* I went over some of this poll with subscribers earlier today. Keep in mind that the proponents used both a Republican and a Democratic pollster. The 20 House and Senate districts polled were mainly in the suburbs, with three Downstate districts. Polling memo…
To: Interested Parties
From: Randall Gutermuth (American Viewpoint) and Jason McGrath (GBA Strategies)
Re: Recent Survey Findings in Key IL Legislative Districts Regarding Gun Dealer Licensing Act (SB 1657)
Date: April 11, 2018
The following outlines the key findings from a survey of key State House and State Senate districts commissioned by the Illinois Gun Violence Prevention Coalition and conducted by the bi-partisan team of American Viewpoint and GBA Strategies regarding the state regulation of gun dealers.
These findings conclude that there is widespread bi-partisan support for requiring firearms dealers to be licensed by the state. This includes widespread support from gun owners.
“As you may know, recently there was a proposal passed by the state legislature to require firearms dealers to become licensed by the state of Illinois. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this proposal?”
• Across these districts, 71% of voters favor the proposal, with only 23% opposing it. Intensity is much greater on the supporting side, with 52% strongly favoring the proposal and 16% strongly opposing it.
• Nearly two-thirds of Republicans favor the proposal (65%-30%) as do an overwhelming majority of voters in GOP-held Senate (71%-22%) and House (73%-22%) districts.
• The key swing voting bloc of Independents favor this proposal 68%-25%, including Independent women favoring it by a 79%-16% margin. Support from Independent women is nearly as high as it is among Democrats overall (80%-13%).
• There is also little difference seen by geography. For example, voters in the downstate districts favor the proposal 67%-23% and voters in the west suburbs favor it 74%-19%.
Given that gun owners also widely support this proposal underscores that this isn’t seen as an infringement of 2nd Amendment rights.
• 33% of respondents are in a household that owns a firearm. These voters favor the proposal by a greater than two-to-one margin (63%-30%).
Opponents of this proposal will struggle to build opposition.
• After hearing a balanced set of arguments from both sides, more than two-thirds of voters continue to favor the proposal (67%-30%).
• The most powerful argument from proponents was:
o For years, Congress has cut essential funding for law enforcement to prevent gun dealers from selling guns illegally. As a result, gun dealers operate with minimal oversight and are inspected only once every five years. This has resulted in over 4000 illegal guns that each year are traced to gun dealers in Illinois. Licensing gun dealers in our state will improve monitoring and help ensure that guns sold in Illinois don’t end up in the wrong hands. (69% very/somewhat convincing)
• None of the opposing arguments we tested were as resonant as the most powerful arguments from supporters. In particular, arguments about regulatory burdens and the costs to small gun manufacturers fell flat.
o This proposal will put an enormous regulatory burden on gun owners and add between $150 and $300 dollars to the price of any new firearm. This will result in many gun dealers closing, causing law-abiding citizens to drive hundreds of miles to find a gun dealer still in business and will result in the loss of hundreds of well-paying jobs. (42% very/somewhat convincing)
o Small gun manufacturers in Illinois will be priced out of business with the proposal to license gun dealers, as they would have to comply with this proposal as well. The costs to manufacturers would be prohibitive and they would have to move out of state or shut down, forcing many Illinoisans to lose their jobs. (40% very/somewhat convincing)
In the divisive and polarized world of today, it is rare to see a legislative proposal that sees this level of support across partisan lines. The upside for legislators is significant, while the downside for Republicans concerned about their base is extremely limited. Requiring gun dealers to be licensed by the state is both good policy and good politics.
* Methodology…
N=600 interviews were conducted on March 26-28, 2018 in 20 key State House and in State Senate Districts located primarily in the suburban Cook and Collar Counties of Chicago and a few downstate. 40% of interviews were conducted with a cell phone sample of those who couldn’t be reached on a landline. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level and the margin of error among sub-groups is greater.
* Accompanying press release…
During a time of significant political divisiveness, there is one issue where Illinois voters across party lines are united: license gun dealers in Illinois as part of the Gun Dealer Licensing Act (SB 1657), thus paving the way for an override of Governor Rauner’s veto of this bill.
Despite passing with bipartisan support this session, Governor Rauner vetoed SB 1657 shortly before the March primary. Starting April 10, the state Senate has 15 days in which to override his veto; if overridden, it will then move to the House, opening another 15 day window for an override.
The Gun Dealer Licensing Act would require criminal background checks for all gun shop employees. It would require training to help gun shop employees identify a buyer purchasing a gun for someone else, require basic store security measures to help prevent theft, and strengthen law enforcement’s ability to catch those responsible for illegal gun trafficking.
The Illinois Gun Violence Prevention Coalition (ILGVP) conducted a bipartisan poll to gauge public opinion around this bill in key swing suburban cook, collar county and (a few) downstate districts. Support for this bill is widespread, with 71% of voters across these districts favoring the proposal. This gives legislators in traditionally more conservative and gun friendly districts assurances that their voters strongly support putting common-sense measures in place to ensure firearms from local gun dealers don’t hand end up in the hands of those looking to do harm.
