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PPP Cook County poll: Kennedy a close second, Biss a distant third
Monday, Mar 5, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * PPP poll taken February 28 through March 1 of 553 likely Democratic primary voters in Cook County…
Keep in mind that this was taken right at the very beginning of Pritzker’s new TV ad campaign against Kennedy. Maybe Pritzker needs to tap the brakes a bit harder though? * Check out the racial crosstabs…  3 percent?
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- TominChicago - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:38 pm:
Who are the “other”?
- Red fish blue fish - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:39 pm:
Small sample, but two things are clear
Kennedy is coming up strong and
AA voters will decide the election
- Almost the Weekend - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:41 pm:
Rich what is the point of doing a poll only in Cook County, not including the collar counties? Don’t understand what the function of this poll was.
- Fax Machine - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:41 pm:
Is this another Kaegi poll? If so what’s that topline?
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:43 pm:
I like how every poll I’ve seen always breaks down the percentages by race on the democratic side.. But somehow they always fail to do this on the republican side where Rauner has barely any support from the African American community. Over 90% of his support is from white people.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:44 pm:
===what is the point of doing a poll only in Cook County===
I didn’t commission it. These tend to be polls conducted about other races.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:45 pm:
I think JB would be just fine with a narrow victory in Cook County given his strength in the rest of the state. Indeed, that’s exactly where it looked like things would end up once the field was set.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:47 pm:
Pretty fascinating that a name brand like Kennedy is in 3rd place with white voters.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:47 pm:
==Over 90% of his support is from white people.==
The sample size of African Americans voting in the Republican Primary would be way too small to draw any useful conclusions.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:48 pm:
==who are “other”?==
I am assuming people who are from Asian continental countries, or are multi-racial. I know that I always am perplexed by the race question considering that one of my parents is Latino and the other is Irish.
- lake county democrat - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:48 pm:
Would not have guessed Kennedy and Pritzker would be tied in Cook County *but-for* the African-American vote. I’ll say it again: in about a week, whoever is clearly in 3rd place should drop out. Probably won’t happen but their legacy will be that of a spoiler.
- BC - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:49 pm:
I’ve received two mail pieces at my south side home from J.B. this week attacking Kennedy over declining African American enrollment at U of I.
- Concerned Dem - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:50 pm:
Since Kennedy has virtually ignored the rest of the state in the last several months his only hope is to run up the score on Prtizker in Cook County… as long as Prtizker stays ahead there Kennedy has no shot. If these numbers are indicative of the larger picture it looks like Daniel’s campaign has Biss’ded into pieces.
- Real - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:50 pm:
The sample size of African Americans voting in the Republican Primary would be way too small to draw any useful conclusions.
-I’m sure. We already know Rauner is good. We see who keeps putting him in office. If we decided the vote he would never be Governor as he does not deserve to be.
- Fax Machine - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:52 pm:
Biss is only at 20% for Cook County 18-45 voters.
That is not how you replicate the Bernie playbook
- Hiawatha - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:55 pm:
Those who said JB was a foregone conclusion seem to have spoken prematurely. This race appears wide open. A lot of movement going on here!
- Real - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:56 pm:
The sample size of African Americans voting in the Republican Primary would be way too small to draw any useful conclusions.
- Yeah but they should still release poll data that shows 1% or less of his support came from black voters and over 90% from white voters. Just as they are showing it on the dem side they need to show it on the republican side.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 2:57 pm:
So after the barrage of Rauner negative spots with the “least offensive” tape, Pritzker remains with a 12-point lead among black voters at 45%.
Maybe Rauner’s whiz kids can calculate the ROI on that.
- Real - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:01 pm:
So after the barrage of Rauner negative spots with the “least offensive” tape, Pritzker remains with a 12-point lead among black voters at 45%.
Maybe Rauner’s whiz kids can calculate the ROI on that
-As I said weeks ago those tapes won’t hurt Pritzker much with AA voters. We know it came from someone who is doing damage to the AA community while in office so a 10 year old phone conversation will not make us vote for Rauner.
