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President Trump is 22 points underwater in Illinois poll
Wednesday, Jun 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * Their polling methodology is much too opaque for my tastes and the extended time period of their polls (this one is January through May) means many of their numbers are way old, but Morning Consult just published its most recent state-by-state poll and it has President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in Illinois at 37 percent, while his disapproval is 59 percent. They’re claiming a 1 percent margin of error. Click here. Those job approval ratings do track closely with a recent poll I’ve seen on his favorable/unfavorable ratings. Subscribers know more.
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- Iggy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:14 am:
any poll you see on Trump add 5 points to make up for the people that lie to pollsters because they don’t want them knowing they are Trump supporters.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:15 am:
I’m not convinced this has a great impact unless he’s on the top of the ballot. The unfaves are among both parties, so it’s goulash trying to figure out how much it affects down ballot races.
Illinois is an enigma. Trump is an enigma. When those two worlds collide, you get a lot of goo.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:17 am:
===I’m not convinced this has a great impact unless he’s on the top of the ballot.===
Tell that to midterm election results…
What was that you said… past is prologue?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:21 am:
Iggy, the 2016 RCP polling average in Illinois was Clinton by 11. She won by 17.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:21 am:
===Illinois is an enigma. Trump is an enigma.===
Trump polled, behind, between 14-19 point.
Trump lost by 17 points.
Hmm.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:29 am:
===unless he’s on the top of the ballot===
Did you sleep through 2006, 2010 and 2014?
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:33 am:
Willy, you might want to toss a few more ingredients into your stew. There’s enough of Illinois factor going on that Trump rarely comes up. When he does, it’s usually a supporter.
In the field (and yep we are in the field) even Rauner doesn’t come up so much. Madigan comes up more than anyone. And that was before the most recent issues. He’s radioactive right now.
Those CA midterms were odd format, but seemed to bend the trend a little. Illinois local Republicans have a good opportunity this go around. They do.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:34 am:
==Did you sleep through 2006, 2010 and 2014?==
You know better.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:35 am:
–I’m not convinced this has a great impact unless he’s on the top of the ballot.–
Talk about goo. Might want to scrape that off your shoes, Virginia, before going indoors.
Off-years are always a referendum on the party controlling the White House. Wishing it wasn’t so doesn’t change that.
This year, for Republicans, where Trump’s popular, no worries; where he’s not, could be big trouble.
- PJ - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:35 am:
==There’s enough of Illinois factor going on that Trump rarely comes up==
Maybe if you keep telling yourself that, it’ll come true. Hasn’t helped in literally any election since 2016, but I’m sure Illinois will be the place Trump doesn’t come up for voters. The state he lost by 17.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:37 am:
==Off-years are always a referendum on the party controlling the White House. ==
Almost always. Does this cycle seem even a little bit uncharted water to you?
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:39 am:
== Hasn’t helped in literally any election since 2016==
Might be a Senate nominee in WV who disagrees with you? And a few others.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:39 am:
===Almost always. Does this cycle seem even a little bit uncharted water to you?===
See: Virginia, state of
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:51 am:
–Does this cycle seem even a little bit uncharted water to you?–
The chart here says 22 points underwater. Your bag-o-vague-statements is the equivalent to Gilligan’s compass.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 10:52 am:
==The unfaves are among both parties==
Is that in this poll? Across the broad spectrum, Trump’s approval is sky-high among Republicans. There was an article last week about how it’s the highest ever. I’d need to see some compelling evidence to believe Illinois is out-of-step with that.
==There’s enough of Illinois factor going on that Trump rarely comes up.==
That is not consistent with my canvassing *At all*.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:01 am:
====There’s enough of Illinois factor going on that Trump rarely comes up. When he does, it’s usually a supporter.===
… and yet, Trump lost by 17, and is 22 points under water now.
===In the field (and yep we are in the field) even Rauner doesn’t come up so much===
I wonder if there’s a poll, a recent one, showing if Rauner is under water too… I’ll leave that there, thanks.
===Those CA midterms were odd format, but seemed to bend the trend a little.===
… and yet, again, Dems were able to get one candidate in all but one of their targeted races in the jungle primary format.
===And that was before the most recent issues. He’s radioactive right now.===
You, Mr. Breen and Rauner plan on working pro-life groups together, or…
Rauner isn’t all that “un-radioactive”
- jeffinginChicago - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:07 am:
If Trump is 37% in IL, it is great news for Rs. Because he can’t be over 20% in Cook County. He must be above water everywhere else. Just slightly joking
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:11 am:
==Your bag-o-vague-statements is the equivalent to Gilligan’s compass.==
I’m formally inviting you on a 3 hour tour, a 3 hour tour.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:18 am:
Ars, Trump’s numbers are not “sky high” among suburban Republican women. Results will vary I’m sure from place to place. My areas of concentration are collar counties. Love: Their local members in come cases Like: their locals in others; Dislike: Gov candidates, some Trump folks in this category. Hate: some Trump here, but mostly the Speaker. I’m not in heavy D areas very often, but some 50/50 spots or slightly D+.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:29 am:
===I’d need to see some compelling evidence to believe Illinois is out-of-step with that.===
It’s out there.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:31 am:
===My areas of concentration are collar counties. Love: Their local members in come cases Like: their locals in others; Dislike: Gov candidates, some Trump folks in this category. Hate: some Trump here, but mostly the Speaker. I’m not in heavy D areas very often, but some 50/50 spots or slightly D+.===
Polling > Anecdotal
Do you tell those you’re cancassing you’re staunchly against HB40, but still support Rauner. That has to be a head scratcher.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:35 am:
==Trump’s numbers are not “sky high” among suburban Republican women==
That’s one subset of Republicans. Not consistent with “The unfaves are among both parties, so it’s goulash trying to figure out how much it affects down ballot races”.
