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Mendoza’s July poll showed she had a 22-point lead

Tuesday, Sep 11, 2018

* Politico

Labor has been good to Susana Mendoza, who’s expected to file nearly $260,000 into her comptroller’s campaign account today. The bulk of that—about $178,000—is from unions. The latest infusion of funding comes from A-1 donations and will bring her cash on hand to $1.6 million for the comptroller’s race.

Mendoza’s also as a possible candidate for mayor, though she’s declined to say whether she’s running. Mendoza filed the comptroller campaign donations while on an extended trip to Washington, D.C., to engage donors and policy makers.

Mendoza has the luxury to poke around at the idea of a mayoral run as she has a commanding lead over her Republican challenger for comptroller—Mendoza sits at 52 percent to Darlene Senger’s 34 percent, according to a poll conducted by Global Strategy Group. Most of Mendoza’s support (71 percent) is from Chicago.

Well, that was certainly a flattering piece. Way to go, Mendoza camp.

* I asked for a polling memo and it turns out the numbers in the above story only reflect a two-way contest, not the actual three-way matchup. And, more importantly, despite their portrayal, these are not current numbers in any way. The survey was conducted way back in July

Key findings from Global Strategy Group’s July survey of 600 likely general election voters in Illinois are as follows:

    • Susana Mendoza holds a strong lead in the race for Illinois Comptroller. Mendoza currently leads a multi-candidate ballot by double-digits (47% Mendoza, 25% Senger, 9% Ball, and 19% undecided) as well as the two-way ballot with Darlene Senger where Mendoza breaks the 50% threshold (52% Mendoza vs. 34% Senger). Democrats (84%), particularly liberal Democrats (89%), voters in the city of Chicago (71%), African-American voters (65%), and voters under the age of 45 (60%) are driving Mendoza’s lead on the two-way ballot.

    • Mendoza is better known and more well-regarded than Senger. Those who are familiar with Mendoza feel warmly toward her (43% familiar; 29% favorable vs. 14% unfavorable). That gives Mendoza a 30-point name ID advantage over Darlene Senger (13% familiar; 9% favorable vs. 4% unfavorable). Mendoza’s favorability is driven largely by her popularity in Chicago where almost six in ten voters are familiar (57% familiar) and those who know her like her (41% favorable vs. 16% unfavorable). The same is true for Democrats (54% familiar; 46% favorable vs. 8% unfavorable), liberal Democrats (62% familiar; 51% favorable vs. 11% unfavorable), and African- American voters (51% familiar; 35% favorable vs. 15% unfavorable).

ABOUT THIS POLL: Global Strategy Group conducted a live telephone survey of 600 Illinois general election voters from July 23- July 26, 2018. The results of this survey have a margin of error of +/-4.0%. Care has been taken to ensure that the survey is weighted to reflect the expected makeup of the 2018 general electorate.

A few quick takeaways. But keep in mind that this is just one poll taken for the comptroller and it was conducted in late July and all we have to go on is this cherry-picked memo. Also, this is a three-way race so she doesn’t need 50 percent plus one to win.

1) The poll may be old, but the memo was apparently crafted on September 9th, so the language is deliberately skewed to highlight a potential Chicago mayor’s race. But, if the numbers are close to accurate, she’s pretty well-liked in the city and by liberals and African-Americans. That’s a powerful combo. Notice, however, they didn’t include Latinx voters. But, again, while old, those are not discouraging numbers at all. And since Rauner is so wildly unpopular in the city, she can definitely use her constant fights with him to her advantage if she runs for mayor.

2) The Libertarian candidate seemed to be hurting Senger more than Mendoza, which might not be good news for the rest of the statewides, either. Mendoza’s one-on-one margin was 18 and her three-way margin over Senger was 22. Um, twenty-two? And that was in July, before national trends shifted even further away from Republicans. Hey, they can also shift back. I’m just sayin: 22. (And if she was up by 22 in July, just imagine what Jesse White’s lead might’ve been over the guy who whined again this week about how he can’t get any traction because the Chicago media doesn’t take him seriously.)

