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Rate Rauner’s new digital ad
Wednesday, Jul 25, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * Press release…
* The two brief clips of Pritzker in this ad have him saying “We need to find out what the facts are” and “We need to make sure that all the facts come out.” I just don’t get how that’s supposed to be a negative. The on-screen messages do try to make the case, however, and a lot of people watch these online ads without sound, so maybe all that makes this ad work. I dunno, though. You be the judge… Also, they haven’t yet settled on a tagline to unify all these ads, except the single word “Madigan.” A catchy, memorable phrase is the usual route, but maybe that one word is enough considering how massively unpopular the guy is.
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- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:22 am:
While I take your criticisms of the ad, I think your…caveats to the criticism?…are more correct than not. I also think the distortion effects on JB’s face are a good touch. It’s not a game changer, but not a failure, either.
- Flat Bed Ford - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:23 am:
Madigan has underestimated the impact of his me too problem. This will play very well in suburbia. Some of the Pritzker sound bites are a little weak but overall an effective ad.
- Real - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:24 am:
With Rauner caught up giving out noney to voters this loses all credibility.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:25 am:
I keep seeing these ads, and I’ll get to the rating and my thoughts on it shortly, but you’d think in online ads the Rauner Crew would at least make a feeble attempt to make Bruce more likable.
If the decision is Bruce just isn’t going to be likable now or in November, I can’t see how Rauner, now with McCann on the ballot too, can get enough voters to choose the “lesser of two evils” when Rauner is the worst Republican governor in America in a state Clinton won by 16 points, and as the most vulnerable governor in America, see a constituency, since Rauner has no constituency to speak of as an incumbent.
Which leads to my rating.
It’s a “B-“
“Why?”
Rauner has no constituency, and if Rauner, unlikable as Rauner is, cant get people to think of HIM as someone who deserves a second term, “Madigan” is really all they have, they’ll use it, here they use it pretty effectively with the target being not only Madigan but the #MeToo movement, is this message strong enough “here” to move voters who dislike Rauner “everywhere”
Rauner is down 9, will this ad make Rauner a choice to come back to, as failed as Rauner has been as an incumbent?
Dunno.
It’s a “B-“
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:26 am:
===overall an effective ad===
How?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:30 am:
–“We need to find out what the facts are” and “We need to make sure that all the facts come out.” I just don’t get how that’s supposed to be a negative.–
Facts are certainly frowned upon in some circles these days.
The contribution to Madigan is the strongest element. Hard to rate until they chop eight seconds off to get on the TV box.
Why do a :38 if you’re testing for broadcast? Tighten it up and see what you really have.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:34 am:
It’s a solid effort with a strong narrative. The people who this issue resonates strongly with are smart and alert. And resolute. At the risk of being portrayed as the whisperer yet again…this is coming up regularly in the suburban precincts. It’s probably a little bigger than they think. This ad is reacting to some polling I’m sure.
The Dem mail pieces are now stressing “we’ll put sex predators away”. The irony isn’t lost that they have a house (and senate) of their own to clean up. That resolute group out there isn’t amused.
This isn’t great, but it’s good enough.
- Colin O'Scopy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:36 am:
How tragic it is for the Illinois Republican Party. Not only are they fighting an enthusiasm gap with the voters, it now appears that their own governor lacks the enthusiasm needed to run a robust race. Rauner seems to be phoning it in. I wonder if he wants to get re-elected or is he simply resigned to his fate?
- Just Sayin ... - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:36 am:
Guess the radio silence is over and now Rainer believes enough time has passed that we forget his appointment of Ken Dunkin to the MWRD board who was in the center of the Madigan COF allegations. Is Dunkin still on that board?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:37 am:
===this is coming up regularly in the suburban precincts. It’s probably a little bigger than they think. This ad is reacting to some polling I’m sure.===
Full stop.
Which pretend person are you, today.
The mild-mannered precinct captain saying things on whims…
… the insider who actually sees polling, but can’t say you see polling so you make up this caricature and then say things like…
“…this is coming up regularly in the suburban precincts.”
Or…
“It’s probably a little bigger than they think. This ad is reacting to some polling I’m sure.”
Pick. A. Lane.
- Texas Red - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:42 am:
C for originality - but a B- overall. With Madigan polling so incredibly poorly and with the Mapes news it makes sense to link JB with the stink of MJM. Rauners team will play to the idea of voting against JB/MJM rather than for him….
“Madigan is 68 percent total disapprove with 49 percent who strongly disapprove and 19 percent who somewhat disapprove.
https://news.siu.edu/2018/03/030218-psppi-job-approval-poll.html
- Annonin' - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:44 am:
One word is enough …IF …. you are working to build that 9-12 point deficit in the polls. But maybe GovJunk is hoping his press pop on the CashBash will help. Dual track messagin’ Very savvy
- Frank talks - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:45 am:
This is a rough ad but not unexpected.
