buy the narrative that he’s done everything he could with the leverage he’s got to move things forward. He’ll need to convince them that there is some momentum moving in the direction of reform. –
Waitress, I’ll take meaningless croutons and meaningless baco-bits on the side with that meaningless word salad.
Must be tough “desperately raising money” to replace all that money Rauner hosed Catholic Charities out of, like you’ve said you were doing, Pope Guy, after Rauner betrayed you on HB40.
I kid. You never lifted a finger for Catholic Charities.
- Jocko - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:00 pm:
Change? How’s that different from Shaking (things) Up?
I’d rather Bruce take a page from The Simpsons and say, “We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas!”
https://tinyurl.com/y8dxcobb
- DuPage Bard - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:01 pm:
It’s fitting all these campaigns talking about movements. My best one is at the beginning of the day then I flush it away. Sounds like the candidates.
- zatoichi - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:03 pm:
There is not much to give up or give in when you have not actually done anything. “We need a change”. Yes, but not in his favor.
- Chicago 20 - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:28 pm:
The words “change” and “reform” must poll well.
Rauner will have to spend big to sway the public’s opinion on what “change” means.
The “change” that Illinois really needs is a Governor who wants to do the job instead of obstruction and constantly pushing an extreme ideological right wing agenda.
- Huh? - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:30 pm:
“It’s completely ridiculous for an incumbent to run for reelection pretending that he’s some kind of governing virgin.”
Why is this a ridiculous idea? It isn’t like he has done any governing since his inauguration.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:40 pm:
Yes, he can win reelection with a change theme … if it is properly focused.
Rauner: We need to change the Speaker of the House. We need to change the union control of Springfield. We need to change the income tax back to what it was before the increase. We need to change the culture of lazy State employees. We need to change the tax and spend culture of the General Assembly. And the only way we do all this is by electing more Republicans (aka bought and paid for Raunerites) to the legislature along with a Republican Governor (me) who can work with a Republican majority to effect change.
That will be his pitch in a 6 sound bite nutshell. And it will work because, as long as the schools are open and license plates get renewed, the majority of voters don’t think about State Government until about 6 weeks before the election. And then the person with the loudest / most persistent / best (?) message usually wins. The rest of the time the only people paying attention are the ones in an echo chamber like this blog.
And, yes, I really am that cynical or, as I prefer it, realistic.
- Rabid - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:41 pm:
lipstick on the turnaround agenda, gov. junk changed our bond rating under his failed administration
- RNUG - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:58 pm:
Adding … The campaign will need a positive side also. Look for the theme to be Illinois Can Be Great Again.
- igotgotgotgotnotime - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 6:53 pm:
“the system is broken”
Never saw that comin’.
- the Cardinal - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 7:45 am:
He doesnt have to “give up or give in” that will be decided for him Nov 6 2018. He was painted into a corner by political experts and the amateuristic staff couldnt figure out a way out for him. Being a policy wonk doenst always work when real life issues walk in the door. Meanwhile a whole bunch of the rest of us are going to pay for others life style choices.