Anyway, if Republicans disapprove of the Republican President, that’s bad news for down-ballot Republicans no matter how much you motivate your reasoning.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:38 am:
FWIW, in my canvassing in Central IL- where it’s challenging to find that many heavily Democratic areas- everyone wants to talk about Trump and nobody likes Rauner or Madigan.
- ZC - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:42 am:
I assume Bruce Rauner’s campaign has sent the word up to whomever runs the endorsement section of Trump’s Twitter feed: “Blackout. Never mention Rauner. Please.” Then they cross their fingers and hope Trump himself doesn’t remember who Rauner is, and impulsively send his own tweet out.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 11:58 am:
Why would you support someone you’re so embarrassed to support that you’d lie to strangers about your support?
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:01 pm:
Illinois has not been in play for the national Republicans in almost thirty years. The Prairie State was surrounded by Red States in 2016.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:08 pm:
==Do you tell those you’re cancassing you’re staunchly against HB40, but still support Rauner. That has to be a head scratcher.==
Willy, it’s not anecdotal when you’re collecting data. No, I don’t talk about what I’m staunchly for or against. Nor am I out there discussing Rauner unless they bring him up. I’m listening mostly. Talking about their local Reps/Sens/County Board Members/Judges, if they are still willing..lol.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:11 pm:
===it’s not anecdotal when you’re collecting data.===
Release your results, your MOE, with demographics
Otherwise… lol
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:13 pm:
===Rauner unless they bring him up===
But you do support him, until you didn’t, but now do again..,
- don the legend - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:42 pm:
A guy: Perhaps a good canvasing question might be:
Madigan or Trump? What political leader said “You can do anything. Grab them by the %#**!. You can do anything.”
Madigan or Rauner? What political leader said ”
“I will bury her. I will make her radioactive. She will never get another job anywhere, ever. I will bankrupt her with legal fees. I don’t know if she has a family or not, but if she does, she better think twice about this.”
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:54 pm:
Willy, only enough to vote for him over JB.
==Release your results, your MOE, with demographics==
Sure. Would you come to my funeral?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 12:59 pm:
===Sure. Would you come to my funeral?===
Sounds like you’re a lil more than a volunteer then…
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 1:32 pm:
don the leg,
noted.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 1:40 pm:
Trump met with Kim Jong-un. Obama met with Jay Z.
There is the difference in polling the people of the great state of Illinois.
- Chris P. Bacon - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 2:41 pm:
Not surprising. No one in the IL GOP stands up for this President or lifts a finger to help educate about his winning agenda — despite the fact Trump is the only Republican really working and getting anything done.
It’s incredible, especially since Trump and the national game is where all the energy and attention is, and Trump is the most popular Republican by far, yes even in Illinois. Granted, that’s a low bar.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 2:41 pm:
==Willy, only enough to vote for him over JB.==
Funny how those principals work.
Anyway, I’ll keep this in mind next time you wax rhapsodic about Rauner’s attack ads.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 2:55 pm:
Principles Ars, principles.
Gotta have’em to spell ‘em I guess.
Willy, I’m GOP. Never figured out how to make money at it. Didn’t want to. Still, disclosing internal polling data from a campaign definitely gets you some form of the Death Penalty.
Ars, some of the best ads ever, aren’t for the person you support. Pat Quinn, for all his nuttiness (but, for the record, I do know and like him personally) had some great ads. There was a Glee themed ad I still laugh at.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 2:55 pm:
===Funny how those principals work.===
Burn the ships, lol
Mr. Breen is principled too, until he isn’t.
Can’t wait for more lectures, as Trump is under water and no one is willing to say Trump in any way.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:01 pm:
===…disclosing internal polling data from a campaign definitely gets you some form of the Death Penalty.===
I guess hinting you “know” by your anecdotal stories of your travels isn’t working too good as a cover. Your skill at linguistics to deflect makes ya sound silly.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:09 pm:
==Gotta have’em to spell ‘em I guess.==
Apparently not, since you can spell it correctly.
==Ars, some of the best ads ever, aren’t for the person you support.==
I’m glad you’ve finally learned this, because your constant praise of Rauner’s ads and poor-mouthing of JB’s ads, while easy to figure out, was getting obnoxious.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:12 pm:
==Mr. Breen is principled too, until he isn’t.==
At least A Guy’s climb-down from the post-HB40 refusal to vote for Rauner has only played out in this forum, lol.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:19 pm:
==Can’t wait for more lectures==
I think they’ll be easier to take from here, now that I know the faux-objective tone is all a put on and he’s such a committed partisan that his refusal to vote for Rauner only lasted as long as Rauner didn’t have a Democratic opponent.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:24 pm:
===I think they’ll be easier to take from here…===
True. I’d like to think Breen regrets the letter now, but I fear the only regret is being called on it later.
It’s like Trump and the GOP, any level, state, national, even local… once the idea of standing up to Trump proves fruitless, the premise of standing up for principles is lost to the politics.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:29 pm:
== Your skill at linguistics to deflect makes ya sound silly.==
Color me Silly then I guess. Just doing my best in a place where I’m completely out of my league. But, I still try.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:31 pm:
==It’s like Trump and the GOP, any level, state, national, even local… once the idea of standing up to Trump proves fruitless, the premise of standing up for principles is lost to the politics.==
Some subset of voters will have to enforce their stated principals and punish them when they abandon them.
But it can’t be me. What am I gonna do, never vote for them HARDER, lol?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 13, 18 @ 3:37 pm:
=== Just doing my best in a place where I’m completely out of my league.===
No. You’re not. Tying yourself in knots, you can fix that.