Unsolicited advice
Friday, Jul 20, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rep. Allen Skillicorn was recently interviewed on Berkowitz’s show…
Jeff Berkowitz: What percentage of those 340,000 Republicans who voted for Jeanne Ives in the Republican Primary in March will vote for Bruce Rauner in November [instead of staying home, skipping the Governor’s slot on their ballot or voting for someone else].
Rep. Allen Skillicorn: …55%
BerKowitz: So, he loses because similarly there is a bunch of Republicans who didn’t vote in the Republican Primary who have similar preferences to the Jeanne Ives’ primary voters—they also wouldn’t vote for him, so if the Governor can’t get his base up to the 85%, 90%, 95% supporting him, he can’t win in IL. [losing about 175,000 Republican votes that are usually a gimme]
Rep. Allen Skillicorn: So,there is an opportunity to grow that—
Berkowitz: Tell him, tell the Governor how to grow his vote among the base Republican voters!
Rep. Skillicorn: He has to reach out to the conservative base. He has to give them something they want in terms of policies- here’s a great step-
Berkowitz: We only have a minute left in the show, so tell him!
Rep. Skillicorn: In one minute, he would advocate to take Medicaid pieces that are not federally reimbursed, so the Medicaid bills that we [IL State Government] has to pay 100% for- like taxpayer funding of abortion, things like that, the Federal Government does not match those abortion funds, those are 100% paid for by Illinois Taxpayers, if he would rescind that, help rescind that or promise to rescind that, it would get a lot of those people back to vote for him, and he has to acknowledge that the State is not all North Shore [Winnetka, Kenilworth, Wilmette, etc], that would bring a lot of those people back.
The governor’s problem is that he has to unify his party base without alienating independent voters. So, I just don’t think moving right on social issues is the way to go. The “Because… Madigan!” schtick may be tiring for some here, but it’s the single best issue Rauner has, considering his record these past few years.
* With that in mind, on to the Sun-Times…
With the general election, Rauner needs votes outside his base to win — especially since he still has not unified his right flank. The Thursday day trip [to Washington, DC] was pegged to accepting an award from the National Black Chamber of Commerce for his work helping African American companies win state contracts.
There are about 23 Illinois Black Chamber of Commerce chapters in Illinois and Rauner is well-known to the group. The event took place in the Dirksen Senate Office Building.
It looks like the Rauner campaign will peg an appeal to African-American voters in part on his procurement policies, which have been criticized by Illinois state Senate Democrats.
Republican African-American outreach has had two general purposes in Illinois: 1) Drive down black turnout a bit; and 2) Signal to suburban moderates that you’re not hostile to black people.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:32 am:
–The governor’s problem is that he has to unify his party base without alienating independent voters. –
True.
–The “Because… Madigan!” schtick may be tiring for some here, but it’s the single best issue Rauner has, considering his record these past few years.–
Truer.
–Republican African-American outreach has had two general purposes in Illinois: 1) Drive down black turnout a bit; and 2) Signal to suburban moderates that you’re not hostile to black people.–
Truest.
- ste_with a v_en - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:37 am:
He might just be mad he didn’t get picked for the Senate seat https://kanecountyreporter.com/stories/511493655-gop-goes-country-club-passes-over-skillicorn
- cdog - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:43 am:
I usually “vote against” the lessor of two evils.
Rauner has lost the argument for far right votes, unless he goes through a psychological metamorphosis before November.
He can, however, still attract those that are ready to “vote against” the leftward progression of the Democrat Party.
There are many, many, “against votes” to be earned.
But the truth is that I’m not too sure he has what it takes to do this.
- Marty Funkhouser - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:51 am:
What the heck happened to Berkowitz’s set and theme? Had kind of a cheaper Charlie Rose feel to it, along with Berkowitz’s baseball bat and other tchotchkes.
- Pundent - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:54 am:
Skillicorn’s comment and Rich’s analysis underscore how difficult the task is for Rauner. For every Republican vote he attempts to solidify by moving to the right he runs the risk of losing independents. He’s going to be very challenged in this cycle to get any normal Democrat votes that might be willing to cross-over. It worked the first time because many Dems were frustrated with Quinn and Rauner’s agenda was more opaque. The agenda is now on full display and despite his attempt to pivot to “Madigan” it doesn’t seem like the strategy is taking hold. If it were the Democrat primary would have been far closer.
