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Correlation vs. causation on taxation

Wednesday, May 2, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Umm…



Illinoisans received a 25 percent state income tax cut on January 1, 2015.

* Meanwhile…



That story Jake referred to is here.

       

15 Comments
  1. - cdog - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:42 pm:

    That $2B decrease in AGI was just Pritzker deciding to move less stateside. /s


  2. - Ed Higher - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:54 pm:

    If taxes are hiked, will Rauner take a hike?

    Please?


  3. - Mama - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:12 pm:

    “When taxes are hiked, people take a hike”

    Most people don’t move due to taxes. They move for: jobs, to be closer to family members, better health environment.


  4. - James Knell - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:14 pm:

    I wonder if it’s ever crossed Bruce Rauner’s mind that maybe some people leave Illinois because of him. I’m way to stubborn, but not everyone is.


  5. - don the legend - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:16 pm:

    Rauner sees absolutely no good ever coming out of the public sector. Therefore any taxation is bad and unnecessary.

    He is a cancer on civil society and democratic principles. Why does he even want to a part of the government he hates so much?


  6. - JoanP - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:16 pm:

    Bill Gates allegedly just bought a house in Chicago. Make of that what you will.


  7. - Lefty Lefty - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:18 pm:

    Since the majority of the electorate is innumerate they will believe what they want to believe anyway.

    Having a governor saying our state stinks every chance he gets for 3 years, on the other hand, is great for business.


  8. - Skeptic - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:39 pm:

    Rich: No, if taxes had stayed the same in January 2015 it would have been a tax increase, remember? So by taxes going down, they stayed the same. That explains everything. I think.


  9. - Silicon Prairie - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:50 pm:

    A lot of variables in both views. I think what is important is the types of jobs we are losing. Most studies show transportation and utilities are biggest loses in Illinois. The corporate jobs in downtown Chicago are the Net gain. Outside of NY we still have the most options and futures markets jobs, proprietary traders-the states around us dont have that. Every major bank in the world has a location here because of CME Group and CBOE


  10. - Silicon Prairie - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 5:07 pm:

    24/7’s “Top 10 Cities Losing Jobs in 2017”
    1. Cape Girardeau, MO-IL
    2. Cheyenne, WY
    3. Danville, IL
    4. Michigan City-La Porte, IN
    5. Portsmouth, NH-ME
    6. Springfield, IL
    7. Bay City, MI
    8. Grand Forks, ND-MN
    9. Decatur, IL
    10. Dubuque, IA

    4 of 10 in Illinois,plus 2 on the boarder. Yet, Chicago just hit a 30 year high in jobs. Brucey needs to do more for Chicago


  11. - Millennial - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 5:34 pm:

    =Illinois has 852 school districts compared with 130 school districts in Virginia, a state with a very similar demographic makeup to Illinois. The average school district in Virginia serves more than twice the number of students than the average in Illinois, despite similar student enrollment per school. Virginia students also outperform Illinoisans on schooling outcomes. Improvements in education by prioritizing students over administrators through consolidation could yield better educational outcomes and lower the tax burden.=
    Amen.


  12. - Streamwood Retiree - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 5:55 pm:

    Speaking of Virginia - When I lived there (1974-1979) I p[aid $300 property tax to Loudoun County vs the $1,050 I paid in Buffalo Grove (Lake County side). My Virginia house was 33% more expensive and I had nearly a half acre.
    The income tax was on one page. The rate was 5.75% or 8.75% I forget which. But you transferred your Federal taxable interest over without additions and subtractions. You on;y paid to a County or City, not both. If this was Virginia, Chicago would NOT be part of Cook County. Ir was great place. Unless you are a damnyankee (yes, it’s one word).


  13. - Streamwood Retiree - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 6:05 pm:

    Typo: ” Federal taxable interest” should be “Federal taxable income”. If I was still working, I’d gladly pay 8.75% income tax on only half my salary and not pay the 60% of my $8,000 property tax that goes to school district U-46. (VA funds schools 100% from income tax). And gentlemen, that’s an example of how you can have a progressive income tax without a Constitutional Amendment.


  14. - City Zen - Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 6:53 pm:

    Both the union - er, IWT - and Rauner are reaching. Here are the national employment numbers and how IL compares:

    2010 0.81% 0.26%
    2011 1.60% -0.58%
    2012 1.62% -0.26%
    2013 1.70% -0.75%
    2014 2.19% -0.69%
    2015 1.93% -0.58%
    2016 1.64% -1.02%
    2017 1.50% -0.79%

    Keep in mind Obama’s 2% rollback of the payroll tax in 2011-12 plays into this. Also, prior to 2010, IL was tanking far worse than the rest of the country, so a recovery was to be expected.

    Bottom line - Bruce has been no ray of sunshine for employment, but his 2017 numbers are not far off from the peak tax hike years of 2013-14 when you factor in national comparisons.


  15. - TominChicago - Thursday, May 3, 18 @ 9:03 am:

    Only Rauner could make numbers lie.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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