“Republicans, Independents and gun owners all support this common-sense legislation that would help keep illegal guns out of our communities,” said Kathleen Sances, President and CEO of the Illinois Gun Violence Prevention PAC (GPAC). “Legislators can rest assured that their constituents are on the right side of this issue and they are empowered to vote to override the Governor’s veto of SB 1657.”
The Governor argued that the bill duplicated the work of the Federal government in regulating gun dealers to justify his veto. However, while the ATF is required to monitor gun dealers across the country, including Illinois, they are significantly underfunded and understaffed due to Congressional budget cuts. In fact, the ATF inspected just six percent of the 136,000 gun dealers in the U.S. in 2015. Meanwhile, a typical Illinois dealer may go up to 10 years between inspections. Perhaps worst of all, because the ATF is prohibited from requiring dealers to conduct annual inventories the actual number of guns lost or stolen in the U.S. each year is unknown. SB 1657 addresses these issues, creating a better system of checks and balances that will save lives.
This bipartisan poll was conducted by American Viewpoint and GBA Strategies on March 26 – 28, 2018 in 20 key state House and Senate Districts located primarily in the suburban Cook and Collar Counties of Chicago, in addition to a few downstate districts. 600 likely voters were interviewed and the poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
* Related…
* Democrats face two-week deadline in trying to override Rauner veto of gun store bill: “For years we have been combating the intense depth but narrow breadth of NRA-supported districts,” Harmon said. “The same 20 or 30 guys show up at a senator’s office over and over and over again and demand that the senator not support common sense gun laws. And meanwhile there are 30,000 people in the district who feel the opposite but they don’t have the same intensity. And that’s something that has changed in the wake of these horrific shootings.” But opponents led by gun shop owners said they were “optimistic” Rauner’s veto would stand. They note that just 30 senators voted for the proposal the first time around, and Harmon needs 36 votes to override the governor.
- PJ - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 10:34 am:
But how will people wage a revolution against the American government with regulated gun dealers?
- Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 10:51 am:
surprised to see Vandermyde quoted in an article.
- anon2 - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 10:54 am:
THis poll may put some pressure on GOP legislators up this fall in potential swing districts.
- Al - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:03 am:
We need this because we refuse to do the trace work and make the Straw purchase cases on the thousands of firearms seized each year. A new business regulation because States attorney’s refuse to make the resources available. Unfortunate political tool. Lock Straw purchasers in jail for ten years like we do for arson.
- Phenomynous - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:06 am:
So, 600 likely voters spread across 20 districts? I don’t know about that sample size. That’s 30 voters per district? Unless I’m missing something.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:08 am:
===That’s 30 voters per district?===
So?
It’s about the total sample size, not the in-district size.
- Phenomynous - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:12 am:
I would just be careful about applying it to individual districts. 30 people could support in one district and nine in another district and the overall results would be the same.
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:17 am:
I’m guessing if you poll on any gun regulation — whether it’s smart, effective policy or not — in a swing district — it will poll well.
- RNUG - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:30 am:
Other than a collar county or two, this won’t make any difference. But it makes good headlines and will be the last regulatory straw for a few hobbyist dealers.
- Soothsayer - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:39 am:
Lots of conservative women in the suburbs strongly favor greater gun regulation. Moms Demand Action meetings have been standing room only. It will be interesting to see, especially in the western suburbs, how this will play out in November. Sen. Curran, in particular, should be a little worried.
- Dave Fako - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:43 am:
n=600 is about a normal statewide sample and definitely not small for a sampling of 20 districts. For comparison, most individual legislative district polls use a sample of n=300 - 400, congressional in the same range or occasionally higher, statewide typically n=600 - 800 and national surveys are usually 800 - 1200ish.
It would be important to know the stratification of the sample among the districts (or groups of district by region / similarity).
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:46 am:
===But it makes good headlines and will be the last regulatory straw for a few hobbyist dealers.===
I’m sure they can find new hobbies. Model trains are popular. So is fishing. Somehow I think they’ll find a way to fill the hours. Maybe some will take up golf?
- DuPage - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:55 am:
Not going to change much, many guns come into Illinois from other states, like Indiana and Mississippi. If they close down legal sales in Illinois, the guns will still infiltrate from these states. Background checks at gun shows and individual sales would be more effective. Also, increase the penalty for felons carrying a gun.
- SW - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 11:58 am:
Did the pollster tell the person that gun dealers are licensed and highly regulated by the federal government before asking the question? That the dealer has to keep a record of the transaction? Licensing of dealers sounds good in isolation.
- Shytown - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 12:20 pm:
=== Not going to change much, many guns come into Illinois from other states, like Indiana and Mississippi ===
Actually you’re wrong about that. It’s been widely reported that 40% of guns in chicago crime come from dealers in Illinois. That’s not insignificant. And this bill would have a big impact on that.
