Ives gears up, Walsh waits in wings
Monday, Oct 23, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
A Wheaton Republican lawmaker is actively considering a primary challenge of Gov. Bruce Rauner, saying she doesn’t expect him to win a general election contest next year.
Three-term Rep. Jeanne Ives has been courting social conservative groups and working to get her name out in settings far beyond her west suburban district in advance of a potential exploratory committee to determine if she can line up financing to take on Rauner, a former private equity investor.
* NBC 5…
Ives is looking into forming an exploratory committee, sources said, adding that she would likely run if she could raise $1 million.
While Ives is among the candidates that the anti-abortion groups are considering, Caprio said there have been a few other names floated and the coalition hopes to make an official determination at its next meeting in November.
* She should listen to Scott Reeder…
Ives is contemplating a primary run against Gov. Bruce Rauner after he signed a measure allowing for taxpayer-funded elective abortions. Some folks think the underlying issue here is abortion. It’s not.
Rauner signed the measure after promising Republicans in the Legislature, multiple Catholic bishops and the public that he wouldn’t.
Rauner’s supporters knew he was pro-choice when they elected him. But they didn’t know he was a liar.
Integrity matters.
* Back to the Tribune…
Ives, however, is undeterred. “I’ll be honest with you: I honestly think Rauner could spend his entire fortune and not redeem his reputation,” she told the southern Illinois radio station. […]
Even so, several GOP colleagues say privately that Ives is not among the most collegial members of the General Assembly — a trait she may have acknowledged when she was asked on Downstate radio about the exodus of lawmakers that have resigned or are not seeking re-election next year.
“To many of them I say, ‘Good riddance. You know, your policies have created the problems we have right now. So, bye bye,’” she said. “Let’s find some new blood. That’s OK with me. It’s important to turn over people.”
* Meanwhile…
While the right-wing firebrand was not in attendance at Saturday’s meeting, former Congressman Joe Walsh is also considering throwing his hat in the ring for governor – but only as an Independent. […]
But Walsh is leaning towards waiting until after the primary, Caprio said, to see if Rauner is able to emerge victorious even without a large swath of conservative support.
If the billionaire governor succeeds, Walsh may at that point enter the race as an Independent – drawing both votes and perhaps even the backing of Republican organizations away from the GOP governor.
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:47 am:
It’s hard for me to imagine that a figure as fundamentally silly as Walsh could garner even the small amount of support needed to be a spoiler, but then again, we live in the era of Trump.
- old time golfer - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:51 am:
With Ives, Walsh and Cleveland waiting in the wings no wonder Rauner seems to be in good spirits…
- Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:52 am:
“I’ll be honest with you”
That has got to be one of the dumbest things a politician or anyone else can say. If she doesn’t preface her remarks with that, is she being dishonest? Why the need to stress you are being honest? Isn’t that assumed?
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:55 am:
I won’t vote for Rauner under any circumstanses. I will support any primary challenger against him and if he is nominated again, any independent that would hurt his chances.
Rauner must go.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:56 am:
Rauner will not win if there is a real conservative running.
- Iggy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:57 am:
musket boy and racist girl, do not have a chance. if either them decide to run it will only strengthen Rauner’s appeal to the moderates and flip floppers. Dems should be praying that no one steps into this one.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 9:58 am:
If “that” Joe Walsh is the 3rd party candidate and Jeanne Ives also runs in the Primary, how much more help can Bruce Rauner get?
Rauner gets to see where he’s “GOP Weak” in a real dry run and gets Walsh to pivot off of as the “Trumpian-Mold” candidate. I dunno if this has been thought thru. Rauner will make Dem Nominee “too liberal - Madigan” and Rauner isn’t right wing worry to moderates with HB40 and other Dem type social agenda successes to point to as to where Bruce isn’t Walsh and there’s no difference on Social Agenda issues.
This all helps Rauner. These are gifts.
Also, is Ives willing to give up her seat for the opportunity to tilt windmills against Rauner and his $70 million?
Ives is as hard core Right as someone can get, so If Ives runs, it will give Rauner that dry run and measure with ballots where Rauner needs to improve with GOP voters in November like I said, while losing her seat to help Rauner succeed in the end. There’s more downside, then add in losing her seat.
Ives and Walsh will be helping Rauner. They just don’t know it.
The social agenda inoculations tell me so.
Rauner is Right of any of the Dem Nominees, less the Social Agenda they both “share”, and Center to Walsh, Center-Right to Ives with “Madigan” as the glue to it all.
Total disaster if one or both do this.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:00 am:
===“I’ll be honest with you”===
“And you know what?”
Rauner’s phony tick that claims the next thing he says is honest.
Ok.
