Mendoza’s July poll showed she had a 22-point lead
Tuesday, Sep 11, 2018
Well, that was certainly a flattering piece. Way to go, Mendoza camp.
* I asked for a polling memo and it turns out the numbers in the above story only reflect a two-way contest, not the actual three-way matchup. And, more importantly, despite their portrayal, these are not current numbers in any way. The survey was conducted way back in July…
A few quick takeaways. But keep in mind that this is just one poll taken for the comptroller and it was conducted in late July and all we have to go on is this cherry-picked memo. Also, this is a three-way race so she doesn’t need 50 percent plus one to win.
1) The poll may be old, but the memo was apparently crafted on September 9th, so the language is deliberately skewed to highlight a potential Chicago mayor’s race. But, if the numbers are close to accurate, she’s pretty well-liked in the city and by liberals and African-Americans. That’s a powerful combo. Notice, however, they didn’t include Latinx voters. But, again, while old, those are not discouraging numbers at all. And since Rauner is so wildly unpopular in the city, she can definitely use her constant fights with him to her advantage if she runs for mayor.
2) The Libertarian candidate seemed to be hurting Senger more than Mendoza, which might not be good news for the rest of the statewides, either. Mendoza’s one-on-one margin was 18 and her three-way margin over Senger was 22. Um, twenty-two? And that was in July, before national trends shifted even further away from Republicans. Hey, they can also shift back. I’m just sayin: 22. (And if she was up by 22 in July, just imagine what Jesse White’s lead might’ve been over the guy who whined again this week about how he can’t get any traction because the Chicago media doesn’t take him seriously.)
3) Senger had 13 percent statewide familiarity with just 9 percent favorability in July. Yikes. Even for July, that’s a yikes. She’s reported a mere $11,200 in contributions this quarter (plus an in-kind of $1,634 for an event room rental and food), compared to $340,100 for Mendoza, who was sitting on $1.4 million at the end of June, compared to just $32K for Senger. In other words, she’s definitely gonna need some Rauner bucks, but there might not be enough Rauner bucks in the world to win that one. Plus, he’s so far given no indication that big cash is forthcoming. He’s funding himself and the House Republicans and throwing some money at the attorney general’s race. But he’s also been clearly saying that others need to “chip in” to his effort.
4) While Mendoza had a big lead in July and currently has a decent pile of cash, there could be a temptation to sit on her advantage and hoard her dough for next year. One election at a time. The Republicans have tried to make a tiny bit of hay out of her possible mayoral bid, but that could intensify. Aside from “Because… Madigan!” it’s all they really seem to have. Will she serve out her full term if elected in November? Nobody has yet asked her that question.
Anything else you noticed or thought?