- Anon0091 - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:55 am:
Skillicorn is reflective of a very large part of the GOP base which is why Rauner is in so much trouble. Not long ago someone said they couldn’t imagine what Rauner could have done to alienate his party more and based on my GOP friends, that’s exactly right. Unless he fixes that immediately (and it’s probably already too late), he’s doomed which is why the two national political analysts just shifted their ratings away from Rauner.
- Angry Republican - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 11:59 am:
“–The governor’s problem is that he has to unify his party base without alienating independent voters. –
True.”
This assumes Rauner has a base; he doesn’t which is why he will lose by double digits in November.
- Arsenal - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:00 pm:
I’m usually happy to agree that Rauner is in trouble, but I also kinda think there was a reason that nobody solicited Skillicorn’s advise.
- Flat Bed Ford - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:08 pm:
If you are taking political advice from Skillicorn you are doing it wrong. If he is the face of the GOP in Illinois then it will be two things that drive me out. High property taxes and 20 years of the GOP wandering in the Illinois wilderness.
- BlueDogDem - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:11 pm:
The bluedog family will be Sure I g this one out. Unless McCann comes around.
- Nick Name - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:14 pm:
===With the general election, Rauner needs votes outside his base to win===
But what is his base?
- JS Mill - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:19 pm:
=2) Signal to suburban moderates that you’re not hostile to black people.=
Not hostile, and not helpful.
The last time he ran he deposited money in a few black owned banks. I wonder what those balances are now?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:20 pm:
===–The governor’s problem is that he has to unify his party base without alienating independent voters. –
True.
–The “Because… Madigan!” schtick may be tiring for some here, but it’s the single best issue Rauner has, considering his record these past few years.–
Truer.
–Republican African-American outreach has had two general purposes in Illinois: 1) Drive down black turnout a bit; and 2) Signal to suburban moderates that you’re not hostile to black people.–
Truest.===
Concur on all counts, but I grabbed all that to also make note where Rauner and Raunerism fails to the building of a party, a GOP party, not a Raunerite cabal that ate up and bought the brand GOP.
Maureen Murphy.
Mark Beaubien.
If the GOP here in Illinois… all factions, stripes, ideology, whatever… can’t grasp that the party must unite and embrace both the Maureen Murphys and Mark Beaubiens to grow and win, then the three true points will always be the playbook, as the GOP will never get a majority based on the GOP party growth.
What Proft wants, and how he makes bank is…
A divided party… and the phony premise that a few got to wholly control a party is the lone goal.
It’s not governing, it’s grifting off the premise it’s better to be right (Right) than be governing.
Edgar, Kustra, Jim Ryan, GHR, Didrickson, Topinka, Pate, Lee.
You think all those crew agreed 100%.
They agreed 80% of the time, with conservatives, moderates, women, downstate… all engaged… with their own Crews… but with one purpose… be the GOP.
When Rauner leaves, be it in January, or 5 years from now… lemme know when you can get that GOP… the Murphys and Beaubiens together… I’ll be there.
- DarkHorse - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:21 pm:
The kind of GOP governors that are in position to get re-elected in blue states - see Mass and Maryland, arguably more blue than Illinois - have “work together, non-ideological” - brands. Rauner’s brand is the opposite of work together. Absent a scandal, don’t see how he pulls out a win, though it might be close.
- Honeybear - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:38 pm:
The pandering to the African American vote is perfidy as I see it for two reasons
1) Jimmy Odoms resignation told us all we need to know about the veracity of Rauners commitment to the AA community.
2) One of the strongest job sectors for AA is local and state government. A majority of Council 31 AFSCME’s are African American. They know Rauner is against them
And have not
Left the union in Rauners
Naked bid to destroy unions
They are pissed as hell
That he thinks they are stupit enough
To fall for his “pay raise” temptation.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 12:40 pm:
Let’s note that Skillicorn is also waiting for “Red Dawn” to happen… so sometimes the places he comes from in his own thinking is… questionable.
- TKMH - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 2:20 pm:
After this cycle, the ILGOP will stop being the party of Kirk and Rauner, and will become the party of Ives and Skillicorn whole cloth—and he and his ilk know it too.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 3:58 pm:
Rauner is not in charge of this race. Pritzker is. JB needs to not alienate half of the voters to win.
That means Pritzker has to stop lying about cage children, stop calling political opponents foul names, and stop pushing left on issues.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Friday, Jul 20, 18 @ 4:27 pm:
==That means Pritzker has to stop lying about cage children,==
You didn’t seem to mind Rauner’s outright dishonest statements about Pat Quinn in 2013, not his untruths about Pritzker now, but it’s a problem when the tactic is directed at him?