“I probably just lost $50,000. That’s my first house.” So said Illinois farmer Aaron Wernz, speaking to a Wall Street Journal reporter after China announced it would put a hefty 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, which Wernz grows. The tariffs will raise prices to Chinese buyers and cut their purchases, which could cost American soybean growers $1.7 billion. […]
Last month, the administration announced it would put new duties on all imported aluminum and steel, before deciding to exempt Canada, Mexico, the European Union and other countries. The chief target was China, which answered with tariffs on U.S. pork, fruit and nuts.
Then the Trump administration announced 25 percent duties on more than 1,300 Chinese products worth some $50 billion. Beijing countered with equal levies on $50 billion of 128 U.S. goods, notably soybeans, corn, cotton, chemicals and cars. There may be more tariffs to come.
If China slaps a heavy tariff on soybean imports, 43,000 Illinois soybean farmers will scream. But so, too, will Illinois taxpayers as our state’s miserable economy takes another big hit. If China slaps a tariff on pork, some 2,000 Illinois pork farmers will howl, and so will we all.
State tax revenues will drop, revenues and profits for related businesses will take a dive, and good luck, Illinois, in clawing back to economic and fiscal health. […]
Illinois is the United States’ leading producer of soybeans, and China is our best customer. The Chinese buy almost 25 percent of the state’s output, about $1.75 billion in soybeans.
Last year, Illinois produced nearly 612 million bushels of soybeans, according to the Illinois Soybean Association. And about 114,000 people in Illinois have jobs thanks to that huge demand for soybeans and byproducts, such as soybean meal and biodiesel, according to the association’s marketing committee chairman, Austin Rincker.
Overall, revenues for Illinois farmers are down considerably in the last five years, in part because grain supplies have outpaced demands, but soybeans have been the exception. They have been profitable, Rincker says, “because of the demand in China.”
President Donald Trump’s move to slap $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports threatens to complicate and sharply drive up the cost of a much-ballyhooed contract the Chicago Transit Authority has struck with a Chinese firm to produce as many as 836 train cars.
The up to $1.3 billion pact was awarded two years ago to CSR Sifang America, now known as CRRC Sifang America, which is scheduled to deliver two prototype cars next year before beginning full production. Mayor Rahm Emanuel lauded the deal because, under its terms, Sifang would open a plant at 135th and Torrence, the first rail plant of any kind in many decades in the Pullman neighborhood, which once was the center of the nation’s rail-vehicle industry.
The new problem is that Sifang will only assemble the cars at 135th and Torrence. Their components will be made elsewhere, including in China, and Trump’s proposed new tariffs would impose a 25 percent duty on rail cars, their parts and components imported from that country.
The CTA’s contract includes a “buy America” clause requiring that at least 69 percent of the components in the cars assembled by Sifang be produced in this country. But that still leaves hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth in other components that could come from China and therefore be subject to a 25 percent tariff.
Proft calls concerns about the publications’ funding and transparency hypocritical.
“[W]hen Gateway or you do a story about the AFL-CIO Sun-Times or the Amazon Post raising the same questions and self-reverential ‘concerns’ and getting anywhere near the transparency provided by the enterprises with which I’m associated, then I’ll take inquiries such as yours more seriously,” Proft wrote, referring to The Washington Post owner and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and the union owners of the Sun-Times. “Until then, I will properly see them as the thinly-veiled political attacks they are by those who don’t care to see conservative perspectives and news stories they would never cover make their way into public discussion.” […]
Brian Timpone, who runs the LGIS hyperlocal publications, is critical of nostalgia for local journalism’s fatter days. “Everyone,” he tells CJR, “reminisces about the glory days of the statehouse.” Two decades ago, Timpone worked as a TV reporter and covered the capitol for WCIA-TV. He was also the co-founder of Journatic, which CJR previously called a “local news outsourcing company” and which was submerged in scandal following revelations of fake bylines and plagiarism. (Journatic changed its name to LocalLabs in 2014.)
Timpone blames traditional reporters for helping to push the state toward its fiscal crisis today. “It’s really criminal what happened to Illinois and it all happened at a time when there were a lot more reporters—and nobody said a damn thing,” Timpone says. “All they did was they reported the news of the day like stenographers, and they’re doing the same thing today as they did then.”
Republican State Sen. Jason Barickman of Bloomington told WJBC’s Scott Laughlin he expects more gamesmanship from the Democratic leaders to prevent anything that might help Gov. Bruce Rauner win reelection in November.