I’m guessing the Governor’s polling shows he’s in big trouble, not the 9 points IMA showed, as this is more of an October ad to move those last couple points not a 100+ days out ad.
This is a desperation, it’s almost out of reach, how can I stop the train, type ad.
Not an- I’m fighting for Illinois and getting stuff done reelect me ad.
- Excessively Rabid - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:46 am:
I can’t watch these things, but wanted to comment on OW’s comment. I thought worst Republican governor in America was kind of strong, but it turns out da google confirms it. You have to go way down the list to get another candidate.
- Jocko - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:47 am:
The ad is slick, but it’s thin gruel. It’s seems easier to play “Six Degrees of Mike Madigan” than tout Bruce’s current (or future) accomplishments as Governor.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:47 am:
===The people who this issue resonates strongly with are smart and alert. And resolute.===
Pffftt. If so, then both you and Rauner underestimate the damage President Trump is doing to your party. If these voters are incensed that Madigan’s operation behaved badly toward some women, what must they think of our President?
This ad is throwing spaghetti against the wall to see what might stick. OTOH, while Trump is apparently immune, I think a lot of your voters are going to take out their anger on anybody with an R next to their name in November.
More swinging and missing from Team Rauner. Does he even want to be re-elected?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:52 am:
===I thought worst Republican governor in America was kind of strong, but it turns out da google confirms it.===
Whole cover story, cartoon caricature, Rauner embarrassed again.
To be even more clear….
I gave the “B-“ as a continued theme of “Madigan” factored in. Without that continued thread, it’s a “C”, and needed to get tighter to make it an ad that has sting standing alone.
- DuPage - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:00 am:
Pritzker and Madigan should return fire. The “brave woman” theme is applicable to the Rauner rant of “I will bankrupt her with legal fees”.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:09 am:
==The people who this issue resonates strongly with are smart and alert. And resolute. ==
…and are already voting for Rauner. Black and white stills and spooky music isn’t going to be enough when no one likes the messenger and the message is “oh my gosh, can you believe that he wanted the facts to come out?” Preaching to his ever-dwindling choir, but who knows, may convince a few conservative women to forgive him his support for taxpayer funded abortion.
Give it a C
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:25 am:
==The mild-mannered precinct captain saying things on whims…==
I have never portrayed myself as “mild-mannered”. lol.
Lovable and humble, maybe? I’m hearing it alot in the field in the suburbs, Willy. That’s all.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:28 am:
==- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 10:47 am:==
Suburban Woman are paying close attention to this issue. That’s the only point I’m making.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:30 am:
Oh boy… you want to go with this?
===I’m hearing it alot in the field in the suburbs,… . That’s all.===
… when you typed this…
===- A guy - Tuesday, Jul 3, 18 @ 3:02 pm
…
For a guy who doesn’t know what polling or precincts or any other thing I might have access to, you’re sure pretty presumptuous.===
Which phony do you want to be today?
The schtick is tiring.
The mild-mannered precinct captain saying things on whims or the insider who actually sees polling, but can’t say you see polling so you make up with this caricature.
Pick a lane.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:31 am:
===Suburban Woman are paying close attention to this issue.===
Given the leader of your party and the man who dominates the nightly news, you are confirming that November will be an electoral bloodbath for Republicans in Illinois.
- DeseDemDose - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:32 am:
Bruce stating, “I will bankrupt her with legal fees”. Perfect retort ad.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:49 am:
The Daily Double!
Willy, I’m hearing it. That’s all.
47,
Women in Illinois, specifically in the suburbs, can and have compartmentalized their feelings about Donald Trump and their own state government. It may be different where you live in the city (it likely is) Out in the burbs, they’re paying attention. Only yesterday “the focus has changed” on the new panel reviewing sexual discrimination and harassment. The focus hasn’t changed for this group of very concerned women. To varying degrees, they resent it.
Whatever feelings they harbor for Trump, doesn’t excuse the state officials. I’ve suggested they’re smart. Because they are.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:49 am:
C
Pritzker’s cameos within this ad, counters and blunts the charges made in the ad.
Crummy ad.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:50 am:
And Willy,
I should have had you keep track of my Rhythm Schedule. You’re just that good.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:52 am:
===I should have had you keep track of my Rhythm Schedule. You’re just that good.===
Why?
You support the governor who arguably signed the most liberal state abortion bill in America.
Anything else?
- Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:15 pm:
It makes the Rauner campaign look like they don’t want to spend any money on digital ads. Which is weird to me since all the actual live, broadcast tv I watch anymore is Jeopardy when I happen to be around a tv at 3:30 in the afternoon. And I’m a boomer. People younger than me aren’t going to see tv ads.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:26 pm:
–Women in Illinois, specifically in the suburbs, can and have compartmentalized their feelings about Donald Trump and their own state government.–
Seriously, are you doing self-parody now? Because it’s extra-special hilarious.