- Anon0091 - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:08 pm:
Daniel Biss is at 3% in the African American community and think they still have a chance to win? Can some Biss supporter please tell me how Biss wins the primary with no African American support?
- Mike - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:12 pm:
Daniel Biss is trying to emulate Bernie Sanders and he is garnering similar demographics. Horrible numbers from Cook where the vast majority of Democratic primary voters will vote.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:13 pm:
–Can some Biss supporter please tell me how Biss wins the primary with no African American support?–
Grist for the Anybody-But-JB crowd to squeeze Biss to drop out, to give Kennedy a one-on-one shot.
But then again, voting’s already going on and the ballot’s set.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:16 pm:
==That is not how you replicate the Bernie playbook==
And it’s particularly dicey because Cook County is Biss’ home (though I suspect he’s got a strong base in Lake County, too).
==Maybe Rauner’s whiz kids can calculate the ROI on that==
I take your point, but it’s easy to imagine JB over 50% with African Americans right now if not for that tape.
- micheal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:17 pm:
Keep going kennedy. I knew you would come through
- Hiawatha - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:19 pm:
With Biss’ endorsement, Kennedy could definitely win the primary…and have a very good chance in the general election.
- jake the awsome - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:23 pm:
what is interseting is how kennedy went from first to second to third to second. and might be on his way to first
- Downstater - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:25 pm:
Kennedy is popular is this part of illinois. Many people here think he has the most integrity
- Real - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:28 pm:
Rauner will lose to Pritzker, Kennedy, or any of the dems. Only thing is he has less dirt on Kennedy.
- Nacho - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:30 pm:
If that 3% is even close to accurate (and in any case he’s consistently polling single-digit AA support) then Biss has succeeded in becoming the Bernie candidate, just not in the way he wanted.
- paddyrollingstone - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:30 pm:
Mike - “Daniel Biss is trying to emulate Bernie Sanders and he is garnering similar demographics. Horrible numbers from Cook where the vast majority of Democratic primary voters will vote.”
My thoughts exactly and didn’t Sanders actually lose?
- ILDemVoter - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:34 pm:
==who are “other”?==
Also-people who choose not to identify with a particular race when asked.
I think the question comes to who shows up at the polls; likely voters is great before the era of Trump, but all previous elections have indicated voter turnout (even for primaries) is way up nationwide.
- Ron - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:34 pm:
Republicans almost never get much African American support. Nothing new to that.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:37 pm:
==My thoughts exactly and didn’t Sanders actually lose?==
Yes, but if Biss duplicated his 48% he’d win.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:40 pm:
==With Biss’ endorsement, Kennedy could definitely win the primary==
And with Kennedy’s endorsement, Biss could easily win the primary.
You see the issue?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:41 pm:
===With Biss’ endorsement, Kennedy could definitely win the primary===
Doesn’t usually work that way.
- Grand Avenue - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:42 pm:
Downstate is hard to crack for Kennedy or Biss. A large percentage of the downstate Democratic vote is union members and unions have been communicating to their members that JB is their candidate.
- Armory - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:47 pm:
I think you have to take this poll with a grain of salt. PPP uses two methods to gather survey results: Robo polls that can only reach landlines and online panels.
The devil is in the details with this poll. Among races Trump has his highest approval rating amoung Latinx voters 34% and amoung ages is performing best with 18-45 at 16%, which is counter to basically every poll. And these are Democratic Primary voters, in liberal coo county. Not buying it.
There is a lot of volatility in the race as no one has locked it down. It is going to be like watch a great horse race down the stretch.
- Frank - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:50 pm:
This poll also has Trump’s approval rating at 34% among Cook county Latinx Democratic Primary voters.
Not sure it is the most accurate poll.
- Truthteller - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:58 pm:
If Biss and Kennedy have difficulty in responding to Pritzker’s mild attacks, how would they withstand an onslaught from Rauner.
Dems would need to raise and spend a lot of money to protect them, money that Pritzker has to protect himself.