3) Senger had 13 percent statewide familiarity with just 9 percent favorability in July. Yikes. Even for July, that’s a yikes. She’s reported a mere $11,200 in contributions this quarter (plus an in-kind of $1,634 for an event room rental and food), compared to $340,100 for Mendoza, who was sitting on $1.4 million at the end of June, compared to just $32K for Senger. In other words, she’s definitely gonna need some Rauner bucks, but there might not be enough Rauner bucks in the world to win that one. Plus, he’s so far given no indication that big cash is forthcoming. He’s funding himself and the House Republicans and throwing some money at the attorney general’s race. But he’s also been clearly saying that others need to “chip in” to his effort.

4) While Mendoza had a big lead in July and currently has a decent pile of cash, there could be a temptation to sit on her advantage and hoard her dough for next year. One election at a time. The Republicans have tried to make a tiny bit of hay out of her possible mayoral bid, but that could intensify. Aside from “Because… Madigan!” it’s all they really seem to have. Will she serve out her full term if elected in November? Nobody has yet asked her that question.

Anything else you noticed or thought?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

51 Comments
  1. - The Captain - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 1:33 pm:

    It’s one thing to need Rauner’s big bucks but it’s another thing to completely stop trying. This is a top tier statewide race and Senger’s fundraising is anemic compared to middle of the road state house races. The muscle memory for how to campaign is completely gone. What happens next cycle if the Rauner’s aren’t mailing in checks from Italy?

    Senger is a former legislator and former IPI staffer. She has access to a network to build starter money and then she and her fundraising staff should be doing what every other successful non-self funding candidate does: calling strangers and asking them for money. Republicans whine and whine about how the Democrats have rigged the game but just about every time you actually look at what’s going on you see repeated examples of Republican campaign negligence and incompetence. They’re not doing the minimum basic things necessary to help themselves.


  2. - DuPage Bard - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 1:36 pm:

    Why wouldn’t she jump? Unless Durbin isn’t running in ‘20? She’s in a safe seat.
    If she goes and wins and Rauner is Governor would he appoint Kenny Dunkin to the Comptroller office?
    It also sets up a special election scenario for 2020 in a Presidential year for a new Comptroller.
    If JB is Governor who would he appoint to that seat? Biss?


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 1:41 pm:

    Since Mendoza won, tough to find mistakes to the governing or the politics.

    The real noticeable part of the transformation from the Munger counter candidate to arguably one of the best base operation in Illinois politics is Mendoza understanding her messaging and how she goes about her business needed the right bunch to allow her to be her, and back her up with a follow up punch that gives her even more zip.

    Abdon and his crew, it’s a treat to read their work and support Mendoza as she’s doing Mendoza things, and this crew understands who they are, they don’t overreach, and use her talents and passions to shoo away talk of a climber or opportunist.

    If you think on it, her last legislative session, and her legislative accomplishments, I dunno if Candidate Mendoza coulda done all that, but working as she has with the group and then letting Mendoza be herself and supporting where thoughts need filling… whew.

    It’s Mendoza and Preckwinkle. That’s who have my attention,

    Two totally different crews and people, but it’s Mendoza’s passion coupled with the right people in the right spots doing the right work… tough to see who could beat her for Comptroller right now, Darlene or another.


  4. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 1:59 pm:

    Unless she wants to retire as mayor why go there? As a Republican who really has no one to vote for state wide she has my vote. I have hunk she would be an excellent governor if she wants to wait. But as said above a U sSenate rub me got be in the future. When Rauner is gone who picks up pieces of the Republican Party? Walsh? Ives? God help the Republican s.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:03 pm:

    ===Unless she wants to retire as mayor why go there?===

    Where I agree with Rahm Emanuel…

    Five best elected jobs in America;

    President of the United States.
    Mayor of New York
    Governor of California
    Governor of New York

    Mayor of Chicago

    The job now is difficult, treacherous, probably thankless, and will be more bad than good for a while, but Mayor of Chicago… it’s still a top 5 job.


  6. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:08 pm:

    Preckwinkle v. Mendoza would be a fascinating race; superficially, they have a lot of similarities (minority women, liberal but comfortable with the establishment, etc.).

    And if Mendoza runs and wins, and Jesse White retires mid-term, the statewide ticket would radically change in a pretty short time.


