Dem poll has Casten leading Roskam by 3
Wednesday, Sep 19, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tina Sfondeles with the scoop…
A new poll commissioned by Democrat Sean Casten’s congressional campaign finds U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., under water for the first time in a hotly contested race.
The poll, conducted by the Garin Hart Yang Research Group on behalf of Casten’s campaign, finds Casten ahead 47 to 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll was taken Sept. 8-10 of 402 likely voters in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District, which covers suburbs in Cook, Lake, Kane, McHenry and Dupage counties. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Casten’s campaign framed the poll as proof that Roskam’s spending in the race isn’t working. The campaign released a summary of its findings but not all the data collected. The poll also found 39 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Roskam, with 33 percent of voters saying they had a favorable view. […]
The poll also asked voters about Trump. Poll takers said that “nearly three in five voters,” or 58 percent, viewed Trump negatively in the district, which they claim is the worst ratings recorded for Trump since they began polling in the district.
More deets at the link.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:00 am:
When a Dem poll paid by the Democratic nominee shows only a 3 point lead, I’d be ill.
5 points - ok
10 points - I’d pay for that.
- Colenel Mustard - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:09 am:
The Blue Wave is hitting DuPage hard. Expect Casten’s lead to increase when more voters discover that Roskam supports Trump’s agenda 94% of the time, passed a property tax hike, doesn’t believe a woman should have any control over reproductive decisions and refuses to meet with constituents on issues of concern. Add in JB’s money and what the House and Senate Dem caucuses are spending in DuPage, we may be seeing the beginning of a Bluenami.
- A guy - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:09 am:
I guess if you do enough of them, and frame them the right way, you can get one that gives you something below your minimum expectation. Oy.
- ZC - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:10 am:
VanillaMan, but not all polling is designed to spin the media. And good internal polling isn’t designed just to make the campaign feel good about itself. That’s one expensive form of self-gratification.
That said 3 pts is absolutely within the margin of error, so this isn’t a “lead” in any meaningful sense. I’d have rather have it than 6 pts behind, though.
- Turner - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:13 am:
==When a Dem poll paid by the Democratic nominee shows only a 3 point lead, I’d be ill.==
Let’s see what Roskam puts out. Oh wait…
Look at it this way Vanilla Man, if Roskam does lose, your Knight in Shining Armour Jeanne Ives has a shot to run for Congress. This is her district after all.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:16 am:
Pay no attention to the poll. A Guy walks the sixth, and every district, 24/7/365 and he said Roskam is a winner by double digits.
Which means by 10 points or more.
- HawkeyeForEver - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:34 am:
Those results are similar to the findings from the New York Times/Siena College poll from Sept. 4-Sept. 6: (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il06-1.html). That poll was 45% Roskam, 44% Casten, 11% undecided and had Roskam at 36% favorable and 38% unfavorable. Given the margins of error, they could be measuring an unchanged population.
That said, there is certainly not evidence that Roskam’s attacks on Casten are having a substantial impact on Roskam’s behalf. My personal take is that most people are so fed up with attack ads that “going negative” can actually backfire and create negative feelings toward the attacker. It seems absurd to me that Roskam is trying to paint a political outsider like Casten as a “shady politician,” but perhaps he doesn’t have any better arrows in his quiver.
- Duopoly - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 10:35 am:
The polls usually overestimate the Dem vote. Maybe people answer Casten because they’re embarrassed that they’re voting for Roskam, as they should be.
- West Sider - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 11:11 am:
And Roskam’s internals? *Crickets chirp* Tells you all you need to know.
- Hamlet's Ghost - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 11:15 am:
Team Roskam has raised and spent millions of dollars and this is the best they can do?
#Sad
. . . “Everyone knows this race is close, but as 6th district voters learn about Sean Casten’s alliance with Mike Madigan to oppose the property tax freeze and repeal the recent middle-class tax cuts, that he was sued by his own investors for mismanagement, and that he lobbied for special tax credits and taxpayer subsidies to prop up his own businesses, we are confident voters will stick with Peter Roskam who has been an effective leader for Illinois and is rated as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress,” Roskam campaign spokeswoman Veronica Vera said in a statement. . . .
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 11:18 am:
Four feet high…and risin’…
- A guy - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 11:34 am:
==And good internal polling…===
When you send a press release, it’s not internal polling anymore, now is it?
- A guy - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 11:36 am:
==Pay no attention to the poll. A Guy walks the sixth, and every district, 24/7/365 and he said Roskam is a winner by double digits.==
Not every district Sling. I’m still on the record for 10 points. I wouldn’t pay much attention to any poll that didn’t have an ounce of independence to it. Would you?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 11:46 am:
–I wouldn’t pay much attention to any poll that didn’t have an ounce of independence to it. Would you?–
So politicians shouldn’t pay attention to their own internal polls?
- A guy - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 12:46 pm:
==So politicians shouldn’t pay attention to their own internal polls?==
Sure they should. When they share internal polls in a press release, it’s something different than news. But, carry on. Believe what you wish to.
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 12:58 pm:
If signs could vote, Casten would win. In this household Roskam’s negative ads are backfiring.
But I am unusual in that I have worked with green energy and been a registered federal lobbyist.
- Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 19, 18 @ 1:41 pm:
==Would you?==
Absolutely. It’s data. And internal polls are often of higher quality than media polls. Now, a campaign certainly only releases internals for a reason- to push or rebut a narrative, and so you’ve got to account for that. But once you account for that, you’re only doing yourself a disservice if you ignore internal polls.