“(Illinois House Speaker Mike) Madigan is a seasoned pro at controlling that legislative process to ensure that,” Barickman snarked. “I don’t think Madigan will want to give a full-year budget because it will be perceived as a win for Rauner.”
* The Question: What do you think will happen with the budget this spring?
She’s here! Diana and I are excited to announce the arrival of our first grandchild. Hearts full and blessed beyond words to welcome this perfect gift into the family. pic.twitter.com/3j5faJ9jl3
* Every four years, Republican Party conventions of precinct committeemen are held in every Illinois county for the purpose of electing state central committee members in each of the state’s congressional districts. The filing deadline was March 26th. Dave Diersen posted a list of contested races. I’ve added incumbent (i) designations…
Congressional District 1
• Shawn Murphy, Evergreen Park (i)
• David Smith, Frankfort
Congressional District 2
• Judy Diekelman, Thornton (i)
• George Pearson, Monee
Congressional District 5
• Jack Dorgan, Rosemont (i)
• Chris Cleveland, Chicago
Congressional District 6
• Brian Colgan, Naperville (i)
• Seth Lewis, Bartlett
• Bob Grogan, Downers Grove
Congressional District 7
• Carol Smith Donovan, Chicago (i)
• Adrian Wright, Chicago
• Mark Hosty, River Forest
Congressional District 8
• Ryan Higgins, Schaumburg (i)
• Paul Hinds, Villa Park
Congressional District 9
• Char Foss-Eggman, Park Ridge
• Sallie Nyhan Davis, Glenview
Congressional District 13
• Fred Floreth, Springfield (i)
• Dustin Peterson, Clinton
Congressional District 15
• Bob Winchester, Rosiclare (i)
• Chapin Rose, Mahomet
Congressional District 16
• John McGlasson, Pontiac (i)
• Tom Demmer, Dixon
Congressional District 17
• Jan Weber, Geneseo (i)
• Patrick Harlan, Galesburg
That’s a lot of challenges.
I asked Dan Proft if he was behind any of these candidates in an attempt to take over the party. Chris Cleveland was a big Jeanne Ives supporter, for example, as was David Smith, Patrick Harlan and others on that list.
Proft’s texted response…
Think you’ve got it reversed. It reads to me as if Rauner and his big government apparatchiks are working to continue their purge of conservatives from the party per their backing candidates against McGlasson, Floreth and Winchester. Message to Ives and her supporters: leave the party.
I checked in with the ILGOP, former statewide candidate Bob Grogan and the Ives campaign, but haven’t yet heard back.
With his own re-election most definitely in jeopardy—national handicapper Larry Sabato dubs him “the most endangered” GOP incumbent governor in the country—who does Gov. Bruce Rauner have coming here next week to star at a big-bucks dinner to raise money for his campaign and the Illinois Republican Party?
Answer: Another GOP incumbent whose state Senate has turned on him, just saw another key ally go down in a special election, was labeled “a threat to democracy” by his capital’s leading newspaper, and who has taken to tweeting about a looming “blue wave” that’s going to wash away his accomlisments. That would be Wisconsin’s Gov. Scott Walker, who’s the big draw at the April 12 Chicago Hilton event for which tickets are going for as much as $50,000, but whose own re-election bid in cheesehead-land is no sure bet.
Walker always has been one of the role models Rauner mentions when asked who’s got the right stuff in politics, and indeed Walker—who unlike Rauner has a Legislature controlled by his own party—has been pretty much able to de-fang organized labor and bring down the state’s unemployment rate, though Wisconsin’s record of attracting new residents isn’t much better than Illinois’.
Democratic candidate for Illinois Governor, J.B. Pritzker, is promoting his plan for a progressive or graduated income tax, but is declining to provide specifics.
When questioned Wednesday by WJBC’s Sam Wood, Pritzker was vague about taxes during the two years he says it will take to amend the state constitution, which is required to enact a progressive tax that forces the wealthy to pay more.
Pritzker pledges to reduce the tax burden on the middle class.
“Lowering the tax burden is the goal by lowering the tax rate that they might pay on income taxes, and also, very importantly, lowering local property taxes, which are so regressive,” Pritzker said.
* Aside from his refusal to lay out his tax rates or say which income levels will pay higher rates, the other problem with Pritzker’s argument about making the wealthy pay more state taxes is this…
The returns also showed that in 2014, [JB Pritzker and his spouse] paid no state income taxes after taking nearly $150,000 in tax credits for research and development, as well as for property taxes and educational expenses.