- What, really? - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:14 am:
== But Walsh is leaning towards waiting until after the primary, Caprio said, to see if Rauner is able to emerge victorious even without a large swath of conservative support. If the billionaire governor succeeds, Walsh may at that point enter the race as an Independent ==
Walsh helped elect Rauner. Caprio wrote an open letter on Illinois Review telling conservatives to ignore Rauner’s history. This is the “conservative movement’s” house of cards. Who is going to call these people out?
- what, really? - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:15 am:
== Ives and Walsh will be helping Rauner. They just don’t know it. ==
They will be helping Rauner and I beg to differ, they know it. These candidates are propped up by Rauner’s conservative coalition. Let’s not be cute about this.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:18 am:
===They will be helping Rauner and I beg to differ, they know it.===
Hmm.
“Jeanne, we want you to give up your seat for Bruce”
Not seeing that as enticing enough or believable as Ives has never seemed someone willing to give up her own climb to help anyone, let alone Rauner.
- SOIL M - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:18 am:
As much as I would love the chance to vote against Rauner in the primary, and agree that he has to go. I also believe that he and his bought and paid for Raunerites have damaged the GOP to where it will not be possible for any Republican to win in the general. Even if he is off the ticket he is still part of tye brand, and people will want to change brands.
- cdog - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:38 am:
This is Occam’s Razor. Ives just needs to be on the ticket.
With a little PR that Rauner is a liar,
Rauner’s record defeats Rauner.
- l - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:57 am:
The abortion issue in Illinois is now settled. To run on it is to lose.
Rauner’s credibility is a winning issue. Tie that to his sheer ineffectiveness and a centrist Republican with some cash could beat him in the primary.
Ives has no chance, nor dos Walsh.
- Honeybadger - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:01 am:
Sanguinetti/Ives 2022?
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:02 am:
==Rauner gets to see where he’s “GOP Weak” in a real dry run and gets Walsh to pivot off of as the “Trumpian-Mold” candidate.==
I guess the first could help, if not for the second; knowing who in his own coaltion he’s weak with doesn’t help if he’s going to “pivot off of them” in the general election.
The second, meanwhile, is all downside. Rauner needs Trump voters to win.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:02 am:
Rauner can lose the primary.
He depends upon squishy ILGOPers and they will assume he’ll win without their votes. Ives actually has a chance with support from solid ILGOP voters who believe Rauner will lose anyway and would rather lose with a real ILGOP candidate than fake Rauner.
Walsh and Ives might look like flakes to the political nerds on this site, but both will be heard for the first time by many. Don’t write them off. Yet.
- Depressed in DuPage - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:07 am:
I’ve watched this movie before, the one where the GOP self-destructs. The plot is, a moderate Republican incumbent is knocked off by a right-winger, then goes down in the general election to a moderate Dem. The moderate suburban women will just not vote in the general election for the far right, GOP purists who tend to win GOP primary elections. (I’m not saying Rauner is a moderate, but compared to Ives or Walsh he is.)
- What, really? - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:09 am:
== Not seeing that as enticing enough or believable as Ives has never seemed someone willing to give up her own climb to help anyone, let alone Rauner. ==
Uihlein’s money has been sufficiently enticing for many of Ives/Walsh’s ilk.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:22 am:
===Uihlein’s money has been sufficiently enticing for many of Ives/Walsh’s ilk.===
To give up a safe House seat to primary a sitting governor.
Can you cite that ilk that fits what Ives is doing?’
Thanks.
===The second, meanwhile, is all downside. Rauner needs Trump voters to win===
Trump voters won’t, obviously, vote for the Dem, and Walsh will be discredited by Rauner’s millions like he’s never faced before.
Rauner needs suburban collar county women. That and to dismantle the Dem Nominee and Walsh and claim the Center with a Dem Social Agenda.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:25 am:
===To give up a safe House seat to primary a sitting governor===
Lots of people are doing it this year. Dan Biss, Litesa Wallace and Juliana Stratton to name just three.
She hasn’t made much of an impact and she doesn’t seem to enjoy the job.
And almost everyone I know who leaves the legislative life seems to have a better life.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:27 am:
===They will be helping Rauner and I beg to differ, they know it.===
==This all helps Rauner. These are gifts.==
Perhaps, but I don’t know if I can agree that this translates to a win. For Rauner to win the general in an overwhelmingly blue state, using this logic one would have to assume that three things will definitely happen:
a) That some Dems and all independents will completely ignore everything else Rauner has done in his first term and vote for him because “he hates Madigan”, he’s not as crazy as Jeanne Ives, signing HB40, criminal justice reform and signing the sanctuary state bill.
b) that conservative Republicans will hold their noses and still vote for Rauner come November 2018 regardless of his lies to them about HB40 and his signing of the sanctuary state bill. This would also happen after Ives or whoever spends 4 months hammering Rauner on these points over and over before the primary.