If there’s a reason why Democrats shouldn’t let Pritzker pay to accomplish what should be the #1 priority - beating Rauner- I’ve not heard it.
Nothing in the Biss and Kennedy records to take a chance on them
- sincere - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 3:58 pm:
This is a cook county only poll. Given that nobody other than JB has anything going on downstate, this is great news for team pritzker. Based on this, I predict JB wins on election day by 15 to 18 points.
- Amalia - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:00 pm:
hmmm. St. Patrick’s Day is coming.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:01 pm:
sincere that is an exaguration, he probly beat his nearest challenger kennedy by 4 to 6 points
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:03 pm:
Kennedy is surging. Time for Biss, Daiber, Tio, and Dr Marshall to bow out and support Kennedy
- LXB - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:10 pm:
What a weird poll. Polling the gov primary just in Cook makes sense as an add-on to a poll of a county office. Why poll it on its own?
- Casper - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:12 pm:
Black voters have a better BS meter than most. And Biss sets it off from a mile away
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:12 pm:
===what is interseting is===
What I find “interesting” is that you’re treating my website like your personal Facebook page. Stop spamming my comments.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:14 pm:
===Why poll it on its own? ===
Who said it was?
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 4:23 pm:
==How did that work out for HRC, when union bosses asked the rank-and-file to vote for Her?==
Well, she won both elections in IL.
- Red fish blue fish - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 5:12 pm:
Biss could drop out now, end on a high note, and secure his position to replace Jan Schakowsky.
I’m in agreement with downstater and real– Kennedy has integrity, minimal risk of bad oppo reports.
- Hiawatha - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 5:31 pm:
I agree. Voting on the issue of integrity in the Democratic primary makes sense. It will position the Party for a strong run in the general election. Kennedy comes out on top.
- Frank - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 5:37 pm:
Biss is 40 there is no way he is dropping out. Win or lose there is nothing but upside for him to stay in the race and build his statewide profile and donor base for a future run.
All the candidates are pot committed at this point. No one is dropping out.
- 47 - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 6:17 pm:
This race will come down to whomever Ameya Pawar endorses. Wise to hold it back until the end when it counts.
- Barrington - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 6:23 pm:
The math does not add up to 31% for Kennedy. I can’t get more than 29.5%. Also it seems that all the republicans that vote in the democratic primary will vote for Kennedy. This survey is really odd in that there seems to be a high number of respondents whom did not identify as male or female. That is the first rime I have seen this.
- E Pluribus Unum - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 6:31 pm:
We need to hear from Pritzker now that he will support Kennedy after the Primary. Not sure Pritzker has the character in him to do this but let’s see if he can be what he says he is.
- Mike - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 6:39 pm:
== We need to hear from Pritzker now that he will support Kennedy after the Primary. Not sure Pritzker has the character in him to do this but let’s see if he can be what he says he is. ==
I could see JB endorsing the eventual nominee in the long shot chance that it’s not him, but I can’t see Kennedy or Biss returning the favor at least immediately.
- Frank - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 8:11 pm:
Biss is a team player. He will get on board. Not sure the other two would.
- Mike - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 9:20 pm:
== Biss is a team player. He will get on board. Not sure the other two would. ==
Eh. They should clear contempt towards him in the two debates I saw, especially when they were tasked with saying nice things to each other. JB is the only one of the three to play along.
- Mike - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 9:20 pm:
*showed
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 9:31 pm:
Frank - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 8:11 p
Mr. Pension theft Biss is only a team player at being a thief
- The Snowman - Monday, Mar 5, 18 @ 10:02 pm:
I agree with Real. Rauner v. Pritzker, Bruce has a super small chance to pull it off. Rauner v. Kennedy, no chance at all.
34% Hispanic Democrats approve of the President? I don’t know, Frank, maybe that’s not too far off. Most everyone is seeing tax cuts in their pay checks…maybe even a bonus from their employer.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 8:55 am:
kennedy ad with all the endorsements is catchy, but he has Chicago, suburban, and downstate endorsements. why not say that?
- Eire17 - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 9:03 am:
Kennedy wins primary