Even 10 percent of nothing is still nothing for someone with a smart CPA.
…Adding… From the interview…
If we create jobs, we’re gonna add revenue to the coffers of the state of Illinois because we’re gonna bring new jobs online so people will pay taxes. Businesses will grow, they’ll pay taxes. That’s a great way to do, to bring revenue into the state without raising taxes at all. And that would be my goal, of course. You know, nobody wants to raise taxes.
Um, OK. He’s said time and time again that he’ll pay for his proposals by raising taxes.
Southern Illinois University trustees will consider a plan to gradually shift state funding from the Carbondale campus to the Edwardsville campus to reflect enrollment shifts.
Historically the Carbondale campus has had about 64 percent of state funding and about 36 percent went to Edwardsville. That split mirrored enrollment, The (Carbondale) Southern Illinoisan reported.
However enrollment at the Carbondale campus has been declining and more students are enrolling at Edwardsville. Enrollment distribution between the two schools is now about equal with Carbondale at about 14,500 students and Edwardsville with about 13,800 students.
Trustees are to vote at the April 12 meeting on whether to “begin a phased adjustment of the state appropriation allocation in a more equitable fashion.”
The first phase of the proposal, a “good-faith effort” to begin the process, would reallocate an additional $5.1 million of the state appropriation to the Edwardsville campus for FY ’19.
The proposal doesn’t lay out a definite end goal for reallocation, but it calls for System President Randy Dunn to hire an external consultant to develop a recommended formula for addressing the funding gap — and it anticipates that the recommendation might fall somewhere between $17.7 million and $23.3 million in funds transferred to SIUE.
During the state budget impasse last year, SIUC borrowed $35 million from SIUE after exhausting $83 million in reserves.
On March 1, the SIUE Faculty Senate adopted a resolution calling on the Board of Trustees to “create a new, fair and dynamic formula” to “reallocate the SIU system budget in a just and equitable manner.”
* I skimmed through the report yesterday (click here). What really jumped out at me was that SIUC’s fall 1999 enrollment was 22,596 and its fall 2017 enrollment was just 14,184. That’s a 37 percent decrease. Whoa.
Meanwhile, fall 1999 enrollment at SIUE was 11,877, compared to 13,796 last fall.
To say that SIUC’s future is bleak would be an understatement. Its legislators better get on this soon or they could wind up with a ghost town.
Two weeks after voters went to the polls, one of two Democrats vying to take on Republican Cook County Board Commissioner Timothy Schneider in November has declared victory in the primary, after counting of the last provisional ballots showed he was 12 votes ahead.
Barring any last-minute hitches before the county election results are certified Tuesday, Kevin Morrison, of Elk Grove Village, will advance to face Schneider, chairman of the state GOP and an ally of Gov. Bruce Rauner, in the fall.
Democrats figure Schneider, a third-term commissioner from Bartlett, could be vulnerable. Hillary Clinton won 57 percent of the vote in his northwest suburban district in 2016, compared with 37 percent for President Donald Trump.
“The status quo isn’t working for our families,” Morrison said in his statement declaring victory in the primary.
Morrison won endorsements from Elk Grove Township Democratic Committeeman Ted Mason, Wheeling Township Democratic Committeeman Mark Walker and U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-9th).
State Central committeeman Mike Cudzik also backed him.
* Morrison was up against an opponent who produced kinda weird campaign videos like this one…
Don’t laugh, Ravi Raju almost won, even though the Trib says he “only raised $3,000 and ran something of a stealth candidacy.”
Raju had the backing of Palatine Township Democratic Committeeman Matt Flamm, who state campaign disclosures show was his campaign fundraising committee chairman.
If the Democrats want to beat Schneider, they’re gonna have to first figure out what went so horribly wrong with Morrison.
…Adding… It turns out that Raju has taken GOP primary ballots the last two cycles…
And yet he still almost won. Morrison was obviously over-confident. A mailer or two highlighting this voting record would’ve sufficed. Oops.
* Since this is a Morning Consult poll, you need to keep in mind that the firm’s methodology is unusual and opaque…
Morning Consult conducted surveys with 987,166 registered U.S. voters from Jan. 20, 2017 to March 31, 2018 to determine the approval ratings for President Donald Trump in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for each month. […]
The results use a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to estimate state-level public opinion from the national survey data. MRP has been widely used in industry and in academia, and MRP estimates of state- and congressional district-level public opinion have generally been shown to outperform national polling, especially when there are few respondents in smaller geographic areas.