And c) Dem turnout will be as low or lower than in 2014.
The first is improbable but not impossible. Just from comments here and on the IPI Facebook page the second one seems highly unlikely, and this thinking also assumes every Illinois conservative will sell out their principles for four more years of Bruce Rauner. There is no way the third comes to pass, unless the blizzard of the century occurs in Chicago on Election Day.
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:30 am:
==Trump voters won’t, obviously, vote for the Dem==
But they might not vote for Rauner, is the thing. Either ’cause they vote for Walsh or ’cause they stay home. Either one is bad for him.
==Rauner needs suburban collar county women.==
They’re the “winning margin” voters, but not the base voters. Rauner needs both.
And with no accomplishments and Trump in the WH, Rauner can’t assume that he’ll pick up subruban women just by being less crazy than some other members of his party.
- Honeybadger - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:39 am:
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:25 am:
===To give up a safe House seat to primary a sitting governor===
Lots of people are doing it this year. Dan Biss, Litesa Wallace and Juliana Stratton to name just three.
She hasn’t made much of an impact and she doesn’t seem to enjoy the job.
And almost everyone I know who leaves the legislative life seems to have a better life.
Most usually go back to private life or become lobbyists, right Rich?
Somehow, I cannot see anybody hiring Jeanne Ives to lobby on their behalf, especially since she is not that well-liked.
- What, really? - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:40 am:
== To give up a safe House seat to primary a sitting governor. Can you cite that ilk that fits what Ives is doing?’ ==
Rainer’s dough was an incentive for Ken Dunkin. Other than cash, what was the upside? How many Raunerites left their seats at the Governor’s request? Took appointments, lobbying positions. All sorts of goodies for those that comply. Doesn’t Uline bankroll Walsh’s radio show? Ives doesn’t like the state rep job anyway so you’ve said. She has plenty of incentives to do what she is told. The question is who is telling her to do what and why.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:44 am:
===Lots of people are doing it this year. Dan Biss, Litesa Wallace and Juliana Stratton to name just three.
She hasn’t made much of an impact and she doesn’t seem to enjoy the job.
And almost everyone I know who leaves the legislative life seems to have a better life===
Good points, let me rephrase…
===To give up a safe House seat to primary a sitting governor===
“To give up a safe House seat to primary a sitting governor where the likelihood of winning has a low upside”
Those like Biss, Wallace, Stratton, they all may have a better shot than Ives getting out of a primary(?)
The gig as a member of the Illinois House minority isn’t all that great these days and dealing with a governor of your own party who not only owns the caucuses, but double crosses them, to their face.
I’ve said I totally believe the anger. That’s not phony. The hedging of others not named Ives is the most disappointing.
Quality of your career and life are factors.
If this is her way to go, out with a crusade, it is one way to go. I just see Ives more of a long term crusader. It’s so toxic, I can see that point too.
===…they vote for Walsh or ’cause they stay home. Either one is bad for him===
It is bad, but Walsh has yet to face the media onslaught with that oppo on him, with far more scrutiny, thru Rauner ads then he may have bargained on.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:45 am:
===Rainer’s dough was an incentive for Ken Dunkin. Other than cash, what was the upside?===
Ask Ken Dunkin.
- The Way I See It - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:47 am:
Here is the thing I don’t get: it wasn’t like Rauner won the R primary in a landslide last time around. Where are the credible R politicians? Rauner has money, but is far from unbeatable.
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:52 am:
==It is bad, but Walsh has yet to face the media onslaught with that oppo on him==
This is where we get back to what I said above; I can’t believe that a clown like Walsh could even get enough votes to be a spoiler.
But I said the same thing about Trump. There’s just a segment of voters out there now, mostly on the Republican side, who reflexively back the most objectionable candidate on the ballot.
- Texas Red - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:57 am:
Don’t underestimate the conservative Evangelical and Catholics who vote for life. On this issue they will become single-minded and they come from both parties. Since HB40 there is a palpable movement against Rauner. Having an individual’s tax dollars directly pay for abortion is a game changer and no amount of money will sway these folks. All Ives or others need to do is make the case for life and they get these votes.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 12:07 pm:
===This is where we get back to what I said above; I can’t believe … Walsh could even get enough votes to be a spoiler===
But Walsh does allow Rauner someone to point to and say he (Rauner) is the better choice and the Extreme Right is after him (Rauner)
Can Rauner then thread the needle with true conservatives either not voting or voting against him, but pick up Dems that like the Rauner social issues but buy into “Madigan” at a clip that makes Rauner viable?