  7. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:10 pm:

    –Senger is a former legislator and former IPI staffer. She has access to a network to build starter money…–

    Not so you’d notice. She’s raised oogats.

    It’s September — what’s she waiting for, if she has the chops to raise money?

    If she coulda, she woulda, by now.


  8. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:11 pm:

    She thinks she can be mayor after two years as comptroller?

    No way. She’s nuttier than Mr. Peanut.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:14 pm:

    ===She thinks she can be mayor after two years as comptroller?===

    Meh.

    Rahm was a congressman.

    “M” Daley was a State’s Attorney and a state Senator.

    Sawyer, Washington, Byrne?

    Mendoza has run and won city-wide, Preckwinkle, run and win county-wide…

    David Orr?


  10. - City Zen - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:15 pm:

    ==She’s nuttier than Mr. Peanut.==

    In other words, perfectly qualified.


  11. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:19 pm:

    ==She thinks she can be mayor after two years as comptroller?==

    Pretty sure she thinks she can be Mayor after winning an election for the job, which is the only real qualification.


  12. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:27 pm:

    ===after two years as comptroller?===

    She was city clerk and a legislator too. How much government experience did your fave have before he was elected president? Why should she be held to a higher standard for a much lower office?


  13. - Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:32 pm:

    Am I the only one surprised by Senger’s 34 percent? Can’t believe it’s that high.


  14. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:34 pm:

    ===She’s nuttier than Mr. Peanut===

    You’d have to be to want to be the next Mayor.


  15. - anon - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:44 pm:

    “..well liked by liberals and African Americans…” Maybe liberals but wouldn’t bet the ranch on A.A. Especially, if it’s a choice between her and Toni. Have you reviewed her record on criminal justice?


  16. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:50 pm:

    “my fave”?

    Rauner was never my fave.
    I hope you’re not referring to the current president.


  17. - Boone's is Back - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 2:51 pm:

    ===Well, that was certainly a flattering piece. Way to go, Mendoza camp.===

    LOL- nice job Abdon.


  18. - Howdy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 3:02 pm:

    Rich: Just because a poll is “old”, doesn’t mean the numbers aren’t accurate. All polls are old. They are a snapshot as things stand at that time. But let’s be honest, nothing materially have changed in the Comptroller’s race so my very educated guess is the numbers hold. She should run for mayor because she is exactly what Chicago needs. When she was in the GA, she took on gangs. Chicago needs a firecracker like her.


  19. - SaulGoodman - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 3:18 pm:

    **Am I the only one surprised by Senger’s 34 percent? Can’t believe it’s that high.**

    Nah… that’s roughly the % of partisan Republicans in IL.


  20. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:04 pm:

    Mendoza is perfectly suited for Comptroller and doing a great job. She is not mayoral material.

    Comptroller has the benefit of not really ever having to decide anything while constantly playing the gadfly. She is great at that.

    Mayor of Chicago is very different. She also is a creation of the Speaker, full stop. He is the reason she is the Comptroller and Dan Biss is not. I think it would be problematic for the Speaker to have that type of influence on the 5th Floor. Things worked best when RMD had his own gravitas and didn’t need to rely on him.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:10 pm:

    ===Things worked best when RMD had his own gravitas and didn’t need to rely on him.===

    … except when Daley needed anything from Springfield… “other than that”… LOL

    ===Comptroller has the benefit of not really ever having to decide anything while constantly playing the gadfly. She is great at that.===

    … and yet, when choosing sides, Mendoza’s legislative agenda got passed, some by utterly ridiculous majorities.

    ===Mayor of Chicago is very different. She also is a creation of the Speaker, full stop.==

    Mendoza… asked and answered… ask former Comptroller Munger and her Chicago numbers against Mendoza.

    Also… Mendoza has been making a name for herself,


  22. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:23 pm:

    What legislation has Mendoza passed without the Speaker’s full support and shoulder behind it? What was even remotely controversial?

    Are you citing Mendoza’s Chicago election results against a rich Republican from the North Shore as evidence of something? Come on.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:27 pm:

    ===What was even remotely controversial?===

    It was to Rauner, yet, it passed, some with veto proof majorities.