* Anyway, the poll found that the president’s Illinois approval rating is 36 percent. His disapproval rating is 60 percent. The claimed MoE is 1 percent.
Illinois disapproves of Trump more than most states. Only Hawaii, Massachusetts, Vermont and California give him worse ratings, according to this poll.
Shot-Chaser: Pritzker Says People Aren’t Leaving Illinois Because of Decades of Tax Hikes
The Chicago Tribune recently published an editorial featuring hardworking Illinois families that have left the state due to high taxes. But this is a reality that seems completely lost on JB Pritzker.
SHOT
“James Heard wrote a letter to Gov. Bruce Rauner when they moved, explaining why they had to go. Their property taxes had risen from about $1,600 when they bought their five-bedroom Homer Glen home in 1996 to nearly $10,000 by the time they left. They sold their house for $325,000 and made a little money. But the value of the home did not keep pace with the property taxes owed.
‘I was paying more than my fair share,’ he said. ‘I don’t see any way out (for Illinois). People making $100,000 or more are just going to leave. They’re all looking at northwest Indiana to get away from the taxes.’
Heard voted for Rauner in 2014 and thought the new governor might be able to change the tax-and-spend culture of Springfield. But the Democrats blocked Rauner’s agenda. Heard places the blame ’square on the shoulder of (House Speaker) Michael Madigan and the powerful interests of Chicago. The state just appears to be getting more and more liberal. They’re going to be running out of people to take things from.’”
CHASER
Pritzker shows just how out of touch he is with Illinois families, says “people aren’t leaving Illinois because they’re overtaxed.”
* I subscribe to the Rauner campaign’s YouTube page, so I was notified when that video popped up on Monday. I sent the link to the Pritzker campaign for comment, and they said there was more context.
Charles: How do you… I mean Governor Rauner says that he wants to incentivize businesses to stay in Illinois, keep their jobs here and keep Illinoisans from leaving the state. What are you going to do to specifically incentivize businesses statewide to get them to stay here?
JB: People are not leaving because they’re getting overtaxed. People are leaving this state because there’s complete uncertainty about the future of our state. So the biggest challenge is, Bruce Rauner can say everything he wants, but he’s created this complete uncertainty. Who wants to invest in a business or a factory…
Charles: But there was uncertainty before he came into office…
JB: No, I’m telling you right now he’s driven it off a cliff. What business wants to invest $40 million to build a factory in the state of Illinois when they don’t know if we’re gonna have a budget or be able to pay for education?
Maze: Speaking of that factory though. Illinois has the highest black unemployment in the country.
While Bruce Rauner redacts and refuses to release emails that shed light on why it took “so long” to “take action” on the 2015 Legionnaires’ outbreak, a new report uncovers some of what Rauner was hiding.
One missing email chain was about correspondence from a son who “condemned the state for withholding information about Legionnaires’ at the home as his father lay dying.” But those emails were not among the 442 printed emails delivered to lawmakers jumbled and out of order. “It looks like they literally just threw them up in the air,” Senator Tom Cullerton told WBEZ.
“This is a blatant cover up and our Veterans and their families deserve the truth,” said Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh. “From redacting vital information to jumbling public records, Bruce Rauner is more concerned with his public image than the wellbeing of Illinois Veterans. While legislators investigate his fatal mismanagement, this failed governor is trying to throw them off instead of coming up with concrete solutions to end the Legionnaires’ crisis.”
A WBEZ analysis of nearly 450 pages of emails found that government lawyers blacked out portions of more than half the documents recently turned over to a legislative panel investigating the state’s inability to contain the waterborne illness. Repeated outbreaks at the home since 2015 have contributed to the deaths of 13 residents and sickened dozens more.
The way the government lawyers wielded their figurative black markers to redact hundreds of Legionnaires’-related emails has some lawmakers fuming and government transparency advocates crying foul.
WBEZ had previously obtained some Legionnaires’-related emails from the public health department in Adams County, where the Quincy home is located. The Rauner administration later handed over some of those same emails to the legislative committee investigating the outbreaks — with significantly more redactions.
By cross-checking the two groups of documents, it’s possible to see some of what Rauner’s office didn’t want lawmakers to see.
In some cases, lawmakers received documents so heavily redacted that they were virtually useless. Furthermore, lawmakers simply did not receive some emails written by administration officials that WBEZ knows to exist.
Taken individually (except for the Tom Cullerton thing), I’m not sure the article makes a good case that the administration’s black-outs were particularly egregious. The overall impression, however, is certainly not good.