Walsh takes one end, Rauner paints the Dem at the other end, tries to sprinkle “Madigan”…
It’s better than Rauner trying to go this one on one(?)
- Ghost - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 12:27 pm:
This seems a bit delusional…. does the GOP seriously think the problem with Rauner winning in Illinois is that he is not conservative enough? Because Illinois statewide races by extreme right conservatives draw all the votes???
- Pundent - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 12:27 pm:
=It is bad, but Walsh has yet to face the media onslaught with that oppo on him, with far more scrutiny, thru Rauner ads then he may have bargained on.=
I don’t think you understand Walsh. This is what he craves. Media scrutiny is the only thing that’s kept him relevant.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 12:31 pm:
===I don’t think you understand Walsh. This is what he craves===
I understand. Which is why I asked does Walsh this could backfire and help Rauner in the end?
===Media scrutiny is the only thing that’s kept him relevant.===
Yep. And while Walsh’s alleged relevancy is then fed, Rauner can shred what is left of Walsh’s reputation, in places.
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 12:33 pm:
Ives can give up her sear run state wide for governor and not win. She becomes evenmore of a right wing hero finds funding and connections. Then in 2018 she takes on Cronin for DuPage County Board President. It will happen
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 12:39 pm:
Guess Walsh doesn’t have time to get going in this thing for the primary when he’s more immediately needed to rally attacks on a gold star widow on twitter.
- Boone's is Back - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 1:03 pm:
Joe Walsh… please run…. please, please run
- Lucky Pierre - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 1:09 pm:
True conservatives will not vote for JB Pritzker or any other Democrat for Governor no matter what they say 13 months before the election.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 1:14 pm:
===True conservatives will not vote for JB Pritzker or any other Democrat for Governor no matter what they say 13 months before the election===
“True conservatives will not vote for Bruce Rauner or any other phony like Bruce Rauner for Governor no matter what they say 13 months before the election, but phony cafeteria conservatives like Jim Oberwies and Jason Barickman will say signing a bill you said was too liberal for “California” allowing taxpayer funded abortions still might be ok, but it will be too much for real conservatives.”
Better
- Arsenal - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 1:28 pm:
==True conservatives will not vote for JB Pritzker or any other Democrat for Governor no matter what they say 13 months before the election.==
Of course not. The question is if they’re honest, or if they’ll vote for Rauner. The two are mutually exclusive.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 1:34 pm:
Reeder must not have been paying attention.
Rauner lied about a lot of things before signing HB40. Integrity didn’t seem to an issue to Ives and the other allegedly “conservative” GOPers who enabled him to add $12B in unpaid bills, renege on contracts and gut MAPP, public universities and community colleges.
So I’m thinking abortion is the underlying issue.
Plus, like Caprio said, Rauner fails to vocally support Trump, the living embodiment of conservative, Christian, family values.
In some circles.
- The Captain - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 1:56 pm:
In Illinois has an incumbent Governor stood for re-election but lost the primary before? I can’t recall one but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened before. It would make for a completely fascinating dynamic if it did happen this March. Think about how crazy session and the budget have been for the last few years and then try to game out what would actually happen next May if Rauner is an angry, 9 month lame duck?
- Conservative Veteran - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:17 pm:
I hope that Gov. Rauner will lose his primary to a conservative. If he wins his primary and ex-Congressman Joe Walsh runs, I hope that he’ll run for the Constitution Party. That race will have at least five candidates, and someone could win with 21%.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:28 pm:
TC, Dan Walker.
- anonymous - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:37 pm:
In the current political climate, anyone with a twitter account and one mega-wealthy supporter is a viable candidate . Neither Ives nor Walsh should be summarily dismissed.
- The Way I See It - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:58 pm:
If it gets Joe Walsh off the radio, I’d donate to his campaign, just so long as he never robocalled my house. The sound of the guy’s voice makes my blood pressure go up.
- The Captain - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:14 pm:
Thanks Wordslinger, I didn’t realize he lost the primary.
- Ghost - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:15 pm:
Walsh will run the Rocky Mountain way, he has a pretty Rocky chance after all….
- VanillaMan - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 7:59 pm:
==True conservatives will not vote for JB Pritzker or any other Democrat for Governor no matter what they say 13 months before the election.==
Speak for yourself.
What Rauner did on SB40 is like going to the doctor who reveals to you that you picked up an STD from your spouse and when you ask about it back home, they tell you that they warned you before the wedding that they weren’t a virgin.
Pro-choicers don’t get it. What Rauner did was a deal breaker. A permanent one. If you don’t get it. then you’re the one who needs to go back to school.
Geez LP, have you guts at all? Everything isn’t political. Good thing you weren’t an abolitionist or you’d be supporting Stephen Douglas over Lincoln. Geez.