    “Speaker Madigan and the GOP members giving veto proof majorities he controls”

    ===What legislation has Mendoza passed without the Speaker’s full support and shoulder behind it?===

    Explain the Senate and the vote totals. They were well beyond party lines. Bipartisan even.

    ===Are you citing Mendoza’s Chicago election results against a rich Republican from the North Shore as evidence of something?===

    As in college football.., you can only beat who is on the schedule.

    lol


  24. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:32 pm:

    Mendoza also has run city-wide.

    Don’t discount that.


  25. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:39 pm:

    In her tenure in the House, and as Comptroller, has she ever bucked the Speaker?

    When Ohio State beats Ball State by 30, people know better than to brag about it.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:43 pm:

    ===In her tenure in the House, and as Comptroller, has she ever bucked the Speaker?===

    LOL

    Asked and answered.

    Munger lost an election with that thought.

    Keep trying thou.

    ===When Ohio State beats Ball State by 30, people know better than to brag about it.===

    Yet, when Appalachian State beats Michigan at the Big House…

    What else ya got? This is tired old road.

    If anything you are trying to peddle was true, Rauner would’ve tried to beat Mendoza. He’s not trying this November.


  27. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:50 pm:

    Susana has run citywide twice but was only opposed once. She definitely has the troops - it helps to have the heavies behind you. Munger is not at the caliber of the people being discussed for Mayor.

    I can tell you like her, I like her, too. She won’t wind up running if TP gets in because the powers that be won’t permit it and they’ve gotten her this far. Just my two cents.

    Also who is App State and who is Michigan in your analogy?


  28. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 5:58 pm:

    ===I can tell you like her===

    Nope. I like the politics of this game. It’s racing form sketch of what that race *could* be. Don’t make it about me, you haven’t refuted anything I wrote.

    ===Munger is not at the caliber of the people being discussed for Mayor.===

    Willie Wilson? Oh boy, lol

    ===She won’t wind up running if TP gets in because the powers that be…===

    No one is going to tell Mendoza or Preckwinkle what to do. What do you base this on, a John Kass column… he’s running too, wrote a whole column about it too… “the Chicago way”…

    ===Also who is App State and who is Michigan in your analogy?===

    You can only play and beat who is on your schedule. Keep up,


  29. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:02 pm:

    Kass hasn’t written anything relevant in 9 years. If you knew Chicago a bit, you would know that.

    I’m not talking about Willy Wilson. I’m talking about Gutierrez, Preckwinkle, Quigley.

    Nobody will tell TP what do to, that’s for sure. But Springfield people know that Comptroller was not something Susana really wanted to do…


  30. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:03 pm:

    And I write the above as an avowed Kass fan, he just seems to have lost his voice a little when Daley quit.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:06 pm:

    ===I’m not talking about Willy Wilson. I’m talking about Gutierrez, Preckwinkle, Quigley.===

    But Willie Wilson IS running. So, there’s that.

    ===But Springfield people know that Comptroller was not something Susana really wanted to do…===

    Really. Huh. Interesting. Glad you told me, I had no idea.

    ===If you knew Chicago a bit, you would know that.===

    I’m new to Illinois. Any help you can offer would be great.

    I thought Kass was a big deal. He’s not. Wow. Huh.


  32. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:14 pm:

    ===And I write the above as an avowed Kass fan, he just seems to have lost his voice a little when Daley quit.===

    Me? Being new and all, I’m a huge fan of Kristen McQueary. She has her finger on things.


  33. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:28 pm:

    I’ll always be #TeamFran for Chicago and Rich, obviously, for state stuff which I am sure you agree with.

    I also think we can agree that Susana is good but I think you are oversimplifying things. You brought up previous Mayors and minimized their experience which I think was wrongheaded.

    “Rahm was a congressman.” - and COS to Citywide hero.

    ““M” Daley was a State’s Attorney and a state Senator.” - and son of the longest serving mayor (previously).

    Washington was a state senator, a congressman, and had a towering intellect that has been unmatched from that office since.