How can you possibly believe you have any basis for making such a sweeping statement?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:29 pm:
===I’m hearing it. That’s all.===
You know, anecdotal ain’t polling.
You keep up your schtick, walking that super precinct.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:47 pm:
===Only yesterday “the focus has changed” on the new panel reviewing sexual discrimination and harassment.===
Unless they are sick, twisted souls with too much time on their hands and they can spend all day here, like us, you are out of your ever-loving mind if you think any average voter, suburban, female or otherwise, has any idea what panel you’re talking about.
It’s not self-parody. It’s self-delusion.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:49 pm:
==Women in Illinois, specifically in the suburbs, can and have compartmentalized their feelings about Donald Trump and their own state government. It may be different where you live in the city (it likely is) Out in the burbs, they’re paying attention. Only yesterday “the focus has changed” on the new panel reviewing sexual discrimination and harassment. The focus hasn’t changed for this group of very concerned women. To varying degrees, they resent it.==
This is a remarkably complicated, lengthy, and nuanced line of thinking for voters to have divulged to a strange canvasser in the last 24 hours.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:53 pm:
===This is a remarkably complicated, lengthy, and nuanced line of thinking for voters to have divulged to a strange canvasser in the last 24 hours.===
A mild-mannered, ordinary canvasser gets so much from that super sized precinct?
Anecdotal takes that have polling response nuances?
- WSJ Paywall - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:56 pm:
=Women in Illinois, specifically in the suburbs, can and have compartmentalized their feelings about Donald Trump and their own state government.=
Have deep roots in the suburbs and can this is absolutely incorrect. Just anecdotally, I’ve never seen such deep enthusiasm for Democrats in the Western suburbs, particularly among women. Even in 2008.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:16 pm:
==Anecdotal takes that have polling response nuances?==
Yep. Something like that.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:17 pm:
==A mild-mannered, ordinary canvasser gets so much from that super sized precinct?==
If I were his FO, I’d be really upset that he’s having such long conversations. Gotta move on to the next house, man.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:17 pm:
===Yep. Something like that.===
So it’s a phony caricature you created.
Got it.
lol
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:30 pm:
Why would a majority of Illinois voters want a candidate like JB who is completely incapable of standing up to Mike Madigan?
I guess the 20 percent of voters who support the Speaker like it.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:10 pm:
Yep. It’s just easier to agree with you. Because everything you say turns out to be true. Except of course, the current Gov and current Pres. But, hey, you get the big ones right. lol.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:17 pm:
Oh - A Guy -, LOL
You and Breen and righteous indignation and phoniness.
Funny thing, I admitted i was wrong the day after the election. Didn’t hide, no excuse…
But you go, you and Mr. Breen. Phony is indeed gonna phony.
The Ad, to bring this back, and your take… it’s ok to be privy to things, it’s phony to sell it like you’re a man of the people.
This ad is kinda like that. Rauner can’t sell himself to actually BE likable… so
- Frank talks - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:18 pm:
Why would a majority of Illinois voters want a candidate like Rauner who is completely scared and incapable of standing up to the President?
McCann will be there to welcome him, he’s the leader of the Illinois GOP and he can’t be bothered to see the President when he comes to his state.
Got it
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:38 pm:
==Why would a majority of Illinois voters want a candidate like JB who is completely incapable of standing up to Mike Madigan?==
Because the alternative has entirely failed at standing up to Mike Madigan and has a 27% approval rating.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:42 pm:
===Why would a majority of Illinois voters want a candidate like… who is completely incapable of standing up to Mike Madigan?===
Bruce Rauner signed a budget that certified and verified the need of a 32% tax increase with zero reforms.
If that’s not capitulating to Madigan, I dunno what is, lol
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 4:01 pm:
==Why would a majority of Illinois voters==
Well, we already know a majority of Illinois voters don’t want the current Governor.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 5:49 pm:
To the post:
The ad is bad. I will give it a gentleman’s C-.
Rich is correct, “Mike Madigan” is Rauner’s message. Everything else in the ad, including the mention of JB Pritzker, gets in the way of that message. That is a fail.
Strategically, “Mike Madigan” might be their best message right now, but I agree with OW it is not a message they can expect to carry through to November and win. It does not unify Republicans, it does not move undecideds, and it is not going to suppress enough Democrats to close a 9 point gap for a governor with a 27 percent approval rating.
Plus, the “Mike Madigan” message is sandwiched between video of Rauner at an event where his pal is handing out $100 bills to voters and news releases claiming Illinois has added 200K jobs.
Since you are not in charge Governor, you are just “Trying to get in charge”, should we be thanking Mike Madigan for those job gains?
This operation over the past year reminds me of the clickbait stories about botched celebrity plastic surgeries. Every time they try to correct the last botched makeover, the result is even less appealing.