- Shytown - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 12:23 pm:
=== Did the pollster tell the person that gun dealers are licensed and highly regulated by the federal government before asking the question? ===
Actually, wrong here too. From the poll: For years, Congress has cut essential funding for law enforcement to prevent gun dealers from selling guns illegally. As a result, gun dealers operate with minimal oversight and are inspected only once every five years. This has resulted in over 4000 illegal guns that each year are traced to gun dealers in Illinois. Licensing gun dealers in our state will improve monitoring and help ensure that guns sold in Illinois don’t end up in the wrong hands. (69% very/somewhat convincing)
The ATF is so understaffed and underfunded that Illinois dealers get visited by them on overage once every 10 years. Hardly “highly regulated”
- Todd - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 12:26 pm:
The trace data means little as there is no context to the information. You buy a gun from chucks, 3 weeks later while you leave it in the console of your car per the carry law while at you kids school, sports events and your car gets broken I to and the gun stolen. It later turns up at ana crime scene and is traced Did the dealer do anything wrong? No
If they break into your home and they steal 35 guns that were later recovered and traced, again did the dealer do anything wrong? No but all that counts in the trace data they flaunt.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 12:30 pm:
“…Congress has cut essential funding for law enforcement to prevent gun dealers from selling guns illegally. As a result, gun dealers operate with minimal oversight and are inspected only once every five years.”
If this is the poll language above, that is a false statement. In fact I know one small town FFL dealer who last year was pressured to retire and give up his license, after his second ATF inspection. His first dealer inspection cost about $10,000 all told with his lawyer’s fees and fines from ATF. Like all citizens, he had to hire a lawyer at his own expense to contest the ATF fines at an “administrative hearing” kangaroo court, where you do not have due process any more than a Chicago red light camera ticket.
Another FFL licensee was just sentenced to six months federal prison, and twelve months work release with an ankle bracelet for violations. Saying the ATF is this weak, pathetic, poor little org that is so underfunded that they are like the only U.S. Marshal in Indian Territory is a lie. ATF is a federal bureaucracy, they have as much resources as they need to target anyone they really want to run out of business, no different than IRS.
If the dealer licensing bill passes, look for state police to conduct weekly visits and copy the 4473 forms to get gun owner names and addresses, then share with local police so they can surveil and raid people they want to set up. The real purpose of this bill is citizen harassment and disarmament, not crime prevention.
- Caryn - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 1:20 pm:
Reasonable steps like state licensure of businesses are widely popular, and not the right place to play a political agenda right now. Illinois deserves better. This data shows what our residents want - now it’s on lawmakers to take the right steps. I support our lawmakers in overriding the veto.
- Ron - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 1:40 pm:
We require a license for virtually all business don’t we? Why wouldn’t we for a gun dealer?
- CubsFan - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 2:42 pm:
This bill is a common sense solution. 25 states have already placed additional regulations on gun dealers, 15 states through licensing systems, because the federal system is insufficient and underfunded. Illinois needs to step it up. Lives are on the line.
- Tim - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 2:43 pm:
It is extremely obvious the poll is flawed beyond extreme. It was conducted by a biased organization, used a very small sample size per district, and appears to use usual poll leading questions.
- Judgement Day - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 2:49 pm:
“We require a license for virtually all business don’t we? Why wouldn’t we for a gun dealer?”
———–
Already being done by the Feds. Why duplicate the effort, particularly because (a) Illinois doesn’t have the funds to perform current inspections & regulatory activities properly, and (b) Illinois isn’t even capable of doing a decent job of enforcing currently existing regulatory duties in other areas.
Examples (just a sampling) would include:
- City of Chicago food safety inspections. Btw, there’s other places with similar problems. LOTS of other places. Ask yourself why the IDPH program review results for certified health departments aren’t public information.
- Tanning inspections (IDPH)
- Elevator inspections (State Fire Marshall)
- Swimming pool inspections (IDPH?)
There’s more.
So we want to add more ‘feel good’ regulations, which we can’t afford, and which already duplicate work being done at the federal level.
Smart thinking there. NOT!
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 2:57 pm:
===It was conducted by a biased organization===
You didn’t read this very closely, did you Tim? If you had, you’d know the poll was conducted by TWO biased organizations.
Also, you don’t know much about polling, do you Tim?
- Todd - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 4:12 pm:
Illinois does have additional regulation beyond federal law on dealers and most of those 15 states don’t have anything like this
Indiana has a licensing requirement it doesn’t slow down the guns from there to chicago
All of the shops in cook county have a local license on top of the federal one. So we just pile on another layer why Becuase we don’t like a couple of dealers that have never been charged with any wrong doing?
- Tim - Wednesday, Apr 11, 18 @ 8:37 pm:
Why didn’t the poll mention that this bill adds a bunch of extra beauracratic needs, workload and oversight without any funding AND is opposed by the departments mandated to administer it?
- Soder606 - Thursday, Apr 12, 18 @ 3:58 pm:
we knew from polling done in 2016 that this was the case. It is only stronger. The citizens if Illinois want Gun Dealers to be licensed by our state