    I agree with you on Byrne. She was a brawler, upstart, feisty, loved to take on a fight. How did that mayoralty turn out for us…


  34. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:34 pm:

    ===“Rahm was a congressman.” - and COS to Citywide hero.===

    Still, but a congressman. Rahm himself in his announcement talks about his own electoral history.

    ===““M” Daley was a State’s Attorney and a state Senator.” - and son of the longest serving mayor (previously).===

    Who lost to Washington, a felon, a congressman, and Byrne, who beat Bilandic “because snow”… keeping it all simple.

    ===Washington was a state senator, a congressman, and had a towering intellect that has been unmatched from that office since.==

    But won as Daley and Byrne split the vote, making timing probably a better mitigating factor.

    ===How did that mayoralty turn out for us…===

    (Ron Howard voice: She served one term)

    I have a lot to learn, I know that.

    Thanks for getting me up to speed.


  35. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:40 pm:

    So any predictions on how this race shakes out or do you want to continue subjecting us to your pedantic political haikus?


  36. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:42 pm:

    ===or do you want to continue subjecting us to your pedantic political haikus?===

    That’s really my bread and butter…

    I have no idea how it’ll shake out, but only two candidates have my attention, Preckwinkle and Mendoza.

    I try to follow the axiom of one election at a time, but that’s less haiku and more cliche…


  37. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:45 pm:

    That’s a respectable and fair position. I’d widen the field a little bit but agree with the premise.

    I’m more curious of when folks start officially diving in and whether there is any advantage to doing it soon. Rahm waited until the first week of Oct or thereabouts. I think the end of next week seems a bit better this time around.


  38. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:45 pm:

    I should say *the 2010 Rahm waited…


  39. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:49 pm:

    ===Rahm waited until the first week of Oct or thereabouts.===

    Rahm was busy looking for the wedding dress. You can’t fault him for the timing.


  40. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 6:55 pm:

    Have to wonder if he would do it all over again…


  41. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:02 pm:

    ===Have to wonder if he would do it all over again…===

    Couldn’t stay in DC, he needed to land somewhere, Daley walks, it “worked out”… it was the second term that did Rahm in, after squeaking by with Chuy


  42. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:04 pm:

    Laquan took down two heavyweight electeds, just took a little longer for the second one.


  43. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:08 pm:

    I wouldn’t call Anita Alvarez a heavyweight by any measure, but I’m new to this so…


  44. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:17 pm:

    In the village of the blind, the one eyed man is king.


  45. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:24 pm:

    ===In the village of the blind, the one eyed man is king.===

    Still never made Alvarez a “king”.

    What does that make Richard Devine? lol


  46. - Gompers Park - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:25 pm:

    Lol good question. Always a mystery to me how he lasted.


  47. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:27 pm:

    Devine was a “M” Daley assistant state’s attorney.

    I’m just wingin’ this, as you know, I’m new to Illinois


  48. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 7:29 pm:

    Plus, Devine was part of the “Punch 10” sweep that took out Jack O’Malley… or something like that…


  49. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 8:16 pm:

    To bring it back to Mendoza, and to the post,

    ===Mendoza breaks the 50% threshold (52% Mendoza vs. 34% Senger). Democrats (84%), particularly liberal Democrats (89%), voters in the city of Chicago (71%), African-American voters (65%), and voters under the age of 45 (60%) are driving Mendoza’s lead on the two-way ballot.===

    The 50% threshold in a “two way” poll allows Mendoza’s polling strength to be seen in a “majority” way, solidifying and taking away the “where would undecideds go”. Neat lil bit to sell her above half. Smart.


  50. - Shytown - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 9:43 pm:

    I ran out of popcorn observing this post…


  51. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 11, 18 @ 10:35 pm:

    –Kass hasn’t written anything relevant in 9 years.–

    Be fair. The Two Eddies just lifted him out of his high-chair to see if he could walk and feed himself.

    He could not.

    But he’s an outstanding chronicler of what he sees on the Fox TV box. If you want a review of cable news grievances from three days ago, he’s tops.

    You didn’t wonder why Kass — on Trib Page Two, for all these years — never put a glove on Fast Eddie or Burke?

    If you can’t spot the chump the first time the deal goes round, you’re it.


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